A high tide of the migrants’ flows to Europe: the root causes and political effects

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A high tide of the migrants' flows to Europe: the root causes and political effects

Cheslava Namoniuk

The scientific research aligns the most prevailing motives and the most probable political outcomes of the immense forced immigrants' flo w to the EU countries in 2015. The article is dedicated to the analysis of the EU policy towards the greatest migration crisis since the Second World War in Europe. The effect of the European Union's weak foreign policy concerning the cessation of the warfare in Syria and other countries of the Middle East is shown. The main reasons of Europe's political crisis in 2015 is investigated in the publication. The scientifi c work reveals all the key issues of the EU situation rescue and brings forward the prospective ways of the European Union geopolitical strategy changes. The conclusions concerning the need for preventing the global forced migration are made in the article, as the main reasons for people's displacement are the wars, revolutions and other events, which are followed by the political instability. The necessary recommendations towards avoiding of the EU reactive reply to the international development challenges are brought up in the research. A caution of diplomatic failure of the European Union in front of the aggressive states is made in the research.

Keywords: migration tide, refugees, displaced persons, political outcomes, the EU reactive policy.

european union political crisis

Намонюк Ч. Приплив міграційних потоків до Європи: першопричини та політичні наслідки

У науковому дослідженні викладено найбільш розповсюджені рушійні сили та найімовірніші політичні наслідки величезного напливу вимушених іммігрантів до країн ЄС у 2015 році. Стаття присвячена аналізу Європейської політики щодо найбільшої міграційної кризи в Європі з часів Другої світової війни. Продемонстровано вплив слабкої зовнішньої політики Євросоюзу стосовно припинення війни у Сирії та інших державах Близькосхідного регіону. У публікації досліджено основні причини Європейської політичної кризи 2015 року. У науковій роботі подано ключові моменти виходу ЄС із кризової ситуації та запропоновано перспективні шляхи змін у геополітичній стратегії Євросоюзу. У статті зроблено висновок щодо необхідності глобального попередження вимушеної міграції, оскільки основними причинами переміщення осіб є війни, революції та інші події, що зумовлюють політичну нестабільність. Розроблено необхідні рекомендації щодо уникнення пасивної відповіді на виклики з боку міжнародної ситуації. У дослідженні висловлено застереження про можливість дипломатичної поразки Європейського Союзу у випадку протиставлення своєї позиції агресивним наддержавам.

Ключові слова: міграційний притік, біженці, переміщені особи, політичні наслідки, пасивна політика ЄС.

Намонюк Ч. Приток миграционных потоков в Европу: первопричины и политические последствия.

В научном исследовании изложены наиболее распространенные мотивы и наиболее вероятные политические последствия огромного притока вынужденных иммигрантов в страны ЕС в 2015 году. Статья посвящена анализу Европейской политики касательно наибольшего миграционного кризиса в Европе со времен Второй мировой войны. Продемонстрировано влияние слабой внешней политики Евросоюза по отношению прекращения войны в Сирии и других странах Ближнего Востока. В публикации исследовано основные причины Европейского политического кризиса 2015 года. В научной работе предоставлены ключевые моменты выхода ЕС из кризиса и предложено перспективные способы изменения геополитической стратегии Евросоюза. В статье сделан вывод о необходимости глобального предупреждения вынужденной миграции, поскольку основными причинами перемещения людей являются войны, революции и другие события, несущие за собой политическую нестабильность. Разработано необходимые рекомендации касательно избегания пассивного ответа на вызовы со стороны международной ситуации. В исследовании высказано предупреждение о возможности дипломатического поражения Европейского Союза в случае противопоставления своей позиции агрессивным государствам.

Ключевые слова: миграционный приток, беженцы, перемещенные лица, политические последствия, пассивная политика ЕС.

Stating of the problem.The migration crisis caused by refugee flows from the regions seized by wars and conflicts in many countries is spread on European Union, which tries to avoid the amounts of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers. Those measures, taken by the main EU governments are still not enough. A great threat of the Union disintegration and Schengen area downfall maintains because of the opposite pivotal views of the member states concerning the conducting of migration policy.

Analysis of research and publications. The issues of migration in contemporary politics were explored by such authors as S. Sassen [8] and J. Hollifield [3]. The European migration issues and the immigrant integration policy was widely investigated by E. Collett [1].

Among the prominent Ukrainian authors, who first inquired into the up-to-date problems of illegal migration prevention and investigated the experience of the international community, as well as the discreet countries, was Yurii Rymarenko.

