China-West strategic rivalry in the context of the arab spring
China and the Arab Spring events. Natural gas market in MENA region. Market space and investment opportunities China’s economic strength in MENA and Egyptian Arab Spring controversy. North Africa, Union for the Mediterranean and China market space.
Рубрика | Международные отношения и мировая экономика |
Вид | курсовая работа |
Язык | английский |
Дата добавления | 01.09.2016 |
Размер файла | 365,4 K |
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However, when in 2011 civil war erupted in Libya, undeniably, all these projects went off track and caused huge economic losses for both RZhD and CRCC. For example, CRCC was basically forced to freeze about $3.55 billion in these projects. After building China's railways, giant CRCC flexes muscles abroad. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/china-railways-idUSL6N0TM31S20141209 In fact it was only a small part of all losses that Chinese side had to deal with because of the political destabilization in Libya. Talking about financial damage, because of the unrests in Libya, according to foreign researches calculations, Chinese building corporations faced losses about $16.6 billion. With added amounts of lost investments, total sum will increase up to $20 billion. Kashnin V. Come out of shadows. China in the search of new foreign policy// Russia in Global Policy. 2012.№2. 112p. As we can see, political shift triggered serious financial inconveniences for all involved parties. However, for China as one of the most active investors, losses appeared to be especially significant.
However, as soon as the most active part of hostilities ended in Libya, China started to make attempts to restore economic relations. Of course, it was not possible to renew all suspended projects. For example, coming back to railway infrastructure topic, despite all faced difficulties, in June 2013, new Libyan government attempted to restore the realization of the projects, and initiated talks with both RZhD and CRCC representatives. However, Libyan transport minister Abdel-Qader Ahmed warned both sides that there would be no financial compensation for the delay of the project.Libya meets Chinese, Russian firms to restart $12 bn project. http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/libya-meets-chinese-russian-firms-restart-12bn-pro/Moreover, he added that the work should be restarted under the original financial terms of the contract, even despite the fact that the cost of all construction material increased drastically since the initial project agreement.ЦРНБУлАыМъВ·№ЬАн»ъ№№З©КрПоДї»ЦёґјНТЄЎЈ(Chinese meet Libyan railway administration to restart the project)http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/k/201306/20130600180412.shtml Obviously, newly announced conditions were not approved by both Chinese and Russian companies. As for now, both projects are still frozen. Nevertheless, the fact that even newly elected government in Libya attempted to normalize relations with China means that Chinese presence is still welcome.
Railway infrastructure is far not the only non-oil/gas sector, where China managed to increase its influence. For example, Chinese companies also occupy considerable part of the telecommunication market in MENA region. Huawei being one of the hugest telecommunication equipment and services producers in the world started its penetration to North Africa market quite a long time ago. It is quite symbolic that its headquarters is located in Cairo, Egypt, and it was established 13 years ago. As for now, Huawei North Africa has more than 2000 workers, and what is more significant is that 70% of them are local employees.China's Huawei holds 2013 North Africa Strategic Cooperation Forum in Ethiopia. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/821572.shtml Even after the Arab Spring rebellion, Huawei managed not only to preserve its presence in the region, but also to foster the cooperation. Later on, in November 2012 Huawei opened a network cooperation center in Cairo, responsible for management of the operation of telecommunication networks and provision of wide range of services to operators in the region. Huawei, hits the jackpot in Africa. http://www.theafricareport.com/North-Africa/huawei-hits-the-jackpot-in-africa.html Moreover, in 2013 in cooperation with Microsoft, Huawei promoted a new brand - Huawei4Africa, which also gained popularity among customers. In addition, for now, Huawei and Zhong Cing Telecommunication Equipment Company Limited (ZTE) provide services in at least six countries in the region: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Tunisia and UAE.
In 2008 Chinese home electronics manufacturer Hisense established its production base in Egypt. It was company's fifth factory, located outside China. Hisense. Conpany profile. http://global.hisense.com/about/copr/mile/2008/ According to the conditions of the agreement, total investment may reach $60 million. Once again, Egypt became primary destination for Chinese manufacturers to locate their production center. One more example is again China's Hisense LCD TVs, which occupies considerable share in Egypt hi-tech market, and produces about 100,000 LCD TVs annually. Again, despite all the instability in the region, caused by the Arab Spring, Hisense managed to overcome difficulties and continue the realization of earlier assigned plans. It would be enough to say that even in the winter 2010 Hisense jointly with Egyptian Helwan company opened air conditioning factory in Helwan, Egypt.
