The Perspectives of Russia’s Soft Power in the Western Balkans Region

Размещено на http://www.allbest.ru/

The Perspectives of Russia's Soft Power in the Western Balkans Region

A. Djokic

Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)

Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract

Перспективы мягкой силы России в регионе Западных Балкан

А. Джокич

Российский университет дружбы народов

Аннотация. В статье анализируются перспективы мягкой силы России на Балканах. Российская Федерация имеет давние исторические, политические, культурные и экономические связи с Балканским регионом. Поэтому, будучи свободной от одностороннего идеологического подхода, который препятствовал использованию мягкой силы СССР в эпоху холодной войны, Россия стоит перед выбором относительно того, как наилучшим образом использовать свой огромный потенциал для мирной дипломатии и влияния на Западных Балканах. В статье будет проведен анализ достижений Российской Федерации в области расширения ее влияния на Западных Балканах, а также недостатков ее внешней политики. Анализ будет охватывать несколько государств Западных Балкан и их связи с Россией с точки зрения мягкой силы: Сербию, Черногорию и Боснию и Герцеговину. В статье поднимается вопрос: сможет ли Россия выстоять в борьбе за влияние на Балканах с ее главными соперниками в регионе - США и ЕС? Автор приходит к выводу, что во многом это зависит от различных подходов и методов, используемых российской дипломатией, и уровня финансирования проектов, которые могут быть использованы для расширения культурного влияния России на Балканском полуострове.

Ключевые слова: Россия, Балканы, мягкая сила, влияние, дипломатия, сотрудничество

Serbia and Russia are thought to be longstanding allies and partners. Their historical ties stretch back to the early Middle Ages, when both the Serbian and Russian nations adopted Orthodox Christianity as their religion. Cultural exchange between medieval Serbia and Russia was very developed up to the 15th century, when Serbia was conquered by the Ottoman Turks. Up to this point, Serbia mainly influenced Russia, and not the other way around, owning it's cultural influence to the proximity of the then most developed country in Europe - the Byzantine Empire. After this period, however, Russia became the dominant political and cultural force amongst the Orthodox Christian world and it's influence started to spread to the Balkans, including Serbia. This is highly noticeable beginning from the 18th century, reaching it's height in the early 20th century which saw the breakout of the First World War.

In Serbian historical literature and political discourse, the definition of Serbs as “little Russians” from the Western point of view is predominant [7]. This term appeared in British diplomacy in the second half of the 19th century and has since then found a firm footing in Serbian political discourse. This term implies, that no matter what, the Western countries will always regard Serbs as actors of influence on behalf of Russia. This sort of deterministic thinking is obviously flawed, but nonetheless it emphasizes Russia's predominant role in the collective mindset of the Serbian nation. This bodes well for Russia's soft power, as it is far more easily spread than that of the United States and the EU. Russia's diplomatic aid in the political struggle for Serbia to retain the control of the semi-independent province of Kosovo is surely one of the greatest factors of support towards Russia among Serbia's general population. These claims are backed by an independent survey of public opinion in Serbia done in the summer of 2019, which found that there were 60,7% of Serbian citizens who were in favor of an alliance with Russia, while 47,1% were supportive of joining the EU, and only 8,9% supported joining the NATO alliance¹.

Further adding to the aspect of historical ties between Serbia and Russia, there is great potential in developing Russia's influence through the shared experience of both world wars. It is important to note that Russia and Serbia have been allies in both world wars, and the Serbian nation as a whole views Russian actions in these conflicts as highly positive. While revisionist tendencies in regards to Russia's role in the Second World War are highly noticeable, even the European Parliament openly accused the USSR of having a hand in starting the World War II NSPM Public Opinion Poll, Autumn of 2019. URL: http://www.nspm.rs/istrazivanja-javnog- mnjenja/srbija-jesen-2019.-igre-prestola-i-bojkota.html (accessed: 28.02.2020). European Parliament resolution on the 80th anniversary of the start of the Second World War and the importance of European remembrance for the future of Europe. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/ doceo/document/B-9-2019-0098_EN.html (accessed: 28.02.2020)., such notions are unpopular in Serbia's political discourse. Russian diplomacy is already achieving certain successes in this field through the organization of “Immortal Regiment” marches In 2019 «Immortal Regiment” marches in Serbia were introduced as an official celebration of Victory Day on 9^th of May, and they received formal state backing. Such marches were organized in many regional towns in Serbia and neighboring Bosnian province of Republic of Srpska.. Such marches attract a great amount of attention in Serbia amongst the population and the leading media. They are held parallelly with the ones in Russia on Victory Day, on the 9^th of May each year.

