Quantitative assessment of the deficit in consumption of milk and meat products by the population of Ukraine as a result of food losses and waste

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Quantitative assessment of the deficit in consumption of milk and meat products by the population of Ukraine as a result of food losses and waste

Olena Kotykova

Olena Pohorielova

Mykola Babych



Abstract

food loss shortage consumption

Purpose. The purpose of our study is to assess the extent to which food losses and waste affect the level of deficit in the consumption of milk and meat products by the population of Ukraine, which will allow us to identify the regions of Ukraine for which measures and policies to reduce food losses and waste should be developed.

Methodology / approach. The empirical research was conducted using primary and secondary data. Primary data were used to calculate food losses and waste according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) methodology. Secondary data were used for correlation and regression analysis. Correlation and regression analysis were conducted for each of the six types of products: meat and milk. Factorial features are food losses and waste per capita. The result feature of the correlation and regression analysis is the share of consumption deficit resulting from food losses and waste. The sample was formed based on data from 24 regions of Ukraine.

Results. According to the results of the correlation and regression analysis, the assumption of the absence of a relationship is not confirmed; allfactors are significant. It has been proven that food losses and waste of milk and meat are a significant factor in the formation of a deficit in the consumption of milk and meat by the population of Ukraine. It was determined that milk losses and waste have a somewhat higher impact on the deficit of product consumption than meat losses and waste. It was established that the share of the deficit in milk and meat consumption, which arises as a result of food losses and waste, is higher in those areas that traditionally specialise in the production of livestock products. The feasibility of developing and implementing differentiated measures to reduce the deficit of milk and meat consumption in certain regions is substantiated.

Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, the degree of impact of food losses and waste of milk and meat production on the deficit of consumption of these products by the population of Ukraine has been scientifically proven and quantified.

Practical value / implications. The results of this empirical study are the basis for the development of state and regional programmes and the implementation of the necessary actions to achieve Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 12 (SDG 2, 12) in Ukraine.

Key words: food losses and waste, consumption, correlation and regression analysis, meat, milk, Ukraine.



Introduction

For over thirty years, the level of milk and meat consumption by the population of Ukraine has not corresponded to rational norms. Imbalanced nutrition has several negative consequences, including health problems, reduced labor productivity, and impacts on quality of life. The existence of disparities in population nutrition for such a long period indicates deep problems in the country's food security.

A comparison of milk and meat balances in Ukraine indicates a high degree of correlation between production volumes and consumption levels. While insufficient production of certain types of food can be compensated for by importing products, official data confirm a direct relationship in Ukraine between production volume and per capita consumption of milk and meat. Over the past seven years, milk and meat production in Ukraine met only 60-75% of the need for a rational consumption rate, and meat and milk exports exceeded imports by 1.5 times (excluding 2020-2021 when milk imports exceeded exports). Therefore, the insufficient consumption of milk and meat by the population of Ukraine is connected primarily with insufficient production volumes, which do not allow for the formation of a consumption fund that corresponds to rational norms of food consumption.

The simple solution to the problem seems obvious - it is necessary to increase milk and meat production volumes. However, the feasibility and practicality of such an approach in modern Ukrainian realities are debatable. We propose to focus on other possibilities - maximising the preservation and use of the already produced products. We believe that reducing food losses and waste, as a significant resource for ensuring food security, remains underestimated in Ukraine.

This work aims to provide empirical evidence of how significant food losses and waste affect the deficit in milk and meat consumption. This awareness is necessary for the formulation of food programs, the recognition of the importance of measures and policies aimed at achieving zero food loss.

Literature review

In search of ways to solve the problem of food losses and waste, researchers mainly focus on the stages of the food chain. Research is conducted at the local [1; 2], regional [3], national [4-8], and global [9-11] levels.

Sometimes researchers focus on specific stages of the food chain: production [12; 13]; handling and storage [14]; processing and packaging [15-17]; distribution and market [18; 19]; consumption [20-22]. Much more attention is paid to certain stages of the food chain compared to others. This approach is explained by the fact that scientists try to solve the most difficult questions first, and only then move on to less significant ones.

The vast majority of studies confirm that, regardless of the wide geography of the studies, the results on food losses and waste at one or another stage for certain types of products are very close in their values, but only for countries with a similar level of economic development.

