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China-West strategic rivalry in the context of the arab spring

Introduction

china arab spring

The beginning of the XXI century is a period, characterized by the process of feasible and crucial changes in the global international order and the role of China. These changes have become one of the major topics for discussion among international relations scholars. To begin with, Director of China Program at George Washington University David Shambaugh in his book "China goes global: The partial power" gives a very interesting and unusual place for China on the modern international arena. Shaumbaugh David. China goes global: Partial power.// New York.: Oxford University Press. 2013. 320p. Namely, he says that it is at least premature to talk about China as a future “ruler of the world” and main global power. Author considers that currently China is somewhere on the way to become real world power in the future. However, this process can take a very long time, and as far as current situation is concerned, it is much more appropriate to label China as a partial power, rather than a global one. According to Shambaugh, there are a number of both political and economic reasons, supporting this assumption. First of all, author says that one of the main obstacles for China's transition to global power is that it lacks both diplomatic and military allies. Shambaugh claims that even though China is indeed among world leaders in certain sectors of economy, including trade and energy production, China, however, abstains from active participation in the international affairs. In other words, it possesses significant economic and military potential, but it lacks ability to influence the direction of the process. With regard to this, he refers to Joseph Nye understanding of modern power, saying that economic weight does not necessarily constitute political power if it is not used to influence the situation independently from other parties' opinion. Nye Joseph. The Future of power.// New York.: Public Affairs. 2011. 322p. In addition, Shambaugh claims that even though many scholars call Chinese soft power strategy very efficient, it failed to set global trends in art, music or education, what the US, for example, succeeded to do. Thus, he labels China as global actor, but not global power.

However, some of Shambaugh assumptions are rather arguable and should be regarded very critically. First of all, it is not completely true to say that Chinese attempts to make some trends global failed. We continuously observe increasing amount of students, studying Chinese language, culture and politics. Chinese mass media products are widely accessible via the Internet and have recently gained significant popularity in different parts of the world. Moreover, as far as China foreign policy strategy is concerned, it has been gradually changing since the beginning of the XXI century. China has made feasible transition from being a sole regional state to a serious political and economic global player, able to influence different processes in various regions of the world. As the global international system faces number of structural changes, it is important to understand that new types of power are rising. To add more, with regard to Shambaugh point on China's “non-alignment” behavior, we can refer to different understanding of what does the essence of “ally” in practice mean. Anyway, each strong actor pursues its own interests and its international alliances depend on a number of circumstances. Therefore, Shaumbaugh assumptions still have a lot of theoretical and practical limitations, and there are still many questions to specify.

To proceed with the issue, there are number of other international relations scholars, sharing some of Shambaugh skepticism on China's ability to act as a real global power in the nearest future. In his book, Shaumbaugh also quite often refers to the ideas of Chinese representative of realist school of thought - to Yan Xuetong, who considers that China is indeed one of the most important and powerful players, with a certain potential to become a new type of leading actor in the international system. Theory talk #51: Yan Xuetong. http://www.theory-talks.org/2012/11/theory-talk-51.html At the same time, he also adds that for now there is number of constraints, preventing China's power phenomenon to guide the country into the global leadership position. However, in his theory Yan Xuetong singles out three different types of “hegemony”: human authority, hegemony, and tyranny. According to his assumptions, human authority is a new type of hegemony and China is going to become the representative of this type, though this process is going to take reasonable amount of time. With regard to specific characteristics of human authority type of hegemony, it is important to highlight that it is a power that has reasonable number of friends and supporters on international arena, albeit with a burden of international responsibilities. In other words, if we try to sum up everything stated above, we can call human authority a “smart power”. Yan Xuetong explains that in this respect “human” is about having more friends and having a good political system that provides both stable domestic and international development. With regard to this, we can also highlight structural difference that separates the notions of hegemonic power and human authority. Yan Xuetong explains that typical hegemon behaves differently, depending on the situation and the status of the partner. With regard to its political and strategic enemies, hegemon relies on power politics, and prioritizes international norms only while dealing with diplomatic friends. Human authority behavior is drastically different. For human authority, international norms always prevail over personal relationships. In other words, human authority builds its foreign policy strategy in accordance with international standards and principles, independently from the status of the partner or group of partners. With regard to this idea, China's policy of non-interference in countries' domestic affairs and the promotion of soft power ideas perfectly fit the characteristics of human authority.

As far as transition constraints are concerned, according to Yan Xuentong, in order to become real human authority country has to operate in compliance with two main principles: international and domestic transparency, and actions credibility. With regard to the second principle, Yan Xuetong assumes that China needs to abandon its current non-alignment policy, as in case if the country does not give any promises, it cannot prove its international importance credibility. Talking about this point, if China will reconsider its non-alignment policy, it will take one-step closer to the title of human authority. The same is about the need to increase its both domestic and foreign policy transparency. Consequently, in case if the country manages to deal with all constrains, it gains a possibility to influence international norms and become a political role model for the rest of the world. At the same time, it will have to play a role of guard of these norms and punisher of those who breaks them. To sum up, as far as alliances issue is concerned, Yan Xuetong and David Shaumbaugh positions are in many ways similar. However, whether these constraints really influence the fact of being a global power is still under a big question.

