Small business efficiency in the macroeconomic context: probability of default indicator for early entrepreneurs
Financial choice of entrepreneurs at their initial stage of development as a key criterion of a new firm potential riskiness. Methodology of the numerical estimation of the role of informal financial resources involved in the small business creation.
| Рубрика | Экономика и экономическая теория |
| Вид | реферат |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 18.05.2018 |
| Размер файла | 1,7 M |
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26. Moody's Investor's Service, (2000). `Risk calculation for private companies: Moody's default model'.
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28. North, D., and Smallbone, D. (1995). `The employment generation potential of mature SMEs in different geographical environments', Urban Studies, 32(9): 1517-1534.
29. Obraztsova, O., and Chepurenko, A. (2008). `Entrepreneurial activity in Russia in cross-national comparison: Global Entrepreneurship monitor 2006-2007' - Proceedings of the Academy of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Bejing, China, Intellectual Property Publishing House.
30. Quill, M., Bosma, N., and Minniti, M. (2006). `Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: data assessment', methodology document, available at: http://www.gemconsortium.org/
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33. Shane, S. (2009). `Why encouraging more people to become entrepreneurs is bad public policy', Small Business Economics, 33: 141-149.
34. Shane, S. A. (2003). `General Theory of Entrepreneurship: The Individual-Opportunity Nexus', Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA, Edward Elgar.
35. Tasche, D. (2005). `Rating and probability of default validation', Basel committee on banking supervision, working paper No.14, Studies on the Validation of Internal Rating Systems: 28-59.
36. Verbeek, M. `A guide to modern econometrics', Third edition, Wiltshire: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2008, 472 p.
37. Verheul, I., and Thurik, R. (2001). `Start-up capital: "Does gender matter?"', Small Business Economics, 16(4): 329-346.
Appendix 1 Sample size with a breakdown into key variables in the country profile
|
2007 |
Number of defaulted businesses |
Number of early entrepreneurs |
Number of informal investors |
Total sample size of APS |
|
|
US |
50 |
411 |
191 |
4399 |
|
|
UK |
1982 |
28108 |
6015 |
429050 |
|
|
Norway |
12 |
155 |
84 |
2284 |
|
|
Brazil |
87 |
303 |
20 |
2227 |
|
|
China |
95 |
443 |
242 |
2692 |
|
|
Slovenia |
21 |
157 |
105 |
3377 |
|
2006 |
Number of defaulted businesses |
Number of early entrepreneurs |
Number of informal investors |
Total sample size of APS |
|
|
US |
24 |
527 |
296 |
5406 |
|
|
Russia |
36 |
220 |
55 |
4504 |
|
|
UK |
2474 |
13760 |
4166 |
206327 |
|
|
Denmark |
82 |
669 |
372 |
12758 |
|
|
Sweden |
10 |
75 |
67 |
2261 |
|
|
Norway |
13 |
207 |
91 |
2013 |
|
|
Germany |
89 |
650 |
176 |
18829 |
|
|
Brazil |
46 |
284 |
31 |
2234 |
|
|
India |
131 |
212 |
211 |
2165 |
|
|
