The War in Ukraine: Between the Past and the Future. Historical and Existential Aspect

- to conduct a comparative analysis of the post-Soviet development of Russia and Ukraine from the point of view of the presence of a "project of the future" for the country;

The first challenge is the absolute unpreparedness of the so-called "civilized world" to immediately repel the aggressor, confusion, attempts to "solve" the problem by surrendering Ukraine - a surprising analogy with the Munich Betrayal of 1938 and attempts to appease Nazi Germany. NATO as a defense alliance proved to be incapable of a quick response to external challenges, and a split took place in its environment into three groups of countries - conditional "hawks", "doves" and "ostriches" (preferred to pretend that nothing special was happening)Freedman, L. (2022), NATO has no choice but to support Ukraine. Our future security depends upon it, The Sunday Times (June 25), available at: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nato-has-no-choice-but-to-support- kyiv-our-future-security-depends-upon-it-sndxq5j32 (accessed 10 February 2023).. One of the reasons for this the well-known Slovenian culturologist and social philosopher Slavoj Zizek sees in the political short -sightedness of Western leaders, who tend to compromise ideals in order to ensure the profits of corporations (as of April 2022): "Market values have also determined the contours of Russia's war in Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, appears to have had a crash course in how global capitalism and democracy really work. Since the start of the war, Europe has sent Russia almost $40 billion in payments for oil and gas, prompting his observation that Western countries are more concerned about rising energy prices than Ukrainian lives"Zizek, S. (2022), War in a World that Stands for Nothing, Project Syndicate (April 18, 2022), available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-ukraine-war-highlights-truths-about-global-capitalism-by- slavoj-zizek-2022-04?barrier=accesspay (accessed 10 February 2023).. Researchers from KEKST CNC note: "In striking contrast to some Western policy-makers, whose concerns about further military escalation appear to hamstring more determined support, Ukrainians have not been intimidated by Russian threats. As devastating as the use of a tactical nuclear weapon against a city or on the battlefield would be, an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians say they would still refuse to surrender if it occurred"Munich Security Index. Appendix to the Munich Security Report 2023 With Additional Survey Results and Analysis. February 2023. Powered by KEKST CNC, p.21, availabable at: https://securityconference.org/ assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/2023/Munich_Security_Index_2023 .pdf (accessed 10 February 2023)..

The second challenge is the need to realize and reject two very dangerous illusions. The first of them is about that after the Cold War end the humanity finally realized the need for coexistence and commonwealth, and it will always be like thisFukuyama, F. (1989), The End of History?, The National Interest, 1989, No. 16, pp. 3-18.. Unfortunately, Ukraine also had this illusion, voluntarily getting rid of nuclear weapons and not arming itself, spreading lies about "Slavic brotherhood". At the cost of terrible sacrifices, Ukrainian society finally got rid of this illusion, and the so-called "collective West" is in process.

The second illusion concerns the so-called "great Russian culture", which should automatically ensure the special humanism of the Russian people. Even now, there are still people (including, unfortunately, Pope Francis) who believe that the "great Russian people" are in no way involved in war crimes in Ukraine: "What strikes me - that's why I use the word `tormented' for Ukraine - is the cruelty, which is not of the Russian people, perhaps... because the Russian people are a great people. It is of the mercenaries, of the soldiers who go off to war as an adventure, mercenaries... I prefer to think of it this way because I have high esteem for the Russian people, for Russian humanism. Just think of Dostoevsky, who to this day inspires us, inspires Christians to think of Christianity"Vatican News (2022), Pope Francis: 'Three world wars in one century: be pacifists! (06 November 2022, 18:00), available at:https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2022-11/pope-flight-three-wars-century-pacifist-interview-

bahrain.html (accessed 14 February 2023).. This illusion was irrevocably destroyed by carpet bombing of civilian objects in the cities of Ukraine, atrocities in Bucha, Irpen and Mariupol, mass murders of civilians. It is characteristic that precisely on April 3, 2002, after the discovery of numerous victims in Bucha, the website of one of the largest Russian state news agencies, RIA Novosti, published a programmatic article by a political technologist close to the Kremlin, who also positions himself as a philosopher, Timofey Sergeitsev, What Russia Should Do with Ukraine¹⁰, aptly characterized by the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center as a "justification of genocide" and evidence of "Russia's desire to destroy Ukrainians as a nation"Сергейцев, Т. (2022), Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной?, РИА Новости (03/042022), available at: https://archive.is/78PuH#selection-3295.0-3295.36 (accessed 10 February 2023). Ukraine Crisis Media Center (2022), Justification of genocide: Russia has openly declared its desire to exterminate Ukrainians as a nation, available at: https://uacrisis.org/en/justification-of-genocide-russia-has-openly- declared-its-desire-to-exterminate-ukrainians-as-a-nation (accessed 10 February 2023)..

