Factors of successful protection from pressure on business
Concept and economic essence of property rights. Justification and development of the business protection model against possible damage to business activities caused by the influence various external and internal market factors and economic conditions.
| Рубрика | Экономико-математическое моделирование |
| Вид | дипломная работа |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 11.08.2020 |
| Размер файла | 5,0 M |
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anova(logit_1, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
##
## Model: binomial, link: logit
##
## Response: is_working
##
## Terms added sequentially (first to last)
##
##
## Df Deviance Resid. Df Resid. Dev
## NULL 431 598.13
## largest_fed_districts 7 12.199 424 585.93
## macro_okved_code_group 8 46.147 416 539.78
## spark_stock_ticket 1 2.573 415 537.21
## administrative_position 1 2.574 414 534.64
## administrative_connections 1 0.244 413 534.39
## in_political_party 1 1.016 412 533.38
## in_association_or_sro 1 10.947 411 522.43
## case_publications 1 3.416 410 519.01
## criminal_prosecution 1 1.679 409 517.33
## capture 1 1.981 408 515.35
## corruption 1 0.170 407 515.18
## barriers 1 1.900 406 513.28
## have_court_case 1 1.138 405 512.15
## is_guilty 1 0.297 404 511.85
## max_bac_stage 6 6.567 398 505.28
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 7.336 397 497.95
## reaction_consultation 1 3.038 396 494.91
## reaction_target_letters_control 1 0.085 395 494.82
## reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 1.962 394 492.86
## to_ombudsman 1 0.539 393 492.32
## age_till_application_date 1 1.013 392 491.31
## category_by_size_melse 1 0.078 391 491.23
## Pr(>Chi)
## NULL
## largest_fed_districts 0.0942070 .
## macro_okved_code_group 2.229e-07 ***
## spark_stock_ticket 0.1087155
## administrative_position 0.1086391
## administrative_connections 0.6211477
## in_political_party 0.3135044
## in_association_or_sro 0.0009374 ***
## case_publications 0.0645717 .
## criminal_prosecution 0.1950853
## capture 0.1593041
## corruption 0.6803438
## barriers 0.1680880
## have_court_case 0.2860945
## is_guilty 0.5855213
## max_bac_stage 0.3627333
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 0.0067569 **
## reaction_consultation 0.0813474 .
## reaction_target_letters_control 0.7706095
## reaction_not_passed_by_bac 0.1613423
## to_ombudsman 0.4630120
## age_till_application_date 0.3140873
## category_by_size_melse 0.7799784
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
And after manual feature selection.
is_working_vars <-c(
# "federal_districts",
# "largest_fed_districts",
# "macro_okved_code",
# "spark_web_site",
# "spark_stock_ticket",
#"administrative_position",
#"administrative_connections",
"in_political_party",
"in_association_or_sro",
"case_publications",
# "criminal_prosecution",
"capture", "corruption", "barriers",
# "have_court_case",
# "is_guilty",
"reaction_not_passed_by_applicant",
#"reaction_consultation",
"reaction_target_letters_control",
#"reaction_not_passed_by_bac",
"to_ombudsman",
"macro_okved_code_group",
"age_till_application_date",
#missing data
#"category_by_size_missing", # 554
#"category_by_size_melse",
#"category_by_size_2_cat",
#"auth_capital_group",
"is_working"
)
is_working_data <-dataset[is_working_vars]
is_working_data$macro_okved_code_group <-factor(is_working_data$macro_okved_code_group)
logit_1<-glm(is_working~., family = binomial,data = is_working_data)
summary(logit_1)
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = is_working ~ ., family = binomial, data = is_working_data)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.8815 -0.9788 -0.5235 1.0334 2.0355
