Estimation of bank default probability

Investigation of the influence of various microeconomic financial and macroeconomic factors on the probability of a bank default. Analysis of the main reasons for revoking a banking license by the Central Bank of Russia using two binary choice models.

Рубрика Банковское, биржевое дело и страхование
Вид дипломная работа
Язык английский
Дата добавления 01.12.2019
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ПЕРМСКИЙ ФИЛИАЛ ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО АВТОНОМНОГО ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНОГО УЧРЕЖДЕНИЯ ВЫСШЕГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ

«НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЙ УНИВЕРСИТЕТ

«ВЫСШАЯ ШКОЛА ЭКОНОМИКИ»

Факультет экономики, менеджмента и бизнес-информатики
Выпускная квалификационная работа
Estimation of bank default probability
Оценка вероятности дефолта банков
Комаров Борис Борисович

Пермь, 2019 год

Оглавление

Introduction

1. Theoretical basis

1.1 Overview of the banking system

1.2 The money market

1.3 The foreign exchange market

1.4 The capital market

1.5 The derivatives market

1.6 The credit and deposit markets

1.7 Commission business

1.8 The overview of the bank risks

1.9 Banks business models

1.10 The literature review

2. Stating the research question

3. Methodology of the research

4. Results description

Conclusion

References

Abstract

Appendix

Introduction

Despite the big length of Russian banking system existence, it still can be called a developing and forming structure. The process of new bank foundation and some of them going through the default procedure is very dynamic and multiple-aspect.

This work examines the question of bank default probability estimation on the dataset of Russian banks for the period from 2014 to 2018. The actuality if this work is strictly correlated with the current situation in the Russian banking system. From 2014 till 2018 years the Central Bank recalled the banking license from 362 banks (39, 22% of Russian banks in 2014). This dramatic change in the number of working banks with ruble weakening in the background signifies serious problems in the Russian economy. Moreover, sanctions to the Russia contributed to the problems in the national economy as a whole and in the banking system in particular. That is why the works considering the reasons for some of these changes are relevant.

Our work examine different factors, which contribute to the probability of bank default (macroeconomic and the microeconomic ones, describing the financial state of the bank). It is need to be stated here, that unfortunately there are just few works, which use econometric approach for treating default probability estimation. Actually this approach is used by Russian Central Bank and therefore research onto factors contributing to the default can be useful for upgrading the existing methodic of default estimation. In particular, macroeconomic regulators, such as Russian Central Bank, can apply some of this works findings to their working models. As we know, most of the works use binominal logit regressions for the purpose of prognosing the default. This approach has serious drawbacks. Assigning «1» and «0» to the bank survival and default respectively (or vice-versa) the researcher ignore the different reasons for Central Bank recalling the license, while the same factor can grant differently to the different types of default.

For this purpose, using simultaneously several binary choice models seems more relevant and appropriate in order to assume more accurate estimates of the parameters in our work contrary to those using just one logit binary choice model. We know only one work, which implement such methodic into practice (Peresetsky, 2013). But in this work the dataset (the second quarter of 2005 till the fourth quarter of 2008) does not reflect the present conditions of the Russian financial sector. As a matter of fact, starting from the 2014 the national economy suffers serious impacts of both inner and outer effects: the fall of the rubble exchange rate, financial restrictive measures from the West countries due to the complicated political situation after the Crimea joined Russia, the large-scale recalling of the banking licenses by the Russian Central Bank. That is the reason, why we tend to use the data acquired for the period from 2014 to 2018.

The objective of this work is to find factors of default, which can explain the value of bank default probability in view of different possible reasons for Russian Central Bank recalling the license procedure.

There is a list of tasks in order to achieve this goal:

1) To study the literature on bank functioning (especially regarding publications of Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) in order to understand the principles of bank going through default;

2) To study the similar papers, dedicated to bank default probability estimation;

3) To determine the groups of factors which are usually used for predicting the default;

4) To define, what type of bank default this work should introduce at the final stage;

5) To extract empirical data from a valid source of information;

6) To perform all the calculations and get the final model results;

7) To test the quality of the model chosen.

The results of this work can be useful on the one hand for future researchers looking for more background of using simultaneously several logit regression models in bank default forecasting and on the other hand for the macroeconomic regulators as a source of potential improvements for current systems of estimation of bank default.

In this paper we use basic econometric analysis approaches such as limited dependent variable modelling. The particular ones - the binary choice models - will allow us to construct a valid prediction models, which are applicable to the current Russian financial sector.

