Analysis of company shares

Analysis of the financial position of the world's biggest companies. Evaluation of the changes in the prices of their securities in the short and long term. Identify the factors that influence their dynamics. Forecasting profit without option price.

Рубрика Финансы, деньги и налоги
Вид статья
Язык английский
Дата добавления 16.06.2014
Размер файла 868,7 K

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1. General electric

Fundamental Analysis

General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products. It serves customers in more than 100 countries. Effective January 28, 2011, it held a 49% interest in a media company that includes the NBC Universal businesses. Its segments include Energy Infrastructure, Aviation, Healthcare, Transportation, and GE Capital. Effective January, 2011, it reorganized the Technology Infrastructure segment into three segments: Aviation, Healthcare and Transportation. In April 2014, the Company's GE Healthcare acquired CHCA Computer Systems Inc.

GE has shown great earnings in the first quarter of this year Wallstreet PR (April 21, 2014), . General Electric has had an amazing start, and if this continues, then the company will have something to celebrate for. General Electric has taken the road forward, and there's more to come. It remains to be seen whether GE succeeds in its quest for progress or comes to a halt. GE also remains bullish about China despite economic slowdown. GE expects that China will be "a good source of growth" in 2014 despite increasing concerns about the country economy. GE forecast that it will "grow faster than the Chinese economy," as it serves markets that are priorities for the government.

Table 1

Open

High

Low

Price

Change

26.57

26.66

26.39

26.44

-0.14

Prev. Close

Volume

Bid

Ask

Time

26.42

27545224

2014-04-23 15:59:55

Table 2

Year High

27.94

Year High Date

2014-01-02

Year Low

24.32

Year Low Date

2014-02-03

52wk High

28.09

52wk High Date

2013-12-31

52wk Low

21.65

52wk Low Date

2013-04-24

Year End Close

20.99

Average Volume

31,520,154

Shares Outstanding

10,486,300

Short Interest

73,268,120

% Institutional

57.8

Assets

420,600M

Liabilities

554,600M

Beta

1.45

Volatility

13.67

Table 3. Technical Analysis (* The starting date of setting : April.8 )

2-1, 1 month analysis

The short term trend has been UP since Apr 17rd, 2014 at 26.450000

2-2, 3 month analysis

The intermediate term trend has been UP since Mar 6th, 2014 at 26.040000

2-3, 1 year analysis

The long term trend has been UP since Feb 3rd, 2014 at 24.900000

Table 4. Forecasting profit without option price : (28.00-27.00)*1000= $1,000

NAME

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

General Electric

USD ($)

USA

26.62

Bullish

0.25

1000

CALL

27

13.67

(27-26.62) *1000 =380

3 month

28

2. Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd

1. Fundamental Analysis

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. mainly engaged in the production of consumer electronic products. It operates in two divisions: DMC division, which is divided into consumer electronics and information technology & mobile communications businesses, as well as DS division, which is divided into semiconductor and liquid crystal display (LCD) businesses. Its CE business engages in the production of color televisions, monitors, air conditioners, refrigerators and others. Its IM business engages in the production of printers, computers, handhold phones such as feature phones, smart phones and others, and network systems, among others. Its semiconductor business engages in the production of semiconductors, such as memories, system large scale integrated circuits and others. Its LCD business engages in the production of thin film transistor LCDs and organic light-emitting diodes, among others.

On Apr 14, 2014, Samsung Electronics Co had a successful opening weekend for the Galaxy S5. The S5 launched globally on April 11th in over 100 countries. It said that the S5 sold better than last year's S4 opening weekend, and that there was a high demand for the S5 in countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and France, where it is especially popular because it is resistant to sand and dust damage.

On Apr 17, 2014, Samsung Electronics Co said that it would license its latest chip manufacturing technology to U.S. firm Global Foundries, a move that would help it expand production as it vies the world's biggest maker of memory chips, wants to grow its foundry chip manufacturing and mobile processing chips business to match rising demand from smartphone makers.

