Review and analytical document of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources

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Review and analytical document of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources

Volodymyr Y. Filippov, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor Odesa Polytechnic National University

Studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources is an exceptionally important task, as this pandemic has created a range of challenges and consequences for labour resources and the labour market. It is crucial to understand this from an economic, social, and strategic planning perspective. Moreover, these changes have a global nature, so researching the pandemic's impact helps develop international strategies and policies to overcome the crisis and prepare for future challenges.

Researching the pandemic's impact on labour resources helps identify the most vulnerable groups of workers and determine the necessary measures for their protection and support. Understanding the changes in the labour market also helps companies and governments adapt to new conditions and develop strategies to support workers and promote economic recovery.

This research provides essential information for the development of adaptation strategies for the new conditions and the formation of future work approaches that take into account contemporary realities and opportunities. Thus, it helps not only in understanding the past but also in preparing for the future in the face of constant change and uncertainty. Additionally, studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources helps identify trends emerging in the modern work environment, such as the increase in remote work, changes in personnel management approaches, and the use of technology in work, which have become significant factors during the pandemic.

The purpose of this research is an analytical review of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources and the labour market to identify significant aspects, including economic, social, organizational, and global dimensions.

The objectives of the research include analyzing economic consequences, identifying social repercussions, examining strategies of businesses and governments, assessing the impact on the work environment, and considering global aspects. This research will help us better understand the consequences of the pandemic and develop strategies to overcome these challenges, even during martial law.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various aspects of the economy and management, including personnel management, risk management in digital transformation, risk management system efficiency, and the labour market in Ukraine, has been studied by numerous scholars. Authors such as O. Bazelyuk [1], S. Bodnar [2], V. Homotyuk, Y. Dudnyk, G. Zhosan [3], R. Zvarych, N. Kyrychenko, and M.O. Perevozna [4], K.M. Pontus, and Y. Salo have investigated the consequences of the pandemic and adaptation strategies in changing conditions, contributing to research on the impact of COVID-19 and other aspects on the field of economics and management.

To a large extent, researchers note that the COVID-19 pandemic effectively demands constant refinement of strategies and approaches from businesses and managers. It inspires the search for new ways of employment, the utilization of digital technologies, and the development of more flexible work models.

With the passage of time and the addition of other factors of uncertainty, the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is shifting from its role as the primary influencer of labour resources to one that has created protective conditions for entrepreneurs facing new challenges. As a result of this situation, new opportunities are emerging for entrepreneurs who are willing to embrace challenges and seek innovative adaptation pathways to change.

In December 2019, the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus marked the beginning of an extraordinarily important episode in world history. In just two short months, this pandemic, which began in China, gained international recognition as an extraordinary situation threatening the entire global community. At the start of 2020, Ukraine confirmed its first officially documented cases of the disease, and on March 25, a state of martial law was declared throughout the country due to the active spread of the virus. This reaction by the Ukrainian government was aimed at protecting the population from health and life threats. It was during this period that the UN Department of Global Communications issued a call to governments worldwide to mitigate the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources and the labour market [5]. According to the findings of a research study published by the International Labour Organization in early March 2020, the crisis in the economy and labour market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a global increase in unemployment by nearly 25 million individuals. This entails not only job losses but also significant economic hardships for individuals. According to the estimations of the authors of this study, income losses for workers by the end of 2020 could range from a staggering $860 billion to $3.4 trillion USD. This could lead to a reduction in the consumption of goods and services, which, in turn, will impact the economic prospects of businesses and entire countries [6].

In light of these events, decisions aimed at protecting and assisting citizens were taken in Ukraine. These actions also involved the management of labour resources and the labour market. However, to determine their effectiveness, a more in-depth and comprehensive scientific study is required.

In 2020, the world found itself on a path of global change due to COVID-19. One of the key areas affected by this impact was labour resources. Ukraine was not immune to this influence. When examining the dynamics of the situation during the coronavirus crisis in Ukraine, several major changes in the labour market can be observed.

First and foremost, it is essential to note the negative direct consequences of COVID-19 on labour resources, primarily temporary loss of work capacity among the employed population in case of illness in moderate and severe forms, as well as the subsequent rehabilitation process, which is accompanied by reduced work capacity. This is particularly evident in the statistics of infected, ill, and deceased individuals in Ukraine, which can be found in Figure 1.

For the first time in Ukraine, COVID-19, a new type of infection, was detected on March 3, 2020, in Chernivtsi. On March 13, the first fatal case caused by coronavirus infection became known. As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine had recorded over 5,550,000 cases of the disease, with more than 110,000 fatalities.



