Overview of migration changes in Europe in the last years and projections for the future (2019-2021)

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Nizhyn State University named after Mykola Gogol

Overview of migration changes in Europe in the last years and projections for the future (2019-2021)

Hrechka Oleh Hennadiyovych

Postgraduate Student at the

Department of Political Science,

Law and Philosophy

Анотація

The article proposes the definition of the essential characteristics of the concept of «migration policy» and examines the formation of migration policy in the context of the development of scientific theories of migration. The general factors influencing migration on which the efficiency of migration depends are revealed policy, and it is established that according to the direction of migration there are factors of «attraction» and «repulsion». The analysis of migration processes for the period2019-2021 is carried out and the influence of globalization processes on efficiency is revealed migration policy of both the EU and Ukraine. Factors influencing the migration of labor resources of Ukraine as an object of migration policy are analyzed, among which the close connection between the volume of labor migration and the average wage is revealed. Based on the analysis and forecast of migration indicators, measures to improve Ukraine's migration policy are proposed, which are based on the experience of EU countries.

The current stage of development of migration processes is characterized by the fact that to some extent migration flows cover all countries, and the scale of migration is estimated at hundreds of millions who cross the state borders each year for various reasons and for various purposes.

According to the World Commission on International Migration, there are now more than 250 million migrants in the world, including about 10 million refugees.

The high dynamism of migration processes in the EU is largely due to geographical proximity, cultural identity and the actual absence of restrictions on labor mobility in EU member states. Internal migration, which is caused by significant differences in wage levels and demographic trends, has a significant impact on the EU labor market in general and on the national markets of Central and Eastern Europe in particular. The need to study the impact of migration on the economic and social development of CEE countries, in the context of their European integration, in light of the growing emigration of Ukrainians to more economically developed EU countries has led to the relevance of this study.

Key words: migration policy, migration, migration processes, labor migration, globalization challenges, globalization.

Огляд міграційних змін у Європі за останні роки та прогнози на майбутнє (2019-2021)

Гречка Олег Геннадійович

аспірант кафедри політології, права та філософії

Ніжинського державного університету імені Миколи Гоголя

Анотація

migration policy globalization

У статті запропоновано визначення сутнісних характеристик поняття «міграційна політика» та досліджено формування міграційної політики в контексті розвитку наукових теорій міграції. Виявлено загальні фактори впливу на міграцію, від яких залежить ефективність міграції, та встановлено, що за напрямом міграції розрізняють фактори «притягнення» та «відштовхування». Проведено аналіз міграційних процесів за період 2019-2021 рр. та виявлено вплив процесів глобалізації на ефективність міграційної політики як ЄС, так і України. Проаналізовано фактори, що впливають на міграцію трудових ресурсів України як об'єкт міграційної політики, серед яких виявлено тісний зв'язок між обсягом трудової міграції та середньою заробітною платою. На основі аналізу та прогнозу міграційних показників запропоновано заходи щодо вдосконалення міграційної політики України, які базуються на досвіді країн ЄС.

Сучасний етап розвитку міграційних процесів характеризується тим, що в тій чи іншій мірі міграційні потоки охоплюють усі країни, а масштаби міграції оцінюються сотнями мільйонів осіб, які щорічно перетинають державні кордони з різних причин і з різними цілями.

За даними Всесвітньої комісії з міжнародної міграції, зараз у світі налічується понад 250 мільйонів мігрантів, у тому числі близько 10 мільйонів біженців.

Високий динамізм міграційних процесів у ЄС значною мірою пояснюється географічною близькістю, культурною самобутністю та фактичною відсутністю обмежень на мобільність робочої сили в країнах-членах ЄС. Внутрішня міграція, яка спричинена значними відмінностями в рівнях заробітної плати та демографічними тенденціями, має значний вплив на ринок праці ЄС загалом і на національні ринки Центральної та Східної Європи зокрема. Необхідність вивчення впливу міграції на економічний та соціальний розвиток країн ЦСЄ, у контексті їхньої європейської інтеграції, у світлі зростання еміграції українців до економічно розвинених країн ЄС зумовила актуальність даного дослідження.

Ключові слова: міграційна політика, міграція, міграційні процеси, трудова міграція, виклики глобалізації, глобалізація.

