The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine on the quality of life in the context of threats to global food security

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THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE ON THE QUALITY OF LIFE IN THE CONTEXT OF THREATS TO GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY

Taha Mohamed Daab, postgraduate student, «KROK» University,

Kyiv, Ukraine

Liashenko Oleksandra, Doctor of sciences (Economics), professor,

«KROK» University, Kyiv, Ukraine

Анотація

ВПЛИВ ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19 ТА ВІЙНИ РОСІЇ ПРОТИ УКРАЇНИ НА ЯКІСТЬ ЖИТТЯ В КОНТЕКСТІ ЗАГРОЗ ГЛОБАЛЬНІЙ ПРОДОВОЛЬЧІЙ БЕЗПЕЦІ.

Таха Мохамед Дааб, аспірант, ВНЗ «Університет економіки та права «КРОК», м. Київ, Україна.

Ляшенко О.М., д.е.н., професор, ВНЗ «Університет економіки та права «КРОК», м. Київ, Україна.

Наразі загрози продовольчій безпеці сягають світового масштабу. Великою мірою це спричинено повномасштабним вторгненням Росії на територію України і втратами, що виникли як внаслідок війни. Загалом до війни Україна постачала 10% світового експорту пшениці, понад 15-20% ячменю, понад 50% соняшникової олії. Після вторгнення Росії Україна обмежила експорт деяких зернових. За словами Верховного комісара ООН з прав людини Мішель Бачелет через війну України з Росією кількість людей з нестачею продовольства протягом року зросте на 47 мільйонів і буде майже 323 млн до кінця року. Перед усе, термін продовольча безпека стосується наявності їжі для людей без будь-якого дефіциту, і вважається, що продовольча безпека фактично досягнута, коли людина не боїться голоду або не піддається йому, і використовується як критерій для запобігання нестачі продовольства або перебоїв у майбутньому через кілька факторів. Такі фактори вважаються небезпечними, включаючи посуху та війни та інші проблеми, якщо загрожують продовольчій безпеці. Абсолютна продовольча безпека визначається як виробництво продовольства в одній країні на рівні, що дорівнює або навіть перевищує внутрішній попит і інколи можна вважати, що воно досягає концепції повної самоокупності. Показники відносної продовольчої безпеки стосуються спроможності держави виробляти та постачати те, що потрібно населенню у вигляді продуктів харчування повністю або частково. З цього ми робимо висновок, що концепція продовольчої безпеки стосується необхідності забезпечення населення необхідними продуктами харчування, яке може залежати від співпраці з іншими країнами або лише від самозабезпечення. Пандемія, спричинена Covid-19, і війна розірвали багато ланцюжків світової системи продовольчої безпеки, а отже відбулися суттєві перебої у безперервному забезпеченні споживачів продуктами харчування за розумними цінами. Методологія спирається на аналіз наукових проблем відповідно до характеру об'єкта дослідження, базується на таких методах наукового пізнання, як прямий (емпіричний) аналіз і синтез, індукція і дедукція, історичний метод. Результати дослідження стосуються представлення концепції продовольчої безпеки і ступеня впливу на неї природних катаклізмів і геополітичних конфліктів, зокрема війни Росії проти України, вивчення окремих показників українського експорту, що впливають на продовольчу безпеку деяких арабських та африканських країн, а також обсяги виробництва та експорту в різні періоди. Такі показники демонструють короткий огляд важливості України як «годувальниці» для деяких країн і наслідків, які відбудуться в разі припинення постачання сільськогосподарської продукції з України як від великого бізнесу, так і від малого.

Ключові слова: продовольча безпека, глобальна продовольча безпека, криза, глобальні механізми, Україна, економіка.

