Geostrategy at the EU’s South-Eastern gate

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National University of Public Service

Geostrategy at the EU's South-Eastern Gate

Istvan Tozsa, Janos Sallai

Budapest

Annotation

hungarian europe geostrategic migration

The study presents the geostrategic causes of Asian and African migration to Europe since 2015. Illustrated with maps and technical border protection data, it presents the Hungarian government's response measures and its effects, with particular regard to the Southeastern border region of the European Union and the Schengen border region. The study highlights the geostrategic significance of the global process affecting Europe.

Keywords: border area, migration processes, Schengen agreement, counteraction of illegal migration, south-eastern part of the European Union, geostrategy

Аннотация

Геостратегия у юго-восточных ворот ЕС

Иштван Тожа, Янош Салай Национальный университет государственной службы, Будапешт, Венгрия;

Статья посвящена исследованию геостратегические причин азиатской и африканской миграции в Европу, начиная с 2015 года. Представленные в исследовании картами и технические данные о мерах по защите государственных границ, иллюстрируют ответные меры венгерского правительства и их результаты, применительно к Юго-восточной границе Европейского союза и приграничному району Шенгенского соглашения. Исследование подчеркивает геостратегическое значение глобальных процессов, происходящих в Европе.

Ключевые слова: приграничный район, миграционные процессы, Шенгенское соглашение, противодействие незаконной миграции, юго-восточная часть Европейского союза, геостратегия

The main text

In 2014, the European Union's economic engine was undoubtedly Germany, which occupied a leading position in Europe in terms of its economic strength (Fig. 1).

2014 was the first year when the EU-28 GDP ($ 18,437 billion) exceeded that of the so far unrivalled global superpower, the US (USD 17,528 billion). See Fig. 2.

It is a strange coincidence that the Libyan and Syrian dictatorial systems collapsed by the “Arab Spring” brought to life by American “democracy exports” have been replaced by civil war and weak state powers, and the suddenly intensified migration from Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan in 2015. As a result of the civil wars and the global warming, the economic and social turmoil of the regions of Asia and Africa has led to masses heading towards the prosperous Europe, especially Germany (and through Germany to Scandinavia), in the hope of a better existence.

The number of people living below the poverty line in Africa and Asia is towering above the societies of a higher standard of living but less population of the European Union countries (see Fig. 10).

Thus, according to the authors of this study, the modern migration of the population threatens all Europe, especially the European Union. The young age and gender of migrants (men in the hope of later family reunification) and their traditional large-scale family model are, on the one hand, a danger to demographic rearrangements for aging European societies. Securing their social care also poses a double threat. On the one hand, it raises internal social tension, especially in the case of the EU member states of Central Europe, where the amount of aid from migrants (per month per thousand Euros) far exceeds the average income (for example, a monthly average net income of a university professor in Hungary equals the net benefit of a migrant given by the German state). On the other hand, the extra burden on immigrants would increase the borrowing and the debt of the member states. All this is in the interest of the international money supply provider of state loans. The nation-state aspirations of international debt countries are necessarily weakened (Fig. 3).

In a cultural sense, the mass influx of migrants makes work and social integration difficult due to different religious and moral values. Think of the subordinate role of women in immigrants, of different Islamic economic ethics, of different working patterns, of the lack of language skills and of the sacred war against the Christian “unbelievers” or “infidels” who may even have younger generations of immigrants in the host country without locally-linked identity terrorism (Fig. 3).

in whose interest? Cui prodest?

The European Union's leadership and the UN support migration despite its expected effects (Fig. 3). The geostrategic question arises as to whose favour is it? Obviously, the socio-economic burden on EU Member States in the supply of immigrants in Germany, with the slowdown of the German economy, is a fundamental interest of the US foreign policy. Thus, in particular, with the exit from the United Kingdom (Brexit), the Union is no longer a direct economic challenge to the US global super economy. The other Member States, and especially the post-socialist, economically weaker Central Europeans, would be forced to borrow again to fulfil their obligation to provide immigrants. This is also in the interest of the US-based international money market and at the same time generates a cyclical conjuncture effect on the global economic crisis. But what makes German political leaders to support migration?

