Review of electromagnetic monitoring studies in predicting earthquakes: recent results and new perspectives
Comparison for new prospects for the use of electromagnetic phenomena in earthquake forecasting, the ultra-low frequency range was selected. Research of information about Ulf networks and researchers who had critical views on electromagnetic phenomena.
| Рубрика | Физика и энергетика |
| Вид | статья |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 05.09.2022 |
| Размер файла | 271,6 K |
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Review of electromagnetic monitoring studies in predicting earthquakes: recent results and new perspectives
R. Piriyev,
Baku State University, Baku, Azerbaijan
In order to make comparisons and find new perspectives in terms of electromagnetic phenomena in earthquake prediction, ULF range was chosen. For comparison, tables consisting of the results of studies from previous years and the last 10 years have been compiled. In order to find new perspectives, the graphs were drawn and comparative analysis was carried out on the basis of these results. It was concluded that the ULF precursors can be found before earthquakes reaching up to 30km in depth, and it can be considered a promising effective range in detecting precursors of earthquakes. In addition, due to the connection between the epicenter distances and the depths of the earthquakes and their magnitudes, attempts to detect the precursors have been made so that the epicenter of the earthquakes is ±100km. The article also provides information about ULF networks and about researchers who had critical opinions on electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes.
Keywords: ULF, earthquake, prediction, electromagnetic, precursor.
Р. Пирієв,
Бакинський державний університет, м. Баку, Азербайджан
ОГЛЯД ЕЛЕКТРОМАГНІТНИХ МОНІТОРИНГОВИХ ДОСЛІДЖЕНЬ У ПРОГНОЗІ ЗЕМЛЕТРУСІВ:
ОСТАННІ РЕЗУЛЬТАТИ ТА НОВІ ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ
Для проведення порівняння та пошуку нових перспектив застосування електромагнітних явищ у прогнозі землетрусів було обрано діапазон ультра низьких частот (УНЧ). Для порівняння складено таблиці, що містять результати досліджень минулих років, включаючи останнє десятиліття. Для того щоб знайти нові перспективи, було побудовано графіки та проведено порівняльний аналіз на основі цих результатів. Зроблено висновок, що передвісники УНЧ можуть бути перед землетрусами, що досягають глибин до 30 км, і цей діапазон можна вважати перспективним ефективним діапазоном виявлення передвісників землетрусів. Крім того, через зв'язок епіцентральних відстаней із глибинами землетрусів та їх магнітудами робилися спроби виявлення провісників так, щоб епіцентр землетрусів становив ±100 км. Також наводиться інформація про мережі УНЧ та про дослідників, які мали критичні погляди на електромагнітні явища, пов'язані із землетрусами. electromagnetic earthquake frequency network
Ключові слова: УНЧ, землетрус, прогноз, електромагнітне поле, провісник.
Р. Пириев,
Бакинский государственный университет, г. Баку, Азербайджан
ОБЗОР ЭЛЕКТРОМАГНИТНЫХ МОНИТОРИНГОВЫХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ В ПРОГНОЗЕ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ:
ПОСЛЕДНИЕ РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ И НОВЫЕ ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ
Для проведения сравнения и поиска новых перспектив применения электромагнитных явлений в прогнозе землетрясений был выбран диапазон ультра низких частот (УНЧ). Для сравнения составлены таблицы, состоящие из результатов исследований прошлых лет, включая последнее десятилетие. Для того чтобы найти новые перспективы, были построены графики и проведен сравнительный анализ на основе этих результатов. Сделан вывод, что предвестники УНЧ могут обнаруживаться перед землетрясениями, достигающими глубин до 30 км, и этот диапазон можно считать перспективным эффективным диапазоном обнаружения предвестников землетрясений. Кроме того, из-за связи эпицентральных расстояний с глубинами землетрясений и их магнитудами предпринимались попытки обнаружения предвестников так, чтобы эпицентр землетрясений составлял ±100 км. Также приводится информация о сетях УНЧ и об исследователях, имевших критические взгляды на электромагнитные явления, связанные с землетрясениями.
Ключевые слова: УНЧ, землетрясение, прогноз, электромагнитное поле, предвестник.
