The Impact of Currency Regulation Policyon the Country’s Export Potential: The Case of Armenia
Description of the problem of the influence of the currency regulation policy on the export potential of the country's economy. Analysis of the impact of the exchange rate of the Armenian national currency on the export potential of the country's economy.
| Рубрика | Экономика и экономическая теория |
| Вид | статья |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 08.02.2021 |
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The Impact of Currency Regulation Policyon the Country's Export Potential: The Case of Armenia
E. M. Sandoyana, A. G. GalstyanbH
Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University, Yerevan, Armenia a
ABSTRACT
The impact of currency regulation on the country's export potential has been the focus of scientific research and discussion among economists for years. Currency regulation is a backbone element to maintain the competitiveness of the country's economy, macroeconomic stability, and to stimulate economic growth. The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of the exchange rate of the Armenian national currency (dram) on the country's export potential, as well as the choice of a currency regulation policy stimulating export expansion and economic growth in Armenia. The study employed the methods of statistical and comparative analysis, as well as the construction of logistic assumptions. The authors conducted a statistical analysis of the dynamics and structure of Armenia's exports by product groups and countries. They revealed that, with the exception of exports to Russia, Armenia's exports to other countries has a high ratio of raw materials. As known, the exchange rate has the greatest impact on the price competitiveness of finished products in foreign markets. The authors evaluated the impact of currency regulation policy implemented in Armenia on the export potential and competitiveness of Armenian goods, especially in the EAEU markets. The results show that Armenia is not able to maximize its export opportunities due to the uncompetitive exchange rate of the national currency. The key conclusion of the research is the thesis that Armenia should abandon the non-market mechanisms for ensuring exchange rate stability, the Central Bank should immediately shift to a policy of free-floating national currency and non-intervention, which will significantly expand the presence of Armenian finished products in foreign markets, especially in the Russian Federation.
Keywords: export potential; currency regulation policy; exchange rate; economic growth
Влияниеполитикивалютногорегулированиянаэкспортныйпотенциалэкономикистраны (напримереАрмении)
Э.М. Сандоян© Sandoyan E. M., Galstyan A. G., 2020, А. Г. Галстяньн
Российско-Армянский университет, Ереван, Армения а
АННОТАЦИЯ
Проблема влияния политики валютного регулирования на экспортный потенциал экономики страны является предметом научных исследований и дискуссий среди экономистов на протяжении многих лет. Выбор режима валютного регулирования является одним из системообразующих элементов поддержания конкурентоспособности экономики страны, макроэкономической стабильности и стимулирования экономического роста. Цельисследования- анализ воздействия обменного курса армянской национальной валюты (драма) на экспортный потенциал экономики страны, а также выбор политики валютного регулирования, стимулирующего расширение экспорта и экономический рост в Армении. Использованы методы статистического и сравнительного анализа, а также построения логистических предположений. Авторами проведен статистический анализ динамики и структуры экспорта Армении по товарным группам и странам. Было выявлено, что за исключением экспорта в Россию, структура экспорта Армении в остальные страны характеризуется высоким удельным весом сырьевых продуктов. Как известно, обменный курс имеет наибольшее влияние на ценовую конкурентоспособность готовой продукции на внешних рынках. Авторами оценено влияние реализуемой в Армении политики валютного регулирования на экспортный потенциал и конкурентоспособность армянских товаров, особенно на рынках стран ЕАЭС. В результате исследования авторы пришли к выводу, что Армении не удается максимально использовать свои экспортные возможности из-за неконкурентоспособного обменного курса национальной валюты. Ключевымвыводомисследования является тезис о том, что Армении необходимо отказаться от нерыночных механизмов обеспечения стабильности обменного курса, центральному банку следует незамедлительно перейти к политике свободно плавающего курса национальной валюты и невмешательства, что позволит значительно расширить присутствие армянской готовой продукции на внешних рынках, особенно в Российской Федерации.
Ключевые слова: экспортный потенциал; политика валютного регулирования; обменный курс; экономический рост
INTRODUCTION
The impact of currency regulation on the country's export potential has been the focus of scientific research and discussion among economists for years. Currency regulation is a backbone element to maintain the competitiveness of the country's economy, macroeconomic stability, and to stimulate economic growth.
