Tools of Managerial Decision-Making while Investing in Blockchain Projects
Consideration of the specifics of cryptocurrency, analysis of the market, as well as the development of decision-making tools. Understanding the field based on statistical data, interviews with cryptocurrency market professionals and personal experience.
Рубрика | Менеджмент и трудовые отношения |
Вид | дипломная работа |
Язык | английский |
Дата добавления | 04.12.2019 |
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Federal state educational institution of higher education
National research university
Higher school of economics
Saint Petersburg School of Economics and Management
Department of Management
Bachelor's thesis
In the field 38.03.02 `Management'
Educational programme `Management'
Tools of Managerial Decision-Making while Investing in Blockchain Projects
Maidanov Valerii,
Dorofeev Dmitriy,
Snopov Boris
Saint-Petersburg 2019
Abstract
This research work's topic is "Tools of Managerial Decision-Making while Investing in Blockchain Projects", where investments into blockchain projects were analyzed from a managerial point of view. The whole crypto projects` market was reviewed. Such aspects as crypto-market specifics, analysis of the ICO market and its statistics, as well as developing tools of analysis and decision making were considered. Special attention was given to the ICO and post-ICO stages of investing. This research paper strives to develop tools of decision making, using a deep understanding of the area based on gathered statistic, interviews with crypto-market professionals and personal working experience in the industry. The universal parameters for every project were handpicked, systematized and described, so were the correlations between them. The "R" software was used to conduct the statistical analysis. Based on the research task, in the bachelor's thesis, such moments as a history of new blockchain industry, the main principles of its functioning, and important investing aspects were consistently considered. This research work can be used in the future by the investors as a guide for the industry. Furthermore, the data gathered by our team is valuable for further investigations and may lead to the emergence of more complicated analytics.
Keywords: Blockchain, ICO, Investments, Cryptocurrency
Table of contents
Chapter 1. Introduction
Chapter 2. Theoretical foundation
Chapter 3. Statement of the research question
Chapter 4. Methodology
Chapter 5. Results
Chapter 6. Conclusion
References
Appendix
Chapter 1. Introduction
The development of a digital economy based on the blockchain technology has become a leading global trend. Blockchain or distributed ledger technology may be called just one of the new concepts in the current digital era. Despite different market conditions on the cryptocurrencies market, the technology on which their existence is built has not lost its relevance, but on the contrary, is accelerating rapidly. It can be observed how news headlines regularly mention events in this area. More and more companies announce their intentions for implementation of blockchain based tools within their businesses. A huge increase in industrial and academic interest regarding blockchain is evident. It has serious advantages not only for businesses but for the world as a whole.
It has already become a tendency to think that blockchain technology can only be used in the financial sphere - with its help people can get rid of the many disadvantages of the traditional banking system. These include a large chain of intermediaries, high commissions for transactions, lack of anonymity. It is not entirely true. All activities related to the storage and transmission of data, as well as the area where a person has traditionally been a guarantee of trust and certification can be changed a lot. Experts believe that in the coming years, blockchain will firmly take its rightful place in jurisprudence, notarial services, copyright, venture investment, medicine, archives, the electoral process, social networks and even in the development of the infrastructure of the internet itself. And these are not just beautiful words, many public people have already spoken about the blockchain, including German Gref (head of Sberbank and former Minister of Economic Development of Russia). He expressed confidence that blockchain systems could revolutionize all branches of human life. In one of the public speeches, he called for the replacement of Sberbank's expensive information system in the near future since it was outdated and did not meet the requirements of the future. In the same vein, the head of the Ministry of Communications and Communications, Nikolay Nikiforov, expresses his statements. He assured citizens that the necessary research has already been done and urged everyone to focus not on today, but on 5-10 years ahead. The fact that the giant banks (JP Morgan, Barclays, etc.) are engaged in the study of this cryptocurrency speaks in favor of blockchain-systems. Especially for this, they even joined a consortium called "R3" to fully explore the possibilities of blockchain. In addition to economic efficiency, the safety factor is also important. Since its inception, the "Bitcoin" virtual system has been subjected to numerous attacks and hacking attempts. All these attempts were unsuccessful, which is another argument in favor of the blockchain. At the same time, it can be concluded that in addition to the banking sector, this technology may be applicable in various fields of life, including the governmental levels. As partly described above, Big corporations such as Microsoft, Intel, IBM are preparing for blockchain mass adoption. They are working intensely on blockchain-based applications, making this one of the most promising drivers of financial innovation. Our research team is going to reveal all the possible risks while investing in blockchain-based projects from the point of an ordinary investor, not a fund or institution. All the crucial differences between stages of investments (pre-sale, ICO, post-ICO) will be considered to distinguish the investment phases. We believe that while blockchain technology is still in infancy stage it is vital for people to be careful enough not to lose large sums of money. Generally, the study is about the tools of managerial decision-making while investing in blockchain projects. (Dorofeev, Maidanov, Snopov, 2019) cryptocurrency market decision
