Èçìåíåíèÿ õàðàêòåðèñòèê öåíòðàëüíî-òèõîîêåàíñêîãî è âîñòî÷íî-òèõîîêåàíñêîãî Ýëü-Íèíüî â óñëîâèÿõ ïîòåïëåíèÿ êëèìàòà (ïî ðåçóëüòàòàì ýêñïåðèìåíòîâ RCP 2.6 è RCP 8.5 ïðîåêòà CMIP5)

Ïðîâåäåíî èññëåäîâàíèå âëèÿíèÿ èíòåíñèâíîñòè ðàäèàöèîííîãî ôîðñèíãà íà õàðàêòåðèñòèêè Ýëü-Íèíüî è íà ñîîòíîøåíèå ìåæäó êîëè÷åñòâîì äâóõ òèïîâ Ýëü-Íèíüî. Îòêëèê àíîìàëèé, ñâÿçàííûõ ñ äâóìÿ òèïàìè Ýëü-Íèíüî, íà óñèëåíèå ðàäèàöèîííîãî ôîðñèíãà ðàçëè÷åí - àíîìàëèè, ñâÿçàííûå ñ ÖÒ Ýëü-Íèíüî, óñèëèâàþòñÿ â îòâåò íà óâåëè÷åíèå ãëîáàëüíîãî ïîòåïëåíèÿ, èíòåíñèâíîñòü àíîìàëèé ïðè ÂÒ Ýëü-Íèíüî íå èìååò ÿðêî âûðàæåííîé çàâèñèìîñòè îò èçìåíåíèÿ ðàäèàöèîííîãî ôîðñèíãà. Ïîêàçàíî, ÷òî ñîîòíîøåíèå ìåæäó êîëè÷åñòâîì ñëó÷àåâ ÂÒ Ýëü-Íèíüî è ÖÒ Ýëü-Íèíüî çàâèñèò îò èíòåíñèâíîñòè ðàäèàöèîííîãî ôîðñèíãà: ïî íàèáîëåå "ñëàáîìó" ñöåíàðèþ (RCP 2.6) äîëÿ ÖÒ Ýëü-Íèíüî â îáùåì êîëè÷åñòâå ñëó÷àåâ Ýëü-Íèíüî ñîêðàùàåòñÿ, à ïðè íàèáîëåå èíòåíñèâíîì ïîòåïëåíèè (RCP 8.5) - âîçðàñòàåò.

Ïî ðåçóëüòàòàì äàííîãî èññëåäîâàíèÿ ìîæíî ñäåëàòü âûâîä î áîëüøîì ðàçáðîñå ìîäåëüíûõ îöåíîê èçìåíåíèÿ äâóõ òèïîâ Ýëü-Íèíüî â óñëîâèÿõ ïîòåïëåíèÿ êëèìàòà XXI âåêà. Îäíèì èç ïóòåé ðåøåíèÿ ïðîáëåìû íåîïðåäåë¸ííîñòè îöåíîê ìîæåò áûòü èñïîëüçîâàíèå äàííûõ ýêñïåðèìåíòîâ äëÿ áîëåå ò¸ïëûõ êëèìàòîâ ïðîøëîãî (Schmidtetal., 2014). Ìîäåëè, êîòîðûå èìåþò ðåàëèçàöèè â ïàëåîêëèìàòè÷åñêèõ ýêñïåðèìåíòàõ, ïðîõîäÿò âåðèôèêàöèþ íà ïàëåîäàííûõ, â òî âðåìÿ êàê îñóùåñòâèòü âåðèôèêàöèþ ýêñïåðèìåíòîâ ò¸ïëîãî êëèìàòà XXI âåêà íà äàííûõ íàáëþäåíèé íåâîçìîæíî. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, "ëó÷øèå" â âîñïðîèçâåäåíèè ïàëåîêëèìàòà ìîäåëè ìîãóò äàòü áîëåå íàä¸æíûå îöåíêè õàðàêòåðà èçìåíåíèÿ Ýëü-Íèíüî (ïåðèîäè÷íîñòè, àìïëèòóäû) â îòâåò íà ïîòåïëåíèå êëèìàòà, è òàêèì îáðàçîì áîëåå íàäåæíî îïðåäåëèòü âåêòîð èçìåíåíèé õàðàêòåðèñòèê Ýëü-Íèíüî â ò¸ïëîì êëèìàòå áóäóùåãî.

Áëàãîäàðíîñòè. Èññëåäîâàíèå áûëî âûïîëíåíî ïðè ôèíàíñîâîé ïîääåðæêå ÐÔÔÈ â ðàìêàõ ïðîåêòîâ ¹16-35-00394, ¹15-05-06693, ãîñáþäæåòíîé òåìû ¹ÀÀÀÀ-À 16-116032810086-4.

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