According to FAO [9], estimates show that food losses and waste of meat and meat products in industrially developed regions are largest at the last stages of the food chain - Distribution and Market, Consumption. This result is explained by the high consumption of meat per capita, especially in Europe and the USA. Waste at the consumption level accounts for approximately 50 % of total food losses and waste of meat and meat products. Relatively low levels of food losses and waste of meat and meat products in the first two stages (Production, Handling and Storage) can be explained by relatively low losses due to the death of animals during breeding and transportation to slaughter. For developing countries, food losses and waste of meat and meat products are fairly evenly distributed across all stages of the food chain. Significantly higher losses at the first stage (Production) are clearly distinguished, which are explained by the high level of animal deaths due to frequent diseases (for example, pneumonia, digestive diseases, and parasites) [23].

M. Karwowska et al. [24] estimate food losses and waste in the meat sector to be 23 %. In the overall structure of food losses and waste, the biggest losses are at the stage of consumption - 64 %, followed by processing and packaging - 20 %, distribution and market - 12 %, and production, handling, and storage - 3.5 %.

Regarding milk and milk products, according to the results of FAO research [9], food losses and waste of milk products in industrialized regions are highest at the Consumption stage and make up 40-65 % of total food waste. Food losses and waste at the first stage (Production) are also significant, as diseases of dairy cows (mainly mastitis infections) lead to a decrease in milk yield by approximately 3 -4 %. For all developing regions, food losses and waste of milk and milk products are relatively high at the Handling and Storage stage, as well as at the Distribution and Market stage.

Earlier studies have established that food losses and waste are an essential component of food security in Ukraine. In particular, in 2016, the amount of food losses and waste in Ukraine was 18,366 million kcal, which is 8 % of the total production [25]. At the same time, the specific weight of the consumption deficit, which arises as a result of food losses and waste, ranges from 25 to 72 % with different types of products [26]. The total amount of economic loss and lost income from food losses and waste in Ukraine amounted to 991.9 and 2224.5 million euros, respectively [27].

Consequently, the amount of food losses and waste varies between countries due to society's income level, urbanisation, and economic growth [28]. At each stage of the food chain, the cost of food losses differs significantly. They are also significantly differentiated depending on the type of products and the region, requiring different approaches to solving this problem depending on the type of products, industry or sphere of the agro-food system, as well as the region.

Based on the above, it is necessary to assess how food losses and waste affect the deficit in the consumption of milk and meat products by the population of Ukraine. This assessment will help identify regions in Ukraine where measures and policies to reduce food losses and waste should be developed.

Solving the research question involves the following tasks:

To determine food losses and waste: 1.1. In terms of the main food groups: meat and milk; 1.2. In terms of regions of Ukraine.

To determine the level of deficit in the consumption of meat and milk products by the population of Ukraine.

To establish the degree of influence of food losses and waste on the deficit in the consumption of meat and milk products by the population of Ukraine.

To determine the regions of Ukraine and the stages of the food value chain for certain types of products where it is necessary to develop measures and policies to reduce food losses and waste.

Methodology

In the research process, statistical methods were used, such as correlation and regression analysis, comparison of average and relative values, and graphic and index methods. Program documents of state bodies of Ukraine and EU countries, methodological and statistical materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [29] and FAO [9], as well as results of scientific research and international organizations, served as the information base of the study.

Empirical research was conducted using primary and secondary data. Primary data were used to calculate food losses and waste according to the FAO methodology [9], as presented in Figure 1 and Table 1.

Table 1. Estimated waste percentages for each commodity group at each step of the Food Supiply Chain (FSC) in Euroрe, including Ukraine

Type of product	Agricultural production	Postharvest handling and storage	Processing and packaging	Distribution: supermarket retail	Consumption
Cereals	2.0	4.0	0.5-10.0	2.0	25.0
Roots and tubers	20.0	9.0	15.0	7.0	17.0
Oilseeds and pulses	10.0	1.0	5.0	1.0	4.0
Fruits and vegetables	20.0	5.0	2.0	10.0	19.0
Meat	3.1	0.7	5.0	4.0	11.0
Fish and seafood	9.4	0.5	6.0	9.0	11.0
Milk	3.5	0.5	1.2	0.5	7.0

Source: FAO [9, pp. 33-35].

In our study, the terms defined in Figure 1 will be used with the following meanings:

production: total volumes of different types of agricultural products in the country received during the reporting year;

import quantity: number of products (in the equivalent of the primary product) that arrived from other countries by type;

stock variation: change in the amount of stocks of agricultural products types and derivatives of their processing (in the equivalent of the primary product) as of the end of the reporting year compared to its beginning;

export quantity: number of products (in the equivalent of the primary product) delivered to other countries by type;

feed: total volume of products used for feeding livestock both in the form of primary products and products used for the production of animal feed;

seed: reflects the amount of products used on all cultivated areas for the reporting year;

processing: reflects the amount of used products in the process of their processing to manufacture food products;

waste: reflects the amount of products that are lost during storage and transportation from production to the stage of sale and food consumption by the population;

fresh/processed: reflects the amount of products that were available for food consumption by the population during the reporting year.