Figure 1. Aggregated chart for all categories of infected

The distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine by age groups appears as follows. The smallest number of confirmed cases is observed in the age group from 0 to 17 years, comprising 5.00%. The group aged 18 to 29 years accounts for 11.00% of the total cases. It is important to note that the infection had the most significant impact on individuals aged 30 to 49 years, making up a substantial portion at 37.00%. The group aged 50 to 69 years is also substantial, constituting 38.00% of the total cases. Finally, the group of individuals aged 70 years and older accounts for 9.00% of the total confirmed cases. This distribution demonstrates the age-related dynamics of COVID-19's impact on the population of Ukraine during the pandemic.

The distribution of COVID-19 infected individuals in Ukraine by gender shows the following pattern: women make up the majority, namely 60.0%, while men constitute the remainder - 40.0% of the total number of infected individuals. This statistic reflects the difference in vulnerability to COVID-19 between genders in Ukraine. It may also indicate variations in the adherence to preventive measures or influence risk factors for both genders (Fig. 2).



Figure 2. Confirmed cases by age group for the year 2023

Regarding the distribution by gender, it is essential to investigate the reasons for this difference in vulnerability between men and women to COVID-19. This may include socio-cultural factors, variations in employment, and levels of exposure to infection. Researching these factors can help develop more effective strategies to protect both genders from infection and overcome the pandemic.

From the provided statistics, it is evident that the number of infected individuals in Ukraine is rapidly increasing, and the number of currently ill individuals significantly fluctuates over time, depending on the waves of the disease (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Total infected by regions of Ukraine in the 3rd quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, the dynamics of fatalities also indicate systematic growth. It's important to consider that statistics may contain significant inaccuracies and may not always accurately reflect the real situation. These inaccuracies can be caused by inadequate testing, underreporting of cases, or even attempts to embellish the situation. Therefore, when analyzing data, one should exercise caution and be critical. It's important to consider that statistics may contain significant inaccuracies and may not always accurately reflect the real situation. These inaccuracies can be caused by inadequate testing, underreporting of cases, or even attempts to embellish the situation. Therefore, when analyzing data, one should exercise caution and be critical.

The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant increase in unemployment and reduced activity in the labour market. According to the data presented in Figure 4, you can observe the dynamics of the unemployment rate in Ukraine. In 2020, there was a significant rise in unemployment, and in a short period, the rate reached levels last seen in 2017. However, this increase did not stop, and in the first quarter of 2021, unemployment rose by another 1%, reaching a level of 10.9%. A similar level of unemployment in Ukraine was last observed in 2000-2002. It's worth noting that the largest increase in unemployment occurred among young people aged 20 to 29, who already had the highest unemployment rate among other age groups before the crisis. Similar trends of increasing youth unemployment were observed in other countries, such as the European Union.

Figure 4. Dynamics of the Unemployment Rate in Ukraine for the Period 2014-2022. (Source: Compiled from data [4])

This phenomenon can be attributed to a reduction in the number of employed individuals.

Examining the dynamics of the labour market in the context of the events that took place in 2022, we cannot ignore the significant impact of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This complex situation had serious consequences for the country's economy and labour market.

The most significant impacts of the crisis in Ukraine were evident in the following sectors:

1) Tourism, which practically came to a halt due to border closures and restrictions on international travel. The prospects for the recovery of this industry remain uncertain, and it is currently believed that it can only rebound with the development of domestic tourism.

2) Restaurants and cafes faced full or partial bans on their operations.

3) The entertainment industry, including mass events, sports, and recreational establishments, also became subject to restrictions and ceased their operations.

4) The transportation sector experienced a significant decrease in passenger transportation volumes, both internationally and domestically.

5) Retail trade of non-food goods and services faced difficulties due to restrictions and changes in consumer demand [6].

These factors together created a challenging situation in the labour market, impacting the lives of employees and employers in the mentioned sectors. Many people lost their jobs or became dependent on additional restrictions and labour market instability. The affected sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic, along with potential solutions, are outlined in Table 1.

Table 1. Sectors Affected During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Sector	Challenges During the Pandemic	Solutions
Tourism	- suspension of travel; - hotel and restaurant closures.	- development of domestic tourism; - marketing campaigns; - attracting local tourists.
Restaurants and Cafes	- reduced customer numbers; - service restrictions.	- food delivery; - outdoor dining; - enhancement of online ordering systems.
Entertainment Industry	- closure of entertainment venues and cinemas; - mass event restrictions.	- creation of virtual entertainment services; - innovative online entertainment formats.
Passenger Transport	- reduced passenger transport; - traffic restrictions.	- - route reorganization; - safety and hygiene measures; - development of transport networks.
Retail Trade	- changes in consumer demand; - store operation restrictions.	- online sales; - implementation of work schedules; - adaptation to new consumer trends.
Entertainment Industry	- postponed or cancelled events and activities.	- virtual events; - webinars; - creation of virtual platforms.

