Влияние заработной платы в европейской части России на миграцию в районах Крайнего Севера

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Moretti E. (2011) Local Labour Markets // Handbook of Labour Economics, vol. 4B, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 1237-1314.

Roback J. (1982) Wages, Rents and the Quality of Life // Journal of Political Economy, vol. 90, no 6, pp. 1257-1278.

Rolfe J., Miles B., Lockie S., Ivanova G. (2007) Lessons from the Social and Economic Impacts of the Mining Boom in the Bowen Basin 2004-2006 // Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, vol. 13, no 2, pp. 134-153.

Rosen S. (1979) Wagebased Indexes of Urban Quality of Life // Current Issues in Urban Economics (eds. Miezkowski P., Straszheim M.), Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 74-104.

Samet K. (2013) Circular Migration between the North and the South: Effects on the Source Southern Economies // Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, vol. 93, pp. 225-242.

Sardadvar S., Vakulenko E. (2016) Interregional Migration within Russia and its East-West Divide: Evidence from Spatial Panel Regressions // Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, vol. 28, no 2, pp. 123-141.

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The Impact of Wages in the European Part of Russia on Migration in the Far North

M. GILTMAN*, N. OBUKHOVICH**, N. LARIONOVA***

*Marina Giltman - PhD in Economics, Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tyumen.

** Natalia Obukhovich - PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tyumen.

***Natalia Larionova - PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory and Econometrics, Kazan Federal University.

Abstract

This article analyzes the population decline in the Russian North associated with the outmigration of the labor force. First, we review previous empirical studies and show that migration to the North was previously driven by labor demand in the mining and extractive industries. However, higher economic development in the European part of Russia might also have had an impact on the migration to the Far North. In particular, we hypothesize that rising wages in the European part of Russia negatively affected such migration. We use official panel statistics on 65 Russian regions (53 in the European part and 12 in the Far North) over the period 2010-2017 and test this conjecture econometrically by estimating a fixed-effects model with a spatial lag. The model accounts for regional economic development, labor market characteristics, macroeconomic shocks, labor force education and other relevant parameters. We show that out-migration from the Far North was positively associated with increasing wages in the European part of Russia. However, we also find that increasing wages in some regions of the North partly counteracted this process. We conclude with policy implications for the development of the Arctic zone, such as increasing state support to boost the demand for labor in the Northern regions.

Key words: Arctic, wage, labor demand, migration, local labor markets, Arctic population, population of the North, compensating differentials

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