Introduction

The processes of international labor migration are multilevel and multi-vector. Their external economic effects are complex and multifaceted and have mixed effects on the economies of donor and recipient countries. The mass influx of migrants from the Middle East and Africa to Europe is firmly rooted in the «migration crisis.». However, this is a complex crisis. First, the humanitarian crisis is marked by the deaths and suffering of thousands of people. Secondly, the crisis in the management of both the border and the granting of asylum, in particular the procedures according to which the country responsible for determining the status of an asylum seeker is determined in the EU. Thirdly, it is a crisis of solidarity, as solidarity is the basis of the EU's unity, and finding a common solution to the mass influx of refugees that would allow a more even distribution of the burden on individual countries and their migration services has proved extremely difficult.

The purpose and objectives of the study: there is a theoretical substantiation, development of scientific-methodical bases and forecasts concerning migration changes in Europe for the last years. Review Europe's migration changes in recent years.

Research methods: the work used a combination of several methods and approaches, first of all - demographic, economic, psychological, which became the basis for the actual sociological.

In addition, statistical analysis of data from the State Statistics Service was used

Results

The overview is based on a combination of results from existing studies and new elaborations from official sources. The objective is to provide a backcloth against which challenges to be addressed and examples of good practice can be assessed.

Migration is a multifaceted phenomenon, which can be approached from many different perspectives. Depending on the approach, the conclusions on the impact of migration on economic growth, unemployment, and labor force participation will vary.

In many European countries, migration is only calculated as the difference between natural change and total population change (European Commission, 2014b). Migrants may leave their country of origin because of conflict, widespread violations of human rights or other reasons threatening life or safety. Many are compelled by the absence of decent work to seek employment elsewhere. They may also migrate to join family members already established abroad.

As globalization expands the global circulation of capital, goods, services and technology, migration responds to growing demand for skills and labour in destination countries. These factors along with ageing populations and declining workforces in highincome countries increase international migration, including mobility of labour and skills.

Most countries today are countries of origin, transit and destination for international migration. Migration has long contributed to economic development and social well-being in both destination and origin countries.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2020 has had a profound and lasting impact on a wide range of social, economic and environmental issues both within the EU and further afield. At the time of writing, the pandemic is still on-going and many of the EU Member States have some form of containment measures in place migration.

As of 1 January 2020, the EU's total population was 447 million.

Without immigration, Europe's population would have fallen by half a million in 2019, as 4.2 million children were born and 4.7 million died in the EU. Preliminary figures show that in 2020, the population of the EU decreased by around 300,000 people (from 447.3 million on 1 January 2020 to 447.0 million on 1 January 2021), due to net migration leading to fewer births, fewer deaths Combined results of increased and decreased numbers [6].

An estimated 169 million people were migrant workers in 2019 (ILO, 2021). 24.2% of migrant workers globally live in northern, southern and western Europe, and another 22.1% in North America. More than two- fifths of migrant workers have been placed in these areas, and they are among the first to suffer from layoffs, movement restrictions and lockdowns that affect their livelihoods, such as losing business [4].

In 2020, 8.6 million non-EU citizens were employed in the EU labour market, out of 189.1 million persons aged from 20 to 64, corresponding to 4.6% of the total [6].

The employment rate in the EU in the working-age population is higher for EU citizens (73.3%), than for non-EU citizens (57.6%) in 2020 [6].

Immigrants make up a large proportion of both critical and crisis-affected industries: 6 of the 20 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 cases (as of 10 October 2021) have more than 10% of service and sales employees Born abroad. In addition, available data show that over 9% of skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers in five of these countries were born abroad [4].

In 2020, the EU issued around 2.25 million residence permits for the first time, compared to nearly 3 million in 2019. The decrease was due to travel restrictions imposed to stop the spread of the Covid-19 virus. The pandemic has had a particularly strong negative impact on education-related licenses, reducing their share from 14% in 2019 to 11% in 2020.

In 2020, first permits were issued for the following reasons: “other” includes permits issued for the reason of residence only, permits issued to victims of trafficking of human beings and unaccompanied minors, as well as permits issued for all other reasons for which residence permits may be issued and which are not covered by the other categories.

Figure 1. Top 10 nationalities of first residence permits issued in the EU Member States in 2020 (Eurostat)

Figure 2. Number of permits, issued in 2020 for (Eurostat)

In 2020, asylum seekers came from nearly 150 countries. 472,000 applications were filed in the EU, including 417,000 first-time applications, a decrease of 32% compared to 2019. More and more applicants from visa-exempt countries (26% of firsttime applicants in 2020) entered the EU legally, mainly from: Venezuela (7.3% of all initial applications); Colombia (7.0%); Georgia (1.6%)); Peru (1.5%); Honduras (1.4%) [6].