Almost immediately, the entire world began working on solutions to help industries adapt to new conditions and resume their activities after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The development of online commerce became a strategic decision for many companies, allowing them to maintain connections with customers and provide services even during quarantine and population movement restrictions. Opening online stores, developing applications for ordering goods and services remotely, and actively advancing e-commerce helped companies preserve their market presence and even expand their audience.

The growth of delivery services became a key factor for restaurants, supermarkets, pharmacies, and other businesses and organizations. This allowed consumers to receive necessary products and services safely and conveniently. The increased popularity of delivery services also led to the creation of new job opportunities in logistics and courier services.

Online education became essential during the pandemic. Many educational institutions transitioned to remote learning, enabling students to continue their education even during restrictions on traditional lectures and seminars. The development of specialized platforms for online learning and tools for interaction between teachers and students became a crucial direction in the field of education.

These measures helped offset the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy and ensured the viability of businesses and the normal functioning of society during the crisis.

Ukraine managed to maintain an unemployment rate of 10.3% during the pandemic thanks to a comprehensive approach to managing the situation. Government support programs aimed at assisting businesses and preserving jobs played a significant role in this process. These programs included financial assistance to businesses affected by quarantine measures and support for workers who were laid off due to restrictions.

Furthermore, diversification of labour markets in Ukraine played a crucial role in preserving jobs. Various economic sectors such as information technology, the agro-industrial complex, and export-oriented industries remained more resilient during the pandemic, providing many people with the opportunity to find or retain employment in these sectors. Thus, labour market diversity and proactive government actions helped maintain the unemployment rate at an acceptable level during the pandemic.

During the pandemic, Ukrainian laws and legislative acts were actively improved to help manage the situation and preserve jobs. These included:

- The Law of Ukraine "On State Aid to Families with Children". This law provided support to families with children facing financial difficulties due to the pandemic. Changes to the law included increasing the assistance for families with children during the pandemic and financial instability and the implementation of programs and projects to support families facing challenging circumstances due to COVID-19.

- The Law of Ukraine "On State Regulation of the Labour Market". This law contains provisions for state regulation of the labour market during times of crisis and financial instability.

- The Law of Ukraine "On State Support of Small Business". This law allowed small businesses to receive financial assistance and support during economic difficulties. Changes to the law included increasing the amount of aid and lending to small businesses to ensure their financial stability during the pandemic and introducing special programs and benefits for small businesses that suffered losses due to COVID-19.

- The Law of Ukraine "On the Civil Service". This law includes provisions regarding the organization of work for civil servants and supporting citizens in their job search.

- The Law of Ukraine "On Value Added Tax". Changes to this law allowed businesses to defer the payment of VAT in case of temporary financial difficulties.

- The Law of Ukraine "On Employment of the Population". This law contains provisions for measures to support employment during the pandemic and unemployment. Changes to the law expanded the possibilities of providing assistance to the unemployed and people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic, as well as the introduction of additional programs for vocational training for the unemployed to enhance their competitiveness in the labour market.

- The Law of Ukraine "On the State Program of Economic and Social Development of Ukraine for 2020". This law envisioned the implementation of state programs and projects to support the economy and employment during the pandemic. Changes to the law emphasized the development of programs and projects aimed at overcoming the consequences of the pandemic, preserving jobs, and increasing funding for industries that suffered the most significant losses due to COVID-19.

These laws and other regulatory acts created a legal framework for providing assistance to businesses and citizens who faced difficulties due to the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to the preservation of jobs in Ukraine's labour market.

Not only did government authorities attempt to manage the situation, but Ukrainian entrepreneurs also made significant efforts to support their workforce in light of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They implemented measures such as flexible work schedules and transitioning to remote work to preserve jobs and retain staff. Some companies offered additional social benefits to their employees, including medical insurance and financial support. Another important initiative was providing opportunities for online learning and skill development, which helped workers maintain and enhance their qualifications. Companies also offered psychological support to ensure the well-being of their employees during stressful times. Creating comfortable and safe working conditions became one of the vital initiatives of businesses in response to the pandemic.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukrainian government implemented various social programs and initiatives to support the population. One of these initiatives was social payments. The government provided financial assistance to those facing challenging circumstances due to the pandemic. These payments helped offset some financial losses and provided a basic level of economic security for citizens.

