Component of global manifestations of the crisis

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Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas

Component of global manifestations of the crisis

Vasyl Ostapiak Department of Public Administration and Management

Description and reflection on the cyclical nature of existence accompanies philosophical thought since its inception. Cyclicality is a constant that is shrouded in mystery and at the same time pragmatism. The progressive development of self-organized systems, political system, system of international relations, economics and the whole spectrum of humanities and natural sciences can be described, taking into account various concepts of cyclicity. Cyclicality, in contrast to linearity, is not without progression. Although in its beginning linearity presupposes a movement from the lesser to the greater and vice versa, cyclicity is more natural and makes it possible to compare the processes that accompany the development of civilization. For example, analyzing changes in the dominance of superpowers in the international system, J. Ariggy, J. Vasquez, J. Gaddis, R. Gilpin, P. Kennedy, J. Modelsky and K. Thompson tried to determine the cyclicality and patterns of evolution of the system of international relations.

The dilemma of perception of social, global development in the context of linearity or cyclicity is quite interesting, but we will focus on the applied aspect of cyclicity. After all, such an approach will help us to perceive the development and processes of globalization in a broader context. However, returning to the more applied aspect of understanding cyclicality, we can understand this process as a process of creation and a process of transformation. Creation is inextricably linked with the creation of the state, "state-building" is identified with state-building - "state building" (English), "staatsbildung", and defined as a complex long-term process aimed at state formation, which includes cultural, political, mythological, religious and other factors. Accordingly, the cyclical nature, which presupposes the passage of certain stages of the formation of existence at its core, presupposes the existence of such a somewhat destructive phenomenon as the formation of crises. The crisis in the context of cyclical life plays a driving role.

Key words: crisis, conflict, long wave theory, system of international relations, globalization.

СКЛАДНИК ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ПРОЯВІВ КРИЗИ

Василь Остап'як

Івано-Франківський національний технічний університет нафти і газу, кафедра публічного управління та адміністрування

Опис та роздуми над циклічністю буття супроводжують філософську думку з моменту її становлення. Циклічність - константа, котра оповита таємничістю і водночас прагматичністю. Поступальний розвиток самоорганізованих систем, політичного устрою, системи міжнародних відносин, економіки та всього спектру гуманітарних, природничих наук можна описувати, враховуючи різноманітні концепції циклічності. Циклічність, на відміну від лінійності, не позбавлена прогресії. Хоча у своєму началі лінійність і передбачає рух від меншого до більшого і навпаки, проте циклічність більш природна та дає змогу порівнювати процеси, що супроводжують цивілізаційний розвиток. Наприклад, аналізуючи зміни домінування наддержав у міжнародній системі, Дж. Аріггі, Дж. Васкез, Дж. Ґаддіс, Р. Ґилпін, П. Кеннеді, Дж. Модельскі та К. Томпсон здійснювали спроби визначити циклічність та закономірності еволюції системи міжнародних відносин.

Дилема сприйняття суспільного, глобального розвитку в контексті лінійності чи циклічності доволі цікава, та ми концентруватимемо увагу саме на прикладному аспекті циклічності. Адже такий підхід допоможе нам сприймати розвиток та процеси глобалізації в більш широкому контексті. Однак, повертаючись до більш прикладного аспекту розуміння циклічності, ми можемо осягнути цей процес як процес творення і процес трансформування. Творення нерозривно пов'язане із творенням держави, «державотворення» ототожнюють із будівництвом держави - “state building” (англ.), “staatsbildung - та визначають як комплексний довготривалий процес, спрямований на утворення держави, який включає культурні, політичні, міфологічні, релігійні та інші чинники. Відповідно циклічність, котра передбачає проходження певних етапів становлення існування в своїй основі, передбачає існування такого до певної міри деструктивного явища, як формування криз. Криза в контексті циклічного буття відіграє рушійну роль.

Ключові слова: криза, конфлікт, теорія довгих хвиль, система міжнародних відносин, глобалізація.

Cycles. Description and reflection on the cyclical nature of existence accompanies philosophical thought since its inception. Cyclicality is a constant that is shrouded in mystery and at the same time pragmatism. The progressive development of self-organized systems, political system, system of international relations, economics and the whole spectrum of humanities and natural sciences can be described, taking into account various concepts of cyclicity.

