Hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and forced migrationas its consequence

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Hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and forced migrationas its consequence

Kozlovska L.V.

Candidate of Political Sciences,

Professor of the Navy Institute National University “Odesa Maritime Academy”

Voropai S.V.

Lieutenant, Head of the International Military Cooperation Group, Navy Institute National University “Odesa Maritime Academy”

Abstract

The article examines the hybrid war between russia and Ukraine in 2022-2023 and the forced migration of internally displaced persons as a result of it. The goal is to consider forced migration as a consequence of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and the hybrid war itself, which led to the forced migration of Ukrainians - the object of the study. The subject of scientific research is the specified regularities of the formation and flow of the processes of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023, which led to the forced migration of Ukrainians. To analyze the concepts of “hybrid war” and “migration” with clarification regarding the forced abandonment of the place of residence in conditions of war and resettlement to safer areas of residence in the middle of the country, which involved the introduction of the term “internally displaced persons”. The russian hybrid threat is characterized as a danger to Ukrainian society that causes forced population migration. Efforts were made to highlight forced migration as a consequence of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and the hybrid war itself, which led to the forced migration of Ukrainians. The results of an empirical study are presented, which show the variability of the survival of internally displaced persons who were forced to leave their places ofpermanent residence as a result of the negative consequences of the war. It is noted that the theoretical and practical significance of the obtained results of scientific research lies in the study of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and forced migration as its consequence. It is indicated that the obtained results can become the basis for the further solution of urgent theoretical and practical problems arising under the conditions of waging a hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023. This will make it possible to qualitatively apply the achievements of scientific thought in solving today's problems and determine ways to solve them for specific practical needs, when several million Ukrainians in the conditions of a hybrid war with russia were forced to leave their homes and become internally displaced persons with new questions and issues of survival.

Key words: hybrid war, forced migration, internally displaced persons.

Анотація

Козловська Л.В., Воропай С.В. ГІБРИДНА ВІЙНА В УКРАЇНІ У 2022-2023 РОКАХ І ВИМУШЕНА МІГРАЦІЯ ЯК ЇЇ НАСЛІДОК

У статті розглядається гібридна війна Росії проти України 2022-2023 років і вимушена мігра-ція внутрішньо переміщених осіб як її наслідок. Поставлена мета - розглянути вимушену міграцію як наслідок гібридної війни в Україні 2022-2023 років і саму гібридну війну, що призвела до вимушеної міграції українців - об'єкта дослідження. Предметом наукового пошуку зазначені закономірності становлення та перебігу процесів гібридної війни в Україні 2022-2023 років, яка призвела до вимушеної міграції українців. Аналіз понять «гібридна війна» та «міграція» з уточненням щодо вимушеного залишення місця проживання в умовах війни та переселення на більш безпечні території проживання в середині країни, що передбачало введення терміна «внутрішньо переміщені особи». Охарактеризована російська гібридна загроза як небезпека українського суспільства, що спричиняє вимушену міграцію населення. Зроблені намагання висвітлити вимушену міграцію як наслідок гібридної війни в Україні 2022-2023 років, саму гібридну війну, що призвела до вимушеної міграції українців. Представлено результати емпіричного дослідження, у якому показана варіативність виживання внутрішньо переміщених осіб, вимушених залишити місця свого постійного проживання через негативні наслідки війни. Зазначено, що теоретичне та практичне значення одержаних результатів наукового пошуку полягає в дослідженні гібридної війни в Україні 2022-2023 років та вимушеної міграції як її наслідку. Зазначено, що отримані результати можуть стати основою для подальшого розв'язання нагальних теоретичних і практичних проблем, що постають за умов ведення гібридної війни в Україні 2022-2023 років. Це дозволить якісно застосувати надбання наукової думки у вирішенні завдань сьогодення, визначити шляхи їх вирішення для конкретних практичних потреб, коли кілька мільйонів українців в умовах гібридної війни з Росією були вимушені покинути свої домівки та перетворитись на внутрішньо переміщених осіб із новими запитами та питаннями виживання.

Ключові слова: гібридна війна, вимушена міграція, внутрішньо переміщені особи.

