Influence of european hub-based pricing development on Gazprom export strategy
European gas market. Gas consumption, production and demand in Europe: key trends. Gazprom: export strategy within the Russian market. The concept of liquidity and its significance for the natural market. Gas pricing: oil indexation and hub-based prices.
| Рубрика | Экономика и экономическая теория |
| Вид | дипломная работа |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 23.12.2019 |
| Размер файла | 1,8 M |
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Due to the high volatility of the global oil market and European gas market supply (that depends on various external factors such as temperature, storage capacities, political and economical disrupts etc.) it is highly difficult to predict with the highest value of certainty what scenario out of four will happen even in the nearest future. What is also highly important is the fact that according to the results of the current research paper the correlation between hub-based prices and oil prices is gradually decreasing, while the correlation with BAFA prices represents another signal of constant European hub trading development. Thus, it is necessary for Gazprom to further adapt its LTC pricing formula by extending the weight of “a spot” component in the formula in order to make LTC price be more reflexive to market changes (particularly supply changes) by gradually reducing oil pegging in prices (now gas prices is pegged by 60% to oil prices that is quite high number). However, the company should not absolutely reject trading gas under LTC conditions. Firstly, it may lead to supply disrupt in the European market since the majority of exported gas especially in conditions of decline in gas production is delivered by Gazprom. Secondly, the sharp change in the company's export strategy may result in decline in profit since such a significant change requires some adaptation in terms of time. Thus, the export strategy adjustment and development should be carried out at moderate pace.A more flexible export strategy will enable the company to extract higher profit, to cut risks in volatile energy market and no to lose its market share at the most profitable foreign export market. Furthermore, the company should increase gas traded volumes in spot market segment since spot market is gradually becoming the centre of gas trading in Europe.
The same recommendations could be addressed to every company that export its gas to the European gas market. An exporter should take into account the existence of positive correlation between spot prices, oil prices and LTC prices. Furthermore, in case of high oil prices spot prices will correlate only with LTC prices that create a “price ceiling” for spot prices. Gas supply at the market is one of the important factors while deciding for a company's export strategy. The four scenarios explained earlier give an overall insight about different paths of future market development and include several uncertainty factors that helps companies to adapt their strategy correspondingly.
4.4 Theoretical Implications
The research method of the regression analysis has been broadly used in recent years in order to find out the correlation between hub-based prices, oil and long-term contract prices.
Normally the existence of the correlation between aforementioned prices was tested for the whole period (10 years, for instance). In the current research the approach has been further developed.Besides the regression for the whole period a number of regressionsfor sub-periods were carried out in order to examine how the correlation between hub-based prices, oil and LTC prices changes in time perspective. This approach allows researches not only to check for the existence of correlation, but also to examine whether there are some trends in correlation changes over a period of time (weakening of correlation, strengthening of correlation, fluctuations triggered by some externalities etc.). Finally, carrying out several regressions for sub-periods provides researches with opportunities to define potential factors that influence prices decoupling and prove development process in the market.
Moreover, by applying this approach not only the European gas market could be analyzed, but also Asian market, where development pace is quite high.
Conclusion
Thus, the aim of the current research paper is to identify whether and how hub-based prices are affected by oil and long-term contract prices and whether and how the correlation between hub-based prices, oil and LTC prices is changing over time. The results of the regression analysis show that nowadays there is quite strong positive correlation between prices formed at hubs, Brent oil prices and BAFA long-term contract prices. Thus, even in the condition of quite high liquidity levels at the main European hubs - NBP and TTF - hub-based prices cannot be considered as absolutely independent prices mechanism.
However, the correlation between aforementioned prices is changing over time. According to the results of the regression analysis performed for three sub-period it is concluded that the strength of the correlation between prices at TTF and NBP and oil Brent prices is decreasing over a particular period of time. This is the indicator that hub-based prices are becoming more and more independent since the spot European gas market is constantly developing in terms of gas traded volumes, market (hub) participants and churn ratios. The results correspond to the finding from the scientific literature that in mature markets with high liquidity levels prices is independent and reflect market conditions in terms of demand and supply changes. As it was mentioned earlier, hub-based prices in the European gas market cannot be considered as absolutely independent pricing mechanism, but such prices have high potential to be representative of market demand and supply fluctuations in the future since hub-based prices are affected by Brent oil prices to smaller degree nowadays and this trend of diminishing correlation strength between prices will continue to be present further. Thus, the decreasing correlation between prices is an indicator of developing process in the European gas market towards integrated market place with the focus mainly on the hub-based pricing mechanism.