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After the Russian invasion, Ukraine restricted the export of some grains. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, due to Ukraine's war with Russia, the number of people with a lack of food will increase by 47 million during the year and will be almost 323 million by the end of the year. First of all, the term food security refers to the availability of food for people without any scarcity, and it is considered that food security is effectively achieved when a person is not afraid of or susceptible to hunger, and is used as a criterion to prevent food shortages or disruptions in the future in a few factors Such factors are considered dangerous, including drought and wars and other problems, if they threaten food security. Absolute food security is defined as the production of food in one country at a level equal to or even exceeding domestic demand and can sometimes be considered to achieve the concept of complete self-sufficiency. Indicators of relative food security relate to the state's ability to produce and supply what the population needs in the form of food in whole or in part. From this we conclude that the concept of food security refers to the need to provide the population with the necessary food products, which may depend on cooperation with other countries or only on self-sufficiency. The Covid-15 pandemic and the war have broken many chains of the global food security system, and as a result, there have been significant disruptions in the uninterrupted supply of food to consumers at reasonable prices. The methodology is based on the analysis of scientific problems according to the nature of the research object, based on such methods of scientific knowledge as direct (empirical) analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, historical method. The results of the study relate to the presentation of the concept of food security and the degree of influence on it by natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts, in particular the war between Russia and Ukraine, the study of individual indicators of Ukrainian exports that affect the food security of some Arab and African countries, as well as the volumes of production and exports in different periods. Such indicators show a brief overview of the importance of Ukraine as a «food-nurse» for some countries and the consequences that will occur if the supply of agricultural products from Ukraine is stopped from both large and small businesses.

Key words: food security, Global food security, crises, Global Mechanisms, Ukraine, economic.

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Introduction

Food security is a strategic goal that all countries around the world seek to achieve because it is linked to their national security - although it remains a major challenge for many of them - as they produce what they can produce or import the food commodities they need, affected by several internal and external factors. If the majority of these countries have given priority to economic interest and thus replaced the policy of complete self-sufficiency with the general principle of food security or what can be described as «food security in cooperation with others», then some others have adopted the principle of self-sufficiency at least with regard to basic commodities, especially grains despite the fact that The decline in their value in the market in a state of peace, and we even find some of them from the major global exporters, noting that many of them have previously suffered from the scourge of wars Whatever countries choose, the goal is to achieve food security for peoples. Therefore, the international community has adopted a set of mechanisms that help enhance global food security and build resilience during crises, especially protracted crises, although the latter has shown their limitations due to the emergence of economic crises and the rise in Prices and the spread of hunger in several regions of the world. This limitation contributed to the deterioration of the food security situation, which required the international community to redouble efforts to strengthen these mechanisms, especially in light of the Covid-19 epidemic crisis (or using the technical term «pandemic» Covid-19), which has had severe and unprecedented economic and social effects for all countries , due to the great interdependence between parts of the world, in addition to other effects that are still unknown, which will inevitably lead to the exacerbation of this situation.

Literature review. Many researchers and religious professionals have made numerous contributions about lunch and lunch security. But from my point of view, I will present to you the issue of food security and the factors affecting it such as disasters and political and military conflicts, and I will review the production data of the country chosen for study «Ukraine” to study the sources of its food exports over a number of years and how the world, especially the Arab and African countries, are affected by the existing conflicts Currently and its repercussions on the export and import of agricultural products such as wheat, barley, flour, corn and some other materials that are important to the life of the citizen. And comparing it with countries in general in terms of the global ranking and the ratio of production and export and its quality in each of them.

Aims. This issue is of great importance in two respects: the first finds its support in the position that food security per se and its role in achieving peace and prosperity for peoples at different times, and the second finds justification in that the Covid-19 crisis is a real test of the solidity and effectiveness of food security. or collaborate with others. From the impact of the outbreak of the Russian- Ukrainian war on Africa and Asia. Also that rising food prices may lead to revolutions if shipments of Ukrainian wheat stop, as there is concern about what will happen to regions and countries around the world that depend on Ukrainian food.

This article, which analyzes the scientific problems in accordance with the nature of the research object, is based on such methods of scientific knowledge as direct (empirical) analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, and the historical method.

Results

Through research and presentation of the concept of food security, as well as the extent of the impact of natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts on it in particular, as some indicators of Ukrainian exports that affect food security for some Arab and African countries, as well as production and export rates at different periods, were presented to give a brief overview On the importance of Ukraine as a lunch basket for some countries and the repercussions that will occur in the event of an interruption of agricultural supplies from it. Whether on a personal or family level, or in terms of the work of companies, institutions, or even countries.

