К 2030 году НАТО трансформируется в глобальную сеть для сохранения внутренней безопасности

In 2030, NATO appears as a remnant of the past. In effect, the transatlantic link floats in a world divided into islandsIn its latest intelligence report, the National Intelligence Council foresaw a world divided into islands.. Having reverted to isolationism, the United States has elected their first Latino president on the motto America to Americans. They have disengaged from the affairs of the World. NATO thus survives, but only as a word, like the roman respublica under August. Marked by imperial decline, the United-States exploit their own oil. America has lost the sense of geopolitical realities. The unlimited quest for prosperity having come up against a dead end, the United States experience a religious revival, that insists upon the sacred character of the new promised land from which America has turned away in order to govern world affairs -for the better and more often the worse.

The new time is marked by a return to wilderness. This isolationist withdrawal logically benefits to Americas competing powers. The Latino population now reaches 20% to 25% of the population of the United States. Spanish has become the first language spoken in the southern states. However, the implication of these changes should not be over-interpreted. Like the barbarian kingdoms willing to perpetuate the Imperium Romanum, the majority of the new American populations, see themselves primarily as “American”. In any case, the internal problems of the US or Canada are so important that waging wars outside has become a luxury they cannot afford any more. Restoring peace and order inside has become the priority. As a consequence, the size of NATO has become disproportionate to the needs of its members. Most of the civil servants recruited in 2020 have fictitious jobs.

In Europe, NATO launches periodically campaigns of communication in order to justify its presence. Competitiveness is at half-mast. Older European societies cultivate leisure as their sole purpose. Rivalled by Indian, Chinese, Russian, Iranian, Brazilian, Algerian or Mexican elites, European economic leaders carry on losing market shares. Having conditioned many export contracts to a significant transfer of technology, European industries are forced to become excellent to retain a decisive advance. The ousting of Greece from the euro area and the subsequent collapse of the monetary unit has brought about the loss of the European assets placed in Athens. An unprecedented confidence crisis in the European currency occurs. Noting the failure of all political solutions, Europeans massively turn away from politics. The democratic deficit of the European Union spawns populism and Euro-scepticism. Among the key reforms, the European Commission forces the French minister of Defence to integrate his forces into the new Eurocorps and to put in common his capacities of defence with other NATO member states in order to save moneyLe monde vu en 2030 par la CIA, йd. des Йquateurs, 2013, p. 175..

This shift masks the collapse of the national defence policiesHorizons stratйgiques, ministиre de la Dйfense, introduction, p. 24.. In the same time, the necessity of border control, in order to prevent access to illegal Mediterranean migrations, has become so strong that countries like Italy threaten to leave the Schengen Treaty. The grandpa-boomers are now in an extremely precarious situation, they have become increasingly dependent on younger generations. Germany experiences spasmodic armed riots in its old industrial valleys between the Old Germans (Altdeutschen) and the self-directed Islamic regions. Scotland has left the United Kingdom. In Ceuta and Melilla, Spanish forces have been overwhelmed by flows of migrants. Facing massive migrations, the European states remember that it was once a NATO intervention that involuntarily accelerated the process by destroying the Libyan regime.

By 2030, Russia has -on the contrary -strengthened its internal coherence by reviving its own identity. Thanks to sweeping reforms finalized to the defence of a territory inherited from history, but of a much smaller size than Romanov Russia, it reconfigures itself defensively around the north-east passage. The rise of maritime traffic in the Northeast route is the indirect consequence of global warming. The melting of Arctic sea ice enables the Russians to create Siberian exploitation bases of hydrocarbons and mineral deposits.

