State and prospects of development of the modern labor market of Ukraine
The trends in the labor market of Ukraine. Detailed analysis of the number of unemployed from 2016 to 2021, the number of employed in business entities in Ukraine as a whole and separately in industry and metallurgy for the period from 2010 to 2021.
| Рубрика | Экономика и экономическая теория |
| Вид | статья |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 27.12.2023 |
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State and prospects of development of the modern labor market of Ukraine
Bessonova Anna, Assistant at the Department of Enterprise Economics State Higher Education Institution "Pryazovskyi State Technical University"
Introduction
The labor market is most often presented as a system of economic relations arising between an employer, who is willing to increase the efficiency and profitability of his business by hiring employees, and employees, who are looking for paid work and are ready to start it. The labor market is a kind of mirror of the internal situation in the country due to crises, geopolitical changes and emergency situations.
Ukraine's labor market has undergone several major changes in recent years: the first Russian invasion in 2013-14, the pandemic of 2020-21, and a full-scale war with Russia in 2022 significantly affected the scale of mortality, migration and business bankruptcy, and therefore the main indicators of the general situation on the labor market - the number of employed and unemployed also changed. The author conducted a detailed analysis of the number of unemployed in Ukraine from 2016 to 2021, the number of employed in Ukraine as a whole and separately in industry and metallurgy for the period from 2010 to 2021.
Overview of recent research and publications
Labor market analysis will always be a relevant area of research for many scientists. The methodology of labor market analysis is described in the works of Paul Maarek [8], Johannes Geyer [9], Helene Juillard [10]. The works devoted to a general survey of the situation on the labor market of Ukraine are by Makarchuk O. [5], Goncharenko N. [6], Hlinchevska S. [7].
The challenges of the Ukrainian labor market are reflected in the works of Aksonova I. [11], Blyzniuk V. [12], and the prospects of its future development - in the studies of Pyshchulina O., Markevych K. [13], Jean-Christophe Dumont [14], and Kasper Andersen [15].
Formulation of the problem
The purpose of the article is to study the trends in the labor market of Ukraine for the period from 2010 to 2021 by analyzing the employed and unemployed population with a special focus on the field of metallurgy.
The basic material and the results
The analysis of the number of employees in business entities in Ukraine for 2010-2019 showed that the highest indicators were observed in 2010, when 11 million people were considered employed, of which 2.8 million were individual entrepreneurs or their employees. In 2013 and 2014, due to the first invasion of the Russian army in Ukraine, the number of employed people significantly decreased (by about 11.66% compared to 2012), as the country faced a significant crisis in all spheres of activity and production, a large part of the population remained in the occupied territory or was forced to leave Ukraine. In 2017-2018, although a slow but steady process of labor force recovery began, the number of employed people in Ukraine began to gradually increase again. In 2019, about 9 million people were considered employed, which is more than 10,93% compared to the statistically worst year 2016 (Table 1). In all the years of the study, a steady increase in the number of individual entrepreneurs and their employees was observed.
The general trend of changes in the number of employees in Ukrainian enterprises is shown in Figure 1
Table 1 Analysis of the number of employed workers in Ukraine for 2010-2019[1]
|
Number of persons employed of business entities excluding banks |
||||
|
Years |
total, persons |
Including natural entities- entrepreneurs, persons |
in % to the total of business entities of corresponding type of economic activity |
|
|
2010 |
10772790 |
2814538 |
26,1 |
|
|
2011 |
10164516 |
2371410 |
23,3 |
|
|
2012 |
9957533 |
2277866 |
22,9 |
|
|
2013 |
9729076 |
2322582 |
23,9 |
|
|
2014 |
8796671 |
2498180 |
28,4 |
|
|
2015 |
8180031 |
2290330 |
28,0 |
|
|
2016 |
8108325 |
2307185 |
28,5 |
|
|
2017 |
8141038 |
2328116 |
28,6 |
|
|
2018 |
8532430 |
2572956 |
30,2 |
|
|
2019 |
9017813 |
2610276 |
28,9 |
Figure 1. Change in the number of employed workers in Ukraine for 2010-2019, persons [1]
However, although there are no publicly available statistics on the number of people employed during the pandemic, data on the number of unemployed indicate another crisis in the labor market and a decrease in the number of people employed. Moreover, after the end of the full-scale war, which began in February 2022 and is still ongoing, Ukraine will face the most acute crisis in the labor market in the entire history of independence, because a very large number of people were killed at the front or during shelling, and an even greater level of losses in the labor market will relate to severely injured people who will no longer be able to work effectively or will lose their ability to work as a result of the injury.
