Development of baltic-mediterranean geopolitical strategy as continuation of stepan rudnytskiy’s ideas

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DEVELOPMENT OF BALTIC-MEDITERRANEAN GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGY AS CONTINUATION OF STEPAN RUDNYTSKIY'S IDEAS

Serhiy Sonko, Yuriy Kyselov

It is marked that the various questions related to the eurointegration geopolitical vector of Ukraine deserve serious and all-round scientific researches. It is stressed that through the unprincipled policy of the leading West-European states in relation to Ukraine optimal strategy for our state is development by it the Baltic-Black sea (in a prospect - Baltic-Mediterranean) geopolitical doctrine founded almost one hundred years ago by the academician Stepan Rudnytskiy.

Keywords: geopolitics, doctrine, expansion, vector, Baltic-Mediterranean axis.

ukraine russian intervention

Сергій Сонько, Юрій Кисельов. Розвиток балтійсько-середземноморської геополітичної доктрини як продовження ідей Степана Рудницького. Відзначено, що різноманітні питання, пов'язані з євроінтеграційним геополітичним вектором України, потребують серйозних і всебічних наукових досліджень. Наголошено, що через безпринципну політику провідних західноєвропейських держав щодо України оптимальною стратегією для нашої держави є розвиток нею балтійсько-чорноморської (в перспективі - балтійсько-середземноморської) геополітичної доктрини, заснованої майже сто років тому академіком Степаном Рудницьким.

Ключові слова: геополітика, доктрина, експансія, вектор, балтійсько-середземноморська вісь.

Сергей Сонько, Юрий Киселёв. Развитие балтийско-средиземноморской геополитической доктрины как продолжение идей Степана Рудницкого. Отмечено, что различные вопросы, связанные с евроинтеграционным геополитическим вектором Украины, требуют серьёзных и всесторонних научных исследований. Обращено внимание на то, что из-за беспринципной политики ведущих западноевропейских государств касательно Украины оптимальной стратегией для нашего государства является развитие ею балтийско-черноморской (в перспективе - балтийско-средиземноморской) геополитической доктрины, основанной почти сто лет назад академиком Степаном Рудницким.

Ключевые слова: геополитика, доктрина, экспансия, вектор, балтийско-средиземноморская ось.

Rising of a problem and it's actuality. Almost one hundred years ago it was by the first set question of international integration of centraleuropian region under that we understand a fragment of the Earth space located between the Baltic and Black seas. Sign that our compatriot, founder of Ukrainian national geography and geopolitics, did it academician Stepan Rudnytskiy. Exactly in his work «Ukrainian issue viewed from position of political geography», edited soon after disintegration of the Austro-Hungary and Russian empires, a Baltic-Black sea doctrine which envisaged the close collaboration of countries and nations of corresponding meridional axis is reasonable [3]. To the number of these countries S. Rudnytskiy included foremost Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine. [3, p. 137]. Also to the Baltic-Black sea axis he took Donschyna, Kuban, North Caucasus, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan [3, p. 134].

After the defeat of Ukrainian national liberation revolution 1918-21, and especially - after Second World War, when most of the central European countries got under actual control of the USSR, the marked doctrine lost it's actuality on great while. It went out on an order-paper again after falling of the communist modes in these countries and further renewal of independence of Ukraine and Baltic countries. In the authors view, this doctrine remains actual and now in connection with the newest aggression of Russia in relation to Ukraine and her threats to the states of Baltic.

Review of the last publications. In the newest time a Baltic-Black sea geopolitical doctrine is analysed, adapting it to the calls of present time, the prominent Ukrainian scientists are social geographers, in particular Oleh Shabliy [6], Myroslav Dnistryanskiy [1], Oleksandr Topchiev [5]. The idea of Baltic-Black sea collaboration found a reflection and in the program of one of leading Ukrainian political parties of 1990^th [2]. To our opinion, today the problem of realization of this idea not only is not taken off from a notice, it even deepens in the context of transformation of Baltic-Black sea doctrine in Baltic-Mediterranean, what one of authors already marked about [4].

The aim of the article is a ground of actuality for Ukraine of Baltic-Black sea geopolitical doctrine and necessity of her transformation in Baltic-Mediterranean.

Tasks to the article are:

- an analysis of new geopolitical situation is in the world that appears as a result of Russian intervention to Ukraine;

- a lineation of the real and potential role of the USA and European Union is in the geopolitical fate of Ukraine;

- a ground of actuality of submeridional geopolitical vector is for Ukraine;

- suggestion of near-term state measures that had to make economic basis of the future Baltic-Mediterranean axis;

- determination of reference composition of countries that can enter the Baltic-Mediterranean intergovernmental union.