To continue the topic of China's XXI century foreign policy strategy transition, we indeed should bear in mind the dependency of Chinese growing economy on imported fuel resources. With regard to this fact, major exporters of oil and gas for China are Middle East and North Africa countries. Consequently, Beijing strategic success in the region predetermines security of country's national interests. In post-2001 period, while the US administration was conducting its global war on terror, Chinese companies were trying to persuade and assure their potential Middle East and North Africa countries of the reliability of doing business with China. As we can see, Chinese attempts appeared to be successful, and Chinese companies won number of energy and infrastructure projects, thus creating strong basis for future cooperation. In other words, due to Washington's political lapses, China used the right moment to strengthen its position in the region. It is important to say that China succeeded in doing this, as its foreign policy proved to be much more flexible in terms of strategic and economic cooperation, corresponding with MENA leaders' demands and interests. To begin with, China follows the policy of non-interference in countries domestic affairs. Moreover, in comparison with the US, Chinese approach is much more open for compromise of interests, and what is also important, it is easier to buy Chinese military equipment due to comparative complexity of official bureaucratic procedures in the US.

The success of China's foreign policy strategy in MENA region was also highlighted in the academia, and for example, authors of the book “China, the European Union. Triangular Relationship” pay a lot of attention to the history of China-MENA states relations.Wouters Jan, Defraigne Jean-Christophe, Burnay Matthieu. China, the European Union and the Developing World. A triangular relationship. // Cheltenham.: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. 2015. 529p. https://books.google.ru/books?id=y07fBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA360&lpg=PA360&dq=China+Railway+Construction+Corporation+Libya&source=bl&ots=y-aeiPB3Cs&sig=_FYUgdOcoUgCUfAj6jVUNSeiKok&hl=ru&sa=X&ved=0CCwQ6AEwAjgKahUKEwjI2_TV2fHIAhVCv3IKHfEEBAk#v=onepage&q=China%20Railway%20Construction%20Corporation%20Libya&f=false At the same time, the book focuses on the clash of economic and strategic interests between China and the West in the region. Case studies on Iran and Libya provide clear picture of power competition in the region and give several points of view on the same issues from different sides of the “political chess board”.

The US have been playing leading role in MENA region for quite a long period of modern history. Moreover, the White House was able to cooperate and find mutually beneficial decisions together with political leadership of these states. However, suddenly everything changed, and the US administration started to accuse leadership of several states of human rights abuse and nondemocratic rule, and proclaimed the fight against the dictatorship rule in these countries. Later on, the combination of internal and external factors resulted in the Arab Spring events. As far as political dimension is concerned, nothing happens for no reason, and what is more important, the desire to get material incentives and strengthen strategic influence usually plays major role in such radical shift. Thus, the following question arises: what was the reason for the US to become dissatisfied with nondemocratic regimes in MENA region that had been existing there for years. In other words, why have the Western world suddenly decided to make such a radical shift in its policy towards MENA region. Taking into account intensively growing political and economic influence of China, and world political leaders concerns over this process, it would be hard to deny the fact that there is indeed if not evident, but latent competition between China and the West, and especially with the US. Of course, the point is not about direct military confrontation or severe diplomatic game, but about attempts to weaken each other strategic influence in different regions of the world. As far as the XXI century international environment is concerned, natural resources and raw materials had in fact become major elements to provide prosperous development of the country and satisfy population basic needs. Therefore, the fight for access to water resources or natural fuel resources is a contemporary world universal trend, shaping international environment. With regard to this fact, the US and China as hugest world economies and strong military powers inevitably have to compete with each other on the global arena in order to first of all support its international authority and provide conditions to feed their economies.

The subject under research is extremely relevant, as 2010 Arab Spring events had enormous influence on the political balance in the MENA region, and even though 5 years have already passed, we continue observing consequences of the unrest. Moreover, with regard to the fact that MENA region is the major world fuel resources supplier, the Arab Spring upheaval influenced world energy market significantly. World biggest powers are bound to compete for access to the natural resources deposits and strategic influence in MENA region to fulfill their national interests. In fact, its fuel resources richness turned MENA region into an attractive “piece of pie” for leading external actors. Talking about Chinese involvement in the process, it is highly relevant to mention that Chinese economy is extremely dependent on fuel resources imports from Middle East, and any instability in this area may cause temporary interruption of the resources transportation, what is unacceptable for growing Chinese economy. Even though currently there are many evidences of Chinese economic growth slowing down, causing decrease in the energy demand, still huge population and enormous manufacturing capabilities make Beijing annually import more and more fuel resources. In addition, post- Arab Spring period can be called as transitional, characterized by the redistribution of powers and areas of influence. Therefore, comprehensive understanding of both triggers and stimulus of the Arab Spring events can help making objective forecast on future state of affairs in the region. With regard to analysis of Chinas role in the Arab Spring process, it potentially may help to highlight underlying causes of the upheaval and also get better understanding of China's modern place on the international arena.

