Assessment of contribution by corporate structures of the construction business to the economic development of territories

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Институт бизнеса и делового администрирования

Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации (РАНХиГС)

Оценка вклада корпоративных структур строительного бизнеса в экономическое развитие территорий

Сергей Васильевич Раевский

профессор

Андрей Алексеевич Ромашин

генеральный директор

Агентство недвижимости «Мэншен»

Аннотация

Целью статьи является разработка методики оценки вклада корпоративных структур строительного бизнеса в экономическое развитие территорий. Авторами статьи выдвинута гипотеза, что при выборе инструментов регионального управления необходимо точечно использовать те, которые при минимальном воздействии приведут к наибольшей результативности. Для доказательства указанной гипотезы используются расчеты по оценке вклада крупных корпоративных структур строительного бизнеса в создание валового регионального продукта при помощи корреляционно-регрессионных моделей. Показано, что принятие эффективных управленческих решений в большой степени зависит от выбора направлений воздействия именно на те виды бизнеса, которые формируют наибольшую долю добавленной стоимости. Предложенный подход позволяет обоснованно выделить при формировании экономической политики региона инструменты поддержки со стороны органов регионального управления функционирования корпоративных структур строительного бизнеса.

Ключевые слова: экономическое развитие территорий, экономика региона, строительный бизнес, факторы регионального развития, диагностика регионального развития, риски и угрозы регионального развития, корреляционно-регрессионный анализ, крупные корпоративные структуры, инструменты регионального развития

Assessment of contribution by corporate structures of the construction business to the economic development of territories

Sergey V. Raevsky, Professor, Institute of Business Studies

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Andrey a. Romashin, General Director

“Menshen” Real Estate Agency

Abstract

corporate construction business

The article considers the development of methodology for assessing the contribution of corporate structures of the construction business to the economic development of territories. In the article, a specific theoretical approach is used, i. e. when choosing the instruments of regional administration, it is required to use precisely those, which with a minimum impact will lead to maximum effectiveness. When working on this hypothesis, appropriate estimates are used to assess the contribution of large corporate structures of the construction business to the creation of the Gross Regional Product with the usage of correlation regression models. The adoption of effective management decisions to a large extent depends on the selection of the right areas of impact on those types of businesses that form the largest share of value-added. This approach allows us to highlight the tools to support the corporate structures of the construction business in developing the economic policy of the region.

Keywords: economic development of territories, regional economy, construction business, regional development factors, characteristics of regional development, risks of regional development, correlation and regression analysis, large corporate structures, regional development tools

Introduction

Potential for the development of individual territories depends on the economic structure and the specifics of the business structures prevailing in the regions. In the field of state and regional management, the adoption of effective management decisions to a large extent depends on the selection of the right areas of impact on those types of businesses that form the largest share of value-added. Besides, when choosing the instruments of regional administration, it is required to use only those, which, with a minimum impact, will lead to maximum costeffectiveness. To understand the choice of such tools, it is necessary to assess the contribution of specific businesses types to the creation of both gross domestic and regional products. Recent statistics show the significant role of the construction business in the development of the Russian economy (6% of GDP).

Today, the approach of assessing the multiplicative effects of the activities of a particular type of business is widespread in the scientific literature [Kievsky, 2014; Tatarkin et al., 2015]. Since the construction business provides a significant multiplier effect in the development of both national and regional economy, a quantitative assessment of this type of economic activity in creating the gross domestic product is of interest.

Methodology for assessing the contribution of the corporate structures of construction business to the economic development of territories

Appropriate modeling methods and techniques are used to study the dynamics of specific types of economic activity. They are based on the analysis of the quantitative dependence of the resulting indicator on factors influencing it. The implementation of such dependence is possible through the use of economic statistics, namely, using correlation-regression modeling. The advantage of this methodology is the possibility for revealing a causal relationship between the studied values. We can trace how much Y will change due to a change in X, as well as predicting the value of the dependent variable Y using one or more variables of Xn. It turns out that we can quantitatively determine the contribution of individual independent variables to the inconstancy of the studied dependent value. The result of correlation-regression modeling is the equation that looks as follows [Vlasov, Shimko, 2005]:

when: an - parameter with an independent variable, which is showing how much Y will change when xn shifts by 1. Additionally, if the connection between x and Y is linear (a1> 0), then an increase in x leads to an increase in Y, but if the connection between x and Y is inverse (a1 <0), an increase in x leads to a decrease in Y.

