Forecasting social, ecological and economic security at meso level

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Forecasting social, ecological and economic security at meso level

Baldzhy Maryna

Розглянуто теоретико-методологічні підходи до процесу соціальної складової, прогнозування екологічної та економічної безпеки на мезорівні. На основі аналізу існуючих підходів до прогнозування регіональної безпеки запропоновано метод прогнозування соціальної, екологічної та економічної безпеки регіону, який, на відміну від існуючих, спрямований на виявлення перспектив запобігання комплексним збиткам від негативних впливів. на соціальні, економічні та екологічні складові діяльності регіону. Для прогнозування було запропоновано використання окремих елементів соціальної, екологічної та економічної орієнтації, визначено можливі фактори ризику, визначені для рівня безпеки. Охарактеризовано існуючі класифікації прогнозів і методологій, які дозволили зосередитись на виборі ситуаційного прогнозування, згідно з яким соціальний, екологічний та економічний прогноз базується на втручанні поведінки суб'єктів регіону та моделі причинно- наслідкового ефекти відносин.

Вдосконалення низки значень показників екологічної та економічної безпеки для регіонів вимагає довгострокового моніторингу та аналізу великої кількості інформації. Аналіз джерел надав змогу окреслити основні методологічні засади прогнозування соціальної, екологічної та економічної безпеки регіону, які повинні бути інтегровані, тобто з аналізом та врахуванням усіх аспектів об'єкта; системно - з урахуванням взаємозв'язків і взаємозалежностей; альтернативно - з визначенням і обґрунтуванням ряду варіантів нейтралізації або усунення ризиків і загроз, вказуючи на можливий ризик у здійсненні заходів для запобігання пороговим ситуаціям. Очевидно, що для розв'язання різноманітних завдань аналізу та оцінки екологічної та економічної безпеки, інструментарій також має бути універсальним і гнучким, щоб за короткий час мала б змога до його адаптації щодо нових завдань у мінливому зовнішньому середовищі.

Ключові слова, прогнозування, соціальна, екологічна та економічна безпека, індикатор, регіон, фактори ризику, моделі.

Baldzhy Maryna

Forecasting social, ecological and economic security at meso level

The article considers the theoretical and methodological approaches to the process of social component, predicting environmental and economic security at the meso level. Based on the analysis of existing approaches to forecasting regional security, a method for predicting the social, ecological and economic security of the region has been proposed, which, unlike the existing ones, is aimed at identifying prospects for preventing comprehensive damages from the negative impacts on the social, economic and environmental components of the region activities. For forecasting, the use of individual elements of social, ecological and economic orientation has been proposed, and possible risk factors identified for the level of safety have been determined. The existing classifications of forecasts and methodologies are characterized, which allowed to focus on the selection of situational forecasting, according to which the social, ecological and economic forecast is based on the interference of the behavior of subjects of the region and the model of cause-effect relationships.

Refining a number of threshold values of indicators of environmental and economic security for the regions requires longterm monitoring and analysis of a large amount of information. Analysis of the sources allows to outline the basic methodological principles of forecasting the social, ecological and economic security of the region, which should be integrated, that is, with the analysis and consideration of all aspects of the object; systemically - taking into account interconnections and interdependencies; alternatively, with the definition and justification of a number of options for neutralizing or eliminating risks and threats, indicating the possible risk in the implementation of measures to prevent threshold situations. Obviously, to solve the diverse tasks of analysis and assessment of environmental and economic safety, the toolkit must also be universal and flexible, so that in a short time it would be possible to adapt it to new tasks in a rapidly changing external environment of the regions.

Keywords: forecasting, social, ecological and economic security, indicator, region, risk factors, model.

Балджи Марина

В статье рассматриваются теоретико-методологические подходы к процессу социальной составляющей, прогнозирования экологической и экономической безопасности на мезоуровне. На основе анализа существующих подходов к прогнозированию региональной безопасности был предложен метод прогнозирования социальной, экологической и экономической безопасности региона, который, в отличие от существующих, направлен на выявление перспектив предотвращения комплексного ущерба от негативных воздействий. о социальной, экономической и экологической составляющих деятельности региона. Для прогнозирования было предложено использование отдельных элементов социальной, экологической и экономической направленности и определены возможные факторы риска, определенные для уровня безопасности. Охарактеризованы существующие классификации прогнозов и методологий, которые позволили сосредоточиться на выборе ситуационного прогнозирования, согласно такому социальный, экологический и экономический прогноз основан на взаимосвязи поведения субъектов региона и модели причинно-следственных связей. эффект отношений. ecological economic security

