Tools of Managerial Decision-Making while Investing in Blockchain Projects

Consideration of the specifics of cryptocurrency, analysis of the market, as well as the development of decision-making tools. Understanding the field based on statistical data, interviews with cryptocurrency market professionals and personal experience.

Рубрика Менеджмент и трудовые отношения
Вид дипломная работа
Язык английский
Дата добавления 04.12.2019
Размер файла 276,6 K

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While some people argue about the price formation of "Bitcoin", others do not want to do an in-depth analysis and just scrutinize and compare different tools such as "Bitcoin" hash rate and difficulty, cycling of "crypto" market and duration of it, search data with "Bitcoin" price. This is a sort of forecasting with some help of additional data.

Despite the fact that direct research has not been conducted, there is unconfirmed data that Google Trend statistics can be used to predict trading volumes, as well as explaining changes in the stock market (Preis T, Moat HS, Stanley HE, 2013). According to other studies, the use of Google search data is suitable for forecasting future earnings in 2-3 weeks. In December 2017 number of inquiries in Google Trends with the word "Bitcoin" was directly correlated with its price then (Joseph K, Wintoki MB, Zhang Z, 2011).

Alternative cryptocurrencies.

Because of the open source project code, "Bitcoin" became the starting point of many cryptocurrencies. Alternative currencies called altcoins appeared following it. For the most part, they are based on a similar blockchain technology, which has been modified to improve characteristics. There are a lot of examples including "Ethereum", "Ripple", "Dash" (Ciaian, 2017).

Developers are not always honest in their intentions, as shown by regular instances of fraud in the Initial Coin Offering process. Such projects are not always easy to distinguish from real ones, but they end in one scenario: developers disappear with the collected funds. "Edgecoin" leads to one of the famous examples of such situations. After the launch, its organizers changed the information about ICO to a message about hacking. In addition to cases of direct theft of cryptocurrency, there are altcoins, aimed at a different kind of fraud. Such cases include an infection of altcoin wallets for downloading personal data and "Bitcoin" keys.

There are many reasons why ICOs are considered as high-risk investments (SEC, 2017). First, tokens have no practical application in the initial stages, which makes them useless until the completion of the ICO (Russo, Kharif, 2017). Secondly, with the help of ICO companies collect funds most often in the initial stages (Kaal, Dell`Erba, 2017), which means the company can be quite young. This opens the way for scammers (Shifflett, Jones, 2018) who register companies for ICOs, collect money and do not fulfill given promises. Investors are attracted by the high profitability of such projects, and they are investing despite the high risks. This can be explained by the assumption of greater riskiness of ICO investors.

That is why it is so crucial to deal with different blockchain projects and distinguish a good one from scam. In further parts of the research, we will figure out everything regarding sorting.

To take above-mentioned data into consideration, the theoretical foundation did not discover specific steps to ensure investors against loss of funds. It lists possible risks but does not provide information about what you need to do in order to neutralize these risks, even if not fully then at least partially. For example, it is stated that there is a risk to invest in the scam project but does not disclose how to distinguish the scam from not scam. Articles dedicated to ICO focus more on statistical extraction, not the analysis of the provided statistics. Accordingly, a clear picture of what and how to do is missing.

Very little attention is paid to the success or failure of various blockchain projects. Accordingly, it is extremely difficult to make a conclusion about the prospects of technology in general, based only on scientific literature and without own analysis of specific ventures. Basically, the articles are descriptive in nature, the authors are very careful when writing certain points. Almost every scientific article has a lot of limitations and implications for the future.

Moreover, while writing this paper and making a theoretical foundation research team will face and already faced with constantly emerging new definitions and terms within the industry. Definitions like "STO" (Security token offering) and "IEO" (Initial exchange offering) are emerging and developed right away. There are not many scientific articles about them yet, however, research team could not just mention this fact. Cryptocurrency investors have to be up to date with regard to new rules required by the market.

Although the format of our research will also be exploratory, we are going to throw all our energy into a more in-depth analysis of this topic. We are interested in the fact that our study will not be just a sort of general recommendations.

Our sources of information will be not just scientific literature, but social networks ("Telegram", "Reddit"), which can be called as a real crypto community and information where is often much wider and more accessible. Also, our sources will include famous crypto influencers, who are familiar from the inside with this technology and are really well versed in it, and useful tracking resources, such as "ICO Drops", "Crypto Compare", which will help us with a deep analysis of projects, and which were unfairly ignored while the process of literature review.

