2022: state in transitional era in transitional area

Размещено на http://www.allbest.ru/

Размещено на http://www.allbest.ru/

Borys Grinchenko Kyiv university

2022: state in transitional era in transitional area

Tetiana Kostiuk

Abstract

Throughout the history of mankind, the most difficult task has always been and re - ma ins the maintenance of society and social life in an orderly, balanced and dynamic state of optimal viability. The depressing regularity of social cataclysms, wars, crises, and local conflicts convincingly testifies to the extreme complexity of this task. Such complexity, however, does not negate the need and importance of scientific support for the analysis of the causes of specific bifurcation points in the societies' evolution and the development of new theoretical and empirical approaches to the study of their consequences, renaissances and transformations. The purpose of this article is to enrich (pe rhaps deepen) the modern vision of the categories of spatial and temporal transit of states in the context of a full-scale war in the heart of Europe by means of a detailed depiction of potential vectors of its direction within the framework of carefully chosen situ ational analytical optics. The methodological toolkit of this study is shaped by a syn - erg istic approach, which allows considering transition in its development in space and tim e depending on attractors. The principle of retrospective analysis and extrapolation ma kes it possible to draw parallels to confirm the predictions and avoid the gap be - twe en theory and reality. The research highlights that in conditions of russian aggression against Ukraine the concept of transition has a clearly expressed spatial and temporal determinism and affects a number of spheres that are undergoing the greatest transformations. Within the analysis of the reformatting of specific spheres, which is now based on the nature of responding to the extreme challenge of time, this study offers a binary overview of supranational (regional) and national trends. Reconstructing the post-war agenda, it was found that security, military, humanitarian and migration pol i cies are undergoing the biggest changes, as well as their consequences for individual states and the EU as a whole. This article may contain forecasts and provisions that can cause discussions, but taking into account that the war is not stopped yet and the variability of the development of events, it allows to go beyond the traditional discourse of t ransit, provoking the exit of scientific research to a qualitatively new level of theoretical reflection of the emanation of nowadays transformational challenges.

Keyword: stransition, transition era, transition area, public administration, strategic management

Анотація

2022: держава у перехідний період на перехідній території

Тетяна Костюк

Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана (Україна)

Впродовж історії людства найбільш складною задачею завжди була і залишається підтримка суспільства, соціального життя в упорядкованому, врівноважено-динамічному стані оптимальної життєздатності. Гнітюча регулярність соціальних катаклізмів, війн, криз, локальних конфліктів переконливо свідчить про надзвичайну складність цього завдання. Подібна складність, однак, не скасовує необхідність та важливість наукового забезпечення аналізу причин виникнення конкретних точок біфуркації в ході історичного розвитку суспільств та розробки нових теоретичних та емпіричних підходів дослідження їх наслідків, перероджень та трансформацій. Мета даної статті полягає у збагаченні (можливо, поглибленні) сучасного погляду на просторово-часовий транзит держав у контексті повномасштабної війни у самому центрі Європи засобом розгорнутої характеристики потенційних векторів його спрямування в межах ситуативно обраної аналітичної оптики. Методологічним інструментарієм даного дослідження виступає синергетичний підхід, який дозволяє розглядати транзит у його розвитку у просторі та часі залежно від атракторів. Принцип ретроспективного аналізу та екстраполяції дозволяє проводити паралелі для підтвердження висунутих прогнозів та уникнути розриву між теорією та реальністю.

