Риски изменения стоимости телекоммуникационных компаний

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Риски изменения стоимости телекоммуникационных компаний

Курилова Анастасия Александровна

Тольяттинский государственный университет

доктор экономических наук, доцент кафедры «Финансы и кредит»

Аннотация

В процессе исследования был использован диалектический подход к познанию явлений, позволяющий проанализировать риски изменения стоимости российских телекоммуникационных компаний. Также в работе применялись общенаучные методы исследования (диалектика, анализ, синтез, системность, комплексность), так и другие специальные приемы и процедуры. Как известно, увеличение стоимости является основной стратегической целью многих крупных компаний, в том числе и телекоммуникационных. Практика финансово-хозяйственной деятельности российских телекоммуникационных компаний показывает что под влиянием негативных факторов - колебаний валютных курсов, коррекций на финансовых рынках стоимость телекоммуникационных компаний может меняться. При этом в интересах миноритарных и мажоритарных акционеров Среди рисков российских телекоммуникационных компаний необходимо выделить две группы. К первой группе необходимо отнести страновые риски, способные воздействовать на стоимость компаний телекоммуникационного сектора. Среди них можно выделить удешевление рубля по отношению к доллару, происходящего на фоне падения цен на нефть. Кроме того, общая макроэкономическая и политическая ситуации приводит к появлению дополнительных рисков, в виде различных санкций и ограничений. Следует отметить понижение суверенного кредитного рейтинга РФ, в том числе, из-за политических отношений с Украиной. Ко второй группе можно отнести риски неполучения лицензий на деятельность в ближайшие годы, удорожание импортного оборудования и материалов от поставщиков, возрастающая конкуренция и сотрудничество конкурентов друг с другом, возрастающее проникновение конкурентов на телекоммуникационный рынок, а также вероятное осложнение строительства новых линий связи с 2016 года. стоимость валютный финансовый рынок

Ключевые слова: акционерное общество, категории рисков, контроль, оценка рисков, показатель рентабельности активов, предприятия телекоммуникационной отрасли, риски оперативной деятельности, рыночная стоимость., стоимость привлечения заемного капитала, страновые риски, телекоммуникационная отрасль, управлении стоимостью капитала, фундаментальная стоимость

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RISKS OF CHANGES IN THE VALUE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES

Kurilova Anastasia Alexandrovna

Togliatti State University

doctor of economic sciences, associate professor of the department

Abstract

In the process study used the dialectical approach to cognition of phenomena, allowing to analyze the risk of changes in value of the Russian telecommunication companies. Also the paper used General scientific methods (dialectic, analysis, synthesis, consistency, complexity), and other special techniques and procedures. As you know, the increased cost is the major strategic goal of many large companies, including telecommunications. The practice of financial and economic activities of Russian telecommunication companies shows that under the influence of negative factors - currency fluctuations, adjustments in the financial markets value telecommunications companies may vary. In the interests of minority and majority shareholders Among the risks of the Russian telecommunication companies need to allocate two groups. The first group should include country-specific risks that can affect the value of companies in the telecommunications sector. Among them are the cheapening of the ruble against the dollar, against the backdrop of falling oil prices. In addition, the overall macroeconomic and political situation leads to additional risks in the form of various sanctions and restrictions. It should be noted the downgrade of the sovereign credit rating of the Russian Federation, including due to political relations with Ukraine. The second group includes the risks of failure to receive licenses in the coming years, the rise in the cost of imported equipment and materials from suppliers, increasing competition and cooperation are competitors with each other, increasing the penetration of competitors in the telecommunications market, as well as probable complication of the construction of new lines in 2016.

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Рубрика: 08.00.00 ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ

As you know, the increased cost is the major strategic goal of many large companies, including telecommunications. To get a deeper understanding of the strategies of OJSC “MegaFon”, “VympelCom” and MTS, consider their characteristics in the annual reports of these companies in 2015 [1, p.8].

So, joint-stock company “MegaFon” stresses the importance of ensuring the needs of its customers, especially digital subscribers. In addition, the great attention the company pays to the development of additional services and innovative products. Also in the list of the strategic objectives of OJSC “MegaFon” is the construction and modernisation of networks and the realization of benefits in the wide availability of frequency spectrum [2, c.85].

