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National Research University - Higher School of Economics

HSE Graduate School of Urbanism

Laboratory for Experimental Urban Design `Shukhov Lab'

Faculty of Urban and Regional Development

Mitigating Negative Impact of Global Automation by Developing Local Workplaces

Master's Degree Final Project

in the field of study: Urban Development (07.04.04)

academic programme: Prototyping Future Cities

Director: Vicente Guallart

Supervisor: Paulina Smykouskaya

Student: Mikhail Sokolov

Moscow, 2019



Abstract

Long-term unemployment is a serious problem for the city economy. Timely detection of the problem source allows to identify methods to prevent it. This thesis focuses on the relation between work automation and the reduction of low-skilled personnel as the most vulnerable social group. The aim of this thesis is to find a solution to prevent unemployment in the conditions of developing robotization, taking into account the influence of the problem on the city as a whole, and on the worker in particular. The study conducted a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries in the framework of exposure to automation, identified the most vulnerable social groups and analyzed existing methods to combat unemployment.

To develop recommendations, various types of small businesses were studied, including an urban farm and a social enterprise. The study included consideration of business models and the structure of enterprises in order to identify the most appropriate format of the proposal. The territorial aspects that affect the functioning of enterprises and their business model were identified. According to the results of the study, practical recommendations were developed on the formation of new jobs in the peripheral regions of Moscow.

The long-term goal of this paper is to create recommendations which allow to achieve sustainable environment in areas that were planned to be monofunctional.

Keywords: Robotization, Technological unemployment, Urban farm, Social enterprise, microdistrict, local business, spatial analysis, economics



Project Brief

unemployment economy automation social

Modern society is faced with a contradiction, caused by technological progress. From the one hand the automation is making a people's lives better and saving them from the routine tasks and hard physical labor, but from the other hand it threaten people's basic needs for stability and caused growth of various social problems related to unemployment.

Automation concerns numerous sectors of economic activity, foremost replacing hard physical labor, then displacing people from service sector by developing bots and algorithms. Lying on the fact that the modern economy is built on a narrow specialization of employee and high standardizations of processes, having developed a solution in one industry, it is easily replicated in many others. This trend caused the condition when more and more workers with narrow specializations replaced by robots and algorithms. Such situation creates a global problem because it involves many people around the world, mostly from socially unprotected groups.

In the course of progress, humanity has relieved itself of the need to perform hard physical work, at the same time a compensating effect arisen - new professions appeared, labor productivity grown. The tertiary sector of the economy -- the service sector -- was developed, and at the same time the division of labor and specialization grown.

The problem of technological unemployment increased when the level of complexity of robots led to the ability to replace employee - displaced workers must either constantly improve their specialization or manage these processes, both of which require good education and high qualification.

In some countries, such as Russia, there is a high proportion of low-paid workers who are most susceptible to be displaced due to low levels of education and relatively low labor productivity. This large stratum of society can cause a strong social stratification in the case of global automation and significantly increase unemployment.

Most previous research has focused on the study of the unemployment phenomenon, its consequences, social and personal problems caused by unemployment. However, technical progress has historically led to the appearance of a compensatory effect, manifesting itself in new jobs and increasing productivity, so the problem of technological unemployment has many skeptics about its seriousness. Several studies focus on the prospects for automating the Russian economy, with particular attention paid to the lower class, which does not have the ability to adapt to technological changes.

In comparison with developed countries, in Russia, low-paid work is not temporary for workers, there are a number of reasons why people have been engaged in it for a long time, without having the opportunity to engage in savings. Formerly being displaces, low-skilled workers had the opportunity to find alternative work in short time, but with global automation this will be the case for fewer and fewer people. Lacking the necessary knowledge and performance, they will form a class of long-term unemployed.

The job creations aspects reviewed with taking into account the specific of the certain Russian situation, shortly described above, and in the context of the Moscow reality, which will be a part of input conditions of research study. This research also focused on the solutions for the problem of unemployment that could be realized by local communities without having to turn to resource or regulation on the level of a federal or a city government. The project and research study help to create jobs where they did not exist, arranging displaces people, this will reduce the impact of unemployment and give impetus to the development of bedroom communities. Using business locality as a fundamental criterion, analysis of local aspects makes it possible to identify the most favorable places for creating an enterprise and activating local communities. The emergence of a new class of artisans on the periphery of the city will also allow to develop the idea of ??sustainability and polycentricity, based on new workplaces and points of trade.

