The global impact of united states presidential elections: security aspect

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УДК [327.8:324](73) “2016”

the global impact of united states presidential elections: security aspect

Manchulenko O.,

postgraduate student of the Department of the international relations, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, the United States Fulbright scholar (Chernivtsi, Ukraine), E-mail: visnukdnu@i.ua

Abstract

Keywords: elections, Presidential campaign, security, defense, foreign policy strategy.

Манчуленко О. Г., аспірантка кафедри міжнародних відносин Чернівецького національного університету імені Юрія Федьковича, стипендіат Програми Фулбрайта (Чернівці, Україна), E-mail: visnukdnu@i.ua

Глобальний вплив президентських виборів США: аспект безпеки

Анотація. Ціль статті полягає в розумінні звязку між Президентськими виборами в США та їх глобальним впливом. Автор намагається проаналізувати виконання передвиборчих обіцянок новообраного Президента США та головний напрям зовнішньої політики. Дане дослідження представляє огляд основних проблем, які обговорювалися протягом кампанії 2016року, а також аналіз заяв Президента та їх вплив на міжнародну спільноту. Ініціативи та рішення стосовно питань безпеки та оборони також будуть охарактеризовані.

Ключові слова: вибори, президентська передвиборча кампанія, безпека, оборона, зовнішньополітична стратегія

Манчуленко О., аспирантка кафедры международных отношений Черновицкого национального университета имени Юрия Федьковича стипендиат Программы Фулбрайта (Черновцы, Украина), E-mail: visnukdnu@i.ua

Глобальное влияние президентских выборов США: аспект безопасности.

Аннотация. Цель статьи заключается в понимании связи между президентскими выборами в США и их глобальным влиянием. Автор пытается проанализировать выполнение предвыборных обещаний новоизбранного Президента США и главное направление внешней политики. Данное исследование представляет обзор основных проблем, которые обсуждались в течение кампании 2016 года, а также анализ заявлений

Президента и их влияние на международное сообщество. Инициативы и решения по вопросам безопасности и обороны также будут охарактеризованы.

Ключевые слова: выборы, президентская предвыборная кампания, безопасность, оборона, внешнеполитическая стратегия

The United States influence is far from being underestimated and this country is a well-known global actor and main super power. Even if the democratic system is prevention from power abuse, it still gives the President an important role of highest political spokesman of the American nation and the main influencer on the international community. This leads the United States towards the long process of presidential elections. And any elections, actually, come with surprises. The candidates and the issues they were discussing will have far reaching effects, not just for American public policy but policy throughout the world.

The objective below is to understand the relation between the United States presidential elections and its global impact. This article tends to examine how the newly-elected President is fulfilling his promises and his main foreign policy direction.

This research provides an overview of the major issues being discussed during the 2016 Presidential campaign. It will offer some analysis how the specific statements of newly elected President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, impact the international community and define his foreign policy agenda for the upcoming years. It will analyze the initiatives and decisions concerning security issues made by new President Donald Trump.

The main sources used to write this article were the following: Michael Armacost «Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections», in which he proves that the Presidential election in the US are observed by the international community and shape the international relations. Also, the official papers, statements and legal documents were used to conduct this research.

The Presidential campaign in United States has ended. A newly elected President according to the Constitution, as the Commander-in-Chief and responsible for foreign policy strategy now faces the ongoing conflicts all over the world. Despite that every election is almost always a matter of America's internal business, the situation in the United States, as a global leader, is on the political agenda of every other country in the world. The United States' crucial role in resolving different global policy issues and conflicts is far from being underestimated. That is why it is important to understand the global impact of the Presidential campaign, and how it affects the international security environment. As Michael Armacost states in his newly published book «Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains» [1], he was reminded that the U.S. presidential elections unfold in a gigantic echo chamber. Candidates generally speak to domestic constituencies as if outsiders were not listening in. Rhetoric directed at American voters can have an unfortunate - even toxic - impact abroad as contenders pander to local prejudices, express disdain for foreign leaders, and volunteer gratuitous and often uncharitable judgments about the institutions and policies of particular foreign countries.