Scientific novelty of this work is closely connected with the research question. The differentiation of the reasons for recalling the banking license by Russia Central Bank allows to separate different factors contribution out. The evident thesis consists in differing the process of bankruptcy into multiple distinguished cases. The reason why most of the researchers ignore this issue, which to our point of view goes without saying, is unclear, while this important precondition may significantly alter the research findings. Considering our dataset and the peculiarity of chosen period it is apparently the only way to solve the problem of reaching the understanding of license revocation prediction background.

Here we need to point out to the structure of the work and briefly characterize the main sources of information.

In the theoretical basis we will analyze the basic issues of bank functioning and the most significant risks in order to proof suitability and usefulness of chosen regressors or so-called predictors of default. In addition, this part includes theoretical review of most significant works related to our topic.

In Stating the Research question part, we propose a research question (which to some extent is associated with the scientific novelty) and announce the put forth hypotheses.

Then in the Methodology of the research, we ground the chosen model algorithm, introduce the set of appropriate predictors and briefly talk about the data sources.

In Results description, we state our research findings and confirm or refuse the hypotheses. Then we make a conclusion.

1. Theoretical basis

1.1 Overview of the banking system

The object of this work is in the field of applying econometric modelling procedure to the banking default estimation. In order to proceed with theoretical background we should give some basic concepts of bank default estimation.

In the beginning, we want to substantiate the need in banks today.

The most obvious answer to the question about the function of banks in the economy consists in the implementation of transaction operations with money. These ones include purely logistical operations with money. For example, we mean storing money in bank vaults and cashing out funds from electronic accounts. These operations differ in the way the money do not change the owner. The Bank carries out certain operations on the clients' money, but the property rights remain with the customers. Another and more important type of bank transactions is money transfers. In this case, the Bank also de facto does not have the opportunity to dispose of the clients' funds. But in the same time the transfer of ownership is already under way. Transactional operations of banks are important, but not the main activity for most banks.

The main activity of banks is the reception of deposits, and that is in fact renting money from customers, and the issuance of loans -- renting money to other customers. The public benefit of money borrowing is simply the fact that business can borrow money to start a new production line and return them when the new line will function and begin to make a profit. If it would not be possible to borrow money, business would have to slowly save money for the opening of a new production, missing business opportunities. Business is also often interested in borrowing so-called working capital, in other words, the funds needed to purchase inventory and produce products. An individual can use a cash loan to buy an apartment on credit, instead of renting it. If the loan payments are commensurate with the lease payments, the purchase of an apartment on credit is more profitable, since after the loan payment the apartment remains in the property of the borrower. Similarly, an individual may finance the borrowed funds their education and to repay the loan received, with the new competencies and more paid jobs. It turns out that cash loans allow individuals to increase their consumption in the present at the expense of income that will come in the future. It turns out that borrowing money or, in professional terms, debt financing creates objective economic benefits for borrowers, for which they are willing to pay. Consequently if there is demand, then there will be supply. The opportunity to provide money in debt attracts those interested in preserving and increasing their savings. This may be of interest to both individuals directly and all sorts of institutional investors, aggregating their accumulation. It is exactly where banks come at the first place. Enterprises may also be interested in issuing excess cash in debt, and if they do not currently have the opportunity to put them into domestic circulation. That is actually the reason, why massive bank default is so polemic and to some extent painful process to the society.

There are several obstacles to direct interaction between borrowers and investors. It may be difficult for them to agree on the terms of the loan. The most fundamental disagreement, as a rule, arises about the urgency of the loan. The urgency of loans determine how flexible the funds can be managed or, in professional language, their liquidity. At the same time, urgency affects liquidity in the diametrically opposite way for investors and borrowers. For borrowers - the longer the term received the money, the better it is for them, as more there is more flexibility at their disposal. It is clear that the money taken for 3 years, can be used in more ways than money taken for 3 months. For investors -- the longer the money is invested, the worse it is for them, as they have to wait longer until they can use their money. It turns out that the demand is higher for long money, and the supply is higher for short money. Thus, the influence of supply and demand balance on the value of money is obvious. In fact, investing for a longer period of time, investors find themselves with less liquid assets, and the borrower -- with more liquid. So far, high rate compensates investor's loss of liquidity. Banks can use it to generate profits. To do this, it is necessary to attract short-term deposits and finance long-term loans. As a result, a bank earns a premium for creating liquidity for both depositors and borrowers.