Drawing 1

Table 5. Technical Analysis (* The starting date of setting : April.8 )

2-1, 1 month analysis

The short term trend has been UP since Apr 26rd, 2014.

The most current trend arrow is pointing upwards showing that on a 1 month basis the trend is currently up.

2-2, 3 month analysis

The intermediate term trend has been UP since Mar 6th, 2014

2-3, 1 year analysis

The long term trend has been UP since Feb 3rd, 2014

The share price has found support as the green support line and is now moving in the direction of the red resistance line showing that on a year basis the trend in currently up.

Table 6. Forecasting profit without option price: (1,450,000-1,400,000)*100=KRW 5,000,000 ($4833.25)

NAME

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

Samsung electronic

KRW

South korea

1,380,000 (1,333.98 USD)

Bullish

2.5

100

CALL

1,400,000

14.25

(1400000-1380000) *100 =2,000,000

3 month

1,450,000

3. The Coca Cola Company

1. Fundamental Analysis

The Coca-Cola Company is a beverage company. The Company owns or licenses and markets more than 500 nonalcoholic beverage brands, primarily sparkling beverages but also a variety of still beverages, such as waters, enhanced waters, juices and juice drinks, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, and energy and sports drinks. It owns and markets a range of nonalcoholic sparkling beverage brands, which includes Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. The Company's segments include Eurasia and Africa, Europe, Latin America, North America, Pacific, Bottling Investments and Corporate. In January 2013, Sacramento Coca-Cola Bottling Company announced that it had been acquired by the Company.

Coke enjoyed strong cash flow in the first three months of 2014. The company generated $1.1 billion in cash from operations from $1.6 billion in net income. This compares favorably to the $480 million of operating cash flow generated from $1.8 billion in net income during the same period in 2013. CFO Gary Fayard cited efficient management of working capital as a primary driver of the increased cash flow. If you look at last year's statement of cash flows for the period, you'll see changes in working capital items created the greatest drag on operational cash flow. Coca-Cola's largest pension plan is now fully funded, which should also have a positive impact on cash for the rest of the year: Coke's contributions to its pension plans in 2012 and 2013 totaled $1.1 billion and $640 million, respectively.

Shares of Coca-Cola are jumping today, while an odd combination trade is designed to profit from volatility. KO is up 3.51 percent to $40.09 better-than-expected quarterly results. This takes the stock back up to where it was at the start of 2014. It had fallen as low as $37 after the last earnings in February.

Table 7. Technical Analysis (* The starting date of setting : April.8 )

2-1, 1 month analysis

The short term trend has been UP since Apr. 14rd, 2014

2-2, 3 month analysis

The intermediate term trend has been UP since Feb 20th, 2014

2-3, 1 year analysis

The long term trend has been UP since Feb 20th, 2014

Drawing 2

Table 8. Forecasting profit without option price : (43.00-42.00)*1000 = $1,000

NAME

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

The Coca-Cola Co.

USD ($)

USA

41.01

Bullish

0.25

1000

CALL

42

15.46

(42-41.01) *1000 =990

3 month

43

4. GMK Noril'skiy nikel' OAO

GMK Noril'skiy nikel' OAO (Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel OJSC or MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC) is a Russia-based company engaged in the exploration, extraction, refining and sale of base and precious metals. The Company is a producer of nickel and palladium and a producer of platinum and copper. It also produces various by-products, such as cobalt, chromium, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium and sulfur. The Company's production facilities are located in Taimyr and Kola peninsulas of the Russian Federation, Australia, Botswana, Finland and South African Republic. It has subsidiaries in the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, the United States, Hong Kong and China. In March 2013, the Company increased its stake in Noril'skgazprom OAO from 40.48% to 56.17%, as well as acquired a 100% stake in Corvest Ltd.