He says, no country's elections are observed by foreigners with more attentiveness and nervousness than the United States'. For countries that enjoy the support of powerful voting blocs in the Unites States, these elections offer golden opportunities to entice new commitments or solicit new subventions from Washington [1].

The recent Presidential elections ended with Donald Trump becoming the 45th President of the United States. During the campaign a lot of topics were discussed, but to understand the President's political platform, we should consider his positions on the most pressing foreign policy issues.

The major concentrations of the next U.S. President would be on defense, national security, the Islamic State and Ukraine.

On defense, during his Presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to expand the armed services and lift the caps on the defense budget. He insisted on increasing the size and readiness of the U.S. armed forces: the number of active Army soldiers from 490,000 to 540,000 and the number of Marine Corps battalions from twenty-three to thirty-six, building up the Navy's fleet from roughly 270 ships to 350, and expanding the number of Air Force fighter aircraft from roughly 1,100 to 1,200. In addition, his plans call for developing a «cutting-edge» ballistic missile defense system that would include upgrades to some Navy warships [2].

The next pressing issue during the campaign was maintaining the old alliances, such as NATO. Donald Trump questioned the utility of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He called the institution «obsolete» for, among other things, focusing too little on terrorism, and said the United States was paying much more than its fair share for the alliance [3].

In early 2016, Trump questioned whether the NATO [3], an alliance founded decades ago to deter Soviet aggression, is still relevant. Moreover, he said the United States was paying much more than its fair share for the alliance. Despite his criticisms, however, Trump said that as president he would honor U.S. treaty commitments under NATO, including the defense of the Baltic states from potential Russian encroachment.

His position on the Islamic State is quite definitive. Fighting the Islamic State must be with a coalition of Western and Arab states, establishing a no-fly zone over parts of Syria, conducting more U.S. airstrikes, arming and supporting Kurdish and Sunni Arab fighters and the President, during the campaign, promised to «wipe out ISIS» [4].

The other pillar of the pressing foreign policy issues is the war in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimean peninsula orchestrated and conducted by Russia. The Republican candidate's position is more likely to be supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin because of his willingness to forge a working relationship with Putin, increasing pressure on NATO allies in Europe to contribute more to the alliance, and urging European states to put diplomatic pressure, including sanctions, on Russia for its Ukraine intervention.

In case of examining the possible change in the Ukrainian question, we must take into consideration that Donald Trump has at times praised Putin's brand of leadership and said he would enjoy meeting the Russian leader. Trump has said that because of his business background, he would likely have a «great relationship with Putin» [5].

These positions were stated while answering direct dilemmas of modern foreign policy issues, but the conclusion is that his pursuing the different foreign questions in the Presidential campaign is far from the desired level. Does it necessarily mean that Ukraine is off the books in the United States? Or, that NATO will face problems? It is not appropriate to draw such a conclusion, based on the debates, whose primary purpose is to convince the Americans to vote for one or the other candidate. Candidates are not allowed to choose the questions asked by moderators or voters, who are more interested in addressing domestic issues in education, social inequality, health care, and taxes. The «Russian issue» and its involvement in hacker attacks on United States, Syria war and its aggression was slightly mentioned during the debates. There has been no direct addressing of the war in Ukraine, but every pressure put on Russia has effects on its policy and behavior in international affairs.

