Technology foresight as a tool for determining priorities of the new economy

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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AS A TOOL FOR DETERMINING PRIORITIES OF THE NEW ECONOMY

Stepanov Evgeniy Vladimirovich, Management of spatial development of the region by the Ministry of economic development, investments and trade of Samara region, Consultant

Abstract

The article justifies the author's approach to the application of scientific and technological foresight as a tool for the identification of national priorities in science and technology. It focused on the author's vision of reforming the Russian foresight. The selected conditions for the use of technical and scientific foresight are necessary to achieve real results.

The transition to an innovative way of development requires a new approach to assessing the role and place of science in social progress and forming and implementing a clear purpose. Scientific and technological policy (STP) in Russia should focus on long-term strategy of innovative breakthrough which is able to overcome the negative trends and critical situations in the dynamics and interaction of the major factors of scientific and technological development at the change of civilizational cycles, based on purposeful, active support of the state and the positive business trends in order to stop the trend scientific and technological degradation, to identify priority fields and to develop innovative niches in the global scientific and technological movement and innovative breakthrough and approaching the level of the avant-garde countries and in the long run to take among them their place.

Economic development based on scientific achievements and new technologies is a crucial factor of competitiveness and the welfare of the nation. Sharing some scholars about the importance of knowledge resources for the strategic development of the country [2-7], we consider it is necessary to justify the author's position on the issue priorities of the national science and technology policy.

At present, Russia is not able to lead an intense frontal research in all areas of global technology agenda. Therefore, in order to prevent senseless dispersion of resources, to conduct pure simulation studies, based on scientific and technological policy aimed at providing technological leadership, it should be extremely limited list of strategic priorities, involving the concentration of resources or implementation of especially important for our country areas of development or implementation of existing technological backlog.

The goal of long-term scientific and technological policy is to create the basis for sustainable technological security of the country and, simultaneously, for technological leadership in some areas. The result should be the positioning of Russia as at least several (at least 4-7) product market high-tech products with a specific gravity of not less than 14-15% [1].

The main content of scientific and technological policy is to create conditions which will be conducive to the development of scientific and technological sphere. Scientific and technological policy can be defined as a system of targeted interventions for the integrated development of science and technology, the wide and rapid spread and development of major innovations, the increasing contribution of STP in the stabilization of the socio-economic development, the formation of the institutions of the national innovation system (NIS), as well as common mechanisms, directions and instruments of implementation of the strategy of innovative breakthrough. Components of scientific and technological policies are forecasting the most important areas, the choice of priorities of scientific and technological activities, development of scientific and technological programs, placement of the state order, the funding of research activities, taxation in the scientific and technological sphere.

The achievement of a significant economic recovery, growth in labor productivity and capital is impossible without the formation of basic economic (property rights protection and competition, freedom of market relations, compliance with contractual foundations and others) and social institutions (equality, civil rights, individual liberty, social protection of the disabled and others) Therefore, the institutional design of the research sector should represent the ordered synchronization of activities of ministries, agencies and Federal departments of science, as well as the elite of the Russian expert of the society for modeling an effective national innovation system and technologically progressive economy.

In the framework of the decision of tasks in Russia was developed the draft of Federal law "On innovation activity and state innovation policy"[9]. The main idea of the bill is the definition of a comprehensive mechanism of state support of innovative activity in order to create the innovation system of the country. Under this bill, a model of innovative development of the Russian Federation should be based not on policy borrowing legacy of foreign technologies, and rely on their own production of scientific knowledge and innovation, active export policy in respect of technology and finished industrial products. According to this bill, one of the main tasks of the state scientific and technological policy is the definition and implementation of the priorities of the NIS. Setting long-term objectives in the field of scientific and technical development must have a multiplicative effect, to promote the development of existing and creation of new industries.

In our opinion, as a tool for the identification of national priorities and vector re-industrialization [8] (reindustrialization - the transition from industrial and industrial base production to its new technological grounds; the transition of production to a more progressive path of development (high technology, computer science, biotechnology, new materials and sources energy)) in general, can be applied to the system of scientific and technological foresight, which is a set of interactive methods for assessing long-term future of science, engineering and technology.

The aim of foresight is to set the strategic direction of research and development that can bring the greatest socio-economic benefits through the development of scenarios, achieving consensus on the choice of a desirable script, the adoption of measures for its implementation. Among the most productive methods of foresight allocate Delphi technique, critical technologies, scenario development, technology road map and the formation of expert panels. In Russia methods of foresight are critical technologies and priority directions of development of science, technologies and techniques that every few years are reviewed and revised taking into account global trends in the world economy. On their basis were formed such policies and programs as the Federal target program "Research and development on priority directions of development scientific-technological complex of Russia for 2007-2012", the Concept of long-term forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation (up to 2025), the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2020 and the other that provides the basis for technological development of the country, which currently has identified five priority directions of modernization: space technology with an emphasis in telecommunications, energy efficiency and energy saving, medical technology, nuclear technology and strategic information technology, including the creation of supercomputers and software.

The creation of the Russian scientific and technology foresight was justified by the necessity of system of state regulation of scientific and technological policy, coherence directions of scientific and technological development, thereby excluding the area of the vacuum within the framework of implementation delivered before the national innovation system tasks. It is also necessary to take into account the time factor, as responsiveness to exogenous and endogenous changes in NIS will be able to keep invariant the state's interests in the management and implementation of innovation policy. Using scientific and technological foresight of the Russian state may not only determine the priorities for the development of science and technology, but also to manage them. The reform of scientific and technological foresight, in our opinion, can be arranged like the work of the office of advanced studies (OAS) in the United States, which engaged in development, search and commercialization of promising technologies, the assessment of the results, as well as the redistribution of financial flows, if the project did not get the expected benefits. Interestingly, the implementation of programs within the OAS is happening at the Federal level and work on their coordination, dissemination and commercialization is carried out in the States. Thus, it was developed a network distribution model of promising areas of research and development at their decentralized financing.

The concept of the draft law "On innovation activity and state innovation policy" provided "in accordance with the priorities of innovative development, defined by the President of the Russian Federation and the government of the Russian Federation, to introduce the notion of priority innovation projects of national importance". This means that in the future, public authorities have "inventory" of already developed areas with the aim of identifying a single innovative development. In our opinion, it is necessary to meet the goal of a competent and efficient manner in the context of the scientific-technological foresight as the primary instrument of state regulation of science and technology policy in Russia.

Today, in conditions of limited financial resources at the disposal of the state and the political will for technological modernization of the Russian economy, the key problem of the Russian sector of science and high technologies is extremely low efficiency of use of available resources - how accumulated capacities (human, technological, knowledge), and flow of expenditures. So, having expenditures in the calculation of purchasing power parity at the level of European countries the average level of development (Italy). However, revenues from exports of high-tech products are approximately at the level of Eastern European countries (Slovakia). On the markets of technologies Russia as an exporter hardly presents.

Accordingly, the actual success in the development of science and technology can be achieved only with the provision of two conditions:

First, there must be a way to mobilize the resources needed for the actual advancement of technological development on selected priority areas. Realistically, this means that, on the one hand, must be created preconditions for attraction to the funding of the corresponding directions of the resources of private companies. On the other hand, the set of priority technologies and projects for their development should be quite limited, in order to avoid dispersion of resources.

Secondly, and this follows from the above, the goals and objectives of the management of scientific and technological development should correspond to the real priorities of economic entities, primarily the state and companies. Otherwise, the received set of priority technologies will be unclaimed real participants of the scientific-technological process.

technological foresight economic science

References

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