Research question: Was there China-West strategic rivalry factor in shaping the Arab Spring events? If yes, how to define it and what are the consequences.

Research goal: To prove that strategic strengthening of China in MENA region undesirable for the West and its partners, was one of the underlying factors triggering the Arab Spring.

Research tasks:

• To show the scale of China's economic involvement in MENA region;

• To define areas of China-MENA economic cooperation that could potentially have triggered the upheaval because of mismatch with Western interests;

• To point out the importance of natural gas pipeline war as one of the main triggers of the Arab Spring events;

• To demonstrate growing global political and strategic importance of China based on its role in the Arab Spring events.

Chronological framework of the Master paper will be limited to the 2010-2015 period. However, some statistical and factual data will also be traced back to 2008, regarding the fact that this year was a starting point of some global and regional processes that had a direct influence on later events in MENA region. First of all, 2008 world economic crisis has affected to bigger or lesser extent every country in the world, and symbolized new era in global economic development. Moreover, some MENA regional economic shifts happened right in 2008, therefore this year should be taken into account to conduct comprehensive and objective research.

Geographically, Middle East and North Africa region is quite an extensive area, consisting of quite a large amount of countries. It is impossible to cover all states within one Master paper; therefore current research will focus on North African Arab countries that were touched by the Arab Spring events. In addition, MENA biggest natural gas and LNG exporters will also be included in the research.

Hypothesis: China's active economic penetration in MENA region damaged strategic interests of the West, thus creating the platform for political distraction in the region to make MENA political leaders change their foreign partners' priorities. Therefore, China's economic competition with Western players for the access to fuel resources and sales market has served as one of the reasons of the Arab Spring events.

With regard to present Master paper, neoliberalism and neorealism school of thoughts are chosen as major theoretical approaches. Despite the fact that these two schools of thought suggest different points of view on international relations processes, some aspects of the research require reference to neoliberalism ideas, though major part of the work will be built with regard to neorealism ideas. In addition, it is important to mention that these two approaches are quite plastic and rather open for new ideas. Therefore, within the frameworks of this work, they do not contradict, but complement each other.

To begin with, neoliberalism representatives claim that states develop progressively and actors on international arena tend to operate in accordance with rules of peaceful economic development. Jackson, Robert, Sшrensen, Georg. Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. pp. 100-131. At the same time, states build their foreign policy strategy in accordance with their primary national interests. With regard to these points, the fact of successful China - MENA countries economic cooperation is a good proof of certain ideas of neoliberalism approach. Moreover, neoliberalists assert the importance of the institutions in sustaining cooperation and resolving disputes. Indeed, we have some successfully operating international organizations in MENA region, contributing to peaceful political and healthy economic environment in the region.

However, neoliberalism approach cannot comprehensively explain aggressive political environment in this part of the world. Therefore, neorealism approach should also be applied to the research. Neorealists argue that conflicting environment dominates on international arena, but there is a possibility that states can be open to the future cooperation. According to neorealists, all states do not trust each other and are in the process of increasing military capabilities, through alliances and economic expansion. Mingst Karen. Essentials of International Relations. WW Norton and Co. p.67-71 With regard to neorealism approach, the Arab Spring is a feasible example of aggressive behavior of international relation actors. Moreover, rather tensed competition of external interested parties over the MENA region natural resources is also an example of conflicting environment on the international arena.

The availability of both primary and secondary sources significantly contributes to the comprehensiveness of the Master paper. However, data, extracted from primary sources is much more valuable. With regard to the topic of my Master paper, the most relevant primary sources are various official documents, policy briefs and official interviews, published by government institutions. For example, Internet access allows analyzing official documents and data, published by PRC's Ministry of Foreign AffairsMinistry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/default.htm and PRC's Ministry of Commerce Ministry of Commerce People's Republic of China. http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/. This data can be used to estimate current state of affairs in China-MENA cooperation, to highlight key strategic interests of official Beijing in the region. At the same time, free access to the information, placed on websites of UN and UN Security Council shows world community position, concerning Middle East issues and PRC involvement in this region processes.UN Security Council. http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/

