State support of the dairy industry and prospects for its development in the post-war period

Furthermore, commencing from June 3, 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine took measures to curb inflation by raising the discount rate from 10 to 25 %. This adjustment signifies a lack of access to affordable loans. Consequently, the dairy industry will require a specialized program to bridge this financial gap. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, the direct financial setbacks for agriculture due to the ongoing rnssia's war in Ukraine, as of November 10, 2022, have reached USD 6.6 billion, encompassing losses of USD 362.5 million in the livestock sector. As a result, the indirect repercussions on agriculture as a whole are projected to be around USD 34.25 billion (KSE, 2023).

The impact of war on the level of food security. The state of the milk market undeniably has implications for the overall national food security level. Globally, this aspect is evaluated through the Global Food Security Index (GFSI), which includes evaluations in the following domains: (1) affordability, (2) availability, (3) quality and safety, (4) natural resources and resilience (since 2022, sustainability and adaptation). The deterioration of global food security over the past decade is due primarily to climate change and agricultural intensification, with the conditions being further exacerbated by the impacts of COVID-19 (Kumareswaran & Jayasinghe, 2022). In 2022, the global implications of the russia's war in Ukraine were also added to this list.

In the broader perspective of 2012-2022, Poland rose from the 24th to the 21st position in the GFSI index ranking, whereas Ukraine fell from the 44th position to the 71st, signifying a decline in food security levels. In the year 2020, among 113 nations worldwide, Ukraine ranked 54th (Figure 5). For comparative purposes, the Czech Republic claimed the 6th position, Romania the 22nd, Belarus the 23rd, Poland the 25th, Kazakhstan the 32nd, Hungary the 36th, Bulgaria the 44th, Turkey the 47th, and Serbia the 52nd. Ukraine achieved its highest scores in two categories: 1) affordability - 74.4 and 2) quality and safety - 75.3. Meanwhile, Poland held a substantial lead over Ukraine in terms of 1) affordability - 85.1 versus 74.4, 2) availability - 65.8 versus 51.6, and 3) quality and safety - 83.6 versus 75.3 (GFSI, 2022).

Figure 5. Dynamics of the GFSI rating for Ukraine and Poland for 2012-2022

Source: formed by authors based on (GFSI, 2022).

In the context of the GFSI index, Ukraine held the 58th position in 2021. However, in 2022, due to the impact of russia's military aggression, Ukraine experienced a considerable decline in its ranking, moving from the 58th to the 71st place. In contrast, Poland witnessed an incremental improvement in its standing, advancing from the 22nd to the 21st position. The regression in Ukraine's ranking was primarily caused by challenges related to affordability, as well as sustainability and adaptation aspects (GFSI, 2022).

6. Ways to improve the current state of the dairy industry of Ukraine. Export as an opportunity to survive. During the war, the domestic dairy product market in Ukraine experienced a significant contraction due to a significant increase in the number of citizens migrating abroad. Forecasts show that domestic demand declined to around 2.7 million tonnes, down 22 % from 2021. Hence, the revival of the sector, the preservation of employment opportunities, and the ability to contribute to the nation's budget during the wartime conditions are expected to hinge significantly on exports (Lytvyn, 2022).

Surprisingly, despite the ongoing war, Ukraine managed to export dairy products worth USD 344.6 million in 2022, marking a remarkable 39 % increase compared to the preceding year. Several factors contributed to this achievement, including (1) the active role of the European community in facilitating trade liberalization between Ukraine and the EU, (2) elevated global prices for dairy products during the initial three quarters of the year, and (3) the competitive edge of Ukrainian dairy offerings in the European market, particularly during the summer-autumn period. However, a shift was observed in the fourth quarter, as worldwide dairy product prices began to decline, subsequently impacting shipment volumes (UkrAgroConsult, 2023).