Slovenia |
13 |
157 |
53 |
3313 |
|
|
China |
1858916271 |
6407352439 |
1401412599 |
48763460298 |
|
2006 |
Number of early entrepreneurs who financed business on their own |
Number of early entrepreneurs who attracted funds from relatives |
Number of early entrepreneurs who attracted funds from friends, neighbours and work colleagues |
Number of early entrepreneurs who attracted formal funds |
|
|
US |
216 |
211 |
221 |
173 |
|
|
Russia |
14 |
32 |
16 |
86 |
|
|
UK |
3570 |
999 |
1798 |
3850 |
|
|
Denmark |
221 |
36 |
65 |
79 |
|
|
Sweden |
17 |
73 |
72 |
42 |
|
|
Norway |
37 |
28 |
62 |
83 |
|
|
Germany |
144 |
33 |
49 |
122 |
|
|
Brazil |
44 |
11 |
6 |
2 |
|
|
India |
62 |
73 |
40 |
78 |
|
|
Slovenia |
34 |
16 |
24 |
37 |
|
|
China |
2086203803 |
4150410548 |
351208133 |
660134143 |
Appendix 2
The results of the binary logistic regression model in the sample of defaulted entrepreneurs across selected countries
|
US 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 4(d) |
age |
0,051 |
0,02 |
6,469 |
1 |
0,011 |
1,053 |
|
|
competence |
1,471 |
0,583 |
6,372 |
1 |
0,012 |
4,355 |
||
|
income |
-0,959 |
0,372 |
6,646 |
1 |
0,01 |
0,383 |
||
|
education |
0,82 |
0,245 |
11,195 |
1 |
0,001 |
2,27 |
||
|
Constant |
-7,216 |
1,051 |
47,095 |
1 |
0 |
0,001 |
||
|
UK 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 11(k) |
gender |
0,946 |
0,063 |
228,733 |
1 |
0 |
2,576 |
|
|
age |
0,026 |
0,002 |
252,453 |
1 |
0 |
1,027 |
||
|
social networks |
0,922 |
0,046 |
395,243 |
1 |
0 |
2,514 |
||
|
environment perception |
0,735 |
0,044 |
281,211 |
1 |
0 |
2,086 |
||
|
competence |
1,041 |
0,055 |
353,968 |
1 |
0 |
2,831 |
||
|
confidence |
0,765 |
0,043 |
319,304 |
1 |
0 |
2,148 |
||
|
social perception |
-0,3 |
0,045 |
44,786 |
1 |
0 |
0,741 |
||
|
career game |
0,879 |
0,048 |
331,511 |
1 |
0 |
2,408 |
||
|
social position |
0,594 |
0,054 |
122,613 |
1 |
0 |
1,811 |
||
|
work |
-0,033 |
0,015 |
5,269 |
1 |
0,022 |
0,967 |
||
|
education |
-0,043 |
0,02 |
4,647 |
1 |
0,031 |
0,957 |
||
|
Constant |
-8,024 |
0,119 |
4511,203 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
Sweden 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 4(d) |
gender |
2,304 |
1,141 |
4,076 |
1 |
0,043 |
10,014 |
|
|
competence |
3,169 |
1,464 |
4,688 |
1 |
0,03 |
23,782 |
||
|
confidence |
1,792 |
0,651 |
7,581 |
1 |
0,006 |
6,002 |
||
|
career game |
-2,214 |
0,999 |
4,91 |
1 |
0,027 |
0,109 |
||
|
Constant |
-9,264 |
1,815 |
26,066 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
Slovenia 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 4(d) |
age |
0,074 |
0,028 |
7,002 |
1 |
0,008 |
1,076 |
|
|
competence |
2,445 |
0,759 |
10,371 |
1 |
0,001 |
11,529 |
||
|
confidence |
1,822 |
0,616 |
8,743 |
1 |
0,003 |
6,184 |
||
|
social position |
2,935 |
0,838 |
12,27 |
1 |
0 |
18,824 |
||
|
Constant |
-12,607 |
1,852 |
46,321 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
Russia 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 10(i) |
gender |
3,384 |
1,092 |
9,602 |
1 |
0,002 |
29,484 |
|
|
environment perception |
-3,487 |
1,788 |
3,805 |
1 |
0,051 |