В ході дослідження було виявлено, що в умовах російської агресії проти України поняття переходу має чітко виражену просторову-часову детермінованість та зачіпає низку сфер, які і зазнають найбільших трансформацій. В межах аналізу переформатування конкретних сфер, в основу якого тепер покладена логіка характеру реагування на екстремальний виклик часу, в даному дослідженні запропоновано бінарний огляд наднаціональних (регіональних) та національних тенденцій. Реконструюючи повоєнний порядок денний, виявлено, що найбільших змін зазнають безпекова, військова, гуманітарна та міграційна політика, а також їх наслідки як для окремих держав, так і для ЄС в цілому. У даній статті містяться прогнози та положення, які можуть викликати дискусії, однак беручи до уваги, що війна ще не завершена та варіативність розвитку подій, вона дозволяє вийти за межі традиційного дискурсу транзиту, провокуючи вихід наукових досліджень на якісно новий рівень теоретичної рефлексії еманації трансформаційних викликів сучасності.

Ключові слова: перехід, перехідна ера, перехідна територія, державне управління, стратегічний менеджмент.

Main part

Taking into account the events in Ukraine and the fact that they are not localized territorially, but have and for a long time will have a great influence on Europe and indirectly on the whole world, we can safely say that in the nearest future humanity will face a transitional era, and many states will belong to transitional areas. Of course, these areas will differ in the vectors of transitions, but whether they will be social, political or economic, all this will directly affect the management strategies of the European region in general and each individual state in particular.

War is always a destructive fact that inhibits development, increases economic difficulties, causes theall possible resources, stops progress in all branches of industry. However, firmly believing in the victory over rashism - a modern form of fascism - it is worth predicting and developing changes to current legislation to build the strong state.

Recently much attention has been paid to the issues of state development as a subject of international relations, policies that will ensure good neighborhood and prevent weak state administration and failures. It is worth noting that for a long time Ukraine was considered a weak state, a transitional state, a state with a transitional economy, etc. (Zelinska, Chechel, 2019; Yelagin et all, 2020). The pace of reforms, democratization of society, economic and legal transformations and a divided societywould preserve this status for a long time, but it is already partially stereotyped. However, the maturation and unity of the nation, determined resistance to the enemy, an effective and fierce war on the battlefield, diplomatic and informational arena, economic and educational fields changed the attitude of the world community towards Ukraine. But there are still many aspects that need to be taken into account and legislated so that after the victory the state can function effectively within the rule of law and within the status of the strong state.

Thus, in this article, we'd try to review the main steps in the development of state in the transitional era in transitional areas aimed at the strong state status preservation. The topic of the papers is too broad and can be only outlined in framework of a scientific article, however, it is important to briefly provide the essential flow of thoughts. So, first the meaning of the key terms is provided.

Research methods

Methods of research include primarily the synergetic toolkit allowing to consider further development after bifurcation (war in Ukraine) depending on attractors. The analysis is situational and is a form of political and existential overview and prognosis. The principles of retrospective analysis and extrapolation make possible to draw parallels to confirm the predictions and avoid the gap between theory and practice.

The article provides a notion of transition as a process of regaining the territorial integrity and limits, come back to existing before status quo at the national and international levels with simultaneous overcoming of existing before national and international regulations. It goes beyond the traditional theoretical vision of transition (Holovakha, 1996; Du Gay, Scott, 2011). As well proposed rethinking of transition categories determines alternative understanding of failed states.

Research results

The transitional era is a period in which things are changing from one state to another. The Cambridge dictionary says it is «a change from one form or type to another, or the process by which this happens» (Cambridge Dictionary, URL).

So, the countries will deal with passing to new methods and forms of co-existence, cooperation, collective decision-making, defense guaranties, economic development and the main goal is not to fail.

One of the characteristics of the state in transition is the «balancing» between the effort to achieve social stability and uncertainty (which is the reality of existence at this stage), and this «balancing» is complicated by the context of the transitional territory. Social stability in such context takes up the range of administrative and political steps directed on maintenance of civic rights, spirit and opportunities sufficient to keep struggling for changes, sustainable development and adequate response to the challenges to provide solid basis for the state to become in the forefront of transitional processes in transitional era in transitional area.