PJSC “VimpelCom” in the short term is focusing on expanding activities for the country as a whole and in the regions. It should be noted that VimpelCom plans to create the most standardized network in the regions and to the economy resulting from growth of business scale. The company stresses the importance of interactions with customers and their needs and is going to improve the quality of service [3, c.390].

If we turn to the strategic priorities of the PJSC “MTS”, which is the industry leader in many financial indicators, it is possible to note the Trinity of these priorities. Thus, the main strategy of the company is called “3D” by which is meant “Data”, “Differentiation” and “Dividends.” In this case, “MTS” pays attention to the development of 3gi LTE networks, diversification of service portfolio, strengthen its competitive position and ensuring high returns for shareholders [4, p.235].

Thus, after a brief review of strategic development of the companies “big three”, it should be noted that, despite certain differences, in this case, there are General trends associated with the industry of telecommunications. While the global purpose of each of the studied companies is the effective management of the cost of capital and thus its growth, thanks to certain factors that will be explored further [5, p.36].

First, refer to various categories of risks inherent in which the telecommunications industry and its companies. Their description can be found in the annual reports of OJSC “MegaFon”, “VimpelCom” and MTS. It should be noted that these categories include three basic types: country, industry and specific risk (specific company). Next, consistently consider these risks for all three companies, identifying, first of all the specific factors that may affect the growth of those companies in the future [6, p.22].

So, first, we analyze country-specific risks that can affect the value of companies in the telecommunications sector. So, we will note the cheapening of the ruble against the dollar, against the backdrop of falling oil prices. In addition, the overall macroeconomic and political situation leads to additional risks in the form of various sanctions and restrictions [7, p.24]. It should also be noted the downgrade of the sovereign credit rating of the Russian Federation, including due to political relations with Ukraine. If you pay attention to neighboring countries, in which study a telecommunications company partially carry out its activities, the country risk, in this case, may be significant in connection with not only political, but also defined the organizational and technical challenges [7, p.25]. Country risk was taken into account in the DCF model in Chapter 2 in risk-free rates, as well as the translation of ruble-denominated revenues and expenses in us dollar (exchange risk management). Now let's look at the possible industry risks [8, p.131].

Among the industry risks in the telecommunications industry are most common: the probability of non-receipt of licenses to operate in the coming years, the rise in the cost of imported equipment and materials from suppliers, increasing competition and cooperation competition with each other, increasing the penetration of the telecommunications market, the classification of information systems and networks to a critical Russian information infrastructure, the possibility of complications construction of new communication lines in 2016 in connection with the new provisions of the law to permit the construction only after the design of the project planning area [9, c.55]. If we turn to the calculations of the cost of capital and the DCF model from the previous chapter, it should be noted that the industry risks were taken into account with the help of beta coefficient and the risk premium [10, c.100]. Turning to the description of the specific risks, we emphasize the special importance of taking into account the category for the detection of possible cost management options PJSC “Megaphone” VimpelCom “and” MTS “and to identify the differences between the market and the fundamental assessment obtained in the second chapter of [11, c.536].

So, by studying the risks inherent to the activities of the company “Megaphone”, we note that in the annual report for the year 2015 were found primarily geopolitical (country) and industry-specific risks [12, p.194]. However, you can attempt to identify several specific risks to the company. So, the Megaphone is trying to maintain its competitive advantage in access to a wide range of radio frequency spectrum. In this regard, the risk of the formation of strategic alliances of competitors they have an aggressive policy is quite high [13, c.151]. In addition, OJSC “MegaFon” can be included in the list of strategically important companies and, thus, is limited in collaboration with banks, except those specified in No. 213-FZ “About the opening of Bank accounts and letters of credit”. Note that these possible risks affect operating profit, the cost of attracting of borrowed capital WACC and the cost of the company, respectively [14, c.7]. However, OJSC “MegaFon” is a steadily growing organisation with good prospects, as shown by calculations carried out by the author above. So in terms of market equity value, the company took a confident first place in contrast to the situation with the fundamental evaluation. This means that the market considers risks inherent to the activities of OJSC “MegaFon” minimum at the moment and appreciates the value of the shares of the company. However, if you look at the estimates obtained using the models of DCF and capital market, the situation is different. You can find an explanation of the calculations of the parameters in the beginning of this Chapter, of which there are some problems in the company's cash position and the respective coefficients characterizing the solvency. The ROA over the years, OJSC “MegaFon” consistently high, which generally characterizes a successful policy of management to create value within the company. Considering the positive values of the index MVA and relatively high values of the coefficient of interest coverage in 2015, as well as a small probability risk, it is possible to draw a conclusion about good prospects of the company on the telecommunications market of the Russian Federation [15, c.71].