Figure 1. Method of calculating food losses and waste

Source: FAO [9, pp. 33-35].

The primary data source is the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The main source of information is the section “Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries” and the statistical yearbook “Balances and Consumption of the Main Food Products by the Population of Ukraine” on the website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [29]. The statistical yearbook contains information about the consumption of basic food products and the balance of food supplies.

The object of statistical observation (target population) is economic entities and households that produce, use, and consume the main products of plant and animal husbandry within the economic territory of the country. The unit of statistical observation is a legal entity, an individual entrepreneur, and a household.

The methodology developed by the authors for calculating the deficit in the consumption of milk and meat products by the population of Ukraine as a result of food losses and waste is presented in Figure 2.

The calorie content in 1 kg of milk and meat is provided according to the “Food balance sheets” handbook, developed by FAO for international use [30].

Secondary data were used for correlation and regression analysis. Correlation and regression analysis were conducted for two types of products:

Meat: meat and meat products (in terms of the primary product), including beef and veal, pork, poultry, and other types of meat;

Milk: milk and milk products (in terms of the primary product).

Factor signs are food losses and waste at separate stages of the food value chain:

Xi - food losses and waste by meat per person, kcal;

X2 - food losses and waste by milk per person, kcal.

The resulting indicator is the specific gravity of the consumption deficit, which arises as a result of food losses and waste - Y.

Figure 2. Methodology for calculating the deficit in the consumption of milk and meat products by the population of Ukraine as a result of food losses and waste

Source: developed by the authors.

Correlation and regression analysis of the assessment of the factor characteristics degree of influence on the result was carried out using Excel software. The reliability of each correlation and regression analysis result is confirmed by the following list of indicators:

m2, m1, b - coefficients for variables in the correlation and regression equation;

se1, se_b, se_y - averages of absolute values of deviations of data points from the average;

R² - coefficient of determination;

F - Fisher's criterion calculated to assess the adequacy of the constructed model;

Fcrit - Fisher's criterion is critical;

df - the number of degrees of freedom;

SSregr. - fraction of variance, which is described by the regression equation (sum of squares due to regression);

SSresid. - the proportion of variance that is not taken into account when writing the equation (residual sum of squares);

TDIST and t-statistics are standard errors (auxiliary values used to check the significance of model coefficients).

The sample was formed based on data from 24 regions of Ukraine. Data exclude the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, and a part of temporarily occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The study period includes 2019-2021. The calculation of actual consumption of products was carried out based on averaged data on the consumption funds of milk, meat, and the available population in the regions of Ukraine.



Results

Since 1990, the caloric content of the average daily consumption of food by the population of Ukraine per person has constantly exceeded the limit level. In 2021, the average daily nutritional value of a Ukrainian's diet was 2,677 kcal, which is 7.1 % higher than the limit level (2,500 kcal). However, in 2021, compared to 1990, the consumption of calories by the population of Ukraine decreased by 25.6 %. In general, starting from 2005, a clear tendency to decrease the level of consumed calories was established, and in 2020-2021, the level of the indicator reached the values of 1995-2000 (Figure 3). The positive point in this matter is the fact that the reduction in the volume of consumed calories, firstly, corresponds to the limit level, and secondly, it occurs at the expense of products of plant origin.

However, the consumption of animal-based products by the population of Ukraine does not meet rational standards. Since 1990, the caloric content of the average daily consumption of products of plant origin has exceeded the limit, while a deficit has been constantly observed in the caloric content of the average daily consumption of products of animal origin. In 2021, only 29.7 % of the average daily ration is provided by the consumption of products of animal origin, which is 42.2 % lower than the established threshold criterion (55.0 %).



Figure 3. Dynamics of caloric content of average daily food consumption by the population of Ukraine per person, kcal per day

Source: developed by the authors based on the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [29].

Traditionally, the main sources of calories from animal products in Ukraine are eggs, milk, and meat (Table 2). During the studied period, the sufficiency level of meat consumption by the population of Ukraine ranged from 41 to 67 %. That is, the deficit of meat consumption is 33 to 59 % of the rational norm. A similar situation has developed with regard to milk - the sufficiency of consumption ranges from 52 to 64 %, thus the deficit of milk consumption is 36 to 48 % of the rational norm.

