Region investment policy and its impact on the economic structure

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Region investment policy and its impact on the economic structure

Zh.T. Omar

A.T. Abdikarimova

Annotation

The article analyzes the investment activity of the Karaganda region as one of the industrially developed regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In the course of development in the region's economy, there were trends in changes in investment volumes, the share of industries in the GDP structure, investment policy and the quality of structure. The article attempts to analyze the pace of changes, assess the impact of investment activity on the formation of the regional gross product, as well as changes in the structure of the regional economy. The impact assessment of investments is also analyzed through the analysis of investments in fixed assets of enterprises. At the same time, it is indicated that despite the growth of investment in fixed assets, there is no adequate growth of regional GDP, which raises doubts about the effectiveness of this type of investment and its impact on the change in the structure of the economy.

The conclusion to which the authors are inclined is that the region needs to implement and invest in point-based projects, making changes at the regional level. This can significantly improve not only the economic but also the social situation of the Karaganda region, as well as significantly strengthen the main indicators of the economy and positively affect the change in the structure of the country's economy.

Keywords: investment policy; structure of the economy; GDP structure; regional policy; economy of the Karaganda region.

Аннотация

Ж.Т. Омар, А.Т. Абдикаримова. Инвестиционная политика региона и ее влияние на структуру экономики

В статье проводится анализ инвестиционной активности Карагандинской области как одного из индустриально развитых регионов Республики Казахстан. В ходе развития в экономике региона наблюдались тенденции изменения объемов инвестиций, доли отраслей в структуре ВВП, инвестиционной политики и качества структуры. В статье анализируются темпы изменений, оценивается влияние инвестиционной активности на формирование регионального валового продукта, а также изменение структуры региональной экономики. Оценка влияния инвестиций также рассматривается через анализ инвестиций в основной капитал предприятий. При этом указывается, что несмотря на рост инвестиций в основной капитал, адекватного роста регионального ВВП не наблюдается. Это вызывает сомнения в эффективности данного вида инвестиций и влияния на изменение структуры экономики.

Вывод, к которому склоняются авторы, заключается в том, что в регионе необходимы реализация и инвестирование точечных проектов. Осуществление преобразований на уровне регионов может существенно улучшить не только экономическое, но и социальное положение Карагандинской области, а также значительно укрепить основные показатели экономики, что положительно отразится на изменении структуры экономики страны.

Ключевые слова: инвестиционная политика; структура экономики; структура ВВП; региональная политика; экономика Карагандинской области.

Adequate investment finance to priority sectors is essential for achieving structural transformation. It helps enhance a virtuous circle of rapid productivity growth, more and better-paid jobs, higher household incomes and expanded markets - both at home and abroad - leading in turn to higher levels of investment, and thus helping to further boost productivity.

Improving the efficiency of investment management both at the national level and at the regional level is important for the implementation of economic processes in the country. Each region needs to consider the peculiarities of its geographical location, the development of economic sectors, labor resources, and the presence of mineral deposits. Consideration of these factors allows the regional authorities to prioritize the formation of the main directions of economic and investment development of the region [8].

The investment policy of the region is also a complex of decisions systematically adopted by the authorities regarding the directions, forms and methods of investment processes development in the region as part of the general strategy of the regional socioeconomic development.

The investment policy in each region has its own characteristics, which are caused by the following factors:

- a common strategy for socioeconomic development carried out in the region;

- the size of the available resource potential; geographic location;

- the region investment climate, etc. [2].

Karaganda region is the largest industrial region of Kazakhstan, a powerful industrial center, which occupies a leading position in Kazakhstan. The Karaganda region has a developed industrial economic complex, including ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, mining, chemical, light and food industries, engineering and metalworking, energy, construction materials, agriculture and many other industries. In order to enhance the competitiveness of the region, work is underway in many areas, but the main ones are: work in the field of assistance to exporters, support for small business, helping to increase the region investment attractiveness and developing innovative potential [1].

Measures of GRP are generally used to promote a region's investment appeal or to promote the importance of the region to the national economy. Although other more direct measures exist, this measure is also sometimes used to approximate the disposable income of households in a region, and when disaggregated by industry, the `specialization' of regions and the role of various industries in each region.

The gross regional product of the Karaganda region, which is shown in table 1, has a positive trend over the past 6 years in millions of tenge, when the fluctuation of this indicator in millions of dollars is noticeable, due to the volatility of the dollar. In general, the growth of gross regional product may indicate economic growth in the region.

