The share of nuclear energy in electricity production in 2021

Source: based on [2].

France occupies a unique place in the world of nuclear energy, having for many decades been the country with the largest share of nuclear power plants in the production of electricity, which, despite its decline, still reaches 69%. The capacity of 56 French nuclear units is 61,370 MW, which made it possible to produce 363,394.15 GW?h of electricity in 2021.

Ukrainian nuclear energy plays an important, unique role in the country's economy, providing 55% of all electricity in 2021. At the same time, the country's nuclear plants cannot be replaced by others. For example, thermal power plants operating on hard coal are difficult to provide with the necessary raw materials both in terms of volume and quality.

Nuclear power plants are important for the energy industry of Slovakia, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, South Korea, Spain, and Romania (Table 1). The role of atomic energy in the United Kingdom and Canada is not so significant, but it is noticeable.

Germany's refusal to develop nuclear energy in the future and the gradual closure of nuclear power plants already existing in the country at that time has several components. energy germany decarbonization atomic ecological

Initially, the complete abandonment of such stations did not find support from the authorities, but was actively promoted by environmental organizations and individual political forces. A significant change in the situation came after the accident in March 2011 at the Japanese nuclear power plant "Fukushima-1", the cause of which was an earthquake in Japan, one of the strongest in the history of mankind, which caused a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean. In June 2011, the German government made a radical decision to completely abandon nuclear energy by the end of 2022. Now this decision has been postponed until the spring of 2023.

An analysis of the essence of the problem and the development of events that took place around it over the past years showed the following. The decision to completely abandon nuclear energy was probably more emotional and psychological than rational, which is supported by a number of arguments.

The key factor that directly caused such a decision was the largest earthquake in Japan. It should be noted that earthquakes of similar intensity are quite rare there, the destruction of the station was not caused by the earthquake itself, but by the tsunami due to the location of the station directly on the coast. Although Japan has many nuclear power plants, they were not affected by this earthquake. Northern Europe and Germany are generally not characterized by any significant earthquakes capable of damaging such objects.

The accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant did not lead to the abandonment of nuclear energy in Japan itself. Currently, 19 nuclear reactors with a capacity of 18,184 MW are operating in the country. There are no known plans to abandon nuclear power in Japan today or in the future.

The question arises: how does the elimination of nuclear power plants in Germany and the problem of radiation safety correlate with the existence of many nuclear power units near the country in neighboring countries, where there are many times more of them than in the country itself? Only France, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic, which directly border Germany, have a total of 74 nuclear reactors as of 2021.

The abandonment of nuclear energy was to be accompanied by an increase in energy production with the help of wind and solar power plants. Such an increase, even a very noticeable one, took place in recent years, but it is far from sufficient to replace the energy of not only nuclear, but also coal and gas power plants.

There have long been no insurmountable technical or economic obstacles to a radical increase in electricity production using offshore wind farms, but it has not been done. Only now has it become known about the plans to build really large offshore wind farms as part of international cooperation projects capable of providing Europe with energy. But the implementation of such projects will take a long time.

Germany did not have any liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, relying on overseas pipeline gas supplies, although such terminals existed in many neighboring European countries. Only recently, the current government of Germany is making intensive efforts to build six marine terminals, which in the future will also be able to receive liquefied hydrogen.

The rejection of nuclear power plants did not take into account the significant increase in world prices for oil and natural gas, which has been happening recently, and the problems of their delivery, which are worsening.

It was not taken into account that the nuclear power plants that existed in Germany were complex, technically perfect objects of high reliability, managed by highly qualified specialists. A lot of money and time was spent on the construction of such stations and the training of specialists. The operation of nuclear power plants was economically efficient. In the case of a constant increase in global energy prices, the importance of this factor increases.

It is also very remarkable that countries that are extremely scrupulous about environmental protection, have an exceptionally picturesque nature, such as France (the world leader in the number of foreign tourists) and Switzerland are not going to give up nuclear energy, but are also devoted to the ideas of developing ecological types of energy. According to the Reuters agency, in November 2021, French President Emmanuel Macron, in particular, said: "We are going to resume the construction of nuclear reactors in our country for the first time in several decades and continue the development of renewable energy sources" [3]. Such a decision is dictated by the desire to reduce dependence on imported energy sources and prevent a sharp rise in electricity prices [4].

In addition, France supports the idea of developing small modular reactors. "We have a decisive advantage - our historical model: we already have nuclear power plants," said Macron, presenting France's development strategy until 2030 at the Elysee Palace [5]. According to the document, 8 billion out of 30 billion euros will be sent to the energy sector, of which 1 billion will be spent on the development of so-called mini-reactors [5].

While Germany is about to completely abandon nuclear power, Poland, which still does not have a single nuclear power plant, has decided to build its first nuclear power plant in November 2022. As reported [6], it will be created on the basis of American AP1000 reactor technology. It is indicated that construction will begin in 2026, and in 2033 the first unit will be put into operation.