Promising prospects lie ahead as Ukraine explores potential collaborations with EU countries, Great Britain, and Canada, facilitated by the elimination of all customs duties and taxes on Ukrainian exports. This removal of duties and fees enhances the competitive edge of Ukrainian products in these markets. While the appeal of attractive prices and the removal of quotas for Ukrainian goods is evident, the volume of supplies to the EU remains constrained by logistical challenges. Nevertheless, European traders are demonstrating a readiness to bolster cooperation with Ukrainian exporters. By June 15, 2022, the EU had accredited 33 Ukrainian production facilities eligible to export products to its member states, including 5 newly accredited facilities since the onset of the war. Furthermore, 28 of these accredited capacities are authorized for export to Great Britain (Lytvyn, 2022).

Currently, Israel is the main importer of Ukrainian dairy products, the share of Ukraine in the import of dairy products to Israel is 6.8 %. According to data from the State Customs Service covering the period from June 1, 2022, to June 26, 2022, Ukraine has also exported dairy products to other countries, including Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines, Liberia, Trinidad and Tobago, Gambia, USA, Canada, Puerto Rico, among others, which collectively account for approximately 46 % of the overall exports. In parallel, approximately 54 % of these products find their destination in EU countries. In total, these exports amount to slightly over 7,462 net tons of dairy products, equating to an approximate monetary value of USD 19 million. The global market has unveiled a niche for Ukrainian offerings, and seizing this opportunity remains imperative (Lytvyn, 2022).

Foreign financial support

Following the collaborative meeting of the governments of Ukraine and the EU in Kyiv on February 2, 2023, the European Commission has undertaken a series of consequential decisions aimed at fostering closer ties between Ukraine and the EU. Some of these decisions will markedly impact the dairy industry. In particular, the European Commission is working hard to help Ukraine fully exploit the potential of the Association Agreement, which covers the Agreement on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA). Within this context, the Priority Action Plan for 2023-2024, outlining pivotal avenues for DCFTA implementation, will serve as a guiding framework for extending Ukraine's reach into the EU's internal market. The European Commission has also published a comprehensive package of technical support for the Agreements on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Goods (ACAA). In a concerted effort to strengthen Ukraine, the Commission has additionally revealed supplementary measures designed to streamline trade, including the suspension of import duties on Ukrainian exports. In addition, the Commission is now ready to propose the extension of these measures beyond June 2023. In the midst of these initiatives, the Commission has announced Ukraine's integration into key EU programs. The Commission and Ukraine signed the accession to the Single Market Program (SMP). This agreement promises Ukraine business assistance, streamlined market access, an advantageous business climate, sustainable growth, and internationalization. By becoming a part of this program, Ukraine will have the chance to take advantage of unique bidding opportunities within the ongoing programs and initiatives (Infagro, 2023c).

Discussion

The study findings validate the hypothesis of insufficient state financial support for Ukraine's dairy industry. Examination of key indicators for the country's dairy sector reveals a consistent trend of declining milk production. From 1990 to 2021, milk production decreased by threefold, cattle numbers by 8.8 times, and cow numbers by fivefold. This trend corresponds with decreased exports and increased imports of milk and dairy products. Ukrainian dairy product prices rank among the highest in the EU. Since 2020, the dairy industry has transitioned from being export- focused to import-reliant. Consequently, it can be concluded that the strategic objectives of budget program 2801540 “State support of the livestock industry” in terms of dairy farming development, have not been fully realized.

In contrast, Poland, a country with similar geographical and climatic conditions to Ukraine, displays opposite trends in its dairy industry indicators. Investigation into the Polish experience highlights a notably high level of state financial support for the dairy sector through various forms and fiscal incentives. Calculations from the authors indicate that during 2015-2021, Poland's state financial support ranged between 0.07 and 0.093 % of GDP, whereas Ukraine's support during 2015-2022 varied between

