E.U. - Turkey relations from the security perspective: risks and opportunities

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E.U. - Turkey relations from the security perspective: risks and opportunities

For decades after the onset of the Cold War Turkey was the anchor of the NATO's southern flank and played a leading role in the EU security system. Many analysts point out that today Ankara's role in the security realm of the EU has considerably weakened. Certainly it is different from the perspective of Cold-war realities, but it has transformed into a new quality. As put by Richard Holbrooke in 1995: “Turkey stands at the crossroads of almost every issue of importance on the European continent-including NATO, the Balkans, Cyprus, the Aegean, Iraq sanctions, Russian relations in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and transit routes for Caspian oil and gas” [7]. According to Meltem M. Ba?, there are three assets that make Turkey an indispensable actor in the European security system in the post-Cold War era: its membership in NATO, its military capabilities, and its geostrategic position [1].

Indeed, owing to its vote in the North Atlantic Council, Turkey has an institutional lever that can influence the EU's defense aspirations. But, more determinative are Turkey's military capabilities that can be vital for operations in the expanded European security area. In this respect, it is worth mentioning the example of the role Turkey played in the 1990-91 Gulf War that was crucial for the victory, because of the high value of the Incirlik air base for conducting the air campaign. Turkey controls a pivotal intersection between Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus, which allows it to qualify as a major player all these region Turkey's military assets, especially bases would be crucial for the success of any possible EU operation in the abovementioned regions.

For the time being, Russia's anaconda energy strategy especially worries the EU members. The majority agree that diversification of energy supplies is the reasonable answer to Russia's moves. In this respect we should not overlook the fact that Turkey is located at the intersection of main diversification paths making it an energy hub. Turkey is already an energy corridor for Europe, as some of the oil from the Middle East is transported through its territory. Being situated between the leading suppliers of oil and natural gas and Europe, Ankara actively promotes its geoenergy interests. Ankara has achieved the signing and implementation of large energy transportation projects through its territory. Thus, the strategic location gives Turkey the opportunity to become an energy “bridge” between energy producers in the east and energy market in the west.

One should notice that its role would increase extraordinarily when the energy resources of the Caspian area fully reach the world markets. The basis of the Turkish strategy is the supply of natural gas from the Caspian basin [2]. The pearl of the Caspian basin is definitely “Shahdeniz” gas field whose reserves are 1.2 trillion cubic meters making it one of the few giant gas fields in the world and giving it strategic importance.

The emergence of the Caspian basin as a significant source of oil and natural gas highlights the fact that Turkey is already geographically and culturally close to 65% of all world oil and natural gas reserves. The transit role of Turkey makes it an indispensable element in the diversification of energy supplies for the EU. With the completion of the construction of the Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP), Turkey is taking an important step to achieve this goal.

In this regard, the Southern Gas Corridor project envisages the creation of a pipeline infrastructure for the transportation of Azerbaijani gas produced as part of the development of the Shah Deniz-2 field through Turkey to Europe. The main components of the project are the expansion of the South Caucasus pipeline Baku-Georgia-border with Turkey, the construction of the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) from the eastern to western borders of Turkey and the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline (TAP), connecting Greece, Albania and the Adriatic Sea in the south of Italy [5].

Moreover, there is the possibility for re-exporting gas to be carried out by Ankara. Turkey's right to re-export gas from Azerbaijan to other European countries allows Ankara to strengthen its position in relations with the European Union.

Migration is a significant card in Turkey's hand and could threaten a 2016 agreement with the EU which is rather fruitful. Approximately 59 thousand illegal migrants moving towards EU were caught in 8.5 months this year in Turkey being the largest number of illegal migrants of all time. All in all, due to Turkey building a massive wall on the border illegal migration to EU decreased by 91 percent [4]. It is clear that in such circumstances the EU migration pacts could be used as leverage by Turkey.

As exemplified by its buffer-zone role, Ankara could also act as the frontline against transnational crimes that constitute “soft threats” through beneficial cooperation. Brusse ls could utilize Turkey's advanced military and intelligence capability in its struggle against terrorism.

Strong counterterrorism cooperation needs to be the mutual priority for the EU and Turkey. One simple justification for such a stipulation is that both are equally under threat from returning ISIL fighters. If left unchecked and separated, they will be able to take up terrorist activities anywhere in Europe and Turkey.