However, this money is not free. Transforming the urgency, the bank assumes a number of significant risks. The first type of risk arising from the difference of urgency between assets and liabilities of the bank is liquidity risk. It lies in the fact that the bank is under a constant threat of inability to pay all depositors, even if it has all the necessary assets on the balance sheet. The second type of risk arising from the difference between the bank's assets and liabilities is so-called interest rate risk of the bank's portfolio. Bank may face the so-called compression of interest margins, that are the difference between interest rates on loans and deposits (the main source of profit). It turns out that the difference in the structure of urgency between assets and liabilities (the gap of urgency) is a source of public benefit and earnings for banks, but it exposes banks to so-called balance sheet risks. The role on banks in the economy is inextricably linked with important property of liquidity risk. No matter how well the bank may manage liquidity risk, it can not fully insure against its occurrence. If all the depositors of the bank require their deposits at the same time and no new depositors want to open a new deposit, the bank will not be able to fulfill its obligations. In practice, the structure of the bank's balance sheet is more complex, and banks always keep a certain reserve of liquid funds on the balance sheet, such as cash or funds in an account with the Central Bank to close liquidity gaps. However, it is easy to show that these reserves should not and, in principle, can not cover deposits by 100 %. Firstly, if banks reserve their deposits by 100 %, it means that they will not be able to perform their public function of liquidity transformation. Secondly, the activity of attracting deposits in principle can not exist, as it will always be unprofitable for banks. After all, liquid assets do not bring interest income, and therefore, there will be nothing to pay the interest income to depositors. Thus, no bank can independently protect itself from the potential mass outflow of depositors, which may occur if there is public information about the financial problems of the bank. Especially if it happens with the general distrust in the banking system during the crisis in the background. The problem may be a consequence of self-fulfilling prophecy. Thoes ones does not depend on the quality of bank management. To solve the problem that banks can not solve on their own, the state comes into play, and provides a deposit insurance system that significantly reduces the likelihood of a «raid» on the bank, as it reduces the incentives of depositors to take deposits even from those banks that are experiencing financial difficulties. In the United States, the Deposit insurance system (FDIC -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) arose after the great depression, and later similar structures spread around the world. In Russia, the Deposit insurance function is performed by the Deposit insurance Agency.

The risks actually arises from the markets that banks enter through their activity. Now we move to the most often associated with banks activity markets.

1.2 The money market

The money market in Russia consists of two parts: the interbank money market and operations to provide and absorb liquidity of the Central Bank.

The first one consists from interbank credit market, inter-dealer (REPO) and currency swap market. The interbank credit market is understood primarily as a set of credit lines that banks open to each other. The main tool for managing this market are the limits that banks set on each other. The inter-dealer REPO market is the interbank REPO market and most of the REPO transactions are carried out through the Central clearing counterparty. In REPO transactions, one party sells securities to the other, agreeing in advance on their repurchase. The borrower temporarily sells the security to the creditor, while the bank does not receive its full value for it, but the cost with a small discount reflects the risk of depreciation of the paper until its repurchase. Repurchase takes place within the prescribed period (as a rule, repurchase transactions are short-term, from one day to one week). The borrower buys the security, but has to pay its value taking into account the interest income for the actually granted loan. If the borrower does not want or can not buy the paper, it remains with the lender. Thus, the security serves as collateral for the loan, and REPO transactions from an economic point of view are loans secured by securities. Collateral makes REPO transactions almost risk-free, so they are key instruments of interbank lending, in particular, borrowing from the Central Bank. But it should be noted that the level of risk of REPO transactions depends heavily on the liquidity of the securities being turned. As a rule, such transactions can be concluded only with the use of shares of the largest companies and bonds with investment credit ratings. The Central Bank regularly publishes a list of securities that it is ready to take in REPO. The third element of the interbank market is the currency swap market. Swaps are currency exchange transactions with a reverse exchange obligation at the end of the transaction and are traded primarily over-the-counter.

The second one in fact is refinancing. This is providing liquidity to commercial banks, which is the main instrument of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia. In fact, the rates at which the Central Bank lends to banks determine the cost of funding for the banking system and as a result the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. At the same time, the Central Bank provides banks with the opportunity to place funds at a certain percentage with virtually zero risk. Thus, excess liquidity is absorbed. The Central Bank has a wide range of instruments for providing liquidity to banks. However, all of them assume that borrowers have qualitative securities.