If to speak about recommendations to the company management, the author advises to pay attention to further implementation of competitive advantages in the market of mobile Internet and data transmission together with the conclusion of advantageous agreements with competitors concerning network development and capital investments as preventive measures covering the risks described above. Now, having considered the risks and features of certain cost factors characteristic to the company “MegaFon” will move on to a detailed study of OJSC “VimpelCom” [16, p.481].

The report for 2015 at the Joint Stock Company “VimpelCom” a variety of specific risks were found. Firstly, the difficult situation in some countries of the CIS and South-East Asia, linked to social instability and difficult economic conditions may affect the nationalization or expropriation of foreign property in the future. Especially above the risk is related to the economic and social problems in Ukraine. Secondly, in PJSC “VimpelCom” there are difficulties with the development and maintenance of infrastructure in the countries of presence. Third, the company said in a statement indicates a certain technological risks associated with the spread of 4G networks, new technologies, as well as possible failures related to the imperfection of the equipment and IT systems, especially in the CIS countries. And finally, fourth, currently and in the foreseeable future PAT of “VimpelCom” is involved in various legal proceedings, including concerning the taxation and disputes with subscribers. Thus, it can be noted that the company most of the specific risks associated with the activity outside the Russian Federation, as well as technological challenges, and network distribution. Now we try to relate the above risks to specific factors affecting the cost of capital of PJSC “VimpelCom” [17, c.5].

Thus, the risks of problems in the countries of presence can be associated with country risk, which, in turn, determine the cost of raising debt capital and WACC. At the same time, the growth of purchase prices for imported equipment as a result of exchange rate leads to higher costs and, consequently, an increase in depreciation and a decrease in profits. This risk also incorporates the category of country (credit rating), financial (inflation) and specific risks (increase in depreciation and infrastructure issues). In addition to the company in question is necessary to separately highlight the risk of network and new technologies in the regions, which is able to increase the CAPEX and adversely affect the cost of PJSC “VimpelCom”. And the last thing that can be noted - these are additional costs of litigation and taxation, which have a negative impact on cash flows, because the accounting profit before tax is underestimated, and the tax - increases, contributing to an overestimation of the effective tax rate. Next, consider how the described risks and factors could affect the cost calculations and the study of the fundamental differences in the estimates and the market value [18, c.179].

First of all, we recall that at the value obtained by the DCF method of Joint Stock Company “VimpelCom” ahead of other companies in the industry. At the same time two other estimates, reflecting the market value, the entity behind the leader. Thus, we can conclude understating the market value relative to the fundamental value. It should be noted that the company “Megaphone” observed the reverse situation. Now let's examine more closely the specificity of these differences for the PAO “VimpelCom”. Firstly, of the indicators presented in Table 19, it follows that “VimpelCom” in 2015 had problems with the creation of more market value on the basis of its activities. Second, in the table 20 according to the calculations of return on assets is viewed backlog of the company from other market participants, which also points to possible defects management in management decisions. Thirdly, the dynamics of net credit position changes for the PAO “VimpelCom” unstable and points to the “catching up” the principle of development of the company. And finally, fourthly, on the basis of the calculated values of interest coverage ratio and its dynamics over the past few years, the author may conclude that increasing the cost of the company's debt, which confirms the presence of the previously defined specific risks. In the end, explaining the differences in the fundamental and market value of PJSC “VimpelCom”, note taking into account market additional risks underestimate the value of a company's equity. This fundamental value is obtained inflated in mind, first of all, a large turnover abroad (high values of fixed assets and amortization), which covers high (industry) value WACC.Teper select specific recommendations, which the author of this work has to offer for the management of PAO “VimpelCom” [19, c.14].