Fundamental analyze

On the background of strong financial results for 2013 and to improve the prospects of basic metals market we think the price will be up.

Table 9. Technical analyze

Indicators

RSI

MACD

Bollinger Bands

Parabolic

1 Year

neutral

buy

sell

buy

3 Month

neutral

neutral

sell

buy

1 Month

neutral

neutral

neutral

sell

In conclusion, now price is 18.00 $; on positive forecasts by fundamental analysis and partly by the technical analysis (indicators MACD and Parabolic point to growth), we expect growth of securities "Norilsk Nickel" from $18 to $ 20 dollars.

Table 10.

NAME

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

GMK Noril'skiy nikel' OAO

USD($)

Russia

18.00

buy

7.5%

1000

CALL

18.00

26%

2.187*1000=2187

90 days

20.00

Table 11. Forecasting profit without option price: (20.00-18.00) *1000 =2000 ($). (London stock exchange )

1 Year Period The long-term trend has been UP from Augst, 2013.

3 Month Period trend has been clear UP

1 Month Period Trend is UP

5. VTB Bank OAO (VTB Bank OJSC)

VTB Bank OAO (VTB Bank OJSC) is a Russia-based company, which is engaged in commercial banking sector. The Company's services include deposit taking and commercial lending, support of clients' export/import transactions, foreign exchange, securities trading, and trading in derivative instruments. The Company offers services to its retail and corporate customers in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, Europe, Asia and Africa. The Company operates on the territory of the Russian Federation and in over 20 countries, through the network of numerous banks and financial companies. In March 2013, the Company sold its whole stake of 19% in Energokompleks OAO and acquired a 100% stake of Tele2 Russia. On November 1, 2013, the Company completed merger of TransKreditBank OAO into VTB24.

Fundamental analyze

Shares of VTB Group managed over the past month and a half to a greater extent (17%) to compensate for the March crash. Crash Course 2.66 to 1.6 $ was partly won back market to the current 2.20$. At equal with Sberbank (the largest bank in Russia) collapse of quotations by 24% VTB were more dynamic and attractive to traders. We think that in May 2014 should be expected to attempt to withdrawal of VTB for February values 2.45-2.60.

Table 12 Technical analyze

Indicators

RSI

MACD

Bollinger Bands

Parabolic

1 Year

buy

neutral

neutral

neutral

3 Month

buy

neutral

neutral

neutral

1 Month

neutral

neutral

neutral

neutral

In conclusion: Price on April 28 is 2.08; we expect: in the end of July VTB shares price will increase; on the basis of technical analysis only indicator RSI indicates the growth, others not submit clear signals. As it is known, after the flat active movement usually follows. In the long term trend prerequisites of the fundamental analysis also indicates growth. We expect the level of $ 3.0.

Table 13

Name

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

VTB Bank OAO

USD($)

Russia

2.08

buy

7.5%

1000

CALL

2.20

25

0.825* 1000=825

3 month

3.00

Table 14 Forecasting profit without option price: (3.00-2.20) *1000 =800 (London Stock Exchange)

1 Year Period

The long-term trend has been UP from mid of March, 2014.

In the long term, according to the Fibonacci levels, we expect a rebound down from the resistance level of 3.0.

3 Month Period trend has been UP from March 12th, 2014 and now trend is flat. In the shorter term, we expect price growth in the area mark 2.8 - resistance level.

1 Month Period trend is flat

6. Uralkaliy OAO (Uralkali OJSC)

Uralkaliy OAO (Uralkali OJSC) is a Russia-based company, which is engaged in the chemical industry. The Company specializes in the production of potash fertilizers. Its product portfolio comprises pink muriate of potash (PMOP), white muriate of potash (WMOP) and granular (GMOP). The Company is active through representative offices, located in Moscow and Beijing, as well as numerous subsidiaries, located countrywide and in Panama, Belarus, Singapore, Brazil and others. Uralkaliy OAO operates on the potassium and magnesium deposits located in Berezniki, Perm and Saint Petersburg. Its production assets include seven plants and five mines. Uralkaliy OAO sells its products domestically, as well as abroad in over 40 countries, including the United States, China, Brazil, India and South-East Asia, among others.