The state of Global food security in light of the current crises.

Global food security is characterized by deterioration and fragility, and perhaps the most prominent manifestations of this deterioration are the emergence of economic crises, rising prices and the persistence of the spread of hunger despite the efforts made internationally to enhance it, and this food security situation will certainly be exacerbated by the negative repercussions of the current crises such as the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the current political crises.

Which is exacerbated to the level of armed conflicts, which will require unified efforts to improve them.

Is there a global food crisis.

Malthus predicted more than two centuries ago - since the publication of his famous essay on population in 1798 - that food production would lose the race and that terrible disasters would occur as a result of an imbalance in the proportion between food and natural increase in population. The world's population has increased nearly six times what it was in Malthus' time, and despite this, per capita food production and consumption is much higher than it was in Malthus' days. This has been accompanied by an unprecedented increase in living standards.

The brilliant scientific developments that occurred in the second half of the twentieth century had the greatest impact in this regard. The technical discoveries in agriculture, the use of fertilizers and medicines that resist agricultural pests, the improvement of irrigation systems and the increase of irrigated areas led to a doubling of grain production in the year 2000 than it was in 1960, the year that was considered the starting time for the green agricultural revolution. 2 tons to 6 tons in Britain, while it needed to be increased from 0.5 tons to 2 tons to a full 1000 years earlier [1]. food security war export

The innovations in the fields of gene transfer and genetic engineering have also led to the creation of new types of crops with high productivity, high nutritional properties and resistance to pests and drought, which made it possible to reduce malnutrition rates and eliminate famine at the global level.

Traditional factors affecting food security.

Food security, in the sense synonymous with complete self-sufficiency, was a necessity for every society, and it did not begin to deteriorate until the modern era. And when the fear of further disruption increased with the growing nutritional needs of societies, especially the developing ones, increased attention to the demand for self-sufficiency. The great attention given by many countries after World War II, especially the newly independent countries, to the issue of agricultural development, led to the food and population balance remaining balanced throughout the period (1950 - 1985), and the global food production was even greater in its increase in population growth rates. For example, the average increase in cereal production was 2.7% annually, while the population growth rate during that period was 1.9%, which is considered a high global rate However, after 1985, the production of grain began to witness a change in its increase, and the production deficit led to the withdrawal from the stockpile to fill this deficit. Despite this, the per capita global consumption decreased by 3%, and this resulted in a rise in wheat prices in the world market. And wheat-importing countries with low incomes face many difficulties [2].

Factors and causes that led to global food insecurity.

There are many factors and causes, whether local or international, that have contributed significantly to the deterioration of global food security, including.

Population growth acceleration.

Although recent indicators indicate that population growth rates have begun to decline somewhat, population growth has become a major global problem, especially for developing countries, because it accounts for the majority of the population increase that the world is witnessing. It is worth noting that the world's population is not equitably distributed on the surface of the earth, as about half of the world's population lives on only 5% of the land area, while 57% of the land area does not live more than 5% of the total world population, and 21% of the world's population lives in developed countries, and 79% of them are in developing countries. The urban population has risen from 2% of the world's population in 1800 to 37% in 1970, to about 50% today. The proportion of urban population in the developed world differs from that in the developing world at the present time, as it reaches about 75% in the developed countries, while it does not exceed 35% in the developing countries [3], and the latter is expected to reach 57% in 2025, or 4 billion people [4].

There is no doubt that the rapid growth of the world's population in general and urban populations in particular has economic, political, social and environmental impacts on all countries of the world, in particular on developing countries and their food security.

Resource deterioration.