The European Union's German economic hegemony can gain ground -- after the Second World War this time peacefully -- if the EU Member States would give up their independent foreign affairs for the strongest EU economy and move strongly towards the European federation. The idea of a European, Christian nation-state with a very strong culture seems to block this way. The nation-state can be weakened by international borrowing, by changing its internal demographic and religious composition, so that the immigrant, virulent culture is preferably homogeneous (Islamic) in all EU countries. According to German political leadership, the reception and maintenance of a few million immigrants in Germany -- and the imposition of some additional million migrants on the Member States -- is the price for Germany to be the sole and governing force of the European Union not only in economic, but also in social terms. The German European Union -- especially if the French are leaving for the purpose of establishing a French Mediterranean and North African Union -- can be a worthy economic partner and challenger of the United States if it becomes a politically unified federation with neoliberal “nation-states” that are satisfied with their cultural autonomy. Therefore, the illegal migration towards the European Union is going to be accelerated by American financial interest which does not wish to compete with a too strong EU, especially if Germany tries to cooperate with Russia and China. Chine has initiated the New Silk Road global project. It is a real danger for the US super power of the world if German expertise, Russian resources and Chinese expansion meet in any economic formation!

Geostrategic position of Hungary

At present (2018), six of the 28 countries in the European Union (UK, Ireland and Cyprus, and Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia, which have joined the Union lately) are not members of the Schengen border zone. Of the non-EU Member States, however, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland are members of Schengen. Among the countries covered by the Schengen Convention, the free movement of labour and capital is realized without border controls between countries.

If we look at Fig. 4, we see in geostrategic terms that the most vulnerable point in the Union is the Greek archipelago, which is not inland to any Schengen country, and the islands are practically cannot be protected from a border control viewpoint. In 2015, mass migration to Germany from Turkey started. Since Greece has not tried to comply with the irreconcilable Dublin Convention on the Treatment, Registration and Allocation of Immigrants, migrants were freely moving towards Macedonia, via Serbia and Hungary, Austria and to Germany. At the same time, a mass migration started through Libya that sank into an administrative chaos, from African regions stricken by drought, global warming and civil wars, like the Sub-Saharan Sahel region via a sea route, with entry into Italy. Italy is trying to handle immigration, but it cannot stop it and it is becoming ever more burdensome.

As long as the EU does not force its Member States to receive refugees with mandatory and top-limits reception, the primary destination for migrants is the “Milk with Milk Honey”, Germany, Scandinavia and the United Kingdom. This is a north-west route from Greece and a northward route from Italy.

For this reason, Romania and Bulgaria, and Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are not yet migrants' destinations. Illegal inland migration affects the Schengen zone only in Hungary -- as a gateway, or a transit country to Austria and Germany. On the map, it can be seen that a corridor is “offered” to Hungary by the two EU but non-Schengen members, Romania and Croatia, where migrants to Germany can enter the Union in the hope of further free and uncontrolled movement. When Hungary implemented its border protection system (the “Fence”) in detail in the following chapter, to meet its EU and Schengen commitments, it forced the migrants tune from the Turkish-Greek route to the west to try via Croatia through Slovenia and thus to get into the Schengen area.

It should be noted, however, that if the leaders of the European Union are obliged to include migrants in their respective countries, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia will be exposed in the same way as internal social tensions with respect to inclusion. The purchasing power of the one thousand Euros per month for migrants granted in Germany is higher in these Central European countries than in Western Europe. The argument that immigrants -- as a labour force in Europe -- are not justified by the surveys so far, because only a small part of migrants came to work in one year Cynthia Kroet: Most immigrants in Germany fail to get jobs. Die Zeit. 18/12/2016. More than

400,0 asylum seekers were registered with employment agencies, but only 34,000 got work..

Fig. 4 The member states of the border control system (the Schengen zone) of the European Union. The inadequacy of the south-eastern part of the EU is appreciable; the Greek Schengen membership and the horseshoe shape of the EU border with Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia. The fragmented geographic features of the area (the Greek islands of the Aegean Sea and the Croatian Adriatic islands, the long-running valleys, the mountain chains like the Dinarian Mts, Rodope Mts, the Balkans and the Carpathians) favour illegal infiltration rather than border protection