In 2020, of the 141,000 asylum seekers under the age of 18, nearly 10% (13,600) were unaccompanied children. Most unaccompanied children are from Afghanistan, Syria and Pakistan.

In the first nine months of 2021, the EU filed 427,000 asylum applications (356,000 of which were first-time applications), a 23% increase from the same period in 2020, but 16% below pre-COVID levels (the same period in 2019). The number of applications in September exceeded 70,000, the highest level in a single month since 2016 [6].

In September 2020, the Commission presented the New Pact on Migration and Asylum including a detailed evidence paper which relied on available statistics on migration to Europe to underpin the policy proposals. The Commission published statistics on migration to Europe which will be updated every quarter based on the latest available data from sources including: Eurostat, OECD, UNDESA, UNHCR, IOM and Frontex and EASO.

Based on a holistic assessment, the Commission is proposing a fresh start on migration: building confidence through more effective procedures and striking a new balance between responsibility and solidarity [5].

More efficient procedures will ensure clearer responsibilities, helping to restore trust between Member States while bringing clarity to applicants. The rules will improve the link between key processes, notably asylum and return.

This has brought investment and operational support to Member States under pressure; new tools for a stronger external border and more effective EU agencies; and deeper cooperation with key external partners to address EU migration goals across routes as a whole, as well as new legislative developments.

The Pact set out a detailed roadmap of essential steps. Many of these have been implemented or advanced over the past year, but work remains incomplete. Rapidly changing migratory situations can lead to considerable pressure on the EU's external border. Any Member State, regardless of its geographical situation, can be confronted with complex migration challenges. Sometimes this is due to vulnerable people leaving their homes as a result of conflict, climate change, demography, human rights violations or lack of access to basic needs. But there is always a risk of new challenges. The recent state-sponsored migration movements, with the use of migration by Belarus as a political tool to destabilise the European Union and its Member States, are a vivid example. Established routes such as the Central Mediterranean have seen new surges in 2021. The crisis in Afghanistan may further increase the risk of forced displacement, migratory flows in the region and migrant smuggling towards the EU. It has also sparked a major global effort to address the crisis through humanitarian support on the ground, evacuations and resettlement of those in need of international protection, as well as support to Afghanistan's neighbours who are hosting refugees. The EU and Member States should play their full part through the Afghan Support Package announced in President von der Leyen's State of the Union Address, both in the immediate future and with a view to the medium- to long-term needs [1].

The Central Mediterranean experienced the highest increase (+82%) of all routes in the course of 2021. While the total number of arrivals in Malta in 2021 was 470, a 78% decrease from the same period in 2020, this should be seen in the context of a steep increase of arrivals in Italy with over 41000 total arrivals, almost half of these from Libya. Migration from Tunisia also remains high in comparison to previous years, accounting for almost 40% of irregular migrants arriving in Italy so far this year. One other significant trend is the increased numbers arriving directly in Italy, as opposed to landing following search and rescue.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been having a profound impact on all areas related to asylum and immigration. The impact has been especially pronounced with border closures, travel restrictions and the need for sanitation measures to try to contain the virus. EU and non-EU OECD countries have taken contingency measures to keep the system running and minimize the impact on migrants and citizens [7].

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected legal and irregular migration in 2020, creating several new challenges for migration management: at the same time, the pandemic has also shown that foreign workers play a key role in the EU economy, but legal migration The path is essential [7].

The pandemic has also highlighted the pervasive inequalities that are deeply ingrained in modern societies around the world [10]. Aside from health- related impacts, many became trapped in immobility and unemployed, without income support or other social protection [10].

Many migrant were suddenly repatriated, without operational systems and protocols in place. In some instances, public health law was used to justify their expulsion [2].

By mid-2020, the pandemic-related restrictions had stranded nearly 3 million people outside of their home countries. Many of these people were left without consular services, including help with their legal status in the country, and some were without enough money to provide food and shelter [9].

Figure 3. Irregular border crossings on the three main routes (source: Frontex)

Too many migrants continue to face significant humanitarian needs with devastating consequences, as many make life-threatening journeys, others are deprived of essential services and critical protections, and face additional threats in transit and destination countries. Hostility and exclusion [3].

Overall, the experience of the pandemic has re-emphasized the importance of establishing a more modern and coherent approach to immigration management. Timely information sharing has proven crucial, and EU Migration Preparedness and Contingency Plans have proven to be an invaluable platform for sharing the pandemic response.