The goal of the project is to develop a model of a functioning business that meets the objectives set -- first of all, create jobs in a residential neighborhood, then activate the space around the enterprise and provoke the creation of weak ties within the district. Taking in account the complexity of reviewing problematic the local district of the city studied as a part of more complex system but as a self-contained functional subsystem.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to determine what factors must be considered to create a sustainable community based on a new business. It is also necessary to determine what distinguishes the project of a working enterprise from a small business and how its location will influence the success of the synthesis of workers and the community. For this, it is necessary to consider a new enterprise from several sides, from a business, a social enterprise and an architectural object, each of which is responsible for the successful functioning and development.

The paper is based on the study of technological unemployment problem, its sources, scale, a comparative analysis of the affected territories, the impact of the problem on the economy. Determines the most unprotected group. Possible solutions are observed in case study analysis of urban farms. Gathered information allowed to provide a list of criteria, which have the impact on the location and business model of enterprise, the technique of criteria interpretation was developed.

During the development of the proposal, a geospatial analysis was conducted to identify the characteristics of the territory under consideration. Using quantitative data, as the source of information, the places most suitable for the development of the working enterprise were identified.

It is expected that the business project will create a sustainable environment in which the functions of the bedroom community will be complemented by the functions of work, leisure and recreation. This should be achieved through a territorial analysis, during which the most relevant locations for business are determined. The developed architectural model based on simplicity of production and scalability should be considered as a universal example for a working building.



1. Research study

1.1 Introduction

Location of a business is a key task that companies set for themselves - they spend large resources on finding the best options for locating a business in the most profitable places. A displaced worker, becoming an individual entrepreneur, does not have the ability to qualitatively identify the territory that would allow him to conduct business effectively. The question of competition with existing enterprises, which are oriented towards the mass consumer and have a wide range of goods, becomes critical.

However, taking into account the inability of a low-skilled worker to compete with such enterprises, the type of activity should be shifted to the interaction with a loyal audience. Having data on the local situation, defining a place that is protected from direct competition with commercial establishments and producing goods that have value for a local audience, an entrepreneur occupies a niche that is free in modern neighborhoods. His task is to create weak ties with the residents of the area so the product he creates has value within the neighborhood in which it is made. Such enterprise supported with financial sustainability allows to create new jobs in places where there is a shortage.

1.2 Research area

Creation of jobs is one of the ways to decrease the influence of technological unemployment consequences. The new jobs creations issue in modern Russia is mainly decided as a part of different programs and projects on the level of state and regional governments.

This research focuses on the opposite vector and develops the tool to support the efforts of private persons and local communities on the way of developing new business and jobs.

The goal of the project is to develop a model of a functioning business in a residential neighborhood, develop the space around the enterprise and provoke the creation of weak ties within the district. Using of this model should help determine reasonable answers on the question about the better place for deploying business inside the local neighborhood and the better functional type of this business.

As it's not reasonable to develop optimization model for any kind of business, the first step of the project is to analyze the labor market in chosen local area, determine most impacted by automation social classes, choose the perspective type of local enterprise which would be oriented on the local needs and market.

The second part of the project is dedicated to define key factors of local district that allow to develop key indicators of favorable locations for new local enterprises and enterprises specialization.

The third part of the project is to develop the implementation of the model as a running program application that could provide recommendations about the new business based on the information about specific features of the certain local area and neighborhood.

The forth part is to determine main demands and limitations for creating minimum infrastructure that can be used to deploy new enterprises and allow develop recommendation for architectural realization of new business.

1.3 Background information

The origins of this problem are in the history of labor development and the structure of the modern economy. Since the emergence of the working class, the overwhelming number of urban workers has been working with their hands, but in the middle of the XX century, with the development of a post-industrial society, the service sector and the share of intellectual labor began to grow. With further automation of production, new jobs were created to service new mechanisms and improve them. Thus, the growth of the economy and welfare was due to the retraining of specialists, the acquisition of new knowledge and the ability to create and maintain more complex mechanisms. New technologies allowed to automate large enterprises, develop online commerce, and even robotize the service industry. The development of robots has reached such level that helped Japan to solve the inverse problem - the shortage of workers caused by the aging of the population.

Another factor is urban poverty. As the cities grew, there was a need for both types of labor, skilled and unskilled. Urbanization predominantly occurred due to the resettlement of people from villages in order to find work in the city, and from then to this day, large cities have been home for low-skilled workers who are not able to find such type of work outside cities.

