Statistical analysis of current development of agriculture in Russian regions

The agro-industrial complex in modern Russia is the most important socio-economic resource of the country, importance of which is growing in conditions of increasing role of natural factors in the system of sustainable development of civilization.

The trajectory of rural development is characterized by extreme unevenness. Even taking into account the achieved growth indicators of agricultural production after 2008--2009 crisis we can state a significant lag in quality and standard of living of rural population compared to urban one. There is a widening gap in innovation [1], investment, informational component of social development [2]. The degradation of cultural and social infrastructure is observed [3--5]. These and other unfavorable factors lead to an unsatisfactory structure of agricultural production funds. The negative impact of migration processes, expressed in the negative migration balance for rural areas, is becoming increasingly apparent [6--8]. There is an irrevocable loss of labor results in developing vast and prosperous in the past territories, and agro-industrial potential that has taken place in the past is being vanished [9--11].

Insufficient development of agricultural production in Russia hinders implementation of one of the most important reforms in post-Soviet Russia -- land, which began three decades ago, which provides for replacement of collective farms and state farms as agricultural producers by hundreds of thousands of farmers and peasants owning their own land. Privatization of agricultural land and provision of it to those who want and can cultivate it seemed an obvious necessity [12].

Currently, in relation to agricultural land plots, the tasks still remain paramount:

ensuring stability of land legislation and unity of the land policy pursued at the territorial level [13, 14];

developing effective information and analytical tools for accounting and monitoring the state of the land fund in the country in the context of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, digital transformation and digitalization of land market [15];

improving quality and expansion of the services provided by public authorities, ensuring information availability of land market indicators for all interested participants [16];

completion of the process of creating the Unified State Register of Real Estate, a multiple increase in the data contained in it both spatially and temporally, and increase their reliability [17];

realization of the rights of owners of land shares (units), expanding possibilities of their use in civil circulation;

improving the mechanism of land acquisition through involvement in land production of agricultural land from agricultural land in case of their non-use, improper use or misuse;

creating a unified methodological approach for all subjects of permissible state interference in private property for the speediest resolution of the accumulated contradictions of market institution of land acquisition for state and municipal needs [18];

development of security measures for access to land plots of federal, regional and municipal significance, as well as administrative reduction in number of cases of land plots without bidding [19];

accelerating the development of the institution of lease and redemption of land [20];

legislative support of providing land for specific agricultural production purposes: poultry, deer, pig, feed, grain, vegetable, potato, wine, industrial gardening and others [21];

accounting, monitoring, protection of valuable and productive agricultural lands [22];

application of advanced scientific developments and technological advances aimed at improving soil fertility [23].

The purpose of the study was to determine the dominant regions by integrated indicator of development of agro-industrial complex based on study of statistical dynamics for certain types of agricultural indicators over a long observation period.

Materials and methods

Fig. 3. Agricultural land dynamics in 2005--2017 (percentage)

In the regional context, changes in the area of agricultural land at the level of -0.3% over 12 years throughout the country should be recognized as insignificant. Chelyabinsk and Volgograd regions are characterized by the greatest growth. Increase in construction pace and changing types of permitted land use resulted in significant reduction in agricultural land occurred in the Moscow Region (Fig. 3).

Emissions in the form of points on the graphs used indicate extreme values. In fig. 3, the Moscow and Murmansk regions with the maximum retirement of agricultural land in the amount of -6.6 and -5.5%, respectively, were among the extreme values (emissions). The maximum increase in the share of agricultural land in the total land fund of the region occurred in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug in the amount of + 11.5%. 6 regions can be distinguished with a negative increase in agricultural land, the Republic of Kalmykia is only one subject of the Russian Federation with a positive increase (1%). Values for the remaining 73 regions are in the range from -0.5 to -2.0% with a median of -0.3%.

Obviously, share of agricultural land retirement from circulation over the past ten- plus years in the vast majority of Russian regions is very small. Perhaps, an analysis of agricultural land by category or land by regions of the Russian Federation will help to interpret reasons for low profitability of this economical sector.

In absolute terms, the largest increase of agricultural land was recorded in the Volgograd region and the Republic of Kalmykia. The Moscow region, Altai region, Kemerovo region and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug -- Yugra are leaders in agricultural land reduction at the regional level (Fig. 4).

Dynamics of agricultural land in 2005--2017 (thousands of hectares)

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, threshold values of food safety indicators provided for by the Food Safety Doctrine

for grain, vegetable oil, sugar, meat and fish were met in 2018. The threshold indicators for milk and milk products, potatoes were not reached.

Currently, agricultural development is characterized by steady growth in agricultural exports, with growth faster than most other economical sectors. In 2018, growth in exports of food products and agricultural raw materials compared to the previous year amounted to 19%, reaching $ 25.7 billion. The main growth was due to an increase in wheat exports by 39.5% (by $ 3.0 billion), in which Russia ranks first in the world. The target growth rate for agricultural exports is up to $ 45 billion by 2024.