Intoduction
Earthquake prediction is the human effort to predict the time which is called precursor time, the location where it can occur, and the magnitude, that's how strong an earthquake could be. It is one of the most important problems of modern geophysics (Hayakawa, 2015). The problem of prediction is still far from being solved (Schekotov et al., 2021). Depending on timescale earthquake prediction can be classified into 3 groups: long-term, medium-term and shortterm prediction (Fig. 1). Using an earthquake catalogue it is possible to evaluate the long-term and medium-term occurrence probability of a large earthquake in a certain area during a prescribed period and should not be considered as real predictions. But short-term prediction is the only useful and meaningful form for protecting human lives and social infrastructures. Short-term prediction absolutely requires study of earthquake precursors (Hayakawa, 2018). Earthquake precursor data can include geodetic signals such as tilt, GPS (Global Positioning System) data, hydrological data, electromagnetic fluctuations in various frequencies, emission of radon and other ionized gases, and anomalous animal behavior (Rikitake, 2001) (Fig. 2). Among these precursor data electromagnetic data take a special place (Fig. 3).
Fig.1. Classification of earthquake prediction (Hayakawa, 2018)
Fig. 2. Classification of earthquake precursor data (Rikitake, 2001)
Fig. 3. Classification of measurements of electromagnetic phenomena (Hattori, 2004)
If we take a look at the past, the unique case of the successful earthquake prediction was Haicheng (M=7.3, EQ in China) prediction. The earthquake occurred on February 4, 1975, in the north-east part of China. Scientists were able to predict it. After 1965, activation of seismicity occurred in an area of 120km to SSW from Beijing with several destructive earthquakes with M>6. After this long-term prediction, Chinese government greatly strengthened earthquake study and precursor monitoring attaching to observation experts and also amateurs and scholars. Many middle-term precursors were observed in 1973 and 1974 in a large area of 200x300 km which in December 1974 - January 1975 concentrated in a smaller area. In January 1975, quiescence of seismicity was observed but anomalies of groundwater, telluric currents, radon, tilt, animal behavior, etc. which considered short-term precursors increased till January 23, then
The ULF band is of particular interest because only EM signals in the ULF range and at lower frequencies can be easily recorded at the Earth's surface without significant attenuation compared with "high" frequency bands because most of the epicenter depths are at more than 10km, even several hundreds of kilometers, beneath the Earth's surface (Li et al., 2013). ULF geomagnetic change is one of the most promising phenomena and it suggests that short-term prediction of earthquakes is realizable. Similar electromagnetic phenomena are associated with volcanic activity. Since source regions are well known for their volcanic activity, observation is easier than in seismic cases. Electromagnetic phenomena associated with volcanic activities have been summarized in the works of Johnston (1997) and Zlotnicki (2003) (Hattori, 2004).
Material and methods
The aim of this article is to review ULF electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes, and try to make comparisons and find perspectives. Numerous researches conducted in connection with the study of earthquakes have shown that electromagnetic monitoring studies have led to some important results (Novruzov and Piriyev, 2015; Piriyev, 2021). The ULF range can be considered the ideal range for detecting earthquake precursors. This can be easily seen in Table 1.
Table 1 ULF electromagnetic precursors for different earthquakes
|
Earthquakes |
Date |
Magni tude |
Depth |
Epicentral distance |
Observation station |
Frequency range |
Precursory time |
Inten sity |
|
|
Spitak (Molchanov et al., 1992) |
07.12.1988 |
6.9 |
6 km |
128 km |
Dusheti (Georgia) |
0.0005-5 Hz |
4 hours before EQ |
0.2 nT |
|
|
Loma Prieta (Fraser-Smith et al., 1990) |
17.10.1989 |
7.1 |
15 km |
7 km |
Corralitos (USA) |
0.01-10 Hz |
3 hours before EQ |
5 nT |
|
|
Guam (Hayakawa et al., 1996) |
08.08.1993 |
7.7 |
60 km |
67 km |
USGS staff GUAM |
0.02-0.05 Hz |
10 days-2 weeks and a few days before EQ |
0.1 nT |
|
|
Biak (Hayakawa et al., 2000) |
17.02.1996 |
8.2 |
20 km |
1200 km |
Biak and Darwin (Australia) |
5 mHz-30 mHz |
1.5-1.0 months before EQ |
0.2-0.3 nT |
|
|
Chi Chi (Akinaga et al., 2001) |
21.09.1999 |
7.6 |
11 km |
120 km |
Lunping |
0.01 Hz |
2.0 months before EQ |
- |
|
|
Sumatra-Andaman (Saroso et al., 2009) |
26.12.2004 |
9.1 |
30 km |
750 km |
Kototabang (Indonesia) |
- |
1.5 month before the EQ |
- |
|
|
Sumatra-Nias (Saroso et al., 2009) |
28.03.2005 |
8.6 |
30 km |
750 km |
Kototabang (Indonesia) |
- |
1.5 month before the EQ |
- |
|
|
L'Aquila (Prattes et al., 2011) |
06.04.2009 |
6.3 |
8.8 km |
630 km |
L'Aquila (Italy) |
10-15 mHz |
2 weeks before the EQ |
- |
|