Both sides also managed to enhance cooperation in banking sphere. During the Annual Thought Leadership Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Bankers Conference 2010 Chinese side has signed RMB Cross Border Trade Settlement Account Agreements with tree banks, locates in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Jordan, respectively. Standard Chartered signs RMB Cross Border Trade Settlement Account Agreements. https://www.sc.com/ae/media/press/en/2010/201009271.pdf The main point of this agreement is to allow member-banks open RMB accounts in China, thus enhancing bilateral capital flow. With regard to future prospective, such agreements potentially may lessen the US dollar predominance in the capital flow processes in the region. Undeniably, such trend is not in the US interests.
Worth mentioning that back to 2009, one of the biggest Chinese banks - China Development Bank (CDB) had chosen Egypt capital - Cairo as a center for banking sector promotion in MENA region, and established there its representative office. ЦР№ъЅрИЪТµ±±·ЗµДКЧјТ·ЦЦ§»ъ№№--№ъјТїЄ·ўТшРРїЄВЮґъ±нґ¦№ТЕЖіЙБўЎЈ (The center of the Chinese finances in the North Africa. China Development Bank set up its representative office in Cairo). http://www.cdb.com.cn/web/newsinfo.asp?newsid=3210 Such decision once again demonstrated importance of Egypt in the regions. Few years later, already after the Mubarak-era in Egypt, in April 2011, CDB signed memorandum of understanding with two Egyptians huge companies: Commercial International Bank and CI Capital Holding.China offers 9$ million aid to Egypt. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-04/21/content_12370217.htm One of the major goals was to boost financial activity of China's bank in the area, especially in the area of giving loans to small and medium companies, aiming at significant growth. What is also important about this agreement is that despite all political and economic fluctuations in Egypt, this country remained being one of the key destinations of Chinese business activity in the whole Middle East and North Africa region.
Undeniably, Chinese strong positions in MENA region triggered deep concerns among Western states, who used to play leading economic and strategic role there. China's arrival in the region became a sort of an alternative to traditional Western domination. China achieved such an evident success due to its smart and balanced foreign policy strategy. Beijing demonstrated well thought-out combination of active economic involvement, cultural elements of soft power policy, accompanied by political strategy of non-interference in domestic affairs. In fact, this Chinese readiness to look for compromise and listen to other party concerns became a huge advantage in comparison with policy of Western states.
2.2 North Africa, Union for the Mediterranean and China market space
In every political unrest, there is always a starting point, triggering all following events. As we all know, the Arab Spring started with self-immolation act of Mohammed Bouazizi on 18th of December 2010 in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. This event triggered resistance movement in Tunisian society. One month later, on 25th of December 2011, turmoil movement devoured Egypt, which started with mass protests in the Cairo Tahir square. We have to pay closer attention to the protest movement in Egypt, at least due to the unique and important role of the country in the Arab world. With regard to severe unrest in Egypt, happened in winter 2010-2011, it is extremely relevant to remember Henry Kissinger's quote: “You cannot make war in the Middle East without Egypt and you cannot make peace without Syria”. Henry Kissinger quote. http://izquotes.com/quote/103291As we can see, even legendary global political personalities devote special role to Egypt in MENA region and consider it being one of the political and cultural pillars of the region. However, there are two sides of a coin of being central regional player, as such uniqueness can make the state a sort of the leverage to contribute either to peace or to conflict in the region.
Beijing officials have also been regarding Egypt as one of the major platforms for future penetration to Middle East and African markets. What is also significant, is that Egypt was the first Arab country to establish diplomatic ties with China in 1956. Consequently, building friendly relations with Egypt have been one of the primary directions of China foreign policy strategy in MENA region for quite a long period of time. To begin with, Egypt geographical location is extremely beneficial because of several reasons. First of all, it is located very close to both Persian Gulf states and Europe. Moreover, Egyptian government controls Suez Canal, and even the slightest possibility to get bigger transportation incentives is a huge stimulus to enhance bilateral relations. With regard to official calculations, nowadays 8% of global trade and 3% of global energy supply goes through the Suez Canal.Why Egypt Suez Canal is so important for the world economy. http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-the-middle-eastMoreover, Suez Canal is strategically crucial point for Chinese cargos. Now only 60% of all Chinese commercial ships use Suez Canal, and enabling all of them to transit Suez is a primary task not only for Beijing, but also for Cairo. With regard to this data, for now 2/5 of Chinese cargos have to circumnavigate Africa to reach key ports in Northern Europe.