Two of these factors led to the fact that robots replace highly specialized workers in various fields of activity, maintenance of mechanisms required fewer and fewer people, and the level of skills required was increasing. Therefore, people who have a low level of income and a low level of education are not able to upgrade their skills to the necessary level and find themselves in a situation when there are no jobs with appropriate qualifications in the city.

1.4 Literature review

A lot of existing research are focused on the study of the effect of robotization on unemployment. Robotization leads to an imbalance in job creation, causing the growth in some areas and shortage in others (Vermeulen, Kesselhut, Pyka, & Saviotti, 2018). New technologies ambivalently influence the development of the labor market, putting pressure on workers, particularly in the retail sector (Qureshi & Syed, 2014). The research showed how the development of new technologies affects the consciousness of the younger generation who face difficulty finding work (Pol & Reveley, 2017). The study examined how the introduction of new technologies affects the level of wages in various sectors of the economy (Frey & Osborne, 2013). In general, researchers agree that the problem of unemployment, if not fully proven, is real and requires more attention to finding a compensating effect.

In addition to the researches of robotization and unemployment relationship, a number of papers that study the negative impact on the psyche of a person exposed to unemployment were also examined. A person facing unemployment goes through unforeseen stages of awareness of his or her new status (Jakimovski, 2010). In addition, it is noted that unemployment is a strong factor for social disintegration (Rantakeisu, Starrin, & Hagquist, 1997). The mental state of a person can be subjected to strong pressure and cause real illnesses due to job loss (Hiswa?ls, 2017). In general, there is an indisputable fact that unemployment harms not only the economy, but also physical and mental conditions of a reduced worker.

An overview of the technological unemployment impact on different regions and social groups allowed us to identify a number of possible solutions to this problem. Among the solutions were considered urban farms as a suitable business format to reduce the effects of technological unemployment. During the search for solutions to create a favorable working environment, the structure and business model of urban farms were studied as a method of unemployment and social disunity mitigation. The urban farm creates jobs for people with a lack of higher education and increases the inclusiveness of reduced workers and retirees (Nzimande, 2013). Urban farming has an indirect positive effect on neighboring businesses, creating new business network. (Gelan & Seifu, 2016). Case studies observing the creation and integration of urban farms in an urban environment were studied. Steps were described for the creation and development of a urban farm in Neibord (Poulsen & Spiker, 2014). Urban farms were studies in different regions in order to determine a successful business model suitable for this type of activity (Pцlling, et al., 2017).

In addition to scientific papers, analytical reports of international consulting companies demonstrated that certain activities tend more to be automated (Mckinsey, 2017), and also that certain countries have more potential to introduce robot labor (Sirkin, Zinser, & Rose, 2015).

The growing problem of technological unemployment is seen as a global phenomenon that manifests itself in various spheres of economic activity. The existing approach is aimed at finding an equally global solution, but it is not completely clear what effect a solution based on local interventions can have on the problem. It is important to understand what features of small enterprises can be used to successfully create local enterprises in places with a lack of jobs.

1.5 Research questions

In the conditions of the formation of a new class of long-term unemployed, it is necessary to have a clear notion of how to effectively solve this problem on the local level. This study sets the task of determining the available criteria, the analysis of which will make it possible, with a high degree of probability, to create jobs that have the greatest social impact, are financially sustainable, and created in short time. To achieve the task, the answers to the following questions should be found:

o How Moscow is exposed to the problem of unemployment?

o Which social group is the most influenced one?

o What are the spatial criteria of the workplace?

o What type of activity is most preferable in the context of the problem?

o What local factors determine the success of the enterprise?

o What non-local factors determine the success of an enterprise?

Answers to these questions will help develop a methodology for determining the most preferred places for locating new enterprises, as well as develop a tool that helps long-term unemployed people create a new workplace. This tool is planned in the format of a website that includes an interactive map, architectural design, financial and business models.



2. Findings

2.1 Research design

Research objectives were identified according to manifested questions. First task required to study statistical data and making statistical analysis. It was done to determine Moscow as the problematic region. Social group were identified to develop the appropriate solution. Case studies allowed to clarify the key factors, important for proposed methodology.

1. Analyze the statistical data of western labor market and corelate it with Moscow market;

2. Study the impact of automation to certain social classes;

3. Observe the typology of considered territory;

4. Analyze case studies of existing small enterprises (urban farms and social enterprises);

5. Analyze the results and develop methods allowing to create prototype.

The methods used in this study include field observation, literature review, statistical analysis, spatial analysis, using geo-information systems.