The authors of the study drew attention to a specific historical aspect, in particular to the danger of excessive fascination with the past - an innocent whim for an individual becomes dangerous if it spreads to society as a whole.

However, the fear of death, especially among the elderly, can be used by politicians who promise to bring back the "good old days". Of course, this does not help turn back time, but it creates the illusion of stopping it. You can't get younger, but you can stop aging and postpone the inevitable death (even illusory) - isn't this idea attractive to many? If social relations (at least outwardly) are the same as in your youth, if the songs you listened to in school are constantly playing on the radio, and the movies you grew up with are constantly playing on the television, can't you imagine that time has stopped? And if the head of state hasn't changed since you graduated from school, what's wrong with that? This also helps to create the illusion of not aging, and also eliminates the need to constantly adapt to the developing and changing world around us.

No country is immune to the use of such illusions by populist politicians, which is clearly demonstrated by the history of the presidency of Donald Trump, who came to power using the slogan "Make America Great Again", relying mainly on provincial America - less educated and wealthy, more conservative, on people that do not have time to adapt to constant development and do not want to develop together with the surrounding world.

This was manifested even in such a frivolous genre as pop music: if in Russia in the 1990s they had time to release several episodes of the musical movie "Old Songs about the Main", where the singers of that time sang old Soviet songs (it was traditionally broadcast on television on New Year's Eve), the "Territory A" project was active in Ukraine at that time, which gave a path to life for dozens of new singers who performed completely modern songs. In the end, this made the Russian variety show not competitive at all, not only by world standards, but even in comparison with the Ukrainian one (that is why former Ukrainian pop stars, who are no longer interesting to anyone at home, enjoyed and continue to enjoy considerable popularity in Russia for a long time).

In recent decades in Russian literature in the fantasy genre, a separate subgenre of novels about socalled "time travelers" (in Russian - "popadantsy") has developed and flourished. Such "time travelers" from modern times fall into the past and there try to improve and correct Russian history - from the times of Ivan the TerribleЗлотников, Р. (2010), Царь Федор. Еще один шанс, Альфа-Книга, Москва., the Russian EmpireНазимов, К. (2021), Охранитель. Мятеж в империи. Альфа-книга, Москва. to the times of the Soviet Union²⁴, etc. From the innocent assumption "what would have happened if the historical development had gone differently? " this subgenre developed into a maniacal desire to remake history in such a way that Russia would become the most powerful, most advanced state that everyone would respect and fear.

Unfortunately, fascination with the past in Russia is not limited to pop culture. Russian President Putin seriously admires and tries to justify modern political decisions with the teachings of the Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin (1883 - 1954) - one of the ideologues of Russian messianism and fascism, a critic of communism and the collective WestКоролюк, М. (2014). Спасти СССР. Инфильтрация, Альфа-книга, Москва. Yarmolenko, O., Pyvovarov, S. (2022), Putin often quotes the philosopher Ivan Ilyin and General Anton Denikin. They lived a century ago, both denied Ukraine's independence and advocated dictatorial rule. And this is how they described, Babel (6 April 2022), available at: https://babel.ua/en/texts/77596-putin-often-quotes-the- philosopher-ivan-ilyin-and-general-anton-denikin-they-lived-a-century-ago-both-denied-ukraine-s- independence-and-advocated-dictatorial-rule-and-this-is-how-they-described (accessed 18 February 2023).. Russian philosophers, analyzing the period of the beginning of the so-called of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, substantiate Russia's modern policy with the ideas of K.M. Leontiev (1831 - 1891) and M. Ya. Danilevskiy (1822 - 1885)Пущаев, Конфликт на Украине..., cc. 96-97..

Such fascination leads to the formation of a "time funnel", which, constantly expanding, drags not only the country into the past, but also neighbouring ones. This is clearly visible on the example of Russia, which is gradually going through the stages of its history in reverse - first it was the Brezhnev's Soviet Union with the cult of the Great Patriotic War and the "Immortal Regiment" actions, then it turned into "we can repeat" - an allusion to the Great Patriotic War, however, on foreign territory and under absurd slogans, the country is increasingly isolated from the civilized world and returns to the period of Stalinist terror in the 1930s - 1940s, and this process of reverse development continues. This "temporal funnel" drags neighbouring countries into itself: Ukraine found itself in the format of the Second World War, European countries - in the times of the Cold War, etc.

The reason for such backward development is in the essence of Russian "national project of the future", which contradicts the trends of historical development - the idea of a large territorially and powerful (first of all in terms of military) state, which is respected and feared by other countries, dominates the post-Soviet space and can impose its will on weaker neighbours.