The challenge for human rights, caused by the global migration crisis was studied by E. Macdonald [4]. The past and the future of migration processes in the European Union was described by M.K. Tolstanov [9].

The article aims to disclose the prime causes of all the main problems, treated by the EU states in connection with the threat of the unity loss because of the different views towards the refugees' problem solving.

The main statement. Yet, the EU policies based mainly on interdiction are doomed to failure. The building of border fences to stop the overland flow via Turkey and the Balkans cannot be really effective, as the migrants find new ways of getting into Europe.

The year 2015 may be remembered as a turning point in the history of both migration to Europe and European integration. There was a further rise in mixed inflows of migrants and refugees, with a diversification of the routes employed - in particular, a surge in transits across the Eastern Mediterranean and the Western Balkans. Secondly, the already dynamic map of political reactions and policy responses entered a phase of hectic and deep change, due primarily to a major shift in the position of Germany [6].

The current migrant tide has put a spotlight on how domestic politics of individual European countries could undermine the importance for a fair and thorough debate. Because of the rise of anti-immigrant, extreme right parties in Europe migration has become a subject of political bickering in almost every EU country. There is clearly no silver bullet solution, neither is the one size fits all approach likely to work.

Support for proposals to welcome more migrants carry high political risks and are often considered as no-no. The established patterns portraying migrants as a burden for a welfare system or prone to criminal activities are hard to break.

But with the massive unrest in a number of countries, with a rise of conflicts and dysfunctional states the number of migrants is set to rise. Whereas governments in Europe are grappling with the successive wave of migrants and refugees, the number of forcibly displaced persons worldwide reached an all time high already in 2014, according to the UNCHR. The world seems to enter into the age of global migration. If so, than the problem would require a global response. First and foremost the deteriorating situation in the Arab world and the Middle East need to be addressed by the whole international community. Europe should take a leading role in setting the stage for a major international conference (involving all parties with a stake in the conflict) on resolutions for the crisis in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. Moreover, all major powers should share responsibility for the plight of refugees, whose numbers are almost equal to those after the Second World War. Countries in the region which shelter the majority of refugees due to their geographical proximity need to be supported by the developed countries with financial, technical humanitarian and other necessary support.

Resettlement policies and schemes need to be discussed by the EU and its partners, notably the US and Canada, which both have longer tradition and experience in this regard. The UN and the Security Council should be mobilised in finding a way to set up a global regime for protection.

Migration movements are a phenomenon of the new era and the panoply of reasons for future movements have only begun to emerge. If forecasts of climate experts turn out to be right, the number of refugees in future will rise due to climate change and the loss of habitat.

The world needs a framework for global migration governance.

Inaction means no more and no less than moral and political failure to address one of the most pressing issues of our time [2].

Europeans often appear reactive to international developments and, overall, divided in their response. In Syria, Europeans seem completely paralysed and unable to offer a real diplomatic solution.

EU Member States have different foreign policy priorities, some looking eastward while others look southward. The lack of consensus or coordination usually slows down or weakens Europe's position. Furthermore, Europe's declining resources and capabilities increasingly limit the scope for action. As a result, Europe's foreign policy is approximative. But approximation does not pay off in international relations.

The changing global order requires a strong European response. Recent events suggest that there is room for improvement. The EU's level of ambition stays unknown. There is a question, how to redefine the Union's strategic and economic role in `booming' Asia - in the various meanings of the word `booming', if the EU aims for `global power'. The EU's vision for the global order is changeable, and the formation still has no idea how to pursue it. Simply promoting `effective multilateralism' may not suffice if the multilateral system is undermined or reshaped by others. There is no respond to the emergence of new powers and to their distinct diplomatic strategies. Obviously, the EU cannot be a `strategic partner' with all of them, given their diverging long term ambition and competing interests. The Member States are looking for their best contribution problem resolution. These are some of the many questions that require one single answer, not 28. The EU's current reflection on a new global strategy could be a step forward, but more will be needed - and quickly, because the world is moving, with or without Europe [7].

Conclusion

The migration tide in 2015 is comparable to that after the Second World War. The number of refugees and asylum seekers targeted towards the European Union continues to daze all the politicians inside the EU. As a result of the rising quantity of political refugees from the belligerent states to the European Union there is a steady trend of the radical organizations and parties support in most countries of the EU. It carries high political risks and is often considered as a reactive reply to the international development. The European powers seem to be completely paralysed and unable to offer a real diplomatic solution to the migration challenges. The purpose to become a «global power» has to stimulate the Member States towards a new global strategy development including the overcoming of global forced migration problems.

