A predictive approach to the management of social processes in the region

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A PREDICTIVE APPROACH TO THE MANAGEMENT OF SOCIAL PROCESSES IN THE REGION

Gaziza S. Myrzabekova

Problem setting

In Kazakhstan clearly defined the task of further improving the system of state planning and forecasting and the necessity of developing a special program "Global infrastructure integration". In this context, special significance at the present stage of development of the Republic and in the longer term, priority in the set of management practices are becoming problems of forecasting in general and the problems of management of social processes in specific geographical areas, in particular.

In this respect, the pronounced specificity is Kazakhstan, which has unique natural resources, vast territory (the 9th largest in the world), a multiethnic population, etc. A forecast of economic development of Kazakhstan necessitates a careful study of social processes taking place in specific regions. Ultimately, the fate of the country depends on the society - from his reasonable approach to making optimal management decisions.

Analysis of recent researches and publications

Actual problems of management of social development are considered in the works of N. A. Nazarbaye, the Law of RK “Of minimum social standards and guarantees”, Berdaliyev K. B., Kvasova E. U., Doroshenko Y. A., Bujanovac S. M. and in several other works. Despite this problem of social infrastructure in the regional aspect the least studied, especially in such a large region, Almaty. Social problems it is useful to study and solve in the regions.

The aim of the study

The aim of the study is to determine the real social situation of the population in a specific, separately taken region. In particular, the study of social processes in administrative areas, finding out the level and causes of social inequalities, the definition of the regulatory functions of the state in the development of social infrastructure in the regions. Special attention is paid to the problems of forecasting and planning in the Republic in the context of the development strategy in the long term.

The main results of the study

The modern development of prognostics as a science of the future, suffered multiple directions associated with the creation, development and improvement of new methods of forecasting, adaptation of existing methods to specific areas of applied research, develop a comprehensive approach to providing information to the forecasting process.

Pre-existing definition of forecasting requires clarification, additions taking into account the changing nature of industrial relations associated with the occurrence of plurality of ownership, strengthening of social orientation of economic development, as well as the sovereignty of former Soviet Union and the disintegration of the single state. In effect this would give the following definition of forecasting at the present stage: prediction is a system of theoretical principles and conceptual perspectives based on a thorough analysis of the current state of the economy and defining the strategic direction of socio-economic development facilities management taking into account the functioning of market relations.

We believe that the prediction and its value is that it is seen as a first approach to determining the trends of the overall economy and its key sectors. It should always be borne in mind that forecasting how the initial stage of strategic planning, an integral part of the planning process has the advantage of flexibility. In fact, the practice of planning is not complete without preplanning predictive assessments of certain economic phenomena.

The content of the plans based on forecasts, in the fast-changing market situations clearly responds to the nature of the future and the present state of the economy. John M. Keynes remarked that "when changing facts, changing position, changing the management approach to the whole process.

In this context, a new approach is the use of the Strategy "Kazakhstan - 2050" new term "managed forecasting, which involves the extension of the planning horizon, to further improve the system of state planning and forecasting to strengthen the accountability of government agencies for the development of plans and programmers.

It stresses that "managed forecasting becomes an important tool for the development of the state in today's unstable times".

The objective necessity of forecasting and forecast development in the regions is not a local value, and is a worldwide trend. This trend is due to several reasons, which include processes such as securing a decisive role for social problems, for the human factor; in terms of economic sovereignty increases territorial relationship; the increase of mobility of labor resources; the increasing complexity of industrial structure, infrastructure of the region and the deepening of the territorial division of labor.

Criteria basis for forecasting regional development should be the level of security needs of the population of this territory and its contribution to national income. kazakhstan economic social

The practical meaning is the use of predictive approach in the management of social infrastructure of the region. Taking into account the level and specifics of social and economic development of the region can be adapted to the socio-economic policy in the region in the coming period.

Accounting for deviations from the forecast estimates on the different stages of social development of the region will allow making adjustments to current problems, and, if necessary, in the goal of regional social policy.