It is worth nothing that the First World War plays a crucial role in Serbian collective memory. This is namely because the Second World War saw the eleven- day collapse of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, and a bloody civil war that ensued between the monarchists, the communists, and the various national separatist movements. Just as the First World War is easily forgotten in Russia for the same reasons, such is the case in Serbia with the Second World War. Thus, concluding the analysis of historical ties between Serbia and Russia in light of Russia's soft power, it is advisable that Russia develops historical and cultural projects in Serbia similar to the “Immortal Regiment”, only with the emphasis on the First World War and the great aid that Serbia received from Russia at the time. This will also connect Serbia's and Russia's history prior to the February and October revolutions, which is in the Serbian collective memory often indiscriminately considered the golden era.

The short conclusion for Russia's soft power in Serbia concerning the aspect of historical ties is that the Russian Federation is highly active in this aspect and needs only to add certain desirable content to it's already successful policies.

In regards to the cultural ties it was already mentioned that the majority of Serbia's population as well as the majority of Russia's population share the same religious faith. Serbian and Russian nation also speak Slavic languages, which are for the most part intelligible (according to some studies Russian and Serbian are 40% intelligible Lindsay R. Mutual Intelligibility of Languages in the Slavic Family. URL: https://www.academia.edu/ 4080349/Mutual_Intelhgibihty_of_Languages_in_the_Slavic_Family (accessed: 28.02.2020).). Having common collective identities makes sharing Russian influence and soft power in Serbia much easier. The Serbian language uses both Cyrillic and Latin alphabets however, opening the gateway to Western influence as well. As both Serbian and Russian nations are based upon cultural ties between individuals, sharing a mutual Slavic identity is an important part of Russia's soft power in Serbia and other Slavic Balkan countries.

While we do not claim that countries that do not share mutual cultural ties necessarily have a lesser chance of spreading soft power (for example Japanese or South Korean soft power spread in countries they have zero cultural ties to), we may put forward a following clarification: soft power is spread more easily if strong cultural ties exist between the two countries, also soft power is hampered if weak cultural ties exist.

Educational ties between Russia and Serbia are getting stronger, but a significantly larger number of Serbian students attend Western universities than they do Russian (there are approximately 400 Serbian students in Russia, while there are around 2000 Serbian students in Germany alone Organization of Serbian Students Abroad (OSSI). URL: https://www.ossi.rs/index.php (ac

cessed: 28.02.2020).). The Russian government has several ongoing projects for attracting Serbian students, but they are all centralized through the Rossotrudnichestvo office in Belgrade. This kind of system makes it hard to properly present the advantages of studying in Russia such as the opportunity to study in prestigious universities in a wide array of scientific areas (for example, there is by far more competition to receive a scholarship from a prestigious German university of the same level). There are several reasons why the Western universities are more attractive than Russian and some of them are not connected with soft power at all, such as: better job opportunities in highly developed Western countries, better standard of living while studying, better facilities for academic work.

On the other hand, Russia can make it's educational system more attractive for Serbian students. That is possible by changing the structure of representation of studying in Russia. Instead of highly centralized cultural centers tied to one ministry, Russia should start to develop a network of non-governmental organizations with the aim to provide Serbian students a chance for internship, and even job opportunities in the long-term perspective. This, of course, demands more investment on the side of the Russian government, but this approach has brought great success to Germany, with it's own NGO network tied to different political parties. All of these German NGOs serve as actual recruitment centers for the best and most active Serbian students. This also proves that it needn't be the Russian state that has to be directly involved in financing these NGOs, it can also be the private sector.