Джерела та література

Collett E. The Asylum Crisis in Europe: Designed Dysfunction. 2015. - Available at: http://www. migrationpolicy.org/news/asylum-crisis-europe-designed-dysfunction

Helldorff J. The EU Migration Dilemma [Electronic source] / Heinrich Boll Stiftung. European Union. - 03 September 2015. - Available at: https://eu.boell.org/en/2015/09/03/eu-migration-dilemma

Hollifield J. The Politics of International Migration: How Can We «Bring the State Back In» / J. Hollifield // Migration Theory: Talking across Disciplines / Ed. By C. Bretell, J. Hollifield. - N.Y.: Routledge, 2000. - P 137-186.

Macdonald E. International Migration Law: Developing Paradigms and Key Challenges / Ed. by R. Cholewinski, R. Perruchoud. - The Hague: T.M.C. Asser Press, 2007. - 530 p.

Міграційні процеси в сучасному світі: світовий, регіональний та національний виміри: (Понятійний апарат, концептуальні підходи, теорія практика): Енциклопедія / Упоряд. Ю.І. Римаренко; За ред. Ю. Римаренка. - К.: Довіра, 1998. - 912 с.

Pastore F. The next big European project? The migration and asylum crisis: a vital challenge for the EU / F. Pastore // Policy Brief. - Norwegian Institute of International Affairs [NUPI], 2015, no. 25. Available at: http://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/301101/3/NUPI_Policy_Brief_25_15_Pastore.pdf

Renard T. Aggressive, Assertive and A Approximative: how Russia, China and Europe adapt to the changing global order [Electronic source] / Reshaping Europe. - 10 November 2015. - Available at: http://reshaping- europe.boellblog.org/2015/11/10/aggressive-assertive-and-approximative-how-russia-china-and-europe-adapt-to-the- changing-global-order/

Sassen S. The de facto Transnationalizing of Immigration Policy / S. Sassen // Challenge to the nationstate: Immigration in the Western Europe a. the U.S. / Ed. by Joppke Chr. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press, 1998. - P. 50-85.

Толстанов М.К. Міграційні процеси в Європейському Союзі: минуле та сучасне / М.К. Толстанова // Стратегічна панорама: Щоквартальний науково-практичний журнал РНБОУ - К.: Академпрес, 2005. - № 3. - С. 18-21.

References

Collett E. The Asylum Crisis in Europe: Designed Dysfunction. 2015. - Available at: http://www. migrationpolicy.org/news/asylum-crisis-europe-designed-dysfunction

Helldorff J. The EU Migration Dilemma [Electronic source] / Heinrich Boll Stiftung. European Union. - 03 September 2015. - Available at: https://eu.boell.org/en/2015/09/03/eu-migration-dilemma

Hollifield J. The Politics of International Migration: How Can We «Bring the State Back In» / J. Hollifield // Migration Theory: Talking across Disciplines / Ed. By C. Bretell, J. Hollifield. - N.Y.: Routledge, 2000. - P. 137-186.

Macdonald E. International Migration Law: Developing Paradigms and Key Challenges / Ed. by

R. Cholewinski, R. Perruchoud. - The Hague: T.M.C. Asser Press, 2007. - 530 p.

Mіgracіjnі procesi v suchasnomu svltl: svhovij, regional'nij ta nadonal'nij vimlri: (Ponjatijnij aparat, konceptual'nl pidhodi, teorija praktika): Enciklopedya / Uporjad. Ju.!. Rimarenko; Za red. Ju. Rimarenka. - K.: Dowa. 1998. - 912 s.

Pastore F. The next big European project? The migration and asylum crisis: a vital challenge for the EU / F. Pastore // Policy Brief. - Norwegian Institute of International Affairs [NUPI], 2015, no. 25. Available at: http://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/301101/3/NUPI_Policy_Brief_25_15_Pastore.pdf

Renard T. Aggressive, Assertive and A Approximative: how Russia, China and Europe adapt to the changing global order [Electronic source] / Reshaping Europe. - 10 November 2015. - Available at: http://reshaping- europe.boellblog.org/2015/11/10/aggressive-assertive-and-approximative-how-russia-china-and-europe-adapt-to-the- changing-global-order/

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Tolstanov M.K. Migracijni procesi v Єvropejs'komu Sojuzr minule ta suchasne / M.K. Tolstanova // Strategkhna panorama: Shhokvartal'nij naukovo-praktichnij zhurnal RNBOU. - K.: Akadempres, 2005. - № 3. -S. 18-21.

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