Exposition of basic material. Development of geopolitical situation during the last years (in particular, from 2009 - time of beginning of presidency of Barack Obama in the USA) is characterized by certain the weakening of influence of forces of NATO in Europe at the simultaneous increase of presence of Russia (as the natural gas and infrastructure related to him and, in the end, direct military expansion exported by her on territory of Ukraine) in this subcontinent. Emphasis of administration of the USA on the mainly problems of domestic policy combined with the underestimation of geopolitical role of Putin Russia - to «hearthlend» of Eurasia, that, to our opinion, became one of reasons, that allowed to Moscow to violate both the Budapest memorandum and bases of world order, set after Second world war, in general. In our view, wars that Russia conducts in Eurasia (Moldova, Caucasus, Ukraine, Syria and to be continued) can become pre-conditions of full-scale Third World War. Taking into account the presence of geopolitical connection between events in Ukraine and Syria, we undertake boldness to assert that just the same war (but in the hybrid kind hidden) actually lasts already.

Thus, time came for realization already of undeniable today truth, that in ХХІ century of not «world» wars it is not, and that even an ocean (if to take into consideration of the USA) fundamentally is not defense and substantial obstacle for the newest world aggressor. To the greatest regret, already once again in history exactly Ukraine and Ukrainians given on profanation to the apologists and practices of Russian euroasision became a «living shield» for all Europe against Moscow expansion and final «argument» for Americans, if to make sure as in all yet existence of Empire of Evil (its named mr. R. Reagan, and what tested to the «half-decay», but was not destroyed in 1991) and to realize that the ocean of safety does not guarantee even.

But Ukrainians do not have a time to expect both the credible decisive pro-ukrainian steps of president of the USA Donald Trump and on rallying of Europe round the idea of isolation of this empire. Becomes late, because the Kremlin ideas of defragmentation of Ukraine too deeply staggered brains not only 80% of the Russian citizens but also greater part of Ukrainians that mentally until now as though are in Soviet Union.

Does indecisive position of the European concord headed to the paragraphs of Merkel, Olland and others, cause an appropriate question - or is a rescue for Ukraine, how the states, following the European geopolitical vector with the from time immemorial fight of Rhymland and Heartland? On this question an answer is necessary to be searched already today, and we will dare to express eurosceptical moods. And by reason that is why already mentioned by us higher the Budapest memorandum. The West-European states actually made treason to Ukraine now, that is why there is not a guarantee in relation to treasons in the future. Most interestingly, that Poland and Baltics (neighbours of Russia of first-order) far better from West-Europeans (and, the anymore, Americans) understand the danger of existence of Empire of Evil. But all empires that only existed in history disintegrated. Historically appropriate will be - in more near or further prospect - and falling of Russian empire. The anymore, that the first signs of such disintegration, forecast in the August (in 2016) publication of one of authors [4], already acquire force [7].

In opinion of authors, the main sublatitudinal Eurasian axis along that there were all main geopolitical events of a few last centuries gives the first signs of the decline, yielding to a mestome the meridional geopolitical relations. Similar transformations happened already, and an old meridional axis can exemplify «from Varangian in Greeks», that at one time laid down an alternative to the time immemorial Baltic-Black sea «corridor» that were a nomad the different Asian hordes by centuries.

Such meridional geopolitical approach presently exactly topically, as periodic «wars with incorrect» in reply to «cross hikes» (and that, and the second is the military constituent of functioning of the sublatitudinal Eurasian axis) nothing kind for civilization development humanity is not carried. Such «wars» and «hikes» last and today, but they are carefully «disguised» in oil prices, «antinuclear approvals» (in relation to Iran or North Korea), «fight for democracy» and all more scale acts of terrorism of Islamists. Thus constantly to mummify a sublatitudinal geopolitical axis in its old Moscowcentrical mode understanding the newest «silk ways», on deep persuasion of authors, having no prospects.

Being on the difficult crossing, at least, two (or and three) geopolitical worlds, Ukraine will always be in the danger of finding out on the territory of relations between stormy, since earliest times nomadic Asia and progressive, but, as turn out, by insidious Europe. Unfortunately, traditions of finding out of such relations already during many centuries, except a military way, alternatives do not have. But, in tradition of meridional geopolitical vector more civilized trade-logistic relations prevail between countries. As an example, will mark that bellicose vikings (in the north) and no less bellicose turks (on a south), already a long ago losing former pressing forward, now are one of the best in the world automakers and providers of services in industry of tourism and hotel-restaurant business.

We consider that the objective signs of gradual actualization of the above-mentioned submeridional vector appeared today.