The author analyzed the total number of employees in industry and separately in metallurgical production. Contrary to the general trend, the number of people employed in industry and separately in metallurgy is constantly decreasing (Table 2). This is due to the active development of IT specialties, which are better paid and have more comfortable working conditions, the constant decline in the image and popularity of physical work in factories, and the requirements of the pandemic - a decrease in direct contact between employees and a preference for remote work.
As can be seen from the data of the analysis, the number of workers in industry and separately in metallurgical production is constantly decreasing. This is shown in Figures 2-4.
Table 2 Analysis of the number of employees in industrial and metallurgical production, 2010-2019[1]
|
Number of persons employed of business entities |
|||||
|
Type of activity |
Year |
total, persons |
Including natural entities-entrepreneurs, persons |
in % to the total of business entities of corresponding type of economic activity |
|
|
Industry |
2010 |
3291924 |
200105 |
6,1 |
|
|
2011 |
3220837 |
174971 |
5,4 |
||
|
2012 |
3209552 |
183147 |
5,7 |
||
|
2013 |
3103735 |
178844 |
5,8 |
||
|
2014 |
2606348 |
176729 |
6,8 |
||
|
2015 |
2417869 |
165735 |
6,9 |
||
|
2016 |
2351522 |
174640 |
7,4 |
||
|
2017 |
2334361 |
182708 |
7,8 |
||
|
2018 |
2317627 |
207601 |
9,0 |
||
|
2019 |
2254441 |
198069 |
8,8 |
||
|
Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment |
2010 |
377578 |
17352 |
4,6 |
|
|
2011 |
353201 |
13992 |
4,0 |
||
|
2012 |
358142 |
14261 |
4,0 |
||
|
2013 |
329491 |
13916 |
4,2 |
||
|
2014 |
295160 |
14709 |
5,0 |
||
|
2015 |
272862 |
14177 |
5,2 |
||
|
2016 |
248095 |
14578 |
5,9 |
||
|
2017 |
237480 |
14355 |
6,0 |
||
|
2018 |
232371 |
15856 |
6,8 |
||
|
2019 |
220269 |
15196 |
6,9 |
||
|
Metallurgical Production |
2010 |
265360 |
585 |
0,2 |
|
|
2011 |
243155 |
662 |
0,3 |
||
|
2012 |
242775 |
490 |
0,2 |
||
|
2013 |
213328 |
459 |
0,2 |
||
|
2014 |
199240 |
483 |
0,2 |
||
|
2015 |
183651 |
391 |
0,2 |
||
|
2016 |
160370 |
429 |
0,3 |
||
|
2017 |
146633 |
443 |
0,3 |
||
|
2018 |
135490 |
485 |
0,4 |
||
|
2019 |
123740 |
467 |
0,4 |
Figure 2. Number of persons employed in industry, 2010-2019 [1]
In contrast to the study of the number of employees, the author also analyzed the level of unemployment in Ukraine for the period from 2016 to 2021.
The analysis of the number of officially registered unemployed in 2016-2019 showed that the number of unemployed increases in the winter months of the year, and significantly decreases in the summer, which can be explained by seasonal work abroad, agricultural work and water resorts. From the analysis data it can be seen that 2018 was statistically the best year in the studied period, because then all categories of data reached their lowest values - on average only 299.7 thousand people were registered as unemployed during the year (Figure 5).
Figure 3. The number of people employed in metallurgy compared to industry as a whole, 2010-2019, persons [1]
Figure 4. Comparative analysis of the number of employees in metallurgical production and production of finished metal products and separately in metallurgical production, 2010-2019 [1]
The worst year in the analyzed period was 2016, with the highest unemployment rates in the last four years - an average of403 thousand people. This is due to the consequences of Russia's first invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of part of two regions of the country, which were considered to be among the most densely populated.