2.2 Moscow labor market

The main question that concerns the Moscow region in the context of unemployment - is Moscow a place that is subject to technological unemployment? To answer this question, the American labor market was studied, which already has the effect of technological unemployment. At the moment, these problems are local, but show a significant growth:

1) The e-commerce segment has grown in the USA from 0 to 15% of the retail market over 20 years. Jobs in this segment were created 4 times faster than in the sphere of traditional trade, however, the industry attracts workers in the IT sphere, and each employee is equal to 4 reduced sellers. It is also important that the segment demonstrates an increase of 15% per annum. (Gebeloff & Russel, 2017)

2) A similar trend is observed in the manufacturing, logistics, packaging sectors. From 2000 to 2010, in the USA, 86% of 5.6 million reduced workplaces in factories, were related to the automation. (Reber, 2019)

3) Transport companies are making large investments in the development of autopilot systems. According to Morgan Stanley, by 2035, cars with autopilot will save the world economy up to 5.6 trillion dollars a year, which of course will be due to the reduction of drivers. (Stanley, 2015)

At the same time, in the Moscow news field, there is no reports except one in the banking sector: «Sberbank has reduced 70% of its management due to the introduction of artificial intelligence, the central bank intends to use this experience and reduce staff by 2020.» (Zhandarova, 2018)

However, the analysis of the e-commerce market in comparison with the US data causes concern. Given the fact that the development of e-commerce is accompanied by displace employees in retail segment, this market segment is the most influenced in Moscow. Statistics show a similar trend of growth in the retail market and e-commerce in the United States and Russia.

Figure 1.Percentage change in retail jobs in USA, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics



Figure 2. Percentage change in retail market of Russia. Source Rosstat, AKIT

The years from 2013 to 2018 show a slight stagnation of the market as a whole, with a significant increase in the e-commerce segment. Similar information can be traced on the Moscow warehouse market, in which the share of e-commerce tenants is growing due to the reduction of the retail segment.

Data on workplaces show that the growth of e-commerce employees is accompanied by dismissals in the offline trading market. One created job in the field of IT and Data science had 4 dismissed workers in the field of offline trade.



Figure 3. Net change in retail jobs in USA. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Considering the similar trend in the US and Russian FMCG markets, we can expect a correlation in the dismissal of workers, in particular in the Moscow region. For the calculation of approximate indicators, statistical data available for the Moscow region was used.

A quarter of the working population of the capital is represented in the retail sector. (Mosgorstat, 2017) According to a pessimistic forecast, the share of online retail in Moscow will double over the next 5 years, while a moderate retail market growth is planned at 2-3% level (Efimov, 2018). For 6.7 million Moscow workers there are 1,8 million employees in the retail sector and with a 10% growth in the retail market and a 100% increase in the share of online trading by 2024, the revenue of retailers in Moscow will decrease by 0.5 trillion rubles, given that retail sales account for 27.6% ( 1.8 million people) of the capital's entire labor market, there will also be the largest dismissal. Considering that 700 thousand retail employees are paid up to 40 thousand rubles, a 10% reduction in costs could affect 70 thousand people in one sector of the economy. Such trend gives the confidence in the statement that the Moscow e-commerce market is subject to the creation of technological unemployment.

2.3 Impact of automation to certain classes

Until recently, it was believed that technical progress had the most negative effect on middle-class workers -- ignoring new technologies leads to a loss of competitiveness, so specialists have to master them. Top management is less dependent on new technologies, since most of the work is based on human communication, and for low-skilled workers technology has simplified work rather than being able to replace the employee. (Barany & Siegel, 2015)

Recently, however, companies are developing solutions that can not only facilitate the work of the employee, but completely replace it. To be more precise, several examples are given below:

The company Foxconn in 2016 cut 60 thousand employees, replacing them with robotic assemblers, another 600 large factories in China are going to follow the experience of the company. (Wakefield, 2016)

Google and Tesla are making significant investments in the development of 5th generation drones - fully autonomous cars, ready to go on the streets of American cities in 2020. (Leger, 2019)

In addition to robotic collectors, cleaners, deliverers and others who are engaged in heavy or high-precision physical labor, developed neural networks appear that are able to process incoming information and respond to it in the expected way, Celaton offers solutions for processing incoming documentation - mail, news, faxes, etc. to answer clients or create analytical reports. (Celaton, 2019)

The need for optimization directly derives from cheap labor -- the erroneous view that an increase in wages leads to lower profits has long remained a limiting factor for European capitalists (Weber, 1958). It becomes obvious that it is more profitable to implement the technology with minimal operating costs than to reduce the salary of human staff.

