Financial and economic security of agricultural business: specifics, analysis methodology, and measures of stabilization

? improvement of the organizational and management system for planning the production, consumption, processing, and export of agricultural products;

? maintenance of local and functional integration of agricultural and processing entities;

? improvement of the system for coordinating the functioning and development of production infrastructure elements;

? organizational framework for the development of logistics, sales, and export infrastructure;

? establishment of vertical and horizontal coordination and cooperation of agricultural and processing entities

Internal

Reduced assets, deteriorated capitallabor ratio, decreased working capital, reduced revenues, deteriorated financial and economic performance

? technological modernisation of production and processing and strengthening the competitiveness of agricultural products;

? improvement of financial, resource, and investment support of agricultural enterprises;

? improvement of the material, technical, and technological support of agricultural enterprises;

? increasing efficiency in the system: production, transportation, storage, processing, sales;

? improvement of the level of quality and added value and increasing the degree of processing of agricultural products

Security weakening trends

Deterioration in the resources, investment, money and credit, debt, economy, and insurance components of security

? development of regional financial and credit infrastructure;

? financial support for enterprises with closed-loop manufacturing and deep processing of agricultural products;

? development of public-private financial and credit support for small agricultural businesses;

? creation of production, logistics, and export-oriented clusters;

? promotion of investment attractiveness of agricultural enterprises in the region

Source: developed by the authors.

Conclusion

For a comprehensive analysis of the financial and economic security of agricultural business in the region (on the example of Lvivska oblast), the methodological approach is developed and tested. Its conceptual task is to calculate the financial and economic security's empirical indicator and the levels of its components (resources, investment, money and credit, debt, economy, and insurance). The author's methodological approach is tested based on the financial statements of agricultural enterprises (on the example of the agricultural sector) and scoring, the data series of which were formed based on the results of the expert survey by the Delphi method. The stages of building empirical indicators based on the expert survey include (1) building a matrix of indicators within the relevant component using the method of averages and (2) forming the standardized series of indicators within each component using the logarithmic method.

The article shows that the appropriate level of all components of financial and economic security correlates with the financial independence of agricultural entities. In 2018, the index of the insurance (0.798), money and credit (0.737), debt (0.724), and resources (0.720) components of the security of agricultural enterprises in Lvivska oblast was above the moderate level. In 2018-2022, the components of the financial and economic security of agricultural business significantly weakened, the resources component by 16.2 p.p., the investment component by 16.9 p.p., the money and credit component by 20.6 p.p., the debt component by 19.0 p.p., the economy component by 18.0 p.p., and the insurance component by 5.3 p.p. The article proves that the weakening of all components of the financial and economic security of the region 's agricultural business is determined by economic instability and socio-political turmoil, as well as a significant decrease in the value of agricultural assets, profitability, and working capital and deterioration of capital-labor ratio.

The average level of financial and economic security of agricultural business for the period under study was 65.0 %, and the average annual rate of decline was 4.1 p.p. The level of financial and economic security of the agricultural business in the region is characterized by a high degree of sensitivity to changes in market conditions and the socio-economic situation (reduced demand for the industry's products, rising costs of raw materials and supplies in the context of high energy and material intensity of production, low level of technological development, and loss of economic capacity as a result of russia's armed aggression against Ukraine).

The proposed methodological approach to the assessment of the financial and economic security of agricultural business in the region has certain methodological limitations, in particular, regarding (1) the development of a valid, comparative, and universal information and analytical base for the study; (2) the use of the expert method for the construction of dynamic series of indicators, which, unlike the statistical method, is characterized by a significant static error). The dynamic series of indicators built on the basis of the results of the expert survey are determined by the correctness of the methodology of the Delphi method, including the number and professionalism of the experts, the stability of the composition during the study period, etc.).

Scenario-dynamic modeling, including lag forecasting, of the level of financial and economic security of agricultural business in the face of economic and other shocks may constitute a further area of research. The prospect of this type of research will improve methodological approaches to the analysis of the economic capacity of agricultural business, including with a view to enable the identification of the causal relationship between capacity and security.

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