Chapter 3. Statement of the research question

On the basis of the analyzed modern literature, it is possible to draw a conclusion about the novelty of the current study. In the process of familiarization with the literature, a variety of approaches has been identified, which are studied and tested in the practical part. According to them, the question of the research is: Which aspects should be considered while investing in blockchain projects? The following parts provide a detailed answer to this question, as well as all the necessary comments and developments received in the process. Over the centuries-old history of trading, investors have formed a huge number of investment strategies that are used in certain moments of trading. They are actively used in the traditional field, but can they be used when investing in blockchain projects? This division should be introduced because of a completely different specificity of trading on cryptocurrency exchanges. Fast and sharp fluctuations in the prices of crypto assets force investors to reconsider their behavior. Even well-established strategies in the "crypto" market can be ineffective or require updating over time. The primary difference of this work is a high degree of relevance because the data were obtained during practical work in a crypto company. The stated objective of the study also corresponds to the question, revealing it more specifically from the practical side. The objective is to study what are the main factors considering investments in blockchain startups and to make a guide that will help to avoid losses while manager works with blockchain. These factors include investment strategies, as well as all sorts of markers and metrics by which a person can make an assessment of the feasibility of investing in a particular project. As a rule, open information may be used to make a preliminary conclusion about the project. These may include capitalization, the project team, the essence of the project, deadlines and so on. In this study, the selection and evaluation of these factors are carried out in order to determine the most influential for subsequent investments. On the basis of such factors, we can create a guide- a cumulative instruction, according to which it is possible to estimate the investment attractiveness of a particular blockchain project. The use of this guide should reduce the likelihood of investment in a failed project, and therefore save the investor's funds. Of course, the use of this guide is advisory in nature and is unlikely to replace the complex system of evaluation of the largest investors, but its potential audience refers to private investors without huge funds for investment. This form of the practical guide is designed to help form a basic understanding of the key parameters for the evaluation of blockchain projects. Its use does not require special technical skills and prior scientific work. Understandable for perception language and logical scheme of drawing up are aimed at facilitating the understanding of the meaning of what is written. This guide allows answering the question of the study, as it contains information about what to do and what criteria to pay attention when investing in blockchain. Certain hypotheses were formulated for further research, including in-depth interviews and statistical analysis. Their verification is carried out on the basis of these research methods. These in-depth interviews are conducted with cryptocurrency investors and crypto enthusiasts who have different trading behavior. All of them have a unique experience in a particular direction. Our questions were developed for every participant individually. The procedure of the interview was formalized and will be described in further parts. Some respondents were comfortable to talk only in English, the other part only in Russian. Accordingly, the language of the interview varied depending on the capabilities of the respondent. We recorded the interviews in the native language of the respondents. To match the language of the work, the Russian texts have been translated. Emphasis was placed on the general meaning of the above, as well as key answers that confirmed or disproved specific hypotheses. According to the answers of the interviewed, as well as statistical analysis, we can check the following hypotheses, and decide whether to accept or reject them. The hypotheses are based on the studied literature and founded a gap in previous studies. The team members worked directly with the ICO, namely with their assessment, selection, analytics, investments. This experience helped to formulate the hypotheses. Many of us are involved in the crypto sphere financially; we also have a certain set of cryptocurrencies in the "crypto" wallet and regularly follow the rates and news. This information is provided to facilitate the reader`s understanding and help to formulate a certain opinion about the research team and its competence. Returning to hypotheses, this study checks the following hypotheses:

- Short-term strategies are more effective in crypto the industry rather than long-term ones.

One of the popular opinions is that cryptocurrencies are profitable in the short term. For example, immediately after the start of trading a new currency, many investors are trying to sell it immediately above the purchase price, without holding it for a long time. Despite this, there are strategies for long-term storage of certain currencies. It is assumed that these coins in the future can rapidly add to the price, which will gain profit that overlaps long wait and other costs. The study compares data on both sets of strategies to identify more effective ones.

- The presence of "High public bonus" is better for the profitability of the blockchain project.

Companies try to draw investors` attention using a lot of instruments. Usually, the cost of one conventional unit purchased on the very initial phase is low. This is due to increased risks for a number of reasons. First, there are a lot of scammers who can mislead people by inventing non-existent projects. After collecting funds, such projects are closed, and investors are left with nothing. In addition to direct scams, there are a number of reasons that can affect the project on the very initial phase. However, participants receive an increased benefit. One of them is a public bonus. This is a rate of additional tokens. Investors can receive it at the very beginning of tokens` sale. It means that an investor can receive more tokens for the same price. The bigger value of public bonus the more additional tokens a company gives. Respectively, it is logical to participate in projects which give extra tokens for free. This was not checked by previous works; our research team decided to include it into the analysis.

- Investments in projects which were already chosen by funds are profitable for ordinary investors.

Since the appearance of cryptocurrencies and crypto-related projects, their number has increased significantly every year. The peak came in 2017 when most cryptocurrencies were growing in price rapidly and inexplicably. At some point, the growth stopped and began an equally rapid decline. This was one of the factors formed the opinion that blockchain projects can make a profit if someone buys coins at an early stage, especially funds which can afford a large sum of money to invest. It is needed to closely monitor the rate and quickly sell at a favorable price. Ordinary investors remain uncertain about the long-term prospects of blockchain projects. At the same time looking at the funds` best choices may significantly simplify analyzing the process for amateur investors at least at the initial stages when there is no much experience in the industry.