0. 002 and 0.067 % of GDP. This discrepancy is compounded by Ukraine's significantly lower GDP, averaging 4.4 times less than Poland's from 2015 to 2022. According to OECD data, the budget support in Ukraine during 2019-2021 accounted for less than 1 % of the gross income of farms (OECD, 2021). In comparison, Iceland had the highest share of subsidies in the total revenue of dairy farms in 2019, at 59.86 %, followed by Japan and Norway with 58.42 % and 56.54 %, respectively (Kondaridze & Luckstea, 2023). These combined facts indicate the extremely low level of state financing for livestock breeding in Ukraine. The self-sufficiency level in milk and dairy products in Ukraine dropped to 95.2 % in 2021, posing a significant threat to national food security. The situation has been further exacerbated by russia's military aggression. Direct losses in the livestock sector due to the russia's war in Ukraine reached USD 362.5 million by November 10, 2022. Indirect losses stemming from logistical disruptions, power outages, and the shift to generators are even more substantial.

Beyond the limited funding volume, the state support system for livestock breeding in Ukraine has a number of shortcomings that exacerbate the funding deficit. Simply increasing financial allocations for livestock production without addressing these deficiencies is likely to lead to suboptimal results. The principal drawback lies in the imperfection of mechanisms for procuring and distributing budget funds, coupled with lapses in budgetary discipline during their utilization. Moreover, the allocation of the finite state financial support for animal husbandry transpires without differentiation based on the scale of business entities. This approach overlooks the fact that small enterprises often face financial constraints, whereas medium-sized enterprises generally do not encounter such limitations. Economic potential of small enterprises depends significantly on their financing capabilities (Yaroshevych et al., 2019). Therefore, special emphasis on dairy cattle breeding for small enterprises is imperative. Table 3 provides key indicators depicting the funding structure and capital investments of dairy cattle breeding enterprises in Ukraine, differentiated by size.



Table 3

Structural indicators of enterprises in the field of dairy cattle breeding

in Ukraine in 2021

Types of enterprises by size	Structure of funding sources, %	Share of equity by the size of enterprises, %	Number of active enterprises, %	Gross investment in tangible goods, %
	equity capital	long-term commitm ents and provision	current liabilities and provision	including short-term banking credits
Large enterprises	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Medium enterprises	73.5	4.0	22.5	16.0	72.8	25.9	91.9
Small enterprises	39.7	4.5	55.9	4.3	19.0	74.1	8.0
of which microenterprises	39.4	0.8	59.4	2.8	8.1	59.4	0.1
Total	-	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	100.0
Source: ca	culated and compiled by the aut	hors according to the State Statistics Service of

The data presented in Table 3 for the year 2021 in Ukraine reveal that within this sector, medium-sized enterprises exhibit a predominant capital structure comprised of proprietary capital (73.5 %), while liabilities and provisions collectively constitute 26.5 %. Conversely, among small enterprises, the scenario is reversed, with equity contributing to 39.7 % of overall financing sources, and obligations and provisions accounting for 60.3 %. Notably, the proportion of long-term obligations and provisions within the financing source framework of micro-enterprises is significantly lower (0.8 %) compared to the broader category of small enterprises (4.5 %). The composition of short-term bank loans within the structure of current obligations and provisions differs across these segments: 16.0 % for medium-sized enterprises, 4.3 % for small enterprises, and 2.8 % for micro-enterprises. This divergence stems from the limited accessibility of bank credit for small businesses due to inadequate liquid collateral. Furthermore, the context of wartime conditions contributes to the hesitance of commercial banking institutions, which adopt stringent risk assessment strategies, to extend loans to farmers situated in zones of potential risk (Pavlenko, 2022).

The lack of financing sources for small business entities is further exemplified by the limited proportion of capital investments allocated to tangible assets. Specifically, for small enterprises, this constitutes 8.0 % of the total volume within this domain, and for micro-enterprises, a mere 0.1 %. In contrast, medium-sized enterprises allocate a substantial 91.9 % of capital investments to this category (as shown in Table 3). Given this reality, the relevance of considering this aspect when devising a state financial support program for animal husbandry becomes particularly pronounced during times of war and post-war transition, given the heightened vulnerability of small enterprises in such crisis contexts. Moreover, research by Petrick & Gotz (2019) underscores that state subsidies foster a higher growth rate in the cow population within small farms compared to agro-holdings.

