Russian aggression as a factor of the migratory crisis and transformation of labour market in Ukraine

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RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AS A FACTOR OF THE MIGRATORY CRISIS AND TRANSFORMATION OF LABOUR MARKET IN UKRAINE

Zinaida Smutchak,

doctor of economic sciences, professor, Head of the Department of Management of Aviation activity Flight Academy of National Aviation University. Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine

Oksana Ursol,

candidate of pedagogical sciences, associate professor, associate professor of the department of law and social and humanitarian disciplines Flight Academy of National Aviation University. Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine

Abstract

The article reveals the situation in the Ukrainian labour market, which developed as a result of the full-scale Russian invasion and the associated with international migration. The main trends of the labour market are described. Today, on the Ukrainian labour market, the demand for labour significantly exceeds its supply. As a result of the economic upheavals, accompanied by large-scale internal displacement and refugee flows, there is a huge loss of jobs and income. The economic damages associated with human losses as a result of the armed aggression of the russian federation are characterized. Attention is paid to migration as a key factor affecting the labour market. The need for short-term and longterm assistance to refugees and migrants who left Ukraine and other forcibly displaced persons was emphasized. Directions for updating the employment policy of the post-war economy are proposed. Large-scale labor migration of Ukrainians brings significant benefits to the economy, because it becomes a mechanism for reducing the level of poverty, unemployment and financial burden on the state, as well as a stabilizer of the macroeconomic situation in the country. However, the mass outflow of workforce, and in connection with full-scale war and the mass outflow of refugees, puts under a threat to the post-war recovery of the country, after all the implementation of strategic plans and programs requires a sufficient number of workers resources. During hostilities and post-war reconstruction, state policy measures in the field of preservation and use of human capital should be as effective as possible. The migration of highly skilled labour is a rather big problem for Ukraine, which can turn into a national disaster.

Keywords: workforce; migration; international migration; labour market; forced displacements; internal displacements; military aggression; human capital.

Анотація

Російська агресія як фактор міграційної кризи та трансформації ринку праці в Україні. Смутчак Зінаїда Василівна, доктор економічних наук, професор, завідувач кафедри менеджменту авіаційної діяльності Льотної академії Національного авіаційного університету. Кропивницький, Україна. Урсол Оксана Володимирівна, кандидат педагогічних наук, доцент, доцент кафедри права та соціально-гуманітарних дисциплін Льотної академії Національного авіаційного університету. Кропивницький, Україна.

У статті розкривається ситуація на українському ринку праці, яка склалася внаслідок повномасштабного російського вторгнення та пов'язана з міжнародною міграцією. Зазначено основні тенденції ринку праці. Сьогодні на українському ринку праці попит на робочу силу значно перевищує її пропозицію. У результаті економічних потрясінь, що супроводжуються масштабними внутрішніми переміщеннями і потоками біженців, відбувається величезна втрата робочих місць і доходів. Охарактеризовано економічні збитки, пов'язані з людськими втратами внаслідок збройної агресії російської федерації. Приділено увагу міграції як ключовому фактору, що впливає на ринок праці. Наголошено на необхідності допомоги у короткостроковій та довгостроковій перспективі біженцям та мігрантам, які виїхали з України, та іншим вимушено переміщеним особам. Запропоновано напрями оновлення політики зайнятості повоєнної економіки. Масштабна трудова міграція українців приносить значну користь економіці, адже стає механізмом зниження рівня бідності, безробіття та фінансового навантаження на державу, а також стабілізатором макроекономічної ситуації в країні. Проте масовий відтік робочої сили, а у зв'язку з повномасштабною війною і масовий відтік біженців, ставить під загрозу післявоєнне відновлення країни, адже реалізація стратегічних планів і програм вимагає достатньої кількості робочих ресурсів. У період воєнних дій та післявоєнної відбудови заходи державної політики у сфері збереження та використання людського капіталу мають бути максимально ефективними. Міграція висококваліфікованої робочої сили є досить великою проблемою для України, яка може обернутися національною катастрофою.