Ukraine also launched a medical program for the vaccination and treatment of COVID-19 for the population. This program included vaccinating citizens to prevent infection and the spread of the virus, as well as providing medical assistance to those who fell ill with COVID-19. Medicines, equipment, and services were provided either free of charge or at a symbolic fee to ensure accessibility for the entire population.

These social and medical programs were crucial in protecting and supporting citizens during the pandemic, promoting health and improving the economic well-being of the population.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine reacted by implementing a series of measures to support the healthcare system and the population. One of the key measures was increasing the number of beds for COVID-19 treatment and creating additional intensive care units. This allowed for the provision of proper medical care to patients.

A massive vaccination campaign against COVID-19 was launched in Ukraine, including vaccinations for employees in various industries. This initiative was a vital element of the strategy to combat the pandemic and achieve herd immunity within the population.

In particular, many businesses actively supported the vaccination of their employees by organizing vaccination centers at the workplace or entering into agreements with medical institutions to vaccinate their staff. This accelerated the vaccination process and reduced the risk of virus spread within the workforce.

Regarding mandatory vaccination for specific professional groups, national authorities and medical experts considered the possibility of introducing compulsory vaccination for certain occupational categories, particularly those at high risk of infection and virus transmission. However, the issue of mandatory vaccination remained a subject of public discussion and debate.

Overall, workplace vaccinations and the potential for mandatory vaccination within specific sectors became important components of Ukraine's strategy to overcome the pandemic and protect citizens' health.

An important aspect of the vaccination strategy in Ukraine was the consideration of the specificities of certain professional groups. In particular, educators and civil servants were recognized as particularly vulnerable groups that needed to be vaccinated to ensure the safety and transparency of their work.

In the field of education, where contact with students is of utmost importance, the vaccination of educational personnel was a high-priority goal. This contributed to reducing the risk of infection in educational institutions and allowed the educational process to continue without significant disruptions.

As for civil servants, particularly those working in the State Employment Service and Social Protection of the Population, their status as bearers of public responsibility for implementing and overseeing social programs and citizen support made vaccination a mandatory part of their professional duties. This helped ensure the effective functioning of the social protection system during the pandemic and protected both the recipients of services and the civil servants themselves from the risk of infection. The vaccination of education and civil service workers became a crucial step in the strategy to overcome the pandemic and preserve the health of Ukraine's population.

Thanks to timely measures, fair social support, effective medical assistance, and support at the enterprise and education levels, Ukraine was able to mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on the labour market. This prevented significant declines in employment and unemployment rates, maintained access to medical care for workers, and sustained the functioning of educational and governmental structures. The optimal combination of vaccination, social benefits, sensible labour market regulation, and responsible entrepreneurship contributed to stabilizing the situation and overcoming the challenges posed to labour resources during the pandemic.

The full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine in 2022 further complicated the situation in the labour market. The already complex situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic received an additional challenge due to the invasion and war. However, the experience gained during the pandemic allowed Ukraine to maintain the situation at a critical level and respond to this new challenge.

Collabourative efforts of the government, medical institutions, enterprises, and citizens, which had already been established during the pandemic, became a crucial resource for overcoming the consequences of the war. This included expanding medical equipment and healthcare services, which helped reduce the impact of military actions on the population. Additionally, enterprises quickly adapted to new working conditions during wartime and introduced work processes to provide employment opportunities for the population.

The experience gained during the pandemic helped Ukraine maintain the situation during the full-scale invasion of Russia in the labour market. Coordination and readiness of national resources were essential factors in overcoming the consequences of the war and maintaining stability in the labour market.

Undoubtedly, the events of 2022 had a significant impact on Ukraine's labour market and require a more detailed examination. The complete or partial cessation of activities in these sectors led to increased unemployment in regions highly dependent on tourism, entertainment, and transportation. This also created problems for individuals who worked in these sectors and lost their jobs due to the situation related to the invasion.

Significant job losses and restrictions in the entertainment and tourism sectors led to a complex social situation. Many people became dependent on additional restrictions and labour market instability. One of the key issues is the need for retraining and finding new employment opportunities. Unemployment and uncertainty about the future have affected the standard of living for many citizens.

To overcome this complex situation, comprehensive measures are needed, including stimulating the development of alternative employment sectors, providing support to the unemployed and employers affected by restrictions, and promoting the country's economic development. It is also important to consider the restoration of passenger transport and other sectors that faced difficulties and ensure the sustainable development of tourism and entertainment.