0,031 |
||
|
competence |
2,822 |
0,469 |
36,287 |
1 |
0 |
16,815 |
||
|
confidence |
2,837 |
0,421 |
45,299 |
1 |
0 |
17,057 |
||
|
social perception |
0,959 |
0,403 |
5,661 |
1 |
0,017 |
2,61 |
||
|
social position |
2,864 |
0,853 |
11,263 |
1 |
0,001 |
17,536 |
||
|
publicity |
2,501 |
0,645 |
15,03 |
1 |
0 |
12,194 |
||
|
education |
-0,806 |
0,296 |
7,404 |
1 |
0,007 |
0,446 |
||
|
Constant |
-11,231 |
1,387 |
65,588 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
Norway 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 4(d) |
social networks |
2,133 |
1,05 |
4,128 |
1 |
0,042 |
8,442 |
|
|
competence |
2,133 |
0,958 |
4,952 |
1 |
0,026 |
8,437 |
||
|
publicity |
1,647 |
0,785 |
4,396 |
1 |
0,036 |
5,189 |
||
|
work |
0,305 |
0,148 |
4,221 |
1 |
0,04 |
1,357 |
||
|
Constant |
-9,498 |
1,372 |
47,937 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
India 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 6(f) |
gender |
0,413751 |
0,194752 |
4,51348 |
1 |
0,033629 |
1,51248 |
|
|
competence |
0,724785 |
0,209952 |
11,91737 |
1 |
0,000556 |
2,064288 |
||
|
confidence |
0,407137 |
0,212621 |
3,66664 |
1 |
0,055512 |
1,502511 |
||
|
social perception |
-0,79743 |
0,236471 |
11,37169 |
1 |
0,000746 |
0,450487 |
||
|
career game |
-0,48414 |
0,234466 |
4,263724 |
1 |
0,038934 |
0,616224 |
||
|
publicity |
0,585094 |
0,216942 |
7,27382 |
1 |
0,006997 |
1,79516 |
||
|
Constant |
-3,21782 |
0,202126 |
253,4405 |
1 |
4,62E-57 |
0,040042 |
||
|
Germany 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 7(g) |
social networks |
-0,876 |
0,397 |
4,866 |
1 |
0,027 |
0,417 |
|
|
competence |
3,992 |
0,488 |
67,031 |
1 |
0 |
54,177 |
||
|
confidence |
1,259 |
0,335 |
14,152 |
1 |
0 |
3,522 |
||
|
social perception |
1,688 |
0,393 |
18,486 |
1 |
0 |
5,408 |
||
|
publicity |
1,713 |
0,36 |
22,67 |
1 |
0 |
5,546 |
||
|
work |
0,524 |
0,083 |
39,673 |
1 |
0 |
1,69 |
||
|
income |
0,63 |
0,192 |
10,718 |
1 |
0,001 |
1,877 |
||
|
Constant |
-12,611 |
0,914 |
190,22 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
Denmark 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 2(b) |
social networks |
0,591 |
0,278 |
4,524 |
1 |
0,033 |
1,806 |
|
|
competence |
1,564 |
0,305 |
26,32 |
1 |
0 |
4,779 |
||
|
Constant |
-5,979 |
0,302 |
391,465 |
1 |
0 |
0,003 |
||
|
China 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 13(m) |
gender |
2,767 |
0 |
4E+08 |
1 |
0 |
15,906 |
|
|
age |
-0,258 |
0 |
5,21E+08 |
1 |
0 |
0,773 |
||
|
social networks |
0,929 |
0 |
40094079 |
1 |
0 |
2,533 |
||
|
environment perception |
-0,593 |
0 |
22922067 |
1 |
0 |
0,552 |
||
|
competence |
-1,132 |
0 |
60185020 |
1 |
0 |
0,322 |
||
|
confidence |
-2,657 |
0 |
1,85E+08 |
1 |
0 |
0,07 |
||
|
social perception |
-0,073 |
0 |
180222,9 |
1 |
0 |
0,93 |
||
|
career game |
2,92 |
0 |
1,98E+08 |
1 |
0 |
18,542 |
||
|
social position |
0,938 |
0 |
18400147 |
1 |
0 |
2,556 |
||
|
publicity |
7,468 |
0,001 |
29338852 |
1 |
0 |
1750,642 |
||
|
work |
-0,644 |
0 |
47853005 |
1 |
0 |
0,525 |
||
|
income |
0,368 |
0 |
19890849 |
1 |
0 |
1,446 |
||
|
education |
-0,666 |