Table 2. Sufficient consumption of animal products by the population of Ukraine

Indicator	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Meat
Actual consumption, per capita in a year; kilograms	38.9	32.8	39.1	52.0	50.9	51.7	52.8	53.6	53.8	53.0
Sufficient consumption, %	48.6	41.0	48.9	65.0	63.6	64.6	66.0	67.0	67.3	66.3
Milk
Actual consumption, per capita in year; kilograms	243.6	199.1	225.6	206.4	209.9	200.0	197.7	200.5	201.9	201.5
Sufficient consumption, %	64.1	52.4	59.4	54.3	55.2	52.6	52.0	52.8	53.1	53.0
Eggs
Actual consumption, per capita in year; pcs	171	166	238	290	280	273	275	282	278	272
Sufficient consumption, %	59.0	57.2	82.1	100.0	96.6	94.1	94.8	97.2	95.9	93.8

Note. Rational rate of meat consumption - 80 kg, milk - 380 kg, eggs - 290 pcs.

Source: developed by the authors based on the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [29].

Since the consumption of eggs mostly corresponds to the rational norms of consumption, in our study, we focused on the defined volumes of the deficit of milk and meat consumption. The deficit of meat consumption by the population of Ukraine is, on average, 71.1 thousand kcal per person per year (Table 3). In terms of regions, the highest indicator was established in Luhansk region (100.4 thousand kcal), and the lowest - in Kyiv region (43.5 thousand kcal). Therefore, the ratio between the smallest and the largest deficit value is 1:2.3.



Table 3. Deficit of meat consumption resulting from food losses and waste in Ukraine

Region	Actual meat consumption per person per year, kcal	Deficit of meat consumption per person per year, kcal	Food losses and waste of meat per 1 person, kcal	The deficit of meat, as calculated under condition of compliance with rational consumption norms and achieving zero losses, is expressed in kilocalories (kcal) of food	The specific percentage of the meat consumption deficit that can be attributed to food losses and waste
Ukraine	127744.4	71079.6	51197.2	19882.4	72.0
Vinnytsia	130726.8	68097.2	133957.7	68097.2	100.0
Volyn	125259.1	73564.9	75304.6	73564.9	100.0
Dnipropetrivsk	153840.1	44983.9	67351.6	44983.9	100.0
Donetsk	134951.8	63872.2	34048.6	29823.6	53.3
Zhytomyr	121531.2	77292.8	32806.0	44486.9	42.4
Zakarpattia	118300.3	80523.7	30569.2	49954.5	38.0
Zaporizhzhia	126750.3	72073.7	35788.3	36285.4	49.7
Ivano-Frankivsk	105873.8	92950.2	41504.5	51445.7	44.7
Kyiv	155331.3	43492.8	131720.9	43492.8	100.0
Kirovohrad	131969.4	66854.6	41753.0	25101.5	62.5
Luhansk	98417.9	100406.1	20628.0	79778.1	20.5
Lviv	121282.6	77541.4	44735.4	32806.0	57.7
Mykolaiv	115815.0	83009.0	27338.3	55670.7	32.9
Odesa	117306.2	81517.8	26095.7	55422.2	32.0
Poltava	126004.7	72819.3	48214.8	24604.5	66.2
Rivne	120040.0	78784.0	37528.0	41256.0	47.6
Sumy	117554.7	81269.3	34297.1	46972.2	42.2
Ternopil	115815.0	83009.0	43244.2	39764.8	52.1
Kharkiv	127247.4	71576.6	36533.9	35042.7	51.0
Kherson	130726.8	68097.2	36036.9	32060.4	52.9
Khmelnytsky	121531.2	77292.8	41007.5	36285.4	53.1
Cherkasy	125507.7	73316.4	161793.0	73316.4	100.0
Chernivtsi	110098.8	88725.2	37279.5	51445.7	42.0
Chernihiv	115069.4	83754.6	35788.3	47966.3	42.7

Source: calculated by the authors.



The deficit is quite high in Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Chernivtsi regions (more than 50 thousand kcal per person). In Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Luhansk, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, and Chernihiv regions, the consumption deficit exceeds a third of the rational consumption norm of meat. The ratio between the lowest (20.6 thousand kcal) and the highest (161.8 thousand kcal) indicator of food losses and waste of meat is 1:7.8. The three leaders with the highest rates of losses were recorded in the Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Kyiv regions, which specialize in the production of livestock products. The lowest level of losses was recorded in Luhansk region, which is a depressed region, and therefore, the level of consumption of “expensive” calories in such regions is low.