Tuned to Schengen

After transforming the regime, Hungary turned to the Euro-Atlantic direction and prepared for NATO and EU Schengen accession¹. In the meantime, several migratory waves reached Hungary's borders, so in 1989 the Romanian and GDR invasions, and then in the 1990s the Yugoslavian civil war and the Bosnian events, escaped from the southern borders, which came from the then political leadership, the law enforcement forces, especially the Border Guard. Later, due to the Afghan events Sallai, J: A Schengeni Egyezmйny йs a magyar hatвrфrizet. EURФPAI TЬKOR. (2001) 5. 65100 pp. (Schengen Treaty and Hungarian border control in: European Mirror). Kobolka, I. -- Ritecz, Gy.; Ritecz Gy. -- Sallai J.: A MK вllamhatвrвnak ezredfordulos kriminвl- foldrajza. Szakmai Szemle: A Katonai Nemzetbiztonsвgi Szolgвlat tudomвnyos -szakmai folyoirata (ISSN: 1785-1181) 1: 33-41. pp.(Criminal Geography of the Hungarian State border in Journal of the Military National Security Service)., many refugees, migrants, came to the eastern border. Meanwhile, during the Schengen Sallai, J: A schengeni egyezmйny felйpitйse, tartalma йs vйgrehajtвsвnak tapasztalatai. Budapest: Rendфrtiszti Fфiskola, 1999. (Rendvйdelmi fьzetek; 1999/5.) 24. p (Construction, Content an Execution of the Schengen Treaty in: Law Enforcement Studies). preparation Egysйges belbiztonsвgi йs jogi tйrsйg Europвban: bel- йs igazsвgьgyi egyьttmukodйs az Europai Unioban. Budapest: Miniszterelnoki Hivatal Integrвcios Stratйgiai Munkacsoport, 1999. 345 p (A Single Homeland Security and Legal Area in Europe: Justice and Home Affairs in the European Union in: Report for the Prime Minister's Office). period, the Border Guard has modernized the available resources and EU subsidies, and their staffs were prepared mainly based on German experience and contacts. As part of this process, Hungary became a full member of the Schengen Member State in 2004 and later on 21 December 2007. Consequently, border controls were abolished at internal borders and reinforced the protection and surveillance of external borders. Since 2008, new and emerging security challenges have been challenging the guardians of the Hungarian (EU-Schengen) external borders. These were the effects of the 2008 global crisis. The impact of crisis crash points, see Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The double negative impact of the “Arab spring” in 2011: on the one hand, the elimination of the protective umbrella from Africa plus the role of catalysts from migration-emitting countries, the impact of Soviet civil war, and the effect of global warming. The smuggling of people was a “good business”.

As has already been said, in particular, the crisis in migration occurred in 2015 when the number of illegal, prohibited border crossings in the outbound borders increased to several hundred thousand. The activity of smugglers has also increased in parallel. The migration wave lasted until the Government of Hungary had closed its borders. The last moment of the closing of the Hungarian-Serbian border with the fence was to suspend the possibility of crossing of the people who were illegally entering the border crossing point at Roszke (between Serbia and Hungary). The main stages of this process are the following:

In Fig. 5, the thick arrow symbolizes migrants' mass and path. It is evident that they left the country in the northwest Austrian border area from the southern Hungarian Serbian border, via Budapest, towards Germany. Meanwhile, the thinner red arrows indicate the migration direction of the south-eastern, eastern lower intensity. With this big migration pressure, the Hungarian government responded to the “Temporary Security Boundary” (IBH) on the Serbian border Serbian border section (163.3 km long interdependent technical limit): -- In South Hungary a 163.3 km long vertical steel column safety lock has been established. Natural obstacle (e. g. river): 11.7 km. with a “fence or iron curtain” to which the migration pressure was moving westward and seeking a new escape route. In the southern border section of Hungary, a temporary safety barrier was built in two steps, nearly 300 km long, with the first line of fencing built as follows:

General technical characteristics of vertical steel column stop:

• Vertically positioned columns of 2.5 to 3 meters (in the case of the retrofitted sections at 5 meters);

• Horizontal stiffeners generally positioned every 10, inclined stiffeners positioned every 10 and 11, in two directions; -- fence on the side of the Hungarian side, 3 threads on 4 mm tension wire;

• At the top of the columns, there are 1 male threaded sleeves with one 3.1 mm wedge wire;

• A rope of NATO ropes on the tension wire and the swaddling lanes;

• Fixings are fixed by an attachment plate, with an on-the-spot shot-through solution;

• Motor vehicle gates per 10 km, passenger gates per 2 km;

• As a supplementary protection on the Serb side of the vertical steel barrier, a fasttrack barrier was built.

Quickly Installed Limiter:

• 2.5 mm diameter, 3 m long steep concrete bars per 5 meters;

• 3 rows of 3.1 mm tension wires;

• 3-4 rows of NATO rollers placed over each other;

• For reinforcing steel rods, Y for the 4th rope wire;

• Passenger gates per 2 km.