In traditional sphere laws and mechanism have already been developed. There are a lot of studies and the sphere mostly works with common scenarios. The blockchain sphere is a new field to develop, laws are different. At the moment there is already a large number of scientific papers. However, for the most part, they are devoted to the descriptive mechanisms and principles of the technology. This is only the initial stage of the mass adaptation for this new technology; society is gradually exploring how the blockchain works. For the most part, people`s mind is not able to understand technical information. Understanding the blockchain is difficult because this technology lacks adaptive reflection for ordinary users, it is not available to them. If to go back to the existing scientific works, their authors mostly try to clarify key concepts. In addition, many papers are devoted to potential areas of application of technology, as well as key industries. The scientific world is faced with the task of popularizing the theory in order to maintain interest not only to in-depth users. This will allow attracting new specialists to work in this area. At the same time, a situation arises when emerging enthusiasm among young specialists comes to a standstill due to the lack of necessary information for practical interaction as regards to the blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Our work is aimed at such category of people to show them how to invest while being in the blockchain-related sphere, not to lose capital and not be afraid to learn new technologies. This is what blockchain lacks for the current day. Most investors fear to contact with cryptocurrencies due to a lack of understanding of the market mechanisms, as well as an unstable situation regarding the exchange rate of these currencies. In fact, it is a large and currently underrated market that has great potential in the future due to the cutting edge blockchain technology on which most cryptocurrencies are built.
It can be said that new technologies always attract many people for different reasons. Someone became real fans of particular industries; someone just wants to gain money from the new promising sphere. Ideally, if there is an intention to gain money by investments in any markets, people have to spend a lot of time studying new industry. This is exactly what may bring some additional relief to act rationally. However, every new promising sphere influence on people's behavior making them sometimes too self-confident and therefore risky. In most of the cases, all the promising industries that have been emerged are needed time to become stable. In the infancy stage risks are higher and the chances to lose a lot are higher accordingly. Therefore, if you are a competent skillful investor you can possibly pretend to profit from someone`s losses. Currently, a lot of existing researches regarding blockchain are connected with understanding this technology and are not focused on the investors` safety. In such investigations, it is easy to see warnings regarding risks of investments into cryptocurrencies however nothing concrete is described of how to prevent these risks. Our research team sees it as a wide research gap that is needed to be solved. (Dorofeev, Maidanov, Snopov, 2019) We will study existing risk avoiding methods, strategies and its practical usability based on investors response, recent cases and theoretical review. The purpose type of our research is exploratory. The objective is to study what are the main factors considering investments in blockchain startups and to make a guide that will help to avoid losses while manager works with blockchain. Our main sources of data gathering are in-depth interviews with crypto-related enthusiasts on the blockchain conferences. Following the objective of our study, it is necessary to provide the research question: Which aspects should be considered while investing in blockchain projects? This study will check the following hypotheses:
a) Short-term strategies are more effective for ICO investments rather than long-term ones;
b) Investments in projects which were already chosen by funds are profitable for ordinary investors;
c) "Blockchains" and "Blockchain service" categories of ICOs (infrastructure ones) are more preferable for investments related to other categories;
d) The presence of "High public bonus" is better for the profitability of blockchain project;
e) The degree of hype around a blockchain project positively affects its profitability for investors;
f) There are certain indicators of ICO which negatively influence on projects` profitability.
We define the following list of tasks to achieve the stated objective:
- To study recent literature about blockchain technology, investments in blockchain;
- To observe the existing investment strategies;
- To conduct the practical part and reveal current strategies from real investors;
- To formulate the most effective strategies for a particular case;
- To compare theoretical background and practical results;
- According to previous steps, create the blockchain investment guide.
Let us consider the tasks in more detail. In the initial stages, it is important to make a full review of the existing literature. Based on the latest scientific works, it is possible to trace the important stages of technology development, as well as to see the current picture more clearly. This is important for both the research team and subsequent readers. For the best assimilation of the presented material the theoretical base of research will be presented in the section "Theoretical foundation". The second task is to systematize the accumulated knowledge, i.e. to identify existing strategies for investment. Since investments in blockchain projects, in general, are essentially similar to investments in other projects, we expect that the existing strategies of investors will find their application in this area. It can be assumed that significant differences will be observed in the frequency of use of these strategies. This means that frequently used strategies from the traditional investment sphere may not find such frequent application in the blockchain. To confirm or refute this information, the following task is directed. After the practical part, the strategies used by existing investors of blockchain projects will be identified. Also, these strategies will be evaluated in terms of the frequency of distribution among investors and the effectiveness of such in general. Based on existing data and the new (received as a result of practical study) we provide a comparison of the financial strategies. The fifth task is to systematize and identify the most effective strategies, taking into account all available data. These aspects are discussed in more detail in the practical part of the study. The final task is the preparation of a full guide for investors, which describes in detail the process of choosing an investment strategy and evaluating a potential blockchain project based on the theoretical side and the practice of other investors.