- "Blockchains" and "Blockchain service" categories of ICOs (infrastructure ones) are more preferable for investments related to other categories.

Information noise around the word "blockchain" can play a significant role in the success of the ICO. There is an opinion that it is profitable to invest only in "blockchains" because they are considered more stable and efficient comparing to other categories. This logic looks quite adequate because the popularity of the project has a positive impact on the success of the project. The more people know about it, the more likely it is to attract investment and successfully implement it. To raise awareness and draw attention just might become a popular use of blockchain technology. In addition to blockchain categories of projects choosing to held ICO there are also other projects with different category also based on blockchain which are also given attention to ensure an integrated approach to the study of the issue.

- The degree of hype around a blockchain project positively affects its profitability for investors.

Major changes have occurred in the cryptocurrency market. We have seen various market cycles from general price and capitalization growth to a rapid decline and correction. All these periods relate to the mass popularity of blockchain technology and even its prestige or trend. The more rush around the project, the more people can hear about it. High-profile projects often attract the attention of investors. Accordingly, if the project is known and popular, it is more likely to be successful at the fundraising stage. It also reduces the likelihood of fraud from the company. The popularity of the project can affect its stability. But how "hype" indicator may affect the revenue of the investor? Verification of this hypothesis answers this question. This is possible because of the presence of "hype" metric in our database. This hypothesis implies that it is more profitable to invest in blockchain projects with high hype level.

- There are certain indicators of ICO which negatively influence on projects` profitability.

Every ICO team publish a lot of information about their project. This data is presented in open sources and special websites. Before this moment, we thought about the indicators and metrics that could help us to see potential earnings of investments. We assumed that there are key metrics that influence projects in a good way. Same time, this hypothesis implies that there are criteria that could mark less successful or even unprofitable projects. It also suggests that we can make an investment decision based on the definition of negative markers of the project. Accordingly, if such markers are present, is it worth investing in a particular project? This hypothesis is tested on the basis of statistical analysis. Using statistical methods, we will check the relationship between the main ICO criteria and its profitability.

To test these hypotheses, as well as the study of the research question, quantitative and qualitative methods are used. This distribution is due to the specifics of the selected topic. Most of the previous studies were qualitative and contained expert assessments and other data of a qualitative nature. In this study, the methods of qualitative research are also used, but this does not deprive it of its value. This approach is important in order to collect expert assessments at the current stage. The crypto-related sphere moves very quickly, the conditions of the game can change several times during the year, which means that past quality data can quickly lose its relevance. In order to track what investors think at the moment, as well as to obtain their expert forecasts for the future, using in-depth interviews in our study. Interviews were conducted offline, participants are anonymous, the results are presented in the practical part. In addition, quantitative methods are used in the work. This is quite a rare case for the crypto-related sphere because complete databases are not presented in the public domain, which greatly complicates the data collection process, and therefore the subsequent analysis. This research paper includes several statistical analyses as quantitative methods. The basis of the statistical analysis is the database of all ICO for 2018. Often, obtaining this data is a big problem for researchers, because of their lack of open access. As a rule, companies working in the crypto-related sphere and leading certain statistics do not go to give hard-earned achievements to strangers. This behavior is understandable, since such materials are of commercial value and it can significantly improve the position of competitors. It was significantly useful that one of our researchers participated in the compilation of such a database earlier. The research team got a summary table of all ICO, which took place in 2018. In addition to the names and terms, it includes a huge number of parameters that represent a great potential for research and analysis. A large summary table presents both descriptive parameters and financial indicators. It can be types, country of origin, the number of members of the development team, platform, and so on. Financial indicators such as total funds collected, percentage of profitability, and others are also included in the above table. The "R" program was chosen as a tool for statistical analysis due to the relative simplicity of the work, as well as the rich functionality of the program. It is one of the most popular and widely recognized among scientists' tools for data storage and Analytics. Details of the process of work in the "R" and research methods are described in the following parts of the research work. The work in this program was reduced to the analysis of individual ICO parameters contained in the general database of all ICOs for 2018. As a result of the analysis and further work with the data, our team constructed a linear regression model describing the set of all analyzed criteria. Some of the above hypotheses were tested using these statistical tools.