Consequently, Suez Canal traffic interruption is the worst outcome for China, as this would have caused severe damage to Chinese exporters, what would have undoubtedly triggered fluctuations in Chinese economy. With regard to this fact, when the Arab Spring had only started, nobody could have predicted what exactly was going to happen next, so it was impossible to eliminate the possibility of traffic interruption in the situation of political instability in Egypt. Therefore, even only because of the cargos logistic importance and extremely rich cultural heritage, Egypt is a strategic pillar and target for political games of leading powers on the international arena.
However, besides transportation field of cooperation, Beijing and Cairo managed to build strong economic ties. For example, in 2005 trade flow between two states reached the number of $2,1 billion. By the end of 2000s even more economic opportunities opened for both Egypt and China. In 2009, China Unionpay (CUP) - the only national bankcard association in PRC, signed an agreement with Egyptian Mediterranean Smart Card Company (MSCC).Mediterranean Smart Cards Company sigs an agreement with China Unionpay. http://www.emp-group.com/fr/releases/mediterranean-smart-cards-company-signs-agreement-with-china-unionpay/ The agreement made huge contribution to China Unionpay international acceptance and use, and granted more financial freedom for Chinese to use the ATM and POS networks in Egypt.
Moreover, even after the Arab Spring upheaval and number of changes in Cairo ruling elite, China managed to secure its interests and even to enhance cooperation with Egypt. In 2013, Chinese state-owned Sinopec purchased a stake in the US energy company Apaches Egyptian oil field operations. It was a $3.1 billion deal for 33% stake in a company.Chediak Mark, James Paton, Guo Aibing. Sinopec to acquire $3.1 billion stake in Apache Egypt Assets. http://www.bloomberg.com/topics/companies/APA:US What is especially remarkable about this deal is that Chinese company purchased the right to conduct operations in the Western Desert, located far from the centers of political instability in Egypt. With such deal, China secures its investments in the region.
In August 2015, Egypt New Suez Canal initiative was successfully conjoined with China's Belt and Road Initiatives. According to approximate estimations, Suez Canal annual ship traffic revenues are expected to increase up to $15 billion by 2023. The world is not enough. Egypt's new Suez Canal Conjoins Chinese Silk Road. http://sputniknews.com/business/20150807/1025506576.html Moreover, Cairo also plans to open a number of new ports and plants along the canal's bank. Prospectively, realization of all these projects will cause the increase in investment flow and promote the restoration of post-Arab Spring Egypt. In fact, that is one of the examples of China's win-win diplomacy, allowing it to get significant benefits due to its flexible political behavior while dealing with potential partners.
The Tianjin Economic and Technological Development Area (TEDA) invests in economic zone, located near Cairo.МмЅтМ©ґпИл№ЙЅЁЙи°Јј°ЛХТБКїѕГієПЧчЗшЎЈ (TEDA invests in Suez special economic zone).http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5ce7a48a0100gwzr.html Within this area, both Chinese and Egyptian manufacturers can conduct their business under certain tax incentives and with the help of government concessions. Moreover, this economic zone located very close to Suez Canal, what makes the territory even more attractive for investments. It is officially announces that TEDA plans to invest about $200 million in Cairo zone in coming years.
There are plenty of examples, demonstrating Chinese business activity in managing day-today commodities delivery and storage services, demonstrating its importance in the region trade sector. For example, in Egypt, China's shipping company COSCO has a 20 percent share in the Danish Maersk container port in Port Said. Li Christina. China's strategic shift toward the region of the four seas: the Middle Kingdom arrives in the Middle East. http://www.rubincenter.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/
Undeniably, the change of the political regime in the state may cause cancellation of some agreements and create obstacles for future cooperation. Nevertheless, with regard to post- Arab Spring Egypt, each new leading power understood the importance of China-Egypt economic relations, and despite all political shifts, China remained being one of the key directions of Cairo foreign policy. For example, when in summer 2010 Mohammad Morsi was elected as a new President of Egypt, Western and Chinese Mass Media sounded rather skeptical while writing about future prospects of China on Egyptian market. The biggest concern was about the growing role of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its Islamization policy. Nevertheless, despite all forecasts, China appeared to be the point of destination for the first international visit of Mohammad Morsi. Morsi came to China together with 90 Egypt businessmen, and by the end of the Egyptian President official visit, two counties businessmen signed 8 agreements in such fields as telecommunication, agriculture and tourism. In addition, Beijing promised Egyptian authorities to give $200 million credit to promote the country recovery after the end of the Revolution.НвГЅ:ДВ¶ыОч·Г»ЄПФВ¶ґУёщ±ѕЙПЅбКшТААµОч·ЅХЅВФ(waimi: Muersi fang huaxian lu cong genben shang jieshu yilai xifang zhanlue. Foreign Mass Media: Muersi came to China in order to demonstrate Egypt divergence from West). http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2012/08-30/4145796.shtmlMoreover, right during the rule of Morsi, China and Egypt launched joint new huge infrastructure projects For example, China and Egypt signed a contract on construction of high-speed railway, connecting in one transportation network Cairo, Alexandria, Luxor, Hurghada and Aswan. As we can see, the importance of China-Egypt economic connections is a priority for both sides, as even in the environment of political instability and some strategic misunderstandings, economic interconnection continued playing decisive role.