Since blockchain projects as a whole differ in the level of risk from the general majority, it is admissible that the methods of risk assessment may differ from the traditionally accepted ones. In case of methods, they are also connected with the chosen strategy and features of blockchain theme. To follow the logic of study, we have analyzed previous observations, surveys, interviews, and documents to formulate our own hypothesizes and to describe the chosen topic. The mixed method was used to reveal both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the topic. This significantly helped the research team not only to calculate results but also understand and describe the actual state of affairs on the blockchain market. Practical participation was also a necessary part of the work. We have visited the authoritative blockchain conference and asked individual investors regarding their personal investing strategies. The questionnaire covered aspects such as factors of decision making; risk-calculation methods; profits and losses; other needed information. Above all, our work was aimed to be actual and modern to demonstrate real existing situation on blockchain sphere. The study is useful for the whole sphere because it will help interested people to better understand blockchain technology and investments into blockchain-related instruments. The better specialists fulfill this field, the more professional and stable it will be. Structurally, the work is divided into N parts. The first part is an introduction to the topic, an explanation of basic concepts, a brief description of the study. Despite the young nature of the chosen topic, an analysis of current literature and scientific works (that have already appeared) are included. 10-year duration is not mature at all, but there are plenty of scientific works which are examined by the research team in the "theoretical foundation" part. As already mentioned, these scientific works, for the most part, devote people to the mechanisms of the blockchain, as well as related concepts. These include cryptocurrency, ICO, mining, smart contracts, etc. Sources are assembled to most accurately describe the current status of this field. Over the past year, there were many events that have significantly changed the whole industry of blockchain. As for cryptocurrencies, there was both an increase of public interest in them and decrease which have always been accompanied by good or bad market conditions. A big fall of the cryptocurrency market is confirmed by disappointing statistics on the prices of all the cryptocurrencies on the exchanges. After impressive growth in the last quarter of the year 2017, there was a significant decline in prices for almost all cryptocurrencies, including all major ones. "Bitcoin", "Ethereum", "Ripple" - they all lost in price several times. The next Chapter is devoted to the Statement of the research question. It describes in more details the question of the study, the tasks that were set for the researchers. It also provides an explanation of the research methods and detailed specification of the hypotheses. The following part is a more specified description of the selected research methods, an introduction to the terminology of the research, and expected results. This Chapter describes the research methodology. During the study, we used several complicated methods like in-depth interviews, statistical analysis and linear regression model. Next technical part describes the research process. This includes the preparation of the necessary list of questions, as well as the description of data collection and subsequent analysis. This part also provides a full description of the results of practical activities. In addition to the data itself, there is an interpretation and discussion of the analysis from the research tea. The results of the analysis are described graphically using diagrams and graphs, as well as in the written form. The linear regression model is presented as a table. The last part includes a summary of the work, a comparison of theoretical expectations and practical compliance to it. In conclusion, the research team provides comments on the work done as a whole. This part includes a summary as well as a description of the areas of the work that should be addressed in future studies. The plans of the research team are also presented in this part.
Chapter 2. Theoretical foundation
Aim of the theoretical foundation is to analyze the resources which are directly connected with the chosen topic of the research. As our research topic is not an easy one and requires understanding, the beginning of the theoretical foundation will be dedicated directly to the blockchain technology and its key milestones.
The technology which is right away replacing current international network first appeared in 1991 when Stuart Haber and W. Scott Stornett presented what many people call blockchain. Their initial work was connected with a cryptographically protected chain of blocks in which no one could counterfeit timestamps of the documents. This feature was the main one in the very beginning of the historical perspective. In 1992 Stuart Haber and W. Scott Stornett upgraded their system to include Merkle trees. Merkle tree is a so-called hash binary tree whose end nodes are transaction hashes while internal vertices are the results of the addition of the values of the associated vertices. Merkle trees have had an impact on the efficiency and allowed to collect more documents in one block.
History of blockchain.
Nevertheless, the history of blockchain is explicitly connected with "Bitcoin" which takes it origin in 2008 when a developer or a group of developers named Satoshi Nakamoto, wrote a technical paper about the new digital currency. Exactly from 2008, the blockchain story began to acquire relevance. This stage of evolution received the name Blockchain 1.0, where exactly the currency and the new, previously unknown to mankind, digital payment method began its formation (Nakamoto, 2008).