In five regions of Ukraine (Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrivsk, Kyiv, and Cherkasy), the food losses and waste of meat exceed the deficit of its consumption. Thus, the specific gravity of the consumption deficit, which arises as a result of food losses and waste, is 100 % (Figure 4). Under such circumstances, the deficit of meat consumption in these regions can be overcome even without additional measures - only by observing rational consumption norms and ensuring zero food losses.



Figure 4. The specific gravity of the deficit of meat consumption by the population of Ukraine as a result of food losses and waste, %

Note. Active figure available at: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v6Rf2/1.

Source: calculated and developed by the authors.

In Donetsk, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Poltava, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Khmelnytsky regions, the specific gravity of the consumption deficit, which arises as a result of food losses and waste of meat, exceeds 50 %.

Similarly, to the consumption of meat, the consumption of milk per person in Ukraine does not meet the rational norm: the deficit in the country is on average 95.6 thousand kcal per person per year (Table 4). In terms of regions, the highest indicator was established in Luhansk (135.6 thousand kcal), and the lowest - in Ivano- Frankivsk region (55.3 thousand kcal). As follows, the ratio between the smallest and the largest deficit value is 1:2.5.



Table 4. Deficit of milk consumption resulting from food losses and waste in Ukraine

Region	Actual consumption of milk per person per year, kcal	Deficit of milk consumption per person per year, kcal	Food losses and waste of milk per person, kcal	The deficit in milk consumption in compliance with rational consumption norms and zero losses, measured in kilocalories	The proportion of the deficit in milk consumption that can be attributed to food losses and waste, expressed as a percentage
Ukraine	117445.7	95582.3	24274.0	71308.3	25.4
Vinnytsia	114923.0	98105.0	42549.5	55555.5	43.4
Volyn	117726.0	95302.0	26124.0	69178.0	27.4
Dnipropetrivsk	114698.8	98329.2	15192.3	83137.0	15.5
Donetsk	94909.6	118118.4	10651.4	107467.0	9.0
Zhytomyr	122659.3	90368.7	33636.0	56732.7	37.2
Zakarpattia	128433.5	84594.5	17827.1	66767.5	21.1
Zaporizhzhia	101973.1	111054.9	16705.9	94349.0	15.0
Ivano-Frankivsk	157752.8	55275.2	24498.2	30776.9	44.3
Kyiv	124285.0	88743.0	42885.9	45857.1	48.3
Kirovohrad	113689.7	99338.3	26516.4	72821.9	26.7
Luhansk	77474.9	135553.1	10034.7	125518.3	7.4
Lviv	130451.6	82576.4	19004.3	63572.0	23.0
Mykolaiv	119183.6	93844.4	27133.0	66711.4	28.9
Odesa	105392.8	107635.2	15528.6	92106.6	14.4
Poltava	122154.7	90873.3	45408.6	45464.7	50.0
Rivne	114082.1	98945.9	25395.2	73550.7	25.7
Sumy	109204.9	103823.1	31842.1	71981.0	30.7
Ternopil	137739.4	75288.6	31730.0	43558.6	42.1
Kharkiv	134487.9	78540.1	23769.4	54770.6	30.3
Kherson	119576.0	93452.0	24834.6	68617.4	26.6
Khmelnytsky	126191.1	86836.9	33692.1	53144.9	38.8
Cherkasy	123948.7	89079.3	37896.6	51182.8	42.5
Chernivtsi	140710.6	72317.4	22760.4	49557.0	31.5
Chernihiv	127088.0	85940.0	41428.3	44511.6	48.2

Source: calculated by the authors.



In Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa regions, the deficit of milk consumption exceeds 50 % of the rational norm of consumption; in the rest (except Ivano-Frankivsk region) - it is 30 % of the rational consumption norm.

In nine regions of Ukraine (Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv), food losses and waste of milk range from 15 to 45 thousand kcal per person, and only in Donetsk and Luhansk regions is it less than 11 thousand kcal per person.

The specific gravity of the consumption deficit, which arises as a result of food losses and waste, in none of the regions exceeds 50 % (Figure 5). Therefore, the milk consumption deficit will not be overcome, provided that rational consumption norms and zero food losses are observed in all regions. The deficit is the largest in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Odesa regions - no more than 15 %, and in Donetsk and Luhansk regions - less than 10 %.