1.3 The foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange market is mainly used to serve customers and generate trading income. The foreign exchange market in Russia is represented by both exchange and OTC segments. A large share of exchange currency trading is a characteristic feature of the Russian market. In the world, most currency trading takes place over-the-counter. As for the over-the-counter market, it is dominated by direct transactions between banks, the share of transactions with brokers accounts much less percent of trading. The majority of trades is carried out with the use of electronic trading systems. By buying foreign currency assets and borrowing money in foreign currency, banks form the so-called open currency position, which is a source of currency risk for them. In the first approximation, the open currency position is simply the difference between the amount of assets and liabilities denominated in a particular currency. If the bank, for example, has the same amount of assets and liabilities denominated in US dollars, the currency position on the dollar is considered closed. In the event of a change in the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble, the revaluation of assets will fully compensate for the revaluation of liabilities, and the bank will not generate any profit or loss. If the bank has more foreign currency assets than liabilities, then they say that it has a long currency position, and with an increase in the exchange rate, it will make a profit. The presence of an open currency position allows the bank to earn trading income in the event that the movement of exchange rates is co-directional with the existing currency position, but at the same time creates risks of losses in the opposite movement of exchange rates. Also an open currency position allows the bank to carry out the transformation of currencies by analogy with how they carry out the transformation of urgency. For example, interest rates on assets in US dollars are significantly lower than on ruble assets due to the fact that inflation is significantly lower in the US and the economy as a whole is more developed and stable. This situation can be used to increase the interest margin. To do this, we need to raise funds in US dollars at low rates and invest them in ruble assets at high rates. This operation is called "carry-trade" and in fact allows to earn large sums and at the same time puts the banking business in danger of receiving huge losses in the event of a fall in the ruble to the dollar. Since carry-trade operations and currency speculation are beneficial to bank owners but jeopardize the stability of banks, regulators intervene to protect the public interest and set a limit on the maximum allowable value of the open currency position.

1.4 The capital market

The capital market combines the equity financing market (the stock market) and the long-term market for more than one year, which is the debt financing market (the bond market). Banks can use the capital market to trade shares and bonds of other companies, or to place their own shares and bonds. It should be noted that the life cycle of stocks and bonds generally consists of two markets: primary and secondary. The primary market is the market in which a security is sold immediately after its release. At the same time, this can be called a market only if the initial placement of the security was public and there was some competition for the opportunity to purchase the purchased paper. The most important form of public offerings is the placement of shares on the stock exchange (IPO). The secondary market is the market in which the security is resold after the issue. It should be noted that the security may not have a secondary market. Many securities are issued in order to remain in permanent possession of certain persons after the issue. In Russia there are both exchange and over-the-counter segments of the capital market. The exchange segment is represented by trading on the Moscow Exchange. The bond market significantly exceeds the stock market in terms of trading volume and has both exchange and over-the-counter segments.

Trading securities for profit is one of the most risky but potentially one of the most profitable activities for banks. There are several reasons for this. First, unlike money market assets, capital market assets are subject to greater volatility, they can grow very much and fall very much, especially stocks. This gives the Bank the opportunity to earn on the ability to predict price trends in the market. Secondly, access to borrowings creates for banks the effect of leverage, which allows to multiply both earnings and losses from any operations. As a result, bank owners may have incentives to invest too much money in trading and thus expose their Bank to a high risk of bankruptcy.

By trading in capital markets, banks assume risks, the implementation of which directly affects profits. First, it is a stock risk, that is, the risk of losses due to adverse changes in the price of shares. Secondly, it is a credit risk, that is, the risk of default on debt securities and the risk of reducing their value as a result of a decrease in the credit rating of the Issuer. Third, it is the interest rate risk of depreciation of debt securities in the event of an increase in the level of rates in the economy. Accordingly, regulators have to react by setting additional capital requirements to cover the risks of capital market investments. In general, banks with a traditional business model, try to limit the volume of their trading business so that it can not lead to losses that can pose a threat to the financial viability of the bank. For these purposes, a system of internal limits is usually used.

Theoretically, the issue of own shares and their placement on the capital market is a good way to increase the bank's capital, which increases its financial stability and opens up opportunities for faster growth. The success of the placement largely depends on the general situation in the capital market, and not only on the fundamental financial performance of the issuers.

Attracting funding through bond offerings is one of the most important tools for bank financial management for two reasons. Firstly, the issue of bonds is in fact the only way of long-term funding for the Bank, the maturity of 3 years and above. The fact is that in the banking market it is almost impossible to attract retail and especially corporate deposits with a maturity of more than 3 years. For banks with long-term corporate mortgages on the balance sheet, issuing bonds is the only way to reduce liquidity risk and interest rate risk. Secondly, long-term bonds are an exceptionally stable source of funding. Unlike deposits, which can be recalled at any time, bonds cannot be presented for early repayment, except for cases specifically established in the conditions of issue.