In 2014, industry accounted for 40,7% of the region's GRP, construction - 6,3%, agriculture, forestry and fisheries - 3,3%. In the structure of production of services, the share of wholesale and retail trade was 12,4%, transport and storage services - 9.3%, real estate services - 7,3%, other services - 14,5%. Compared with 2018, in the structure of the gross regional product 47,9% fell to the share of industry, 4,2% to construction, and 3,6% to agriculture. In the structure of production of services, the share of wholesale and retail trade; automobile and motorcycle repair amounted to 12,1%, service industries - 12,9%, transport and storage - 6,8%. It follows that over the past 5 years, the share of industry continues to occupy the largest share in the structure of the GRP, and is still growing, occupying about 48% of the total GRP. The share of construction decreased by 2,1%, agriculture fluctuates, but remains stable. The share of manufacturing in the total GRP of the region is 32,1%, mining - 11,5%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning - 3,4%, water supply; sewer system, control over the collection and distribution of waste - 0,9%.

The basis of the regional economy is an industrial production. Enterprises of the Karaganda region produce 33,2% of coal, 27,6% of iron ore, 28,1% of copper ore mining, 100% of flat products, 83,3% of crude steel, 76% of refined copper, 33,3% - refined silver and 11,3% - refined gold [6].

Table 1

Dynamics of investments in fixed capital in the Karaganda region

As we can see from table 2, in 2018, investments in fixed capital, in the amount of 469,8 billion tenge were disbursed, the volume index was %. The second largest amount of investment in fixed capital of the Karaganda region was observed in 2014, which can be associated with the construction of the Zhezkazgan-Beineu railway line. In 2015 and 2016, the indicators decreased, but in 2017 it was possible to attract investments in the amount of 363,3 billion tenge [4].

Table 2

Dynamics of gross regional product in the Karaganda region

Last year, the volume of investments increased due to large projects in the region. This is the solar power plant of Saran LLP, the cathode copper production plant of «Sary-Arka Copper Processing» LLP, the steel and iron smelting plant of «Forever Flourishing (Middle Asia) Pty Ltd.», the second stage of the gold mining plant of «AK Altinalmas» JSC «and the first stage of the wholesale and distribution center of «Alfarukh» LLP [7].

In the structure of investments, the largest volume, as always, is directed to industry (68,9%), operations with real estate (9,5%), transport and warehousing (8,8%), agriculture (3%), wholesale and retail trade (2%), education (1,9%), healthcare and social services (1,7%). Sustainable economic growth is one of the important factors for attracting investment. Over the past 5 years, investments in the mining industry increased 2,2 times, in the manufacturing industry - by 18%.

According to table 3, the main source of financing over a 5 year period is the own funds of the Karaganda region, then the Republican budget and then all the other sources make their contribution. The proportion of the Republican budget is reduced every year, when as the proportion of the local budget and bank loans varies from year to year. The increase in own funds indicates the improvement of enterprises in the region, that they have sufficient funds to invest in themselves. As an example, the establishment of an agreement by the General Director of «ArcelorMittal Temirtau» JSC under the «Road Map 2020» program, which provides for investments in industry, coal and ore departments of «ArcelorMittal Temirtau» JSC for a total amount of 305 billion tenge for the period 2018-2020.

In 2018, the main source of financing investments in fixed assets was the enterprises' own funds - 73,1%, the share of budget funds amounted to 14,5%, borrowed funds - 10,3%, bank loans - 2%.

The indicated investment volume (470 billion tenge) is the largest indicator in the region over the past 25 years. In the region, 33 large new investment projects are being implemented in the amount of more than 1,0 trillion tenge with the creation of more than 9 thousand new jobs. Including with foreign capital 18 projects worth 1,4 trillion tenge and with the creation of 5,5 thousand new jobs in such areas as metallurgy, alternative energy, engineering, chemistry. Of the total number of ongoing projects in 2018, 8 projects were launched with a total value of more than 102 billion tenge and with the creation of about 1,8 thousand new jobs [3].

Table 3

Investments in fixed capital by sources of financing since 2014

From the picture 1 it is clear that investments in fixed assets mostly consist and depend on private and foreign ownership investments. For example, in 2014 private ownership investments took 62% of all the amount of investments in fixed assets, whereas state investments took only 10%. And we can see that the same trend is visible through the years. Which means that private sector is more concerned about socioeconomic development of Karaganda region. Also the fact that the amount of foreign investment exceeds the amount of state investment three times, consolidates an inefficient economic structure.

One of the key tools to stimulate the economy of the Karaganda region was participation in the State program of industrial and innovative development. The program mainly focuses on the development of the manufacturing industry, when Karaganda region exactly specializes in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, the production of chemicals for industry, the production of machinery for the mining sector, electrical equipment, construction materials, and food products.