Figure 5. The proportion of milk consumption deficit in Ukraine due to food losses and waste, %

Note. Active figure available at: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/29DzE/1.

Source: calculated and developed by the authors.



Food losses and waste significantly contribute to the deficit in milk and meat consumption by the Ukrainian population. Approximately 45.3 % of the deficit in milk and meat consumption is due to food losses and waste in Ukraine (Figure 6). In regions such as Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Cherkasy, the consumption deficit caused by food losses and waste of meat and milk reaches 100 %. Moreover, in nine other regions (Volyn, Dnipropetrivsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytsky, and Chernihiv), the specific share of the consumption deficit due to food losses and waste exceeds 40 %. Except for Luhansk (15 %) and Odesa (22 %) regions, the remaining regions exhibit a specific gravity of the consumption deficit ranging from 25 to 40 %.

Figure 6. The specific gravity of the milk and meat consumption deficit caused by food losses and waste, %

Note. Active figure available at: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IblUX/1.

Source: calculated and developed by the authors.



The initial data for the correlation and regression analysis to assess the impact of food losses and waste of milk and meat on their consumption deficit are presented in Table 5.

Figure 7 and Table 6 summarize the model components and the results of the correlation and regression analysis assessing the impact of milk and meat food losses and waste in Ukraine on their consumption deficit.

Table 5. The initial data for the correlation and regression analysis of the assessment of the impact of food losses and waste of milk and meat on the level of their consumption deficit

Region	Food losses and waste per person, kcal	The percentage of the consumption deficit attributed to food losses and waste
	Meat	Milk
Vinnytsia	133957.7	42549.5	100.0
Volyn	75304.6	26124.0	60.1
Dnipropetrivsk	67351.6	15192.3	57.6
Donetsk	34048.6	10651.4	24.6
Zhytomyr	32806.0	33636.0	39.6
Zakarpattia	30569.2	17827.1	29.3
Zaporizhzhia	35788.3	16705.9	28.7
Ivano-Frankivsk	41504.5	24498.2	44.5
Kyiv	131720.9	42885.9	100.0
Kirovohrad	41753.0	26516.4	41.1
Luhansk	20628.0	10034.7	13.0
Lviv	44735.4	19004.3	39.8
Mykolaiv	27338.3	27133.0	30.8
Odesa	26095.7	15528.6	22.0
Poltava	48214.8	45408.6	57.2
Rivne	37528.0	25395.2	35.4
Sumy	34297.1	31842.1	35.7
Ternopil	43244.2	31730.0	47.4
Kharkiv	36533.9	23769.4	40.2
Kherson	36036.9	24834.6	37.7
Khmelnytsky	41007.5	33692.1	45.5
Cherkasy	161793.0	37896.6	100.0
Chernivtsi	37279.5	22760.4	37.3
Chernihiv	35788.3	41428.3	45.5

Source: calculated by the authors.

Figure 7. A correlation and regression analysis model for assessing the impact of food losses and waste of milk and meat in Ukraine on the level of deficit in their consumption

Source: calculated and developed by the authors.

According to the results of the correlation and regression analysis, the assumption of the absence of a relationship is not confirmed, and all factors are significant (Table 6). The data indicate that, ceteris paribus, an increase in food losses and waste by 1000 kcal per person results in a 0.512 % increase in the specific gravity of the deficit in meat consumption and a 0.633 % increase in the specific gravity of the deficit in milk consumption.

Table 6. The results of statistical evaluation of the correlation and regression analysis assessing the impact of food losses and waste of milk and meat in Ukraine on the level of their consumption deficit

Indicator*	Indicator value
m2, mt, b	0.000633	0.000512	2.532695
se2, set, seb	0.000104	0.000029	2.525031
R2, sey	0.969060332	4.315683982	-
F, df	328.8701592	21	-
SS regr., SS resid.	12250.49778	391.1276929	-
У = 0.000512хі + 0.000633x2 + 2.532695
F, Fcrit.	4.32	The assumption of relationship absence is not confirmed
t-statistics	6.103517193	17.84510438	1.003034987
TDIST	0.000002339	0.000000000	0.163631195
Comparison of evaluation	Effective feature	Effective feature	-

Note. *Description of indicators is given in the methodology section. Source: calculated by the authors.

Considering the significant impact of food losses and waste on milk and meat consumption levels in Ukraine, the primary tool for reducing these deficits is to implement measures to achieve zero food losses. This approach is particularly effective for regions where 70 % or more of the consumption deficit is caused by food losses and waste.