Introduction

hybrid war forced migrationas

Russia's treacherous attack on Ukraine, under the fictitious slogans of a special operation “to liberate the Ukrainian people from Nazism” without the Ukrainian people themselves making such a request to the neighboring country in February 2022, opened a new page in world military and political science. Under such conditions, military science began to consider war as multidimensional, which led to the deepening of theoretical research on hybrid warfare. Political science has focused its research on political objects, institutions and processes that arise in the course of hybrid warfare. This study provides consideration of one of the consequences of russia's hybrid war against Ukraine in 2022-2023 - the forced migration of Ukrainians as internally displaced persons during russian aggression. We do not consider the emigration of Ukrainians abroad under such conditions, as it is the subject of a separate study.

Formulation of the problem

Let us theoretically consider the concept of hybrid war and internal migration as its consequence. Hybrid war involves military actions that combine military, quasi-military, diplomatic, informational, economic and other means to achieve strategic political goals. Each of the military and non-military methods of conducting a hybrid conflict is used for military purposes and is used as a weapon. All other non-military means of conducting hybrid warfare are used in the role of weapons that inflict various levels of damage on enemy systems. The consequences of such means of warfare are the impossibility of the population to live in their homes, which are destroyed by the enemy. Accordingly, there is a forced migration of the population, which acquires the status of internally displaced persons.

Analysis of recent research and publications

The study of concepts of war is disclosed in the works of K. Clausewitz [8], T. Hobbs [4], H. Isserson [7] etc. G. Pocheptsov [14] examines information wars and information- psychological operations, which today are integral components of hybrid warfare. Horbulin V and colleagues consider the Ukrainian angle of the global hybrid war [15]. T. Andrievsky investigates hybrid war as a specific type of hybrid conflict [1]. O. Bezruk examines the political mobilization of Ukrainian society in the conditions of a hybrid war [2]. The researches of political scientists L. Kovalska [9], E. Magda [10], O. Malinovska [11] emphasize the migration processes in Ukraine in the conditions of russia's hybrid war against Ukraine. Since these studies do not focus on issues of migration as a consequence of russia's hybrid war against Ukraine in 2022-2023, it became necessary to focus the attention of scientific research on these issues, therefore the scientific novelty of the study is determined by the absence of thorough generalized works on the specified topic in Ukrainian science. The purpose of the research is to consider forced migration as a consequence of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and the hybrid war itself (in the specified period), which led to the forced migration of Ukrainians. Analysis of the study of the problem showed that in order to achieve the set goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: analyze the concepts of “forced migration” and “hybrid war”; characterize the russian hybrid threat that causes forced migration of Ukrainians. The object of the study is forced migration as a result of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023. The subject of scientific research reflects the regularities of the formation and flow of the processes of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023, which led to the forced migration of Ukrainians.

Presenting main material

The term hybrid warfare appeared in the US military environment, specifically in the Marine Corps. In the open literature, the term appears in 1998, when R. Volker defined it as the intersection of conventional war with special operations and traced its manifestations, starting with the US war for independence, and called for the application of this experience [14, p. 26]. F. Hoffman in 2007 gave the definition: “Hybrid wars combine a number of different modes of warfare, including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formation, terrorist acts, in particular, indiscriminate violence and coercion, criminal disorder” [5]. Such various violent actions lead to destabilization of the life of the local population on whose territory it occurs, which in turn leads to forced migration (relocation to safer territories) [9, p. 80]. Note that we are considering the movement of the population in the middle of the country. We leave the issue of population migration abroad under such conditions for another study. Since a hybrid war involves military actions that combine military, quasimilitary, diplomatic, informational, economic and other means to achieve strategic political goals, it creates instability and spontaneity in the life of society. And if diplomatic, informational, and economic means of waging hybrid warfare strain the political atmosphere, but physically pose little threat to people's lives, military and quasi-military means of waging hybrid warfare lead to tragedies and deaths among the population. This strengthens the trends and necessity of migration processes in the middle of the country [13]. Since each of the military and non-military methods of conducting a hybrid conflict is used for military purposes and is used as a weapon, its consequences are negative for the population, which leads to a large number of internally displaced persons - people who are forced to migrate to other territories, to save his life [11]. All military and non-military means of conducting hybrid warfare are used in the role of weapons that inflict various levels of damage on enemy systems (including the civilian population) [10, p. 111]. In such cases, the Geneva