In addition, the role of Egypt in the Arab world is much bigger then it may seem. Egypt is not only one of the economic centers in MENA region, but also cultural cradle of the Arab world. In fact, its cultural importance makes it very influential and meaningful with regard to regional processes. To sum up, in many ways, from cultural and political perspectives Egypt is relatively easy target to pressure, and any kind of distraction in this state can trigger chain of issues in the whole region due to its leading positions in the area. Moreover, Egyptian problems reflect a lot Chinese economic interests in MENA region, what makes Cairo even more attractive victim of external political games of big powers.
As far as China's economic interests in North Africa region are concerned, it is important to bear in mind its geographic closeness with Europe. With regard to this fact, some scholars assume that North African countries turned into highly beneficial goods distribution point to further export to European market. Eugenia Pecoraro, China's Strategy in North Africa: New economic challenges for the Mediterranean region, Working Paper 26/2010, Institut Universitari d'Estudis Europeus,p. 21 It is also important to add that some of the North African states are connected with Europe by beneficial trade agreements, which also include a point that goods manufactured in the region can be exported to the EU with comparatively low tariff barriers. Taking into consideration smart Chinese policy and its recent burst of interest towards MENA region states, it would seem rather reasonable to research the issue. In addition, it is possible to assume that Egypt has special role in this process.
Talking about North Africa states and their economic cooperation with European Union, we need to understand specific characteristics of Union for the Mediterranean operation. In order to enhance cooperation between EU member states and its Southern Mediterranean, Middle East and North African partners, during the conference of Europe-Mediterranean Ministers of Foreign Affairs (27-28 November 1995), 15 EU members and 12 Mediterranean partners launched the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EUROMED), also known as Barcelona Process. Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. http://eeas.europa.eu/euromed/index_en.htm Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan were also among founders of this Partnership. Barcelona Process was devoted to the promotion of socio-economic cooperation between participants and tackling number of crucial issues in different areas. 1995 meeting resulted in adoption of the Barcelona Declaration, and one of the most remarkable decisions was to establish free-trade area by 2010. Barcelona declaration. http://ufmsecretariat.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Declaraci%C3%B3n-de-Barcelona-1995.pdf With regard to this, initial agreement suggested gradual elimination of tariffs and nontariff barriers to trade in manufactured products and linearization of trade in agricultural products through reciprocal preferential access of all parties. As a result of Paris Summit in 2008, Barcelona Process was re-launched as the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM). Final Statement. Marseille, 3-4 November 2008. http://ufmsecretariat.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/dec-final-Marseille-UfM.pdf With regard to the "update", number of new regional and sub-regional projects were initiated, aiming at areas such as energy, economy, culture, environment, etc. For now, there are 43 member states in total, without Syria, which announced it self-suspension in June 2011.
There are also further announced ambitious projects, aiming at enhancing economic cooperation of Europe with Arab countries. One of such plans - is creation of Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EUROMED FTA). In 2004, the Agadir Agreement between Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt is considered to be the first real step on the way of realization of this FTA. The agreement entered into force in 2006, and main goals of it are harmonization of the legislation, standards and various custom procedures.
The European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) was launched in 2004 as a framework of EU cooperation with its closest East European, North African and Middle East neighbors. The ENP is complemented by three regional and multilateral initiatives, including 2008 re-launched EUROMED. European Neighborhood Policy. http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/about-us/index_en.htm ENP is aimed at 16 countries, and 12 of them are full participants, and agreed on all ENP action plans. What is extremely important to highlight, is that Egypt among these "full-partner" countries. At the same time Libya and Syria still remain being outside of most structures and projects of ENP.