However, achieving zero food losses may not completely solve the issue in all regions, as other factors play a role in some areas. In Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Odesa regions, compliance with rational consumption norms and zero food losses and waste for milk would only reduce the consumption deficit by 15 %. Therefore, additional measures are necessary to overcome the milk consumption deficit in these regions. It is advisable to implement economic mechanisms and tools to support producers of dairy and meat products. This includes creating price guarantees, addressing environmental issues at various stages of the production cycle, providing state protectionism for enterprises with zero food losses, financing innovative technologies to reduce food losses, and rewarding their use. Additionally, increasing investments in waste management infrastructure, subsidies for agriculture conducted in an environmentally friendly manner, exemptions from export duties for products that replace material-intensive and energy-intensive production, state procurement to encourage more efficient waste management, and using fiscal measures (preferential loans and taxes) to stimulate product reuse, among others.

Considering the relative weight of food losses and waste at different stages of the food chain, it is particularly important for these regions to focus on developing infrastructure for logistics and product storage, processing, and packaging. Milk and meat are perishable products that require special conditions for storage and delivery to ensure quality and prevent spoilage. Therefore, it is important to focus on improving the logistics of purchasing products, including by stimulating the development of service cooperatives, using equipment and technologies that protect products from the penetration and multiplication of non-specific microflora, improving roads, reengineering technological processes of processing and packaging, improving supply chain management systems, using packaging that ensures longer storage of food without loss of quality, considering optimal packaging volumes, and implementing recycling or repackaging of products that have not lost their nutritional properties and quality [31].

In addition, territories affected by hostilities or temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation should be highlighted separately. Ensuring the consumption of milk and meat by the population living in such territories is impossible without the implementation of special social and humanitarian food programs. Such programs may include subsidised canteens, the establishment of food banks through agreements with supermarkets and other food stores, feeding programs for children in socially vulnerable families, distribution of emergency food kits, school feeding programs, emergency food reserves, provision of food for pregnant women, the elderly, and others.

A summary of directions for reducing the deficit of milk and meat consumption in certain regions of Ukraine is presented in Figure 8.

We propose general directions for reducing the deficit in milk and meat consumption at the regional and national levels. Additionally, it is advisable to develop and implement relevant educational programs and initiatives to promote healthy eating, explaining to the population the benefits of adhering to rational dietary norms. Insufficient consumption at the household level can be due to various factors, ranging from physical or economic limitations in accessing products to individual taste preferences or dietary traditions. Therefore, education and promotion of healthy eating habits have a significant impact on forming a healthy diet at the household level.

Discussion

Food security is defined by four main criteria: availability, access, utilization, and stability [32]. Recent studies suggest adding two more criteria: agency and sustainability [33; 34]. In our opinion, all these criteria, except for agency, are closely related to food losses and waste and the food deficit that may arise due to such losses.

“Physical availability of food: food availability addresses the “supply side” of food security and is determined by the level of food production, stock levels and net trade” [35]. Food losses and waste do not directly impact production volumes, but they reduce the results of production activities and directly affect the reduction of reserves and trade restrictions, which, depending on production volumes and losses, can lead to a deficit in production.

Figure 8. The main directions of reducing the deficit of milk and meat consumption by the population of Ukraine in certain regions

Source: developed by the authors.

Economic and physical access to food is based on incomes, expenditures, markets, and prices. Food losses and waste lead to income losses for food producers and additional “wasteful” expenses they incur to produce lost products. The reduction in production volume, as a result of food losses and waste, also leads to an increase in the price of products or a significant increase if food losses lead to a deficit of a particular product in a specific market.

Food utilization. The diversity of the diet and distribution of food directly depend on the deficit of production. Of course, food losses and waste do not necessarily lead to a deficit of production. However, concerning the consumption of food whose production volumes do not meet the necessary norms of rational consumption, such as meat and milk in Ukraine, such a statement is relevant.

Stability of the other three dimensions over time. Violation of at least one of the mentioned criteria or potential threat of any risk regarding the possibility of ensuring food security, such as the most severe manifestation - war, can negatively affect the state of food security of a particular individual or the nation as a whole.

Two new criteria, in our opinion, are the least (agency) and the most (sustainability) related to food losses and waste.

“Agency refers to the capacity of individuals and groups to exercise voice and make decisions about their food systems” [33]. Thus, neither a deficit in production nor food losses and waste obviously influence the consumer's opinion regarding their desire or reluctance to consume a particular product. In this case, other factors are involved in influencing consumer behavior.