After the conclusion of 2021 and the lifting of pandemic-related quarantine restrictions in Ukraine, an improvement in the labour market was expected. However, 2022 turned out to be an extremely challenging and unstable year due to geopolitical events. This year brought growing unrest and domestic political turbulence due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Although the military actions on Ukraine's territory had a more significant impact on labour resources than the COVID-19 pandemic, it was the experience gained by employers during the pandemic that helped curb a rapid increase in the unemployment rate.

These studies were conducted by authors united by a common interest in issues related to human resource management, risks, risk analysis, and labour resources in conditions of instability and crisis situations directly associated with their impact on labour resources. The following authors have made significant contributions to researching the impact of factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the military conflict with Russia on the fields of economics, management, and risk management: Bashynska I. [8], Smokvina G., Bondarevska K., Semigina T., Tsykalo Y., Terletska V., Bodenchuk L. [9], Chebanu M., Hbur Z. [10], Horho I. [11], Hranaturov V., Lytovchenko I., Kharichkov S. [12], Derhaliuk B., Duzhak V. [13], Yevtushenko N., Zakharchevska A. [14], Zakharova N. [15], Riazanova N. [16], Siomchenko V., Koneva A. [17], Khromushyna L. [18]. Their research aims to understand and analyze the challenges that arise in contemporary conditions and to develop recommendations for overcoming these challenges and enhancing the resilience of businesses and organizations in Ukraine.

These authors are not only united by their common research theme, but they also employ current methodological and analytical approaches to study economic and management issues. They use methods such as analysis, modeling, research, and data analysis to uncover complex relationships and identify key factors affecting human resource management, risks, and labour resources. Their research is grounded in current publications, data, and statistics, making their work reliable and informative for practitioners and researchers in the fields of management and economics.

In these studies, a significant focus is placed on analyzing the labour market and employment trends. The methods developed by these authors can help better understand and manage the unemployment situation and contribute to the creation of jobs in Ukraine. Moreover, these methods can assist in the development of comprehensive management strategies aimed at improving the efficiency of labour resource utilization, reducing risks, and supporting labour market stability.

According to statistics covering the first quarter of 2022, unemployment continued to decrease, reaching 25.80% compared to the previous year. This increase in unemployment may be directly linked to the increase in domestic instability in the country due to the conflict with Russia. As a result, many citizens lost their jobs or were forced to change their professional areas.

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered the labour market. Due to restrictions and lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the virus, many sectors, such as tourism, restaurants, hotels, entertainment, and others, were severely affected. This led to an overall increase in unemployment and job losses.

Many businesses, in particular, had to reduce their workforce or temporarily close their doors, resulting in an increase in the number of people who lost their jobs. Most jobs in sectors that require personal contact were heavily affected, and working from home and remote work became the norm for many.

Migrants were also affected by the pandemic, as many countries restricted labour migration and closed their borders. This led to a decrease in both migration inflow and outflow of the workforce.

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the labour market, reshaped work approaches, and provided a new impetus for the development of remote work and changes in sectors related to meeting the basic needs of the population and the healthcare sector.

While the country managed to maintain an unemployment rate of 10.3% from 2020 to 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial influence on contemporary labour resources and the labour market as a whole. This impact can be viewed in the context of unfolding events in Ukraine and the world, taking into account the events of 2022 and providing an objective forecast for 2023-2025 and a more subjective one up to 2030.

The COVID-19 pandemic that erupted in 2019 led to a general decrease in labour market activity. Restrictions on activities in many sectors, such as hotels, restaurants, tourism, entertainment, resulted in significant job losses. This situation continued in 2020 as the world focused on recovery and curbing the virus's spread.

In 2021, there was an attempt to restore the labour market; however, the pandemic was not yet over, and restrictions in place not only in Ukraine but worldwide hindered this effort. Many companies continued to operate in limited capacity, and many people continued to work from home. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 introduced unpredictable factors of instability that affected the labour market.

In the years 2023-2025, the labour market is expected to recover against the backdrop of economic growth and a relatively mild fiscal policy. However, the unemployment rate will remain high and may not reach pre-war levels for several more years. It is anticipated that workers who lost their jobs in sectors affected by the pandemic and invasion may find new employment opportunities in other sectors, as well as due to the return of the workforce from abroad. Despite the labour market recovery, it will remain unstable due to imbalances and changes in sectors, population mobility, and other factors.

The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a reminder of how vulnerable labour resources can be and how global situations can impact labour markets in individual countries. The presence of support mechanisms, the development of alternative employment sectors, and the implementation of stable economic policies can help mitigate the consequences of ongoing events.

