National security of ukraine in terms of international trade and economic cooperation: global hazards and their classification

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National academy of the security service of Ukraine

National security of ukraine in terms of international trade and economic cooperation: global hazards and their classification

Artiukhova N.O., PhD in Law,

assistant professor

Abstract

In the article, the concepts of "threats", "challenges" and "risks" in terms of promoting state interests in the process of international trade and economic cooperation of Ukraine are defined and their classification is offered.

Key words: threats, challenges, risks, international trade and economic cooperation, state interests, national security.

Introduction

At the present stage of human development, international cooperation in various spheres of social relations becomes global and therefore gives new opportunities for economic development, scientific and technological progress, socio-cultural diversification, etc. At the same time, not all the participating countries benefit equally from such relationships, which contributes to further economic disparity both between countries and within them. In this context, in terms of growing openness of the Ukrainian economy and the increased influence of negative external economic factors, the issue of identifying and classifying hazards, namely threats, risks and challenges to national security in the field of international trade and economic cooperation (hereinafter - ITEC) of Ukraine, as well as searching for the ways to prevent and counteract them, seems urgent and necessary.

Analysis of recent research and publications. Threats to the national security of Ukraine in various economic spheres were thoroughly researched by V. Geets, A. Kachynski, E. Libanova, V. Muntian, T. Ostashko, V. Sidenko and others. However, these researchers focused their attention mainly on the economic aspects of this issue, so nowadays in the scientific literature there is a lack of comprehensive research on threats, challenges and risks to the national security of Ukraine in the sphere of ITEC. Therefore, the goal of the paper is to analyze the relationship between the concepts of "risks", "challenges" and "threats" while supporting state interests in the sphere of ITEC of Ukraine, define them and develop their classification.

Presentation of the basic material

Due to the dynamic changes in international economic cooperation of Ukraine at the present stage, strict requirements to the organization of state interests' support in this sphere are advanced, which implies that all existing and potential hazards should be taken into account and forecasted, in order to minimize the negative consequences for national economy.

In the scientific literature on urgent issues of state and national security, more and more popular becomes the research of not only real and potential threats, but also the risks and challenges accompanying them. Thus, the representatives of the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS) of Ukraine, in their analytical report, analyze new threats and challenges for Ukraine in the international security environment [1, p. 10-12], and also identify risks for the Ukrainian economy in terms of its participation in globalization process [1, p. 21-22]. The necessity in using common terminology in the field of detection, monitoring, identification of sources and causes of threats to the national interests, hazards and challenges within the military sphere and risk assessment is also supported by the scientists from the National Defense University of Ukraine [2, p. 122124]. Problems in defining content and correlation between the categories of "threat", "risk" and "challenge" while researching the issues of safety and security of various sectors of the national economy, in particular transport, also became the subject of scientific study by the scholars of the National Academy for Public Administration under the President of Ukraine [3].

The above mentioned gives grounds to assume that today all the real and potential dangers in the most important spheres of national economic security, one of which is undoubtedly the ITEC of Ukraine, are not limited only to threats but, on the contrary, are also characterized by a number of interrelated risks and challenges that require a thorough study and analysis. This point of view is also confirmed by the provisions of the national security theory, where the challenge is defined as the aspiration of one state (group of states) to oppose another state (group of states) in the realization of national interests [4, p. 32].

For a better understanding of the essence of the problem, let us refer to the etymology of these concepts.

Dictionaries define "threat" as a possible danger, a gross, decisive promise to inflict some kind of harm, trouble, danger, hazard; possibility or inevitability of something dangerous, annoying; something that can cause any kind of evil, trouble; danger [5]. Thus, it is obvious that, in spite of a somewhat versatile dictionary interpretation, "threat" means a situation in which there is a probability of danger, violation of the normal functioning of a particular sphere, process, phenomenon, etc. The specified probability of danger is usually characterized by the concept of "risk". Risk is a conscious possibility of danger, the possibility of loss or failure in any business [6, p. 1221]. That is, the risk involves the need for choice, the uncertainty of the final result, and therefore can have both negative and positive effects. Challenge is a requirement, an encouragement to any 54 actions, relationships [6, p. 136], so "challenge" means necessary actions, the consequences of which are unpredictable.

The analysis of the above mentioned concepts shows that they are interdependent and interrelated, and therefore, can be used to characterize hazard phenomena in the sphere of ITEC, because the state's failure to respond adequately to the challenges that inevitably arise in the process of international cooperation, having previously assessed all the possible risks from one or another action / inaction can be a source of a threat to it.