What has changed, since January 20? The Secretary of State met NATO foreign ministers on March 31. Donald Trump has since said he strongly supports the alliance; but in interviews and speeches he continues to air grievances over what he sees as Europe's failure to pay its fair share of protecting the West [6]. Despite this, President of the United States will attend the NATO summit in May 2017 [7]. The new administration is trying to reassure allies of US support and commitment. Also, as a former US Ambassador to NATO pointed out, «I think the president is exactly right to chastise Europeans for not spending enough on defense. It's something that every president has done. Barack Obama called European allies free riders, and it's perfectly valid to point out that Europe needs to pay more on defense» [8], Donald Trump is trying to persuade European allies to be responsible in terms of security and defense by increasing their spending.

The period after the inauguration has been marked by rising Russia problems tied to the new administration on contacts prior to taking the office. As scrutiny over the Trump administration's ties to Russia grows, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said that Trump had, on the contrary been «incredibly tough on Russia» [9].

His spokesman said that Trump had made it clear he expected the Russian government to «deescalate violence in the Ukraine and return Crimea», while at the same time pursuing better relations with Russia [9].

Since the inauguration, there has been not enough time and statements, especially as the positions in foreign policy and security teams have not been filled yet. But to analyze the agenda and the intensions of the new Administration, we should address the Munich Annual Security conference, where leaders and politicians held press conferences and meetings, which showed where the foreign policy agenda of a new administration is shifting. The Vice-President of the United States, Mike Pence, in his speech, in which he stated:

«Today, on behalf of President Trump, I bring you this assurance. The United States of America strongly supports NATO and will be unwavering in our commitment to this transatlantic alliance.. .This is President Trump's promise: We will stand with Europe, today and every day, because we are bound together by the same noble ideals - freedom, democracy, justice, and the rule of law.. .Our shared values and our shared sacrifices are the source of the United States' enduring bond to the nations and peoples of Europe. And to be ready, if and when that day comes, in Article 3 we vowed in that treaty to contribute our fair share to our common defense. The promise to share the burden of our defense has gone unfulfilled for too many for too long, and it erodes the very foundation of our alliance. When even one ally fails to do their part, it undermines our ability to come to each other's aid. At that Wales summit in 2014, all 28 members of NATO declared their intention to move towards a minimum security commitment of 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense within the decade.As of this moment, the United States and only four other NATO members meet this basic standard. And with regard to Ukraine, we must continue to hold Russia accountable and demand that they honor the Minsk Agreements, beginning by de-escalating the violence in eastern Ukraine. And know this: The United States will continue to hold Russia accountable, even as we search for new common ground, which, as you know, President Trump believes can be found.. .As President Trump has made clear, the United States will fight tirelessly to crush these enemies -- especially ISIS and its so-called caliphate - and consign them to the ash heap of history, where they belong..» [10]

This statement gives a substantial amount of information about how the United States is going to conduct its foreign policy and which promises made during Presidential campaign are going to be fulfilled and in what way the new administration is going to maintain current alliances. The critique about military expenditures of NATO countries is fair, taking into consideration that European countries, during the last 3 decades only cut their forces, thus their spending in NATO, while relying on the United States military forces and its commitment based upon the North Atlantic Treaty. But, the United States defending its allies in Europe provides it with benefits, such as $ 699 billion in trade with the European Union, America's largest trade partner; bases near Russia, the Middle East and Africa, and in counterterrorism and intelligence sharing [11]. Despite doubts among European leaders during the United States Presidential campaign, Mike Pence made it clear that the ties with Europe and values have a strong bond. Trump's promise to fight against ISIS appears to be kept as one of the main challenges during his presidency.

Mike Pence didn't mention a word about Crimea, but the official position ofthe United States administration is also represented by the Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the UN Security Council. As she said, «Eastern Ukraine of course is not the only part of the country suffering because of Russia's aggressive actions. The United States continues to condemn and call for an immediate end to the Russian occupation of Crimea».

«Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control of the peninsula to Ukraine», said Haley [12].