Convention is rarely followed and only laws protecting internally displaced citizens from the country that is subject to aggression can apply. The tragic events of 2022-2023 for Ukraine showed the safety of the Ukrainian authorities in matters of country protection and the treachery and inadequacy of yesterday's neighbors, from whom no one expected an attack under the slogan of freeing Ukraine from itself through a special operation. Hybridity in the doctrine of V Gerasimova predicted. The emphasis of the methods of struggle used is shifting towards the widespread use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian and other nonmilitary measures, which are implemented with the involvement of the protest potential of the population. All this is complemented by military measures of a hidden nature, including through the implementation of information warfare tools and through the action of special operations forces. The transition to the open use of force, usually under the guise of peacekeeping and crisis management, is made only at some stage, mainly to achieve final success in the conflict. The miscalculation led russia to develop its own methods of hybrid warfare, which were soon used against Ukraine. In such conditions, the population of Ukraine became particularly vulnerable, and internally displaced persons in the middle of the country became a weapon of resistance to the enemy, as the desire for victory united the Ukrainian people and prevented the enemy's plans from being implemented. By launching a special operation in Ukraine, yesterday's neighbors - the rashists - sought to take advantage of the factors that work for a hybrid war: ethnic heterogeneity (population of a certain territory mainly by representatives of different ethnic groups), the presence of hidden historical grievances, the weakness of local civil societies, regional complexity. But they did not take into account the factor of the unity of the Ukrainian people in the conditions of the danger of losing Ukraine as a state and Motherland, which grew on the negative lessons of 2014, related to the corruption and venality of the higher echelons of the Ukrainian government of that period [1, p. 12]. According to Gerasimov's concept of hybrid war, the rashists began to carry out non-military asymmetric actions, information gathering, coordinated measures (moral and psychological, ideological, diplomatic, economic) as part of the plan to create a favorable context (political, economic, military) on the territory of Ukraine. The direction of this very scenario worked in 2014 and led to Ukraine losing part of its territorial integrity - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Some Ukrainians, not realizing the tragic nature of the events, helped them; over time, such pseudo-patriots of Ukraine turned into collaborators and traitors, for which they are now being held criminally liable. When such measures of the hybrid war of the rashists against Ukraine did not give the desired result, the higher military command of the enemy moved to the next stage of the hybrid war against Ukraine according to Gerasimov's theory - a special operation “to liberate Ukraine from Nazism”, although the Ukrainians did not ask the rashists for this. 2014 - the first stages of the special operation were aimed at misleading the political and military leaders of the state through coordinated measures through the use of diplomatic channels, the media, government and military structures, by throwing in distorted or false information, orders, directives, instructions, etc. This was followed by intimidation, misleading and bribery of state military and officials in order to force them to abandon their official duties. The next step is the use of destabilizing propaganda by the method of increasing the dissatisfaction of the population caused by the arrival of militant groups, increasing subversive work. 2022 - the auxiliary link was the establishment of a no-fly zone throughout the country, the introduction of a blockade, the use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed territorial formations. And if all the above did not work, the start of military operations was announced, which was immediately preceded by large-scale sabotage and intelligence operations, all types, forms, methods and forces were used, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic and secret intelligence services, industrial espionage. Everything was complemented by a combination of targeted information operations, electronic operations, aerospace activities, continuous pressure of the Air Force in combination with the use of high-precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, weapons based on new physical principles - including microwave ovens, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons). Further the suppression of other points of resistance and the destruction of enemy units by special operations with the participation of reconnaissance units and units expanding the clearing area until the final break of resistance was prolonged. Chernihiv, Bucha, Irpin, Gostomel, Mariupol, other cities and villages were almost completely destroyed by “pseudoliberators”. The attempts of the rashists to seize Kyiv and hold a victory parade on Khreschatyk with rashist soldiers dressed in full uniform in a few days are all terrible facts of the capture of Ukraine, which (as a result) led to mass migration of the population in order to escape from the enemy and move to safer territories in the country That is, the internal mixing of the population is a consequence of russia's hybrid war against Ukraine. Internally displaced persons of 2022-2023 are citizens of Ukraine who, due to racist aggression, were forced to move to relatively war-free territories for temporary residence in order to preserve their lives. This position contains peculiarities related to the conditions of martial law and the national selfidentity of Ukrainians as tolerant, sincere, benevolent, decent people, always ready to come to the aid of helpless, disadvantaged compatriots. The key to this was high-quality communication as a tool of hybrid warfare - both informational and technical, as well as everyday the level of territorial communities hosting displaced people of forced migration. On the other hand, internally displaced persons tried and are trying to create as little discomfort as possible to benevolent compatriots, trying to join the necessary affairs in the communities - places of their temporary residence. This involved openness and transparency of joint activities, sincerity in cooperation, a high level of morality and responsibility for compliance with agreements with partners - compatriots [13]. The stated provisions formed the basis of the research carried out by the sociological group of the Naval Institute of national university “Odesa maritime academy”, which included an anonymous express survey and a questionnaire survey of internal migration migrants and the local population of Western Ukrainian regions as the host of internally displaced persons from April to August 2022. The poll was conducted remotely under martial law. The option of family and friendly ties was used without the involvement of official authorities. The local population is aware of the inconveniences in everyday life, but believes in the victory of the Armed Forces and thus contributes to the overall victory. Internally displaced persons are forced to completely change their way of life, way of thinking, everyday habits and adapt to new living conditions. It is impossible to perceive the reality of aggression at any level, since the invaders do not have any moral and ethical and universal human guidelines and values. Therefore, the study traces the excessive gratitude of internally displaced persons to their host families and territorial communities, volunteers and just ordinary citizens, who helped in various ways and are helping to organize the social and everyday life of internally displaced persons of forced migration. According to the analysis of the received materials, 98 % of the interrogated internally displaced persons are grateful to the receiving party, 87 % of the population of the western Ukrainian regions do not regret the aid provided to the detriment of their own interests and are ready to provide it again if necessary, only to preserve Ukrainian statehood and its most important value - Ukrainian identity. 93% of respondents completely changed their attitude towards yesterday's “brothers from Russia”, which became one of the engines of goodwill and sympathy on the part of the host. 90 % of interviewed internally displaced persons who experienced the horrors of shelling and the destruction of their territorial communities (including their own homes) perceive people who provide assistance in the territory of internal displacement as the closest benevolent relatives, 100 % of those interviewed from both sides confirmed that they are doing and will do everything necessary at its level to speed up victory, 95 % of respondents understand that it is impossible to win without the help of Europe and America, 100 % of respondents admire the courage and professionalism of the Armed Forces, believe in victory and understand in whose hands peace and a more or less settled social - everyday life of internally displaced persons in the territory of Western Ukrainian regions. The conducted study showed the variability of the survival of internally displaced persons, who were forced to leave their places of permanent residence as a result of the negative consequences of the 2022-2023 hybrid war between russia and Ukraine.