Picture 1. Investments in fixed assets by type of investors ownership over the past 5 years

investment kraganda region structure economy

As it is shown in picture 2, among the regions in terms of investment in the manufacturing sector in 2018, the leaders are: Shymkent (442.3 billion tenge or 35,5% of investments in the manufacturing sector of the country), Pavlodar (134,9 billion tenge or 10,8%) and Karaganda (127,9 billion tenge or 10,3%) regions. The lowest contribution to the country's manufacturing sector is made by the enterprises of Mangystau (6,5 billion tenge or 0,5%) and Kostanay (15,4 billion tenge or 1,2%) and North Kazakhstan (16,6 billion tenge or 1,3%) areas.

Picture 2. Structure of investments in fixed assets of manufacturing industry by regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2018, %

Source. SC of the MNE of the Republic of Kazakhstan

According to the information of the regional department of industry and industrial and innovative development among the regions, the main contribution to the processed export of the country is provided by the Karaganda and Pavlodar regions. The structure of exports is dominated by metallurgy products (flat rolled products, refined copper, silver, cast iron), as well as products from the chemical industry (carbide, metallurgical silicon, styrene polymers, light industry, including work clothes, building industry (plastic pipes and fittings, belts drive from rubber, slag) and mechanical engineering (cable-conductor and telecommunication products).

From the table 4 we can see the uneven distribution of investments in fixed assets by sectors of the economy: low funding for construction, an average of 0,9% during 2014-2018; and literally for all other industries, except mining and quarrying, manufacturing industry, transport and storage and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning. Despite the fact that the share of transport and storage is significant, compared with the non- mentioned sectors, it should be noted a decrease in investments in this industry from 28,6% in 2014 to 8,8% in 2018. Indisputable leaders in the distribution of investments in fixed assets are such industries as mining and quarrying and manufacturing industry, occupying half of the share of the total investments in fixed assets.

This is explained by the fact that the Karaganda region has been specializing in mining and manufacturing industries for many decades, which in total account for 47.9% of the total GRP. It follows that the structural changes that took place in the country did not significantly change the structure of the region's economy. Also, the investment strategy of the country and the region did not affect the structure of the region. All this indicates the lack of modernization of fixed assets and technologies.

Table 4

Investments in fixed capital by areas of use

In terms of gross regional product - a general indicator characterizing the socioeconomic development of the region as a whole, the Karaganda region almost every year, over the past 5 years, takes 4 place after the cities of republican significance and Atyrau region. In 2018, the volume of GRP of the Karaganda region amounted to 4,407.7 billion tenge, or 7,4% of the gross domestic product of the republic. In the republic, the Karaganda region also takes 4th place after the cities of Almaty (20,6%), Astana (9,8%) and Atyrau region (13,2%). Per capita gross regional product in the region amounted to 3 195.1 thousand tenge (in the republic - 3 261.8 thousand tenge). This is the 7th place in the Republic.

The volume of investments in fixed capital in 2013 amounted to 405 billion tenge, or 118,2% compared to last year. The main source of financing of investments in fixed capital was the own funds of enterprises - 58%. In 2014, an increase in investments in fixed capital was also noticeable; 411,9 billion tenge was disbursed, which amounted to 96,6% compared to last year. In the structure of investments in fixed capital by areas of use, the largest volume is concentrated in industry - 53,6%, transport and storage - 28%. The main source of financing investment in fixed assets was the own funds of enterprises - 66%.

Further 2015 and 2016 were accompanied by a decline in investment in fixed assets. But after a gradual decline, it was possible to reverse the negative trends. So, in 2017, investments growth is visible again - 363 billion tenge, and in 2018 amounted to 4 698 billion tenge.

The picture 3 shows the dynamics of the growth rate of GRP and investments in fixed capital from 2013 to 2018. In general, over the past 6 years, the indicators of GRP and investment in fixed assets have remained positive. Almost every year, both GRP and investments increased, with the exception of 2015 and 2016. However, despite such a reduction in fixed capital investments, the region's GRP reached a high percentage of the growth rate in 2016.

Such growth in GRP is due to the active development of industry, including large backbone enterprises such as «ArcelorMittal Temirtau» JSC, «Kazakhmys Corporation» LLP and other large projects under the Industrialization Map. The rapid increase in investment in fixed assets in the last 2 years is associated with the emergence of various investment projects in the manufacturing and mining sectors.

Picture 4 illustrates the share of economic sectors in the region's GRP for the last 6 years. Throughout the analyzed period, industry occupies a large share among all sectors in the region's GRP. In 2018, the industry share reached 47,9%. Whereas agriculture took only 3,6%, education and healthcare share where so small that were included in item other services, which in total took 25,4%. That again confirms inefficiency of region structural and investment policy, which is mainly aimed at industrial sector.