The major work in agricultural production is carried out by residents of the countryside. It is important to ensure a comfortable standard of living in the village that meets modern requirements, attract young specialists to the countryside with possibility of continuous improvement of their skills, create conditions for recreation and leisure (sports, walking with children in landscaped areas and recreation areas, improving living conditions). Equally important is preservation of historical and cultural monuments, restoration of natural landscapes, solution of issues related to civilized collection of household waste and its disposal.

The dynamics of sown areas for the analyzed period may be characterized as weak. The Tyumen region, the Ryazan region, the Rostov region, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, the Republic of Buryatia, the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Kursk Region and the Republic of Sakha-Yakutia demonstrate success in agricultural production (Fig. 5).

plant 1 - acreage of agricultural crops;

plant 2 - acreage of cereals and legumes;

plant 3 - sugar beet acreage;

plant 4 - acreage of sunflower;

plant 5 - acreage of flax;

plant 6 - acreage of potatoes;

plant 7 - vegetable acreage.

Fig. 5. Dynamics of cultivated areas in 2005--2017

plant 8 - gross grain harvest;

plant 9 - yield of cereals and legumes;

plant 10 - gross sugar beet harvest;

plant 11 - the yield of sugar beet;

plant 12 - gross harvest of sunflower seeds;

plant 13 - the sunflower yield;

plant 14 - gross flax fiber harvest;

plant 15 - productivity of flax;

plant 16 - the gross harvest of potatoes;

plant 17 - potato yield;

plant 18 - gross harvest of vegetables;

plant 19 - vegetable yield;

plant 20 - gross harvest of fruits and berries.

Fig. 6. Dynamics of crop yield in 2005--2017

The results presented on the graphs very clearly reflect not only dynamics of turnover of agricultural land throughout the country, but also efficient use of available land resources. Some regions have made significant progress in the development of agricultural production for the period from 2005 to 2017. The Volgograd region increased gross harvest of sugar beets by more than 45 times, the Kurgan region and the Omsk regions increased the gross harvest of flax fiber by more than 20 times, the Chechen Republic increased the gross harvest of sunflower seeds by a record 50 times (Fig. 6).

Oryol region increased sunflower growing area for the analyzed period from 0.1 thousand hectares in 2005 to 74.8 thousand hectares in 2017, therefore, the indicator was excluded for display on the graph. The region showed amazing dynamics in this indicator. Factors that testify to involvement of agricultural land in agro-industrial circulation allow us to speak about positive shifts in the processes of formation of trajectory of sustained sustainable development at the regional level.

Modernization of engineering infrastructure is necessary to ensure a modern standard of living and remain important for rural areas: construction and repair of roads, gas pipelines, water pipelines, and telecommunication networks. According to the Federal State Statistics Service for 2018, less than 40% of rural settlements are provided with central water supply, 35% of villages do not have an asphalt road, gasification rates for houses (apartments) with network gas are uneven across the country and averaged 60.3%.

In accordance with the Government's decree, from January 1, 2018, the implementation of the federal target program “Sustainable Development of Rural Areas for 2014--2017 and Until 2020” was terminated ahead of schedule. The program is integrated into the State Agro-Industrial Complex Program as a separate subprogram “Sustainable Development of Rural Areas”. For the implementation of the subprogram in 2018, 17.1 billion rubles were allocated. from the federal budget, 12.5 billion rubles -- from regional and local budgets, 5.0 billion rubles -- from extra budgetary sources. Implementation of the subprogramme contributed to improving living conditions of citizens in rural areas.

Resource support for program activities does not provide pace of development of housing, social and engineering infrastructure of the village, network of roads necessary for implementation of serious qualitative changes in conditions of rural population.

The draft state program for integrated development of rural areas provides for a preferential mortgage of up to 3% per annum for purchase or construction of a house, as well as possibility of using a consumer loan for home improvement and for purchase of equipment for energy supply, water supply, sewage, heating. Russian credit organizations will be reimbursed for lost income in the amount of the Central Bank's key rate.

As part of direction to promote rural employment, compensation is provided for costs to agricultural producers who sent employees for additional training, support is provided for future specialists with targeted training and students undergoing practical training, as well as soft loans for creation and connection of facilities to engineering and transport infrastructure. The target indicator of rural employment should be 80%, and unemployment should be 5.7%.

The project provides for improvement of rural areas -- 42 thousand projects (landscaped recreation areas, playgrounds and sports grounds, well-lit streets, sidewalks and bus stops).

Development of engineering and transport infrastructure is also one of the priorities of state policy and basis for improving rural life. The program provides for completion of construction and commissioning of gas pipelines, water pipelines, telecommunication networks, road networks (leading to socially significant objects of rural settlements, objects of production and processing of agricultural products), as well as a comprehensive arrangement of sites for compact housing in 2021.

To achieve these goals, the government plans to coordinate the state program with national projects and the country's Spatial Development Strategy.