The bone of contention between EU and Turkey is Europe's double standards policy as evidenced by the recent arms sales suspension by the European countries to Turkey in condemnation of its military incursion into Syria. Such a determination to ban arms sales to Turkey is in stark contrast to its reluctance to sanction Saudi Arabia, whose coalition has waged a years-long campaign against Houthi rebels. Even though the recent United Nations report postulated that countries that sell arms to Riyadh may be complicit in war crimes in Yemen. According to the pro-government Daily Sabah newspaper the European actions "have no impact or are very limited on the defense capabilities and inventories of the Turkish military"[3].

Ankara's plans for self-sufficiency in defense are to increase its defense potential, as well as the export capabilities of the military-industrial complex. By 2023 Ankara plans to enter six of the world's largest suppliers of defense products. It plans to increase the rating of world arms exporters and set out to increase its defense exports by 25 billion dollars, according to the Justice and Development Party Vision Document [6].

Most systems used in the Peace Spring operation including helicopters, smart ammunition, rockets, infantry rifles, armored vehicles and electronic warfare systems are supplied by the local industry of Turkey. However, Ankara continues to depend on the supply of a wide range of components, high-tech systems and assemblies from abroad, especially from NATO member countries.

The arms embargo of European Union states may frustrate the development of promi sing weapons for the republic. For example, a fifth-generation Turkish fighter TF-X is created based on technology from the Swedish company Saab and the British corporation BAE Systems.

In the foreseeable future, the Turkish defense industry will experience a shortage of ammunition as it cannot yet carry out the entire cycle of operations and, hence, has a need for importing technology. In fact, arms sales suspension is not only incapable to deter Ankara but may also makes Turkey look even more eastwards. Even though the majority of defense analysts cites Ukraine, Belarus, Pakistan, South Korea, China and Russia as alternative sources for ammunition and component parts, but by far the main concern should be caused by the Russia being the predominant supplier.

It seems that Russia is willing to fill the void left by a lack of high-tech Western systems. The plans to develop direct deliveries of Russian aircraft or even the joint production with Russia expressed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan during its visit to the MAKS 2019 air show are indicativein this regard. Definitely, Russia will not relinquish the opportunity to supersede the EU in thi context. Such an opportunity is rather conducive for Russia's hybrid warfare against the West.

Having studied risks and opportunities, we come to the conclusion that Turkey's inclusion into the EU line is more beneficial for the Union's foreign and security policies because of Turkey's capabilities, its connections in the regions around and the Russia factor. And on the contrary, its exclusion seems to be risky because of considerable security role in military, energy and migration realms. The significant role Turkey plays geopolitically by its location at the crossroads of South East Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus-Caspian region, is meant to play a pivotal role in European security and foreign policy issues, notwithstanding whether it becomes a member state or not. If treated properly, Turkey could be a real security opportunity for the EU.

List of references

turkey foreign policy eu security

1. Ba? M. M. Turkey's Role in the EU's Security and Foreign Policies / Meltem Muftuler Ba?. // Security Dialogue. - 2000. - №31.

2. Bilgin M. Avrasya Enerji Sava§lan / Bilgin. - Istanbul, 2005. - (IQ Kultur Sanat Yayincilik).

3. Turkey's defense power capitalizes on homegrown products, not to be affected by arms embargo [Електронний ресурс] // DAILY SABAH. - 2019. - Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2019/10/13/turkeys-defense-power-capitalizes-on-homegrown-products-not-to-be-affected-by-arms-embargo.

4. Korkmaz A. Avrupa'ya duzensiz g6?leri Turkiye onluyor [Електронний ресурс] / Ali

Korkmaz // Anadolu Ajansi. - 2019. - Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/avrupaya-duzensiz-gocleri-turkiye-onluyor/1586088.

5. Nuray E. TANAP PROJESОNОN TЬRKОYE ve AZERBAYCAN ENERJI POLОTОKALARINDAKО YERО ve ONEMI [Електронний ресурс] / ERDOGAN Nuray //Dergi Park. -2017.- Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/ article-file/322410.

6. Tastekin F. How lucrative is Turkey's defense industry? [Електронний ресурс] / Fehim Tastekin // AL-MONITOR. - 2017. - Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://www.al- monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/05/turkey-how-lucrative-defense-industry.html.

7. Tocci N. Turkey's European Future: Behind the Scenes of America's Influence on EU- Turkey Relations / Nathalie Tocci., 2011. - 45 с. - (NYU Press).

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