The resource problem is not limited to the disparity with population growth rates, but rather the deterioration of some basic resources. Agricultural lands are declining in area due to the process of erosion and urban sprawl, and other areas are declining in fertility due to over-exploitation. Desertification, which is the final stage of land degradation, is now threatening about a third of the land area (48 million km2) and threatening the livelihoods of at least 850 million people, mostly in Africa and Asia. This is in addition to the problem of fresh water, whi ch has become acute in recent years in some regions of the world, including the Arab world, and the problem of fossil energy sources (petroleum, natural gas and coal), as the overproduction and consumption of these sources will lead to catastrophic damage to the global environment.

Environmental exhaustion.

Both developed and developing countries have contributed to the process of environmental exhaustion and destruction, but the contribution of developed countries, which owns about 85% of the global national product, to exhausting the global environment is much greater, and their ability to confront their environmental problems is steadily increasing annually. However, what was stated in the UNDP Human Development Report for the year 1996 is very expressive. Developing countries face increasing problems of water scarcity, deforestation and desertification, pollution and natural disasters. In developing countries, the per capita water supply is now only one third What was the year 1970, and every year between eight and ten million hectares of forest land is lost. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, an area of 65 million hectares of productive land has turned into desert during the past fifty years. Air pollution is a serious problem, affecting about 700 million people. , mostly women and children in poor rural areas, to household smoke from the use of biomass fuel. Natural disasters between 1967 and 1993 affected three billion people in developing countries and caused the death of more than seven million people with two million injuries. In industrialized countries, one of the main environmental threats is air pollution.

The deterioration of European forests as a result of this pollution results in economic losses of $35 billion annually, and the estimated value of agricultural production lost annually as a result of air pollution is about $1.5 billion in Sweden, $1.8 billion in Italy, and $2.7 billion in Poland and 4. 7 billion dollars in Germany. About 60% of Europe's commercial forests suffer from harmful levels of sulfur deposits. The production of greenhouse gases (the so-called greenhouse effect) also has a global impact. A country's share of environmental damage is often disproportionate to its responsibility in the presence of such damage. Although the United States of America and the former Soviet Union were responsible for about a third of global emissions of these gases, the greatest damage was sometimes inflicted on poorer countries. Bangladesh, which produces only 0.3% of global emissions of these gases, will be threatened by a 17% reduction in its land area (inundated) with a one meter rise in sea level as a partial result of global warming (global warming).

Global Mechanisms for Food Security.

In order to improve food security and ensure the unification of the efforts of most countries of the world to achieve this goal, a set of controls and frameworks have been adopted and mechanisms have been established for support and accompaniment in areas related to food security, including.

Creating frameworks and controls related to food security. Support and keep pace with areas related to food security.

Current and potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security.

The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has caused the injury and death of a large number of the world's population and cast a shadow over all aspects of human life, and even paralyzed it, after the movement of people, institutions, travel and production machines stopped, [5] and because of the interdependence in global commercial supply chains, the world was The entirety is vulnerable to the disruption of its social and economic structures.

«Disruption to the food supply is still minimal,» said Elizabeth Beers, a WFP spokeswoman, adding that «food supplies are adequate and markets are relatively stable» noting global cereal stocks at comfortable levels so far, and the outlook for wheat and other staple crops. They are positive until the end of the year [6]. According to international reports, the sectors most affected by the crisis are the tourism and leisure activities sector, the travel and aviation sector, the industry in general, the real estate sector, banking and securities activities. Personal hygiene and disinfection, retail trade, information and communication systems sector, then ecommerce. As for the sectors that were negatively affected, it was in a lesser percentage, it was education, petrochemical industries, then agriculture [7].

If the agriculture sector and the food industries associated with it were not significantly affected despite the restrictions imposed on movement due to the keenness of countries to maintain supply chains, this does not mean that things are going well, as this pandemic has become over the days an unprecedented challenge that involves Severe social and economic impacts, including compromising food security and nutrition, especially after some countries resorted to banning the export of basic food commodities - especially grains - such as Kazakhstan, Serbia, Vietnam, Russia [8] and Romania - before they backtracked on that - knowing that Russia only banned exports to countries outside the Union Eurasia and Romania only banned exports to countries outside the European Union [9].

The potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security.