Cyclicality, in contrast to linearity, is not without progression. Although in its beginning linearity presupposes a movement from the lesser to the greater and vice versa, cyclicity is more natural and makes it possible to compare the processes that accompany the development of civilization. For example, analyzing changes in the dominance of superpowers in the international system, J. Ariggy, J. Vasquez, J. Gaddis, R. Gilpin, P. Kennedy, J. Modelsky and K. Thompson tried to determine the cyclicality and patterns of evolution of the system of international relations. cyclicality thompson evolution

The dilemma of perception of social, global development in the context of linearity or cyclicity is quite interesting, but we will focus on the applied aspect of cyclicity. After all, such an approach will help us to perceive the development and processes of globalization in a broader context. I. Wallerstein states the fact that due to the expansion of the university system "the boundaries between disciplines are blurred" [1]. Such layering, splitting and mutual absorption of the terms of cyclicity and linearity directs us to comprehend this term as universal, as one that is able to move and change society and the system of international relations.

However, returning to the more applied aspect of understanding cyclicality, we can understand this process as a process of creation and a process of transformation. Creation is inextricably linked with the creation of the state, "state-building" is identified with statebuilding - "state building" (English), "staatsbildung", and defined as a complex long-term process aimed at state formation, which includes cultural, political, mythological, religious and other factors. The term "state building" was introduced into scientific usage in 1975 by the American sociologist Charles Tilly, studying the history of Western Europe. Ch. Tilly assumed that with the invention of the gunpowder of war in Europe, began to require huge costs, and therefore could protect themselves only large nations united by strong powers [2]. Accordingly, the cyclical nature, which presupposes the passage of certain stages of the formation of existence at its core, presupposes the existence of such a somewhat destructive phenomenon as the formation of crises. The crisis in the context of cyclical life plays a driving role.

The causes of crises can be natural, reflecting the phenomena of climate, earthquakes, floods and other cataclysms of natural origin. And can have a man-made imprint associated with human activities. The causes of the crisis can be external or internal. The first are related to trends and strategies of macroeconomic development or even the development of the world economy, competition, the political situation in the country. The second - with a risky marketing strategy, internal conflicts, shortcomings in the organization of production, management imperfections, innovation and investment policy [3]. The crisis is changing, modernizing and destroying. The crisis is able to restore balance, absorb and destroy the old and obsolete, create new and revive the lost in a new form. That is why the cycle is the basis of development, and the crisis is an instrument of change (in the cyclical and linear perception of reality).

Analyzing the cycles by their origin, nature and structure, we think it is most appropriate to consider this process, which most dynamically affects the transformation of the external environment of any system. Therefore, we pay attention in this study to those cycles that are described in the theory of economics. Such cyclicality is best considered through its sufficient research and in-depth analysis of the impact of these cycles on the economic, monetary component of any society.

Cycles of Joseph Kitchin. They are interesting in that it usually takes about 40 months. [4] What is the basis for the formation of the Kitchin Cycle? Researcher J. Kitchin in 1920 investigated and found that the cyclicality is due to the violation of the movement of information in the enterprise. That is, the primary basis for the violation of the stable development of the enterprise is the violation of the circulation of information. We see that in this context, information is a resource that directly affects the activities of the enterprise. Thus, we can consider any organized or self-organized system dependent on information, where incorrect flows of this information form a cycle. In this context, the cycle is formed due to information that circulates incorrectly or is not transmitted at all in the structure of the system. The wrong trajectory of information stimulates the development of a crisis, which, accordingly, can lead to the collapse of the system or enterprise and lead to the destruction of the enterprise.

Considering the transfer of information in the context of microprocesses, we can assume that incorrect, insufficient or distorted flow of information flows leads not only to the destruction of the enterprise, but also to the destruction of a number of enterprises, organizations, possibly countries and other associations, including in international relations. We can conclude that the incorrect circulation of information flows can not only change the structure of enterprises or other associations, such a false circulation of information affects the level of crisis and destroys the structure of all systems.

From the defective redistribution of information flows, in general, may change and at worst destroy the structure of government, including state and interstate in the long run.

Cycles of Kleman Zhuglyar. Medium-term cycles, which in their oscillating motion take a period of 7 to 11 years. They have some similarities with Kitchin cycles and a longer period. In contrast to Kitchin's cycles, Zhuglyar's cycles are longer due to delays in management decisions, which is reflected in the formation of investment flows. That is, in short, we can conclude that cyclicality according to Zhuglyar is also interrelated with the imperfection of information flows.

Thus, the researcher K. Zhuglyar not only analyzed certain processes of cyclical development of society, but also divided these cycles into phases. Accordingly, the 4 main phases, which consist of cyclic processes lasting from 7 to 11 years, have certain patterns. We understand that such phases can be controlled and, if we predict the phases of Zhuglyar cycles, they can be controlled. That is, to manage, providing information flows that can directly reduce the destructive effects that cycles have on the economy, and hence on politics.