And the last significant aspect of the capital market is the securitization. The idea of securitization is to sell loans from the bank's balance sheet through the issuance of shares secured by them. Thus, the bank fully or partially gets rid of credit risk and liquidity risk associated with the loan. Securitization allows to convert a credit product in which the bank creates value by transforming credit risk or liquidity into a commission product where the bank earns solely on information and organizational services. The most popular type of securitization both in the world and in Russia is the issue of so-called mortgage-backed securities. The securitization scheme is as simplified as follows. Step one: the bank creates a specialized investment company (SPV). Step two: the bank sells part of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio. Step three: SPV issues mortgage-backed securities and pays the bank for the purchase of rights to the mortgage portfolio with the proceeds from their sale. Within the framework of the established scheme, the bank continues operating services of the mortgage loan portfolio and regularly pays the interest income received from them to SPV, from which coupon payments for mortgage securities are formed. However, in terms of risks, the situation for banks has changed dramatically. First, the credit risk of mortgage loans has become the risk of owners of mortgage securities, and its implementation does not affect the financial result of the bank. Secondly, the bank does not bear liquidity risks as he has already received back from SPV all funds issued by the client through mortgage loans. The general financial effect of securitization is expressed in the sale of risks by the bank.

1.5 The derivatives market

Now we want to introduce the derivatives market. Derivative financial instruments (derivatives) are contracts which give parties the right or make them to take some action in relation to the underlying asset after some time or upon the occurrence of certain circumstances. The underlying assets can be securities, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The main value of derivatives is that they can be used to hedge the risks associated with underlying assets. For example, a company that exports oil sells it for US dollars and wants to fix its income in ruble equivalent in case of growth of the ruble against the dollar by the end of the year. To do this, it can conclude a forward contract for the purchase of rubles at the current rate at the end of this year. Now, if the ruble grows, it will be a winner, having the opportunity to buy rubles at the old low rate. On the other hand, if the ruble falls, the company will not receive additional income because of the forward, but this is perfectly normal if the company sought to reduce the volatility of profits when entering into a derivative transaction. Currently, a significant part of derivatives is non-deliverable. Such derivative contracts do not obligate the parties to take any action with respect to the underlying asset, but simply to pay the monetary equivalent. In the previous example, the forward most likely assumes the payment of monetary compensation to the company with a decrease in the ruble exchange rate by the end of the year and the recovery of monetary compensation from the company to the other party with an increase in the ruble. As with any insurance, the person buying the insurance reduces the risk and the person selling the insurance accepts the risk. Further, it is proposed to consider the structure of the Russian market of derivative financial instruments. We can note that most of the market is over-the-counter. This is perfectly normal for the derivatives market. At the same time, the market is actively moving towards organized OTC trading. It should also be noted that the Central Bank plans to transfer trade in standardized OTC derivatives to the scheme using a Central clearing counterparty.

The first type of derivatives are currency derivatives, and they dominate the Russian market. The popularity of currency derivatives is due to two factors. Firstly, it is the structure of the Russian economy, in which exporters of raw materials play an important role. Secondly, it is the high historical volatility of the ruble. The most interesting question for us is how banks use these derivatives. In the case of currency risk, the effect of derivative transactions depends on the initial currency position of the Bank. If the Bank has a negative open currency position, the risk for it is the weakening of the ruble, and to reduce this risk, you need to buy currency derivatives. Most of these transactions are used for trading. Another big group belong to the so-called client hedging transactions of their risks. And only 10% are related to the hedging of banks' own currency risks. Client risk hedging transactions can both increase and decrease the bank's currency risk. If a bank with a negative open currency position enters into a forward transaction with this company to sell its currency at the current rate, then both parties to the transaction will hedge their risks. If the bank does so with a positive open currency position, it will assume additional risk. The prevalence of currency derivatives is explained by the fact that there are companies and banks in the market with multidirectional currency positions, so the conclusion of currency derivative transactions for them is a mutually beneficial process to reduce risks.

The commodity derivatives account for almost a half of the Russian derivatives market. Commodity risk is defined as the risk of loss due to an adverse change in the price of any goods. Commodity derivatives consist of the price of commodities - oil, metals, grains and other commodities of this kind. A large share of commodity derivatives is explained by the presence of client risk hedging transactions. In Russia there is a large sector of commodity companies for which such hedging is in demand. It should be noted that banks usually prefer not to assume commodity risk in the form of a derivative, and tend to immediately resell it to other players, concluding the opposite transaction.

