Source: compiled by the authors

The effectiveness and sustainability of a business are significantly influenced by the speed of its response to changes in the external environment and the quality of strategic management decision-making [7]. In this context, a crucial managerial task is to adapt internal processes, including strategic planning, to the uncertainties present in both the internal and external environment.

A managerial decision can be described as a structured management method by which the company's management can directly influence various aspects of the company's operation by choosing among alternative options. This decision arises when choosing the best alternative and reflects the results of management activities, becoming a kind of result of these actions. It reflects conclusions, considerations, discussions, etc. aimed at achieving management goals, where the decision is described as a conclusion made after a comprehensive analysis of the situation and forecasting events [4]. According to scientists, a management decision is a consequence of the use of various formalised management methods in economic, technological, socio-psychological and administrative aspects [3]. Strategic decisions, in turn, are one of the categories of management decisions that have a significant impact on all aspects of the enterprise's functioning as a whole, such as its competitive position, customer relations, product range, market strategies and macro environment [4]. The formulation of any management decisions, including strategic ones, requires the use of an adequate information base and effective analytical methods. This allows managers to formulate conclusions and forecasts on the development of the industry with great accuracy and provide the necessary information for making decisions on the choice of the strategic course of the business structure.

In the context of the systemic approach, an enterprise is viewed as an open system, and management decisions are formed on the basis of analysing information coming from the internal and external environment. Since in modern conditions enterprises operate in a changing and unstable environment, one of the key tasks is to create information flows to maintain and improve the efficiency of the enterprise management system in conditions of uncertainty and instability of the external environment and economic uncertainty [1].

Ensuring the sustainable development of business entities is intricately linked to the development and implementation of strategic management decisions. These decisions are marked by a high level of uncertainty owing to their long-term time horizon and the substantial impact of their consequences on the enterprise's goals. In such scenarios, the primary objectives of management include minimizing the likelihood of negative events and sidestepping adverse consequences and risks, particularly those of a strategic nature.

Summarizing the perspectives of earlier authors [2], it becomes evident that there exists an inherent necessity to establish a methodological approach for the development of strategic decisions. This approach should be grounded in contemporary information, particularly in the selection of enterprise strategy contingent upon the prevailing level of uncertainty.

Uncertainty, in our opinion, can be divided into the following levels: a fairly accurately predicted future, alternative future options, a range of possible future options, and complete uncertainty.

Let us dwell in more detail on the definition of information necessary for making decisions on the choice of strategy in accordance with each of the presented levels of uncertainty.

The first level is a fairly accurately predictable future. At this level, residual uncertainty does not play an important role in strategic decision-making. Managers only need to develop one forecast that has the required degree of accuracy and will serve as the basis for corporate strategy. A standard set of methods and information is used to prepare it: market research, analysis of competitors' activities (primarily their cost structures and production capacities), value chain studies, Michael Porter's five forces model, etc. The discounted cash flow model built on the basis of this forecast can then be used to evaluate alternative options for possible strategies. The second level is alternative futures. In this case, the future is described as one of a number of separate scenarios. Analytical methods are not able to predict which one will come to pass, but they can help determine the probability of a particular scenario. The most important thing is that some (if not all) elements of the strategy may change if the outcome is predictable.

In this context, managers are required to develop multiple distinct scenarios, each grounded in a specific scenario linked to the essential factors of residual uncertainty. Various models may be necessary to assess different scenarios, tailored to perform specific tasks:

- gathering information to help determine the degree of probability of a particular outcome;

- selecting appropriate models and determining probabilities, while not prohibiting the use of the classical analysis scheme to assess the risk and return inherent in potential alternative strategies;

- studying the directions in which the industry will develop in different cases -- this will allow you to understand which market signals need to be monitored especially carefully.

At the third level, the focus is on the range of possible future options. This range is shaped by key variables, and the actual outcome can fall anywhere within this spectrum. Unlike the second level, there are no discrete scenarios, and, similar to the second level, some or all elements of the strategy may undergo changes, provided the outcome remains predictable. Companies entering new industries or venturing into new regional markets often encounter third-level uncertainty.

To navigate third-level uncertainty, it is essential to: conduct analyses akin to those employed at the second level; delineate various scenarios outlining alternative future options; and closely monitor market signals to discern the direction in which each option is heading.

It's important to acknowledge that developing clear and meaningful scenarios at this level of uncertainty can be quite challenging. “Natural” discrete scenarios that describe the two extreme points of the range are easy to create, but they are not often used to select a specific strategic decision. Finding starting points within the range that will become the basis for deploying alternative scenarios is a real art. There are general rules for this: firstly, the number of scenarios to be developed should be limited, as the complexity of “juggling” more than four or five options makes decision-making difficult; secondly, it is necessary to avoid creating unnecessary scenarios whose impact on the choice of strategy is not unique; thirdly, a set of scenarios should be compiled that gives a fairly plausible range of outcomes (i.e., it is not necessary to strive to describe the entire range). Such a set of options will allow managers to assess the degree of sustainability of existing strategies, identify candidates for winners and outsiders among market participants, and determine the risk of implementing a strategy aimed at maintaining the status quo.