The US policy towards Russia is changing rapidly, causing the expectations that Donald Trump will accelerate bilateral relations to fade. One of the main reasons for this change is the investigations into Russia's alleged interference in the U.S. presidential election [13]. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, the new Administration is trying to find areas of cooperation with Russia, but is increasingly mindful ofthe country's actions that are contrary to U.S. interests [13]. And the meeting with the Russian leader is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. All of that, as well as Russian intervention in Ukraine, their cyber intrusions and involvement in the US Presidential elections, makes Donald Trump's promises to cooperate with Russia and ease sanctions highly unlikely to happen.

The newly elected President will have to deal with these and many other difficult foreign policy issues. One is the ongoing War in Ukraine, which was planned and conducted by Russia. The United States presidential debates makes it difficult to outline the position on Ukraine in the United States foreign policy agenda, but the past support of the Obama Administration demonstrates that the White House has had a strict position against permanent Russia aggression. Also, all conflicts Russia is accused of being involved in are more or less connected and United States cannot resolve one without proper approaches to the others.

Foreign policy in the United States is done with countries, mostly, and with international institutions and alliances. It has lots of legacies and continuities, as well as problems (Middle East peace). The United States government has concerns about human rights, migration, and terrorists and does everything in its power to work on this, especially by sending its representatives abroad and its military presences. What has to be considered is that foreign policy is almost entirely the President's function. The speech given by his running mate - Vice-President Mike Pence - Is the reflection of his positon on different and pressing foreign policy issues.

The situation in Ukraine and Russian involvement there has changed the international environment and made countries adjust to this new reality, as well as creating talk about a new «Cold War» and urging growth of their military expenditures. The sanctions imposed on Russia, have affected not only Russia, but the migration crisis has enhanced far right movements and the ISIS threat is not yet contained. All that makes campaign promises and statements fade in the light of uncontrolled circumstances and a changing international environment.

Conclusion

president elections international policy

Every four years the whole world stands with the American citizens, while they chose their next President. The US Presidential campaign is unique in the sense of its effect on the world. It would be difficult to underestimate the statements and their influence on the international community made during the long election process. The candidates held meetings with foreign leaders and representatives, support different initiatives meant to shape the foreign policy environment upon their taking office.

But the statements made during the campaign do not reflect the whole foreign policy agenda, as well as the position of a candidate, as Obama was reported to have been overheard speaking on the telephone with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, explaining his limited flexibility on key bilateral issues: «On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this can be solved but it's important for him [Vladimir Putin] to give me space. This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility»[2]. This proves that only after elections and completion of a foreign policy team, would there be an exact strategy. As we can observe now, the President and Secretary of State will attend NATO meetings; the position of the United States concerning Crimea and the war in Ukraine has not changed; and allegations of Russian meddling in the U.S. Presidential elections and involvement of Donald Trump team members with high- ranking Russia representatives, may only change the Presidents' views on Russia. As far as we know, Donald Trump is finding it difficult to keep his promises made during the Presidential campaign last year.

Citation

1. Armacost M. H. Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections. - New York: Columbia University Press, 2015, - 288 p.

2. The Next Commander in Chief See where Donald Trump wants to take U.S. foreign policy // Council on Foreign Relations, - URL: http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/.(Accessed 09.04.2017)

3. Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views // The New York Times, March 26, 2016, - URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald- trump-transcript.html?_r=1. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

4. The Next Commander in Chief See where Donald Trump wants to take U.S. foreign policy // Council on Foreign Relations, - URL: http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

5. Trump on Putin, Russia in Syria: `If He Wants to Fight ISIS, Let Him Fight ISIS' // Fox News, September 29, 2015, - URL: http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/09/29/donald-tmmp-putin- russia-syria-if-he-wants-fight-isis-let-him-fight-isis. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

6. Emmott R., Wroughton L. Tillerson to meet NATO on March 31, ending no-show furor // Reuters, March 24, 2017, - URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson-nato- idUSKBN16V1T0. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

7. Trump to attend NATO summit in May, White House says, - URL: http://www.heraldnet. com/news/trump-to-attend-nato-summit-in-may-white-house-says/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