Chapter 4. Methodology

Methodology in the research paper aims to supplement the theoretical basis discussed previously and to describe and justify the selected methods. This section provides a detailed description of the research methods, a description of the hypotheses, their relationship with the theoretical part. We propose several hypotheses regarding our topic to accept them or to decline. The hypotheses were formulated based on the analyzed literature. At the moment, most studies on blockchain projects are informational in nature. They test the blockchain technology itself. As a result of the examination of the theoretical materials and scientific works, the study of certain aspects of ICO was not fully revealed. At the same time, many authors note the importance of certain aspects. For example, they write about the importance of the blockchain project` team. Meanwhile, mathematically this importance is not described. Besides, our interviews with experts in the blockchain-related industry which were aimed to supplement all the obtained information have also shown that despite all the importance they incur, such form of data gathering still have a qualitative nature and needed to be checked additionally to be statistically proven. In order to check whether there are mathematical relationships between these aspects and the investor's revenue, certain hypotheses were also made. Our stated hypotheses are:

a) Short-term strategies are more effective for ICO investments rather than long-term ones;

b) Investments in projects which were already chosen by funds are profitable for ordinary investors;

c) "Blockchains" and "Blockchain service" categories of ICOs (infrastructure ones) are more preferable for investments related to other categories;

d) The presence of "High public bonus" is better for the profitability of blockchain project;

e) The degree of hype around a blockchain project positively affects its profitability for investors;

f) There are certain indicators of ICO which negatively influence on projects` profitability.

Research is consists of several parts. Firstly, the work is related to the conceptual component of the new technology, namely "blockchain". According to Warren Buffet for investors, it is crucial to understand what they invest in. Then there was active testing of the stated hypotheses. For instance, the research team has attended major blockchain and cryptocurrency events such as Blockchain Life and Ian Balina meet-up. During the meet-up, two interviews were held. This helped the research team to form more precise picture regarding investors` opportunities and possible risks. Several research tools are used in the work: three in-depth interviews with representatives of blockchain related category of businesses. It was vital for the research team to understand what methods of project evaluation respondents use, what tactics they have on the return of investment (to keep or, for example, immediately withdraw). The block of questions has included the main characteristics of project evaluation which can exclude unpromising projects in terms of ROI (with the highest risk score) already in the initial stages of the analysis. After conducting the interview and identifying the overall results, we analyzed all the gathered data.

Speaking of methods, both quantitative and qualitative methods are used. The qualitative method is represented by an in-depth interview. This method helps to receive actual information from experts in this blockchain related industry. A characteristic feature is the small number of respondents. In-depth interview is an appropriate method to get information about the personal experience of the investors. It also provides comprehensive data to analyze because of the unlimited speech of a respondent. Unlimited means that there are no close questions, the respondent formulate the answer in a personal manner and then it should be interpreted carefully. The interpretation depends on the researcher`s mindset, so there is a risk of distortion. Our research team has worked on accurate formatting the questions to avoid such type of risk. This method has a lot of advantages. The main advantage is that in-depth interview provides more detailed information than other data collection methods. However, at the same time, it has a set of limitations. For example, the quality of the gathered data depends on various factors. These factors may be the mood of the respondent, his or her understanding of a question, skills of an interviewer, conditions of the interview`s process. Also, the sample of the interview is small, so it is impossible to generalize the results. Despite the limitations, the in-depth interview remains quite efficient and suitable method concerning our research. Cryptocurrency investors are valuable respondents because of the unique personal experience in this particular sphere. There are different stages of conducting in-depth interviews. Firstly, we developed a plan. The plan is to identify the investors to ask; to specify the topic and set the needed information. Further steps are connected with questions and reviewing process. It includes instructions for the interviewer. For example, what to say at the beginning of the interview and how to record answers; in general, how to behave and lead the interview. One of the main preparation steps is the development of questions for the interview. They were not the same for all respondents taking into account the specialization of the investor. It means that every participant has a personal set of competences. According that, the list of questions should fit these competences to better develop the necessary field. As a result of the in-depth interview, we receive records of the interview. Further, the research team work on raw data and transform it into a completed note of the interview. These notes are added in appendix 1.

Moreover, we have made a statistical analysis of blockchain projects over 2018. The main emphasis is placed on the characteristics of the blockchain projects` selection. Quantitative research methods were used primarily by statistical data analysis of different blockchain projects.