A few years later, Blockchain 2.0 came to replace Blockchain 1.0, which was characterized by the technology of "Smart Contracts", which algorithms are encrypted according to a specific scenario, programmed and embedded in the blockchain. This implementation has greatly simplified the verification, arbitration, and execution of various contracts. According to the "nature" of a smart contract, any type of interference is impossible and is instantly blocked. The "Ethereum" blockchain became a pioneer in the technology of Smart Contracts with the ethnically Russian founder Vitalik Buterin as a head (Ethereum.org, 2017).
In other words, the creation of "Bitcoin" and later "Ethereum" with its smart contracts can be called as Blockchain 1.0 and 2.0. After the emergence of smart contracts, it was therefore logical that there was a creation of decentralized apps (DApps), applications that use decentralized storage and decentralized communication with their backend code running on a decentralized peer-to-peer network. Traditional applications, on the contrary, have their own internal code running on centralized servers. Such applications in addition to their relevance were aimed also to address shortcomings of "Bitcoin" and "Ethereum" blockchains such as scalability and privacy issues. Overall, this DApp time horizon can be named as Blockchain 3.0.
After enumerating these historical milestones, it is crucial to give consideration to the main idea of blockchain. According to Iansity and Lakhani: "Blockchain is a transformative technology akin to steam and electricity, which will create new economic and social foundations" (Iansity, Lakhani, 2017). From a technical perspective, as described by Vitalik Buterin, "Blockchain is a decentralized network that has a common shared memory ("state"), which is updated by processing inputs ("transactions") coming in from the outside, according to a set of prescribed rules ("the protocol")" (Ethereum.org, 2017).
Mining.
What is mining? Mining is a process when participants use hardware to run algorithms on specific software to verify transactions on the blockchain, add those transactions to the public ledger and in exchange receive the reward of a newly created coin. (Chiu, Koeppl, 2017) Such process brings a certain portion of electronic money that is afterward deposited in a common base and recorded in public account book or blockchain. At the same time, transactions with existing coins are processed. They are checked on the computing devices of the network participants and added to the chain of blocks. During the mining process, recent transactions are authenticated and compiled into blocks. A member who first solves this problem receives a reward. This approach was designed on purpose as a reward to those who donate computing power of computers to maintain network operation and mining new coins.
The cryptocurrency which is generated by the mining process exists only in electronic form not in cash. Private computers create a cryptocurrency, central banks are not involved in this process in any way. For creating electronic coins special encryption algorithms are used. Officially cryptocurrencies are not used in any of the countries throughout the world, at the same time there are already many cryptocurrency exchanges which conduct trading in "Bitcoin" and other coins. Anyone can be engaged in the process of mining cryptocurrencies. The key point is having a machine with large computing power. Initially it was considered that for the mining purposes processor of the computer is the principal, however, in due course miners realized that video cards usage is more efficient for cryptocurrency mining. With the help of video cards, the whole process of mining is happening much faster. It is essential to understand that the prime purpose of video card is not cryptocurrency mining, but if a person chooses a video card exactly for mining, the crucial thing that should be first taken into account is the amount of video memory, the type of memory, disperse options and cooling.
There is a question how to mine cryptocurrency on a large scale? And the answer is crypto mining farm. "Crypto farm" - is a combination of fast computers needed for the calculation. Virtual money production requires complicated computations. In order to do this a set of computing equipment is joining a blockchain network. Each block is a data set consisted of ones and zeroes. Blocks are constructed in the chain not for nothing, each block has information indicating what block goes before or after the new one.
Transaction in the blockchain is a certain file containing data such as "User X gives Y "Bitcoins" to user Z". Each user has a "crypto" wallet which contains all the data regarding blockchain. User has an opportunity to check the validity of the transaction together with the time spent. Many people believe that in blockchain everything is done imperceptibly, however, all the transactions are recorded and members of the particular blockchain are aware of transactions that have been occurred. In any case, there is no passport data there and the user who has made a transaction can be identified only by wallet number.