The structure of the fence is given by steel poles (C140 profile -- 4.5 m). The columns are cut at a depth of 1.5 meters with special pile milling machines, such that the height of the fence column is 3.0 meters. At the top of the remaining 3 meter section, goats and barbed wire were placed on each column. The wire mesh is made of 3 meters high and 15 meters long. The wire mesh material is made of galvanized steel wire of 2.5 mm diameter. The transverse reinforcement is made of C140 profiles, fastened at both ends with knot plates and fired nail technology, installed at every 10 columns or breakpoints.

The fence was built according to the police needs, with pedestrian gates and gates for driving the car. On the Serbian side of the fence, concrete poles were tilted 5 meters apart, using a guide wire to secure the 3-4 rows of barbed wire over each other. Structural materials are made of galvanized zinc coating according to MSZ EN 10025 standard S235JR according to MSZ EN ISO 1461: 2000 for corrosion.

Tensioning the guide wire is done with GRIPPLE tensioning eyes. The wire rope and the guide wire were fastened with galvanized steel tabs with firing nail technology to the structural elements; as well as wire rope with RAPID galvanized clips for the guide wire, every 30 centimetres. The wire rope and wire guide have a zinc thickness of 60-80gr / m2 and a tensile strength of 450-550N / mm2. NATO wire is made with pressed steel blades according to BTO-22 standard¹.

Figure 6 shows that the migration route from the Serbian-Hungarian border was diverted by the 17th of September, 2015 after the fence was built on the Croatian-Hun- garian border. But it also indicates that though in less number, but they still tried illegally to cross the Serbian-Hungarian border. Under pressure, the government built the “fence” on the Croatian border Vajlok, L: A hatarbiztonsagi rendszer hatekonysagat novelo infrastrukturalis, muszaki es technikai fejlesztesek 2016. evben. In: Evkonyv Budapest ORFK 2016. 1-4. pp. (Infrastructural, technical and technical improvements to the efficiency of the border security system in 2016. In: Police Yearbook Budapest). Croatian border section (133 km long continuous land border technical lock): In the area of SW Hungary, Counties a total limit of 53 km has been established. -- 36 km long fast-track wire rod (GYODA) and vertical steel column stop; -- Only 17 km stretch of GYODA was built. In Baranya County a total limit of 80.44 km was established: -- 76.1 km long vertical steel bar safety stop; -- Only 4.34 km long section was built GYODA., which pushed the masses of migrants (who wanted to reach Germany and Western Europe) to the west.

Figure 8 shows the post-fenced position on the Croatian border, showing the migrants to Slovenia, towards Austria. Later, following the tightening of border control and the fight against migration (the introduction of an 8 km zone and the enhancement of depth control), the following situation has emerged and is characterized by our present day (Fig. 9):

Nowadays, the Romanian relationship has strengthened; From Serbia the migrants illegally go to Romania and since there is no fence, they try to get to Hungary. To this end, there is a very small arrow from Croatia, directly along the Danube, as some migrations from Serbia have started in this direction; namely to Croatia and from there in the floodplain area to Hungary.

In sum, it can be stated that the instrument for combating migration is based on three major pillars:

Pillar 1 is the construction of a technical limit stop in Serbian and Croatian (155 + 140 km) relation. To this end, a 2-2 transit zone was established for the purpose of deciding on the external border, who is really a refugee, and who is not, to be kept away from the EU (SCH) area.

Border surveillance observers and rainbows have been set up to improve the efficiency of border surveillance and measures to increase the comfort of the border guard. On the entire Hungarian-Serbian border section, we set up about 158 monitors and 127 rainbows. In the case of tall observers installed at the end of the summer, they have also been redesigned. During the vaulting process, a windproof insulating layer was provided on the side of the high-heel side, providing a skid-proof shutter for the ladder and a high-security wind and precipitation protection, but a visibility plexiglass.

The delivery of electricity to the border section allowed several new developments. On the one hand, in the spring of 2016, a technical and electronic protection system has been set up at the existing temporary security borderline, which includes an intelligent camera system, lighting, voice warning and passive optical vibration sensing (motion sensor sensor) with continuous surveillance. As a result, 297 laser cameras and 89 thermal imaging cameras were installed at 193 installation sites, and their deployment in 2017 will continue.

Pillar 2 provides the right legal bases, such as the management and proclamation of the crisis caused by mass immigration, the possibility of using the armed forces in custody of the Schengen borders, the establishment and application of the transit zone, and the tightening of the Criminal Code.