Over the past few years, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the global labour market, emphasizing its vulnerability and dependence on external and internal factors. Even in the second quarter of 2022, when unemployment slightly decreased, it remained at a high level compared to previous years. This instability of the labour market can be overcome through the availability of support mechanisms, the development of alternative employment sectors, and the implementation of stable economic policies.

In the second quarter of 2022, unemployment slightly decreased to 24.20%, but it remained at a high level compared to previous years. This situation reflects the instability of the labour market due to external and internal factors, which added complexity to job searches and career changes for citizens.

In the third quarter of 2022, unemployment decreased to 22.50%, and in the fourth quarter, it reached a level of 21.10%. This positive decrease indicates a gradual recovery of the labour market, but it should be noted that it still remains higher than before the crisis.

In this extremely challenging situation, it is essential to provide support and promote the development of the labour market, directing efforts towards addressing employment and workforce retraining issues. Such an approach will help reduce the impact of negative factors on the labour market and contribute to the sustainable economic recovery.

Taking into account all the aforementioned aspects and events, it is crucial to note that the situation in the labour market continues to improve in 2023. This year is marked by economic recovery and a gradual decrease in unemployment. After a turbulent period in 2022, during which the country faced complex geopolitical events and instability, 2023 brings a certain level of stability and progress in the labour market. Unemployment rates continue to decrease, signaling positive trends.

As a result of the decline in production volumes in various economic sectors from 6% to 66%, a significant change in the number of employed individuals is expected for specific types of economic activities during the crisis period from 2020 to 2022. In total, this could amount to 1,224,500 people [19]. In the second quarter of 2021, unemployment in Ukraine gradually decreased against the backdrop of economic recovery and increased demand for labour . However, it remained at elevated levels compared to previous years.

The slow decrease in unemployment in Ukraine following the surge can be attributed to several structural reasons on the labour supply side:

- lack of qualifications among people who lost their jobs in one sector to transition to other sectors with increased labour demand;

- unwillingness to retrain or upgrade qualifications and search for jobs in different fields in general;

- limited labour mobility, associated with difficulties in moving to other regions to find new employment, including the costs involved in such relocation, which have become less accessible due to income decreases;

- the coronavirus crisis disproportionately affected various sectors of the economy, resulting in significant sectoral imbalances in the labour market. This imbalance has affected wages and the overall wage dynamics in different sectors. The pandemic's impact was uneven and sector-specific.

Taking these aspects and events into account, it's important to note that the labour market situation is gradually improving in 2023. This year is marked by economic recovery and a gradual reduction in unemployment, despite the ongoing conflict with the aggressor who still occupies parts of the Ukrainian state.

After a turbulent period in 2022, during which the country faced complex geopolitical events and instability, 2023 brought about a certain level of stable progress in the labour market. Unemployment rates continue to decline, indicating positive trends.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), it is projected that by the end of the year, the unemployment rate in Ukraine will decrease to 18.3%, with it standing at around 20% at the end of the first quarter. This suggests that the country's economy is positively influenced by the recovery and growth in various sectors, contributing to an increase in the number of job opportunities.

The Ministry of Economy forecasts a slightly different figure compared to the NBU, suggesting that by the end of 2023, the unemployment rate in Ukraine will decrease to 19%. This creates a positive context for citizens to actively search for employment and realize their labour potential, although the data may vary slightly.

Overall, considering all the challenges and events, Ukraine observes an improvement in the labour market in 2023, contributing to economic recovery and stability in the country. It is anticipated that, in the absence of significant new influences, the labour market will continue to recover from 2023 to 2025, in the context of economic growth and reasonable fiscal policies. The unemployment rate will gradually decrease: in 2023 - to 18.3%, in 2024 - to 16.5%, and in 2025 - to 14.7%. However, this indicator will still be higher than it was before the war.

In addition, the NBU predicts that real wages will start to increase, although this year will be marked by moderate growth (3.7%) due to significant inflation. Nominal wages will increase at a double-digit pace throughout the entire forecast period. These factors will help return the unemployment rate to "pre-war" levels by 2030.

To confirm this data, let's attempt our own forecasting using the approximation method. This is a mathematical approach used to approximate functions or data for the purpose of predicting future values or analyzing and identifying patterns in existing data.

When choosing a method for forecasting the unemployment rate, it's important to consider the nature and properties of the data, as well as the forecasting objective. The best options may include exponential and polynomial smoothing methods, each with its own advantages and disadvantages.

1) Exponential Approximation Method:

- used when the unemployment dynamics show a tendency to grow or decline, and this trend can be described by exponential growth or decline;

- effective for data where more recent observations carry more weight, in other words, more recent data is more relevant;

- well-suited for data with stable changes in growth or decline rates, without significant fluctuations.