Fundamental analyze

Almost 60% of the shares are in free circulation, which means that the fundamental factors have a strong influence on the share price. Ukrainian news, new sanctions against Russia, of course, does not make for a positive price growth.

Table 15 Technical analyze

Indicators

RSI

MACD

Bollinger Bands

Parabolic

1 Year

oversold

neutral

neutral

sell

3 Month

neutral

oversold

buy

sell

1 Month

oversold

oversold

neutral

sell

In conclusion, from the point of view of technical analysis ambiguity is present in the market but the fundamentals confirm the fact that it is too early to buy. Therefore expect a decrease in the area of $ 19.

Table 16

Name

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

Uralkaliy OAO

USD($)

Russia

21.01

sell

7.5%

1000

PUT

22.00

25%

2.885*1000=2885

90 days

19.00

Table 17 Forecasting profit without option price: (22.00-19.00) *1000 =3000 ($).

1 Year Period The long-term trend has been DOWN from May, 2013.

3 Month Period trend has been DOWN from the mid of April.

1 Month Period Trend is flat

7. Aeroflex Holding Corp. (Aeroflex Holding)

Aeroflex Holding Corp. (Aeroflex Holding) is a provider of radio frequency (RF) and microwave integrated circuits, components and systems used in the design, development and maintenance of wireless communication systems. The Company's solutions include microelectronic components and test and measurement equipment used by companies in the space, avionics and defense; commercial wireless communications, and medical and other markets. Its products include a range of RF, microwave and millimeter wave microelectronic components, integrated circuits (ICs), and analog and mixed-signal devices. It also manufactures a range of RF and microwave wireless radio and avionics test equipment and solutions particularly for the wireless, avionics and radio test markets. The Company operates in two segments: Aeroflex Microelectronics Solutions (AMS) and Aeroflex Test Solutions (ATS). In August 2010, it acquired Advanced Control Components. In September 2013, the Company announced the sale of its Aeroflex Test Equipment Services (ATES) business to Trescal Limited. In February 2014, Aeroflex Holding Corp announced the acquisition of Shenick Network Systems.

Fundamental analyze

Aeroflot shares since the beginning of the year grew by 56%, and the company became one of the leaders in the growth of quotations in December. Such a sharp increase in the value of securities is explained by the strong statements for the 3rd quarter 2013 IFRS. Now pricies are trading at its original highs.

Table 18 Technical analyze

Indicators

RSI

MACD

Bollinger Bands

Parabolic

1 Year

oversold

sell

neutral

sell

3 Month

oversold

sell

neutral

sell

1 Month

oversold

neutral

neutral

sell

In conclusion, price 7.70; based on technical and fundamental analysis, we expect continued downward movement of prices and the value of 7.00.

Table 19

Name

Currency

Country

Price on 24.04.14

Positon on 24.04.14

Interest rate

Number of shares

Option position

Strike price

Volatility

Option price: call

Dura-tion

Expected price

Aeroflex Holding Corp.

USD($)

Russia

7.70

sell

7.5%

1000

PUT

8.00

24%

1.136*1000=1136

90 days

6.8

financial price profit

Table 20 Forecasting profit without option price: (8.00-6.80) *1000 =1200 (New York Stock Exchange)

1 Year Period

The long-term trend has been DOWN from mid of March, 2014.

We can see figure of technical analyses “head&shoulders” that point on future down trend.

3 Month Period

trend has been DOWN from March 26th, 2014.

In the shorter term, we expect price growth in the area mark 6.8-7.0 - resistance level and min of February.

1 Month Period

Trend is DOWN

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