Ключові слова: робоча сила; міграція; міжнародна міграція; ринок праці; вимушені переміщення; внутрішні зміщення; військова агресія; людський капітал

labor market aggression armed

Introduction

Formulation of the problem. The problem of the loss of the country's human capital, which is caused by the departure of millions of Ukrainian citizens abroad in search of asylum due to military operations, as well as large-scale labour migration, is especially acute today, when the state is already planning reconstruction and recovery after the war. Critically important for the economy is the issue of the country's labour supply, as evidenced by the experience of foreign countries that conduct a systematic and coordinated policy of attracting immigrants to cover the labour shortage in their own labour markets. Ukraine significantly loses to other countries in attracting workforce, primarily due to the practical absence of a state migratory policy. Concentration on solving current problems and the lack of strategic planning can be very expensive for the economy, so it is necessary to develop mechanisms for the returning of labour migrants, refugees and the attraction of foreign workers to Ukraine. Undoubtedly, the main role in this process belongs to the state, which should create favourable conditions for such a «returning», stimulate business and local self-government also to participate in this process.

Analysis of recent research and publications. The modern theoretical and methodological basis of the study of migratory flows of the population is made up of numerous works of native and foreign scientists. In Ukraine, the works of A. Haydutskyi [20], K. Kononenko [18] are devoted to the study of migratory processes, problems of human trafficking and illegal migration are considered in the studies of A. Punda [17], A. Topchiya, T. Shevchenko [15] and other native researchers. Important studies on this issue are presented by the names of foreign scientists, such as B. Anderson, B. Rogali [14], S. Castles [19], P. Stalker [16] and many others. These scientists properly revealed the essence of the phenomenon of migration, its typology, regularities, factors, specificity and peculiarities of manifestation in various economic conditions.

However, the issues of regulating migratory flows (especially of an illegal nature) remain insufficiently studied due to lack of adequate awareness of this problem.

Aim and tasks

The purpose of the article is to analyze international labour migration and the related situation on the labour market in Ukraine, caused by the full- scale invasion of russia.

According to this goal, the article sets the following tasks: to analyze the situation in the Ukrainian labour market as a result of the full-scale russian invasion; to investigate the migratory activity of the population as a key factor affecting the labour market; to propose directions for updating the employment policy of the post-war economy.

The theoretical backgrounds

In the modern conditions of the transformational economy and the full-scale invasion of russia, the problem of employment of the population of Ukraine, the creation of a labour market and the prevention of unemployment receives special attention. Note that the labour market occupies one of the main places among other markets, and the market situation is formed under the influence of the state of the economy, the way of management and structural changes, the technical and organizational level of the enterprise, the quantitative and qualitative balance of the means of production and the workforce. Under the conditions of the development of economic relations, the integration of Ukraine into the world community, the problem of formation and use of labour potential acquires special importance, since it reflects the state of society, industry, territory, enterprises, their viability and those trends that have developed due to the development of production and the system of social and labour relations Without realizing the potential of labour resources, it is practically impossible to ensure the effective use of technical, financial and informational resources. This indicates that solving issues related to the formation of research stages, objective assessment and analysis of the effectiveness of the use of labour potential in order to identify and take into account its existing and potential opportunities are extremely relevant today.

Research methods

To solve the set goal, theoretical methods of scientific research were used: analytical - for collecting, summarizing and processing scientific information regarding the state of development of migratory processes; abstract-logical - to determine the motivational factors of population movements; analogies and comparisons - to determine measures of influence on labour migration; generalization - for formulating conclusions based on research results. Also general scientific methods such as synthesis, systematization are used in the study.

Results of the research

Russian aggression in Ukraine has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis, spurring the fastest forced displacement since World War II. After 24 February 2022, more than 5,23 million refugees fled fighting in neighboring countries, namely Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary and Slovakia. A significant number of refugees - more than 1.48 million people - left for other countries. At the same time, approximately 7,7 million people have become internally displaced due to the conflict fas of April 17, 2022) [1].

In general, according to estimates, up to 70% of the population of Ukraine was affected by hostilities [2]. In addition, 208,000 citizens of non-EU countries, including many migrant workers and students, fled Ukraine to neighboring countries. The Ukrainian economy has already suffered greatly from the aggression. Due to the damage to the infrastructure and the closing of businesses in many areas of the country, economic activity has stopped. According to some rough estimates, 50% of businesses have closed, and infrastructure facilities, buildings, roads, bridges, hospitals, schools and other tangible assets with a total value of 60 to 100 billion dollars. The US was damaged or destroyed in the first month of the conflict [3].