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -1.05815 0.36412 -2.906
## in_political_party 0.68121 0.32376 2.104
## in_association_or_sro 1.10503 0.23012 4.802
## case_publications -0.32999 0.24684 -1.337
## capture -0.32527 0.23965 -1.357
## corruption -0.02490 0.38510 -0.065
## barriers 0.60291 0.34377 1.754
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant -0.72237 0.30863 -2.341
## reaction_target_letters_control 0.02892 0.30543 0.095
## to_ombudsman 0.15713 0.32896 0.478
## macro_okved_code_groupFinancial_insurance -0.77440 0.59985 -1.291
## macro_okved_code_groupmanufacturing 0.57005 0.34649 1.645
## macro_okved_code_groupother_categories 1.17838 0.37445 3.147
## macro_okved_code_groupreal_estate 1.89329 0.46286 4.090
## macro_okved_code_grouprural 1.38270 0.51995 2.659
## macro_okved_code_groupScience 0.31905 0.39187 0.814
## macro_okved_code_groupTrading -0.27374 0.35074 -0.780
## macro_okved_code_groupTransportation 0.50466 0.56216 0.898
## age_till_application_date 0.03440 0.01755 1.961
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.00366 **
## in_political_party 0.03537 *
## in_association_or_sro 1.57e-06 ***
## case_publications 0.18127
## capture 0.17470
## corruption 0.94844
## barriers 0.07946 .
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 0.01926 *
## reaction_target_letters_control 0.92456
## to_ombudsman 0.63288
## macro_okved_code_groupFinancial_insurance 0.19671
## macro_okved_code_groupmanufacturing 0.09992 .
## macro_okved_code_groupother_categories 0.00165 **
## macro_okved_code_groupreal_estate 4.31e-05 ***
## macro_okved_code_grouprural 0.00783 **
## macro_okved_code_groupScience 0.41554
## macro_okved_code_groupTrading 0.43511
## macro_okved_code_groupTransportation 0.36933
## age_till_application_date 0.04990 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 666.57 on 481 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 568.85 on 463 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 606.85
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
car::vif(logit_1)
## GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## in_political_party 1.100315 1 1.048959
## in_association_or_sro 1.172148 1 1.082658
## case_publications 1.212876 1 1.101306
## capture 1.142811 1 1.069023
## corruption 1.051254 1 1.025307
## barriers 1.323554 1 1.150458
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1.128049 1 1.062096
## reaction_target_letters_control 1.160679 1 1.077348
## to_ombudsman 1.324444 1 1.150845
## macro_okved_code_group 1.451685 8 1.023569
## age_till_application_date 1.085150 1 1.041705
anova(logit_1, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
##
## Model: binomial, link: logit
##
## Response: is_working
##
## Terms added sequentially (first to last)
##
##
## Df Deviance Resid. Df Resid. Dev
## NULL 481 666.57
## in_political_party 1 8.723 480 657.84
## in_association_or_sro 1 20.292 479 637.55
## case_publications 1 0.049 478 637.50
## capture 1 2.696 477 634.81
## corruption 1 0.054 476 634.75
## barriers 1 4.928 475 629.83
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 9.310 474 620.51
## reaction_target_letters_control 1 0.123 473 620.39
## to_ombudsman 1 2.553 472 617.84
## macro_okved_code_group 8 45.115 464 572.72
## age_till_application_date 1 3.871 463 568.85
## Pr(>Chi)
## NULL
## in_political_party 0.003143 **
## in_association_or_sro 6.649e-06 ***
## case_publications 0.824858
## capture 0.100593
## corruption 0.815850
## barriers 0.026427 *
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 0.002279 **
## reaction_target_letters_control 0.725472
## to_ombudsman 0.110076
## macro_okved_code_group 3.500e-07 ***
## age_till_application_date 0.049131 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
hoslem.test(is_working_data$is_working, fitted(logit_1))
##
## Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
##
## data: is_working_data$is_working, fitted(logit_1)
## X-squared = 4.984, df = 8, p-value = 0.7593
Comparing with AIC maximization algorithm the main variables are the same:
is_working_vars <-c(
"largest_fed_districts",
"macro_okved_code_group",
#"spark_web_site",
"spark_stock_ticket",
"administrative_position",
"administrative_connections",
"in_political_party",
"in_association_or_sro",
"case_publications",
"criminal_prosecution",
"capture", "corruption", "barriers",
"have_court_case",
"is_guilty",
#"reviewed_by_bac",
#"supported_by_bac_public_council",
# "max_bac_stage",
"cop_stage",
"reaction_not_passed_by_applicant",
"reaction_consultation",
"reaction_target_letters_control",
"reaction_not_passed_by_bac",
"to_ombudsman",
"age_till_application_date",
#missing data
#"category_by_size_missing",
#"category_by_size_melse",
#"category_by_size_2_cat",
#"auth_capital_group",
"is_working")
is_working_data <-dataset[is_working_vars]