Уточнение ряда пороговых значений показателей экологической и экономической безопасности регионов требует долгосрочного мониторинга и анализа большого количества информации. Анализ источников позволяет наметить основные методологические принципы прогнозирования социальной, экологической и экономической безопасности региона, которые должны быть интегрированы, то есть с анализом и рассмотрением всех аспектов объекта; системно - с учетом взаимосвязей и взаимозависимостей; альтернативно, с определением и обоснованием ряда вариантов нейтрализации или устранения рисков и угроз, с указанием возможного риска при реализации мер по предотвращению пороговых ситуаций. Очевидно, что для решения разнообразных задач анализа и оценки экологической и экономической безопасности инструментарий также должен быть универсальным и гибким, чтобы в короткие сроки его можно было адаптировать к новым задачам в быстро меняющейся внешней среде.

Ключевые слова: прогнозирование, социальная,

экологическая и экономическая безопасность, индикатор, регион, факторы риска, модель.

Introduction

Significant uncertainty of modem economic processes actualizes research in the field of assessment, diagnosis and forecasting of sustainable development at the meso level, considered as the main condition for overcoming crisis phenomena. The sustainable development paradigm has been successfully developing in economic science in recent decades and is getting practical application in developing strategies for the socio-economic development of the country, regions and other territorial units. The problems of sustainable development are studied by domestic and foreign researchers in various fields with the formation of complex systems of indicators and aggregated indicators of sustainability. However, the indicative approach, which allows to quantify the goals of sustainable development, to predict the results and the possibilities of achieving them in this field of science, has not been completely formed. Problems of measuring the level of safety, namely economic and environmental orientation; improvement of tools for its diagnosis, forecasting and design at the meso level remain actual and unresolved. Adequate assessment, forecasting technology and development based on forecasts of the program of social, ecological and economic security of the region determine the effectiveness of management decisions, the dynamics of social, ecological and economic development of the regions and the state as a whole.

Results

Forecasting plays a key role in the process management system of the social and economic development of the region as a link among the objectively necessary functions of preparing and implementing relevant decisions. The choice of erroneous management decisions based on an erroneous forecast can lead to negative consequences of the development of regional and national systems. Overcoming these consequences will require additional resources to ensure the economic development of the regions and the social welfare of its citizens [1, 183].

In modern conditions, the problem is becoming topical: how to evaluate objectively the future, which cannot be interpreted as a continuation of the past, and this process acquires fundamentally new forms and structures aimed against threats that periodically arise in a modern market economy. It is impossible to achieve positive results without using quantitative methods, in particular forecasting, therefore the importance of forecasting lies in a scientifically based forecast of the dynamics and structure of economic, social and environmental phenomena and processes to improve the quality of decisions, to avoid mistakes when developing projects of short-term and long-term policy at the meso level.

The prediction of environmental and economic security at the meso level means the prediction of the future state of the economic and environmental components of sustainable development.

Taking into account the problems of ensuring the social, ecological and economic security of the region, it is necessary to develop a special system of parameters taking into account the specifics of a particular territory. Ensuring the environmental and economic security of the region should be viewed as a process to prevent comprehensive damages from negative impacts on their economic and environmental components in various aspects of economic activity. This is the aim of forecasting.

At present time, when determining the components of forecasting, the set of elements of the set process, the components of the probability of non-fulfillment of the predicted indicators, is most often considered.

For forecasting, we propose to consider the following elements: the characteristics of the subject and object, the activity process; final result, common goal and feedback, control and monitoring. Development of forecasts at the meso level is carried out in four stages:

pre-forecastorientation;

organizational stage (building time series and identifying development trends, extrapolation);

analysis, control and improvement;

reporting stage.

For determining the level of safety, it is advisable to identify risk factors that may be identified with the help of expert judgment.

The latter is carried out in two stages: the actual survey and statistical processing of the survey results.