Firstly is a slow, gradual, but sure self-destruction of Empire of Evil, that once again lines up a «ferrous curtain». By a certificate is there, in particular, abandonment it from East-Asian and Near-Eastern tourist markets (through the operations «successfully» conducted by the special services with injury of passenger airplanes), and financing of acts of terrorism in the European countries, and insolvency (through escape of most Nobel laureates to the West) to develop own high-tech.

Secondly is a presence in both the North and on the South of this axis (from the Persian bay by tankers in Mediterranean) of beds of oil and gas, that will replace successfully, essentially, an only and non-alternative for Russia export product. Because this empire not able to produce smart phones, modern cars and to develop the operating systems, but the anymore are hydrogen engines, on that Scandinavians that will be able in the near time in general to give up the use of oil ride already. To our opinion, the just the same newest technological achievements are a deserving reference-point for modern Ukraine.

Thirdly - a civilization «conflict more deepens between television and refrigerator». In Empire of Evil every day from television damn the American, European, Asian «imperialists», and but these «curses» collapse on the Russian streets the mainly imported cars ride that. By the way, televisions and refrigerators are in this empire, we know as far as, also, mainly, not «Record» and not «Saratov». Thus, disintegration of Empire of Evil is in the hands of those its citizens, that is intellectually able independently to get to know a true. Actually, from here and an urgent necessity to occupy the brains of these citizens of Novorossia swims out, by Crimea, Turkey, Syria and other «hot points». But as events testify in Russia on March, 26, 2017, this country (and foremost her young people) spill gradually.

From resulted three above enumerated tendencies and arguments a meridional geopolitical vector that it is necessary in every way to support as a Baltic-Black sea doctrine to Ukraine appears. At least, it is necessary to activate on the way of reformatting of Eurasian space on the benefit.

It is important to mark that «welfare» in Empire of Evil was provided (and provides until now) by pitiless exploitation of natural rent (mining). Resources on a planet are closed, and countries that count only on them appear very vulnerable (that is why there is a modern dynamics of oil price confirmations).

Consequently, there are two types of geopolitical logic.

First - within the limits of former large country all was general and it is «scientifically reasonable» from positions of the economic districting. Even transmission of large territories from one allied republic to other did not matter. And the catchment basin of Dnipro belonged to «new historical community - soviet people».

Second - there is the independent state Ukraine that is the universally recognized international legal subject, and the people of that (according to Constitution) can dispose of the natural resources.

In accordance with the first type of logic, the primary objective of military operations on Donbas is for Russia of not coal, not Novorisia and even not «Russkiy Mir», and, first of all, land «corridor» to Crimea (it at the beginning). A bridge through the Kerch channel built will not be, it only fake for an international concord, but foremost - for own people. Because there is not a necessity to inlay additional money in building (very doubtful from the point of view of natural dangers), as they are already inlaid in an armament. As known, an army must selfpyement, the anymore, that to retain her becomes all heavier through approvals of international concord.

In accordance with the second type of logic, nature of Ukraine is priceless treasure, foremost, for next generations. Thus, renewal and maintenance of unique landscapes are the absolute, law of people, that, as authors hope, will be able to realize him within the limits of future administrative-territorial reform, envisaged by Constitution. In particular, during the last three years of Russian occupation of Crimea on collections of rural communities in the villages of Lower Podniprovya all the appeals to down the Kakhovka storage pool and renew Velyky Luh (the Large Meadow) are more often heard.

The chain of events described higher after beginning of active expansionist policy of Russia in a geopolitical context means that topically, as development of Baltic-Black sea doctrine, ground spatially of more wide, Baltic-Mediterranean, geopolitical doctrine. For this purpose to the Ukrainian state, at least - at the beginning - at regional level, it is necessary to carry out the row of measures, including:

1. Adhering to Constitution, not to interfere with own people to realize an own right on using natural resources, in particular to down the Kakhovka storage pool and renew Velyky Luh (the Large Meadow).

2. To work out and carry out the project of building of the Baltic-Azov-Black sea navigable channel with the corresponding deepening of north part of bay Syvash and nearport of land part to the north from Armyansk on Ukrainian territory.

3. More active to attract investments in development of port and transport infrastructure of the Black Sea coast of the Mykolayiv, Odesa and Kherson regions.

It is pleasant to realize that some of forecast in more early publications [4] measures (in particular ceiling of the North-Crimean channel) are already carried out.