2.4 Moscow districts

Due to the radial-ring structure of the city, the geographical center coincides with the economic one and accumulates the highest concentration of goods and places of employment. As it is expected, rental prices for real estate are reduced from the center to the periphery, with the exception of the historically established prestigious areas Sokol, Kurkino, and others. From the statistical data, we have only the study of the distribution of average wages in the districts of the city, but even such scant statistics show us that people with incomes much higher than average live within the third ring road. This map highlights the districts of Ochakovo, Metrogorodok, Aviomotornaya, Lyublino, Pechatniki, Kapotnya, Vostochnoye Biryulyovo, Zapadnoye Biryulyovo as the poorest in 2009 (Map, 2009). From this list, in 2019, Ochakovo, Metrogorod, Lyublino, Kapotnya, Vostochnoye and Zapadnoye Biryulyovo remained with the lowest cost of renting apartments.

Based on the cost of renting real estate, it would be fair to include areas outside the Moscow Ring Road in consideration, however, pendulum migration is more common for people with average incomes or above average -- people with low wages narrow the geography of their job search. (Stutzer & Frey, undated)

The list of selected areas is united by the building structure, typical of the city's periphery. Distinctive features are an absence of regular structure, a function of recreation, prevailing over other functions. A feature of the development of these areas is that the first floors of the buildings are residential, so the commercial function and jobs are respectively concentrated in a few outbuildings, which causes a lack of areas for business and creating jobs.



Figure 4. Image of district in the center of Moscow Central district

Expressed street front

Small courtyard area

High concentration of commerce and offices

Figure 5. Image of district on the periphery of Moscow Periphery district

Lack of street front

Large yard areas

Residential first floors

Monofunctionality

This structure of peripheral areas limits the development of commerce due to the lack of suitable premises. New business requires the construction of new buildings for the production of goods and services. Taking into account the large courtyard areas, they can become an affordable location for the placement of new objects. In this case, the building must meet the requirements of ease of production, modularity and correspond to the scale of the territory.

2.5 Small businesses as a solution

Individual entrepreneurship, by its structure, is an ideal format for the production of non-technological goods and the provision of everyday services. In the world there are many business models for the monetization of private business - subscriptions, crowdfunding, contracts with the state, institutions, subscriptions, etc. The individual entrepreneur has the potential for further growth and division of labor, although it is limited by the maximum permissible number of employees.

2.5.1 Social enterprise

Social enterprise is a relatively young form of entrepreneurial activity, which does not have a separate expression in the legislation of the Russian Federation. The fact that they are financially stable and do not depend on philanthropists and grants mainly differs social enterprises from Non-profit organizations (NPO). The basic principles of a social enterprise are democratic governance, in which each employee has one vote, the enterprise functions with respect to the environment, the company's business model should function without grants, subsidies and other types of donations. (Saebi, Foss, & Linder, 2018)

The goals of a social enterprise are not only to achieve profits, but also to create social influence, often of a local nature. Also, operating around a single social unit, a social enterprise can be replicated in other territories, in order to proportionally increase the influence exerted.

Despite the absence of a legal field regulating the activities of a social enterprise in Russia, the principle of horizontal democratic governance can be adopted and used in the formation of an enterprise for dismissed workers.

2.5.2 Urban farm

Another activity located at the junction of a social and commercial enterprise is a urban agriculture. The format known since the creation of cities and disappeared during industrialization has found its niche in the cities of the 21st century around the world. (Green, 2012) An urban farm can operate in any type of business activity - from an unregistered individual (in countries with loyal attitude or lack of control), up to a large company with several hundred employees. United Nations Report (1998) described the urban farm as a place of food production, a mechanism for creating jobs and as a way to develop the sustainability of the city. (UN, 1998)

As there is no average urban farmer, there is no average urban farm, but the generally accepted definition says that an urban farm is a unit that produces, processes and sells food, fuel or other goods associated with the daily consumption of people living in an urban environment. Typically, an urban farm uses intensive production methods, reusing natural resources and urban trash, to extract a variety of benefits from flora and fauna, in terms of food, health, and habitat. With all the abundance of planning decisions and economic approaches, the model of urban farms is determined by several general principles. First of all, a city farm is a social object, often supported and developed by volunteer forces, a project aimed at creating food security within the region (Viljoen, Bohn, & Howe, 2005). The main asset of the farm is a territory suitable for the cultivation of plants or raising animals, and until recently the study of business models of urban farms was not a priority for researchers.