Another important thing to understand is how a transaction is confirming its successful status. The whole process consists of combining transactions into blocks and subsequent calculating the hash of such block. Hash of the block does not afford to change information of the block thereby preventing from the possibility of counterfeiting transactions made in the block. First characters of the hash are zeroes. Calculating a hash with certain parameters does not occur instantly. On the contrary, it is needed to generate many of the hashes to finally obtain a given one. After the generation of the hash, it is important to get clarification of block validity from other members of the network. Confirmation is to verify the hash block. In the "Bitcoin" network at least 120 confirmations are needed. Such a procedure is another degree of protection from distortion. It plays a role of additional verification of online data. The above-mentioned mining process can be called as PoW (Proof-of-Work). This method is classic in cryptocurrency mining; however, it is considered a costly one. For the equitable growth of the network and the involvement of new members into the blockchain for its sustainability, increasing the complexity of the calculation for the block takes place. It generates the growth of competition among miners within the ecosystem. Main expenses of miners are related to buying high-efficiency equipment and the price of electricity for its work. Hence, each new generated "Bitcoin" is borne out by real material resource which is finite. For the generation a new coin there are several things which are needed such as: time for computing, equipment, and electricity. That implied a statement that "Bitcoin" cannot be taken a virtual currency for granted (Arvind Narayanan, Joseph Bonneau, 2015).
To have a strong general understanding of the mining process it is vital for managers, entrepreneurs, and investors to be aware of three main types of mining:
- Solo mining
This type of mining means that miner will only use his or her own personal computer capacity which means working individually. The main advantage of solo mining is that it does not need to share all the coins mined with others. The main disadvantage is that a search of cost-effective block may take much time. Another drawback is the difficulty of choosing a cryptocurrency itself to mine because there are different coins which have the same algorithm Proof-of-Work as "Bitcoin" does.
- Mining through pools
Pool means a server that can combine the capacity of many miners` personal computers to have more chances of finding a block. The computing power of server depends on the capacity of all the pool members, therefore, making possible to get a new block for a short period of time. A reward for the block that pool has mined is divided between the participants according to the written concluded contractual arrangement within the pool.
- Cloud mining
Another type of mining which is used is cloud mining. The main concept of such type is paying money for equipment to a certain service which will take responsibility for setting this equipment and tuning for the operating process. Accordingly, a miner may have no profound knowledge regarding all the technical processes. It is enough just to pay a certain amount of money and get profit afterward. Another crucial plus of such type of miming is that it is not obligatory for a miner to buy special equipment, it can be rented, and the profit will be proportional to the money which has been invested.
Cryptocurrencies and governmental regulation.
The following paragraph will be devoted to the Russian government and its attitude towards blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and mining as well. First of all, it is crucial to mention that conversations regarding the legal status of cryptocurrencies and mining have occurred for the last couple of years. However, lack of determination seems pretty conspicuous at the side of the Russian government. Probably the main factor of a certain fear may be connected with a willing of the government to first look at the examples of China and USA, how they will deal with blockchain and cryptocurrency related topic. By the way, in China, there is a prohibition on cryptocurrency trading and advertising. Russia currently maintains the position of anticipation. There are many words from the highest Russian authorities such as for instance Dmitry Medvedev that blockchain is vital for the studying and implementation in different spheres, however, most of such high-level officials separate blockchain technology itself and cryptocurrency. Such an approach seems quite reasonable; however, it does not change the fact that the legal field for the blockchain-related sphere is developing for so long.
For the moment it seems that during the development of a regulatory act it is necessary to define the basic concepts and formulate a categorical apparatus: what is crowdfunding, mining, token, ICO, money surrogate, cryptocurrency, virtual currency, etc. This should lead to a certain legal mechanism of cryptocurrency issuing and its further sale. In order to properly secure cryptocurrency at the legislative level, it is better not to equate cryptocurrency with fiat currency or simply monetary funds. The national currency of the Russian Federation which is ruble and other national currencies have absolutely nothing to do with cryptocurrency. Only when all the participants of the economy will be aware of the possible forms and methods of cryptocurrency usage, only then institutionalization of cryptocurrency will happen mainly by comparing it with traditional markets. In the opposing case if the cryptocurrency usage will be banned the role of money will be seriously distorted. Choosing money as an institution for people will be externally compounded.
Forming a right legislative environment while the emergence of new financial technologies in the Russian Federation should be made subject to the protection of the business rights and the population itself who use or even plan to use cryptocurrency in the future. Nevertheless, the building of such legal field requires compliance of the national interests of the Russian Federation. On the one hand new financial and even non-financial technologies based on the blockchain need to boost the level of national security, and on the other hand, provide new opportunities for Russian consumers and producers making them competitive in foreign markets. The main blocks of regulation may be suggested in the following form:
- To determine the definition of cryptocurrency and token at the legislative level bearing in mind an economic nature of this phenomenon;
- To form a legal regulation of cryptocurrency based on the establishment of the most suitable exchange format between Russian ruble, foreign currencies and cryptocurrencies accordingly;
- To make a regulatory base in order to test new financial technologies as well as to establish rules for certain types of operations with tokens and cryptocurrency.