#is_working_data <- is_working_data[!is.na(is_working_data$auth_capital_group),]
#missmap(is_working_data)
is_working_data$largest_fed_districts <-factor(is_working_data$largest_fed_districts)
is_working_data$macro_okved_code_group <-factor(is_working_data$macro_okved_code_group)
is_working_data$cop_stage <-factor(is_working_data$cop_stage)
#is_working_data$auth_capital_group <- factor(is_working_data$auth_capital_group)
#is_working_data$category_by_size_missing <- factor(is_working_data$category_by_size_missing)
logit_1<-glm(is_working~., family = binomial,data = is_working_data)
#summary(logit_1)
logit_2<-stepAIC(logit_1)
## Start: AIC=625.38
## is_working ~ largest_fed_districts + macro_okved_code_group +
## spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position + administrative_connections +
## in_political_party + in_association_or_sro + case_publications +
## criminal_prosecution + capture + corruption + barriers +
## have_court_case + is_guilty + cop_stage + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + reaction_target_letters_control +
## reaction_not_passed_by_bac + to_ombudsman + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - largest_fed_districts 7 559.52 617.52
## - cop_stage 2 553.75 621.75
## - corruption 1 553.47 623.47
## - criminal_prosecution 1 553.54 623.54
## - reaction_target_letters_control 1 553.59 623.59
## - to_ombudsman 1 553.61 623.61
## - reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 553.72 623.72
## - administrative_connections 1 553.81 623.81
## - administrative_position 1 554.05 624.05
## - is_guilty 1 554.11 624.11
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 554.20 624.20
## - have_court_case 1 554.66 624.66
## - case_publications 1 554.68 624.68
## - capture 1 554.98 624.98
## - in_political_party 1 555.02 625.02
## - barriers 1 555.36 625.36
## <none> 553.38 625.38
## - age_till_application_date 1 555.71 625.71
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 557.69 627.69
## - reaction_consultation 1 557.93 627.93
## - in_association_or_sro 1 576.94 646.94
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 596.78 652.78
##
## Step: AIC=617.52
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + criminal_prosecution + capture + corruption +
## barriers + have_court_case + is_guilty + cop_stage + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + reaction_target_letters_control +
## reaction_not_passed_by_bac + to_ombudsman + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - cop_stage 2 559.94 613.94
## - corruption 1 559.64 615.64
## - criminal_prosecution 1 559.79 615.79
## - reaction_target_letters_control 1 559.82 615.82
## - to_ombudsman 1 559.84 615.84
## - reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 560.09 616.09
## - administrative_connections 1 560.21 616.21
## - administrative_position 1 560.24 616.24
## - is_guilty 1 560.46 616.46
## - case_publications 1 560.57 616.57
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 560.68 616.68
## - barriers 1 560.84 616.84
## - have_court_case 1 561.18 617.18
## <none> 559.52 617.52
## - in_political_party 1 561.66 617.66
## - capture 1 561.80 617.80
## - age_till_application_date 1 562.55 618.55
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 563.19 619.19
## - reaction_consultation 1 563.72 619.72
## - in_association_or_sro 1 583.70 639.70
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 605.38 647.38
##
## Step: AIC=613.94
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + criminal_prosecution + capture + corruption +
## barriers + have_court_case + is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + reaction_target_letters_control +
## reaction_not_passed_by_bac + to_ombudsman + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - reaction_target_letters_control 1 559.99 611.99
## - corruption 1 560.06 612.06
## - criminal_prosecution 1 560.24 612.24
## - reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 560.41 612.41
## - to_ombudsman 1 560.43 612.43
## - administrative_position 1 560.71 612.71
## - administrative_connections 1 560.77 612.77
## - is_guilty 1 560.81 612.81
## - case_publications 1 561.00 613.00
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 561.03 613.03
## - barriers 1 561.22 613.22
## - have_court_case 1 561.57 613.57
## <none> 559.94 613.94
## - in_political_party 1 562.07 614.07
## - capture 1 562.41 614.41
## - age_till_application_date 1 562.93 614.93
## - reaction_consultation 1 563.80 615.80
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 563.98 615.98
## - in_association_or_sro 1 583.88 635.88
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 605.87 643.87
##
## Step: AIC=611.99
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + criminal_prosecution + capture + corruption +