2) Polynomial Smoothing:

- used when the unemployment dynamics may be better described by more complex curves, not necessarily exponential;

-can be useful for analyzing data where excessive volatility or an irregular trend is observed;

- allows for modeling more complex dependencies in the data, such as parabolic or cubic relationships.

The choice of method depends on the data's specific characteristics and the requirements for accuracy and model simplicity. It's usually recommended to try both methods and compare their results, taking into account the labour market dynamics and the analysis's specifics.

A comparison between the exponential approximation method and polynomial smoothing for forecasting the unemployment rate, as shown in Table 1, will facilitate data analysis and the discovery of underlying patterns. It will also help identify trends and fluctuations in the data, which are crucial for forecasting and developing management strategies. Additionally, it will allow for a comparison of both methods based on various criteria and the selection of the one that best fits the data's needs and characteristics.

This comparison enables the selection of the optimal method that best fits specific requirements and aids in achieving the desired results in unemployment level analysis and forecasting.

Table 2. Comparative Table between Exponential and Polynomial Method

Comparison Criteria	Exponential Method	Polynomial Method
1) Suitable for stationary data	Yes	Yes
2) Suitable for changing data	Yes	Yes
3) Reflects trends in data	Possible	Yes
4) Accounts for long-term dependencies	Yes	Yes
5) Reflects short-term fluctuations	Possible	Yes
6) Model simplicity	High	Depends on degree
7) Weight of later data	High	Depends on degree
8) Forecast accuracy	Depends on complexity	Depends on complexity
9) Computational workload	Usually lower	Usually higher
10) Model construction time	Usually faster	Usually slower
11) Susceptibility to mismatches	Usually higher	Usually lower
12) System resource consumption	Usually lower	Usually higher
13) Suitable for data with outliers	Possible	Yes
14) Suitable for seasonal changes	Yes	Possible
15) Suitable for many categories	Yes	Possible

Taking into account all the factors mentioned, we will attempt to replicate the provided retrospective data and forecasts using the most suitable approximation methods, namely polynomial and exponential (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Forecast of the Unemployment Rate Change in Ukraine for the Period 2022-2030 Unemployment rate for IV q. 2021 - 10,3%

NBU forecast

When forecasting the change in the unemployment rate in Ukraine for the period 2024-2030 (Fig. 5), two approximation methods were simultaneously used:

- polynomial smoothing. The trend line using this method looks quite reliable, follows the peaks, and already at the second degree of reliability, the R² value is 0.9976;

- exponential approximation. The exponential method is best used when values change rapidly at first and then assume a balanced form. In our case, the data is somewhat evenly distributed. Therefore, when using this method, the trend line has a slightly curved shape, indicating a not entirely linear decrease. However, the reliability level is 0.9867, which is lower than when using the polynomial method.

In reality, both methods yield almost the same results, with the R² value close to 1 in both cases. Therefore, in the absence of more significant external factors than currently exist, the unemployment rate situation could return to the "pre-war" level in the range from the mid-2027 to 2030.

Therefore, the forecasted recovery of the unemployment rate in Ukraine to the levels of 2021 is projected to extend until 2030 and may pose a series of potential threats and challenges for the country. This could lead to:

- economic instability, as high unemployment rates restrict citizens' access to stable sources of income, potentially resulting in reduced consumer activity and decreased production;

- social tensions in society, as unemployed citizens may become active participants in mass protests and demonstrations, demanding social support and improvements in living conditions;

- population migration in search of work opportunities in other countries, potentially leading to a loss of skilled workers and demographic decline in Ukraine;

- significant expenditures on social support for the unemployed and other social programs aimed at improving the situation, which may result in budgetary pressures and increased national debt;

- an impact on overall economic growth processes, potentially leading to decreased production and sectoral imbalances.

The recovery of the unemployment rate to previous levels may require careful management and the implementation of necessary measures to ensure stability and economic growth in Ukraine.

The government is already taking the first steps to overcome these problems as it actively prepares the Ukraine Plan within the framework of the Ukraine Facility program of the European Union. An important aspect of this program is social dialogue, the prospects for labour law reform, and support from Western partners in adapting domestic legislation to modern conditions. In accordance with this, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that in 2023, inflation in Ukraine will slow down to 14.8%, to 9.6% the following year, and to 6% in 2025. The Ukrainian government has set a goal to reach the average wage level of our neighbors, such as Poland or Slovakia, by 2030.