Among many other measures marked higher will help gradually to change a main geopolitical vector from latitudinal on meridional, finally, translating in the concretely-territorial measuring (as a Baltic-Black sea, in future - the Baltic-Mediterranean union) the centuries-old is uncertain transfrontal balancing of Ukraine between stormy nomadic East and the civilized West. Composition of countries of such union, to our opinion, must be extended comparatively with that, how it was presented by academic. S. Rudnytskiy, in connection with that the foreign-policy orientation of some countries (in particular, to Poland) became almost for one hundred years more pro-ukrainian, and also with that row of countries of Central Asia and North Africa economically integrated to the Baltic-Mediterranean axis. On the whole, the entire Scandinavian countries, Ukraine, Belarus (from the political point of view, including of her to such union - only on the right to time), Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, former Yugoslavian countries, Greece, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, are now included in this axis. With development of trade-logistic relations and in the process of future inevitable disintegration of Empire of Evil in a prospect to outlined by us higher Armenia, Kazakhstan, some countries of Central Asia, Near and North Africa East, can be attached an union.

Conclusions. To our opinion, for the Ukrainian state came the time to convert by a peaceful way in the real geopolitical capital a conscience and diligence of own people. Because it appeared many habitants of fake of the Donbas pseudorepublics and Crimea of almost centenary term not enough, to understand, that exactly due to the hard-working Ukrainian people on the mentioned peninsula is water, electricity and cheap foods and that in the from time immemorial fight of refrigerator against television a refrigerator always wins. And that the population of so-called «DPR» and «LPR» with time only will strengthen intensity of journeys through a sanitary border to Large Ukraine for cheap foods, understanding, finally, that agro- and bioresources are a capital far more valuable, than resources are mineral.

Поряд з прагненням України до розбудови Балтійсько-Середземноморського геополітичного простору можливим вирішенням внутрішньої проблеми може бути побудова відносин з ОРДЛО подібно до відносин Ізраїлю з Палестинською автономією. Для цього лише необхідно рішенням Верховної Ради надати відповідний статус окупованим районам Донбасу, звівши після цього 6-метрову стіну. Щось на зразок: «Російська автономна республіка в складі України». Напевне, наявність такої автономії призупинить брехливу риторику щодо утискання українською владою російськомовного населення і дозволить цьому «приниженому» населенню обирати місце проживання за 6-метрової стіною.

Геополітичні процеси йдуть об'єктивно, свідченням чого є нещодавна блокада ОРДЛО (як прообраз майбутньої стіни). Важливо вчасно помітити головні тенденції і не спізнитись з рішеннями.

Автори можуть помилятись, але на їх думку це допоможе сильно уповільнити (а згодом і спинити) широтні геополітичні процеси, натомість давши місце меридіональним.

Along with the desire of Ukraine to the construction of the Baltic-Mediterranean geopolitical space of possible solution of the inner problem can be building relationships with ORDLO like the relations of Israel with the Palestinian autonomy. This requires only the decision of the Verkhovna Rada to provide the appropriate status of the occupied areas of Donbass, reducing the 6-foot wall after. Something like: "the Russian Autonomous Republic within Ukraine." Probably, the presence of such autonomy will suspend the false rhetoric about the oppression of the Ukrainian authorities to the Russian-speaking population and allow this "debased" population to choose their place of residence for the 6-metre-high wall.

Geopolitical processes are objective, as evidenced by the recent blockade ORDLO (as the prototype of the future of the wall). It is important to notice the main tendencies and not be late. The authors may be wrong, but they think it will help much to slow (and eventually stop) the latitudinal geopolitical processes, instead giving the place meridonalis.

REFERENCES

1. Dnistryansky M.S. Geopolitical doctrines and approaches; the critical analysis of the methodology. - Lviv: Publishing centre of the Ivan Franko Lviv National University, 2003. - 114 p.

2. People's Movement of Ukraine: documents and materials. - K. : Sofiya Publishing centre, 1992. - 50 p.

3. Rudnytsky S. The Ukrainian action from the point of view of the political geography. - Berlin: Ukrayinske Slovo, 1923. - 293 p.

4. Sonko S.P. The Baltic and Mediterranean geopolitical doctrine and the decline of the Russian eurasianism / Scientific bulletin of the Kherson State university / Kherson State university; Helvetica Publishing house. - Kherson, 2016. - P. 74-77.

5. Topchiyev O.H. Fundamentals of the human geography. - Odesa: Astroprynt, 2009. - 472 p.

6. Shabliy O.I. Human geography: theory, history, Ukrainian studies. - Lviv: Publishing centre of the Ivan Franko Lviv National University, 2001. - 744 p.

7.http://newmirror.ru/blog/43940763473/Rossiya-probuzhdayetsya?utm_campaign=transit&utm_source=main&utm_medium=page_7&domain=mirtesen.ru&paid=1&pad=1

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