Analysis of factors influencing the dynamics of labor emigration: case-study of Ukraine

Introduction. Nowadays, labor migration takes the largest share of the migrants' flow in the world and Ukraine. According to the UN report [1], in 2019, 272 million people already migrated, while in 1990 this figure was 56.25 % less - 153 million people. There is an acute problem regarding the emigration of the able-bodied population, mainly specialists and scientists in Ukraine. The loss of human capital as one of the main factors of the economy causes disturbances in the country's welfare. For example, the result of emigration from Ukraine is the ageing of the nation and the “brain drain”. Ukrainian scholars have considered the nature of the emigration, but the problem has not been solved yet and needs a new vision. Thus, there is a need to review the nature of emigration in 2020 and identify the main factors that stimulate emigration labour flows. In the context of the study, mainly internal factors will be considered since in the future, these factors will be transferred to the Ukrainian reality.

Problem statement. The study of the migration phenomenon and its effects on various aspects of the national economies functioning is a global problem. Thus, it is studied by such world institutions as the UN, the European Commission, the International Organization for Migration and others. The definition of migration, its types and reasons have become the objects of numerous scientific studies, among which the following scientists can be distinguished: Ravenstein E. [2], Soloninko K. S. [3], Kurunova Yu. O. [6] and others. The works of Takhtarov K. A., Dorigo J. and Tobler V. [15] deal with the analysis of the main factors causing labour migration [14]. Malinovska O. A. [8, 11] and Pirozhkova S. [11] should be noted among the Ukrainian scientists who studied this phenomenon and made a significant contribution to the development of this scientific field. Scientists who were among the first to participate in the international project of the Population Department of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe “External migration in Ukraine: reasons, consequences, strategies”, which also identified the factors of external emigration in Ukraine.

Despite significant research in this topic, the issue of thorough systematization of specific factors influencing emigration in terms of different spheres of Ukrainians' life, remains quite relevant and requires more detailed study.

The purpose - to carry out a structural analysis regarding the nature and factors of labor emigration based on previous studies of domestic and foreign scholars, and to compare these factors with the labor emigration dynamics in Ukraine.

Results of the research. First of all, the study of labor emigration begins with definitions of the basic concepts that form this phenomenon. The first definition of “migration”, actively used by scientists, was proposed by Professor E. Ravenstein - “permanent or temporary change of residence” [2]. Recently, the issue of migration has become acute for countries around the world, which in most cases is related to the economic and social aspect of this phenomenon, namely: labor migration.

Labor migration is not a new phenomenon and has a certain history. There are many concepts of “labor migration”. One of the clearest and meaningful definitions of this phenomenon in our opinion is presented in the textbook of Soloninko K., where the author determined that “labor migration” is a movement caused by certain economic, social, political or other reasons, namely the working population from some countries (regions) to others during more than one year” [3]. This idea is complemented by N. N. Liventsev, who emphasizes that “international labor migration is the movement of employees across borders in search of work” [4].

Based on the migration phenomenon, a separate term is distinguished for its subject, i. e. the person directly involved in the migration - “migrant worker”. According to the definition of the ILO Convention 97 (1949), “a migrant worker is a person who migrates for employment at the expense of another person” [5]. While the UN expands this concept and the calculations take into account not only migrants employed abroad in this period but also those who have experience of migration. [1].

Kurunova Yu. O. identified this phenomenon as “the most common type of economic migration” since a significant proportion of migrants 74 % in the world, are people of working age (20-64 years), i.e. migrant workers (according to the 2020 report of the International Organization for Migration) [6].

The main reason for the study of labor migration among economists is the significant economic impact of this phenomenon starting from one country's welfare to the world economy as a whole since modern labor migration is one of the subsystems of international economic relations in the country [6].

Migration provides feedback, distinguishing two basic concepts: immigration (entry into the country of destination) and emigration (leaving the country of origin). In scientific literature, emigration is understood as “relocation (voluntary or forced) to another country for permanent or temporary residence, which has economic, religious, political reasons” [7].

Based on the above terms, it should be emphasized that labor migration has certain reasons and preconditions. Migrant workers have a certain motivation related to employment, which is a factor to change the status of a citizen to the migrant.

Before starting the analysis regarding the reasons of migration, we turn to the monograph of Shymansjka K. V., where the concept of “factor” was used as the most meaningful definition of the basis to form migration reasons (motives). This is explained by the fact that it is a set of factors that are different in features, origin, intensity of action, but have a heterogeneous impact on the formation of migration processes among the country's citizens” [7].