Maritime transport in the Arctic Ocean has become very profitable to supply the Kara Sea bases or to get cheaper raw materials. In Western Europe, the Russian cultural centres now select qualified asylum seekers and send the best ones to the University of St. Petersburg that welcomes carefully selected researchers. The contribution of these new migrants -which can be compared to the former Prussian or French Huguenots settlers -coupled with a rebound in the birth rate, enables Russia to reconnect with population growth. In 2030, the Russian Federation counts nearly 150 million soles. By that time, Russia has managed to break the encirclement imagined by NATO, thanks to the former Soviet republics gained to Washington. Ukraine has regained its place of matrix territory of the Slavic world, under the protection of Russia. Indeed, the active lobbying of countries like Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and Austria have influenced the bigger European States to take a more measured position vis-а-vis Russia, especially as many incidents have demonstrated the reality of the doctrinal foundations of the pretended democratic Ukrainian nationalism. Abandoned by Washington on the one hand, and the European Union on the other, Ukraine experiences a severe economic crisis that forces it to accept a compromise with Russia. Yet if the situation in Russia seems stabilized in the West and in the Caucasus, it is facing a strong Chinese migration pressure in Siberia. In effect, hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers have crossed the Amur River to settle in Russia where their cheap labour force is exploited to re-exploit abandoned collective farms or develop the industry.

Have ancient military confederations a secret of longevity?

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Classical antiquity provides several examples of confederations that figure as miniature alliances compared to contemporary military organizations. Five main cases stand out. The first is the Second Athenian Confederation, from 377 to 355 BC J-C, a maritime league of Aegean cities aimed at countering the expansion of Sparta. The second is the League of Corinth, which designates several confederations of Greek cities allied to the kingdom of Macedonia. The third is the Peloponnesian league, an alliance of Greek cities dominated by Spartan power between the 6th and 4th centuries BC. The fourth is the League of Delos, a military alliance founded in 478 BC, in order to repel the Persian enemy. The fifth one is the Latin league, a confederation uniting about thirty cities of ancient Latium in order to organize a mutual defence against external aggressions. How can we explain the longevity of these confederations compared to the alliances of the early modern period? The scale -which is that of the city -is undoubtedly at stake. However, two fundamental elements must be added: even though egalitarian and collaborative institutions are put in place, the hegemony of the strongest city is ensured. Secondly, these alliances are all the more durable that they are cemented by a common religious and cultural integration.

The ancient military alliances function as a hegemon, guaranteeing the domination of the imperial centre despite the existence of representative institutions. The first League of Corinth is founded in 337 BC. This is apparently a simple treaty of “common peace”. The cities are represented by their respective delegates, who sit on a Council. However, these delegations do not have equal votes. This alliance quickly became a sym- machy, obedient to a man. The Peloponnesian league, controlled by Sparta, resumes the same mechanism. It is controlled by a council of allies, which consists of two bodies. The first is the assembly of the Spartans, and the second, the Congress of the Allies, in which each allied

City-State has one vote. However, Sparta is not obliged to comply with all the resolutions of the League. The Delos League provides another example of a military alliance which ensures the hegemony of Athens under an egalitarian outlook. This hegemon could not have been established without the monetary power of the imperial heart, founded on its silver mines. The links between Athens and its allies are from the middle of the century the relations of a mother city to vassal cities. Thus, in 454 BC, AD, the treasure of Delos is transferred to Athens. The history of the League is punctuated by the revolts of allies contesting the Athenian tribute and the conquests carried out for the sole benefit of Athens. Finally, let us mention the Latin League, directed in principle by a Concilium Latinorum but placed under the tutelage of Rome from 493 BC J-C. The Foedus Cas- sianum renews the alliance between the Romans and the Latin, but this fadus xquum gives Rome as much weight as all the thirty cities of the league. In theory, the treaty stipulates that the command of the federal army will be alternating, but in practice, this command is given to the Romans. The Greek and Latin confederations have therefore in common that the so-called egalitarian forums of discussion serve as a screen for the exercise of hegemony. They also combine military and cultural dominations.