Stage 1. Expert survey. Risk assessment, being a fundamental element in the development of a strategy, begins with an external analysis, an analysis of factors that are outside the scope of ongoing monitoring. The external environment of the region consists of the macroenvironment (world economy, scientific and technical progress, natural factors) and the microenvironment (government, competing regions, social and demographic environment). Based on the results, a questionnaire is compiled, in which the most significant risk factors are selected. The questionnaire should include a list of risk factors and weights, which the expert distributes at his discretion between the above factors. Also in the questionnaire free lines for making, if necessary, other options, should be provided, which will reduce the likelihood of unrecorded factors. According to these factors, risk management schemes and methods are compiled. All risk factors (internal and external) are determined and analyzed from the point of view of the possibility of their regulation and foresight, their impact on the further development of the region and its social, ecological and economic security. The expert assigns a rank from the interval (0,100) to each defined risk, and these data will subsequently be entered into a matrix of analysis of potential danger. After the experts fill in the matrix, their generalized opinion is displayed.

Stage 2. Statistical processing of the results of the survey. Based on the collected expert information, a summary table is compiled, the rows of which correspond to the experts, and the columns correspond to the risk factors. This is followed by statistical processing of the results of the survey. To identify the generalized expert opinion, the arithmetic average of the factor estimates is used:

where Oj - generalized expert opinion, n - risk factor;

Ej - impact assessment of j factor by i expert.

The proposed method is based on the assumption that a number of factors affect the magnitude of deviations of the predicted values from the actual factors - starting from the risk factors of the socio-economic development of a particular region, ending with the risks of the forecasting process itself, which, due to the complexity of the object, links within it, is associated with many risks stage of its implementation. Therefore, the essence of the method is to assign each specific risk of forecasting a specific weight (rank) relative to the magnitude of the deviation (error), i.e., it is thus determined what proportion of this risk is in the total mass of deviations. The use of this risk assessment forecasting methodology will increase the internal flexibility and stability of the region in conditions of economic instability.

Discussion

The scientific work of foreign and domestic scientists, such as Ansoff I., Karloff B., Campbell D., Koch G., Kaplan R, Norton D., E.I. Boiko, A.S. Halchinskyi, V.M. Heietz, F.A. Vazhynskyi, Z.S. Varnaly, M.I. Nyzhnii, S.I. Dorohuntsov, I.F. Kolomiets, A.F. Melnyk, T. Morozova, S.I. Pirozhkov, S.A. Romaniuk, M.I. Fashchevskyi, M. Chumachenko, L.T. Shevchuk, S.L. Schultz etc.

The issues of the forecasting methodology improving are considered by M.K. Cherniakova and M.M. Cherniakova (2013), where the effectiveness of decisions is determined by the correctness of economic forecasting based on the methods of analysis. O.M Pisareva (2011) revealed the specificity of forecasting and analytical activities in managing a multi-level organizational system and established a steady manifestation of a new quality of organizational systems of a business type related to the multi-level structure of their construction and the use of a special mechanism for managing their operation and development, which made it possible to justify the need forecasting. A.I. Sukhorukov and Yu.M. Kharazishvili (2012) focused on forecasting and a corresponding comparison of the effectiveness of the socio-economic development of the regions, and also highlighted the problems of the economic security of the regions. Also, A.I. Sukhorukov (2011) disclosed the features of the application of the integral assessment of economic security. In the monograph of V.V. Evdokimova, A.V. Oleinik, D.A. Gritsishen and

O.O. Grishchenko (2013) the theoretical and methodological provisions of economic security are noted and the transformation of the management system of economic security are revealed. G.V. Pashentseva (2014) examines the peculiarities of the definitions of "safety" and "environmental safety"; covers the economic aspects of ensuring environmental safety. V.M. Yachmeneva and N.A. Fokina (2013) justify the concept of environmental and economic security and determine the level of its assessment. B.V. Burkinsky (2010) considers the issues of ensuring the economic security of the regions of the Ukrainian Black Sea region in order to increase their competitiveness, and also traces the interrelation of the economic security of the region with national economic security. The above list of works demonstrates the significant developments of domestic scientists in the chosen research direction and confirms the importance of continuing and improving this area.

From the total set of methods for analyzing and predicting various parameters of environmental and economic security, scholars identified the following:

method of observing the main indicators and comparing them with threshold values;

method of tracking growth rates according to the dynamics of changes in key indicators;

method of ranking territories (by the level of threats, risks, individual security components, etc.), using expert assessments;

methods of multivariate statistical analysis;

assessment of the consequences of security threats through quantitative determination of the damage.

It is also necessary to understand that any threshold values are static values, and for the analysis of environmental and economic security, trends in the development of the situation reflected in the indicators are important. Therefore, the analysis of threshold values should take into account the many interrelationships between diverse indicators. Getting an adequate picture of the situation is hampered by the often encountered distortions in statistical reporting. As a rule, this refers to data on the magnitude of inflation, indicators of labor productivity, and other economic indicators.