Several months have passed since the beginning of this global crisis, and no party has any knowledge of the date of its end and how the world will bear its effects. The world is in a state of great uncertainty about what is to come. Before addressing the potential effects of this pandemic on food security, given the strong link between the economic aspect and food security, it is okay to shed light on a study conducted by the American Harvard University, through which I tried to study scenarios for the recovery of the global economy after this pandemic.

This study concluded that the economic impact of the Corona epidemic will be temporary, but if the general closure continues or the reluctance to exchange after the improvement of indicators, this will upset the economic system, which may mean laying off workers and expanding the size of unemployment. But if the economic failure arrives to stop the wheels of production, especially the basic economic production processes such as agriculture, industry and energy materials, the matter may be disastrous [10].

This study did not specify how long this epidemic may take before it vanishes, but rather adopted the hypothesis of eliminating it after finding a vaccine within a year or a little more, given the global efforts made in this regard, which is not certain because all possibilities remain.

If we look at the effects of the Ebola epidemic, which was only limited to a limited geographical area and did not reach the degree of a pandemic, the latter greatly affected food security, the economy and the livelihoods of people in the affected and at-risk countries in West Africa in December 2014, when about half a million people were People suffer from severe food insecurity in the three most affected countries in West Africa, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. A shortage of agricultural labor, on food production. In Liberia, 47 percent of farmers have not been able to farm, restrictions and market closures have disrupted the flow of food and life necessities, and commodity shortages have pushed up commodity prices. One of the most important causes of food vulnerability was the reduced ability to access food, driven by the decline in economic activity that reduced the purchasing power of households [11].

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its failure to abate sooner will already affect food security. Restrictions can impede food logistics, completely disrupt food supply chains, and affect food availability. While this pandemic slows down the economy of countries, access to food will be negatively affected by reduced income and job losses, as well as the availability of food in local markets, thus threatening the food security of all people, especially those living in the poorest countries [12].

The matter will become more dangerous if agriculture is completely suspended, and most countries exporting basic food commodities will resort to banning exports, especially with the emergence of the first signs of that. Also, the loss of confidence in the flow of basic food commodities may lead to «panic buying» or panic buying, and consequently to higher prices, as emphasized by Elizabeth Beers, spokeswoman for the World Food Program [13].

Certainly, countries that suffer from humanitarian crises will be the most affected, as this pandemic is likely to have significant effects on the delivery of humanitarian aid and recovery aid,[14]. as well as putting the entire humanitarian action at stake because it will require a huge budget to implement its operations in addition to the risk of infection with the epidemic. Both for the beneficiaries and the frameworks supervising the process, and in this regard, David Beasley, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Program, said that the global spread of Covid- 19 resulted in «the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.» [15]

Immediate actions and measures to address food insecurity during the COVID-19 crisis.

In this paragraph, we will discuss each of the measures to be taken by states and governments, and the measures to be taken by the international community.

Immediate measures to be taken by states and governments.

The first of the urgent measures that any country or government can take to avoid the negative repercussions of this crisis is to fill the shortage of food commodities, especially basic (first) after that and in a second stage, keep these food commodities by storing them according to the conditions in force to avoid pests (Second) Parallel to all that, implanting confidence in the hearts of peoples is necessary to avoid panic (third), and coordination with international organizations for countries experiencing crises remains a humanitarian duty (fourth).

First: filling the shortage of food.

The first measure that countries should take to avoid any negative repercussions of this crisis on their food security is to determine the food reserves available to them - especially the basic ones, especially cereals - with an estimate of the current year's product. Food commodities from abroad. This step, which is considered an emergency measure, is punctuated by two sets of risks, the first is the rise in international prices, which leads to the difficulty of purchasing despite the availability of supplies in global markets, which is known as price risks, and the second is the unavailability of food despite the presence of sufficient funds to purchase it, which is termed as risks. supplies.

This second type of risk is worrisome, as it has more severe consequences for countries that depend heavily on imports, as happened in May 2011, where the United Nations World Food Program estimated that food supplies could run out within six to eight weeks unless plans are put in place to avoid crisis [16].