One of the examples of bilateral agreements between EU and Arab country is EU-Egypt Association Agreement (AA), which was signed in 2001, and then entered into force in 2004.Egypt country strategy paper (2007-2013). http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/pdf/country/enpi_csp_egypt_en.pdf Within the next several years EU-Egypt trade was significantly liberalized, trade balance raised since 11.5 billion euro in 2004 to 13.3 billion euro in 2005. EU also contributed to the simplification of number of technical procedures and standards. All these measures made enhanced EU-Egypt trade and made the process much more transparent.
To sum up, all the above mentioned agreements aimed at intensification of trade, simplification of bureaucratic procedures, improvement of labor force flow rules. In exchange, EU decided to offer more incentives and prospects of cooperation for countries that perform better results in democracy development. Finally, Union for the Mediterranean can be regarded also as EU tool to spread its political ideas to MENA region and promote its interests in exchange for economic commodities, including natural fuel resources. However, at the same time, such Union with extremely beneficial trade conditions can be used as a platform for conquering additional markets. In fact, that's what Chinese business quite successfully managed to do for a very short time period. Due to Beijing strong economic presence in MENA region and North African Arab states in particular, it became possible to use certain trade benefits even without being a member-state.
Nowadays there is even a fight for the Mediterranean area economic space. In fact, this region suggests beneficial incentives to establish different types of manufacturing there. One of the main factors to launch production system there - is cheap labor force. Bearing in mind the closeness of this territory to the EU, and global tendency to relocate all types of industries from developed countries to developing ones in order to cut expenses, Mediterranean states perfectly fit required standards to accept European industries. With regard to this fact, cheap Mediterranean labor force causes complications for the Chinese manufacturers, as they also have to lower wages to stay competitive on the global market.World geopolitics and the battle for the Mediterranean. http://www.globalresearch.ca/world-geopolitics-and-the-battle-for-the-mediterranean/21638 In addition, as far as one of the aims of the UfM is to create comfort trade conditions within the Union and eliminate maximum amount of all trade barriers. In other words, ability to include Chinese goods in the trade flow of the UfM is a matter of financial success for Beijing, as otherwise, some Chinese goods can theoretically be pushed out of the European market share.
In addition, analysis of China economic activity in MENA region shows that Egypt indeed used to be one of the primary platforms for Chinese business involvement. In fact, Beijing viewed Egypt as a central point for future economic expansion as to MENA region, as to Europe. Consequently, any instability in Egypt is a huge danger to Chinese finances and regional strategic influence. Thus, the fight for loyalty of Egyptian government is a matter of concern both for China and Western players, meaning that changes in the political regime of the state harm one party and bring incentives to other one.
To conclude, the world is huge and different processes constantly happening in different parts of the world. Some events are broadcasted by Mass Media and become an agenda of various international meetings and round tables. However, some processes appear to be rather vague and seem not that much important. The same issues can be applied towards the penetration of Chinese goods to European market through Beijing close cooperation with North African member-states of Union for Mediterranean. However, better understanding of the picture shows that some smaller process may have crucial effect on future state of affairs, and be one of the underlying reason of fundamental events on the global arena.
Conclusion
The Arab Spring events caused new wave of global interest towards MENA region. In fact, when the upheaval had only started, nobody could have predicted that it would cause such fundamental consequences for both regional and global political and economic environment. We can focus on different dimensions of this period in MENA history, including triggers of the riots, roles of external players and gains of each involved party. Indeed, the Arab Spring is a sort of a unique case study and a very complicated phenomenon to research changes in global political order and highlight main features of global economic and political competition in the XXI century.
On the other hand, talking about world leading players at the “power chess board” is always a tricky issue. With regard to strategic competition between the strongest global players any “brave” assumption is always harshly criticized by both academic society and political groups. At the same time only truly comprehensive and well-proven assumption can be seriously viewed by interested public. By no means, without new approaches or at least innovative ideas in the research of widely discussed issue, it is impossible to take a look at situation form different angle and evaluate it with maximum objectivity.
We can hear number of different versions and opinions in Mass Media and Academia concerning the reasons of contemporary armed conflicts. However, whatever the announced reasons are, and whoever is largely agreed upon to being responsible for conflict, talks about fuel resources factor and economic incentives are usually excluded from official announcements and suggestions. Moreover, in Mass Media these tensions are usually described as political or cultural, because it is easier for masses to understand and believe in political opposition and political regime issues, rather than dive deep into economic field and calculate costs. In fact, national pride, stimulated by the need to protect own state form external enemies is a huge mass mobilization tool. Moreover, it makes explanation of the internal and external policy behavior easier for the government. At the same time, understanding complicated economic war strategies is much more difficult process and does not sound that much “trustworthy” for the population.