As far as some MENA countries are important fuel resources suppliers for China, and, in addition, world oil prices are highly dependent on political and economic situation in this part of the world, this issue should also be marked as primary one. In this respect, statistics and reports, prepared by International Energy Agency International Energy Agency. http://www.iea.org/, US Energy Information AdministrationUS Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.gov/ or World Statistics World Statistishttp://world-statistics.org/ allow trustworthy estimation of PRC energy dependency on one or another MENA country. Moreover, data archives and various interactive tools allow tracing changes in import-export fuel resources balances and provides brief explanation of past and current world energy supply-demand environment. Some Internet tools also help calculate transportation costs and delivery distances, what is also important with regard to the understanding of fuel resources import dependent country in the Region. Searates.com. https://www.searates.com/

Analysis of Chinese, Western and Russian Mass Media is also an essential part of the research process, as there we can find different opinions and analysis of global and regional political and economic events. Variety of data contributes a lot to the objectivity of future conclusions. As far as Chinese Mass Media are concerned, it is important to become familiar with publications on the same issue from both pro-political and relatively alternative publications in order to draw a full picture of the prevalent media coverage. The following various Chinese blogs and forums give a picture of ordinary citizens' reaction on MENA region issues and official Beijing foreign policy strategy. For instance, in this research various data from such Chinese Mass Media as "ИЛГсИХ±Ё"ИЛГсИХ±Ё.(The People's Daily). http://www.world.people.com.cn/(The People's Daily), "ђV»ЄЙз"ђV»ЄЙз (The Xinhua News Agency). http://www.nx.xinhuanet.com (The Xinhua News Agency), "ЦР№ъРВОЕНш"ЦР№ъРВОЕНш(China News). www.chinanews.com(China News) will be used. In order to make a comparison between China's and Western Mass Media information, the following editions can be used: American newspaper "The New York Times" The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/, Reuters news agency Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/, Qatar's news channel "AlJazeera” AlJazeera. http://www.aljazeera.com/, etc.

Of course, there are also plenty of articles and academic papers devoted to the issues of China's economic and political role on the international arena. For example number of high academic level articles can be found on the website “Globalresearch”Global research. http://www.globalresearch.ca/, publishing collections of papers on various topics. Also, earlier in the current Master paper we already mentioned works by David Shaumbaugh and Yan Xuetong. Theoretical ideas of, for example, Joseph Nye in his book “The future of power” also make significant contribution to the content and comprehensiveness of the work.

To conduct analysis of all above described primary and secondary sources, we should rely on a certain number of methods of study. With regard to present Master paper, the research will be based on historical analysis, chronological analysis and case study. Moreover, due to the fact that quite a significant part of present work is closely connected with various economic elements, the use of qualitative approach is also highly relevant for the Master paper. To begin with, as far as historical analysis is concerned, the understanding of international relations historical background in a certain region of the world is a must knowledge to objectively research current state of affairs. At the same time, implementation of chronological analysis may help to follow the sequence of events and construct the scheme of causes and consequences. In order to prove or disprove assumptions, methods of case studies can become a useful tool of research. With regard to qualitative approach, various calculations and analysis of statistical data add more value to the research process and final conclusions. Application of all above mentioned methods of study will make the final version of the work comprehensive and all-inclusive.

Chapter 1. China and the Arab Spring events. Natural gas factor

1.1 China and natural gas market in MENA region

The world demand for energy is continuing to expand due to number of objective factors, including the population growth and gradual increase in industrial capacities in different regions of the world. In accordance with the calculations, in 2014 the world faced 0.9% growth of primary energy consumption. Energy charting tool. http://tools.bp.com/energy-charting-tool.aspx#/st/primary_energy/ Despite the fact that we observe economic fluctuation in different parts of the world, and even Asian economic development locomotive - China faces economic challenges, the need to satisfy country's energy demands remains very feasible. PRC government established 6,5% economic growth ceiling for the next five years. Of course, this number is much lower than 9-10% growth in 2009-2010. However, bearing in mind global economic challenges and financial difficulties faced by number of countries, China still managed to perform quite sustainable economic growth. Another important thing about Chinese economy is that services sector in the country has conquered leading positions of growth. For example, within the period of January-September 2015, industrial sector in China performed 1,2% growth, and services sector jumped for 11,6%.Fedotovsky Nikolai. Without excess. //Expert. February 2016. №5. p.32-33 In other words, such shift symbolized re-orientation of Chinese market, and, what is also important, even triggered the wave of competitiveness among major fuel resources exporters to China. Nevertheless, this shift does not mean that China is going to stop importing huge amount of fuel resources in the nearest future. Much more important thing for Chinese business representatives is to cut the costs, improve the delivery system and find the most sustainable and trustworthy suppliers. Consequently, in order to support current "shaky" condition of the growth rate declining economy, Beijing needs to provide sustainable flow of high-quality and cheap fuel resources. Because, otherwise, Chinese economy can become even more imbalanced and cause serious barriers on the way of building prosperous society in PRC.