Statistical analysis consists of testing hypotheses using statistical methods, as well as building a linear regression model. To consider these methods in more details the original database of ICO projects was used. Metrics are collected for each project. The analysis of these metrics allows to check the stated hypotheses. This test is based on the analysis of the relationship between the selected independent variables and the dependent variable "Return test". This indicator means the percentage of profitability of the project after the opening of trading. Accordingly, it is calculated using the ratio of the average percentage increase in tokens` price for each of the first 5 trading days to the price of the token before the opening of trading. To check the dependencies between the dependent variable "Return test" and dichotomous variables (categorical variables which take only two values) we used the Mann-Whitney test. (Ruxton, 2006) For categorical variables with lots of values, a pairwise Kruskal-Wallis test. First, consider the Mann-Whitney test. This is an analogue of the t-test, its use is justified by the fact that our dependent variable is not normally distributed. There is a categorical variable, it takes only two values - yes and no. This test compares the average values of the "Return test" with a quantitative variable. As a result, this test shows whether the difference in the average values of the "Return test" between the two categories "yes" and "no" are statistically significant. Accordingly, only statistically significant data are presented in the results. For variables with more than two categories were used Kruskal-Wallis test. This test is similar to the previous one and compares each value with each other in pairs. If the value differs significantly, it is displayed. For the remaining data, Spearman rank correlation coefficient was considered. It was used to calculate correlations between "Return test" and quantitative variables. This algorithm assigns orders starting from 1 and more to the data. Similarly, the order is assigned to the dependent variable. Then, the algorithm looks for a correlation between these orders. Based on the analysis, we build a linear regression model. Its structure is demonstrated in table 1. The metric field specifies the explanatory variables that affect the dependent variable. The Estimate field indicates the degree of influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable. Accordingly, a positive value indicates a positive correlation, negative values a negative correlation. The algorithm calculates the Estimate value, which is the coefficients , in the equation

.

Y is the dependent variable, x is the independent variables, is the intersect. Other parameters correspond to the section name. Pr is the probability that the null hypothesis is true, and that the estimate is not significantly different from zero. If the p-value is less than 0.05, the estimate is significantly different from zero. Depending on the sample size, this threshold of 5 hundredths can be extended. If the sample is small, this threshold can be increased.

Table 1

Structure of the regression model

Metric

Estimate

Std. Error

t value

Pr(>|t|)

Comments

-

-

-

-

-

-

The statistical analyses were conducted on the basis of the ICO database. This database contains different metrics for all ICO 2018. The format of this database is a pivot table. For clarity, there is a transcript of the parameters that it describes. The initial code of "R" is in appendix 2. The structure of the database description is based on columns and their alphabetic headings. The description is from the beginning of the database on the left to the end metrics on the right. In general, the data is a continuous table. For clarity and to preserve the logic of the narrative, the columns below have been broken down to take into account the available space of the A4 page. In the original table over 2000 values were presented. This section lists the first 10 lines with examples of actual project data. As a part of the guide, our research group has developed an Excel table, which helps to represent all the needed data. All the parameters that, in our opinion, are worth mentioning are included.

Description of the data.

This table can later be used as a tool for analyzing statistics and determining trends in the ICO market and allows it to develop an algorithm based on the correlation between the values of its individual components for making current forecasts. The first column "A" in table 2 contains the project title. The second one "B" has the project website. Third "C" is the source where the project is found. This can be ICO-related website, blog, or the inside information for instance. "D" column which goes next is the ICO start date. This is the actual crowd sale start date. Usually, it is provided on the project's official website but sometimes happens that it is not. In these cases, it is necessary to find it on the world web. The easiest way is to ask for it in the project's official "Telegram" group, but in some cases, it takes too much time, so some big ICO aggregators provide this data. The information there cannot always be trusted since some projects change its ICO time limits due to various reasons. Next, fifth column "E" has the ICO end date in it. It is filled the same way, as the previous one with the difference that in it is the actual crowd sale end date.