The complexity of forecasting of social development arise because of the lack of differentiation of existing norms of consumption of goods and services at the regional level, which takes into account the impact of the regional factor. In addition, there is no system of indicators that adequately reflect the needs of the population. Many of the norms of the assets do not reflect the quality characteristics of consumption and does not meet evidence-based standards of consumption.

Regional forecasts should be linked to the Republican base forecasts and programs. This will allow not only to complement and to drill in forward-looking indicators, but also to adjust them taking into account regional differences in socio-economic development.

The regions will be able to better determine the prevailing trends and parameters of the forecast of development and to outline regulatory impact on economic and social processes taking place on its territory taking into account the specifics of the Almaty region and social facilities.

One of modern methods of management of social processes is to predict not only the macro but also the micro level. In this case, the micro level refers to the lower level objects, districts, villages, villages, etc. It has long been established that the core of management is social planning, which is a system of measures aimed at ensuring the optimal functioning and development of social infrastructure of society, the achievement of social homogeneity.

Regulation of this structure is one of the most valuable features of local social planning. Here as the main object should be to consider the personality of the man as a person, as a part of various social groups.

The development of personality, especially the relationship between the individual and society, is a social content planning.

In the context of the problem should focus on the content of the theory of social planning. The main content of this content is, of course, the development of methods of objective social laws in the practice of the routine management of social processes, as well as the study of rates and proportions are crucial not only in the theory of social planning, but are crucial not only in the theory of social planning, but in practice the management of all objects of social sphere of each of the territorial structure.

For the near future should be considered and used in the development of social development plans of the region social norms in determining the proportion between material and social spheres, investment structures, relations within the social sphere.

In our opinion, establishing uniform standards in modern conditions is unlawful. This is due to the following factors:

1. Due to historical conditions of economic and social development, the regions of the country have different economic potential. Setting high standards will result in some developed regions of Kazakhstan to a sharp increase in income and Vice versa, setting low standards will deliver a relatively backward region in a difficult position, therefore, will be assigned to the gap in levels of development of regions, which is significant;

2. Setting high standards can reduce revenue to the state budget, and setting low standards though and will increase these revenues, but put in a difficult position many areas of the Republic;

3. Establishing a single set of regulations will lead in some cases to the withdrawal in the developed areas of the funds that exceed the amount needed to satisfy social norms in these areas. In our opinion, this will lead to their economic interest in the overfulfilment of plans revenues regulatory taxes and revenues.

It appears that the option of establishing differential norms is best, because these standards must take into account the current level of economic and social development of the regions of Kazakhstan.

When forecasting the development of the territories have to consider a number of features arising from the nature and properties of regional systems.

First, the region has a constitutional unit of the unified national system of productive forces and economic relations, its economy interacts direct and inverse manufacturing-economic, resource, scientific, technical, financial ties to the national economy of the country.

Secondly, in the region are relatively complete cycles of reproduction of the population and labor resources, renewable natural resources, fixed and working capital for General use, the relations concerning the production, distribution, exchange and consumption of products.

Thirdly, here there is a direct contact interaction of enterprises with public bodies and local authorities on many issues of economic and social policy, for ensuring a comprehensive and effective socio-economic development of territories.

Fourth, the regional economy is less inertial than the economy and more susceptible to external and internal changes, errors in management. Enough, for example, in the region to сomission a major production facility or, conversely, to stop its activities, how it will affect the sectored structure, employment, transport and economic connections, etc.

The undercount in the prediction of some factors of the future development will also result in incorrect measurement of socio-economic parameters, which is based on the management policy in the region.

The development of the social infrastructure in the country and especially in the regions is impossible without regulatory functions of the state and the specificity of its effects on the industrial structure of this sector.

A global perspective of social development of any region and especially such a specific region as Almaty, without direct government support is highly questionable. The general trend of the change of relations between the various spheres is in favor of the service sector. In this context, the objective of the strengthening of the role of government regulation in the development of the leading sectors of the social sphere of the Republic.

This trend is captured in the increase in the share of public expenditure on social sectors.