Conclusions

In the process of working on the research material, we analyzed the concepts of “hybrid war” and “migration” with clarification regarding the forced abandonment of the place of residence in conditions of war and resettlement to safer areas of residence in the middle of the country, which involved the introduction of the term “internally displaced persons”. Based on the collected material, we tried to characterize the russian hybrid threat to the security of Ukrainian society, which causes the forced migration of Ukrainians. That is, efforts were made to highlight forced migration as a consequence of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and the hybrid war itself (in the specified period), which led to the forced migration of Ukrainians. The theoretical and practical significance of the obtained results of scientific research lies in the study of the hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023 and forced migration as its consequence. The obtained results can become the basis for further solving urgent theoretical and practical problems arising under the conditions of conducting a hybrid war in Ukraine in 2022-2023. This will make it possible to qualitatively apply the achievements of scientific thought in solving today's problems and determine ways to solve them for specific practical needs, when several million Ukrainians in the conditions of a hybrid war with russia were forced to leave their homes and become internally displaced persons with new questions and issues of survival. Each of the military and non-military methods of conducting hybrid warfare is used for military purposes and is used as a weapon, which has negative consequences for the population and leads to a large number of internally displaced persons - citizens who are forced to migrate to other territories in order to save their lives. The variability of the survival of internally displaced persons forced to leave their places of permanent residence as a result of the negative consequences of russia's 2022-2023 hybrid war against Ukraine gave the civilian population the opportunity to survive in the extreme conditions of the war and reveal the best universal human qualities: genetic Ukrainian kinship, tolerance, benevolence, mutual aid , sincerity, kindness. Solidarity in the hour of bad weather of russia's hybrid war against Ukraine in 2022-2023 confirmed that such a highly organized, collected and benevolent people can never be defeated. However, these generalizations require more in-depth research.

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