|
Sichuan (Li et al., 2015) |
12.05.2008 |
7.9 |
19 km |
80 km |
Chengdu (China) |
10-20 mHz |
A few days before EQ |
- |
|
|
Tohoku (Ohta et al., 2013) |
11.03.2011 |
9.1 |
29 km |
30 km |
(Japan) |
01-24 Hz |
5 days before EQ |
- |
The emergence of ULF precursors at different times causes scientists not to make accurate prediction. My main goal in describing the graph in Fig. 4, and in Fig. 5 is to see it more clearly. ULF precursors have been detected at different times before the earthquakes of different years since 1964. If we look at the graphs, the ULF precursors appeared before all earthquakes above 5 and at a depth of up to 30km. In addition, the distance between the epicenter of earthquakes and observation points reaches 800km. From here it can be concluded that there is a connection between the epicentral distance and the magnitude. Thus, it is possible to mark earthquakes with a magnitude above 5.0 at a higher epicenter distance. ULF precursors are found more frequently than other ranges at the same time. Most of the earthquakes since 1964 have been recorded in the ULF slightly decreased, and since February 1 rose in hundreds times. From February 3 to February 4 about 500 earthquakes with magnitude up to 4.2 as foreshocks of strong earthquake. Thousands of buildings collapsed, but hundred thousand lives have been saved by the well-timed prediction (Rokityansky et al., 2019).
Fig. 4. ULF precursory signatures before earthquakes
There are also special cases in ULF precursors. For example, ULF precursors appeared three times before the Loma Prieta earthquake. The magnetometer was located only 7km from the epicenter and recorded increased ULF noise reaching 1.5 nT in amplitude during the month before, two weeks before, and a few hours before the earthquake (Johnston, 1997). No matter how hard it was to find new perspectives in term of electromagnetic phenomena, I have collected ULF precursory signatures before earthquakes in Fig. 4 and tried to make comparisons with ULF precursors and different frequency ranges, I proposed the graph shown in Fig. 5. As it can easily be seen from the graph, ULF precursors cover many places with respect to LF and VLF precursors. That means that ULF electromagnetic precursors may be associated with all earthquakes with magnitude above 5.0. The only difficult thing is that those precursors appear in different times prior to earthquakes. In Fig. 4 we can easily find the correlation between the magnitudes of earthquakes and their epicentral distances and depths. As the magnitude grows, the epicentral distance grows respectively. The ideal observation distance is ±100km from the epicenter. The other interesting fact is that ULF precursors can be detected by at least 1 observatory station (if there is more than one) prior to all earthquakes with the depth up to 30 km.
There are also ULF networks in different regions for the detection of ULF precursors in order to try to predict earthquakes. ULF networks are known to be installed in the Kanto area in Japan in order to be able to predict any earthquakes with M>6 (Hayakawa and Hattori, 2004), in the Kamchatka area (Uyeda et al., 2002), in Taiwan (Hattori et al., 2002), in Greece (Makris et al., 2003), etc.
There have been published few papers criticizing above mentioned precursors in different years. e.g. the validity of the reported 1989 M7.1 Loma Prieta precursor had been questioned by Thomas et al. (2009) and Campbell (2009), the subject of magnetic precursors remained controversial by Sevgi (2007), Masci and Thomas (2015). But they are very few in contrast with papers which presented electromagnetic precursors of earthquakes since 1964 till now.
Recent results
The study by Schekotov et al. (2021). To solve earthquake prediction problem, we need to be able to estimate its magnitude, time, and position of an upcoming event (Uyeda, 2013). This year Schekotov et al. (2021) tried to solve one task - to find the epicenter position of upcoming earthquakes. They used a method for predicting of the epicenter location region of Kamchatka and Commander earthquakes. This method was based on the properties of the precursory atmospheric ULF/ELF (1-30 IHz) radiation and the spatial statistics of local earthquakes in relation to the Kuril-Kam- chatka and Aleutian trenches. This statistics showed that more than 90% of events with Ml>5 occur in the gap ~ 150 km west of the Kuril-Kamchatka trench and north east of the Aleutian trench. Therefore, they obtained the approximate location of the epicenter by determining the position of the radiation source. Schekotov et al. (2021) supposed that it was caused by gas eruption from the heart of the earthquake to the trench and had the nearest location to the earthquake epicenter. The main drawbacks of the method were the dependence of its accuracy on the industrial interferences and the ambiguity of determining the epicenter location in the case of single-point registration of radiation when the main lobe of the azimuthal distribution of radiation crosses both trenches (Schekotov et al., 2021).