Government spending for 5 years (2009-2013) at state services increased by 1.1%, while education and health 3% for housing and utilities 3.7%. This means that the growth rate of government spending on crucial social sectors in the country is significantly higher than all national services.

It is particularly noteworthy that the total state budget for education in 2009-2013 increased in 3 times, including by the Republican - more than 4 times, on the local budget to 2.5 times.

Such a policy during the forecast period in education may have a right called "spiritual investment, the investment of the future." By the way, this is a policy in developed countries has long held. In this connection, it could be recalled - "the Expenditures of the state budget of Japan in 1984 for education and science was 9.6%. This is the 3rd place in the structure of expenditure of the state budget".

Confirmation of the thesis of state regulation of social processes in Kazakhstan is that social assistance and social security in 2009-2013 expenditures from the state budget increased more than 2 times, from the Republican budget - in 2,5 times, and the local budget decreased by 0.9%. This trend in the forecast period for the development of Almaty region will increase.

Specific actions of government regulation can be explicit and implicit, direct and indirect, general and selective. The exact proportion of these actions is difficult to determine, although you can often hear, such as "predominantly selective support for the development of".

A feature of the Kazakh economy is the variety of economic, social and ethnic situation in certain regions of the country. The regions differ in both size and economic potential, and the ability to self-development in conditions of new economic relations.

Manufacturing-industry benchmarks territories do not stimulate the attraction of investments, creation and implementation of new technologies. All this determines the uniqueness of regional situations, the complexity of using foreign experience in their resolution. In this regard, the lack of certainty in state regulation of territorial development exacerbates the situation in the region, hampers the development of an effective structure of a site.

Currently, the regulation at the level of the region is not based on resources, mechanisms and principles that provide the possibility of creating conditions for sustainable, balanced and socially oriented territorial development.

All this forms the basis for the stabilization of the social infrastructure of the region, because it is not defined benchmarks of development, without which the crisis is quite difficult.

As these goals may be represented by the following functional areas:

* orientation regulation of territorial development on the formation of social infrastructure, as appropriate to the complex existing conditions of development and the objectives of the changes implemented;

*consideration of the specific characteristics of the region;

* development of mechanisms of coordination of interests of subjects of regulation;

* justification of the regulatory tasks of development of social infrastructure on the basis, primarily, of the social orientation of development, and financial and resource potential of the region.

Under the regulation of development of social infrastructure in the region, in our view, it should be understood specially organized system of action for the sustainable and balanced functioning of industries. The main principles of state regulation at the regional level social infrastructure could include:

optimal combination of state regulation and market self-regulation, depending on the degree of adaptation to the region and level of development of social infrastructure sectors;

study and implementation of procedures of state regulation of social infrastructure in the region in the regime of special responsibility. Procedures for allocation of responsibility to be laid down in special legal regulations or in the acts regulating the exercise of each solution.

Every city (every municipal entity) must have a clear and realistic programmer for the development of its social infrastructure with clearly defined purposes and calculation of both regional and private resources.

At the heart of solving the most urgent problems of social infrastructure should be guided by the program of social development that are a part (subsystem) of the common system of regional target programs of development of economy of the region. In the context of limited financial resources is particularly important for so-called social control of investment by the state (country-level) and regional authorities (at regional level).

The implementation of such control in the region and involves the selection of programs based on the social standard of the region as the main criterion of their effectiveness. Preference should be given to programmers that are aimed at solving problems in the areas of greatest weakness.

State regulation of management processes in the social sphere, in our opinion, will be the most effective and realistically implemented only through legislation and implementation independent audit of the social events of the region and its districts. In this context, we consider it a great achievement the adoption of a special law on social standards.

Conclusions

We can assume that this is a fundamentally new model of social protection, which is the practical basis for the management of social infrastructure development in the country. This model is constructed on the basis of the Law "On minimum social standards and guarantees". It defines objectives for provision of state support of development of social sphere and assessment of the level of living of the population, and outline the functions of state regulation in the system of minimum social standards and classification of specific areas of social policy.