Taking into consideration that oil remains the most widely used fuel resource to generate energy, finding alternative source of energy in the shortest time span is barely achievable goal. However, there is a global tendency to cleaner and cheaper energy production that makes humanity look for new ways of energy generation. With regard to this contemporary trend, last several years showed that there is a feasible growing demand for natural gas consumption in different regions of the world, and numbers have been steadily increasing since mid 2000s. Finally, in 2014, global production of natural gas hit a record high of 3 524 Billion cubic metres (Bcm). IEA energy atlas. http://energyatlas.iea.org/?subject=-1165808390 Even with regard to Asian region, where coal used to occupy the biggest share of energy production sector, the usage of natural gas recently has started to gain popularity. Referring to numbers of gas natural deposits and scales of its production in the world, natural gas indeed has a potential to at least partial replacement of oil and coal to produce energy. To add more, there are disastrous environmental consequences of burning coal, and, natural gas has proven to be a reliable and environment-friendly source to generate energy.

Even People's Republic of China, being highly dependent on fuel resources imports, and especially on oil, gradually tries to switch to the use of natural gas. There are different forecasts concerning gas consumption fluctuations in China. Some analytics and officials are very careful in giving numbers, saying that currently China's gas consumption capacity is dramatically overestimated. However, positive expectations are “winning the battle”. For example, the former energy official Hu Weiping, suggested that China's annual gas imports may reach 60 million metric tons by 2020. China's gas import slowdown threatens LNG producers. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/06/china-gas-import-slowdown-threatens-lng-producers-150602104833809.html By any means, taking into account that global oil deposits are limited, it is rather obvious that additional sources are needed to provide energy security in the country. For Beijing administration, the provision of uninterrupted flow of imported gas turned out to be a strategically important task.

However, the problem of sustainability of oil and gas amount extraction is far from being the only issue of energy security of the state. The delivery of the commodity from one continent to another is also accompanied by number of challenges. With regard to fuel resources transportation issue, there are two main ways to deliver natural gas to the customer: by ship or by pipeline. Pipeline delivery is the most widely used way, but recently Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping has also become quite popular and proved being cost-effective. LNG shipping is the best way to get this fuel commodity for countries of Asia-Pacific region, dealing with the lack of natural gas deposits.

Talking about global energy trends, it is important to analyze the share of fuel resources market, occupied by LNG. LNG gradually takes bigger and bigger place on global energy market. Official data shows that China consumes about 6% of the global LNG trade and takes third position (after South Korea and Japan) in a line of the biggest LNG importers. For the last several years, China has significantly expanded its LNG import capacity from 6 MTPA in 2008 to 32 MTPA in 2013. Moreover, according to the approximate estimations, PRC will overcome the number of 80 MTPA by 2018. Chinese government, stimulated by the need to diversify energy sources, is also extremely interested in signing beneficial natural gas contracts.

MENA region has all capacities to transform into world major gas hub. However, geopolitics in the region is extremely complicated, and too many external parties are interested in the process. First of all, there are number of MENA states, attempting to become major exporters of LNG, such as Qatar and Iran. Russian Federation is also an important player in the region, which however, in the context of natural gas export is indeed a country-competitor for MENA states. In addition, the biggest MENA fuel resources customers - European Union and China are also closely follow MENA processes and influence a lot on the situation there. Engdahl William. Syria, Turkey, Israel and a great Middle East Energy War. http://www.voltairenet.org/article176200.html Not to forget about the US trying to maintain their global economic and political influence. To sum up, even with regard to number of interested parties in gas market distribution in MENA region, this region can be easily labeled as a global energy priority field.

As far as numbers are concerned, China's major LNG exporter is Qatar (34%), and in 2008 Qatar Gas and Petrochina signed an LNG long-term 25-years sales and purchase agreement.ЦР№ъКЇУНУлїЁЛю¶ыЗ©¶©ѕЮ¶оТє»ЇМмИ»ЖшР­ТйЈ¬(China and Qatar signed LNG agreement). http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001018596 In accordance with the conditions of the agreement, China will annually purchase 3 million tons of LNG. It was also calculated that approximate value of the agreement might reach the number of $60 billion. Beijing has also signed beneficial gas deals with Oman, Egypt and Algeria. Moreover, apart from MENA countries, China also imports LNG from Australia (24%), Indonesia (16%) and Malaysia (13%). Liquified Natual Gas Imports. http://www.eia.gov/COUNTRIES/cab.cfm?fips=CH Nevertheless, MENA LNG market indeed has feasible potential of becoming major supplier for China, and its scale is intensively growing. Taking into account the fact that LNG is a perfect alternative source of energy generation, which can be used along with oil and coal, its importance for China's resources import dependent economy becomes evident. Signing long-term LNG contracts and investing in infrastructure projects promote resources imports diversification and provide future energy security. Therefore, gaining accessibility to advantageous MENA LNG market capacity is also important element of PRC's policy in the region.