Figure 5. Analysis of the number of unemployed in Ukraine for 2016-2019 [2]
The general trend of the number of unemployed in Ukraine was a gradual decrease in the level of unemployment from year to year (about 403 thousand in 2016, 351 thousand in 2017, 299,7 thousand in 2018), but in 2019 the number of unemployed increased to 306.8 thousand people on average per year. The study shows that in the average number of unemployed women make a larger share by gender (from 54.25% to 55.16% of the total number) [4].
In addition, the analysis of 2019 made it possible to reveal in more detail the rates of change in the number of unemployed in Ukraine during the year (Figure 6).
Table 3 shows general data on the number of unemployed in Ukraine for each month from 2016 to 2019 in general by country, as well as separately by gender. The author also calculated the percentage ratio of the unemployment rate of women and men, as well as the average number of unemployed for each year of analysis.
As can be seen from the graph, during the warm months of the year the number of unemployed decreases (due to work in tourism, recreational facilities, seasonal work in agriculture), and in winter the number of unemployed begins to increase again.
Figure 6. The total number of registered unemployed by month in 2019, thousands of people [2]
Table 3. Research of the number of unemployed people in Ukraine for 2016-2019, thousands of people [2]
|
Years |
January |
February |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
August |
September |
October |
November |
December |
Average |
Percent |
||
|
Total |
2019 |
364,3 |
367,0 |
340,7 |
311,4 |
300,9 |
287,1 |
280,8 |
275,0 |
268,2 |
259,3 |
288,9 |
338,2 |
306,8 |
100,0 |
|
|
2018 |
378,9 |
383,7 |
366,9 |
326,8 |
316 |
303,9 |
298 |
292,8 |
287,1 |
271,4 |
301 |
341,7 |
299,7 |
100,0 |
||
|
2017 |
429 |
439,4 |
406,8 |
374,2 |
352,6 |
330,2 |
319,9 |
311,9 |
303 |
281,9 |
309 |
354,4 |
351,0 |
100,0 |
||
|
2016 |
508,6 |
508,2 |
467,5 |
434,7 |
416,4 |
388,9 |
369,7 |
355,7 |
341,5 |
316,2 |
337,9 |
390,8 |
403,0 |
100,0 |
||
|
Female |
2019 |
190,9 |
193,5 |
189,6 |
180,6 |
172,7 |
165,4 |
162,4 |
159,5 |
155,3 |
155,8 |
164,5 |
177,3 |
172,3 |
56,15 |
|
|
2018 |
197,4 |
200,5 |
197,9 |
187,2 |
181,3 |
175,7 |
173,2 |
171 |
167,2 |
165,7 |
174,4 |
184 |
167,5 |
55,88 |
||
|
2017 |
211,5 |
218,5 |
214,6 |
203,7 |
192,8 |
182,2 |
178,6 |
176,1 |
171,9 |
168,3 |
177,6 |
189,5 |
190,4 |
54,25 |
||
|
2016 |
279,1 |
277,3 |
264 |
247,4 |
231,9 |
214,8 |
203,6 |
194,7 |
186,4 |
180,3 |
184,5 |
196,6 |
221,7 |
55,02 |
||
|
Male |
2019 |
173,4 |
173,5 |
151,1 |
130,8 |
128,2 |
121,7 |
118,4 |
115,5 |
112,9 |
103,5 |
124,4 |
160,9 |
134,5 |
43,85 |
|
|
2018 |
181,5 |
183,2 |
169 |
139,6 |
134,7 |
128,2 |
124,8 |
121,8 |
119,9 |
105,7 |
126,6 |
157,7 |
132,3 |
44,12 |
||
|
2017 |
217,5 |
220,9 |
192,2 |
170,5 |
159,8 |
148 |
141,3 |
135,8 |
131,1 |
113,6 |
131,4 |
164,9 |
160,6 |
45,75 |
||
|
2016 |
229,5 |
230,9 |
203,5 |
187,3 |
184,5 |
174,1 |
166,1 |
161 |
155,1 |
135,9 |
153,4 |
194,2 |
181,3 |
44,98 |
Table 4. The number of unemployed people in Ukraine for the period 2017-2021, thousands[3]
|
Unemployment of the population in 2017-2021 |
|||
|
All population aged 15-70 years |
from January to December |
||
|
thousands of people |
in % to the economically active population of the corresponding age |
||
|
2017 |
1698,0 |
9,5 |
|
|
2018 |
1578,6 |
8,8 |
|
|
2019 |
1487,7 |
8,2 |
|
|
2020 |
1674,2 |
9,5 |
|
|
2021 |
1711,6 |
9,8 |
Figure 7. The number of unemployed people in Ukraine for 2017-2021, thousands [3]
The author conducted a study of the total annual number of unemployed in Ukraine for the period from 2017 to 2021. The results of the analysis are presented in Table 4.