Another proof of such a constant development is the increased correlation between hub-based prices and BAFA prices. As it was mentioned earlier, the pricing formula of BAFA prices is constantly changing as any other formula of long-term contract for gas delivery. The “spot” component in BAFA formula is increasing over time in order BAFA prices reflect changes occurred in the European gas market related to the development and the proliferation of gas trading at hubs. Thus, the increase in the correlation between hub-based prices and BAFA prices appeared in the results of the regression analysis and correlation matrixes is logically explained and represent another proof that the European gas market is developing towards integrated market with eroded state boundaries and increased gas trading at liquid hubs.
The majority of gas export to Europe is provided by Gazprom under long-term contracts for gas delivery. Despite the fact that the company also expands its business activities in liberalized deregulated markets and is currently active in spot and short-term trading of natural gas, the corestone of the company's export strategy is gas trading under LTC conditions with “take-or-pay” principle.http://gasforum.ru/obzory-i-issledovaniya/583/ The results of the regression analysis allow carrying out the scenario analysis regarding the Gazprom export strategy. While there are two scenarios that are quite positive for the company and do not require significant development in the company's export strategy, the two another ones are signals that there is a need for the company to further develop its export strategy in order it correspond to European gas market conditionsand not to lose its market share on the target market for gas export. In particular, it is suggested to further change pricing formula and to increase “spot” component by decreasing oil indexation (that has now 60% of weight) so prices for gas proposed by Gazprom can be competitive with constantly developing hub-based prices. Another suggestion is to increase gas traded volumes that are sold in spot market since hubs are constantly development and are becoming the centre of the gas trading in Europe.
The managerial implication made for Gazporm company are applicable for any other exporter who operates in the European gas market since changes occurred now in the market influence all exporters.
Thus, the current state on the European gas market with its developing gas hubs and graduate shift from gas trading under LTC conditions to hub-based trading defines the direction for companies' export strategies. The lack of development in terms of gas export approach may lead to shrinking market share of an exporter and declined profit.
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Appendices
Correlation matrix for time period
31.12.2008 - 31.03.2018
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|||
|
1 |
TTF prices |
1 |
||||
|
2 |
NBP prices |
.967 |
1 |
|||
|
3 |
Brent prices |
.758 |
.724 |
1 |
||
|
4 |
BAFA prices |
.691 |
.680 |
.845 |
1 |
31.12.2008 - 31.12.2011
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|||
|
1 |
TTF prices |
1 |
||||
|
2 |
NBP prices |
.984 |
1 |
|||
|
3 |
Brent prices |
.847 |
.853 |
1 |
||
|
4 |
BAFA prices |
.634 |
.656 |
.867 |
1 |
01.01.2012 - 31.12.2014
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|||
|
1 |
TTF prices |
1 |
||||
|
2 |
NBP prices |
.979 |
1 |
|||
|
3 |
Brent prices |
.150 |
.081 |
1 |
||
|
4 |
BAFA prices |
.475 |
.415 |
.855 |
1 |
01.01.2015 - 31.02.2018
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|||
|
1 |
TTF prices |
1 |
||||
|
2 |
NBP prices |
.841 |
1 |
|||
|
3 |
Brent prices |
.690 |
.417 |
1 |
||
|
4 |
BAFA prices |
.836 |
.647 |
.836 |
1 |
Normal P-Plot of Regression Standardized Residual
SPSS output: TTF as dependent variable.
Time period: 31.12.2008 - 31.03.2018
Размещено на http://www.allbest.ru/
Time period: 31.12.2008 - 31.12.2011
Time period: 01.01.2012-31.12.2014
Time period: 01.01.2015-31.03.2018
SPSS output: NBP as dependent variable.
Time period: 31.12.2008 - 31.03.2018
Time period: 31.12.2008 - 31.12.2011
Time period: 01.01.2012-31.12.2014
Time period: 01.01.2015-31.03.2018
Размещено на Allbest.ru
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