Table 2

The beginning of the database

A

B

C

D

E

1

Project

Site

Source

ICO Start Date

ICO End Date

2

Decision Token

https://horizonstate.com/

ICODrops

16.10.17

30.10.17

3

Aeron

https://aeron.aero/

ICODrops

19.09.17

30.10.17

4

Enjin Coin

https://enjincoin.io/

ICODrops

03.10.17

31.10.17

5

ATLANT

https://atlant.io/ru/

ICODrops

07.09.17

31.10.17

6

CarTaxi Token

https://cartaxi.io/

ICODrops

29.9.17

01.11.17

7

Dentacoin

https://www.dentacoin.com/

ICODrops

01.10.17

01.11.17

8

Dragonchain

https://dragonchain.com/

ICODrops

02.10.17

02.11.17

9

QASH

https://liquid.plus/

ICODrops

06.11.17

09.11.17

10

Grid+

https://gridplus.io/

ICODrops

30.10.17

11.11.17

The column "F" in table 3 is the Token sale price $. This is the cost of the token during the ICO without taking into account the public bonus. This column is filled only if the project states the price of token pegged to only the price of USD. If the token price is also stated in "Ethereum", this column is not necessary to fill in. Next one "G" is the Token sale price in ETH. This is an important column since it contains a part of the formula. If it is not stated by a project administration, it must be calculated using the average exchange rate during the period of ICO or, if it is the uncompleted ICO, the average ETH exchange rate during last two weeks. The ETH exchange rate is taken from Coinmarketcap.com and is saved to another excel tab and accepted as an average of open and close prices. (Coinmarketcap.com, 2019) The "H" column - Best Token Sale Price, ETH. It uses excel formula =IF(Gx="";"";Gx*(1/(1+Ix))), where "x" is for the line number, and "G" and "I" fit the columns to the left and right of it. It represents the best price the investor can have for one token, keeping in mind different prices or bonuses on every stage of ICO. If the first column in the table is located in sector "A", then in the column "I" there ought to be column called Max public bonus, %. That is the maximum size of the public bonus offered during the crowd sale (Pre-ICO & ICO). It often depends on the time of investment in the project, early investors get the most favorable conditions. Most of the projects provide bonuses on different stages of ICO, meaning that if you buy tokens during the first week of ICO, you can get 30% (or anoother number) extra tokens for free. Usually, the information about it is provided on the project's official website, in the project's whitepaper. Some projects, which have the "Telegram" channel, also usually announce it there. If the information is not stated there, it can be asked about in the project official "Telegram" chat. Only the information by the chat admins should be trusted. The maximal publicly available bonus means that it is available for any investor. Some projects make a private pre-sale for a limited circle of investors, like institutional ones. Some projects do not provide bonus tokens but make a discount on the tokens on different ICO stages. In this case, the max bonus should be calculated using =IF(Jx="";"";1/(1-Jx)-1) formula, where "J" is for the next column, and "x" is for the line number. Next goes the "J" column. This is the "Max public Discount, %" column. It is important to fill only if the project staff did not mention any bonuses but stated the discount. It is needed to calculate the previous column in such cases.

Table 3

Information about token price

A

F

G

H

I

J

1

Project

Token Sale Price, $

Token Sale Price, ETH

Best Token Sale Price, ETH

Max public bonus, %

Max public Discount, %

2

Decision Token

-

0,0001667

0,000133333

25,00%

-

3

Aeron

0,500

0,0016644

0,001280306

30,00%

-

4

Enjin Coin

-

0,0003333

0,000097000

243,64%

-

5

ATLANT

-

0,0023529

0,000990099

137,65%

-

6

CarTaxi Token

-

0,0004435

0,000243843

81,86%

-

7

Dentacoin

-

0,0000004

0,000000125

220,00%

-

8

Dragonchain

-

0,0001990

0,000139319

42,86%

30,00%

9

QASH

-

0,0008000

0,000700000

14,29%

12,50%

10

Grid+

-

0,0037000

0,002557045

44,70%

30,89%

The information about the presence of a prototype is stated in the "K" column in table 4. It is filled with "yes" or "no". It means that if there is a publicly available functioning prototype of the project's product or not. Next column is "L" - "Hard Cap, $". The column describes the amount of money, stated by the project as its target. It is necessary to fill this column only if a project stated its hard cap only in USD. Then goes the column "M": "Hard Cap", ETH". If the "Hard Cap" is stated only in USD - it must be calculated using the average exchange rate during the period of ICO or, if it is the uncompleted ICO, the average ETH exchange rate during last two weeks. In the "N" column stays the "Soft Cap". It is the minimal amount the project must raise. The project either states it or not. This should be filled as "yes" or "no". The "O" column is for a total number of tokens. The total number of tokens emitted by the project. Can be found in the project's "whitepaper". Column "P" contains the information about "Tokens for open market, %". This is the number of project tokens, available for public purchase. Almost every project saves some part of tokens for the team members, miners and others. Info can be found either in "whitepaper" or "Telegram" channel. Column "P" contains "Public Pre-ICO". It is about is there a public crowd sale in two stages: "Pre-ICO" and "ICO". Then stays column "Q" - "Private-sale". That is a round for large institutional investors with a high minimum volume of required investments.