Pillar 3 was the reinforcement of human resources, including the establishment of the Border Police Directorate, the strengthening of forces (own, national or foreign, for example, V4 /Visegrad 4/ countries: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) in border guarding.

This was the introduction of the triple unit (technical, legal and human) together.

As far as the geographic approach is concerned, we are talking about three zones as well in the hew border control system.

The first zone, the border guarding area zone focuses directly on the border area in a band of 8 km from the border with regular patrolling and technical devices.

The second zone, the border area zone is the 8 to 20 km band where controlling, inspecting the passersby, and checking the vehicles may take place.

The third zone is the depth control area zone stand for the total area in the depths of the country where upon suspicion control is possible.

The above actions and developments are a significant step forward in the implementation of effective border surveillance. Efficiency, on the one hand, enables new and improved technologies to provide a faster and more flexible response and, secondly, to ensure that even the most costly living is noticeably reduced on the border.

The biggest problem for Hungarian law enforcement agencies was the lack of readmission agreements, and it remains unclear why illegal migrants cannot be sent back to Greece where they first entered the EU. The Dublin conventions do not work. Moreover, Serbia does not reaccept any migrant, so the Hungarians cannot afford to send back anyone. In such circumstances, no one will be received back from Austria until it has been proved that the foreign person first entered into the European Union in Hungary.

Does Hungary protect Europe

The emergence of international finance and multinational economic interests does not care about the consequences of global migration processes, as neither the spread of cancer cells is blocked by the fact that they die by the destruction of the attacked organism.

The majority of population below the poverty threshold (less than USD 1.90 a day) lives in South Asia and Africa, while very few of them can be found in North America and Europe. The volume of masses under the poverty line just in Africa and Asia (650 million people) exceeds by far the number of people living in welfare societies, (500 million people in the European Union and 240 in East Europe including Russia. This Asian and African crowd has nothing to lose, but their lives. From the media, they see the comfort and wasting of welfare Western societies; they rightfully ask for these parts as well. If they cannot afford to live in their homeland, they will be on the road and will not be stopped by either the Turkish army or the Hungarian fence.

Comfort, security, high social care network, relatively very high unemployment benefit attract the African, Asian population living in extreme poverty towards the US and the European Union. Products, crops, and services consumed can be converted to the so-called ecological footprint, thus making welfare societies and poorer countries comparable. The ecological footprint of Canada, the USA, and the EU is extremely large,

Fig. 10 Migrants along the Hungarian border protecting fence on 15th September 2015 Source: own editing from WB, CIA, IMF data

while that of the African and South Asian and South American countries are little, especially if compared to their large population.

There are also great regional differences in the world if the distribution of GDP per country is taken. The European peoples are of little significance to Hungary's size and economic dimension, and are not suitable for preventing a modern-day migration of people. Yet it is the only way in which European culture is sustainable. This situation already has a responsibility for Russia, which is an ancient European country with European culture, and has huge resources and energy reserves in North Asia (Siberia). As a European and global great power, Russia is also responsible for keeping Europe European -- if Europe's strongest economic power, Germany and the Union and its economic policy leaders give up the protection of European positions. Unlike North America (Canada and the USA), Japan, and Australia surrounded by oceans and seas it is very difficult, if not impossible to protect Europe, or else it will be a sacrifice for global equalization processes regarding richness and poverty, overpopulation, global warming, demand for water etc. It is the Russian Federation alone that can protect the rest of European cultures in North, West and South Europe, with the possible cooperation of Central European countries like the association of the V4 (Hungary, Poland, Czech and Slovakia) that seem to decide to preserve the old values of patriotism and their nation-state status.

Figure 4 also shows a geostrategic situation that clearly shows that Greek Schengen membership was a hasty measure, as Greece, as demonstrated in the past several years, with its islands, close to the coastlands of Asia Minor, is defenceless in the case of illegal migration. Even the Italian peninsula can be more protected, given that only hundreds of miles of sea-going illegal immigrants can come. The protection of the south-eastern part of the European Union is clear from the geostrategic point of view: Slovenia, Hungary. In this regard, Romania and Bulgaria may only be a buffer zone. Even if Croatia and even Montenegro and Albania entering the Union in the distant future would be members of the Schengen border zone, the coastline of the Adriatic Sea islands would be as difficult to control as that of Greece. Hungarian fencing and successful border protection were not built for the past, not even for the present, but for the future.

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