## barriers + have_court_case + is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + reaction_not_passed_by_bac + to_ombudsman +
## age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - corruption 1 560.10 610.10
## - criminal_prosecution 1 560.26 610.26
## - reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 560.43 610.43
## - to_ombudsman 1 560.44 610.44
## - administrative_position 1 560.77 610.77
## - administrative_connections 1 560.81 610.81
## - is_guilty 1 560.82 610.82
## - case_publications 1 561.02 611.02
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 561.10 611.10
## - barriers 1 561.38 611.38
## - have_court_case 1 561.62 611.62
## <none> 559.99 611.99
## - in_political_party 1 562.10 612.10
## - capture 1 562.46 612.46
## - age_till_application_date 1 562.94 612.94
## - reaction_consultation 1 563.82 613.82
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 564.38 614.38
## - in_association_or_sro 1 584.07 634.07
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 605.95 641.95
##
## Step: AIC=610.1
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + criminal_prosecution + capture + barriers +
## have_court_case + is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + reaction_not_passed_by_bac + to_ombudsman +
## age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - criminal_prosecution 1 560.29 608.29
## - reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 560.52 608.52
## - to_ombudsman 1 560.55 608.55
## - administrative_position 1 560.88 608.88
## - administrative_connections 1 560.95 608.95
## - is_guilty 1 560.98 608.98
## - case_publications 1 561.11 609.11
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 561.17 609.17
## - have_court_case 1 561.82 609.82
## - barriers 1 561.83 609.83
## <none> 560.10 610.10
## - in_political_party 1 562.23 610.23
## - capture 1 562.50 610.50
## - age_till_application_date 1 563.08 611.08
## - reaction_consultation 1 563.86 611.86
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 564.46 612.46
## - in_association_or_sro 1 584.19 632.19
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 606.69 640.69
##
## Step: AIC=608.29
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + capture + barriers + have_court_case +
## is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant + reaction_consultation +
## reaction_not_passed_by_bac + to_ombudsman + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - reaction_not_passed_by_bac 1 560.71 606.71
## - to_ombudsman 1 560.89 606.89
## - administrative_position 1 561.02 607.02
## - administrative_connections 1 561.11 607.11
## - is_guilty 1 561.16 607.16
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 561.41 607.41
## - case_publications 1 561.43 607.43
## - have_court_case 1 561.99 607.99
## <none> 560.29 608.29
## - in_political_party 1 562.46 608.46
## - capture 1 562.68 608.68
## - age_till_application_date 1 563.29 609.29
## - reaction_consultation 1 564.00 610.00
## - barriers 1 564.09 610.09
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 564.59 610.59
## - in_association_or_sro 1 584.20 630.20
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 607.78 639.78
##
## Step: AIC=606.71
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + capture + barriers + have_court_case +
## is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant + reaction_consultation +
## to_ombudsman + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - to_ombudsman 1 561.26 605.26
## - administrative_position 1 561.39 605.39
## - is_guilty 1 561.52 605.52
## - administrative_connections 1 561.59 605.59
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 561.79 605.79
## - case_publications 1 561.81 605.81
## - have_court_case 1 562.33 606.33
## <none> 560.71 606.71
## - capture 1 562.94 606.94
## - in_political_party 1 562.96 606.96
## - age_till_application_date 1 563.65 607.65
## - barriers 1 564.57 608.57
## - reaction_consultation 1 564.63 608.63
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 565.24 609.24
## - in_association_or_sro 1 584.60 628.60
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 608.45 638.45
##
## Step: AIC=605.26
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_position +
## administrative_connections + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + capture + barriers + have_court_case +
## is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant + reaction_consultation +
## age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - administrative_position 1 561.94 603.94
## - administrative_connections 1 562.03 604.03
## - is_guilty 1 562.04 604.04
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 562.30 604.30