Derivatives on shares make up a very small part of the Russian derivatives market. They allow to hedge or vice versa to take stock risk. Banks take stock risk as part of trading, so stock derivatives are part of the trading book - either as a risk management mechanism or as an additional speculative instrument. In general the structure of derivative contracts allows to get an additional effect of leverage, so they can take more risk than investing in the underlying assets themselves.

Interest rate derivatives are practically not represented on the Russian derivatives market. This is one of the features of Russian market, which fundamentally distinguishes it from the markets of developed countries. The share of interest rate derivatives in the world market is more than 80%. We know that interest rate risk is important for Russian banks. This is due to the high positive urgency gaps and the high historical volatility of interest rates in Russia. There are two reasons why this type of derivative is practically absent from the market. Firstly, there is the low prevalence of floating rate instruments in Russia, which are an integral part of interest rate swaps, the main type of interest rate derivatives. Secondly, unlike foreign exchange positions, the maturity gaps of most Russian banks are put in one direction. Assets are longer than liabilities. Consequently, derivative transactions that simultaneously hedge the risks of both parties are impossible. In developed markets key partners banks for interest rate derivatives are the largest life-insurance companies, pension companies or company asset management. These companies have very long liabilities and therefore operate with a negative urgency gap. The Russian life insurance and asset management market is disproportionately smaller than the banking market.

The most important class of credit derivatives (or credit risk derivatives) is credit default swaps, which are essentially insurance against the risk of default of the Issuer of a certain debt security. Credit swaps for only the largest corporations and countries are typically represented in the markets. The Russian credit derivatives market is very small. This is a global trend. Credit derivatives have played an important role in the global financial crisis, so the market has become skeptical about these instruments. Regulators, for their part, have made them as unprofitable as possible through capital requirements in order to reduce the impact of these instruments on the stability of the banking system.

1.6 The credit and deposit markets

Now we will introduce the credit market. The main type of banking activity consists in operations with loans and deposits. Credit here is interpreted here in the way of banking transaction in which the bank transfers money to another person, receiving in exchange the right to claim the return of these funds under certain conditions. Thus, a number of important characteristics is implied. Firstly, because of the issuance of a bank loan on the balance sheet of the bank there is a working asset, or in other words a bringing interest income asset. Secondly, when issuing a loan, the Bank always assumes a certain risk of non-repayment of funds, which is a credit risk. Thirdly, by issuing a loan, the bank creates liquidity in the economy, as it exchanges a super liquid asset (money) for a notoriously less liquid asset (the right to claim the return of these funds). Sometimes bank loans are classified as commodities because of the very low degree of differentiation of these products compared to non-commodities. Nevertheless, it is possible to credit on completely different terms. The intersection of these conditions forms many types of credit products.

The borrowers are very different in terms of creditworthiness, and may also have specific needs for borrowed funds. In total, there are four types of borrowers, ranking them by the volume of the credit market. Firstly, these are corporate borrowers. This category includes various legal entities, ranging from the largest international corporations to small and medium-sized businesses. Within the framework of corporate lending, there are two fundamentally different subtypes - revolving lending and project financing. In revolving credit, the bank provides money to support the company's current activities, for example, the bank provides it with current liquidity to smooth seasonal fluctuations in sales. Since the activity is well-established, it is possible to assess the risks of default, resting upon the financial statements in the assumption that they will not change radically on financing horizon. As a rule, the main drivers of risk are the size of the enterprise, measured either by turnover or the amount of assets, and the ratio of the company's profit to the amount of debt. In project financing, the bank issues money for the implementation of a completely new project. The risks here are significantly higher than in the previous case, as it is not yet known whether the project will be successful or not. The risk assessment has to be based on a thorough study of the business plan of the project, the borrower's experience in implementing similar projects in the past and other characteristics of this kind. The second type of borrowers are banks. As it was briefly mentioned before banks regularly lend to each other in the interbank market, as well as buy each other's debt securities in order to manage liquidity. The level of risk is traditionally quite low. The third type of borrowers are retail borrowers. This category includes consumers and individual entrepreneurs. The level of risk in this category is on average higher than in corporate lending. Also, the risk is quite different depending on the purpose for which the borrower requests a loan. Consumer lending aimed at increasing current consumption, for example, buying household appliances, gadgets, tourist vouchers and so on, is very high-risk. Targeted lending, for example, to buy an apartment or a car or to pay for education, is usually significantly less risky, often even less risky than certain types of corporate lending. Finally, the last type of borrowers are state and municipal authorities. Lending to the public sector is characterized by a low level of risk and, accordingly, low marginality. Lending can take completely different legal forms. Firstly, the bank can simply issue a loan by signing a contract. This trivial form is the most common in both corporate and retail lending. Secondly, the bank can place money in an account in another bank. It is important to note that any monetary loan is a loan for one side of the transaction and a deposit for the other side of the transaction. Placing money on deposits and accounts is a common form of interbank lending. Thirdly, the bank can buy a debt security. By purchasing bonds, promissory notes, savings certificates and other debt instruments, the bank acquires the right to claim funds from the issuer. Lending through the purchase of securities is one of the key forms of lending to the public sector, as well as to foreign borrowers.