The most important achievement of macroeconomic regulation is long-term sustainable economic growth. However, developing countries often prefer targeting short-term problems at the expense of long-term outcomes, which typically harms the country's standard of living and quality of life. At the same time, the mechanisms of macroeconomic regulation presuppose a long-term strategy of economic development, including in the area of monetary policy. From this point of view, currency regulation policy plays an important role in ensuring sustainable rates of economic growth.
On the other hand, sustainable long-term economic growth requires a stable commodity and foreign exchange markets to ensure a stable currency system and favourable conditions for external trade.
In developing countries, exchange rates of national currencies tend to be overvalued, which has a negative impact on exported goods by lowering producers' real prices. For example, real exchange rate misalignments occur in markets where nominal exchange rates are not allowed to adapt to the changes in economic fundamentals, thereby reducing incentives and profits, leading to a decline in investment and export volumes, thus having a negative impact on economic growth [1]. Countries such as Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, North Korea, Taiwan, and China, among others, have successfully developed and applied models of economic growth where the exchange rate was used as a primary tool [2]. export potential armenian currency
Exchange rates and the choice of currency regulation policy are the focus for discussions by economists especially for emerging economies [3-5].
In this context, the case of Armenia is of particular interest. The main hypothesis of the study is that the currency regulation implemented over the last ten years has led to a significant reduction of Armenia's export potential and consequently a slowdown in economic growth.
LITERATURE REVIEW
The impact of the country's currency regulation on export potential has been the focus of economic debate for years. The choice of currency regulation policy is very important in the context of the country's external competitiveness, macroeconomic stability, and economic growth.
In general, there are two ways to improve the trade balance of a country. The first is an internal approach and is based on the supply-side policies that improve productivity, reduce inflation and taxes and lead to a more efficient labour market. These measures lead the growth of exports and GDP. The second way is the currency depreciation, which leads to changes in relative prices of imports and exports [6].
Preserving a fixed foreign exchange rate is a policy that can help ensure certain price stability by effectively introducing monetary confidence. This can often lead to a real appreciation of the effective exchange rate, which leads to a reduction in reserves, makes export more expensive while making import cheaper.
S. Kurtovic [7] found evidence for the J-curve while examining the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance. The study shows a long-term cointegration between the exchange rate and the trade balance. The implication of the J-curve effect deriving from the Marshall-Lerner conditions is that the country's tradebalancemovesintheformofthe J-curveintheeventof a devaluationofthenationalcurrency. Firstofall, thetotalvalueofimportsincreasesbecauseofthehigherpriceofimportedgoodsandexceedsthetotalvalueofexports. Thisleadsto a tradedeficit. However, devaluationincreasesthedemandforexports, whichleadstoanincreaseinexportvolumes. Intheend, thetradebalancebecomespositive.
On the other hand, for many years, some researchers have believed that the floating exchange rate creates additional volatility, leading to a decline in international trade. Thus, a fixed exchange rate regime would be more appropriate [8-10]. Moreover, Hericourt et al. emphasized that emerging countries should be careful when relaxing their exchange rate regime: moving to a fully floating regime without the adequate level of financial development could also prove to be very hazardous for trade performance [11].
Later, economists found that floating rates did not diminish foreign trade, but had a positive effect on exports. M. Feldstein [12] argued that the flexible exchange rate regime was more desirable for foreign trade than the fixed one. Similarly, according to D. Rodrik [13] and S. Bhala [14], an overvalued exchange rate may impede export, thereby economic growth, when an undervalued national currency may stimulate the tradable sector.
Competitive and even undervalued currencies have been used by many countries to achieve export-led growth, especially by economies in emerging Asian markets. The cornerstone of such a model is the maintenance of external price competitiveness to promote export and economic growth. C.-W. Hooy, S. N. Law and T. H. Chan [15] studied the impact of renmimbi on the exports to China. They found a significant positive impact of real exchange rate depreciation on exports of high-technology and medium-technology final and intermediate goods. In another research, K. Wondemu and D. Potts [16] studied the impact of real exchange rate changes on the export performances of Ethiopia and Tanzania. They suggested that while overvaluation is harmful to exports, undervaluation of the real exchange rate boosts export supply as well as export diversification. They have found out that a high rate of growth in exports is associated with periods of undervalued currencies. Moreover, comparing the two countries, they concluded that Tanzania has better export performance since it maintained an undervalued real exchange rate.