As for Ukraine, «transition (transition period) shall mean the period of time during which the State implements its policy to counter the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, restore territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, and ensure the state sovereignty of Ukraine, restore the operations of central and local government authorities in the temporarily occupied territories as well as eliminate

the consequences of the russian aggression against Ukraine, reintegrate the temporarily occupied

(deoccupied) territories and their residents, build sustainable peace, and prevent further occupation» and, of course, all mentioned above challenges (European Commission, 2021).

Passing to overview of the spheres of changes for the transitional era we'd eliminate the major ones as it's impossible to give notes on all of them. Taking into account the synergy principle it is worth to note that the given scenarios are considered to be the most obvious according to the up-to-date situational attractors. But as the war is going on these scenarios are definitely the prognosis which can get modified situationally.

The first aspect attributed to the transition process will concern security issues and redistribution of power at the regional level. The political rhetoric and processes of the war period in Ukraine (2022) clearly distinguish the leading countries on the continent and, in our opinion, it does not coincide with the generally accepted leading status based on financial donations. Thus, the small and relatively young EU member states (compared to old Europe founding countries of the EU) - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Baltic States and Great Britain, which is no longer a member of the EU, took the initiative in forming and announcing the EU's military policy against aggression, while France and Germany, recognized and proclaimed for decades as the leading legislators and policymakers of European trends in social, economic and political life, lost their scores. Taking into account the overseas actors of international relations supported these initiatives and claimed Germany for the delay with the weapon supply to Ukraine it seems sound to suppose the Europe will face the need to create new security alliances and centers of influence. The next electoral campaigns will contain programs operating very radical categories of support either for aggression or for peacekeeping in 2022, not of the degree of support of the participating states. It is obvious that a new alliance of influence on the continent could potentially become a union of Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states.

The second issue which has arisen from the first in Europe in 2022 is a polar shift in military policy. For many years the countries proclaimed the Arms Control and Disarmament strategy, which, of course, didn't mean shortage in modern technologies development and weapon construction. However, as time passed since WWII, the threat of a new full-scale war became increasingly unrealistic and dulled defensive sentiments on the continent. The year 2022 showed that sudden military aggression is possible, and what is worse - it is conducted not only at the level of strategies and military dominance. It is a genocide against Ukrainian people with the killing of civilians and children, the destruction of schools and hospitals, infrastructure, burning of the food storages leading to the famine etc. The war planned by russia as a blitzkrieg, dragged on unpredictably, leading to the exhaustion of resources, an unplanned increase in the production capacity of weapons and cartridges in Europe to be supplied to Ukraine, new situational contracts with overseas partners. Therefore, we predict that the new era of the development of international relations will be characterized by a transition to a gradual military strategies revision of each state and NATO as a whole with an increase in number of weapons in the armies of these states.

The next feature of a new transitional era will touch the humanitarian issues, primarily those of humanitarian interventions, the term «genocide» definition, human rights protection, migration issues etc. Transitional period will undoubtedly comprise elaboration of new laws or revision of existing ones on carrying firearms for civilians providing them more right to use firearms for self-protection and in some other cases. Not least important are the issues of national history, memory, language and culture cherishing. The Ukrainians have faced the consequences of decades of negligence of national heritage and language quarrels while the rest of the world pay the priority attention to national identification, culture and national identity protection. The vivid illustration of national attributes protection has been demonstrated by the countries when they gave protection to Ukrainian refugees fled from war: the first thing the governments did was free language courses. It is the major requirement for adequate adaptation in the country, working and living. And among other things, this is a very far-sighted strategy of the states in terms of human potential: after people have learned the language, found a job, only a small percentage of them will return to the country, the transition period of which is difficult to predict. As well all transitional area, mainly in Europe, will work out new laws on working conditions, social and legal protection, health insurance etc.