Table 4

Information about ICO

0

A

K

L

M

N

O

P

Q

1

Project

Prototype

Hard Cap, $

Hard Cap, ETH

Soft Cap

Total number of tokens

Tokens for open market, %

Public Pre-ICO

2

Decision Token

Yes

-

200 000

No

1 000 000 000

60,0%

No

3

Aeron

No

30 000 000

99 864

No

100 000 000

60,0%

Yes

4

Enjin Coin

Yes

25 000 000

81 548

No

1 000 000 000

80,0%

Yes

5

ATLANT

Yes

-

225 403

Yes

150 000 000

72,5%

Yes

6

CarTaxi Token

Yes

-

219 234

No

750 000 000

66,0%

Yes

7

Dentacoin

Yes

-

106 000

Yes

##############

4,0%

Yes

8

Dragonchain

Yes

14 500 000

47 452

No

433 494 437

55,0%

No

9

QASH

Yes

-

350 000

Yes

1 000 000 000

50,0%

No

10

Grid+

Yes

-

289 911

No

300 000 000

30,0%

No

"R" column in table 5 implies "Main industry" meaning category which describes the project the best. It should be chosen from the following "Trading & Investing", "Lending", "Banking", "Insurance", "Fundraising", "Currency", "Financial data & AI", "Blockchain Service", "Smart Contract", "Data Storage", "Data Analytics", "Identity & Reputation", "Artificial Intelligence", "IoT", "Security", "Mining", "Gaming & VR", "Gambling & Betting", "Art & Music", "Events & Ticketing", "Travel & Tourism", "Adult", "Commerce & Advertising", "Payments & Merchants", "Marketplace", "Content Management", "Supply & Logistics", "Real Estate", "Social Network", "Mobile", "Communications", "Real Assets", "Real Business", "Energy & Utilities", "Transport", "Healthcare", "Education industries". "S" is the "Second industry" followed by the "Type" column "T" which may be for instance "Blockchain", "Platform" or "App". The detailed description of "Types" will be introduced in further parts of the research. After the "Type" column there is column "U" - "Hype score". The indicator is taken from the site: http://icorating.com/ (ICOrating.com, 2019). Then in the column "V" stays "Risk score". This indicator is also taken from the site: http://icorating.com/ (ICOrating.com, 2019). "W" column is the "Country with most traffic". This is the country from which the most traffic goes to the project site. Information is available on the website: https://www.similarweb.com/ (Similarweb.com, 2019). "X" is a "Country of origin". This indicator shows where the main team leads of the project came from. The following is "Number of team members" which shows the maximum number of people specified either on a website or in a whitepaper, excluding the advisors.

Table 5

Types and industries

A

R

S

T

U

V

W

X

Y

1

Project

Main industry

Second industry

Type

Hype score

Risk score

Country with most traffic

Сountry of origin

Number of Team Members

2

Decision Token

Identity & Reputation

-

Platform

LOW

MEDIUM

USA

Australia

5

3

Aeron

Identity & Reputation

-

App

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

USA

Russia

10

4

Enjin Coin

Gaming & VR

Currency

Platform

VERY HIGH

MEDIUM

USA

International

8

5

ATLANT

Real Estate

Marketplace

App

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

USA

Russia

9

6

CarTaxi Token

Transport

-

App

HIGH

MEDIUM

USA

Russia

11

7

Dentacoin

Healthcare

-

App

HIGH

MEDIUM

USA

Bulgaria

15

8

Dragonchain

Blockchain Service

-

Platform

LOW

MEDIUM

USA

USA

10

9

QASH

Trading & Investing

-

App

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

Others

Asia

9

10

Grid+

Energy & Utilities

-

App

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

USA

USA

7

Next section is the "Post-ICO" information in table 6. "Z" column is regarding the "Unsold Tokens". What happens to the unsold tokens? They can be burnt, "not minted", returned to the company, "airdropped", or even in rare cases they simply do not exist. If the information is not stated, it should be found or asked in the project's "Telegram". "AA" is "Token issue/distribution" meaning how soon will the purchased tokens be transferable. Do the buyers have to proceed "Whitelisting" or "Know Your Customer" procedure to participate in the ICO is about "AB" column. "Platform" in "AC" is on which platform the token is based. Usually, it is "Ethereum" based "Erc-20" token but can be native as well. "AD" column is "Bonus lockup" - the period when the bonus tokens cannot be sold on the secondary markets. "AE" is the "Return test". This column will be our dependent variable in the further statistical analysis which has paramount importance for the results of the research. "Return Test" means gathered data about returns on the investment for ended ICOs. "AF" column characterizes "All-star funds" which shows how many statistically most successful funds have invested in a certain project.

Table 6

The post-ICO information

A

Z

AA

AB

AC

AD

AE

AF

1

Project

Unsold Tokens

Token Issue / Distribution

Whitelist/KYC

Platform

Bonus lockup

Return test

All-Star Fund

2

Decision Token

Not minted

2 weeks

Whitelist

Ethereum

No

579%

2

3

Aeron

Burn

1 week

None

Ethereum

No

-14%

0

4

Enjin Coin

Return to company

Right after ICO

None

Ethereum

No

-34%

0

5

ATLANT

Burn

Right after ICO

None

Ethereum

No

-3%

0

6

CarTaxi Token

Burn

1 week

None

Ethereum

No

-1%

0

7

Dentacoin

Return to company

Right after ICO

None

Ethereum

No

231%

0

8

Dragonchain

Not exist

After audit

None

Ethereum

No

318%

1

9

QASH

Return to company

3 weeks

KYC

Native

No

94%

0

10

Grid+

Return to company

Right after ICO

None

Ethereum

No

-21%

0

The research team conducted an analysis based on the above database. "R" software was used for the analysis. Software acting as a database repository - Microsoft Office Excel 2016. The database was collected with the direct participation of members of the research team. The information was obtained from both open sources and internal business processes of the company. Due to the rich practical experience of working in a "crypto" investment company, data was obtained accurately. The database was compiled continuously in accordance with the appearance of the described information about the ICO. Earlier periods are described by the company's employees. Later periods, including most of 2018, were described by members of the research team, together with employees of the "crypto" investment company. The next Chapter describes the practical part of the work. The methods in the current Chapter are used in practice to test the given hypotheses. A detailed description of the research process, as well as analysis of the results and interpretation of the data, are also presented in the following part. To simplify the perception of the practical part is structurally divided into two parts. The first part is devoted to the research process and an explanation of the data. The second part contains an assessment of the results obtained by the research team.