First and foremost, you have to say about the lagging position of the company in the industry, expressed in various performance indicators and identified risks. In addition, the activities of management to minimise the impact of these risks does not predict a sharp improvement of the position of JSC “VimpelCom” in the telecommunications industry of the Russian Federation. Therefore, the main recommendations are to establish alliances with other companies in the market to reduce additional costs, as well as the continued development of 3gi 4Gв regions while improving the quality of services provided to the clients to achieve stable profit growth. So, above, the author has studied the main risks affecting the value of companies “MegaFon” and “VimpelCom” and the characteristics of the factors determining the values of the cost, and some tips that may be useful for the management of these companies. Now, consider the only remaining company - PJSC “MTS”, which is derived earlier by the author in the work, is a leader in the telecommunications industry of the Russian Federation key indicators [20, c.24].

When studying the report of the company “MTS” has identified the following specific risks. First, OAO AFK Sistema, the major shareholder may make it unprofitable for PJSC “MTS” solutions, without considering the opinions of minority shareholders. Second, for the company “MTS” there is a high probability of possible ships with “Apple” because of the breach of the contract on the purchase of a certain number of smartphones in the framework of cooperation. Thirdly, the presence of specific restrictions imposed by Antimonopoly legislation and on MTS as an operator with significant market advantage (SMP-operator) can also significantly affect the company's operations. Fourth, competition with the company “AltynAsyr” in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan does not allow to realize the possibilities for the development of 4G networks in the country to give full and appropriate limitation on access to the frequency range. And finally, fifth, the risk of increased payment for the radio frequency resources in Ukraine in connection with a corresponding increase in inflation in the country. Thus, it is possible to notice that the specific risks in the report of PJSC “MTS” provide more detail than in the previous situation of the analyzed companies. Now try to relate these risks with the factors affecting the cost of capital joint-stock company “MTS”.

So, first of all, note that the specific risks identified for the company “MTS” are similar to the associated risks of the company “VimpelCom”. Therefore, we try to combine these risks in a more general category, highlighting three key categories: risks related to the company's activities abroad (in the countries of presence), regulatory risks and risks specific to the leading companies in the market. Of the first group we can say that it is related to country risk and is determined primarily on the influence of the credit rating of the company and the cost of raising capital in PJSC “MTS”. The second category of risk, in my opinion, affect the value of such factors as income and ROA. If we talk about the third group, then it can be correlated with WACC factor and the effective tax rate. Now let us turn to the results for the valuation of equity capital of PJSC “MTS” in the second chapter and comparable risks identified discrepancies between fundamental and market value for the company [21, c.165].

If we make the relevant calculations it can be concluded that the market value (according to the method of the capital market and the original) is greater than the fundamental value of PJSC “MTS”. It says, above all, the understated the risks that the market determines with respect to the company in question. A similar situation was observed when the author studied the company “Megaphone”. As a result, it is possible to make an interim conclusion that the market preference shares of these companies and their greater perspective in comparison with the PJSC “VimpelCom”. Now let us turn to the indicators value calculated in this chapter for the company “MTS”, to confirm the above assumption. For example, if you look at the market rate of value added, we can see that its value in PJSC “MTS” is much greater than 0. In addition, the company studied, not only is the leader on this indicator, but also outperforms the competition in magnitude of the current liquidity ratio. At the same time, “MTS” supports competition and other key values, such as interest coverage ratio, return on assets and net credit position. As a result, it can be argued that these indicators and the value of the market value of the company's capital is closely related and market valuation, largely determined on the basis of the historical values of these indicators. However, under-the fundamental value of a company with a certain probability caused by averaging the values of the principal risks and overestimation of the fundamental value of PJSC “VimpelCom”.

Offering recommendations for the management of PJSC “MTS”, we note that the rate of return on assets in recent years significantly reduced and in the long term it is necessary to take measures for the leveling of the country and financial risks (changes in exchange rates and inflation). In addition, allocate regulatory risks and losses associated with the anti-monopoly law, in connection with which the management personnel of the company “MTS” is recommended to achieve greater coefficient term liquidity and interest coverage. These targets can be achieved by good debt financing and the selection of projects for investment, taking into account industry specifics. It is also necessary to take action to prevent the formation of alliances of companies in the industry to maintain a lead and reduce the capacity of these companies to realize their competitive advantages.

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