To sum up, natural gas is one of the major exporting commodities of MENA states. With regard to energy generation, the use of natural gas may become at least partial substitution for the use of oil. Within the environment of limited deposits of natural fuel resources, such possibility is a chance to provide energy security of the state. Due to huge size of Chinese economy, China pretends to become world largest importer of natural gas in the future. Therefore, China is going to follow natural gas market trends in MENA region and the clash of interests of world major gas importers already now inevitably takes place in this part of the globe.

1.2 “Pipeline war" and role of China

In the world of the XXI century, the access to natural fuel resources plays crucial role for countries, willing to satisfy their economic needs along with keeping their strategic influence on the same level. In fact, the competition for resources has become one of the key triggers of states competition on the international arena. MENA region as a fuel resources treasure house has also turned into a desired jackpot for competing world powers and leading economies.

For the last several years, some MENA states proposed infrastructure projects, which appeared to be violating each other economic goals. To begin with, back to 2009, Qatar was looking for possibilities to build a pipeline from Qatar to Turkey to expand its export of LNG to European market. This proposal for the first time was expressed in 2009 by Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani during his official visit to western Turkish resort town of Bodrum.Qatar seeks gas pipeline to Turkey. http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/qatar-seeks-gas-pipeline-to-turkey Initially both sides agreed upon two probable projects of the pipeline. These two plans were projected in the following way. Plan A project: Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey pipeline; Plan B project: Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Kuwait-Iraq-Turkey. Carlisle Tamsin. Qatar seeks gas pipeline to Turkey. http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/qatar-seeks-gas-pipeline-to-turkey (Pic.1) With regard to future prospective, Turkey and Qatar also suggested that new pipeline would probably be connected with Pan-Arab pipeline, carrying Egyptian gas through Jordan to Syria.

Grayscale contour map. https://yandex.ru/images/search?p=8&text=%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%88%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BA%20%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B0&noreask=1&lr=54

Pic. 1. Qatar pipeline projects: plan A and plan B

Soon after the meeting, Qatar started to conduct negotiations with potential participants of the projects. Already on this stage, Qatar faced serious obstacle, namely unwillingness of Syria to join the project. Instead, Syrian administration decided to set its own rules of the game and performed as an initiator of the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline project. In 2011, Bashar al-Assad shared his idea with Iran and Iraq officials, and both states enthusiastically agreed to work on the elaboration of the project, and signed a memorandum on this decision. Two years later, in July 2013 leaders of Syria, Iraq and Iran signed a preliminary agreements on the pipeline. Robinson Jerry. Why Syria? An Examination of the Iran-Iraq-Syria Pipeline. http://ftmdaily.com/what-jerry-thinks/whysyria/ According to probable estimations, the cost of the completed project of 5600km pipeline would reach $10 billion, and it was supposed to be completed in 3 years.ТБАКЈ¬ТБА­їЛєНРрАыСЗЗ©КрМмИ»Жш№ЬґшР­ТйЎЈЈЁIran, Iraq and Syria signed gas dealЈ©http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-07/26/c_121719337.htm The route of the pipeline was projected in the following way: starting from the Iranian Port Assalouyeh, located near the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, then through Iraqi territory to Syria, proceeding through Lebanon and then under sea to European market. As we can see, this project leaves behind all potential participants of Turkey-Qatar pipeline plan. In case of successful implementation of this project, it would have caused serious damage to the economic interests of Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the region willing to increase their export capacities to the European market. (Pic. 2) Besides economic factors, there is also a deep politico-religious pattern in this issue, namely the contradictions between Sunni and Shia Muslims embodied in the Saudi-Iranian confrontation. With regard to this issue, Syria-Iraq-Iran project also got the name “Islamic pipeline” as in fact the gas will be transferred from Shiite Iran via Shiite majority Iraq to Shia-friendly Alawite regime in Syria. Whereas Alawite secular Syria and Sunni Salafite Qatar cooperation is rather a controversial question.

What is more problematic about two pipeline projects competition is that bigger external players are also actively involved in the process. To begin with, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are key allies of the US in the region. Whereas, Syria and Iran are actively supported by China and Russia. With regard to this issue, it is worth mentioning that the world's largest known natural gas deposit is located in the middle of Persian Gulf. Deposit partly belongs to Iran, and partly to Qatar. The Iranian part is called North Pars.North Pars Gas Field. http://www.pogc.ir/NorthParsGasField/tabid/155/Default.aspx In 2006, China's CNOOC signed a deal with Iran to develop North Pars and build LNG infrastructure to bring gas to China. Expected capacity of this field is production of 20 Mtpa of LNG. What is also worth mentioning, in August 2011 Syria discovered a new gas field in the Central governorate of Homs, located very close to the Russian-leased naval port of Tarsus, what means that Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline gas exports to EU would probably go through the port of Tarsus. Engdahl William. Syria, Turkey, Israel and a great Middle East Energy War. http://www.voltairenet.org/article176200.html

 Grayscale contour map. https://yandex.ru/images/search?p=8&text=%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%88%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BA%20%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B0&noreask=1&lr=54