With regard to the topic of global powers strategic competition, the issue of Rising China is indeed one of the most crucial questions for contemporary International relations scholars. What is more important, its future relations with the US is one of the most discussible topics in the academia. In simple words, the main argument is about whether China economically and politically would finally overcome the US and would become new global leader, or the US would manage to preserve its global place, and would continue its political domination on the international arena. Of course, it would be way too oversimplified to say that there are just two probable outcomes, as far as real situation is much more complicated and it is almost impossible to take into account all influencing factors.
However, some global processes by no means should be regarded as indicators of shifts in a certain dimension of world order. For example, we define the economic strength of the state based on some concrete economic statistical data. We also can estimate the possibility of the state to resists global economic fluctuations on the basis of its economic stability indicators during the crisis period. The same is about the ability of the state to protect its sovereign borders, as we can calculate its military capacity, based on official data and statements of the political leaders. With regard to political strength, there are no generally accepted factors, allowing to determine the most influential country in the world. Every scholar ranks political strength of the state with regard to some chosen set of criteria.
Nevertheless, any strong state strives to provide reasonable political and economic heritage to provide successful development for future generations. Global development shows that in the future nations will fight not for territory or authority, but just for natural resources to survive in harsh demographic and environmental conditions. Middle East and North Africa region is a cradle of oil and gas natural deposits. Therefore, strong strategic position in the region can guarantee both economic benefits and global political influence now, and prosperous future. With regard to this fact, China perceives the US attempts to dominate in the energy sector of MENA region as a threat to its national interests. Moreover, in 2004 during the G-8 Summit in Georgia, the US leadership proposed the initiative to promote democratic and liberal transition in the Arab and Muslim world. Proposed framework became known as the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative. Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative makes progress. http://2001-2009.state.gov/p/nea/rls/49781.htm The PRC leadership did not praise this initiative, as far as it was assured that this initiative was promoted only to enhance the US control over the Middle East and North Africa. Such state of affairs undeniably did not correspond with Beijing strategic plans in the region.
Bearing in mind the role of MENA region as energy generation source, it becomes clear why political instability there creates concerns in every part of the world. The Arab Spring erupted due to number of factors. However, the most commonly named reason of the upheaval was the desire of MENA population states to get rid of dictatorship government and establish democratic rule in the states. It would be rather naпve to claim that mass protests erupted only due to political restrictions and economic difficulties. If we take a look at various economic indicators in MENA state, we will see that such states as, for example, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt had been performing quite stable economic growth prior to 2008 world economic crisis. Moreover, in 2007 Egypt performed the highest GDP growth in North Africa region, and Lebanon the highest FDI flow. World statistics. http://world-statistics.org/index-res.php?code=NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?name=GDP%20per%20capita%20growth%20(annual%20%) With regard to data, we hereby stress that from economic point of view these states indeed had a potential to provide well-being in the society and build prosperous states. Of course, governments granted much less political freedom to the population, but other needs of the citizens were at least partially satisfied by the state. For example, in 2007-2008 in such states as Syria and Libya educated people ratio exceeded 85% of all population. As we may see, even though there were some undeniable political and economic limitations, they barely could have resulted in such a sudden and severe resistance, performed by the population without additional stimulus or outer influence. These facts prove once again that reasons of the Arab Spring events are much more complicated and the desire of people to fight for political freedom is just the explanation that satisfies global masses and does not require additional questions to be answered and inner processes to be analyzed. Bearing in mind the fact that the access to natural resources and financial flows is a matter of not only survival, but also a political prestige for biggest global powers, economic presence in resource-rich MENA region is a major prize for global powers, aiming at enhancing its political and economic strength.
One may say that Chinese economy is slowing down, causing the decline of the energy demand, and there is absolutely no necessity for Beijing to interfere in big economic games in MENA region to provide access to fuel resources. In fact, this is an obvious reaction, which comes to minds of those who follow general economic trends in PRC and in the whole world. However, the Arab Spring events, happened in winter 2010-2011, and at that time Chinese economy was growing fast, and it is unlikely that official leadership would have expected such a significant economic slowdown in the next several years. In other words, the end of the first decade of the XXI century was marked with highly intensive economic and strategic expansion of Beijing influence all around the world, including MENA region. Even now, taking into account economic difficulties, China still strives for cheap and secure flow of natural fuel resources and MENA deposits are indeed a matter of interest for Beijing. Moreover, geographic location of this region plays a connecting role between China and Western and African markets. Therefore, making most evident conclusions is at least inappropriate, especially with regard to economic games of world biggest powers.