The fourth level represents complete unpredictability. At this level, uncertainty is so multifaceted that predicting any characteristics of the relevant environment becomes virtually impossible. It is challenging to determine individual scenarios, the range of possible outcomes, or the variables influencing the future (which may sometimes even be undetectable). While situations characterized by fourth-level uncertainty are infrequent and tend to evolve towards one of the first three levels over time, they do exist. A more complete description of strategic decisions and strategies according to the level of uncertainty is presented in Table 3.

Table 3 Types of strategies according to the level of uncertainty

Source: compiled by the authors on the basis of [2]

Situation analysis at the fourth level is predominantly qualitative rather than quantitative. At the same time, it is necessary to avoid the intuitive approach that scientists sometimes suggest as opposed to the rational one. On the contrary, managers should systematise both the data they know and the data that can be obtained in principle. Even if the analysis of the aggregate information does not allow for a meaningful forecast of possible (not to mention probable) options, managers will still get a general idea of the future. They will be able to identify a certain subset of variables that determine the main direction of market development, as well as some indicators that can signal positive or negative changes in these variables.

Guided by such indicators, managers will track the evolution of the market and modify the existing strategy as additional information becomes available. In addition, they will be able to identify trends in further market development through the following actions: studying the history of markets under fourth-level uncertainty, identifying the key characteristics of winners and losers in such situations, and clarifying the specifics of the strategies they use.

In conclusion, while quantifying the risk and return associated with different strategic options may not always be feasible, managers should still possess a broad understanding of reliable information in the strategic decision-making process. The validity of this perspective can be gauged through the use of leading market indicators and the analysis of analogous situations.

One of the principal priorities for the development of business entities is long-term strategic planning based on the concept of strategic intentions. This approach allows for the consideration and mitigation of potential risks and the timely prevention of impending threats. The key takeaway is that information support is a crucial element in selecting a business development strategy. Given the complexity and uncertainty of today's business environment, characterized by rapid changes, effective information support empowers businesses to make well-informed strategic decisions.

Information management encompasses the collection, analysis, and interpretation of various data about the external and internal environment of an enterprise [6]. This includes information about markets, competitors, customers, technologies, and more. Such information enables the company's management to objectively assess the current situation and predict future trends.

Drawing insights from information analysis, an enterprise can formulate strategies aligned with its current needs and capabilities. Furthermore, information support proves instrumental in recognizing both competitive advantages and disadvantages. This understanding enables the company to devise strategies aimed at attaining and fortifying competitive edges. It is noteworthy that the process of making strategic decisions in entrepreneurial activities is intricate and dynamic, with its nature significantly influenced by the level of uncertainty regarding the future. Throughout various stages of this complex process, information support plays a pivotal role.

At the first level, when the future can be predicted reasonably accurately, the information base allows for the development of one main forecast. The use of standard methods and analysis of standard data, such as market research, competitor analysis, and others, is a typical approach at this level. The second level involves alternative future scenarios. In this context, the information helps to determine the probability of different options and to develop a strategy that is consistent with these possible scenarios. At the third level, the range of possible futures is determined. This requires identifying key variables and monitoring market signals that indicate developments. Analyses similar to the second level are also applicable, but the range of possible outcomes is additionally taken into account. The fourth level is characterised by the complete unpredictability of the future, where the characteristics of the environment are almost impossible to predict. In this context, the analysis becomes mainly qualitative and requires systematisation of existing information, as well as identification of indicators and trends to monitor the situation.

Conclusion

A study of the information market in Ukraine has unveiled significant potential for bolstering strategic decision-making in business. The continual updating and modernization of information systems prove instrumental in more effectively analyzing market conditions and determining strategic development directions. A systematic approach to the stages of choosing a company's development strategy, encompassing in-depth analysis of the external and internal environment, identification of key goals, and selection of optimal ways to achieve them, is deemed critical.

The agility of a business in responding to changes in market conditions is pivotal for enhancing flexibility and adaptability, where effective information support plays a crucial role. The quality of management decisions is heavily contingent on the level and quality of information, with prompt data collection and analysis ensuring more informed and effective decision-making.

Information support is also integral to ensuring the sustainable development of enterprises, aiding in their adaptation to changing economic conditions and securing long-term competitiveness. An analysis of risks and profitability based on quality data facilitates a more accurate assessment of potential benefits and threats to the business, contributing to more informed strategic decisions.

Hence, the appropriate storage, analysis, and utilization of information emerge as crucial prerequisites for making strategic decisions across various levels of future uncertainty. Organizations equipped with these skills and capabilities stand to have more opportunities for successful development in the contemporary business environment.

Consequently, information support for selecting a business development strategy stands out as a key factor in attaining success in the modern business landscape. Companies that demonstrate proficiency in collecting, analyzing, and judiciously utilizing information enjoy a distinct advantage in formulating and executing effective development strategies. This capability not only enhances decision-making but also positions organizations to navigate the complexities of the business environment with agility and foresight, contributing to long-term success and competitiveness.

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