The main factors that cause the international migration of labor force, in the scientific literature are usually grouped into the following main categories: economic, political, natural and social (psychological). These factors and reasons of labor migration are grouped in Table 1.

Economic factors of labor migration are usually caused by the search for new more lucrative jobs abroad since the employment relationship between the employer and the employee is primarily related to monetary and financial relations (wages, bonuses, etc.). In most cases, this factor plays a significant role for developing countries and CIS countries that have a financial need to emigrate to developed countries. Citizens are dissatisfied with wages and working conditions compared to developed countries, and this dissatisfaction is especially prevalent among specialists with higher education and experience seeking career growth. For example, immigrants to the United States are 1) mid-level and senior IT specialists who have reached the maximum possible career growth and salary level in the homeland; 2) workers of narrowly focused specialities who are unemployed due to the oversupply of the labor market.

Table 1 Classification of general factors of labor migration

Source: Table is based on: [3], [4], [6], [7] [7], [9], [10], [Ошибка! Источник ссылки не найден.], [11], [13]

Takhtarova K. A. highlights the peculiar trends of the modern labor market, such as: “standardization of conditions and work of people in different countries, internationalization of labor reproduction requirements, the democratization of labor relations, strengthening the social orientation of the economy” [14].

Political factors are those that caused the first migration processes in the world. Known mass “waves” of migration are observed during the First and Second World Wars. The tense political situation in the country, leading to discrimination against certain groups of citizens, forces them to look for employment abroad. These reasons are also noted by scholars Dorigo J.and Tobler W., who highlight wars, political persecution, discrimination [15]. Some reasons for this category become socio-psychological since they create significant discomfort for the employee in terms of social relations and psychological perception.

The next group of factors began to play an important role in the 21st century when human values have been significantly changed. Many scholars point out social or psychological reasons for migration. First, social factors include the development of the public sphere in the country. Dorigo J. and Tobler W. [15] mention “low level of health care, religious and political freedom, health insurance, education, development industry among the social factors”. Secondly, Takhtarova K. A. defines psychological factors as those which are formed on the ground of modern universal values [14]. Another scientist Yevdokimov A. I. [16] point out economic factors but also mention the importance of ethnic, cultural and family reasons of migration. Kislitsina O. V. [12] defines that the decisions regarding labor migration is caused by many subjective reasons in the context of globalization, i. e. “the possibility of personal realization through international social mobility”.

The emergent category of factors contributing to labor migration caused by natural disasters. However, this category includes the reasons identified by Dorigo J. and Tobler W., namely, environmental pollution, attractive climate, etc. [15].

Having identified the main factors that cause migration, we consider the situation of labor emigration in Ukraine today.

For Ukraine, labor migration (mostly emigration) is a common phenomenon among the working population. It provides better employment with higher wages and the possibility of further self-realization in better working conditions and welfare in general. Various mobility programs and work programs abroad are actively offered to students. These are usually seasonal jobs, but the share of migrant students never comes back home.

State statistics provide data on 1.3 million migrants, but experts give higher figures, namely from 2 to 4 million migrant workers [17]. On the part of the state, the main reason for the prevalence of this phenomenon is the high level of unemployment and the search for a better life abroad [13, 21].

UN experts report that Ukraine is among the ten countries with the largest number of migrant workers [1]. This situation has developed historically since Ukraine lost 15-20 % of its intellectual potential as a result of emigration in the 1990s. During the reforms (1991-2000) 70-80 % of its mathematicians left the country, 50 % of theoretical physicists who continue their activities abroad. Ukraine's annual losses from the departure of scientists and highly qualified specialists are estimated at more than 1 billion US dollars [18]. The most important problem for emigration countries is the irreversible loss of skilled labor.

According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in 2019 the flow of emigrants is estimated at 554,520 thousand people. The general dynamics of emigration from Ukraine is in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Dynamics of population emigration from Ukraine, 2003-2019, persons Source: [17].

As we can see in the graph, the trends of emigration flows in Ukraine have been changed significantly over the last 15 years. Since 2003, there have been about 700,000 emigrants in Ukraine, who tended to decline and reached the first peak and decreased by 19% (609,902 thousand people) in 2009. Economic factors negatively affected the emigration rate: after the international banking crisis of 2008, which began with the United States, the national currency against the dollar rose and improved the country's economic climate. In the period from 2010 to 2014, there was a slow increase. In 2014, political instability began in the country - the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the beginning of the Russian- Ukrainian war in Donbas. The unfavourable political situation reduced the share of workers who worked in Russia. In 2017, after the introduction of the visa-free regime, the majority of the Ukrainian population emigrated in search of work in Europe, mainly in Poland. It should be noted that during 2014-2018, political factors became decisive, both positively and negatively for emigration. The end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 significantly stimulated the reduction of migration flows of the Coronavirus disease outbreak (COVID-19), which became a natural and climatic factor both in the world and in Ukraine. Thus, the main factors influencing emigration in Ukraine are economic and political, and for the last year also natural ones.