As a result of the closure of Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, grain exports from the country decreased by approximately 90%, and the total volume of exports decreased by half. As a result of these serious economic consequences, Ukraine's GDP is expected to decline significantly in 2022, with available estimates varying. In March 2022, the IMF estimated the losses at between 25% and 35%, while the World Bank projects losses in 2022 at 45% of GDP. If the protracted crisis continues and expands, 90% of the population may face poverty or the risk of poverty, the loss of 18 years of socio-economic achievements of Ukraine and a return to the level of poverty that was last recorded in 2004 [4]. In the context of the above, it should be noted that the geography of vacancies has also changed significantly: the share of vacancies for remote work has increased, and some Ukrainian companies are actively posting vacancies abroad (primarily in Poland).

It is worth noting that one of the tools of labour market regulation is the determination of optimal mechanisms for labour mobility regulation. Labour mobility is an organic feature of the workforce, which characterizes its readiness and ability to change workplaces under the influence of objective and subjective reasons. Among the forms of labour mobility are voluntary and forced, and among the types - professional qualification, career (status), intra- and inter-organizational, branch and territorial. Territorial labour mobility associated with a change of residence is labour migration. Each of the mentioned forms of labour mobility can exist on two levels - potential and real.

To establish the relationship between these levels, it is necessary to determine the potential degree of readiness and ability of certain groups of the economically active population to change the workplace ffor example, by conducting a survey) and analyze the main factors contributing to the transformation of potential mobility into real.

The deployment of hostilities forced a significant part of the population to leave their permanent place of residence: 22% changed their place of residence within Ukraine, in particular, among the population aged 18-24 and 25-34 years - 36% and 34% respectively, 6% were forced to go abroad population of Ukraine [5]. According to estimates of the United Nations Refugee Agency fUNHCR), five million Ukrainians have already crossed international borders from Ukraine. As of midMarch, 70,000 children became refugees in Ukraine every day. According to the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), this means that 55 children fled the country every minute, that is, almost one child every second [6]. An accurate assessment of the international distribution of forced migrants from Ukraine is currently impossible, as migrants change their plans and country of destination, sometimes not even registering for temporary protection, but using the right to stay in EU countries for 90 days without registration. Another social and humanitarian challenge to the distribution of available and potential labour is internal displacement. According to the estimates of the International Organization for Migration, in the first month of the war, 6,48 million people became internally displaced persons in Ukraine, among whom the share of the most socially vulnerable groups is significant [7].

Due to the duration of the hostilities, these numbers are not final, but the delay in time increases the likelihood that internally displaced persons will change their place of residence and look for permanent housing and employment. All this will lead to a change in the structure of labour supply and demand, which is a new challenge for the post-war labour market. As a result of economic upheavals, accompanied by large-scale internal population movements and refugee flows, there are huge losses of jobs and incomes of the population. According to ILO estimates, in the current situation of the active phase of the conflict, compared to the situation before the conflict, 4,8 million jobs have been lost, which is 30% of the jobs that existed in Ukraine before the beginning of the conflict. An immediate cessation of hostilities could rapidly improve the situation and restore 3,4 million jobs, reducing employment losses to 8,9%.

In the event of further military escalation, employment losses could rise even further, up to 7 million jobs, or 43,5%. In addition, the crisis had a significant impact on the Ukrainian social security system, which was reflected in an increase in expenses and a decrease in income. In the context of the above, it is worth noting the economic losses associated with human losses as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the State Statistics Service, GDP per person in 2021 amounted to UAH 131,944. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, as of April 24.2022; 5,718 cases of death or injury of civilians were recorded in Ukraine: 2,665 dead and 3,053 wounded. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of April 25.2022, the number of people who left Ukraine since the beginning of the war reached 5,3 million people. Taking into account the given data and assuming that the share of irreversible migrants will be about 50%, the total amount of economic losses related to the human losses of the war will amount to UAH 348,5 billion, or 6,3% of GDP. And this is only in one year. In ten years, this is already 3,5 trillion. hryvnias not received by the economy. Or $116 billion. (according to the NBU exchange rate, UAH 29,25/dollar). This is in addition to the destroyed housing stock of 115 billion dollars, as well as to the losses of industrial enterprises and unearned profits - another 200-250 billion dollars.