## - case_publications 1 562.57 604.57
## - have_court_case 1 562.83 604.83
## <none> 561.26 605.26
## - capture 1 563.27 605.27
## - in_political_party 1 563.65 605.65
## - age_till_application_date 1 564.26 606.26
## - reaction_consultation 1 564.98 606.98
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 566.47 608.47
## - barriers 1 567.09 609.09
## - in_association_or_sro 1 585.00 627.00
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 611.53 639.53
##
## Step: AIC=603.94
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + administrative_connections +
## in_political_party + in_association_or_sro + case_publications +
## capture + barriers + have_court_case + is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - administrative_connections 1 562.35 602.35
## - is_guilty 1 562.84 602.84
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 563.14 603.14
## - case_publications 1 563.27 603.27
## - have_court_case 1 563.55 603.55
## <none> 561.94 603.94
## - capture 1 564.11 604.11
## - age_till_application_date 1 565.02 605.02
## - reaction_consultation 1 565.68 605.68
## - in_political_party 1 567.22 607.22
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 567.35 607.35
## - barriers 1 567.65 607.65
## - in_association_or_sro 1 585.15 625.15
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 611.55 637.55
##
## Step: AIC=602.35
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + in_political_party +
## in_association_or_sro + case_publications + capture + barriers +
## have_court_case + is_guilty + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - is_guilty 1 563.16 601.16
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 563.60 601.60
## - have_court_case 1 563.80 601.80
## <none> 562.35 602.35
## - case_publications 1 564.37 602.37
## - capture 1 564.42 602.42
## - age_till_application_date 1 565.35 603.35
## - reaction_consultation 1 566.07 604.07
## - in_political_party 1 567.23 605.23
## - barriers 1 567.84 605.84
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 568.04 606.04
## - in_association_or_sro 1 585.15 623.15
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 611.76 635.76
##
## Step: AIC=601.16
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + in_political_party +
## in_association_or_sro + case_publications + capture + barriers +
## have_court_case + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant + reaction_consultation +
## age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - have_court_case 1 563.80 599.80
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 564.26 600.26
## - case_publications 1 565.16 601.16
## <none> 563.16 601.16
## - capture 1 565.49 601.49
## - age_till_application_date 1 566.27 602.27
## - reaction_consultation 1 566.94 602.94
## - in_political_party 1 567.92 603.92
## - barriers 1 568.51 604.51
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 568.84 604.84
## - in_association_or_sro 1 585.74 621.74
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 612.85 634.85
##
## Step: AIC=599.8
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + spark_stock_ticket + in_political_party +
## in_association_or_sro + case_publications + capture + barriers +
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant + reaction_consultation +
## age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - spark_stock_ticket 1 564.93 598.93
## <none> 563.80 599.80
## - case_publications 1 565.92 599.92
## - capture 1 566.02 600.02
## - age_till_application_date 1 567.00 601.00
## - reaction_consultation 1 567.30 601.30
## - in_political_party 1 568.46 602.46
## - barriers 1 569.06 603.06
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 569.74 603.74
## - in_association_or_sro 1 586.09 620.09
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 613.33 633.33
##
## Step: AIC=598.93
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## case_publications + capture + barriers + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## - case_publications 1 566.90 598.90
## <none> 564.93 598.93
## - capture 1 567.31 599.31
## - age_till_application_date 1 568.71 600.71
## - reaction_consultation 1 569.08 601.08
## - in_political_party 1 569.59 601.59
## - barriers 1 569.94 601.94
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 570.81 602.81
## - in_association_or_sro 1 588.26 620.26
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 614.68 632.68
##
## Step: AIC=598.9
## is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + in_political_party + in_association_or_sro +
## capture + barriers + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant + reaction_consultation +
## age_till_application_date
##
## Df Deviance AIC
## <none> 566.90 598.90
## - capture 1 569.37 599.37
## - age_till_application_date 1 570.26 600.26
## - in_political_party 1 570.74 600.74
## - reaction_consultation 1 571.02 601.02
## - reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 571.97 601.97
## - barriers 1 573.12 603.12
## - in_association_or_sro 1 588.76 618.76
## - macro_okved_code_group 8 614.83 630.83
summary(logit_2)