The State Statistics Service claimed that in 2019 1.3 million people emigrated for employment (based on the calculation of people who go abroad for employment at least once in the last 2.5 years) [13].

The political disruption and economic crisis appeared in the country since 2014 has led to a decrease in the influx of emigrants to Russia. However, in recent years, migration from Ukraine has been variable, in 2020 Poland and other EU countries will replace Russia as the main destination country. Migration to the Russian Federation is caused by historical factors and began after the Soviet Union collapsed, which is related to political and social aspects. The deterioration of the situation after the change of government in 2014 increased the demand among Ukrainians for jobs in Poland, due to higher wages, geographical proximity, as well as the visa-free regime, access to this labor market increased interest among Ukrainians [19, 20].

One of the indicators that help to confirm the experts' opinions on the increase in emigration to Poland and other EU countries is the cash flow to Ukraine from the represented countries [19]. Matthias Lucke and David Saha expressed this opinion in their work. The report states that the geographical composition of remittances reflects the shifts in the countries of migrants' destination from Russia to Poland and other EU member states (Fig. 2). ¹² 1 10 -

Figure 2. - Net cash returns to Ukraine by recipient countries, USD million

Source: [18].

In 2018, more than two-thirds of remittances came from EU member states, which was compared to half of 2015 (Fig. 2). Poland replaced Russia as the largest country with a single source, accounting for a third of remittances in 2018. [19]

The difference between the level of wages in Ukraine and other developed countries always differed significantly. After several political and economic crises, this development increased especially. Although the average monthly wage increases every year, the state still fails to reach at least the minimum level. For example, in 2015, after the economic crisis, the lowest wage was $ 192 and rose to $ 326 in 2018, which is 25% and 10% of wages in the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany, respectively (Fig. 3).

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the Strategy of State Migration Policy until 2025 to regulate migration issues. This strategy primarily includes increasing funding, improving national legislation in line with international standards (visa liberalization with the EU) and promoting socio-economic development of the country [21].

Figure 3. - Average monthly wages in Ukraine and the leading countries of Ukrainian emigration in 2017, USD Source: [18].

The Ukrainian government constantly tries to improve the economic and political aspects of citizens' lives to reduce labor emigration. However, these two factors are not the main ones, and their partial elimination does not significantly reduce the emigration flow of human capital. The state should pay attention to the regulation of the environmental and social sectors. Improvement of the citizens' physical and psychological well-being will also reduce the overall tension and increase the demand for employment opportunities in Ukraine.

Conclusions and prospects of further research. Labor migration is not a new phenomenon today because historically it existed at all stages of human development, but, nowadays, in the context of globalization, it is only intensifying. For this reason, experts and scholars actively study the nature of this phenomenon, especially emigration since its significant volume has economic and political influence, which destabilizes the situation in the world. Identification and review of the main factors influencing migration contribute to the state's ability to gain control over this phenomenon. It is necessary to develop effective ways to counteract the emigration of able-bodied people, to reconsider the causal links in Ukraine, as one of the most typical countries-emigrants. The analysis of literature sources allowed to identify four main factors influencing labor migration. They include economic, political, social (psychological) and climatic factors. The Ukrainian authorities identify the first two as the main reasons for emigration, and actively try to improve them (for example, the visa-free regime), but it leads to a reorientation of labor flow. However, the positive dynamics of labor migration indicates an inexpedient vector of management of migration flows by the state. For these reasons, it is worth paying attention to two other segments of Ukrainian life. An outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) showed that climatic factors also have a significant effect on dynamics. Moreover, if all four factors of migration are evenly improved, human capital will remain in Ukraine. First of all, it depends on state policy, which significantly affects the citizens' welfare and well-being.

In the future, the authors plan to analyze in more detail each group of factors (especially social and climatic) that affect labor emigration to the EU (Poland separately) and Russia. Based on the available statistics, a regression analysis will be conducted and the main factors of labor emigration to the EU and Poland will be defined.

labor migration macroeconomic

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