World practice has developed a number of benchmarks in relation to the thresholds of economic security. They mainly concern the areas of inflation, unemployment, production, finance, property differentiation of the population. However, the complex of threshold values of indicators of environmental and economic security in a system form is absent, especially adapted to the regional level. Thus, in the world practice for market economy countries, separate threshold values of indicators of economic security have been adopted:

characteristic of economic growth rates (normal growth rate is estimated at 2-4% per year, the minimum - at 0.5--1.5%);

fall of GDP relative to the period adopted as the baseline (a fall rate of 50% is considered a threshold level, or “critical development trajectory”, followed by irreversible destruction);

global threshold index of the physical volume of industrial output is 150%;

natural level of employment or unemployment should be in the range of 6.5--7%, although it can reach 15--20% during periods of radical structural changes in the country, but only for a short period;

annual values of 5--10% in developed countries, annual inflation rates are considered to be uncertain (high inflation leads to a depreciation of the population's cash incomes, lower production volumes, an increase in the money supply, 50% inflation requires special measures, beyond 500% hyperinflation exists, etc.).

However, in countries with transitional economies, the problem of inflation manifests itself in a different way, has various deviations, and is still poorly understood. The growth of the money supply also has its limits, and interconnected with the growth of inflation. Compliance with the dynamics of these two indicators is permissible only in cases when the growth rate of the money supply exceeds 30% per year. With a 10% annual growth rate, there are uncoordinated discrepancies. The threshold index of consumer price index is in the range of 106-110%.

Very significant indicator for the economy of the state of security that characterizes the process of reproduction is the indicator of the volume of investment in fixed assets. In world practice, the threshold value of this indicator is determined in the range of 15 - 25% of GDP. Tax deductions to the budget also have their thresholds, so the border beyond which the tax begins to act as a disincentive of the economy is determined by the tax rate of 32%.

Dolmatov [13] proposed a method that provides for the creation of a safety scale reflecting the normal, pre-crisis, crisis and critical state of the situation in the field under study for assessing and forecasting the state of economic security in the region. For social, ecological and economic security, such a scale should be uniform, with the establishment of the base value (assumed to be zero). For the formation of the scale of ranks, the use of expert points is proposed. The expert characterizes the state of security that can be assigned to the specified categories. Next, indicators are grouped by component to determine the integral indices for each component, and then on this basis, the integral indices of environmental and economic security are calculated for various objects, which are then ranked.

E. Utkin and A. Denisov [14] applied the scoring method to study the level of economic security. They identified three main criteria of economic security: the expanded reproduction of the infrastructure of the region (social and economic), the limits of critical dependence on the import (or import) of a number of essential products, ensuring the necessary level of livelihood of the population. It is necessary to agree that the significance of these criteria is very significant, however, the authors did not show their priority in comparison with the proposals of other researchers. In addition, the filling of these criteria with separate indicators has not been disclosed and their threshold values have not been decoded. It is doubtful in the objectiveness and often criticized method of scoring applied by the authors.

As concerns environmental safety issues, scientists focus on analyzing information on the state of the environment in the region, on the presence or absence of changes in the amount and degree of contamination by products of economic activity, and on the direction of these changes. Such information can be obtained in the process of integrated environmental assessment of the territory, as well as in the process of environmental monitoring and systematic monitoring of environmental quality. This can be achieved by creating an integrated system of monitoring the quality of surface and groundwater, atmosphere, soil, etc. Environmental criteria for determining safety include: preservation of the natural environment; protect and increase biodiversity; promoting or re-using natural resources, recycling waste; the use of alternative energy sources; minimization of land, air and water pollution; reduction in the use of freight traffic, etc.

Strong contribution to this process can be made by a well- organized, managed and coordinated by the local government body, a complete system of industrial environmental monitoring, including a network of production and analytical laboratories of regional enterprises. It is at the level of local governments in the face of the environmental authority, including its control functions, that the primary analytical base of the environmental quality management system should be laid.

Thus, in order to develop forecasts of environmental and economic security at the meso level, a comprehensive analysis of the situation in the region is carried out in the following areas:

demographic situation (birth rate, mortality, life expectancy, migration);

natural environment (minerals, climate, water and land resources, soil composition, flora and fauna);

social sphere (state of education, health, culture, science, crime rate);

regional finance (state of the budget, tax potential of the territory, financial condition of business entities);

the standard of living of the population (income, wages, living wage, consumer basket);

production sphere (total production volumes, branch structure, dynamics of production);

ecology (volumes of harmful emissions, implementation of environmental protection measures).