Thus, "the challenges to the national security of Ukraine in the sphere of ITEC" we offer to consider as a set of circumstances, factors and actions caused by global economic, political, social and other processes that directly or indirectly influence the state of the Ukrainian ITEC and require a corresponding reaction from the state.

"Risks to the national security of Ukraine in the sphere of ITEC" can be defined as a set of potential hazards that, under certain conditions (actions / inaction), may cause threats to the sphere of ITEC of Ukraine.

And now let us outline the challenges and risks to the national security of Ukraine in the sphere of its international trade and economic cooperation at the present stage, and on the basis of the results achieved, formulate the threats caused by them, the identification, elimination and counteraction of which is the main task of the state security bodies.

In the analytical note "Strategic Partnership of Ukraine", the experts from the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine argue that "in the context of new transboundary challenges to the international security ... of utmost importance becomes building a flexible and differentiated system of relations between Ukraine and key international actors, that will meet the challenges of the globalized world and contribute to strengthening the role of our country on the world stage"[7].

In terms of legislation, the threats to the ITEC of Ukraine are partially identified in the Law of Ukraine "On the fundamentals of national security of Ukraine". Among them are: intelligence and subversive activity of foreign special services; critical dependence of the national economy on the conjuncture of external markets, low expansion rates of the domestic market; foreign capital share growth in strategic sectors of the economy that is dangerous for the economic independence of Ukraine, etc. [8].

Among the urgent threats to the national security, defined in the National Security Strategy of Ukraine [9], in terms of state interests support in the sphere of ITEC, one can consider: blocking Ukraine's efforts to counter the monopolization of strategic sectors of the national economy by Russian capital assets, dependence on monopolistic supplies of critical raw materials, energy resources; trade and economic war, etc.

Taking into consideration the above mentioned, we assume that the legislator defines the threats to the ITEC in a rather indirect and general way, without taking into account the present circumstances that cause them, in particular the risks and challenges to national security in this sphere.

Thus, we propose to distinguish between the following global challenges to the national security in the sphere of ITEC:

1) "trade wars" between countries with unfair competition in bilateral or multilateral industrial and economic relations;

2) the "deviant globalization" of the economy, which, according to American scientists, being its systemic and integral part, is at the same time a challenge to the traditional notions of wealth, poverty and progress [10];

3) transnationalization of the economy. Free foreign entrance into the Ukrainian market under the auspices of mutually beneficial cooperation, creation of TNCs (transnational corporations), FIGs (financial-industrial groups) and MNCs (multinational corporations) under the jurisdiction of highly developed countries of the world and lobbying their interests to the prejudice of the national ones, and specifically in the course of international trade and economic cooperation;

4) the military and political confrontation of countries and alliances, and as a result - the recession of international economic cooperation of Ukraine, the loss of investment attractiveness, etc.;

5) adaptation of the provisions of Ukrainian legislation, in particular referring to international trade and economic cooperation, to international requirements and standards, implementation of appropriate reforms, etc.

On the basis of the identified global challenges, we will now consider the risks to the ITEC of Ukraine associated with them. In our opinion, they are:

1) the probability of causing significant losses to domestic enterprises, industries, the state budget in the process of ITEC;

2) the spread of transborder crime in the sphere of ITEC, namely: illegal world trade operations, money laundering, illicit drug trafficking, weapons proliferation, money counterfeiting, illegal human trafficking, illicit trade of art objects, etc .;

3) uncontrolled foreign presence in the state strategic sectors (energy, banking, food industry, etc.), destruction of traditional socio-cultural values, in particular by imposing foreign goods / services in the process of international trade;

4) recession of the economic growth, reduction of foreign investment flows, etc.;

5) improper / irrational use of significant financial resources, aimed at the implementation of international standards in various areas of public relations.

It should also be noted that the overall scale of challenges and risks, both global and local (for the state security of Ukraine in the sphere of the ITEC in particular) has a tendency towards permanent modification. Thus, according to the World Economic Forum, nowadays in terms of international trade and economic cooperation there are high risks connected with unpredictable consequences of introduction of the newest technologies, application of regulatory measures, nationalization of resources, etc. [11].

Therefore, the global challenges and risks mentioned above are quite heterogeneous in origin and affect almost all spheres of public relations, and thus produce real and potential threats to the national security of Ukraine in the process of its international trade and economic cooperation. These threats, in our opinion, should be classified as follows.