The domination of Athens on the League of Delos is reflected by the wide diffusion of the Athenian model, and the obligation for the allies to use the currencies, units of weight and measures of Athens. In 440, a decree forces the allies of the League of Delos to provide a sacrifice for the Panathenaea. In 425, another decree indicates that the allies must march to the Panath- enaeas as the colonies of Athens. Athens behaves like the metropolis of these allies as if it had colonized the whole Aegean Sea. In addition, the allies must go to Athens for the Great Dionysia in early spring. In the same way, the cult of Athena, protective goddess of the Athenians, spreads. It is attested in the Greek archipelagos, at Samos, Cos and in Evia. The same evolution is to be noted among the thirty members of the Latin League where each city tries to establish a sanctuary dedicated to a federal worship in order to establish its legitimacy. The Latin cities celebrate federal cults, the most important being that dedicated to Jupiter Latiaris, the deified form of King Latinus, perceived as the common ancestor of all Latin. For the celebration of this cult, the Latin gather once a year in Alba, during the Feriae Latinae. A common sacrifice is made at the top of Mount Albinus in honour of Jupiter Latiaris. In the ancient military confederations, the longevity of alliances can thus be explained by a military hegemon carefully masked by representative institutions, combined with a deep cultural and religious influence. The domination of the mother city over its vassals naturally generates resistance. In this sense, the Antigone of Sophocles assumes a political significance: if Antigone decides to conform to the laws desired by the gods, because they are superior to human laws, this lesson is equally valid for the subjugated cities of the Empire, which sometimes wonder if it is necessary to conform to the Athenian decisions when other and more divine laws exist.

A lost citadel in the tartar steppe: the paralysis of NATO

For NATO, the two most relevant historical precedents are the Delos League (478-404), transforming Athens into an imperial power, and the Confederation of the Rhine (1806-1813), enabling Napoleon to give a virtual sovereignty to the little German states while imposing on them a heavy military tribute for his Russian campaign. It should be noted in both cases that the alliances were based on a financial burden guaranteed by a treasure (located in Athens or Paris). The history of these two leagues was punctuated by revolts challenging the imposed tribute. Perpetual negotiations thus accompanied their existences. The historical evolution of these alliances was marked by an increasing pressure from the imperial matrix on its vassals while the constraints imposed on them became more rigid. In reality, it was only at the very end that the small Greek cities or the German states turned their backs from the collapsing imperial power. In effect, heavy coalitions tend to put in place rigid and bruising procedures, even though the diplomatic atmosphere in which they evolve remains intrinsically volatile. They are therefore infinitely less efficient than bilateral alliancesThe military alliances to which France participated over the centuries are, in 85% of the cases, bilateral treaties. Their efficiency is not proportional to their morality: for example, the sacrilegious union of the lily flower and the crescent lasted between 1536 and 1799, because of the rational interests of the two parties. It is noteworthy that a military agreement encountering the strong hostility of the General Staff is always liable to fail. Let us consider, for example, the Franco- Soviet Treaty of Mutual Assistance of May 2, 1935, which -confronted with the incomprehension of the general officers -was never applied. Alliances with more than two partners are relatively marginal. For France, they have generally included between three and eight members and have not lasted in time. We can quote here the Triple Alliance concluded at The Hague on January 4, 1717, between the United Provinces, Great Britain, and France, the Family Pact signed on August 15, 1761, at the instigation of the Duke of Choiseul, between the Kings of France, Spain and the Duke of Parma, the quintuple alliance formed at the congress of Aix-la-Chapelle in 1818, the eight-nation alliance which crushed the Boxer revolt in 1900, the triple agreement that bound France, the United Kingdom and Imperial Russia in 1892, and finally NATO, which is an exception because of the disproportionate number of its members. Most of these alliances had very limited effects. In any case, they did not survive the limited objective they set for themselves. In these circumstances, we may legitimately wonder what is the point of making an alliance with more than two members. Paradoxically, even if the multinational alliances do not have a high military efficiency, they can be very advantageous as long as the war has not broken out. Let us remember, for example, the Franco-Indian alliance, which bound France to the various Amerindian nations. This enabled the French and the Indians to form a haven of peace in the middle Ohio valley before the conflict broke out and ruined the French ambitions. whose longevity is far superiorTo this respect, the Anglo-Portuguese alliance -from the 14th century to the 1890s -can be quoted.. They are also less flexible than a succession of coalitions with short-term objectivesSeven successive coalitions were necessary to defeat Napoleon, but eventually succeeded.. Retrospectively, historians situated the climax of NATO interventions in 2003, when the pressure exerted by the imperial heart on the allies-vassals was at its maximum. During the following decades, NATO interventions continued but were increasingly questioned by its members. Strongly criticised by the United States from 2021 onwards, NATO started behaving as an independent body. By 2030, its military inactivity had fuelled its bureaucratic expansion. No surprise why the Italian President described it, as a lost citadel in the Tartar SteppeCf. Dino Buzzati, The Tartar Steppe, 1940..