The complex determination of external factors on the development of the regional economy implies the need to improve and further develop elements of the regional corporate structures support system. It must contain adaptive properties and flexible response to dynamically changing conditions in the socio-economic and political spheres of the region.

The analysis of scientific sources [Ivanovsky, 2017; Kazakova, Golubeva, 2016; Nikulina, 2015; Olatalo et al., 2017; Salyamova, 2014] made it possible to summarize the characteristics of the construction business that have significant impact on the development of national and regional economies: the number of employees, depreciation of fixed assets and the commissioning of new ones, labor productivity, and investments.

To summarize, the initial data for the differential diagnosis for assessing the construction business' contribution to the development of the national economy can be presented as follows:

Ynational - gross domestic product, million rubles;

x1 - the average annual number of people employed in the Russian construction, thousand people;

x2 - labor productivity index in the Russian construction business, %;

x3 - the depreciation degree of fixed assets in the Russian construction business at the end of the year, %;

x4 - the number of high-performance jobs in the Russian construction business, thousand units;

x3 - commissioning of fixed assets in the Russian construction business, million rubles;

x6 - the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a lack of construction vehicles and mechanisms from the total number of the corporate structures in construction business, %;

x7 - dynamics of investments in fixed assets in the Russian construction business, % to the previous year.

We used the sections of OKVED (All-Russia Classifier of Types of Economic Activities) to apply and identify these indicators of quantitative data to the Federal State Statistics Service data, including the construction business.

The input data for the comparative diagnostics of the construction business corporate structures' contribution to the development of the national economy are the values of the presented indicators of Ynational and x1 - x7 for the period 2010-2017 (according to official statistics).

For calculations, we used a specific statistical data processing software “StatSoft Statistica 10.0” (hereinafter “Statistica”). A significant stage in the calculation is to obtain the coefficients for each xn, which is listed as the contribution of the corresponding indicator to the change in the dependent variable Y; it is shown in Figure 1.

The following formula, based on the above-described approach, represents the correlation-regression model for assessing the contribution of the construction business to the development of the national economy:

For the effective management of the selected factors, the coefficients with the corresponding xn are significant. They characterize the contribution of each indicator to the development of the national economy.

The practical value of this approach is to determine the quantitative relationship between the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product and the factors that determine its change. The economic interpretation of the modeling results is presented in the following form:

x1 - the average annual number of people employed in the construction business in the Russian Federation (here we see the following dependence: with an increase by 1 thousand employees in the construction business, the Gross Domestic Product decreases by 0.59 billion rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the number of people employed in the construction business in the Russian Federation does not ensure the creation of added value, but rather serves as a factor in reducing economic growth, which is most likely associated with an enormous quantities of foreign citizens attracted to the construction business;

x2 - labor productivity index in the Russian construction business (here we see the following dependence: with a 1% increase in labor productivity index in the Russian construction business, the Gross Domestic Product decreases by 0.01 billion rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the number of people employed in the construction business in the Russian Federation does not ensure the creation of added value, but rather serves as a factor in reducing economic growth, which is most likely associated with technological backwardness and obsolescence of fixed assets in this area. However, due to the insignificant size of the coefficient of this indicator, this dependence should not be taken into account as a primary one, especially when developing ways to support construction business enterprises;

x3 - the depreciation degree of fixed assets in the Russian construction business (here we see the following dependence: with a 1% increase in the depreciation of fixed assets in the Russian construction business, the Gross Domestic Product increases by 1.04 billion rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, this means that today the volume of Gross Domestic Product continues to grow despite an increase in the deterioration of fixed assets in construction, which is due to inflationary factors, and not the physical creation of added value;

x4 - the number of high-performance jobs in the Russian construction business (here we see the following dependence: with an increase by 1 thousand high-performance jobs in the Russian construction business, the Gross Domestic Product increases by 0.12 billion rubles). This correct dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, and this emphasizes the significant impact of this factor on the creation of a country's added value;