The amount of credit can sometimes be a complex issue. There is a large class of credit products in which the loan amount is not known in advance to the parties to the transaction. These products include credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts that can be linked to both corporate and retail accounts. The idea of all these products is that the bank within the framework of the loan agreement establishes a certain maximum debt limit and a certain scheme under which the client can choose at what time and what share of this limit he can use. In credit cards such scheme consists in payments by credit card, in credit lines - in payments from credit lines through the IT system "bank - client", and in overdrafts - payments from current accounts or debit cards, when the balance on them becomes negative. Such products are called partially funded, as at the time of the conclusion of the relevant loan agreement and until the first use of funds there is no transfer of money from the balance sheet of the bank to the balance sheet of the client and no emergence of the corresponding right of claim. Since there is no transfer of money, then there is nothing to fund from the liabilities. Partially funded products can be an important source of liquidity and credit risk for the Bank, as within the established limit, the use of funds can occur at any time. Therefore, the limits for such products are subject to mandatory disclosure in the financial statements. They are reported in the balance sheet in the section "off-balance sheet contingent liabilities of a credit nature". Practice shows that if the borrower is experiencing financial difficulties, then he seeks to choose his credit limit to the maximum, so the share of utilization of limits among default borrowers is usually higher than among non-default borrowers. It is important to note that the bank earns interest income only from the share of the limit that is chosen by non-default borrowers, but the carried risk arises from the amount of the limit chosen by default borrowers.

The term of the loan is a very important characteristic, as it affects the value of the money issued and the level of the balance sheet risks accepted by the banks. At the same time, the loan term is not always known to the parties in advance. There are two types of loans terms that are not set in advance. The first is the placement of funds in current accounts and demand deposits with other banks. The second is partially funded products. At the same time, even if the loan term is set in the contract, there is still a risk of non-compliance due to the fact that the client may want to pay the loan in advance. Uncertainty about the timing of lending creates difficulties for the pricing of loans.

There are different loan repayment schemes. We will consider four of them that are most popular. The first repayment scheme is an annuity. This is when the repayments are made in equal installments that includes both the body for a long time and percentage. This scheme is the most common. Especially often it is used in retail lending. The second repayment scheme is a bullet. Here only interest income is extinguished until the end of the loan term, the body itself is long paid in full at the end of the term. This repayment scheme is used in coupon bonds but is also sometimes used in project financing. The third repayment scheme is a discount. This is when there are no interest payments, but the body of the debt exceeds the issued funds by a certain amount. This repayment scheme is used in non-coupon bonds, and it is also used in REPO transactions. The fourth repayment scheme is a credit vacation or grace period. This is when during a certain period, payments are either not made at all or only interest is paid, and at the end of this period, the annuity repayment of the remaining debt begins. Repayment schemes affect the risk level of the product. The greater the share of payments concentrated at the time of repayment of the loan the greater the potential losses are. Therefore, the least risky scheme is the scheme of annuity payments, and the most risky - the discount scheme.

Another important characteristic of loans is the presence or absence of collateral and other special conditions. Collateral can be any property right that passes to the lender in case of default of the borrower's obligations under the loan agreement. Historically, collateral was the first main instrument of credit risk management. Ideally it should reduce it to zero. In fact, if the loan is secured by a liquid asset, the value of which is equal to the amount of the loan, then in case of default, the bank can simply sell the asset and fully compensate its losses. In practice, mortgages are usually low-liquid, for example, it is a different kind of real estate. Thus, lending is in fact a tool to increase collateral liquidity for the borrower. In retail lending products with collateral are mortgages. As well as car loans, where the collateral is the purchased car. In corporate lending, almost all loans have any collateral. Typically, enterprises pledge such their fixed assets as production facilities, equipment, and land. Often, the objects of security are the stocks of goods produced by the borrower, for example, grown cereals in the case of lending to agricultural enterprises. In practice, usually there is a negative correlation between the presence of qualitative assurance and the probability of default. This is due to the fact that the availability of high-quality collateral dramatically increases the cost of default for the borrower. Therefore, he seeks to repay the debt in any way.