Pic. 2. Two projects of the pipeline (“Pipeline war”)

Moreover, Beijing interest is much bigger than it may seem at first sight. Theoretically, “Islamic pipeline” can be extended, and link Iran and China through Pakistan. Nazemroaya Mahdi. Iran's Gas Pipelines. http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2013/04/19/irans-gas-pipelines/ (Pic. 3) Thus, China will also benefit a lot both from economic and political aspects in case of successful accomplishment of the pipeline. Talking about strategic incentives, all parts of the pipeline should go through territories of states-allies of China, as Beijing has solid relations with Syria under Asad regime, as well as modern Iran and Iraq administrations. To add more, this pipeline can further be continued to Pakistan, what is also a huge incentive for China and its allies. To begin with, Iran, Russia and China have already offered Pakistan financial assistance in building a pipeline. The length of the pipeline on Pakistan territory is expected to be 700 kilometers. According to approximate estimations, the construction will cost about $2 billion, and it will be completed in 2 years. 85% of all expenses will be covered with the help of the Chinese loan, and only 15% of the price is Pakistan officials' responsibility.НвГЅіЖЦР№ъЅ«Н¶ЧКЅЁТБАКµЅ°Н»щЛ№М№МмИ»Жш№ЬµАЎЈ(Foreign Mass Media write that China will invest in Iran-Pakistan pipeline project.) http://www.thjunshi.com/ckxx/2015/4/9/44440_2.shtml Chinese Petroleum Pipeline Bureau keeps consulting Pakistan officials on different procedure issues.ЦР№ъ»тЅ«ФЪ°Н»щЛ№М№ЅЁФмјЫЅь20ТЪГАФЄµДМмИ»Жш№ЬµАЎЈ(China gives money to build $2 billion pipeline in Pakistan). http://finance.eastmoney.com/news/1351,20150409495160562.html

 Grayscale contour map. https://yandex.ru/images/search?p=8&text=%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%88%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BA%20%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B0&noreask=1&lr=54

Pic.3. China-Iran infrastructure connection.

To make this huge pipeline project become real - one of the major steps is to connect Iranian and Pakistan parts of the pipeline. Iran-Pakistan pipeline got the name “peace pipeline” (єНЖЅ№ЬµА).ЦР№ъОЄ°Н»щЛ№М№РЮМмИ»Жш№ЬПЯ: НЁНщТБАКФмјЫ°ЩТЪЎЈ(China invests in Pakistan gas pipeline project). http://news.qq.com/a/20150409/020243.htm Iranian side claimed that they have already finished constructing their part of the pipeline of total length of 900 kilometers. For quite a long period of time Pakistan could not start constructing its part of the pipeline, as it was under the White House pressure, saying that it was not allowed to conduct any strategic deal with sanctioned Iran. However, after the lifting off Iran sanctions, there will be no constraints to launch the building process. It is expected that 2015 Iran deal would speed up this process. In fact, that is also why it was strategically important for China to speed up the negotiations process with Iran.

Chinese side plans to maximize incentives from cooperating with Pakistan. In 2013, state-owned China Overseas Port Holding Limited acquired Pakistan deep-water port Gwadar. Chinese side keeps providing 80% of all cost to construct LNG terminal there and additional 700 kilometers long pipeline to connect Gwadar with the main pipeline network in Pakistan.

Indeed, Beijing has huge plans towards Pakistan, and Gwadar plays one of the key roles in the plan. Gwadar is supposed to take central place in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC - ѕ­јГЧЯАИ), connecting Pakistan seaside with Kashgar in Chinas' Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. With regard to this plan, in order to improve the logistics, China wants to link Gwadar port to the western Chinese city of Kashgar by constructing highway and railroad infrastructure of total length about 3,000 kilometers. In April 2015, Chinese President XI Jinping visited Pakistan and signed $46 billion deal to finance CPEC project, covering all the needs for the required infrastructure and modernization of Gwadar port facilities. Obviously, this connection to sea would significantly reduce shipping distance and transportation expenses from China to MENA and European markets.China-funded LNG project to turn into Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline: petroleum minister. http://tribune.com.pk/story/922469/china-funded-lng-project-to-turn-into-iran-pakistan-gas-pipeline-petroleum-minister/ Construction process started in October 2015, and it is expected to take about 3 years to complete the project. Port location is incredibly beneficial for Chinese fuel resources supply form the Middle East region. Escobar Pepe. Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Qatar: Pipelineistan at work. https://www.rt.com/op-edge/iran-pakistan-syria-pipeline-843/ Moreover, it has all prospectives to become fuel resources hub and petrochemical center. In case if this pipeline will finally become real, the geostrategic primacy of the US in the Middle East energy sector would be seriously questioned.