IMF provides a thorough analysis about the influence of exchange rate on commodity prices and trade volumes. Their findings support some earlier evidence of a positive association between the terms of trade and the real exchange rate of commodity exporters. Thus, the exchange rate depreciation leads to lower export prices and higher import prices, which in turn leads to growth of exports and reduction of imports1.
The literature review and the empirical experience of countries show that it is very important to maintain exchange rate competitiveness, but is unnecessary to have an undervalued exchange rate.
The export-led model requires the economy to maintain stable and predictable external price competitiveness. This may preclude the application of the de facto floating exchange rate regime. Economies with emerging markets in Asia usually link their currency to other currencies. Even in countries where the de jure floating exchange rate regime was implemented, countries often took measures to stabilize or depreciate the nominal exchange rate, with the ultimate goal of keeping the real exchange rate relatively undervalued. This policy is politically ambiguous, and many insist that some Asian countries engage in currency manipulations [17].
However, the policy of keeping the real exchange rate relatively devalued can cause inflationary pressures in the economy. Therefore, it is accompanied by a trade-off between external competitiveness and domestic price stability International Monetary Fund. 2015. World Economic Outlook: Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices. Washing-ton (October). URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/World-Economic-Outlook-Octo- ber-2015-Adjusting-to-Lower-Commodity-Prices-43229 (ac-cessed on 11.02.2020). Does currency depreciation necessarily result in positive trade balance? New evidence from Norway HarisDzanan and Mansur Masih. MPRA Paper No. 82103, 2017. URL: https:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/82103/ (accessed on 11.02.2020).. It is assumed that the export-led model can be effectively implemented in countries where domestic inflationary pressures can be contained by means other than the currency regulation. Countries with low and manageable inflation rates may gradually pay more attention to enhancing external competitiveness. In any case, developing and transition economies may seek to use the exchange rate as a tool to create favourable and predictable conditions for the tradable sector of the economy.
As long as productivity in the tradable sector is high, countries are encouraged to maintain a relatively high level of external competitiveness for tradable goods to make the resource allocation to the tradable sector attractive. The works by D. McLeod and E. Mi- leva [18], J. Aizenman and J. Lee [19], G. Benigno et al. [20] have the “learning by doing” effect, exogenous for certain firms operating in the tradable sector of the economy; therefore, a weak real exchange rate is necessary to support the tradable sector. In these models, underestimating the currency acts as a subsidy for export.
Based on the empirical analysis of several countries,
D. Rodrik [21] confirms that competitive and undervalued exchange rates are more likely to contribute to export growth and differentiation than overvalued ones. Rodrick provided a more detailed explanation in another work [22]. The depreciation of the real exchange rate is, by definition, an increase in the relative prices for tradable goods, compared to the non- tradable sector; he argues that an undervalued currency may enhance the relative profitability of the tradable sector and causes it to expand (at the expense of the nontradable sector).
Some empirical studies confirm the link between foreign exchange rates, export growth and differentiation (e.g., R. Nouira et al. [23]). Exchange rate adjustments partially offset financial losses from safeguard measures applied to the tradable sector.
B. Balassa [24] argues that the devaluation of the national currency is equivalent to the simultaneous application of import duties and export subsidies at the same rates. Therefore, the transition to free trade and simultaneous currency depreciation can be seen as a replacement of existing safeguards with a united customs duty and subsidy, which will keep the trade balance unchanged. However, such a belief is based on the assumption that there is no market distortion or, even if there are market distortions, they affect all segments equally. However, D. Rodrick [25] argues that the impact of internal institutional weaknesses and market distortions on the tradable sector is greater than the impact on the non-tradable sector. In such a situation, a deliberate devaluation of the real exchange rate may be a “second best” solution to partially improve the situation. Such a policy measure promotes structural changes, increases export volumes, and improves economic growth by altering internal trade conditions in favour of the tradable sector.
Sustainable development of the Armenian economy against the growing competition in both foreign and domestic markets is only possible if the competitiveness of the national economy and its entities is radically increased. Moreover, our research shows that implementing a floating exchange rate and export-led model can accelerate the economic growth of Armenia [26]. The relevance and practical significance of the issue necessitates the analysis of the role of currency regulation for the competitiveness of the national economy.
THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ON THE EXPORT POTENTIAL IN ARMENIA
According to the results of the literature review, the exchange rate has a significant impact on export volumes and potential. Now we will proceed to the analysis of the impact that the Central Bank of Armenia's exchange rate regulation has on the country's export potential.
As we have shown in our research papers (e.g., [27]), despite the declared floating exchange rate policy, the CBA nonetheless de facto conducts a managed, sometimes even fixed exchange rate regime. Among the factors directly influencing the exchange rate of the Armenian dram we can distinguish market channels, as well as non-market mechanisms applied by the monetary authorities. The two main instruments used by the Central Bank of Armenia to manage the exchange rate are direct interventions in the foreign exchange market and reserve requirement doubled in December 2014 to stop the devaluation of the Armenian dram.
It is known that the foreign exchange rate mainly affects the external competitiveness of consumer products. Meanwhile, the export volumes of raw materials, generally, are influenced by their quantity in a particular country and the international demand.
First, let us look at the dynamics of Armenia's export structure by product groups. Fig.1 shows that until
2014, 75-80% of Armenia's exports concentrated in the four main product groups: minerals, gemstones, metals, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. Since 2013-2014, the cigarette export has increased significantly; in 2018, it already was 11.1% of Armenia's total export (267.6 million US dollars) and occupied the 4th place (Fig. 1).
We should highlight that the significant increase in cigarette export volumes is due to the sharp increase in demand for Armenian cigarettes in the UAE, Iraq and Syria (Fig. 2). Over the past five years, exports of this product to Iraq have increased by more than three times, to Syria -- by19 times, to the UAE -- by 15 times, to Georgia -- by almost 4 times. The dynamics of the export to Russia shows no significant growth.
50-67 -- Textile and footwear (Fig. 3) is another new sector in Armenian exports that has sustainable growth rates. The products of this group are almost entirely exported to Russia, Italy and Germany. At the same time, the increase in exports was observed in all three countries during the period under review. However, the most significant growth was recorded in
2015, and was due to the sharp increase in exports to Russia.
|
Country / Year |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Devaluation, 2018/2014, % |
|
|
Armenia |
416 |
478 |
480 |
483 |
483 |
16.06 |
|
|
Belarus |
1.02 |
1.59 |
1.99 |
1.93 |
2.04 |
100.00 |
|
|
Kazakhstan |
179 |
222 |
342 |
326 |
345 |
92.73 |
|
|
Kyrgyzstan |
54 |
64 |
70 |
69 |
69 |
28.35 |
|
|
Russia |
38 |
61 |
67 |
58 |
63 |
65.72 |
Table 1
Dynamics of the nominal exchange rates of the EAEU member countries to the US Dollar, 2014-2018
Source: The World Bank database. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed on 18.11.2019).
|
Country / Year |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Change, 2018/2014, % |
|
|
Armenia |
102.5 |
108.4 |
107.6 |
104.0 |
104.5 |
2.0 |
|
|
Belarus |
95.8 |
92.4 |
84.7 |
80.7 |
81.2 |
-14.6 |
|
|
Kazakhstan |
97.9 |
102.7 |
76.4 |
81.9 |
80.2 |
-17.7 |
|
|
Kyrgyzstan |
110 |
115.1 |
113.2 |
113.3 |
114.5 |
4.5 |
|
|
Russia |
99.4 |
82.9 |
82.6 |
95.7 |
88.3 |
-11.1 |
Table 2
Dynamics of the real effective exchange rate of the EAEU member countries (2010=100), 2014-2018
Source: Eurasian Economic Commission. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org (accessed on 18.11.2019).
Fig. 6.ThestructureofArmenianexporttoRussiabymajorproductgroups, thousands US dollars, 2010-2018
Source: Customs Service of the Republic of Armenia. URL: http://www.petekamutner.am/ (accessed on 19.11.2019).
Thus, only a competitive exchange rate can increase the competitiveness of the tradable sector of the Armenian economy in foreign, particularly Russian, markets, while serving as a tool to promote exports and protect domestic producers. Competitive exchange rates will create incentives for production growth in the tradable sector of the economy due to high profitability
Overall, Armenia should abandon the non-market mechanisms of ensuring exchange rate stability; the Central Bank should immediately shift to a free-floating exchange rate and non-intervention policy, which will significantly expand the presence of Armenian finished products in foreign markets, especially in the Russian Federation.
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