Additionally, another tool to reduce credit risk is a covenant. That is a special restriction on the action of borrowers, the violation of which may result in sanctions by the bank. The most typical covenants are penalties for late payments, often in the form of additional interest charges. There are also more specific covenants, usually established in corporate lending. For example, project financing usually requires the borrower to finance part of the project from its own funds. Another common type of covenants is a limit to the borrower's ability to get additional debt so that the profit-to-debt ratio would not be compromised.

It is important to understand that any bank borrowing is the reverse side of another bank loan. Therefore, to describe the characteristics of banks borrowings need to get to same points as to describe the characteristics of loans. An important difference is that for loans the key characteristic is the level of credit risk, but for borrowings the key characteristic is their stability. That is, the level of risk of early withdrawal of these deposits, which determines the liquidity risk. As in the case of loans, the same four categories of lenders can be described. However, in the first place in importance of funding for the banking system will be individuals. The lowest liquidity risk is inherent in loans from individuals, while loans from banks and corporate borrowers are less stable. There are three main forms of borrowings by banks. Firstly, it is raising funds to current accounts and deposits. This is the main source of funding. Their stability depends on many factors. The second type is reverse REPO (short-term borrowing from other banks and the Central Bank). The third type of borrowing is the issue and sale of debt securities. Raising funds through a bond issue is the most stable source of funding. Attracting through the issuance of savings certificates is essentially equivalent to attracting retail deposits. Current accounts and deposits allow not only early withdrawals, but also topping up during the deposit period, which can also create additional risks for banks. Now we move on to the term of raising the funds and the repayment schemes. Term deposits have a fixed contractual maturity but they may be affected by the possibility of early withdrawals. Current accounts do not have a fixed term. Bank loans almost always involve bullet repayment. Now we move to the pledges and covenants. Bank loans are unsecured loans. However, in the case of retail deposits, the deposit insurance system provides depositors with a refund guarantee. As for the covenants, for term deposits, as a rule there are penalties for early withdrawal (for example, in the form of zeroing the accumulated interest income), as well as restrictions on early replenishment, as a rule after a certain period from the opening of the deposit. As we can see, the main uncertainty exists about the timing and amounts of deposits placed on current accounts and deposits. The first behavioral characteristic is the effective maturity of deposits under normal conditions. That is, what is the average term of storage of money by the depositor in the bank at constant interest rates. Secondly, the effective dynamics of the value of deposits in normal conditions. That is, what are the average expected early withdrawals and deposits at constant interest rates. Thirdly, sensitivity to changes in interest rates. That is, how likely the deposit will be withdrawn ahead of schedule in the event of an increase in rates, or vice versa replenished in the event of a decrease in rates.

To clearly understand these points, banks analyze the historical dynamics of deposits and try to identify stable patterns, which are then used as an introduction to the pricing of deposits. It should be noted that in certain cases, the bank can attract borrowings with negative margins, if the stability of funding is more important to the bank. For example, to perform any regulatory metrics. Borrowing costs consist of operating and specific costs. With regard to transaction costs, the situation is similar to the transaction costs of loans, but the specific costs should be described in more detail. As we stated before, the liquidity risk plays the same role for bank borrowings as the credit risk for bank loans. Therefore, we can distinguish the following types of specific costs of borrowings: firstly, it is the cost of storage on the balance sheet of liquidity reserves. The need to store liquidity reserves may be related both to the need to reserve deposits and to the need to comply with regulatory liquidity standards. In general, the less stable a borrowing is the more liquidity reserves need to be held for it. The second component is insurance payments to the deposit insurance system. These costs apply only to retail deposits.

1.7 Commission business

Commission operations of banks can be divided into two types. Firstly, these are operations in which there is no credit risk (they include the so-called transaction operations). Secondly, it is off-balance sheet operations that carry credit risk. These include primarily guarantees and letters of credit.

Pointing to the transaction operations of banks we refer to different types of services for the movement of money in physical and digital form, and those are remittances and payments. The latter is most often associated with the opening and maintenance of current accounts of legal entities and individuals. We can indentify the following types of transaction services for individuals. Firstly, these are money transfers and payments. Secondly, it is currency exchange. Thirdly, these are the opening and maintenance of a current account and transactions with them. Fourthly, it is the issue and maintenance of debit cards related to international card payment systems: Visa, Mastercard and so on. These services generally are combined in a package offering. An individual opens a current account, draws up a payment card and then gain the access to other types of transaction services through the Internet Bank and ATMs (Automatic Teller Machine).

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