Nevertheless, a study based on a comparison of European farms highlighted their common characteristics. First of all, the study showed that the approach to planning an urban farm is very different from the classic business plan; instead, it is proposed to use a new business model, such as the Business Model Canvas, or the Osterwalder model. The study identified three of the most common business models - differentiation, diversification, as well as low cost-oriented specialization. Farms that operate on low-cost models are concentrated on the production of goods that require small investments, but due to the advantages of the location they can receive a greater income from the sale. The business model of differentiation involves the separation of streams of profit between different consumers - a chain of stores, markets, the final consumer. Direct sales are the basis of this business model - the farm sells a product that has its own brand and recognition from regular customers. (Pцlling, et al., 2017)

Most of the considered farms complement the agricultural and educational activities and entertainment. Diversified farm activities create more jobs per hectare than low-cost oriented farms. In addition to agricultural diversification, there is diversification in agriculture - urban farms are trying to increase inclusiveness, playing a powerful social role in supporting the disabled, prisoners, people with disabilities. A number of farms use a combined model, for example, differentiating the supply channels of a branded product and diversifying services, conducting master classes for visitors.

2.6 Territorial factors of enterprises

Emerging industry of urban farms caused by the appearance of startups that create large enterprises using the values of the urban farm. Such transformations cause optimization processes, which is expressed in automation and the replacement of low-skilled workers with highly skilled workers. To avoid a similar problem in project design, territorial factors must be interpreted in favor of maintaining local community and reducing competitive pressure from the existing business.

Population density. The number of people living within a 5-minute walking distance is the main audience of the company, since the formation of a permanent loyal audience is possible with regular contact. The considered areas have different average number of floors and building density. The five-storey building of Khrushchev has a balance of density and compactness, which allows residents to maintain neighboring relations and at the same time has a sufficient number of people to generate sufficient demand. This is equivalent to 5,000 people living in an area within 5 minutes walking distance. The range of population concentration values ??is reduced to a general scale of 1-20, where 1 corresponds to the minimum concentration of the population in the area, and 20 to the maximum.

Commercial. Existing shops and cafes are the few that add functionality to sleeping areas. A visual review revealed the concentration of such establishments in places that can be described as a transport hub of the area - a metro station, the main bus or tram stop. Pedestrian flow is formed in these places and there is a stable trade, especially during peak hours. However, quantitative GIS analysis is required in each specific area. Due to differences in the business model of the small business and the enterprise being created in terms of the customer relationship, the neighborhood with the existing business is a negative factor in the choice of location. Commercial clusters are classified on a scale of 0 -- the absence of a cluster of up to 10 -- the largest cluster of a district.

Street network. Despite the randomness of buildings in micro districts, they have an extensive network of access roads and any part of the micro district is located near the road, nevertheless due to narrow passages and dead ends, some sections of roads are used more often than others, this is clearly seen on maps with GPS tracks.

Since the main activities are associated with the most used roads, the areas in the distance require development primarily. Identifying the most used and unused streets with the help of GPS track interpretation allows to classify territories in terms of their involvement in transportation activity. The degree of distance is determined by the generation of buffers from active streets in increments of 20 meters, until the territory is completely filled. Buffers have an attribute, varied from the closest to the road, to the one located deep in the area. This gradation allows to create an index of activity of the territory.

Universal index. Possessing different quantitative characteristics, population density, commercial activities and street network are proposed to lead to a universal index, where a static population acts as an asset to create a loyal audience and a generator of weak ties, and existing commerce and active streets are a negatively influencing factor. Having a range of 1-20 for the population, 0-10 for commerce and 1-10 for activity of the territory, the difference of population and business with the streets is a range of the order of 10-10, which is not affected by the size of the area due to standardized ranges. The use of this method requires the availability of data on the number of population, the location of commerce and the activity of using streets. A detailed example of use with data sources is given in the practical part of this work..

2.7 Non-territorial factors of enterprises

In addition to the quantitative characteristics of the site, the enterprise is influenced by qualitative characteristics, be it the availability of labor and its specialization, the direction of the business and the source of start-up capital.

Workers. Unlike in developed countries, where low-paid job placement is often a temporary solution, the study shows that a large proportion of Russians choose low-paid jobs guided by other principles. The reasons include the fear of losing a job for a long time when looking for a new one, unwillingness or inability to master skills and specialties, high competition (Zemtsov, 2017). Therefore, the lack of highly skilled workers is expressed in the activities of the farm focused on manual labor, handicraft, art. These types of activities allow to improve the skill in the process of production of goods, without the need for long-term, expensive training.