The short conclusion for Russia's soft power in Serbia concerning the aspect of cultural ties is that the Russian Federation is mediocrely active and needs to restructure and expand it's approach.

With regards to media and communications, Russian influence practically seized to exist in the Balkans until the previous decade. There were no Russian media in Serbia, except for the radio program The Voice of Russia. There was a correspondent's office of the state-owned media agency ITAR TASS, that to this day operates on a skeleton crew. Before it's restructuring, another state-owned Russian media agency also employed regular correspondents in Belgrade - the Russian Information Agency (RIA).

In 2015 The Voice of Russia and RIA discontinued their activities in Serbia in favor of a new Russian state-owned media Sputnik. The Sputnik is not just a radio station, this media outlet also runs it's own website with news and analytical content, and frequently hosts live streaming programs on YouTube. In February 2020 Sputnik celebrated five years of work in Serbia. President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic, as well as the minister of foreign relations Ivica Dacic, attended the ceremony. President Vucic even went as far to say that “Sputnik has become one of the most influential media outlets in Serbia today” Five Years of Sputnik in Serbia. URL: http://www.politika.rs/sr/clanak/447726/Pet-godina-

Sputnjika-u-Srbiji (accessed: 28.02.2020)., which is a testament not only to this particular media, but to the importance of close ties between Serbia and Russia.

In comparison to Western privately or state-owned media in Serbia, Russian investments in this area is miniscule. However, just because the Western media outlets are widespread to such an extent, makes the much smaller Russian media outlet look as an alternative source of information. This factor, taken together with a high degree of positive sentiments towards Russia among Serbia's general population, makes low-funded Russian media much more popular then analysts would conclude judging by the numbers alone. Sputnik is also rather popular in neighboring countries with a large portion of Serbian population, namely Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The short conclusion for Russia's soft power in Serbia concerning the aspect of media and communications is that the Russian Federation is highly active (taking into account the small investment it has made).

Economic ties between Russia and Serbia are strong because of the free trade agreement between these two countries. Russia is the third partner of Serbia in regards to import of goods and the fifth in regards to export of goods abroad The Overall External Trade in the Republic of Serbia for the Period January-August 2019. URL: https://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-Latn/vesti/20190930-spoljnotrgovinska-robna-razmena-avgust-2019 (accessed: 28.02.2020).. The biggest trading partner of Serbia is the EU, which takes up 62,7% of the total yearly goods exchange.

In 2019 Russia exported 1.3 billion euros worth of goods to Serbia, which is just a tiny fraction of Russia's total export gains. Nevertheless, Serbia is an important trade partner of the Russian Federation because of it's geographical position especially in regards to energy resources trade. The current Turkish Stream pipeline project also includes Bulgaria and Serbia as countries through which the gas is to flow into central Europe. The previous project South Stream pipeline failed because the Bulgarian government succumbed to pressure from the United States and the EU.

The Bulgarian and Serbian authorities renamed this prospected pipeline extension the Balkan Stream, because the term Turkish has negative connotations. Whether or not the Bulgarian side will honor it's promises is not a closed matter, but the Serbian government has shown great interest in this project thus far.

In 2008, Russia's Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of Gazprom, took a controlling stake in Serbia's Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) oil and gas company, a deal worth over 450 million US dollars, and committed to invest at least another 600 million dollars in the company. NIS has retained its brand and partially it's management structure, as Serbian government keeps hold of it's minority shares. Year after year NIS is the biggest taxpayer in the Serbian budget, reaching up to 13% of the budget income in totalWho are the Biggest Contributors to Serbia's Budget? URL: https://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/ srbija.php?yyyy=2014&mm=01&dd=16&nav_id=800601 (accessed: 28.02.2020)..

Serbia's agriculture industry also depends on the Russian market, this is the main reason, besides political ones, that kept Serbia from joining the Western countries in imposing sanctions against Russia. Close to 15% of all agricultural exports of Serbia are exported to Russia. This may not seem that important, but the majority of the remaining export goes to neighboring countries which means that those goods are exported at a lower price than those that go to Russia. Furthermore, some particular branches of Serbian agricultural production are dependent on Russia, such as the production of raspberry, produced throughout the already impoverished western Serbia.