For newly established business entities in the sphere of small business, securing an adequate volume of financing is of utmost significance for their effective initiation and subsequent growth. This aspect is comprehensively accounted for within the array of instruments comprising the state support framework for Polish farms. This framework encompasses supplementary direct payments directed at young farmers. These payments are intended for farmers who are initiating or have commenced their farming operations within the five years prior to their initial application, and who are under the age of 40 in the first year of application submission. In the year 2021, the payment rate stood at PLN 308.59 per hectare (EUR 67.6). In Ukraine, during the same year, additional payments for newly established farms were exclusively allocated for obtaining agricultural advisory services, contingent upon a contract concluded prior to the culmination of the present budgetary period and substantiated by completed work records.

In EU countries, a strategy to ease administrative complexities for small farms involves the implementation of a unified payment, which serves as a replacement for various other forms of income support provided to farmers. This approach could be adopted in Ukraine within its financial capacities.

The findings of a survey conducted among diverse economic entities as part of the “German-Ukrainian Agricultural Policy Dialogue” project (75 respondents) indicate that during periods of martial law and limited funding, interest-free lending programs are particularly pertinent, alongside direct subsidies per hectare and per head of cattle. This perspective is prominent among farms working on up to 100 hectares, facing constraints in working capital, and lacking a favourable credit history.

Respondents also proposed measures to expedite fund allocation across sectors and streamline the process of assessing recipients ' documents and decisions on payments (Pavlenko, 2022).

Considering the impact of high inflation and international trends in mitigating its effects on food affordability for the population, we consider it necessary to reduce the VAT on milk and dairy products to 5 %. This step would stimulate higher dairy consumption and, in part, offset the budgetary implications of a lower VAT through a reduction in the informal market in this sector.



Conclusions

In the upcoming years, the state budget is expected to face a deficit for reconstruction. It is probable that Ukraine will seek financial assistance from foreign partners, particularly directed towards the revival of the dairy industry. However, for optimal utilization of these resources, it is imperative to establish an efficient mechanism for managing animal husbandry financing, along with reliable oversight over fund use.

Taking into account the limitations of state funding, we believe that (1) the set of instruments for state financial support of animal husbandry should be formed depending on the size of business entities because small business entities (especially micro-enterprises) have the greatest need for additional financial resources; (2) agricultural producers in the de-occupied territories should have priority access to such assistance; (3) the conditions and criteria under which state support is guaranteed to be available should be clearly defined; (4) to ensure comprehensive and timely financing, it is imperative to expedite the fund allocation process across sectors and streamline the approval of financial documentation; (5) it is needed to accelerate document review and decision-making processes for state subsidy disbursement;

(6) furthermore, exploring the possibility of providing cattle maintenance payments to small business entities without requiring main fund manager coordination is advisable;

(7) in order to counteract the decline in dairy farming, mitigate the reduction in milk and dairy product production, and alleviate consumer price hikes, introducing a reduced VAT rate (5 %) on milk and dairy products is recommended. This practice aligns with the norm in European Union countries and aims to uphold food product accessibility, particularly crucial given the relatively high portion of Ukrainian expenditures dedicated to food.

The primary limitation of this study is the restricted dataset available for assessing the state support level for Ukrainian animal husbandry. Consequently, the analysis is limited to data for 2015-2022, which, to some extent, restricts the dynamics evaluation. Moreover, the number of directions and sub-directions funded within the budget program 2801540 “State support of the livestock industry” varied annually, complicating a precise analysis of trends.

The findings of this study can serve as a foundational information source for constructing a state financial support program for Ukraine's dairy industry, incorporating insights from European practices. These results are the basis for further scientific research in the direction of developing a set of measures to revitalize the dairy sector of Ukraine and restore food security.



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