Sociology. Pursuing the main goal of creating new jobs, the project addresses several social problems, giving the solution to them. Jobs are created taking into account the dignity of Labor. Giving people workplaces, the social significance of their occupancy grows, which leads to decrease of criminogenic situation caused by unemployment decreases. The yard, which has recently lost its public function, acquires regular visitors, engaged in a positive affair. The production project should not be limited to its own walls, but should be associated with the entire block.

One of the trends observed in the field of urban farms is their transformation into medium-sized businesses caused by to competition with major manufacturers. Such transformation of a working enterprise can have a negative impact on employment, therefore the original business plan should not be based on competition with commercial enterprises. Instead, competition should occur at the local level, due to the positioning of services and goods under the brand of the place. The whole idea of ??the project is based on human labor, therefore maintaining the social aspect is extremely important throughout the entire life cycle of the enterprise.

Finances. Despite the social orientation of working farms, their form of activity remains an enterprise, and must function, bringing income to its employees. Given the target group, which can be described as people without accumulation, the issue of start-up capital becomes relevant. The existing policy regarding the unemployed in Russia implies unemployment benefit in the amount of 4,600 rubles (2019) or a one-time payment for the development of small business in the amount of 50 thousand rubles (2019). These funds are not sufficient for the development of a working enterprise, therefore the strategy of a new business implies inclusion in starting capital attracting loan money to provide the construction and purchase the equipment. Taking into account the absence of savings as one of the criteria of the social class under consideration, special attention is paid to minimizing its size. Since the main component of capital expenditures falls on a building, a universal design approach reduces the cost of scalability. Non-capital construction of the building, also due to territorial features allows to save on the foundation and structural elements. An example of such a project that can be chosen as a basis is presented in the relevant section of the practical part. The revenues of the enterprise are diversified according to the business model of the urban farm. Besides the main product, which is low-cost oriented, local events are regularly included in the activities of the enterprise. Thus, financial stability is achieved through the provision of services or the sale of goods produced at enterprise facilities, and the adjacent territory can be used for public events - festivals, fairs, workshops.



2.8 Study scope and limitations

In the course of this study, methodologies were developed for determining the most preferable places for creating a new enterprise. The results of this study are applicable in areas that are identified as the most vulnerable to unemployment. At the microdistrict level, the scope of research is limited by local factors that have a direct impact on the success of the enterprise. Extrapolation of the methodology to the whole city causes the occurrence of errors caused by the emergence of global factors, such as unpredictability of traffic flows, a variety of types of development, pendulum migration and others. Nevertheless, the application of methods is possible in areas of other cities that have a similar regional layout, the main factor requiring verification is the presence of a similar problem, a sufficient level of concentration of the population to create demand and availability of data, required for analysis.

Conclusion

Based on a comparison of US and Russian retail markets, the problem of technological unemployment was identified in Moscow. The coincidence of trends in the growth of the e-commerce segment suggests that the problem faced in developed countries is equally valid for the territory in question. A review of the influence of the automation trend on various social classes revealed that the class of low-skilled workers is most susceptible to layoffs. It was separately noted that the layer of this class in Russia is stable and broad, representatives of this class do not have the savings and the ability to master new specialties, which makes it especially vulnerable. The analysis of statistical data on various districts of Moscow made it possible to identify the territories inside the city for which this problem is particularly relevant. An analysis of the typology of the identified areas showed general characteristics, on the basis of which the need to create new facilities for locating enterprises was identified.

As a basis for solving the problem of technological unemployment, the projects of the urban farm and social enterprise were considered. Their relevance is due to the solution of the problem of unemployment and the activation of urban spaces, due to social activity. A detailed study of the business models of these types of enterprises made it possible to determine the business model and format of the enterprise that is appropriate in the context of the Moscow residential areas.

At the same time, there are a number of limitations, in particular the fact that the creation and management of new enterprises based entirely on reduced workers, implies difficulties in competing with the existing business. Also, there are concerns about the functioning of the enterprise within the framework of the registration of an individual entrepreneur, since the principle of democratic decision-making can be challenged by the founder.

Thus, the creation of new business enterprises in residential neighborhoods can solve the growing problem of technological unemployment and activate monofunctional space. It is necessary to determine the territories remote from the places of activities, and to create a new architectural object, through which to increase the number of functions located in micro district.