According to the results of the study by the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 6 trillion rubles are needed to solve the priority tasks of rural territories:

2.1 trillion rubles -- development of engineering infrastructure;

2 trillion rubles -- improving the quality of road infrastructure;

900 billion rubles -- improvement of housing conditions;

950 billion rubles -- development of education, increasing accessibility of cultural facilities, expanding access to sports facilities, developing a healthcare system.

A number of targets are planned in the draft State Program, including increasing well-being of rural population in terms of the ratio of the average monthly disposable resources of rural and urban households to 80% (currently 68%); improvement of the housing stock of the rural population in terms of the proportion of residential premises provided with all types of utilities to the level of 50% (currently 32.5%); maintaining the share of the rural population in the total population of Russia (currently about 35%).

As a result of intensification of urbanization processes throughout the regions, the area of agricultural land is decreasing. A separate role in this process is played by cities of federal significance: Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sevastopol. For example, in connection with administrative transformations in Moscow, the area of agricultural land changed from 2.1 thousand hectares in 2012 to 48.9 thousand hectares in 2017.

The main descriptive statistics on the land fund of the regions are given in table 1. Cities of federal significance as Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sevastopol were previously excluded, therefore, number of observations was 82, and they were disclosed in 7 variables.

Table 1 Land distribution of regional economic systems by categories

Note. I -- agricultural land; II -- lands of settlements; III -- lands for industry and other purposes; IV -- lands of specially protected territories and objects; V -- lands of the forest fund; VI -- lands of the water fund; VII -- land reserve.

Most regions have arable land fund formed in the 20th century, designed to ensure food security of the population. The largest share of land left for a while without cultivation in order to restore their fertility is in the Republic of Mari El (17%), Pskov and Bryansk regions (12 and 8%, respectively). The largest land areas occupied by perennial plantings are located in cities of federal significance, as well as in the Murmansk and Moscow regions. The strongest differentiation is observed in relation to fodder land distribution, so in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug their share is 99% of the total agricultural land. In the diagram below, the block boundaries take 25...75% of values for all the regions (Fig. 7).

In the structure of agricultural land (Fig. 8), the largest share is occupied by arable land, they make up half of all farmland. The third part of the land is occupied by fodder plantings. The share of lands occupied by perennial plantations and deposits in the structure of agricultural lands is insignificant.

According to the total area of land occupied by arable land and fodder land, among the regions we can distinguish the Transbaikal region, the Republic of Kalmykia, the Orenburg region and the Altai region (Fig. 9).

For forming a grouping of regions according to degree of agro-industrial potential, three indicators were taken into account -- area of agricultural land, forest fund land and reserve land. The grouping of regions by other variables did not pass the test for statistical significance of considered variables in the cluster analysis.

Interpretation of Fig. 9 is given in table 2. The regions included in the first and second clusters have the largest land resources for further intensification of agricultural development. The area of agricultural land can be increased due to a significant share of forest land.

Thus, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are initially specific for available land and property potential. The administrative management of the regional system is based on land management for sustainable socio-economic development.

In order to identify uniformity of agro-industrial development, a taxonometric model of agro-industrial potential of the regions was constructed by summarizing 22 statistical indicators (Table 3) published by Rosstat in a regional context.

The taxonometric development indicator is so-called synthetic indicator, which equally characterizes variables under consideration for the entire set of territorial units, which allows linear ordering of variables included in the analysis and ranking of objects of observation with arithmetic procedures.

Table 2Subjects of the Russian Federation with significant land resources for further agricultural development

Table 3 The system of used statistical indicators

The study was carried out in the following stages:

1. Collection of statistical indicators and bringing them to a comparable form.

2. After preliminary preparation of the initial data, a matrix of regional indicators was formed and standardization was carried out.

3. The procedure for standardization of variables is accompanied by an inevitable loss of information, therefore, to increase the influence of some variables and reduce the influence of others, coefficients of hierarchy of variables were introduced.

Using the integral indicator obtained by the taxonometric method, it is possible to evaluate the achievement by an individual region at a particular point in time of the average value of the indicators in question. For the purposes of reliability of the analysis, cities of federal significance were excluded, the number of regions participating in the analysis was 82 (Table 4).

At the last stage, a matrix of standardized variables, adjusted for the coefficient of hierarchy, was calculated. The result of the analysis was the construction of a ranking of regions by the level of development of agricultural production.

The results of rating building can be compactly displayed on a histogram by determining the number of intervals (groups) using the Sturges formula (Fig. 10).

Fig. 10. Distribution of regions according to the integrated index of agro-industrial development

The ranking of regions by relatively stable groups visually shows a significant gap between the Krasnodar Territory and the Rostov Region by the integral index, determining their dominant position in the agricultural specialization of the regions (Table 4). Due to the fact that the groups were selected at regular intervals, the second group was not present in the final rating, and none of the regions considered fell into the range of values.

Table 4 Distribution of Russian regions by index of agro-industrial development

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