After getting acquainted with definitions of cryptocurrency, its nature and main purpose it is important also to be familiar with cryptocurrencies in the context of money origin theory. It should be noted that emergence of electronic currency demonstrates one crucial phenomenon typical for modern economic development - gradual withdrawal of money from the jurisdiction of national states and consequently it leads to loss of control from central banks over the money supply. Modern technologies allow to organize cryptocurrency circulation without the involvement of state regulator which is among other things is centralized. Taking into account this fact, the attitude towards new monetary instruments should be built based on the potential danger to money sovereignty and the role of the central banks in the regulation of money circulation.
Some experts in the field of issues of electronic currencies believe that virtual currency can be represented as a digital expression of value which can be bought or sold in the electronic form and function as an exchange, counting unit or as a store of value. On the other hand, cryptocurrency can be interpreted as electronic money issued by non-bank issuers for electronic network settlements purposes as opposed to central and merchant banks. Hence, cryptocurrency can represent the next stage of electronic money evolution. Currently, all the definitions applicable to cryptocurrency are not finally established and are very contradictive in their nature.
If to follow the logic of the evolutionary theory of money which can be called a dominant one, cryptocurrency in all its diversity has to compete with traditional monetary tools. Furthermore, one of the two instruments have to win a competitive battle and should be accepted by the state as the only "market will" in a system of payment. In the modern world states shall appoint the most appropriate at the moment means of payment. It was in the past; it happens today and it will probably be the same in the nearest future. Consequently, even in the today society state still has a role of responsible authority regarding choosing new types of money. Central bank as the most important representative of the state` interests may use blockchain technology to create a domestic copy of "Bitcoin". For example, at the beginning of this year Chairman of the State Duma`s Committee on Financial Markets Anatoly Aksakov spoken out regarding the creation of the "Cryptoruble" which is going to be very possible and not abstract at all. The Russian analog of "Bitcoin" might complement a traditional ruble functioning in a special isolated space and used for the transactions on the financial markets. Anyway, the traditional version of the ruble and "crypto" one has to be separate from each other not to create various difficulties. In the era of digital economy and heterogeneity of the economic space perspectives of creation of multiple forms of money become more and more real in the course of time.
Cryptocurrencies are better for making transactions on the financial markets where the high level of trust and the guarantee of transactions` security are required. The regulator might create a centralized bank of data which can function for security purposes, however, the system itself has to be completely safe and work without any possible interruptions. If using blockchain technology participants will be able to use their own servers for the purposes of data storage and also check transactions, which safety is provided by encrypted cryptographic algorithms. Due to lack of facilitators transactions may be extremely cheap or even free in some cases.
Blockchain implementation.
The next crucial thing which is needed to be taken into consideration is the current fields of blockchain implementation, where it is really used. Nowadays it is quite clear that for the mass adoption of blockchain technology is a long way off. Present scopes of application for blockchain are mainly connected with darknet and payment on the illegal market, so-called "digital gold", international payments and the possibility of tokenizing simply everything. The initial mentioning of technology application unfortunately interconnected with the feature of cryptocurrency anonymity and its enhanced use in the darknet with the aim of buying and selling drugs, weapons, databases of hacking accounts and other illegal stuff. Dark web or darknet means a part of an international network which is available through special anonymous protocols. "Bitcoin" suited for such purposes perfectly. Beyond anonymity "Bitcoin" network was also global, reliable and in most of the cases not controlled by the state. Currently over a period of time some new cryptocurrencies such as "Monero" and "ZCash" with the emphasis on the anonymity appeared and somewhat have replaced Bitcoin in the darknet.
The second feature of blockchain and "Bitcoin" in particular is related to the term "digital gold". Such expression is used quite often directed at "Bitcoin". If do not take into account all the primitive reasons for making people being attracted by gold the economic characteristics are a difficulty of mining, irregular periods of supply and slow inflation. Stability is the main factor why gold is so valuable on the market. In the crypto-related society, there are also some so-called stable coins which are pegged to dollar at least from the words of their issuers such as "Tether" (USDT), "TrueUSD" (TUSD), "MakerDAO" (DAI) and others. These coins mainly try to solve the problems of big volatility in the cryptocurrency market however the origins of them raise some doubts.
Next field for blockchain usability is worldwide payments. This field is connected with the speed of international transactions comparing with bank services for international transfers. In modern reality, if a person needs to make a bank payment for a total amount of twenty thousand dollars it will cost approximately 50$ and transaction will be successful in the best case scenario over several days. Using "Ethereum" the price of such transaction will be approximately 50 cents and 10 minutes will be needed for its completion.