3. Project proposal

Considering the problem of developing technological unemployment, a methodology was developed for locating new jobs. The goal of this method is to simplify job creation with dismissed, low-skilled workers. Massive cuts are expected due to the high pace of development of automation, which leads to a shortage of jobs for people with low levels of skills. The methodology is based on the analysis of territorial factors at the local level and an assessment of the ability of employees to develop a certain type of business. The result of the project is the development of software that, based on the method studied, offers a set of practical actions to create a workplace. The problem posed by the development of technological unemployment is reflected in a number of Moscow districts, one of which, Metrogorodok, was chosen as a testing polygon for applying the method in relation to the territory. The importance of this prototype lies in the absence of practical steps that lead to the solution of a dualistic situation in which the increase in production efficiency leads to social instability and loss of income of individual workers. The prototype identifies the most favorable areas in which the development of the proposed enterprise does not face competition with large corporations, after identifying such places, collecting data on the preferences of a particular employee and creating a financial model that demonstrates the sustainability of the proposed solution. Additionally, an architectural project has been developed that meets the requirements laid down in the functionality of the farm.

3.1 Metrogorogok district

The figure represents the spatial structure of Metrogorodok district. It demonstrates the absence of regular structure, concentration of commercial premises along the main street and distribution of social infrastructure throughout of district.

Figure 6. Functional scheme of Metrogorodok district

The modern metropolitan area covers an area of 2,757 hectares, most of which is Park “Losinyi Ostrov”, however the entire residential development of the district is concentrated on the plot of 100 hectares, which is going to be studied.

38.9 thousand people live in the district, official statistics indicate a rather modest population density of 1,410 people / km2, however, given the locality of living in an area of 1 km2, the actual density is about 38 thousand people per km2, which makes it one of the most compact and dense areas of Moscow de facto.

The village of Metrostroy, created in the 30s of the twentieth century for the needs of the construction of the metro, gained its shape after the war, by the captive Germans 2-3 storey houses were built, parks and squares were created. The district got its modern look in the 50s, being built up with five-storey large-panel houses. Nowadays, on the border of the district, residential houses of later series appeared, but in common, the structure has reached our days without changes. Neighborhoods that included into Metrogorodok are built up according to various principles - located to the south of the Otkrytoye Highway, they have perimeter buildings, to the north - mostly in-line. Line building has improved insolation and aeration compared to perimeter, which in turn forms a kind of closed, quieter environment. A characteristic feature of the building is residential first floors, with a complete lack of premises for commercial activities. Some houses acquired outbuildings; in addition, several separate-standing objects for shops were built. Social infrastructure is a legacy of the Soviet town-planning model - the district is provided with kindergartens, schools, and polyclinics.

The main mode of transport is the tram line, which runs in the middle of the district, the main points of trade are concentrated around the tram stops along the Otkrytoye Highway.

Due to the fact that the area is built up with houses of the type series, it is possible to accurately determine the distribution of tenants for each particular house, and in combination with a limited set of attractors - to make a model of standard movement, which will determine the most passable parts of the area.

3.2 Site analysis

For the application of the developed technique, a hexagonal grid with a diagonal of 12 meters was superimposed on the territory of the metropolitan. This made it possible to divide the territory of the district into sections, which are subsequently analyzed for a suitable location.

To determine the factor of population density, datasets with the population of houses was used. To create a cell attribute, a distance matrix was used: distances from each cell to each house with a population attribute were calculated, after which all results over 500m were screened out. The summed population results were assigned to the cells.

A similar approach was used to determine the number of commercial premises. It was used with data on the location of shops, cafes, bars and other amenities. Then, applying the distance matrix to the cells and polygons of the institutions and further filtering distances over 500 meters, the numerical values for each cell were determined.

Identification of active sites was difficult due to the lack of data on movements in open access. An alternative approach was taken: a raster map was used with the image of the recorded GPS tracks of Yandex.Maps users. Using raster analysis in QGIS, existing elements of the street network were assigned the status of active-used or not. Buffers were built from active-used streets with a step of 20 meters to completely fill the area. Each buffer was assigned a value in accordance with the degree of distance from the active streets. The buffer attributes were written to the cells of the initially created grid.

In addition to the listed analyzes, an additional classification of the territory on the basis of land use was carried out. Using a dataset with territorial zoning, a layer was created with the division of the territory under municipal objects and the territory adjacent to the buildings. This step was taken primarily to inform the user about the status of the territory, since it affects the identification of the landlord. In each case, this status is interpreted based on the willingness or unwillingness of the municipality to provide conditions for the lease of the territory.

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