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = is_working ~ macro_okved_code_group + in_political_party +
## in_association_or_sro + capture + barriers + reaction_not_passed_by_applicant +
## reaction_consultation + age_till_application_date, family = binomial,
## data = is_working_data)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.8932 -1.0034 -0.5131 1.0265 2.0869
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -1.23558 0.33213 -3.720
## macro_okved_code_groupFinancial_insurance -0.85385 0.60805 -1.404
## macro_okved_code_groupmanufacturing 0.54151 0.34550 1.567
## macro_okved_code_groupother_categories 1.11831 0.36726 3.045
## macro_okved_code_groupreal_estate 1.86308 0.45842 4.064
## macro_okved_code_grouprural 1.38961 0.51760 2.685
## macro_okved_code_groupScience 0.31963 0.39015 0.819
## macro_okved_code_groupTrading -0.30549 0.35055 -0.871
## macro_okved_code_groupTransportation 0.29934 0.57239 0.523
## in_political_party 0.61422 0.31710 1.937
## in_association_or_sro 1.03965 0.22714 4.577
## capture -0.36482 0.23319 -1.564
## barriers 0.77282 0.31353 2.465
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant -0.65564 0.29621 -2.213
## reaction_consultation 1.41282 0.73412 1.925
## age_till_application_date 0.03202 0.01750 1.830
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.000199 ***
## macro_okved_code_groupFinancial_insurance 0.160249
## macro_okved_code_groupmanufacturing 0.117043
## macro_okved_code_groupother_categories 0.002327 **
## macro_okved_code_groupreal_estate 4.82e-05 ***
## macro_okved_code_grouprural 0.007259 **
## macro_okved_code_groupScience 0.412649
## macro_okved_code_groupTrading 0.383503
## macro_okved_code_groupTransportation 0.601003
## in_political_party 0.052750 .
## in_association_or_sro 4.71e-06 ***
## capture 0.117703
## barriers 0.013706 *
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 0.026866 *
## reaction_consultation 0.054292 .
## age_till_application_date 0.067324 .
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 666.57 on 481 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 566.90 on 466 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 598.9
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
car::vif(logit_2)
## GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## macro_okved_code_group 1.342677 8 1.018587
## in_political_party 1.062073 1 1.030569
## in_association_or_sro 1.138713 1 1.067105
## capture 1.069224 1 1.034033
## barriers 1.100270 1 1.048937
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1.037160 1 1.018411
## reaction_consultation 1.049639 1 1.024519
## age_till_application_date 1.071537 1 1.035151
anova(logit_2, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
##
## Model: binomial, link: logit
##
## Response: is_working
##
## Terms added sequentially (first to last)
##
##
## Df Deviance Resid. Df Resid. Dev
## NULL 481 666.57
## macro_okved_code_group 8 46.450 473 620.12
## in_political_party 1 5.454 472 614.66
## in_association_or_sro 1 23.656 471 591.01
## capture 1 3.469 470 587.54
## barriers 1 5.746 469 581.79
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 1 7.290 468 574.50
## reaction_consultation 1 4.237 467 570.26
## age_till_application_date 1 3.368 466 566.90
## Pr(>Chi)
## NULL
## macro_okved_code_group 1.952e-07 ***
## in_political_party 0.019526 *
## in_association_or_sro 1.152e-06 ***
## capture 0.062542 .
## barriers 0.016528 *
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant 0.006932 **
## reaction_consultation 0.039552 *
## age_till_application_date 0.066474 .
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Decision Tree.
One model with Okved code and other variable is without it.
tree_vars <-c(
#"macro_okved_code_group",
"in_political_party",
"category_by_size_melse",
"in_association_or_sro",
"case_publications",
"criminal_prosecution",
"capture", "corruption", "barriers",
"reaction_not_passed_by_applicant",
"reaction_consultation",
"to_ombudsman",
"is_working")
tree_data <-dataset[tree_vars]
#tree_data$macro_okved_code_group <- factor(tree_data$macro_okved_code_group)
n <-nrow(tree_data)
n_train <-round(0.8*n)
set.seed(123)
train_indices <-sample(1:n, n_train)
train_dt <-tree_data[train_indices, ]
model <-rpart(formula = is_working ~.,
data = train_dt,
method ="class")
model$variable.importance
## in_association_or_sro category_by_size_melse
## 6.8948883 3.9000000
## reaction_not_passed_by_applicant in_political_party
## 3.0717329 2.9822457
## barriers case_publications
## 2.3712012 1.0987452
## to_ombudsman
## 0.1778401
rpart.plot(model)
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