The last but not the least use of blockchain is tokenization. This definition means the process of relocation of illiquid assets to the shares in the blockchain. Such shares might be traded on the decentralized exchanges and in the decentralized market making them liquid. In the longer term, it could be a cheap alternative for the companies to make an IPO. This tokenization process is currently the least known area from all the above-mentioned ones, however, it probably has the most potential.
In the year of 2017, some of the famous businessmen considered that blockchain technology is possibly able to transform current ways of accounting and making quick transactions over the globe. Entrepreneur Mark Kuban called this new phenomenon as a "very valuable one" and stated that over the time blockchain will be the core of changes in the financial sphere. Another famous personal Richard Brenson said that blockchain will be an accelerant for the economic revolution in the developing countries. The head of "IBM" Ginni Rometti shared her thoughts regarding blockchain that it generates reliable transactions and that its effect on the whole world can be compared with the emergence of the internet several years earlier. By the way, it was more than empty words. "IBM" currently works in the blockchain-related sphere making various projects on its base real.
Speaking about the implementation of blockchain in Russia there are several companies which are stood out behind the other companies. These are mainly banks: "Sberbank", "Alfa Bank" and other banks. For instance, "Sberbank" and "FAS Russia" have already launched a pilot project "Digital Ecosystem" on the electronic document exchange with the help of blockchain technology. The main aim of the project is to explore the possibilities of distributed documents storing, that can potentially increase the speed, reliability and, quality of interaction while exchanging them. The main advantage should come from reducing costs as there are no data processing centers required and the requirements regarding equipment renting are brought down as well. In October 2017 "Sberbank" made the first blockchain transaction in Russia. The technological process developed by "Sberbank" should have to be basic. On the basis of this scenario, a new estimated functional will be created. The main feature is the time economy. All the operations are carried out almost in real-time. In contrast "Alfa Bank" altogether with Ltd "Sberbank Factoring" and the biggest Russian retailer "M. Video" have participated in the development of an open platform in the field of factoring of course based upon the blockchain. Both "Sberbank" and "Alfa Bank" have also conducted experiments on the use of blockchain technology in commercial transactions using letters of credit.
Today various projects in "fintech" sphere based on the blockchain technology show that with the help of Russian state it is possible not only to be competitive on the market but also even remain at the forefront of developments. However, to implement all of the things planned well-experienced in this sphere human resources are needed. Here the key point is connected with the close cooperation of the banks and all the "fintech" organization with the scientific community. The educational base is a key to success in the long term of blockchain and crypto-related community development.
Thus, the real application of blockchain technology is a difficult and labor-intensive process. Currently, this technology shows great importance for banking operations. There are dozens of advantages in blockchain such as: cost reducing, time-saving and security of transactions. The main aim at the present time is to move from the pilot testing to the real using and further mass adoption.
What spheres of modern life may become needless with blockchain implementation into it and is that possible in the nearest future?
- Money transfer systems
International money transfers are money sending from one country to another, and from one currency to another, it can be from the euro for instance to peso. There are some big players on this market not connected with blockchain at all: "Western Union", "Moneygram" and others. Mainly, the advantage of these organizations is that you may not have a bank account, however, you still will get your money. Because all such transfers are made manually and all the transactions are checked before to approve the price of such transaction is quite high, that is why it becomes worse and worse every time to use such services.
Blockchain, in that case, can seriously simplify all the processes by having just a smartphone application and access to the internet. Accept time in such case you will save your money as well because the prices are much cheaper to compare with classic money transfers.
If the world stat regarding all the money transfers which are not related to the banking sector is true - the total quantity of money transfers is 380$ billion of dollars per year. If to imagine that all these transfers will go to the blockchain than the industry of classic worldwide payments will be pushed aside for sure. Some of the changes in our life happen so quickly that you simply cannot realize this whole process. If something not only new but very good quality will be introduced to the market - people will simply forget about past things. For instance, the third cryptocurrency by market capitalization at the moment - "Ripple" allows to quickly transfer money from one place of the world to another and as fast as possible offering an opportunity to convert it to an appropriate currency. This is just one example of using blockchain for money transfer purposes.
- Broadcasting services
Another potential market for blockchain application is musical translations. Blockchain can allow music fans to pay for their favorite content directly to the music producers thereby simplifying the music artists` job.
- Cloud hosting
Cloud systems of data storage often times use centralized servers for users` data protection. However, if the leak occurs many of the clients of such companies become affected. There are several blockchain based projects which demonstrate opportunities for cloud hosting. For instance, project "Filecoin" based on the blockchain allows people to allocate on the computer
some amount of disk space for cloud hosting in return for tokens. This particular project managed to raise unbelievable 257$ millions of dollars making other big corporations biting their nails. However, despite the fact of acknowledging the achievements, big corporations such as "IBM", "Microsoft", "Amazon", "Facebook" have already started to explore and implement blockchain in their business structure.