Researcher K. Zhuglyar noted that cyclic processes are divided into several phases, considering these phases it should be noted:

- first, the phase of recovery, characterized by acceleration, can be considered as a phase that triggers the processes of exchange and receipt of information;

- secondly, the phase of recovery, which we can characterize as one that provides an increase in the information that is operated during the cycle;

- thirdly, the recession phase, which shows which chrysogenic factors will have a destructive effect on the completion of the cycle;

- fourth, the phase of depression, in which all identified chrysogenic factors can be alleviated and mitigated by the crisis that affects the completion of the cycle.

Summing up, it should be noted that such forms of cyclicity can be modeled and managed, if it is correct to redistribute the work with information flows.

Cycles of Simon Kuznets. A rather original description of cycles was offered by S. Kuznets, who linked the cyclical ups and downs of economic development with the demographic movement. Of course, these types of cycles lasting from 15 to 25 years are pragmatic and based on demographic, technological, infrastructural capital flows. However, we understand that no movement in self-organized systems is possible without the provision and flow of information. Information flows usually provide movement, including financial movement, which affects the political component of society.

Although we have briefly considered the cycles (flows) of flows and transformations associated with the infrastructure component described by Simon Kuznets, we note that the information component is present in this dimension of cyclical transformations. Thus, cyclicality is interrelated with information flows in the short and medium term, although we can say the same about other manifestations of cyclicality. After all, the information component affects the flow of information. It is extremely important in modern society, especially in the modern world, in the digital age of advanced communications, without which we cannot imagine modern life today.

Information is not only an important resource, but also a tool for overcoming crises and conflicts, information can prevent destructive or negative manifestations of transformational transformations of modern societies under conditions of balanced and effective management. In the system of international relations, information and control over the information infrastructure can ensure success in negotiations, conflict resolution and sustainable development. Thus, the information space is strategically important not only in the context of security, but also in the context of gradual integration and globalization. Accordingly, globalization is possible taking into account the information component.

Kondratev's cycles. The cycles of 45 to 55 days studied by the Russian researcher Nikolai Kondratev quite clearly describe not only the market situation. This approach to the perception of cyclicality has helped to predict the destructive effects of overproduction in many countries. Kondratev's cycles clearly signal the onset of major crises, which affect social development and lead to the onset of rather threatening financial crises.

It should be noted that M. Kondratev's cycles also have 4 stages of development, which affect the dynamics of the cycle itself. We can consider the cycles proposed by Kondratev in the context of technological development of society and the impact of technology on this process:

- first, the formation of the cycle takes into account and the introduction of modern technologies in production. Technologies act as a catalyst and help the cycle (waves) to gain dynamism;

- secondly, the level of growth and dynamics of the cycle increases due to transformations in society, due to wars or conflicts, revolutions, etc .;

- on - the third, at decline of development, at change of intensity the society absorbs depression (economic, political, cultural, etc.);

- fourth, there is a general decline, society or global space is in a state of recession or regression.

It is clear that such a perception, such a combination and description of the cyclical development of society (global society) was proposed by M. Kondratev and later described by Josef Schumpeter. Based on the cycles of K. Zhuglyar.

Researcher A. Toynb noted that the history of mankind is divided into cycles associated with periods of long wars. The phases of the cycles are: 1) prelude; 2) the Great War; 3) pause; 4) epilogue; 5) universal lasting peace. The cycle of 115-120 years covers the life of four generations, which is enough to "erase" the experience of the "great war" in the minds of people. That is, the determining factor in the duration of cycles and changes in international relations is the human consciousness associated with the behavior of states [5].

We, in turn, can only assume that with a high probability of occurrence and formation of cycles is influenced by the flow and provision of managers with reliable information. After all, awareness, the level of communication influences the adoption of management strategies, which are fundamental in the formation of cycles and in overcoming the crisis. Accordingly, the level of quality, transmission and reliability of information affects all self-organized systems, including in the system of international relations.

Bibliography

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2. Нестерович В. Поняття «державотворення в Україні» та його сутнісні риси. Право і суспільство. 2020. № 1. с. 77.

3. Василенко В.О. Антикризове управління підприємством : навч. посіб. для студ. вищ. навч. закл. Центр навч. л-ри, 2005. - 208 c. - URL: http://eclib.atwebpages.com/ (дата звернення: 15.09.2021)

4. Kitchin, J. Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors (англ.) // Review of Economics and Statistics (англ.)русск. : journal. - The MIT Press, 1923. - Vol. 5, no. 1. - P. 10-16. doi:10.2307/1927031

5. Мальський М.З., Мацях М.М., Теорія міжнародних відносин / Маркіян Зіновійович Мальський, Михайло Миколайович Мацях // Підручник: 2-е вид., перероблене і доп. - К.: Кобза, 2003. - 528 с., с. 221.

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