Any aggression against neighbours, if it ends in the seizure of foreign territories, or the brutal suppression of national liberation movements inside Russia (like during the second Russian-Chechen war), raises the rating of the Russian leadership to sky-high heights. The occupation of part of Georgia (Samachablo, or the so-called South Ossetia) in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the largescale aggression against Ukraine in 2022 - all these actions led to a significant increase in the rating of the President and the leadership of the country as a wholeFree Дом (2022), Как менялся рейтинг Путина в течение 22 лет правления - данные независимых социологов России, (08 ноября 2022 г), available at: https://uatv.ua/kak-menyalsya-rejting-putina-v-techenie-22-let- pravleniya-dannye-nezavisimyh-sotsiologov-rossii/ (accessed 14 February 2023).. However, all empires (including Russia in its current form) disintegrate over time; so normal historical development for them is as dangerous as the onset of spring for a snowman.

Ukraine was able to create the "project of the future", which has gradually gained more and more popularity since the beginning of the 2000s - European (and later - Euro-Atlantic) integration. In 2005, the new Ukrainian leadership, which came to power as a result of the so-called Orange Revolution, an indisputable priority set the course for the accelerated accession of Ukraine to the processes of European integrationУкраїнська правда (2005), Рибачук створить собі комітет і повісить всім установам прапор ЄС, available at: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2005/02/10/3006956/ (accessed 14 February 2023).. In 2013, President Yanukovych's attempt to change the vector of foreign policy orientation to a Eurasian (or more correctly to say - pro-Russian) caused mass protests - the so-called Euromaidan, which, after the brutal crackdown on November 30, 2013, grew into the Revolution of Dignity, led to a change in Ukraine's leadership and a return to European integration. The Russian aggression of 2014, which actually marked the beginning of a low-intensity RussianUkrainian war, led to the growth of not only European integration, but also Euro -Atlantic sympathies of Ukrainians - support for the idea of Ukraine joining NATO increased significantly. The transition of the Russian-Ukrainian war from 02/24/2022 to the active phase led to the achievement of a national consensus on these issues: the vast majority of Ukrainians see their country as a future member of both the EU and NATO. According to the results of the Twentieth National Survey in war conditions (January 14 - 16, 2023) 87% of respondents would support Ukraine's accession to the European Union in the event of a referendum (3% against, 8% would not vote). Support for joining NATO is the highest in the entire history of observations: 86% would support this initiative in a referendum, 3% would oppose it, and 8% would not vote. Support for joining the EU and NATO is almost unanimous among representatives of all macro-regions, age and wealth groupsSociological Group "Rating" (2023), Twentieth National Poll. Foreign Policy Moods (January 14 - 16, 2023),

This position is not the result of lack of awareness or inflated expectations. During the year of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, Ukrainians managed to see both the EU and NATO from an unattractive side: this is the excessive caution of political leaders, and the lack of desire of the population of some countries to defend even their homeland in the event of aggressionInfopost (2022), Від Польщі до Словаччини: чи готові сусіди України оборонятись від військової агресії (28 червня, 19:54), available at: https://infopost.media/vid-polshhi-do-slovachchyny-chy-gotovi-susidy- ukrayiny-oboronyatys-vid-vijskovoyi-agresiyi/ (accessed 18 February 2023). (and not to fulfill the duty of an ally in relation to other NATO countries), and the principle of consensus in decision-making, which allows pro-Russian regimes (such as the Orban's one in Hungary) to sabotage the introduction of sanctions against the aggressor.

Understanding the causes of the Russian-Ukrainian war is inextricably linked to the historical categories of the past and the future. The past is tied to the material, to be specific, to nostalgia for those times when the material situation was better, which gives rise to a subconscious desire to return to those times. The future - when it is planned according to an optimistic scenario - is always based on high ideals and a far-reaching goal. That is why the most fantastic ideas succeed. Idealism is calculated for the long term and is often disadvantageous from the point of view of immediate gain.

In this way, the main component of the project of the future - the ideological one - disappeared. The Islamic Revolution in Iran of 1978 - 1979, which swept away the relatively secular and proWestern but corrupt and inefficient regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was the first in a series of events that brought to power in many Islamic countries political forces based on a return to ideas of the past, since Western civilization could not offer them any idea as a basis for the project of the future.

The ideas of postmodernism gave a sense of stability, but they did not inspire, they did not have something worth dying for, because everything was transferred to the rank of material stability. At the same time, the topic of a prescribed project of the future was not raised at all, which would obviously require putting forward certain intangible ideas and slogans. According to the apt words of Slavoj Zizek, the postmodern world is "a World that Stands for Nothing"Zizek, War in a World.... The conventional West lived in the postmodern conditions actually before the war in Ukraine, which drew the line and ended this period.

The historical analysis of the war events in Ukraine allows us to analyze why this "temporal rollback" of society into the past is happening - from postmodernism after World War II to modernism of the 1920s - 1940s. Modernism provided a certain ideological basis, even if it turned into terrible tragedies and genocide, while postmodernism deliberately avoided any ideology. From this point of view, the civilized Western world "falls" from postmodernism to modernism in order to regain a solid ideological basis as the ability to form a new project of the future based on some system of ideas and values.

So, we can distinguish three possible varieties of the national "project of the future":