Although the supply is an inevitable emergency measure in this circumstance to avoid the worst, the wisdom necessitates avoiding the risks of supplying in crises by achieving self-sufficiency for countries that have the natural capabilities and qualifications due to its connection with national security, or at least working to create a reserve in the event of welfare, even if By supplying for countries that do not have the capabilities to achieve selfsufficiency in basic food commodities.

Second: food storage.

Storage is one of the basic elements in the strategy of food security, especially for basic food commodities, and it is a technique known to farmers at different times, and it is intended to keep the thing for use in a future time, and this definition applies to all products, but since grains have specifications and components that make It is the most important source of food in the world, so storing it means preserving its characteristics from the time it is produced until it is consumed, and during this period of time several changes occur, so storage contributes to fortifying it in order to use it at a later time without compromising its quality. Excess storage. Although storage is considered the most important process in the post-harvest system, many countries do not have a clear strategy in this field, [17] because it requires a large budget to increase the absorptive capacity of storage and the associated maintenance and treatment work, and the training of workers in this field.

However, what can be said is that it is high time to include this technology among the priorities of the countries' food security strategy and to allocate it with sufficient funding as a precaution for crises, especially in light of the negative effects of climate change, which must be dealt with as a structural phenomenon.

If the formation of the reserve or the stock is of great importance, the measure of the latter is no less important than it, because it focuses on ensuring that the needs of markets and individuals for basic commodities are met as efficiently as possible and that there is no extravagance or misuse of stocks, and thus food commodities are kept under direct supervision by governments It is used in certain circumstances, and this stock is traded periodically, so that quantities are taken from it to compensate for it in similar quantities, so that the food does not lose its nutritional character, and the quantity and type of this stock is determined by the conditions of each country and its economic and technical capabilities [18].

Third: Instilling confidence in the citizens.

Instilling confidence in citizens during the onset of crises, that the state or government is able to provide their food needs constantly while ensuring access to them for all groups, plays an important role in avoiding panic and changing purchasing habits and thus stabilizing markets and stabilizing the flow of food, as at the beginning of crises panic spreads And the fear of running out of goods, and many resort to storing what they can store, each according to his capabilities - for fear of the unknown and in anticipation of having to stay in their homes for a long time - [19] and this affects the supply of markets and contributes to the rise in prices, and among the measures that contribute to implanting confidence is maintaining supplies The markets are constantly monitored, prices are monitored, and monopoly traders are reprimanded to ensure that goods reach all classes.

Fourth: Coordination with humanitarian organizations.

To facilitate the work of international organizations and the access of humanitarian workers to people in need, the governments of the countries concerned with this assistance must provide the necessary aid and support for this purpose. States bear the primary responsibility under international law to ensure that the basic needs of civilians and the civilian population under their control are met. However, if states are unable or unwilling to carry out their responsibilities, international humanitarian law provides for relief measures to be carried out by other actors, such as humanitarian aid organizations, with the consent of the concerned state. In order for humanitarian organizations to carry out their tasks, they must be given rapid and unimpeded access to the affected population [20].

The current and potential effects of the military conflict on food security.

Ukraine is a top exporter of corn, barley, and rye, but it's the country's wheat that has the biggest impact on food security around the world. In 2020, Ukraine exported roughly 18 million metric tons of wheat out of a total harvest of 24 million metric tons, making it the world's fifth-largest exporter. Customers include China and the European Union, but the developing world is where Ukrainian wheat has become an essential import. For example, about half of all wheat consumed in Lebanon in 2020 came from Ukraine, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Relying on bread and other grain products for 35 percent of the population's caloric intake, Lebanon is critically dependent on Ukrainian wheat. Of the 14 countries that rely on Ukrainian imports for more than 10 percent of their wheat consumption, a significant number already face food insecurity from ongoing political instability or outright violence. For example, Yemen and Libya import 22 percent and 43 percent, respectively, of their total wheat consumption from Ukraine. Egypt, the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, imported more than 3 million metric tons in 2020--about 14 percent of its total wheat. Ukraine also supplied 28 percent of Malaysian, 28 percent of Indonesian, and 21 percent of Bangladeshi wheat consumption in 2020, according to FAO data. Unfortunately, a large part of the country's wheat production comes from the historical breadbasket of eastern Ukraine-Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhe, and Kherson oblasts, just west of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are already partially occupied by Russian and Russian- supported forces [21].