Taking into account above mentioned it is obvious that the main problem to solve in home affairs of Ukraine in a transitional era seems to be the migration issue. Gradus Research Company (Ukraine) conducted 2 stages of research on «Migration and socio-political attitudes during Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine» in May and June respectively (Gradus Research Company, May-June 2022). It was established that 37% of the audience changed their place of residence, of which 12% of respondents have already returned home. Most often, respondents left for another region within Ukraine (56%) or abroad (26%); less than a quarter (18%) of those surveyed migrated within their region (Gradus Research Company, May, 2022).

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) also conducted a survey in April, 2022 among those who crossed the border with Poland. 37% of respondents answered they would stay in Poland. The rest of respondents planned to go to other countries, they mostly choose Estonia (27.3%), Germany (23.6%) and the Czech Republic (14.5%) (Mix Digital Advertising Agency, 2022). Among respondents the 18-29 and 50-59 age groups are the largest.

According to the data of the second wave of the Gradus survey for June 2022, if the situation worsens, 21% of Ukrainians want to go abroad. Among those who went abroad and have not yet returned to Ukraine, 65% seek to return at the first opportunity.

Basic needs of immigrants:

money - 54%;

access to work - 40%;

housing and access to medicines and medical services - 19% each (Gradus Research Company, June, 2022).

It means that the problem of internally displaced persons and refugees abroad is multi-level: first, it is human capital, and therefore the greatest value for Ukraine; secondly, the brain drain will have catastrophic consequences for the state, the creation of innovative start-ups and progressive developments in various fields; thirdly, the demographic issue will soon become acute. In order for

Ukrainian citizens to return home, which will most likely happen en masse after the end of the war, state authorities should offer adequate financial and social conditions that would allow them to live at least at the pre-war level. In addition, various adaptation and restoration mechanisms should be considered, for example, free Ukrainian language courses, psychological support, retraining or continuing education with subsequent employment. In order to solve the demographic issue, a mechanism for inviting foreigners to live in Ukraine with subsequent granting of citizenship, primarily to qualified specialists, should be developed. The interest group has recently put forward a proposal to develop the test on knowledge of the history of Ukraine for all applicants for citizenship. The transition to a renewed society with a high level of commitment to Ukraine and democratic values will include updated approaches to the granting/ revocation of citizenship, retention of qualified specialists, creation of a personnel reserve in all the spheres of industries.

Discussion of the results

The main aspect, which is at the same time practical and philosophical and summarizes all above ones and the nowadays agenda and which must certainly be highlighted leads to the issue of armed forces and maintaining their combat capabilities. In the context of today's events, at first glance, this issue concerns mainly Ukraine, but if to analyse the history of European countries, it turns out that such mistakes were present in the policies of many of them.

The price that Ukraine is now paying in the war against russia is the price for the attitude towards the army from 1991 to 2014. But the experience of other countries demonstrates similar fails: In Germany, the Social Democrats killed the Bundeswehr, reducing it from 26 brigades to 6, and the British before the Falklands war almost disbanded the fleet and decommissioned the last aircraft carrier strike formations. It is obvious that humanity is prone to making this kind of mistake, as it always seems that war will never happen again. We'd hope that after 2022 war the peoples and nations will remember for a long time that the principles of brotherhood and trust should reign in the world. But this trust should not be naive, and the defence of the country is not only the business of the military forces fighting on the battlefield. This is the business of educators in kindergartens, family upbringing and school education, this is the business of academic expert circles, politicians who do not allow the army to collapse, even if there have been no wars for decades. An illustration of the above can be the army of Switzerland, which is the fourth in the world in terms of combat training, despite the fact that they have not been at war for 213 years. Responsible public administration must realize that a professional army is developed for decades, command positions are not assigned situationally and are not elected, applicants must participate in exercises, combat battles for a couple of decades, so that in war conditions such a commander can effectively manage the staff entrusted to him with minimal human losses. The experience of handling weapons is also acquired during the years, as the weapon is constantly being improved, updated and modernized. Therefore, the soldiers and commanders, who are now dying in the tens of hundreds at the front, in fact pay by their lives and health for the mistakes that our society has made and is making. The main message is that the mistakes of state administration in matters of the army and the defence of the country lead to the death of soldiers that is the collective responsibility of the entire nation. Therefore, during the transit period, great attention should in advance be paid to preparing of a reliable defence capability of each country and proper propaganda, and the cost of managerial mistakes and political bargaining in this area is too high - it's a huge threat to all mankind.