Even though we observe some apparent shift in power balance in MENA region, it is hard to argue that the US still remains being a dominant foreign player in the region. However, the changes are going on, and some crucial event may cause drastic alteration in the future balance of powers there. Due to all the complexity of the China-US relations on global political arena, and with regard to undeniable spirit of competitiveness between these two huge powers. Bearing in mind that Middle East and North Africa region is a strategically important area for both states, and predominance there grants an access to huge natural resources deposits and also guarantees international recognition as a leading world power, able to protect its national interests and pursue its own and independent foreign policy course. Therefore, we argue that it is impossible to deny the assumption that clear and objective understanding of current US-China relations is a basis for analyzing events, occurring in MENA region.
With regard to all cooperation incentives, such MENA states as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, or Tunisia view China more as a strategic partner, and definitely not the enemy. However, at the same time these countries also do not want close ties with China to endanger their balanced relations with the US. The White House remains being major player in the region and local players perfectly understand that keeping normal relations with Washington is an essential factor of peaceful development. Moreover, due to the US ability to use forced leverages, even the slightest mismatch with Washington interests may result in significant shift in political and social spheres of MENA states.
As far as security issue is concerned, China used to contribute much less to the security of the region, especially in the comparison with the US military supplies. In a certain way that's why we can call China a “free rider” on US power and influence in MENA. With regard to this fact, when China had only started its penetration to the region, this fact also allowed Beijing to give priority to the economic cooperation, and push out on the backstage the security issues. However, due to the gradual rise of China and the need to transform its foreign policy behavior, official Beijing started to enhance its military and naval presence in MENA region. First of all, starting from 2008-2009, China conducts counter-piracy operations in the region, demonstrating its ability to protect its own shipments and provide secure transportation line for other countries cargos also. The opportunity to deploy forces under the counter-piracy operations cover allows China do it without being criticized form the international community. Back in 2008, China for the first time sent several ships of its Naval Forces to the Gulf of Aden to fight against pirates and provide safety of sea shipping.ЦР№ъХюё®ѕц¶ЁЕЙЅўё°СЗ¶ЎНеЛчВнАпЦґРР»¤єЅИООс. (zhongguo zhengfu jueding paijian fu yadingwan suomali zhenxin huhuang renwu.Chinese government decided to send military ships to the Gulf of Aden to help Somali convoy ships): http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hqzx/2008-12/21/content_7325624.htm Official calculations show that since that time China has protected more than 5000 commercial ships from China. Also, in line with its rising economy, China yearly increases military expenditures. More Jack. China's growing role in counter-piracy operations. http://cimsec.org/chinas-growing-role-in-counter-piracy-operations/2777 In addition, Chinese officials managed to reach an agreement with approximately 12 MENA ports to provide resupply military-to-military engagements.
In fact, security instability in the region is a huge threat to Chinas national interests, especially with regard to its dependency on MENA fuel energy sources. The issue of piracy in the region causes threat to lose part of the transported goods, what is a huge problem for exporters. What is also worth saying is that it was calculated that crossing the waters near Somalia costs about 2.7 billion dollars in extra fuel, because cargos are forced to leave this area as soon as possible. Global shipping lanes map. http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/assets/4232407/global-shipping-lanes-map.png This number is indicated as largest expense for companies-exporters, caused by piracy. As far as resources and goods delivery from North African region is concerned, it requires cargos crossing rather vulnerable area of Gulf of Aden, and this fact creates even more motives for China to look for additional itinerary of fuel resource delivery. In a line with sea transportation, there is also a chance to organize ground transportation route. However, ground route also has number of limitations, and one of the most difficult things is to find “infrastructure” allies in the region and make sure that political regime in the state is friendly and mutual cooperation will finally result in accomplished project.
While talking about external actors interested in MENA region and each side active and passive roles in the unrest, it is crucial to take into account global value of oil and gas prices and market fluctuations. Two main factors determine the price of fuel resources. Major factor is framed by generally accepted and well-known laws of market demand-supply law. However, as far as human factor also plays huge role in modern world situation, factors of threat and ordinary fear influence a lot on the world prices market. One of the targets of the unrest in MENA region - weaken position of Russia and Iran there by flooding the world market with Saudi Arabia cheap oil. Political unrest in the region opens door to one more process, namely redistribution of spheres of oil and gas influence.The Seceret Stupid Saudi-US deal on Syria. Oil Gas pipeline war. http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-secret-stupid-saudi-us-deal-on-syria/5410130 Regional players fight for the chance to deliver resources to the biggest consumers of energy, including China. Even thought for such huge customers as China low oil prices is a good news, political unrest that may cause change in former strategic partners political regime change is the worst probable outcome. Consequently, MENA unrest also weakens China's position in the region, what is in the West interests. In addition, due to gradual slowdown in economic growth, China seeks for cheaper delivery of efficient and ecology friendly gas as a substitute for oil. Therefore, “Islamic pipeline” and its future connection with Pakistan network is a strategic project for Chinese side. Accomplishment of Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline project is indeed not in the interest of the US and its allies in MENA region. With regard to this project, the Arab Spring events also created complicated environment to implement the project.