The Report FAO. 2022. Ukraine: Note on the impact of the war on food security in Ukraine has so information: «Before the escalation in February, Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetska and Luhanska oblasts were already facing a food crisis, with around 383 000 people acutely food insecure as of 2021.2 Moreover, between 2019 and 2021, the country had 9.9 million moderately and severely food insecure people (as per the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) measuring chronic food insecurity). 3 While the situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and unpredictable, there is growing evidence that loss of income, supply chain disruptions, increasing prices and related dependency on food assistance is significantly affecting the access to and affordability of food across the country. Preliminary analyses estimate that, as a result of the war, the projected decline of Ukraine's GDP (by around 45 percent in 2022) may increase the poverty rate in the country, with approximately 60 percent of the population forecast to be in poverty by 2023, 4 presenting major risks to the food security of vulnerable households and communities. In terms of food security indicators, the latest United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) assessment found that one third of all households were food insecure, of which 5 percent were severely food insecure.

Another 28 percent were moderately food insecure or experiencing food consumption gaps and an inability to meet food needs without applying negative coping strategies. 5 The highest levels of food insecurity have been reported in areas most heavily impacted by the war, particularly eastern and southern oblasts, such as Luhanska (56 percent of the population), Kharkivska (50 percent), Khersonska (46 percent) and Donetska (45 percent), as well as northern Chernihivska (45 percent) and Sumska (41 percent). In these oblasts, one in every two households was found to be food insecure. 6 It is likely that these oblasts were facing higher levels of food insecurity due to significant access challenges for humanitarian assistance. 7 Similarly, access constraints have also caused major reductions in food security in besieged cities and other areas of active conflict. Urban areas are more likely to be affected compared to rural ones,8 with resulting food insecurity in urban areas likely to be more severe. In eastern besieged cities, shortages of food, water, electricity and heat were reported, while the comparatively few humanitarian corridors that have been established have been unable to adequately respond to vulnerable people's basic necessities. Shortages of infant formula and clean water are likely contributing to increases in acute malnutrition in the worst- affected areas, 9 while presenting the risks of major communicable disease to infants and children.

In areas such as Mariupol, the destruction of water infrastructure has placed the entire urban population at risk of cholera and other waterborne communicable diseases, amidst shortages of alternate water purification materials, medicines and destroyed medical facilities.10 Impact on food security 4 UKRAINE: Note on the impact of the war on food security in Ukraine, 20 July 2022 While the number of internally displaced persons has been decreasing since March, in June around 14 percent of the entire population of Ukraine was internally displaced as a result of the conflict (6.3 million people).

Poor displaced households are severely affected by the loss of assets and income generating activities, resulting in more concerning levels of food insecurity, and are in need of assistance. Food insecurity was found to be more prevalent among internally displaced persons (IDPs) (54 percent) compared to resident populations (23 percent).

Among all IDPs, those in the eastern (62 percent) and southern (59 percent) oblasts were the most food insecure. At the national level, households that were both displaced and separated from other members of their households displayed the highest levels of food insecurity (56 percent).13 Moreover, an FAO assessment shows that the majority (almost 60 percent) of interviewed internally displaced households previously had income from agricultural activities, which has now been lost because of the conflict. The assessment, which surveyed 289 registered farmers, was based on semi-structured interviews about the situational context in their respective areas» [22].

Conclusions

Through research and presentation of the concept of food security, as well as the extent of the impact of natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts on it in particular, as some indicators of Ukrainian exports that affect food security for some Arab and African countries, as well as production and export rates at different periods, were presented to give a brief overview On the importance of Ukraine as a lunch basket for some countries and the repercussions that will occur in the event of an interruption of agricultural supplies from it. Whether on a personal or family level, or in terms of the work of companies, institutions, or even countries.

References

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