Apart from using the special tools of statistical analysis, we decided to find the linear correlations between concrete parameters of the table, mentioned above. All these correlations do not need any special tools and are made in Microsoft Excel. The "Return test" column data for each project, unlike the previous, appeared after the ICO closing. One of the correlations needed to be found is the correlation between the project country of origin, average return and the number of projects with a positive return. This allowed the research team to decide, teams from which country are most likely to start a successful project.

To analyze market tendencies, statistics for the year were also provided, divided by months. The metrics which contain the needed data are:

- Number of ICO;

- Average hard cap, $MM;

- Average raised, $MM;

- Average return;

- Average positive return;

- Average negative return.

This allows us to understand the market dynamics and correlate it to the events happening in the crypto economy.

Apart from that, we expect to provide the relationship between the existence of working prototype of a project before it enters the ICO and further profit. To make it, the data on the number of profitable and non-profitable projects of 2018 with prototypes and without is to be provided.

We are also supposed to find the most profitable project type (app, blockchain or platform) and industry (Trading & Investing, Lending, Banking etc.). "Bonus" and "Hard Cap" size correlation with the average return will be separately analyzed, ranged by size into four quartiles, also giving attention to the outliers. Furthermore, we will show the discovered tendencies between the presence of "Soft Cap" and "Bonus lockup" and the average return of the investments.

Chapter 5. Results

Our practical part of the research has contained several complementary sections which were divided into phases. The first phase was dedicated to the analysis of statistics regarding all the emerging blockchain projects without any exceptions. In terms of time horizons for the statistical segregation, the year of 2018 was taken into account. Obtained datasets were divided into variables where profitability or "Return test" variable was a dependent one. To check the possible correlation between all the independent variables and the profitability of blockchain projects the mathematical-statistical sample check was made in the "R" software with the help of self-titled programming language. At the same time with the identifying possible correlations, all the gathered data was structured and presented in the form of tables and pie charts not only for visibility but also for easier identifying of certain patterns in the blockchain industry.

Apart from above-mentioned things, in-depth interviews with genuine crypto influencers and promoters were held to supplement received information. Vast experience of respondents made possible to fully understand how mechanisms in cryptocurrency investing work and moreover has resulted in the final guide for all the interested in investing into blockchain people. As previously mentioned, the practical experience of the research group members altogether with deep literature review analysis helped to develop a final guide and approve or dismiss hypothesis formulated in the previous parts of the research. First of all, by the research team, the work on the narrowing of our database has been done to check the stated hypothesis.

Statistical analysis.

The first metric to check was a type of blockchain project. The results are presented in figure 1 and figure 2. With the help of the practical experience while working in a "crypto" investment company our research team tentatively expected that the main idea of the project and its type mean a lot for the final profitability.

Figure 1. % of all ICOs

Figure 2. Average return (x)

Gathered data proved initial assumption regarding types of blockchain projects. Statistics show that investments into infrastructure projects focused on providing new blockchains or blockchain tools which are aimed to be better than current ones such as "Bitcoin" and "Ethereum" seem much more profitable for investors than other types such as "Platform" or "App" with a very low percentage. From the table it can be claimed that investments into these types are not profitable at all comparing with "Blockchain" type with the average return score of more than 40% after the token listing on the exchanges.

The following metric for the examination was assigned to the existence of the prototype before the initial coin offering starts. Statistics in figure 3 show that prototype existence is crucial for any project and equates that the future product will not be a scam one. Prototype existence definitely gives more credit to the launching project. By the way the above-mentioned graph also indicates that most of the ICO projects are unprofitable after the listing further substantiating the importance of deep analysis of all the possible metrics before investing.

Figure 3. Prototype existence

The next metric is dedicated to bonuses and lockup periods for investors. The main aim of blockchain projects` founders is always to attract as many people to their token sale as possible. Different bonuses and the price difference between a private sale and public sale is coming from here. Ideal for crowd sale investors is than there are absolutely no preferences of private investors in front of public ones. However, if the team of a particular project decides to attract more buyers via private sale then for ordinary investors the lockup period of these bonus tokens is important. Moreover, statistics in figure 4 show that the overall number of ICO with Bonus lockup was much higher than without bonus lockup. Probably the best projects in terms of profitability were in the range of 187, however there is no data regarding that poi...


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