x3 - the commissioning of fixed assets in the Russian construction business (here we see the following dependence: with an increase by 1 million rubles in the volume of commissioning of fixed assets in the Russian construction business, the Gross Domestic Product increases by 1.17 billion rubles). This correct dependence is explained by the fact that the calculated value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which is associated not only with the commissioning of capacities but with their further sale and its significant impact on the growth of consumer demand. This indicates the significant impact of this factor on the making of the Gross Domestic Product;

x6 - the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a shortage of construction machines and mechanisms among all construction business' corporate structures (here we see the following dependence: with a 1% increase in the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a shortage of construction machines and mechanisms among all construction business' corporate structures, the Gross Domestic Product increases by 0.34 billion rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the volume of the Gross Domestic Product in the country continues to grow despite an increase in the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a shortage of construction machines and mechanisms, which is due to inflationary factors, and not the physical creation of added value. However, due to the insignificant size of the coefficient of this indicator, this dependence should not be taken into account as a primary one, especially when developing ways to support construction business enterprises;

x7 - dynamics of investments in the Russian construction business' fixed assets (here we see the following dependence: with a 1% increase in the dynamics of investments in the Russian construction business' fixed assets, the Gross Domestic Product decreases by 0.26 billion rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the Gross Domestic Product in the country continues to grow despite the instability of investment income in the construction sphere. However, due to the insignificant size of the coefficient of this indicator, this dependence should not be taken into account as a primary one, especially when developing ways to support construction business enterprises.

Based on this equation, a correlation-regression model was calculated to assess the contribution of the construction business to the development of the territorial economy in the Moscow region (as an example). The input data for the comparative diagnostics of the construction business corporate structures' contribution to the development of the national economy are the values of the presented indicators of Yregional (Gross Regional Product) and x1 - x7 for the period of 2010-2017 for the applicable subject of the Russian Federation.

The result of the calculations is to obtain the coefficients for each xn, which is interpreted as the contribution of the corresponding indicator to the change in the dependent variable Yregional, as it is shown in Figure 2.

In practice, the benefit of these calculations lies in determining the quantitative relationship between the volume of the Gross Regional Product in the Moscow Region and the factors that determine its change. Correlation-regression model for assessing the contribution of the construction business' corporate structures to the development of the regional economy (Moscow region as an example), the calculations were based on the approach described above:

x1 - the average annual number of people employed in the construction business in the Moscow region (the following dependence can be seen: with an increase by 1 thousand people, the average annual number of people employed in the construction business of the Moscow region, the volume of the Gross Regional Product increases by 0.74 million rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the number of people employed in the construction business of the Moscow Region ensures the creation of added value for this region, which is quantitatively proved by the coefficient for the corresponding x1;

x2 - labor productivity index in the Moscow region construction business (the following dependence can be seen: with a 1% increase in the labor productivity index in the construction business of the Moscow region, the volume of the Gross Regional Product is reduced by 0.21 million rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the performance in the construction business of this region does not ensure the creation of the Gross Regional Product; on the contrary, it serves as a factor for reducing the economic growth of the region. A similar situation persists at the national level, therefore urgent intervention of the entire level of government is required;

x3 - the depreciation degree of fixed assets in the Moscow region construction business (the following dependence can be seen: with a 1% increase in the depreciation of fixed assets in the construction business of the Moscow region, the volume of Gross Regional Product increases by 0.06 million rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the volume of the Gross Regional Product continues to grow despite an increase in the deterioration of construction business' fixed assets. However, due to the insignificant size of the coefficient of this indicator, this dependence should not be taken into account as a primary one, especially when developing ways to support construction business enterprises;

x4 - the number of high-performance jobs in the Moscow region construction business (the following dependence can be seen: with an increase by 1 thousand high-performance jobs in the Moscow region construction business, the Gross Regional Product decreases by 0.97 million rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the volume of the Gross Regional Product continues to grow despite the decrease in the number of high-productivity jobs in the construction business. In these circumstances, the regional authorities should pay close attention to this situation;

x3 - the commissioning of fixed assets in the Moscow region construction business (the following dependence can be seen: with an increase by 1 million rubles in the volume of commissioning of fixed assets in the Moscow region construction business, the volume of Gross Regional Product increases by 2.05 million rubles). This correct dependence is explained by the fact that the calculated value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which is associated not only with the commissioning of capacities but with their further sale and its significant impact on the growth of consumer demand. A similar situation is also shown at the national level;