The number of refugees and forcibly displaced persons who left Ukraine for neighbouring countries is approximately 5,23 million. According to ILO estimates, about 1,2 million people worked out of the total number of refugees before the start of the aggression. Two-thirds of them have a higher education, and 49% are employed in professions that require high qualifications. Most of the refugees are women with children. If hostilities in Ukraine continue, refugees will have to remain in exile for longer, which will cause an additional burden on the labour markets and social protection systems of neighbouring countries. In the absence of the necessary measures, the overall unemployment rate in many of these countries will increase significantly. Millions of refugees moved to neighbouring countries. Despite signs of population mobility and some significant movement westward, a limited number of refugees return home.

There is now a high likelihood that the crisis will drag on, with the UN predicting a continued rise in the number of refugees in the coming months. If the escalation of hostilities forces refugees to stay in host countries longer than expected, they may seek employment in those countries' labour markets. Among the refugees, mostly women, children and people over 60 years old. According to ILO estimates, of the total number of refugees, approximately 2,75 million are of working age. Of these, 43,5%, or 1,2 million, were working before the conflict began, and during the conflict they quit or lost their jobs. More than 87% of previously employed refugees worked full-time. The vast majority (88%) were employees of enterprises, and the remaining 12% were self-employed. Two thirds have a higher level of education. Almost half (49%) were engaged in high-skilled work, and only 15% were represented in low-skilled occupations.

Ukrainian migrants bring benefits to the economy, and the main one is the stability of the national currency. After all, investments in Ukraine are small, and imports significantly exceed foreign exchange earnings from exports. For example, only in 2019-2021, thanks to migrants' remittances, the balance of payments balance was plus 8 billion US dollars. Without these such transfers, the balance would be negative and equal to minus 30 billion dollars. Migration also helps reduce the level of poverty and reduce the number of unemployed [20].

Poland faces the most acute problem of integrating refugees into the labour market - even from the point of view of their number only: according to estimates, currently there are 410,000 previously employed refugees living in the country, including 200,000 highly skilled, 146,000 medium-skilled, and 64,000 low-skilled. refugees who worked in Ukraine before the beginning of the conflict. Approximately 140,000 Ukrainians who lost their jobs during the hostilities are in Romania. The most difficult thing abroad now is for migrant workers who work illegally. Because they voluntarily deprive themselves of all rights and cannot use the social support of the country where they are. In European countries, there is a fairly high level of medical and social insurance, which reliably protects not only citizens, but also those who are officially employed. The terms of employment, which are written in the employment agreement, cannot be too strict, otherwise they can be challenged. When labour migrants choose a work schedule of 10-12 hours a day, it is often not a requirement of the employer, but their desire to earn more.

It should be noted that it is profitable for foreign employers to deal with illegal migrant workers, because persons who have arrived in the country for the purpose of earning money on illegal grounds do not have legal and social protection. Moreover, they are forced to accept any work - seasonal, difficult and dangerous; the tariff rates that are set for them are much lower than for citizens of their country. Foreign labour migrants from Ukraine in many countries are forced to work long hours and under harmful working conditions, have limited or no access to medical care and social protection, are unprotected from low wages, occupational injuries, and illnesses. Today, the demand for work in the Ukrainian labour market significantly exceeds its supply. According to the State Employment Service, in April, 283,356 unemployed people applied for 25,326 vacancies, i.e. the competition for one job was almost 12 people. According to the portal grc.ua, the level of competition for one workplace in April was somewhat lower and amounted to 7 people on average. Nevertheless, there are professional areas in which this indicator is much higher due to the almost complete lack of job offers [13].

The largest numbers of vacancies are open for specialists in the field of sales (18,6%), in the field of IT, the Internet (13,5%), for specialists in the field of transport and logistics (9%), working personnel (8,8%), in construction (5,9%), in medicine and pharmaceuticals (5,3%). These specialists, in addition to specialists in the field of construction, were most in demand since the beginning of the war. As for builders and other specialists in the field of construction, the positive dynamics of the increase in job offers for them began to be traced from April 2022. It is now most difficult to find work for lawyers, insurers, service workers, security guards, teachers and scientists, domestic staff, specialists who worked in the field of automobile business, purchases. Vacancies are the least relevant for them now. Refugees and migrants who have left Ukraine and other forcibly displaced persons need assistance in the short and long term, including access to the labour market and social protection, as provided for in the 2016 ILO Tripartite Guidelines on Access for Refugees and Other forcibly displaced persons to the labour market and ILO Recommendation No 205 [8].