By the scale of extension: global (economic expansion of the leading world military and political alliances, unequal status of Ukraine on the international scale, which complicates its ability to lead and win in the competitive struggle on the world market of goods and services); local / regional (low economic potential of the country, weakening of its economic independence, decrease of technological and industrial potential of the state); sectoral (within one or another branch of the national economy that takes part in international trade and economic cooperation); within one economic entity - a participant of economic relations in the sphere of ITEC of Ukraine. global danger international economic cooperation ukraine

By the probability of occurrence: real (threats that already exist) and potential (threats that may occur as a result of any changes / actions / inaction); regular /immanent (caused by regular conditions, reasons common to this sphere, for example world trends in production and trade, changes in foreign trade / customs legislation of partner countries, etc.) and irregular (unexpected, force majeure, can be caused by unpredictable economic, political, military and other circumstances).

By the time of occurrence: current (taking place at the present time); future (can be forecasted due to the situation analysis); retrospective (affect both foregoing, and can be reduced under the condition of exercising influence on them).

By the duration: termless (not limited to a certain period of time), term (determined for a certain period of time, namely: short-term - up to 1 year; mediumterm - 1-3 years; long-term - more than 3 years).

By the degree of predictability: predicted, unpredictable.

By the conditionality: objective (caused by unpredictable factors, natural disasters, etc.) and subjective (caused by intentional or unintentional actions / inaction of people, state and foreign (international) enterprises, etc.).

By the nature of the manifestation: short-term (those that are realized in the near future, in particular, inflation, seasonal fluctuations in prices for materials, raw materials, etc.) and long-term (realized in the longterm perspective. Among them: high level of international competition, loss of sales and supply market; lagging production technologies).

By the place of occurrence: internal (inefficient state economic policy in terms of providing competitive advantages and ensuring an adequate level of competitive capability of the country on the international scale; ineffective operation of state bodies involved in the implementation of state policy in the sphere of ITEC); external (threats caused by the confrontation of political and economic interests of countries interacting on the global scale; threats associated with unfavorable processes in the global economy (acute fluctuations in world currency rates, export rates, and indexes of stock markets, price reduction for exporting countries, etc.); expansion of foreign goods and services to strategic sectors of the domestic market; uncontrolled export of strategically important goods/raw materials, etc. in terms of the international agreements of Ukraine on trade and economic cooperation) and hybrid (threats to the national security of Ukraine in the sphere of ITEC, which are internal by the form of appearance, and external according to the source of origin. Here belong problems in the energy resources supply and transit, external support of internal military and political instability, which provoke the outflow of capital abroad and spoil the international image of Ukraine; terrorist groups operating on the territory of Ukraine under the auspices of international organizations, etc.).

By the factors that cause them and by the sphere of occurrence: terrorist (use of processes occurring in terms of ITEC as a cover for terrorist financing); political (ineffective state regulation policy in the sphere of ITEC, critical dependence of state external policy on foreign influence); economic (weakening of the state economic independence in the process of ITEC, pushing out from the international markets, limitation of access to advanced technologies, the usage of means of pressure against Ukraine by the partner countries in order to protect their investors, etc., the usage of trade and economic instruments by the partner countries to promote their interests to the detriment of Ukraine); normative and legal (imperfection of the state system of normative and legal regulation in terms of protecting domestic enterprises/structures involved in ITEC); social (the dominance of personal interests over national priorities in the sphere of ITEC of Ukraine; corruption within government and law enforcement structures that implement the state ITEC policy; the loss of national intelligent potential as a result of increased labor migration, enticement (also known as headhunting) of highly skilled labor force by foreign companies in the process of ITEC; further development of illegal migration, etc.); logistical (imposing obsolete equipment, poor quality goods/services in the process of ITEC, etc.); ecological (placing harmful industries, environmentally dangerous wastes on the territory of Ukraine under the international agreements).

It should be noted that the proposed classification of threats is not exhaustive, as they are dynamic and tend to constant change taking into account the variety of factors under which they arise and the diversity of social relations in which they penetrate.

Therefore, taking into account everything mentioned above, the concept of "threats to national security in the sphere of ITEC" can be defined as a set of real and potential dangers of external and internal character in various spheres of social relations that have a negative impact on the vital interests of Ukraine in the process of its international trade and economic cooperation and are the object of support by the state law enforcement bodies Ukraine.

Conclusions

According to the results of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. The concepts of "threat", "challenge" and "risk" are interdependent and interrelated and may well be used to characterize the hazardous phenomena in the sphere of ITEC of Ukraine and therefore require the support of state law enforcement bodies of Ukraine.

2. On the basis of global challenges in the sphere of ITEC of Ukraine and related risks to national security connected with them, the classification of threats to the national security in this sphere is developed. It is offered to distinguish these threats according to the following criteria: the scale of extension, the probability of occurrence, the time of occurrence, the duration, the degree of predictability, the conditionality, the nature of the manifestation, the place of occurrence, the factors that cause them, the sphere of occurrence.

References

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