Intricacies of French engagement in Sahel with peace prospects: assessing the policy shifts and its implications

The Macron administration has embarked on a modernization of its development cooperation efforts, aiming to increase the effectiveness and impact of its official development assistance (ODA). Data collected from the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, French Development Agency (AFD), OECD and DAC databases suggests that after nearly a decade of stagnant or decreasing aid spending, a multi-year financial plan announced in August 2021 outlined a gradual increase in ODA to 0.55% of GDP initially, rising to 0.7% by 2025.

The government plans to shift its focus towards providing greater support to the least developed countries, particularly in Africa, starting from 2024. Additionally, there is a concerted effort to increase the proportion of grants in bilateral aid to 70% by 2025, with a focus on priority countries and low-income nations, predominantly in Africa. However, there are still disparities in aid distribution. Although 18 African countries (along with Haiti) are officially designated as priority countries by France, none of them rank among the top 10 recipients of French ODA.

To enhance strategic oversight of development cooperation, France is establishing the "National Council for Development and International Solidarity" (CNDSI) to provide political guidance. French ambassadors in partner countries will also play a role in steering development efforts. These centralization measures are accompanied by an increase in the share of bilateral aid and the integration of France's technical cooperation agency, Expertise France, into the Agence Fran^aise de 0ёуе1орретеп1 (AFD) to improve project implementation and coherence. These changes signify a positive shift in French aid policy, aiming to address concerns about political bias and effectiveness.

Additionally, Macron's engagement with the politics of memory, including efforts to address colonial legacies signaled a willingness to confront France's past and forge a new narrative of partnership and cooperation with Sahelian states. Therefore, French foreign policy towards Africa has evolved significantly since Macron's election. While facing criticism and challenges, France remains a key player in African affairs, navigating a delicate balance between maintaining its influence and embracing a more inclusive and forward-looking approach to partnership with the continent.

The continued presence of military juntas in Sahel in 2024 seems to be shaping the security policies. The situation has deteriorated considerably in Chad, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Senegal. VEOs and communal ethnic violence remain a significant threat.

The interceptions of mercenary groups like the Wagner, now operating as 'Africa Corps', alongside Russian forces, further complicate the situation. In the coming year, the Sahel region is expected to see such violence along with the solidification of military rule as juntas across Sahel join hands. The juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are likely to strengthen ties through the new Alliance of Sahel States, delaying democratic transitions and consolidating authoritarian rule as we witness the crumbling regional efforts of both the G5 Sahel and ECOWAS. This joint force aims to address security challenges under shared security conditions.

The size of the force is not specified, but the three armies are expected to develop an operational concept to achieve their defense objectives. This could help unite citizens against perceived external threats. If the military popularity wanes and dissatisfaction grows, the juntas may face renewed unrest.

The graph indicates that the shift from support of one external power to another has not fared well as the instances of violence involving the Wagner group in Mali has seen a surge since 2022 from 2000 violent events to 2200 in 2023. The JNIM remained the most active violent group in 2023 in Mali.

Figure 1 - Increased violent event from 2022-2023 (Source-: https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2024/sahel/)

France may shift its regional policy towards coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea. Russia may increase its influence in Burkina Faso and Niger, providing opportunities for these countries to broaden security perceptions and resist extant international pressure. Coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea are experiencing a rise in jihadist violence, with Benin facing an emerging local insurgency. The crisis in the Sahel demands concrete and sustained assistance to eradicate terrorism and tackle the region's escalating humanitarian emergency. Of particular concern is the plight of the 6.3 million displaced individuals across the Sahel as counted by the UN Refugee Agency. Moreover, the multitude of initiatives aimed at addressing security, political, and humanitarian challenges pose difficulties in terms of coordination, coherence, and inclusivity.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Sahel region finds itself at a critical juncture, facing escalating challenges that threaten peace, stability, and fundamental human rights. The complex interplay of internal dynamics and external interventions underscores the pressing need for strategic and concerted action.

This study has shed light on the pivotal role of France in the Sahel, tracing its historical legacies and evolving contemporary engagements. Moreover, the examination of peacebuilding discourse has underscored the multifaceted nature of challenges in the region and the diverse roles played by both local and external actors.

Below are some recommendations which focus on action and policy-oriented paths to ensure inclusive peace processes in the region.

1. Negotiation and mediation exercises between parties involved in conflicts should be held on the sidelines of regional forums. This should lead participants to understand better the terms acceptable to both sides and which interests need most protection. It shall also convince the participants that negotiated peace settlements are possible and may work in their favor.

2. Leaders of ethnic groups must be part of wider diplomatic discussions to ensure proper representation of interests of the people.

3. The civilian government leaders must be brought to acknowledge that their positions on good governance and good practices must be clear, transparent, and immovable. Scope for dangling with malpractices should be nipped in the bud while reformulating governance structures.

4. Federal v/s decentralized governance option must be considered separately for different social groups placed in distinct geographical settings, with required quantitative and qualitative justifications. Special provisions must be made till deeply rooted conflictual pressures have been well dealt with.

5. Local actors must be empowered to pursue their respective rural and urban interests.

6. International funding records must be made more transparent and allocation details vividly clarified.

7. There is a need for coherence in actions directed at peace in the Sahel.

8. There is a requirement to employ Peace Studies as a tool for peacebuilding operations. Countries such as France and those in Scandinavian Europe could prove to be supportive in this respect. This can also be done through exercises within the EU Missions frameworks.

These recommendations address grassroot issues in international violent conflict situations and pave way for constructive external action with limited direct engagement. These steps are necessary to provide foundational strength to positive peace processes. Even though local actions set the groundwork for rebuilding societies, it is important that they are coherent at national, regional, and international levels as well. Amidst the uncertainties, it is crucial to evaluate the effectiveness of current efforts, both in statistical and value laden terms. Ultimately, achieving lasting peace in the Sahel using external actors like France and local initiatives requires collective action, unwavering commitment, and a steadfast dedication to addressing the root causes of conflict while considering alternative reconstruction strategies.

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Список використаних джерел

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AmbTchad. (n.d.). Available from : https://www.ambtchad-paris.org/tchad fr

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