As far as the Arab Spring events are concerned, supporting Bashar Asad regime in Syria is indeed in Beijing interests also because of number of security reasons. First of all, Russia has a naval facility in the port of Tartus, and Chinese can easily get a permission to park their navy there. Moreover, Asad Syria is political ally of Iran in MENA region, and both of them are ready to cooperate closely with Beijing. With regard to these facts, preservation of Asad administration power in Damascus is an essential factor to accomplish China-supported “Islamic pipeline” project. Such international position demonstrates the wish and ability of the state to increase not only its economic presence in the region, but also to make one more political step forward to increase its role in the region and demonstrate its opponents potential power.
With regard to current political situation in the region, we can see that recently the tensions over the Syrian issue have relatively softened. Probably, Turkey decided to make a shift towards pipeline B plan through Iraq territory. In fact, the desire of Ankara to deploy military forces can be easily explained with the need to pressure Iraq and persuade them to agree for the construction deal. Is Erdogan's Mosul Escapade Blackmail For Another Qatar-Turkey Pipeline?http://www.globalresearch.ca/is-erdogans-mosul-escapade-blackmail-for-another-qatar-turkey-pipeline/5494869 Once again, the underlying cause of the tensions is not about political sympathy or religious misunderstanding, but much more about the access to natural resources deposits and ability get financial incentives in the future.
It is extremely important to add, that for Beijing MENA region is also a gate to European and African markets. Some North African states, due to their close geographical location to European Union use some trade privileges and face less trade barriers. In fact, for Chinese it is technically easier and cheaper to invest in different sectors of North African states and then distribute produced goods to Europe. Whereas economic penetration directly to Europeans market involves much more bureaucratic procedures and requires larger amount of invested money. With regard to this fact, we assume that Chinas active cooperation with Arabic states-members of Union for the Mediterranean is one of the strategies aimed at occupying bigger market share in Europe. From this prospective, European states undoubtedly feel increasing economic influence of China, and seek any possibility to weaken Beijing strategy and make it play in accordance with European rules of behavior. Therefore, China - UfM cooperation is one more interesting research topic to dive deeper into the issue of China's global economic strategy and its competition with Western world.
Beijing plans to revive the old Silk Road with its “One belt, one road” initiative make the situation even more complicated. Even if initially the project was regarded only as ambitious plan, gradually it turned out to be feasible strategy for conquering new sales markets. This project was largely supported by Beijing Central Asian and MENA partners. However, final destination of New Silk Road is Europe, and European leaders tend to be very careful in dealing with Beijing, and even make China partially reconsider their plans with regard to European interests. Taking into account that MENA states and Suez Canal area play key role in this plan, there is a possibility for European leading power to lose major influence in these territories, what makes China-Europe strategic competition even more tensed. To sum up, the need to occupy new sales markets is a reason to fight for the loyalty of the local governments, even with the use of pressure methods.
To conclude, we hereby confirm that there is a clash of Western and Chinese economic interests in Middle East and North Africa region. Threatening China's access to MENA oil and gas reserves and sales markets is a great tool for the West to slow down Beijing global growing political and economic influence and shake Chinese strategic plans. Because, otherwise, Chinese would have managed to accomplish huge infrastructure and investment projects, threatening Western strategic interests in the region. Global clash for the access to oil and gas reserves, accompanied by the market prices war have become determining factors of political environment in MENA region. Of course, weakening China was not the only target of external players, involved in shaking the Arab Spring events. Nevertheless, competition of world leading powers resulted in long-term instability in Middle East and North Africa region. Even with its officially announced policy of non-interference in states domestic affairs, Beijing has become one of the major actors, influencing the Arab Spring process and its consequences. As we can see, China has provided enough areas of support in the region, and despite all the challenges, it seems like China's foreign policy clever strategy proved its efficiency and will bring even more incentives to the state in the future.
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