In the theory of forecasting, there are many reasons by which forecasts are classified. However, the most suitable for socioeconomic forecasts will be the classification by time criterion. From the point of view of this criterion, forecasts are divided into longterm, medium-term and short-term [5, 378].

Long-term forecasts are developed once every 5 years in the tenth period. The data of such forecasts are used in the development of medium-term forecasts of the development of the region, as well as for concepts and programs. In the long-term forecasting, one set of indicators characterizing the potential of a region is taken into account: land resources, mineral resources, labor force, fixed and circulating capital, and scientific and technical achievements.

Medium-term forecasts are developed for a period of 3 to 5 years with annual data adjustment. With medium-term forecasting, indicators of effective demand of the population and other agents of reproductive activity (region, entrepreneurs, population) come to the fore. In medium-term forecasting, the factors used in long-term forecasting are no longer sufficient to explain the dynamics of output.

Short-term forecasts are developed annually. The data of such forecasts is the basis for drawing up a draft regional budget. When building a model of a short-term forecast for the first place, there are indicators describing the financial situation in the economy as a whole and for individual groups of economic entities: households, small and medium business, business sector, population.

When forecasting this level, traditional methods are used based on three approaches.

Trend approach. It is based on the method of extrapolation of data, that is, projected indicators are calculated as a continuation of the dynamic series for the future according to the identified patterns of development. The extrapolation method is effective for short-term forecasts, if the data of the dynamic range are expressed clearly and consistently. In the long term, the results of forecasting with the use of this approach are contradictory. This necessitates their coordination, which is often performed only in relation to the upper level of indicators by more or less mechanical fitting. Since the indicators of other levels remain unchanged in this case, the inconsistency will be preserved and, as it were, “retouched”. And worst of all, any change in the forecasting scenarios will inevitably lead to the repetition of this time-consuming and informal procedure.

Compilation of a general list of predicted parameters, extracts of relationships and causal relationships between them. To implement this approach in practice, it is necessary to introduce subjects of the region as acting agents and form their strategy of behavior in the regional market. By setting the scenario trajectories of exogenous parameters of the model obtained, one can calculate the evolution of endogenous parameters by reproducing established causal relationships. The main advantage of this approach to forecasting is that the focus is not on analyzing the trends of the main indicators characterizing the state of the region, but on estimating the parameters of the behavior strategies of its subjects that led to this state. Another important argument is the a priori balance of the forecast obtained, in contrast to the trend forecasting for individual indicators or their groups.

The technology of situational forecasting, according to which the forecast is the result of the evolution of the initial state of the balance simulation model of a region's activity for a given perspective under given scenario conditions. In this case, the predicted state is a consequence of the interference of the behavior of subjects of the region on the forecasting horizon. In the process of forecasting, the source database is transferred to the point of forecasting through a model of cause-effect relationships. The general system of situational forecasting of a region includes the construction of certain predictive models that reflect the main exogenous and endogenous parameters of the socio-economic system of the region.

Detailed forecast with the help of one of the considered methods allows to form the concept of further development of the region, highlight priority objectives, which will emphasize the attractiveness for potential investors; to assess the scale of increasing investment and the possibility of mobilizing domestic resources to ensure environmental and economic security.

Conclusions

The results of the study show that today many of the economic security indicators proposed in the works of domestic authors are not adapted to the regional level, moreover, threshold values are not defined for them, which makes it difficult to assess the real security of the regions. Many of the indicators are not included in the statistical reporting system; for some, calculation methods have not been developed. Refining a number of threshold values of indicators of environmental and economic security for the regions requires long-term monitoring and analysis of a large amount of information. Analysis of the sources allows to outline the basic methodological principles of forecasting the social, ecological and economic security of the region, which should be integrated, that is, with the analysis and consideration of all aspects of the object; systemically - taking into account interconnections and interdependencies; alternatively, with the definition and justification of a number of options for neutralizing or eliminating risks and threats, indicating the possible risk in the implementation of measures to prevent threshold situations. Obviously, to solve the diverse tasks of analysis and assessment of environmental and economic safety, the toolkit must also be universal and flexible, so that in a short time it would be possible to adapt it to new tasks in a rapidly changing external environment of the regions.

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