The following changes in the German energy industry must take into account the existing system, which has been in place for many decades and cannot be changed in a short time. At the same time, the functioning of the energy industry must follow the imperative of decarbonization and high efficiency. Taking this into account, it is possible to propose the following development model in the most general terms, which needs to be divided into phases of the immediate and distant perspective.

The directions of energy development in Germany should be divided into measures of the near future and measures of a later perspective.

Directions of development for the nearest future.

1. Thermal power plants on brown coal. Lignite is found in very large quantities in the bowels of the country and has historically been mined using high- performance equipment. Thus, the existing capacities of mining and thermal stations, logistical advantages and low cost of lignite with noticeable disadvantages determined its significant specific weight in the energy industry. Existing brown coal thermal power plants need to be maintained, modernized and reconstructed.

2. Nuclear power plants. It is recommended to continue the operation of the nuclear plants already existing in the country, which will require a change in legislation and extensive outreach work in German society.

3. Thermal stations on natural gas. The operation of such relatively efficient stations for the use of liquefied gas and hydrogen should be supported.

4. Thermal stations on hard coal. In this case, imported raw materials are used, which creates logistical problems and increases the cost. Such stations should exist for some time, until they are replaced by more progressive ones.

5. Solar power plants. In 2021, 10% of electricity was produced with the help of such stations. Solar power plants meet the imperative of decarbonization and must be expanded to the greatest extent.

6. Wind power stations. In 2021, 23% of electricity was produced with the help of such stations. They have a higher utilization rate of installed capacity than solar ones. To the greatest extent, they correspond to the imperative of decarbonization and they must be expanded as actively as possible.

In the longer term, the development of Germany's energy industry will fully meet the imperative of decarbonization. The basis of it can be the following types of stations.

1. Thermal power plants on water. Hydrogen will be produced in places of excess electricity and delivered to Germany mainly in liquefied form by sea.

2. Solar power plants. They will play one of the most important roles in energy, second only to wind power.

3. Wind power stations. Such stations will become the main ones in world energy. Most of them will probably be located in the seas, from where the energy will be transferred to places of consumption.

4. Nuclear power plants. Mostly small modular reactors. The issue requires public approval and legislative changes.

It seems to be extremely important, which will determine success, to thoroughly inform the broad circles of the German public about rational measures that correspond to the complexity of the current situation of the country's energy development.

Germany has recently, in cooperation with other countries, taken energetic steps towards the development of more effective global "green energy". Following the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Canada at the end of August 2022, an agreement was signed to start the export of hydrogen from Canada to Germany from 2025 [7]. In Canada, the hydrogen will be produced by wind farms on the island of Newfoundland, in the Atlantic, which has windy weather and many hills that favor efficient energy production. According to the same reports [7], Canada is also able to supply liquefied natural gas. Six floating terminals for receiving LNG, which are being built in German seaports, were also designed for hydrogen from the very beginning, which opens up a wide range of opportunities for obtaining ecological fuels.

According to Deutsche Welle [8], in September 2022, the energy ministers of the European Union members Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, France and Sweden, as well as Norway, agreed on an extremely large-scale investment plan, which provides for the joint construction and further use of wind farms. He assumes that already in 2030, their capacity in the North Sea (Table 2) will increase 4 times - to 76 GW, by 2040 it will be 138 GW, and by 2050, when the European Union wants to achieve climate neutrality, it should reach 260 GW

As further reported by Deutsche Welle [8], even earlier, at the end of August 2022, in Copenhagen, high representatives of the coastal countries of the Baltic Sea, namely: Germany, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Sweden and Estonia, reached an agreement by 2030 to increase the available capacities of offshore wind power plants by 7 times and bring them up to (Table 2) 20 GW. By 2050, this indicator should increase to 93 GW.

Table 2

Conclusions

Thus, the analysis of the functioning of the energy industry in Germany in combination with the dominant global trends, existing problems and contradictions, as well as key elements of the proposed model of its development allowed to establish the following.

Currently, the main part of the country's electricity is produced with the help of wind, lignite thermal, solar, nuclear plants, as well as natural gas and hard coal plants. The production of energy using lignite, despite all the disadvantages of this type of fuel, relies on large deposits that are developed inside the country in an efficient open way with the help of high-performance equipment, which eliminates the import of this raw material and many logistical problems, and may be acceptable for some perspective.

Germany envisages abandoning the use of nuclear energy, which is markedly different from the existing practice and plans for changes in the energy sector of the world's leading countries.

A model of the development of the electricity industry of the Federal Republic of Germany is proposed, calculated for the near and distant perspective, the basis of which will be the use of wind and solar energy, ecological hydrogen within the framework of the imperative of decarbonization.

The key element of the energy industry of Germany and Northern Europe will be giant wind farms being built in the North and Baltic Seas as part of international cooperation projects, the total capacity of which may reach 353 GW by 2050.

Achieving the goals of climate protection on the planet requires close attention to this most important problem, scientific research, adoption of appropriate management decisions, and their consistent implementation in the interests of all humanity.