0 |
35043331 |
1 |
0 |
0,514 |
||
|
Constant |
-5,453 |
0,001 |
13551095 |
1 |
0 |
0,004 |
||
|
Brazil 2006 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 3(c) |
social networks |
1,198 |
0,35 |
11,713 |
1 |
0,001 |
3,313 |
|
|
confidence |
0,656 |
0,339 |
3,75 |
1 |
0,053 |
1,926 |
||
|
social position |
2,146 |
0,491 |
19,109 |
1 |
0 |
8,547 |
||
|
Constant |
-6,258 |
0,524 |
142,41 |
1 |
0 |
0,002 |
||
|
US 2007 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 6(f) |
age |
0,048 |
0,022 |
4,993 |
1 |
0,025 |
1,049 |
|
|
career game |
-1,731 |
0,561 |
9,513 |
1 |
0,002 |
0,177 |
||
|
publicity |
-2,206 |
0,514 |
18,457 |
1 |
0 |
0,11 |
||
|
work |
0,555 |
0,111 |
24,999 |
1 |
0 |
1,741 |
||
|
income |
0,653 |
0,281 |
5,401 |
1 |
0,02 |
1,921 |
||
|
education |
0,605 |
0,263 |
5,29 |
1 |
0,021 |
1,831 |
||
|
Constant |
-7,947 |
1,346 |
34,864 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
||
|
UK 2007 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 10(j) |
gender |
1,159 |
0,089 |
169,7 |
1 |
0 |
3,186 |
|
|
age |
-0,018 |
0,003 |
30,965 |
1 |
0 |
0,982 |
||
|
social networks |
0,353 |
0,058 |
36,867 |
1 |
0 |
1,424 |
||
|
environment perception |
1,831 |
0,078 |
557,843 |
1 |
0 |
6,239 |
||
|
confidence |
-0,985 |
0,085 |
135,782 |
1 |
0 |
0,373 |
||
|
social perception |
-1,173 |
0,058 |
410,746 |
1 |
0 |
0,309 |
||
|
career game |
-0,376 |
0,062 |
36,792 |
1 |
0 |
0,687 |
||
|
work |
-0,079 |
0,021 |
14,03 |
1 |
0 |
0,924 |
||
|
income |
-0,852 |
0,047 |
322,952 |
1 |
0 |
0,427 |
||
|
education |
0,213 |
0,029 |
53,676 |
1 |
0 |
1,237 |
||
|
Constant |
-3,388 |
0,176 |
371,967 |
1 |
0 |
0,034 |
||
|
Norway 2007 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 3(c) |
age |
-0,093 |
0,043 |
4,737 |
1 |
0,03 |
0,911 |
|
|
social networks |
2,248 |
0,956 |
5,536 |
1 |
0,019 |
9,473 |
||
|
confidence |
2,738 |
0,781 |
12,278 |
1 |
0 |
15,458 |
||
|
Constant |
-3,785 |
1,625 |
5,423 |
1 |
0,02 |
0,023 |
||
|
Slovenia 2007 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 2(b) |
age |
0,049 |
0,024 |
4,313 |
1 |
0,038 |
1,05 |
|
|
social position |
-1,657 |
0,58 |
8,168 |
1 |
0,004 |
0,191 |
||
|
Constant |
-4,63 |
1,144 |
16,381 |
1 |
0 |
0,01 |
||
|
China 2007 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 3(c) |
gender |
0,595 |
0,275 |
4,68 |
1 |
0,031 |
1,813 |
|
|
environment perception |
-0,989 |
0,277 |
12,783 |
1 |
0 |
0,372 |
||
|
competence |
0,802 |
0,282 |
8,074 |
1 |
0,004 |
2,231 |
||
|
Constant |
-3,1 |
0,283 |
120,144 |
1 |
0 |
0,045 |
||
|
Brazil 2007 |
||||||||
|
Variables in the Equation |
B |
S.E. |
Wald |
df |
Sig. |
Exp(B) |
||
|
Step 4(d) |
environment perception |
-0,664 |
0,281 |
5,591 |
1 |
0,018 |
0,515 |
|
|
competence |
1,064 |
0,376 |
7,999 |
1 |
0,005 |
2,897 |
||
|
career game |
-0,721 |
0,332 |
4,711 |
1 |
0,03 |
0,486 |
||
|
work |
0,154 |
0,065 |
5,581 |
1 |
0,018 |
1,166 |
||
|
Constant |
-2,803 |
0,461 |
37,046 |
1 |
0 |
0,061 |
Appendix 3
Validation of the PD models in 2006 on the basis of ROC-curves and accuracy rates
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