x6 - the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a shortage of construction machines and mechanisms among all construction business' corporate structures in the Moscow region (the following dependence can be seen: with a 1% increase in the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a shortage of construction machines and mechanisms among all construction business' corporate structures on the Moscow region, volume of the Gross Regional Product is increasing by 0.76 million rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the volume of the Gross Regional Product continues to grow despite an increase in the share of the construction business' corporate structures with a shortage of construction machines and mechanisms. A similar situation is also shown at the national level;

x7 - dynamics of investments in the Moscow region construction business' fixed assets (the following dependence can be seen: with a 1% increase in the dynamics of investments in the Moscow region construction business' fixed assets, the volume of Gross Regional Product decreases by 0.74 million rubles). This dependence is explained by the fact that the obtained value reflects the current trend of these indicators' variability, which means that today the volume of Gross Regional Product in the Moscow region continues to grow, despite the instability of investment income in the construction business. A similar situation is also shown at the national level.

Based on the developed methodological approach, we must formulate a specific model by which we can trace the influence of various factors on changes in the Gross Domestic Product or Gross Regional Product, and understand which of them have the most significant influence on the growth of the national and regional economies. Such factors serve as an instrument of influence on the economy in a particular region through the support of large corporate structures operating in the construction sphere of that region (see Table).

Table. 1. Tools to support large corporate structures selected after specific analysis, which was aimed at establishing the influence of what contribution the construction business makes to the development of the economy of territories at the national and regional levels

According to this approach, the results of the risk factors' study should be reflected in the relevant documents on the strategic planning system to achieve growth in the effectiveness of the national and regional economies, as well as ensuring economic security [Raevsky, Belyaevskaya-Plotnik, Romashin, 2017].

On the development of the construction business at the national level, only two of the seven analyzed facts have stimulating effect for the development of the country's economy: the number of high-performance jobs and the commissioning of fixed assets in the Russian construction business. Other factors have an inhibitory effect on the development of the country's economy. It can be argued, that it is necessary to make a targeted impact on the constraint factors. Elimination of these circumstances is significant for the further development of the country's economy. In our opinion, this is a more efficient tool for economic regulation than just using incentive measures.

At the regional level, the results of differential diagnostics of the construction business' impact on the development of the Moscow Region showed that the greatest influence is exerted by such factors as: the commissioning of fixed assets (has a direct influence on the dynamics of GRP growth) and the number of high-performance jobs (has an inverse effect on the dynamics of GRP).

Conclusion

The developed model complex makes it possible to single out precisely those factors that government bodies should pay attention to in the first place (to determine policy directions to support the construction business' corporate structures in the region).

We should especially note some factors that at the state and regional levels have a different nature of the impact on economic development. Among these, we can single out the factor of the number of highly productive jobs in the construction business, which at the national level has a direct impact on the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product and has a stimulating effect on the development of the country's economy as a whole. But at the regional level, this factor has an inverse effect on the dynamics of the Gross Regional Product and has an inhibitory effect on the development of the Moscow Region's economy. The analysis is of great practical importance since it shows the incorrect use of the same mechanisms for managing the construction business at the national and regional levels, explains the importance of usage of diverse approaches to support large corporate structures in this sphere because you have to consider the needs of each particular territory.

At the same time, the ranking of these factors, depending on the size of the coefficients with the corresponding Xn, affects the choice of measures' application sequence in state and regional policies. Thus, the ranking factor for the number of high-performance jobs in the construction business at the national level is penultimate, which means that even it has a direct stimulating effect on the growth dynamics of Gross Domestic Product, there is no practical benefit to use it as primary measures for supporting the construction business. At the same time, at the regional level, this factor is in second place in the ranking list, which indicates the need for its predominant use in regional management. Therefore, the development of the construction business in the Moscow region directly depends on large corporate structures with the formation of conditions to increase the number of high-performance jobs. It is also important to improve the supply of fixed assets with construction equipment, develop infrastructure, increase the number of high-performance jobs in the region, including training (or retraining) personnel for new or improved job places.

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