Russia has also invested in other sectors across the region: banking, retail, real estate, and tourism. In 2012, Russia's state-owned Sberbank purchased Volksbank International, formerly the Eastern European subsidiary of an Austrian banking group, now called Sberbank Europe. The acquisition gave the Russian bank a relatively large retail and commercial banking presence in Southeastern Europe, with assets in Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

Russia also makes up the greatest number of European tourists in Serbia, surpassing Germany (not counting the neighboring countries in which many Serbians who have relatives in Serbia live) Serbia's Tourism Income Amounts to 1,2 Billion Euros. URL: https://www.danas.rs/ ekonomija/prihod-od-turizma-12-milijarde-evra/ (accessed: 28.02.2020).. While Russia's economic influence over Serbia is important it is nothing compared to the influence that the EU fields in this area (especially Germany). There is little that Russia itself can do to remedy this. Russia is a free market economy and private investors make decisions as to where to invest their capital. Clearly, at this juncture Russia has no real interest to more actively engage in investments in Serbia and the Balkans, outside of major pipeline and infrastructural projects it is already involved in. Global instability, trade wars between the US and China, civil war in Ukraine, and involvement in wars in Syria and Libya have stretched the Russian economy to the breaking point.

The short conclusion for Russia's soft power in Serbia concerning the aspect of economic ties is that the Russian Federation is lowly active, but even that activity is enough to exert a certain amount of pressure on the Serbian government.

In summary, Russia can do a lot more in the field of historical and cultural ties to Serbia in order to improve it's soft power and expand it's influence in the aforementioned country. These are fields which do not need large amounts of capital to be invested in order to produce a desirable effect. All that is necessary is the political will and some creative thinking. Russia should definitely stop to rely too much upon it's diplomatic mission and official institutions, and start to spread it's influence in Serbia's civil sector.

Perspectives of Russia's soft power in Montenegro

Historical ties between Montenegro and Russia share a common start in the Middle Ages, as Montenegro was then a part of medieval Serbian kingdom. After Serbia was conquered by the Ottomans in the 15^th century the province of Montenegro became independent, but was ultimately also taken by the Ottomans. However, by the 17^th century a small mountainous region of Montenegro around the town of Cetinje became independent of Ottoman rule and quickly sought to establish ties with Russia, as the Russian Empire was the protector of Orthodox Christendom at the time. Russia sent aid to Montenegro throughout the centuries and this made the Montenegrin Serbian population one of the most Russophilic in the Balkans.

Today, however, Montenegro is a deeply divided society, with 45% percent of citizens claiming to be ethnic Montenegrins, and another 30% declaring themselves Serbs¹¹. This divide is even more complicated by the fact that 43% of citizens of Montenegro claim that the Serbian language is their mother tongue and 37% declared in favor of the Montenegrin language, while linguistically these languages constitute a single language without a doubt. There is also a question of a schism in the orthodox church of Montenegro, but as recent massive protests led by the Serbian Orthodox Church have shown, the noncanonical Montenegrin Orthodox Church has very little support outside the town of Cetinje, the stronghold of contemporary Montenegrin nationalism. It would be an oversimplification to claim that those Montenegrins who declare themselves as Serbian support Russia, and those who define themselves as ethnic Montenegrins do not. Some public opinion polls in Montenegro are available but they are done by an NGO called CEDEM in short, which is a branch of the Open Society Foundation run by George Soros.