Despite the fact that in each of the three spheres there are big players that have already launched projects on blockchain technology, however, this does not lead all the big corporations do that and even more, it is quite tricky to speak about the mass adoption of people interested in blockchain. Core technology itself has many drawbacks which are unsolved. Vital ones are connected with scalability and privacy issues. The blockchain that will produce the real and at the same time crucial changes to the industry perhaps is not invented yet.
However, the question of all the above-mentioned changes is not a matter of decades, but a matter of years. Some industries will be seriously affected and developed by the blockchain in the short term, people will just not know where it comes from.
ICOs.
The next crucial definition for our research paper is Initial Coin Offering or ICO. This instrument will have paramount importance in the paper. That is why it is vital to be aware of it. There are some well-written articles describing ICOs and our research team`s primary goal will be to highlight the major points out of them.
New high-tech projects including blockchain-based ones have recently been in a search for new ways to attract capital (Gompers, Lerner, 2004). ICO - is a mechanism of offering tokens to the crowd of investors. Investors usually send "Ethereum" or "Bitcoin" to the particular project address and instead get tokens of that project. ICO became a mechanism which allows the project to attract funds via cryptocurrencies with the speed and within the limits prescribed in the legislation of the country where ICO is held (Kaal, Dell`Erba, 2017).
"Ethereum" was the first large-scale project within the ICO campaign held in 2014, however, it was not the first ICO ever. Cryptocurrency "Mastercoin" based on the blockchain of "Bitcoin" was the first to hold ICO. After that many more others held their campaigns with different results. According to "CoinSchedule" in 2017, there were 366 ICOs and the funds raised accounted for approximately 6,2 billion dollars (CoinSchedule.com, 2019).
Next vital thing for investors is understanding the difference between tokens which can be either utility or security. The main difference is that utility tokens are used as access to services offered by the project and cannot be sold in the exchanges as security tokens do. Security tokens are functioning in general as investment instruments thereby maximally excluding the possibility of investors to be deceived. They can be like real shares and at the same time resemble a full range of traditional securities. (Kaal, Dell`Erba, 2017)
ICOs investments involve risk which can be reversible by understanding the knowledge of some technical things such as whitepaper and venture "Github" code quality. Moreover, understanding the blockchain technology itself will help to avoid fatal errors and do not take part in scams (Fisch, 2019).
"Bitcoin" and its price.
Another essential consideration is related to the basement of "Bitcoin" price. Many of authors while investigating the price formation of "Bitcoin" consider the first cryptocurrency as just a volatile fiction with a speculative nature (Lee, 2013) (Hanley, 2013) (Ciaian, Rajcaniova, Kancs, 2016). In general, such assumptions are based on the high price movements of "Bitcoin".
On the other side, there are scholars who alternatively think that the price nature of "Bitcoin" has its fundamental value. The first method is related to mining and claims that the amount of "Bitcoin" is limited to 21 million BTC according to the initial protocol (Nakamoto, 2008). However, a limited number of "Bitcoins" in circulation if to consider price from the beginning till now does not necessarily mean that the price of the cryptocurrency will always rise. Other opinions regarding price formation of BTC are mainly connected with media influence such as big news, conferences, etc. (Brandvold, Molnar, Vagstad, Valstad, 2015).
"Bitcoin", in spite of unabated disputes over its significance and value, is the most popular cryptocurrency. It is based on the blockchain technology, which was already mentioned earlier (Kristoufek, Vosvrda, 2013). The popularity of this cryptocurrency contributed to the overall spread of cryptocurrency around the world (Li, Wang, 2017). Society has not decided on its security yet, as well as the final financial classification of "Bitcoin". However, a discussion is already underway about its ability to compete with traditional investment objects, such as the dollar and the euro, non-ferrous metals (Dyhrberg, 2016). It is believed that Bitcoin can become one of the new tools for hedging against uncertainty and market risks (Bouri, 2017).
There is a mention in the scientific literature that with the help of long-term fundamental factors it is possible to calculate the potential price of "Bitcoin". It was argued that there are a number of potential indicators that serve to predict changes in its price (Wijk, 2013) (Kristoufek, 2015). These include both generally accepted ratios and indices, as well as, for example, prices for petroleum products and precious metals or fiat currency rates. The laws of traditional markets also could be applied to crypto markets. It is noted that an important role in long-term pricing is played by the demand and supply of "Bitcoin" (Bucholz, 2012). There are also numerous works on related topics in the context of calculating the long-term price of "Bitcoin". They clarify the relationship between the volume of transactions, stock exchange transactions, stock market indices and, etc., and the price of "Bitcoin" (Bouoiyour J, Selmi R, 2015).
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