For now, Chinas' fuel resources supply from Middle East and North Africa countries is rather vulnerable. The problem is that due to strong naval military and economic presence in the region, the US is able to control the sea transportation routes of oil, coming from Middle East to China. The maritime route to deliver fuel resources from MENA region to China is rather long, and cargos have to go through the Strait of Hormuz, cross the Indian Ocean, Malacca Strait and Pacific Ocean, than finally enter South China Sea and arrive to Shanghai. The route is about 11000 km long and it takes at least 3 weeks for cargoes to reach their point of destination.Searates.com. https://www.searates.com/reference/portdistance?B=11950&E=706& At the same time, land-based transportation network used to be excessively week to satisfy China`s demands. Therefore, in case of successful completion of the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline and its further connection with Pakistan network, China will be able to diversify and secure its supplies on both ground and marine transportation lines. Moreover, the distance between Pakistan Gwadar port and Chinese Kashgar is about 2000 kilometers. Ground route length from Kashgar to Shanghai is about 5000 kilometers.Check-distance.com. http://check-distance.com/search?from=Kashgar%2C+Xinjiang%2C+China&to=Shangai%2C+Shanghai%2C+ChinaAs we can see, even the most approximate calculation shows that new transportation route may be shorter for about 4000 kilometers.

To sum up, China has feasible economic and geostrategic interest in successful completion of “Islamic pipeline” project. First of all, connection of Iran and Pakistan pipeline networks with further construction of required infrastructure to deliver goods to China territory would significantly secure the transportation of fuel resources to China. Bearing in mind that shipping through straits could probably be blocked by the controlling states, and piracy is also a huge issue in MENA region, one more additional route of the delivery is a huge step forward energy security to China.±ЈХПОґАґДЬФґ°ІИ«ЎЈЦР№ъСєЧў°Н»щЛ№М№ИЛїЪІ»Чг9НтµДРЎУжґеЎЈGuaranteeing future energy securityhttp://bbs.0513.org/thread-2888383-1-1.htmlЈ© What is also important, in case if Gwadar port would finally become not only huge LNG terminal but also trans-shipment point for Chinese goods, it would ease the delivery process to the world market, enlarging financial incentives for Chinese producers. All these economic incentives would undeniably contribute to the Chinese authority on the global political arena. Moreover, Beijing would multiply its connections with MENA partners, including Syria and Iran, causing the weakening of the US allies in the region. In fact, this pipeline game is also a matter of prestige and material status for the biggest economies of the world. Consequently, we assume that such economic competition has served as one of the reasons of the Arab Spring events, as during the political quakes period it is rather complicated to cooperate on the implementation of the initiatives, and this is a good chance for the US to interrupt undesirable processes in MENA region.

Chapter 2. China and the Arab Spring. Market space and investment opportunities

2.1 China's economic strength in MENA and Egyptian Arab Spring controversy

China's foreign policy XXI pivot brought significant economic incentives to Beijing and allowed China to increase its world political influence. With regard to Middle East and North Africa region, the US were not ready to accept the fact that MENA states started to cooperate actively with Asian economic leaders, especially with China, resulting in the fact that within rather a shot time span Beijing managed to increase significantly its strategic influence in the region. Independently from the chosen time span in recent couple of decades, China's political strengthening creates complications to the US political and economic influence and national interests, followed by probable economic losses and strategic weakening for the White House. In other words, unfortunately, MENA region unwillingly has become a hidden “battle field” for two main global political and economic competitors: China and the US. In fact, the ability of one side to come out of the situation with less economic damage would demonstrate its real power and ability to influence the situation. Moreover, it is also possible to assume that the one who has an unlimited access to natural resources cradle, namely MENA region, indeed has all chances to set the rules of the game.

Undeniably, economic incentives make competitors intensify their fight for participation in attractive infrastructure and investment projects. To begin with, prior to the Arab Spring events, in 2008 Muammar Qaddafi government in Libya decided to develop country's railway network and make freight and passenger transportation from south to north of the country and along the coastline more cost-effective and quick.ЦР№ъМъЅЁЦР±кАы±ИСЗ26ТЪГАФЄМъВ·¶©µҐЎЈЈЁCRCC wins $2.6 billion Railway contract in Libya. http://www.crcc.cn/g605/s1488/t19995.aspx Libyan government involved two huge companies for realization of the project, one form Russia and one form China, respectively. Russian Railways (RZhD) shared 1/3 of the project, with the task to build 554-kilometer line from Sirte to Benghazi. At the same time, China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) signed a deal to construct three lines: 800-kilometer track from Sebha to Misurata, 352-kilometer track from al Khums and Sirte, and also 172-kilometer track from Tripoli to Tunisian border. Calculation showed that total value of all abovementioned projects may have reached $12 billion. It was estimated that in case of active working process, each project would have been completed within 3 or 4 years. It is important to mention that due to active participation of Chinese company in accomplishment of huge infrastructure projects in Libya, China had all prospects to strengthen its strategic influence not only in the country, but in the whole region.