In particular, we are talking about the system of minimum social standards:

1) the labor includes the wages armor, the duration of daily work; the standard working time and labor standards;

2) in the field of social security - the subsistence minimum, assessment of quality of life, cost of living and so on all spheres of social structure - education, health, culture, etc.

This classification of social standards is a practical basis for the development of social development models of the whole region and its regions, social strata. This classification of forecasting methods allows you to expand the horizons of their application at the regional level.

References

1. Закон РК «О минимальных социальных стандартах и их гарантиях» от 19 мая 2015 года № 314-V 3РК. Казахстанская Правда. 21.05.2015г.

2. Н.А. Назарбаев Стратегия «Казахстан - 2050», Астана, 14 декабря 2012 года. Казахстанская правда. 15.12.2012.

3. Н.А. Назарбаев План нации 100 конкретных шагов по реализации пяти конституциональных реформ, Астана 6 мая 2015 года. Казахстанская правда. 05.06.2015г.

4. К.Б. Бердалиев Проблемы управления и планирования. Алматы: Экономика, 2014. - 104с.

5. Ю.А. Дорошенко, С.М. Буханова Теоретические и методические основы моделирования экономического потенциала. Российское предпринимательство. - 2005, №6, с.54-57.

6. Е.Ю. Квасова Формализованные методы прогнозирования социально-экономического развития региона: Дис. ... канд. экон. наук: 08.00.05: Великий Новгород, 2004, 235c., РГБ ОД, 61:04-8/4138

7. Япония. М., Изд-во “Республика”, 1992.- 543с.

8. Агентство Республики Казахстан по статистике. Экономика и статистика, №2, 2014, с.8. Астана 2014, Ежеквартальный научно-информационный журнал. Издается со второго квартала 1999г.

9. Б.К. Спанова Государственное регулирование развития социальной инфраструктуры региона: Вестник КарГУ. г. Караганда, 2008. Серия Экономика, e-mail: vestnick_kargu@ksu.kz, www: www.ksu.kz.

Annotation

A predictive approach to the management of social processes in the region. Gaziza S. Myrzabekova

The article substantiates the role of forecasting as an element management system, the development and consideration of social processes in the region and its territorial structures. Marked features arising from the nature and properties of regional systems, and strengthening the regulatory functions of the state through the mechanism of the distribution of public expenditure set out the essence of a fundamentally new model of social protection in Kazakhstan and the classification of social standards, which is a practical framework, managed forecasting.

Keywords: regional administration, social infrastructure, social politic, social processes, regional forecasting, social planning.

JEL Classification: 368.031.43

Анотація

Прогностичний підхід до управлiння соцiальними процесами в регіоні/ Газіза С. Мирзабекова.

У статті обґрунтовано роль прогнозування, як елемента системи управління, розвитку та обліку соціальних процесів в регіоні та його територіальних структурах. Окреслено особливості, що випливають із сутності і властивостей регіональних систем, а також посилення регулятивної функції держави через механізм розподілу державних витрат, викладена сутність принципово нової моделі соціального захисту в Казахстані і дана класифікація соціальних стандартів, яка являє собою практичну основу керованого прогнозування.

Ключові слова: регіональне управління, соціальна інфраструктура, соціальна політика, соціальні процеси, соціальне прогнозування, соціальне планування.

Аннотация

Прогностический подход к управлению социальными процессами в регионе. Газиза С. Мырзабекова

В статье обоснована роль прогнозирования, как элемента системы управления, в развитии и учете социальных процессов в регионе и его территориальных структурах.

Обозначены особенности, вытекающие из сущности и свойств региональных систем, а также усиление регулятивной функции государства через механизм распределения государственных расходов, изложена сущность принципиально новой модели социальной защиты в Казахстане и дана классификация социальных стандартов, которая представляет собой практическую основу управляемого прогнозирования.

Ключевые слова: региональное управление, социальная инфраструктура, социальная политика, социальные процессы, социальное прогнозирование, социальное планирование.

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