The study by Potirakis et al. (2019). There is another attempt by the scientists from Greece, Russia and Japan to use ULF magnetic field data from space weather monitoring magnetometer array in the study of earthquake precursors in Greece in 2019. They had analyzed the data from 4 stations of the HellENIc GeoMagnetic Array (ENIGMA) in the search for possible precursors to a strong earthquake that occurred south of Lesvos island on 12 June 2017. The magnitude of the earthquake was 6.3 and focal depth was 12 km. Potirakis et al. (2019) used the analysis which included conventional statistical methods, as well as criticality analysis, using NT- natural time method and MCF-the method of critical fluctuations. From conventional statistical methods, it was found by the scientists that the most convincing ULF precursors were observed in the data of ULF (20-30 mHz) depression of the horizontal component of the magnetic field. It was indicative of lower ionospheric perturbation just 1 day before the earthquake. Therefore, there were indications of a precursor in the direct ULF emission from the lithosphere 4 days to 1 day before the EQ. Their further study in terms of NT analysis identified criticality characteristics from 8 to 2 days before the earthquake both for lithospheric ULF emission and ULF depression. MCF revealed indications of criticality in all recorded magnetic field components, extending from 10 to 3 days before the earthquake. Potirakis et al. (2019) had also analyzed the recordings of the fracto-electromagnetic emission stations of the HELlenic Seismo-ElectroMagnetics Network (ELSEM- Net) in Greece. The MHZ recordings at the station that is located on Lesvos island presented criticality characteristics (NT and MCF) 11 days before the earthquake, while a few days later (7-6 days before the earthquake), the kHz recordings of the same station presented tricritical behavior. It was noted that the magnetosphere was quiet for a period of two weeks before the earthquake and including its occurrence (Potirakis et al., 2019).
The study by Schekotov et al. (2017). In April, 2016 a series of large earthquakes attacked the Kumamoto area of Kyusyu Island. The first two foreshocks had the magnitudes of 6.5 and 6.4, and about 1 day later there was the main shock on 15 April with magnitude 7.3 These were fault-type earthquakes, and Schekotov et al. (2017) would expect a variety of electromagnetic precursors to those earthquakes because they had detected different phenomena for the Kobe earthquake, the same fault-type earthquake. As for the lithospheric effect, the ULF data at Kanoya observatory which is about 150 km from the epicenter were used. Schekotov et al. (2017) used two - statistical and conventional analyses in order to provide with any evidence of ULF radiation. Only conventional analyses indicated clear signatures in the atmosphere as ULF/ELF impulsive emissions and also in the ionosphere as observed by means of VLF propagation anomalies and ULF depression. ULF/ELF radiation appeared on 8-11 April, while ULF depression took place on 8 and 10 April, so that both atmospheric radiation and ionospheric perturbation took place nearly during the same time period (Schekotov et al., 2017). The other recent works are shown in Table 2.
Table 2
Parameters of EQs
|
EQ |
Magnitude |
Date |
Depth (km) |
Frequency range |
Method |
Precursory moment |
Researchers |
|
|
Jayapura Regency (Indonesia) |
4.5 |
2017 |
<50 |
ULF geomagnetic |
Data processing and analysis polarization power ratio (Z/H) method |
A few days before the EQ |
Armansyah, and Ahadi, S., 2017 |
|
|
Tohoku (Japan) |
9.0 |
11.03.2011 |
29 |
ULF geomagnetic |
Geomagnetic observation |
Geomagnetic anomalous changes over years |
Rokityansky et al., 2019 |
|
|
Chiapas (Mexico) |
8.1 |
08.09.2017 |
72 |
ULF geomagnetic |
Geomagnetic observation Fast Fourier transform (FFT) method |
5 hours before the EQ |
Stдnicд, D.A., and Stдnicд D., 2019 |
|
|
Three EQs in the Indian peninsula |
- |
2010-2017 |
- |
ULF magnetic |
long-term analysis of ULF data |
9-16 days before the EQ |
Swati et al., 2020 |
|
|
Lebak, Banten (Indonesia) |
6.1 |
23.01.2018 |
46 |
ULF geomagnetic |
Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) |
2 weeks before the EQ |
Febriani et al., 2020 |
|
|
South-West, East Asia and South America |
2007-2016 |
geomagnetic |
Data processing and analysis |
20 possible precursory sources before the EQ |
Yusof et al., 2021 |
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