“Sustainability refers to the long-term viability of the ecological and social bases of food systems” [33]. The sustainability of food systems is directly related to the ability to quickly adapt to new challenges, anticipate possible losses, and effectively prevent them. The sustainability of the system is based on the fact that any deficit is not acceptable - a sustainable system should work in such a way that a deficit does not arise.

We proceed from the fact that the production volumes of meat and milk do not meet the rational norms of consumption by the population of Ukraine. In the conditions of war, increasing production volumes seems unlikely, and ensuring an adequate level of food consumption through export of products is much more difficult (financial constraints, complex logistics and storage due to shelling) or even impossible (in temporarily occupied territories). Therefore, we focus on where additional benefits can be obtained, based on what we already have, without putting pressure on the ecosystem and without significant financial investments. The study aimed to demonstrate the level of influence of food losses and waste on the formation of the deficit in milk and meat consumption, as a major component of the diet. The results obtained are intended to convince decision-makers and developers of food programs to consider the significant impact of food losses and waste on the formation of consumption balances. The main directions proposed for reducing the deficit in consumption of milk and meat by the population of Ukraine in certain regions provide general directions and are presented only as possible instruments for overcoming the consumption deficit in terms of minimising food losses and waste. The next stage in reducing the deficit in the consumption of milk and meat by the population of Ukraine should be the development of appropriate programs with the step-by-step implementation of specific measures that correspond to the specification of the formation of a deficit in the consumption of products in each individual region.



Conclusions

The research has demonstrated that food losses and waste of milk and meat are significant factors contributing to the deficit in the consumption of these products by the population of Ukraine. In 12 regions, the deficit in milk and meat consumption is 40 % or more due to food losses and waste. Only in one region (Luhansk region), the deficit in milk and meat consumption resulting from food losses and waste is less than 20 %.

It was determined that milk losses and waste had a slightly higher impact on the deficit in product consumption compared to meat losses and waste. The data indicates that, ceteris paribus, an increase in food losses and waste by 1000 kcal per person leads to an increase in the specific gravity of the deficit in the consumption of both meat and milk by 0.512 % and 0.633 %, respectively.

The study also found that regions traditionally specialising in the production of livestock products have a higher share of the deficit in milk and meat consumption due to food losses and waste. This is attributed to the fact that higher production volumes result in higher losses. Additionally, these regions concentrate infrastructure for storage and primary processing of milk and meat, leading to additional losses at stages 2 (Handling and Storage) and 3 (Processing and Packaging) of the food chain.

The feasibility of developing and implementing differentiated measures to reduce the deficit in milk and meat consumption in specific regions is substantiated. In three regions (Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Cherkasy), food losses and waste of meat and milk exceed the deficit in their consumption. In such circumstances, overcoming the shortage of milk and meat consumption in these regions can be achieved by observing rational consumption norms and ensuring zero food losses. For territories affected by hostilities or temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation, ensuring the population's consumption of an adequate amount of milk and meat requires the implementation of special social and humanitarian food programs and the introduction of economic tools to support consumers. For the remaining regions, it is proposed to introduce economic development incentives for both food production and the development of infrastructure to ensure stages 2 (Handling and Storage) and 3 (Processing and Packaging) of the food chain.

Limitations and future research

This study has limitations that may be associated with the methods used. In this regard, the estimated/assumed waste percentages for each commodity group in each step of the Food Supply Chain (FSC) for Europe are potentially biased. According to the FAO methodology, the region “Europe” includes 42 countries, including Ukraine, some other countries of the former Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation (Annex 1. Grouping of world regions) [9]. Given such a wide range of countries for which the same coefficients are proposed, it can be expected that some coefficients may be insufficiently relevant and require adjustment.

Firstly, it is quite obvious that EU countries have a higher level of automation in production processes and lower equipment wear compared to the majority of postSoviet countries, which obviously results in lower food loss rates at the production and harvesting stages. The presence of necessary infrastructure for food storage, modern technologies for food processing, and established logistics for food delivery in EU countries also ensures lower food loss rates at the respective stages in the food chain. However, in post-Soviet countries, including Ukraine, there is a well-established culture of food saving and reuse, historically developed. Therefore, at the level of sale and consumption of food by households, the coefficients of food loss and waste in post-Soviet countries in general, and in Ukraine in particular, may be lower than the coefficients proposed for the entire group of European countries.

It is advisable to conduct further research to refine the estimated/assumed waste percentages for each commodity group in each step of the FSC for Ukraine.



References

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