Now more than ever, UNICEF needs to work with other UN agencies and partners to support host governments and communities in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and protecting the rights of children and families.

The continued migratory challenges at different parts of the EU's external borders but also within the Schengen area have continued to highlight existing shortcomings. The experience with Belarus has been a vivid illustration of the fact that irregular migration can affect all Member States. Until there is a comprehensive reform of the EU's asylum and migration system, as set out in the new Pact in September 2020, the EU will remain more vulnerable and less prepared to react to changing circumstances.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the country's rapidly escalating humanitarian crisis could lead to further displacement and exodus of refugees and migrants. According to preliminary estimates, an additional 500,000 Afghan refugees are expected to flee the country. Countries in the region have closed borders, restricted entry for passport and visa holders, and halted support for newly arrived Afghans. These actions likely control the magnitude of the movement. In the medium to long term, it will be difficult to fully control the activities of the region's vast borders and established smuggling networks. Rising numbers of asylum applications from Afghan nationals in the second half of 2021 suggest that EU arrivals will also increase in 2022 [8].

Combined with the economic recession in Turkey, the world's largest host of Syrian refugees, the primary and secondary flow of Syrians to the EU is likely to increase by 2022. Last year, the number of asylum applications filed by Syrian nationals in EU member states was 71% higher than in 2020 and 46% higher than in 2019 [8].

Neighboring countries have previously pressured the EU to make political or financial concessions in exchange for cooperation on immigration control. However, the deliberate creation of a migrant crisis at the EU's external borders, instigated and controlled by Belarusian authorities, adds a different dimension to previous cases. A quick, unified and strong response by the EU in cooperation with non-European partners has prevented this system. But in 2022, the situation will remain volatile and thousands of migrants will be trapped and their lives and well-being will be at imminent threat [8].

However, the EU's ability to provide a sufficiently robust framework for migration and asylum will inevitably depend on tangible progress on all proposals, including core tools for migration management and asylum. The Council should complete its ongoing work on the Regulations on the Administration of Asylum and Migration and the Regulations on Asylum Procedures and the Regulations on Crisis and Force Majeure on the basis of these two instruments as soon as possible. At the European Parliament, the Committee looked forward to the early submission of the Rapporteur's report and an agreement on a negotiating mandate by the end of the year. If good progress is made at the technical level, there may also be an opportunity to advance discussions on screening regulations, with a view to both agencies adopting their respective mandates by the end of the year.

Conclusions

These events demonstrate that the need for a sustainable European framework for asylum and migration is as strong as ever. This common framework must address the multiple challenges facing the EU: providing certainty, clarity and decent conditions for men, women and children arriving in the EU; strengthening the EU's capacity to manage its borders effectively; combating the smuggling of migrants; countries, transit and destination countries to work closely together to reduce irregular routes and ensure more efficient returns; and to promote sustainable and safe legal pathways. It aims to show citizens that immigration is a normal and manageable part of modern life that can be managed through effective and humane cooperation [1].

Overall, the total number of irregular migrants on all routes remains well below pre-crisis levels in 2015 - even taking into account the impact of the outbreak, which affected all activities in 2020-2021. However, arrivals have increased, reaching around 120,000 illegal crossings across all EU external borders in the nine-month period of 2021, compared with almost 77,000 in the same period in 2020 and just over 91,000 in the same period in 2019-2020.

The routes and flows of migrants, many of whom are vulnerable, continue to change. These will be closely monitored and, where possible, anticipated to ensure the EU is ready to respond to new trends. Recent developments in Belarus and Afghanistan show that the EU must constantly assess new trends and prepare to respond, adapting existing rules and anticipating new measures to stop state- sponsored migrant smugglers or criminal networks abusing the immigration and asylum system.

The COVID-19 pandemic is both a challenge to public health and immigration policy and an opportunity to integrate these policies. The challenges, whether political, economic, humanitarian or operational, are vast and varied. From a distance, however, the pandemic could be an opportunity to develop coherent, evidence-based strategies that leave no one behind in the spirit of the SDGs. The policy considerations presented in this report are the first steps towards a responsive and responsible approach to protecting public health and the rights of refugees and migrants in a mutually reinforcing manner.

This study assesses progress and key developments in immigration and asylum policy over the past few years, outlines the context in which progress is being made, identifies key challenges and outlines prospects for progress, outlines steps to be more robust, sustainable and equitable immigration and asylum policies.

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