As can be seen from the research data (Figure 7), from 2017 to 2019 there was a constant decrease in the number of unemployed in Ukraine: in 2018 the number of unemployed decreased by 7,03% compared to the previous year, and in 2019 the rate of decrease was -5,76% compared to 2018 and -12,38% compared to 2017. However, in 2020 Ukraine experienced a significant crisis in the labor market due to COVID-19, many enterprises (especially in the service and restaurant sector) could not function during the quarantine and in the new post-quarantine conditions, and were forced to stop business and lay off workers. Thus, the unemployment rate in 2020 increased sharply by 12.54% compared to 2019, and in 2021 the situation worsened: the number of unemployed increased by 2.23% compared to 2020 and by 15.05% compared to 2019. Also, in 2021 the unemployment rate reached (and exceeded) the initial period of the analysis for the first time - the number of unemployed in Ukraine exceeded the 2017 figure by 0,8%.
labor market unemployed metallurgy
Conclusions
Therefore, the data of the conducted research show a heterogeneous picture of the labor market of Ukraine. It was significantly affected by the invasion in 2013-14 and the global pandemic in 2020-21, as a result of which the unemployment rate increased significantly. The country has gone through several serious crises, and in 2022 faced the worst crisis in the entire history of independence - a full-scale war, which significantly affected absolutely all spheres of state functioning. The labor market also suffered great losses as a result of the war: dead from shelling, dead and seriously wounded soldiers, and refugees fleeing the war became irreversible losses of the working population of Ukraine, and in the future the general situation on the labor market will become increasingly difficult.
References
1. State Statistics Service of Ukraine: collection “Employed population by professional groups and sex”.
2. State Statistics Service of Ukraine: collection “Unemployment (according to ILO methodology) by sex, type of area and age groups”.
3. State Statistics Service of Ukraine: collection "Women and Men / Demographic and Social Statistics / Labour Market".
4. Bessonova A. (2022), “Current trends in the labor force in Ukraine”, Annual Scientific Forum «Networking on Sustainable Security in the Dynamic Environment», Kaunas, Lithuania.
5. Makarchuk O. (2017), “Statistical study of the labour market in Ukraine”, Molodyi vcheniy, № 9 (49), pp. 540-544.
6. Goncharenko N. (2018), “Analysis of the labour market and problems of employment of the population of Ukraine”, Ekonomika ta upravlinnia natsionalnym hospodarstvom, vol. 25, pp. 35-38.
7. Hlinchevska S. (2016), “Socio-economic analysis of the state of the labour market in Ukraine”, Ekonomika i orhanizatsiia upravlinnia, vol. 2 (22), pp. 319-324.
8. Paul Maarek, Elliot Moiteaux (2021), “Polarization, employment and the minimum wage: Evidence from European local labour markets”, Labour Economics, vol. 73.
9. Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan, Anna Hammerschmid, Michael Peters (2020), “Labor Market and Distributional Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age”, Labour Economics, vol. 65.
10. Helene Juillard, Ina Pietschmann, Bettina Morgenstern-Kennedy and Chloe Maillard, “Labour Market Analysis to Support the Construction Sector in humanitarian settings”.
11. Aksonova I. (2021), “Structural and dynamic analysis of the labour market of Ukraine: challenges of modernity”, Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, vol. 25.
12. Blyzniuk V (2016), “Ukrainian labour market: historical challenges and new tasks”, Ukrainskyi sotsium, vol. 3 (58), pp. 58-71.
13. Pyshchulina O., Markevych K. (2022), “Labour market in the conditions of war: main trends and directions of stabilization”, Razumkov Centre.
14. Dumont Jean-Christophe, Lauren Ave (2022), “The potential contribution of Ukrainian refugees to the labour force in European host countries”, OECD.
15. Andersen Kasper (2022), “Ukraine Labour Market Profile 2022”, Danish Trade Union Development Agency.
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