Any transitional period brings radical changes in all spheres of society's life. The biggest challenges lie before the state administration bodies of each country. The most noticeable transition area these days is the European Union, so, challenges will be posed to the governing bodies of this supranational entity in the field of joint policy development, way of decision-making and the collective security. In addition, the whole world is currently a transitional area in terms of changing the attitude of humanity to societal values, correct assessment of events and development of an adequate response to them. Each war, with its devastating consequences and human losses, should keep the focus of mankind's attention on the issue of respect for the norms of law and appreciation of human life as the highest value for a long time. In general, in the transitional era each state should concentrate on nation building, create an adequate state policy based on the principles of responsive neighborhood, mutual respect and non-interference in the state affairs of other states. At the same time, the transition to peacemaking and collective policy elaboration should not exclude increasing the ability of states to develop, assert and defend themselves. It is the proportional set of challenges and their proper solution that will become the task of the state in the transitional area in the transitional era.

This article is prepared as part of «STIPENDUIM» Erasmus+ JM project coordinated by the author since 2019, since long before the current status quo, we predicted that only principles of adequate state public administration and a sound foreign policy aimed at observing the aims of good neighbourhood, societal values and achieving common well-being would enable an effective atmosphere of international relations and sustainable development of humanity.

References

space time transit war

1. Cambridge Dictionary. Transition. https://dictionary. - cambridge.org/ru/%D1% 81% D0% BB % D0% BE % D0% B2% D0% B0% D1% 80% D1% 8C/%D0% B0% D0% BD% D0% B3% D0% BB % D0% B8% D0% B9% D1% 81% D0% BA % D0% B8% D0% B9/transition Du Gay, P. & Scott, A. (2011). Transformation de l'Etat ou changement de regime? De quelques confusions en theorie et sociologie de l'Etat. Revue frangaise de sociologie, 52, 537-557. https://doi.org/10.3917/rfs.523.0537 (In French) European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission). (2021). Ukraine Draft Law on the Principles of State Policy of the Transition Period. URL:https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/docu - ments/default.aspx? pdffile=CDL-REF(2021) 055-e Gradus Research Company (2022, June). Migration and socio-political attitudes during Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. https://gradus.app/documents/258/ - GradusEU_publicztion_wave2_UA_MW7vdId.pdf (In Ukrainian)

2. Gradus Research Company (2022, May). Migration and socio-political attitudes during Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. https://gradus.app/documents/256/ - GradusEU_survey_wave1_UA_hSorts5.pdf (In Ukrainian)

3. Holovakha, Ye.I. (1996). Transformiruyuscheesia obschestvo. Opyt sotsiologischeskogo monitoringa v Ukraine (Transforming society. Experience of sociological monitoring in Ukraine). Kyiv. Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (In Ukrainian)

4. Mix Digital Advertising Agency (2022, July, 13). Mihratsiya naselennya Ukrayiny pid chas viyny (Migration of the population of Ukraine during the war). https://mixdigital.com.ua/blog/migracziya-naselennya-ukraini-pid-chas-vijni/

5. Yelagin, V.P., Mamonova, V.V., Luhovenko, N.V., Voropai, L.A. (2020). Economic prerequisites for development of financial and credit system in Ukraine: socio-humanitarian discourse in context of social transformation. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 1 (32):453-462. https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v1i32.200829 Zelinska, M., & Chechel, A. (2019). The " weak state" concept: theoretical roots and practical implementation. Skhid, (2 (160), 60-65. https://doi.org/10.21847/1728 - 9343.2019.2 (160).165724

Размещено на Allbest.ru