8. Former U.S. Ambassador Criticizes Trump's Framing Of How NATO Works // NPR, March 20, 2017, - URL: http://www.npr.org/2017/03/20/520862721/former-u-s-ambassador- criticizes-trumps-framing-of-how-nato-works (Accessed 09.04.2017)

9. Dewan A. Russia: The problem Trump can't escape // CNN, March 13, 2017, - URL: http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/trump-russia-issues/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

10. Remarks by the Vice President at the Munich Security Conference // The White House, February 21, 2017 - URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/02/18/remarks- vice-president-munich-security-conference (Accessed 09.04.2017)

11. Fisher M., Peganha S. What the U.S. Gets for Defending Its Allies and Interests Abroad // The New York Times, January 16, 2017, - URL: https://www.nytimes.com/ interactive/2017/01/16/world/trump-military-role-treaties-allies-nato-asia-persian-gulf.html (Accessed 09.04.2017)

12. Gaouette N., Roth R. UN Ambassador Haley hits Russia hard on Ukraine // CNN, February 03, 2017, - URL: http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/02/politics/haley-russia-un/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

13. Lee C. E., Sonne P., Grove T. Trump's Rapid Rapprochement Plans With Russia Fade // The Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2017, - URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-rapid- rapprochement-plans-with-russia-fade-1490831072. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

References

1. Armacost M. H. Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections. - New York: Columbia University Press, 2015, - 288 p.

2. The Next Commander in Chief See where Donald Trump wants to take U.S. foreign policy // Council on Foreign Relations, - URL: http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/.(Accessed 09.04.2017)

3. Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views // The New York Times, March 26, 2016, - URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald- trump-transcript.html?_r=1. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

4. The Next Commander in Chief See where Donald Trump wants to take U.S. foreign policy // Council on Foreign Relations, - URL: http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

5. Trump on Putin, Russia in Syria: `If He Wants to Fight ISIS, Let Him Fight ISIS' // Fox News, September 29, 2015, - URL: http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/09/29/donald-trump-putin- russia-syria-if-he-wants-fight-isis-let-him-fight-isis. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

6. Emmott R., Wroughton L. Tillerson to meet NATO on March 31, ending no-show furor // Reuters, March 24, 2017, - URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson-nato- idUSKBN16V1T0. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

7. Trump to attend NATO summit in May, White House says, - URL: http://www.heraldnet. com/news/trump-to-attend-nato-summit-in-may-white-house-says/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

8. Former U.S. Ambassador Criticizes Trump's Framing Of How NATO Works // NPR, March 20, 2017, - URL: http://www.npr.org/2017/03/20/520862721/former-u-s-ambassador- criticizes-trumps-framing-of-how-nato-works (Accessed 09.04.2017)

9. Dewan A. Russia: The problem Trump can't escape // CNN, March 13, 2017, - URL: http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/trump-russia-issues/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

10. Remarks by the Vice President at the Munich Security Conference // The White House, February 21, 2017 - URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/02/18/remarks- vice-president-munich-security-conference (Accessed 09.04.2017)

11. Fisher M., Peganha S. What the U.S. Gets for Defending Its Allies and Interests Abroad // The New York Times, January 16, 2017, - URL: https://www.nytimes.com/ interactive/2017/01/16/world/trump-military-role-treaties-allies-nato-asia-persian-gulf.html (Accessed 09.04.2017)

12. Gaouette N., Roth R. UN Ambassador Haley hits Russia hard on Ukraine // CNN, February 03, 2017, - URL: http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/02/politics/haley-russia-un/ (Accessed 09.04.2017)

13. Lee C. E., Sonne P., Grove T. Trump's Rapid Rapprochement Plans With Russia Fade // The Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2017, - URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-rapid- rapprochement-plans-with-russia-fade-1490831072. (Accessed 09.04.2017)

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