Such assistance can be grouped along five main dimensions:

• providing refugees and displaced persons with social protection, including cash payments, in order to provide them with a stable income and access to health care services;

• ensuring the exchange of Ukrainian currency for the currency of the host country: the central banks of some countries neighbouring Ukraine have expanded their SWOP lines with a fixed exchange rate;

• ensuring childcare and access to schooling to minimize long-term human capital losses and allow parents to enter the labour markets of host countries;

• promoting integration into formal labour markets by minimizing legal obstacles and facilitating the recognition of prior education, work experience and qualifications of refugees, migrants and other forcibly displaced persons;

• providing job search assistance through public employment services of host countries, which can play a crucial role in identifying refugees' professional skills and applying these skills according to the needs of the host country's labour market, as well as in facilitating refugees' job search.

It should be emphasized that the labour market policy should be bipolar and focus on both the internal segment and the external segment - forced migrants outside the country. Regarding the internal labour market: despite its significant gaps, imbalances, huge losses caused by the war, it is necessary to create conditions for the development of internal mobility in all the above- mentioned forms. Obviously, during the recovery period, there will be a demand for labour related to overcoming the consequences of the destruction of the economy, rebuilding territories, enterprises, and the housing stock. This will require labour displacement. At the same time, revival must take place on a new basis, which will cause the need for new knowledge and skills. In parallel, it is necessary to carry out structural transformation of the economy with corresponding transformations of the labour market. Opportunities to restore the economy and the social and labour sphere should be sought even during military operations - in territories not involved in the conflict. Any opportunities should be used for the revival of institutions, markets and enterprises; infrastructure reconstruction; restoration of trust and expectations. At the end of hostilities, the dividends of peace should be used to improve the life and wellbeing of the population. The most important thing for the rapid recovery of the economy is the provision of jobs and opportunities for decent employment. This already requires the formulation of the main principles and directions of the updated employment policy of the post-war economy, which should include three main directions fsee fig.).

The first should focus on emergency provision of employment and income under the conditions of stabilization of security and socio-humanitarian stability for groups of persons affected by the war. The second direction should provide for the creation of conditions for the restoration and reintegration of the local economy of the host communities. And the last direction of the creation and development of jobs should be based on the principles of the concept of decent work and provide for the development of the institutional capacity of the labour market and social dialogue at the national level

The success of the restoration of the social and labour sphere is the basic principles of creating and supporting national leadership, forming economic conditions for reducing the level of conflict and tension in post-war society, which reduces the level of spending on security measures and significantly reduces the level of criminalization of society. The introduction of specially targeted measures aimed at creating jobs specifically for the youth who will be released from the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the war and immediately after the establishment of peace should be an economic and political imperative of the state employment policy and donor allocations.

In addition, efforts should be directed to the preservation and stabilization of enterprise personnel. Considerable reserves in this direction include flexible forms of labour organization and its payment. Preservation of the human potential of the state is its highest target priority. In the period of military actions and in the times of post-war reconstruction, measures of state policy in the field of preservation and use of human capital should be as effective as possible. Ensuring the mobility of the workforce, which determines the level of adaptability to changes in working conditions and contributes to meeting the needs of enterprises in the workforce, remains important for attracting the workforce to the field of employment in wartime and the period of economic recovery.

Conclusions and prospects for further research

The migration of highly qualified labour force is a rather big problem for Ukraine, which can turn into a national disaster. The lack of sufficient and unambiguous information on the scale and regional characteristics of the migration of Ukrainians abroad and the quantitative flows of migratory capital, the size of which constitutes a significant share of the social and investment financial resources of the country, is particularly relevant. The situation is not threatening for current generations, as we now have the positive effect of filling the budget with remittances from labour migrants. But in the long term, when labour migrants acquire the status of emigrants and join the numerous Ukrainian diaspora, this effect will gradually lose its significance.

It is worth emphasizing that labour migration is resorted to not only by persons placed in hopeless conditions due to a difficult socio-economic situation and military aggression by Russia. Modular surveys prove that the profile of a migrant's personal qualities includes such traits as activity, initiative, and purposefulness, readiness to invest and overcome numerous difficulties. It is the profile of a potential entrepreneur. And, most importantly, migrant workers have the ability to integrate into a foreign economic and cultural environment. Therefore, the still unresolved problem of the return of labour migrants is complicated by a new requirement for the development of a high-quality, effective, bureaucracy-free, discrimination, and underfunding system for the reintegration of labour migrants, which determines the prospects for further research.

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