According to the European Business Association, the majority of companies plan to increase wages in 2024, as over half of them feel a shortage of staff [22]. The majority of companies, specifically 65% of those surveyed, plan to open vacancies in 2024. According to their data, over 80% of businesses do not plan to reduce staff numbers because the main trends during martial law and the aftermath of the pandemic regarding labour resources, as well as the planned changes in the context of wage increases/cuts for 2024, attitudes towards remote work, and the companies' plans regarding employees abroad, etc.

In 2023, companies underwent the following personnel changes:

- 76% increased the wages of their employees;

- 51% expanded functionality and made new hires;

- 21% froze budgets for development and employee training;

- 8% reduced the number of employees;

- 4% froze bonuses and incentive payments;

- Only 1.5% reduced the wages of their employees.

At the same time, companies continue to show support for their employees, understanding that people are the heart of their business. Nearly all enterprises pay their employees in full (97%), the majority also provide bonuses and incentives (85%), half offer psychological support to their employees (53%), and nearly half organize educational courses for them (47%).

The majority of businesses plan to expand their workforce in the coming year. It's worth noting that 65% of companies plan to open vacancies in 2024. Over 80% of companies do not consider reducing staff numbers (although a 5% reduction is possible).

93% of the survey participants confirmed that their companies plan to increase wage levels in 2024. Furthermore, 29% of HR professionals indicated that their companies plan to raise salaries by 10-15%, 12% by 510%, 10% by 15-20%, while only 2% of respondents mentioned that salaries could increase by more than 20%. Regarding salaries in 2023, 47% of companies increased their remuneration by 10-15%, 26% increased by 15-20%, 8% increased by more than 20%, and another 8% increased by less than 10%.

Regarding remote work, the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequences of the conflict have taught 61% of participants that they have the option to work remotely (28% note that this option is available to all employees), while 11% do not have this option. The categories of employees in broad sectors who do not have the option to work remotely are presented and in narrow sectors in Table 2.

There is a significant number of categories of workers in various industries who do not have the opportunity to work remotely for various reasons. These reasons include the need for physical presence to perform specific tasks, interaction with clients, participation in critical managerial decisions, responsibilities related to security, protection, logistics, technical support, and more.

The data from Table 3 underscores the importance of physical presence for employees in many fields of activity and demonstrates that remote work is not a one-size-fits-all solution for all categories of workers.

Table 3 Categories of employees who do not have the option to work remotely

Category of Employees	Reason for the Inability to Work Remotely
broad-focused industries.	Warehouse, Manufacturing, Retail Employees	- physical presence is required to work with goods; - assembly, disassembly, equipment maintenance and repair; - inspections and goods checks, and more. - customer service and product handling (stores); - necessity of on-site presence.
-	Technical and Administrative Staff	- physical presence is needed for routine tasks (cleaning staff for premises cleaning, etc.); - safety, site security, logistics (security guards, drivers). - organizational tasks (office managers); - office maintenance (secretaries); -coordination of activities.
	Managers and Top Executives	- decision-making at a managerial level; - leadership responsibilities; - official confirmation of agreements and decisions; - signing documents and contracts; - importance of personal presence at meetings and gatherings.
-	Sales Managers (Customer Service)	- meetings and negotiations with clients; - selling goods and services in physical locations; - interacting with customers; - on-site work to address customer inquiries.
Narrow-focused industries	Logistics Sector	- control and organization of logistics processes; - the necessity and importance of physical participation.
-	Mechanics and Receiving Master Craftsmen	- repair and maintenance (automobiles, household appliances); - inspection of equipment that requires physical presence.
-	Banking Specialists	- financial operations (cashiers); - security of financial operations (cash collection); - the need for physical service (branches).
-	Medical Workers and Laboratory Stastateff	- medical procedures and diagnostics; - the impossibility of remote medical assistance.
-	Legal Professionals in Judicial and Criminal Practice	- legal consultation; - participation in legal proceedings; - meetings with clients.
-	IT Specialists and HR Managers	- technical support; - personnel management processes; gatherings and interviews in the office.

For some professions, the necessity of physical presence is an integral part of their job. As a result, employers and organizations should consider an individualized approach to the possibility of remote work and take into account the specific nature of tasks performed by their employees.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour resources is determined not only by the pandemic itself but also by state regulation and military aspects. The pandemic has brought significant changes to the labour market, such as the shift to remote work, changes in the requirements for organizing work processes, and an increased focus on ensuring the safety of workers.

The state influences the labour market through its policies and regulatory measures, such as the regulation of military conscripts, which may require employers to maintain electronic registries. These changes can simplify administrative burdens for employers and facilitate their work.

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