Picture 3. The dynamics of the growth rate of GRP and investments in fixed capital over the past 6 years

Attracting investment always has a positive effect on the economy. However, one must take into account the influence of external factors on investment activity and the current macroeconomic situation in the country. Existing investment nature problems can and should be solved by a developed system of supporting investment activity at the regional level. The progressive development of the region cannot be imagined without a clearly defined, meaningful and adapted to regional conditions strategy. In order to ensure conditions for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Karaganda region and improve the quality of life by attracting domestic and foreign investment in the region, a Strategy for attracting investment of the Karaganda region for 2017-2021 was developed and presented.

Picture 4. The share of economic sectors in the region's GRP for 2013-2018, %

Presently, one of the growth points of the economy of the Karaganda region is the special economic zone «Saryarka». In 2018, 15 participants were already registered on the territory of the SEZ «Saryarka». Till today special economic zone participants invested 89,8 billion tenge in projects, produced products worth 68,7 billion tenge, created 842 jobs. SEZ infrastructure facilities put into operation successfully provide infrastructure services (electricity, railway services) to the existing participants. At the moment, the number of ongoing projects is 24, 38 implemented and 72 open projects for investments.

In addition to the «Saryarka» SEZ, the «Atameken» Regional Chamber of Entrepreneurs makes a significant contribution to the development of export-oriented projects. The Chamber's activities are aimed at improving the business, investment climate and stability, developing the conditions for doing business in the region. NCE «Atameken» is the operator of the state program to assist exporters, which provides for reimbursement of costs to the subjects of industrial and innovative activities that produce domestic processed goods. Reimbursed costs associated with advertising products, participation in foreign exhibitions, fairs and festivals, as well as the development and distribution of advertising catalogs. Among other things, businessmen are compensated for a part of the amount for the maintenance of a representative office, outlet or warehouse abroad, by conducting procedures for the registration of trademarks and product certification.

Since 2018, the «Atameken» Business Chamber has begun analyzing foreign markets at the request of exporters. Now, potential exporters will be able to receive relevant information about which countries are interested in Kazakhstan products and which one. In addition, a business can predict: what products are profitable to produce in the near future. Moreover, the information will be available both in the context of the regions of Kazakhstan, and at the level of other countries.

It should also be noted that, in order to increase investment attractiveness of the Republic of Kazakhstan and stimulate investments into the national economy, Kazakh Invest National Company JSC in collaboration with Deloitte and PwC has prepared investment proposals for 73 niche projects in various priority sectors of the national economy [5].

Undoubtedly, the investment attractiveness of the regions is one of the key factors for the stability of the economy of the whole country. Therefore, investing in such projects of various industries can significantly improve not only the economic, but also the social situation of the Karaganda region, which can significantly strengthen the main indicators of the country's economy. The convenient geographical location of the region is undoubtedly one of the advantages for potential investors. In addition, the investor service center, which has been operating since 2012, helps in the search and attraction of both domestic and foreign capital, informs about investment opportunities, and provides investors with service support at the regional level. Thus, investors receive project support from the beginning to the commissioning.

Support mechanisms under the «Business Roadmap - 2020» program are also actively used, in particular, subsidizing interest rates and

bringing infrastructure at the expense of the state. In addition, as part of the implementation of projects, investors can conclude an investment contract with the Ministry of Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Concerning human resources, the region ranks first in the number of universities among regions and second place among all administrative units of the first level. The provision of educational services involved 8 universities, as well as 15 colleges, which train highly qualified specialists in various industries. The personnel of the Karaganda region are famous for their professionalism and are willingly hired throughout the country.

Despite the pronounced industrial orientation in economic specialization, the region also has the potential to develop the tourism industry, as another area for investment. Since the time of the Soviet Union, the largest enterprises of the country have been located in the Karaganda region, representing such basic industries as non-ferrous and ferrous metallurgy, engineering, construction, energy, and the coal industry. However, even after independence, the structural policy of the region, as well as of the whole country, was determined on the basis of the existing resource potential and has remained so to this day. Therefore, the investment policy of the region has been and still is mainly focused on these sectors, leaving others without due attention.

Nevertheless, the existing structural and investment policy of the region has been operating for many decades and shows its results. However, for the full development of the region and its entry to a new level, which means the improvement of the entire city and its revitalization, some adjustments to the investment policy should be made.

Therefore, the growth of investment attractiveness and the increase of investments in the renewal and modernization of fixed assets are the basis for observing the planned growth rates of the gross regional product and improving the quality of population life and the level of environmental protection. It is important to consider not only the total volume of investments, but also in which particular sectors investment flows were directed to and whether they were able to stimulate economic growth in these priority sectors and extend it further to the entire socioeconomic system.

References

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