Navigating the Ripple Effects: Brazil-China Relations in Light of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Politically, the initiative also reshape alignments in ways that are only beginning to emerge, including intensifying debates within Western Europe about whether individual member states or the entire European Union should formally join the BRI. The authoritarian nature of the Chiense regime and its central place in the promotion, financing and implementation of the BRI -- not to mention its emerging governance -- also raises question about the values and principles that will become associated with the initiative. With respect to the political sphere, China has become somewhat more willing to speak out on the internal affairs of other states, particularly when its leadership feels that the One China policy has come under threat. Since Latin America is the region of the world with the largest number of countries that maintain ties to Taiwan as well as a place where some countries have switched allegiances, the Chinese government is particularly attentive and sensitive to shifts in foreign policy towards China, as illustrated by its swift response to Bolsonaro's foreign policy statements during the 2018 presidential campaign.

The BRI is somewhere between a vision and a project, and it remains a moving target -- consequently, so are Brazil-China relations. Further research on this topic would benefit from Chinese perspectives on how the BRI relates to Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as Brazil more specifically. In Brazil, more research and debate are needed on the specific consequences of joining the BRI under the terms that are emerging. Finally, a comparative perspective including other Latin American and Caribbean countries would help to shed light on the differential impact of the BRI across the region as the initiative gets implemented.

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