CEDEM's opinion poll from December of 2019 shows that 26,4% of citizens of Montenegro believe that their country should seek support in matters of foreign policy from the EU, 19,1% form the US, and 17,4% from Russia Montenegro Statistical Agency Report on the 2011 Population Census. URL: https://www.monstat.org/usefiles/file/popis2011/saopstenje/saopstenje(1).pdf (accessed: 29.02.2020). CEDEM Public Opinion Poll, December 2019. URL: https://www.cedem.me/

images/Politicko_javno_mnjenje_decembar_2019pdf.pdf (accessed: 29.02.2020).. The same poll found that 55% of Montenegrins are in favor of joining the EU, while only 38% percent were in favor of NATO, with 42% against this Alliance. Nevertheless, Montenegro became a member of NATO in 2017. These numbers show that Montenegrins are mostly in favor of the EU, but are divided in their support to the US and Russia, and while we may doubt these figures coming from a biased source, it is an undeniable fact that the Montenegrin society is a deeply divided one and that does not bode well for Russia's soft power in said country.

The problem of spreading soft power in Montenegro in Russia is in the extremely antagonistic attitude of the Montenegrin government toward the policies of the Russian Federation. If we analyze the discourse of political leaders from the Balkans it will become clear that most Russophobic statements come from Montenegro, a country whose population is clearly not outright Russophobic. There is little that Russia can do to enhance this relationship soft power wise, as this attitude of the Montenegrin government is tied with the support of Western governments to the regime of president Milo Djukanovic himself. He has been in power for around 30 years and shows no sign of relinquishing power.

In order to skip repetition of presented material, everything that has been said about the historical and cultural ties between Serbia and Russia, also stands for Russia and Montenegro. Russian educational policy in Montenegro is the same as in Serbia - centralized. The Montenegrin experience of world wars is very similar to the Serbian one. The only difference is that Russia cannot organize any public events in Montenegro because Montenegrin officials won't allow it. As far as Russian media presence is concerned, it has already been mentioned that Sputnik in Serbian is the official media center of Russia in the region. That means that Montenegrins can also follow this program.

The short conclusion for Russia's soft power in Montenegro concerning the aspects of historical and cultural ties, as well as media and communications is that the Russian Federation is highly active but it's actions are hampered by the animosity of the current Montenegrin regime towards the Russian government.

The one area that Serbia and Montenegro greatly differ, in regards to perspectives of Russia's soft power, is the aspect of economic ties. Montenegro relies mostly on income it receives from tourism, being a small country without many resources, but with sea access. Montenegro earned around 1,1 billion euros from tourism in 2019, and the most numerous tourists came from Russia, Germany and Serbia Montenegro's Tourist Flow Amounts to 26,4 Million Tourist Visits per Year. URL: https://www.bankar.me/2020/02/26/crnu-goru-prosle-godine-posjetilo-264-miliona-turista/ (accessed: 29.02.2020).. Despite this clear dependency from Russia, Montenegro was one of the first Balkan states outside the EU to impose sanctions on Russia, it did not however impose visas on Russian citizens. Besides the now defunct aluminum combine in the city of Podgorica owned by the CEAC company that is itself a part En+ Group, tied to Oleg Deripaska, Montenegro has no real connections to the Russian economy besides the flow of tourists. If Russia would impose a flight ban to Montenegro because it feared for the safety of it's citizens because of the Rus- sophobic atmosphere created by the Montenegrin government, like it did in Georgia in 2019, this will undoubtably greatly destabilize Montenegro. However, such coercive methods (which are considered hard power) would hurt Russia's soft power in the country, and that may be one of the reasons the Russian Federation still has not used it. Other reasons might be that some Russian businessmen still keep ties with the Montenegrin government and are active stakeholders in the country, but this goes beyond scientific discourse and into the realm of speculation. On the other hand, Russia clearly has no means of converting it's strong economic ties with Montenegro into soft power, not with the current regime in power in Montenegro.

The short conclusion for Russia's soft power in Montenegro concerning the aspect of economic ties is that the Russian Federation is highly active, but even that activity is not enough to exert pressure on the Montenegrin government without resulting to hard power.

In summary, while the citizens of Montenegro are generally not Russophobic, the Montenegrin government certainly is, and this blocks Russia from expanding it's soft power and influence in the country, at least on the official level. Perhaps it is wise on part of the Russian Federation to restrain itself from using economic hard power, because that would hurt it's relationship with ordinary Montenegrins in decades to come.

Perspectives of Russia's soft power in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)