Главная Коллекция "Revolution" Экономика и экономическая теория Прогнозирование демографических показателей и нормативов бюджетного финансирования дошкольного и общего образования по г. Москва

Прогнозирование демографических показателей и нормативов бюджетного финансирования дошкольного и общего образования по г. Москва

Методика скользящего прогнозирования экономики, финансов системы образования на примере города Москва. Рекомендации по преодолению проблемных зон методики и оценка состояния региональной системы образования. Прогноз развития образования на 2015-2020 года.

Рубрика Экономика и экономическая теория
Вид статья
Язык русский
Дата добавления 24.05.2018
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Abstract

In the item the method of the sliding forecast of economy and finance of the educational system is described on the example of Moscow and Moscow region, revealed its advantages and disadvantages, offered the recommendations for overcoming the problem areas of the method and assessed the state of the regional education system, and developed the forecast of its progress for 2015-2020 years.

In this item we analyze all information which is collected for population aged 1-6 and 7-18 years, enrollment in pre-school institutions and general education, the number of teachers in these organizations, budget expenditures of these considered institutions. Tendencies of changes in indicators over the years have been revealed and we built the forecast for 2015-2022 years by dint of the approximation equation. Analysis and forecasting of budget expenditures the Moscow Region, which were implemented programs of general education, was carried out using specific indicators of budget expenditures - per one student. The dynamics of this index were calculated on the basis of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Specific budgetary spending adjusted for inflation. The forecast of the budget expenses for Moscow and the Moscow region was calculated in two ways. The first option is based on the assumption of the specific growth rate of budget expenses in the forecast period, in line with the current trend, described by the equation approximation. The second option of the forecast is based on the assumption that the specific budgetary expenses (a kind of standard of budgetary financing of education) because of the budget situation will be stabilized at the level of 2013 and during the forecast period will not grow. The results, as well as for the forecast budget expenses, determine the need for teachers to provide training projected enrollment. Thanks to the model which were been built in this research we can identify trends in growth or decline in population in the age group which is in our interest. It allow us to correlate and increase or decrease in budget expenses on education.

Keywords: an approximate equations; a logarithmic trend line; the number of students; preschool education; general education; budget expenses; rolling forecast; inflation level; forecast; ancing.

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