Process-oriented interactions of democracy in Ukraine
Study of political regimes, understanding of democratization processes. The difference between the positive inevitability of liberal democracy in transitology and the positive variety of forms of relations. Peculiarities of the hybrid political regime.
Рубрика | Политология |
Вид | статья |
Язык | английский |
Дата добавления | 02.10.2022 |
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Whereas a major number of Ukrainians, especially those living in Central and South-Eastern Ukraine, had more or less pro-Russian attitudes or were indifferent to geopolitics by 2014, population's position towards the big neighbour became rather negative after the events of 2014. This led both to a further decline in the influence of pro-Russian political parties and ideas, especially in western Ukraine, and to a widespread perception of Russia as a «threatening other.»
Nevertheless, as regards decision-making bodies, rather than society, there are still a large number of players to be found whose interests are still linked to the country's northern neighbour, thus, re-imposing to the issue of maneuvering among concerned parties.
The study shows that the West support as such serves like a catalyst, guarantor, and `observer' of democratization processes. The role of the EU is fundamental, as the crisis in Ukraine began with the EU's failure to convince Yanukovych to sign an association agreement. By the way, Lithuania was holding the presidency if the EU Council at that time. There are arguments as to whether the fate of Ukraine's orientation towards the EU is becoming similar to the fate of same orientation of Turkey?
The EU's association criteria and, in the case of European integration -- the Copenhagen criteria, clearly set targets that both create a seemingly positive environment for democratization and hamper democratization. The general situation, however, remains in the state of hybrid governance. The orientation towards the West, the strong North Atlanticist (USA, Turkey) support is one of the major determinants for the institutionalisation of democracy in Ukraine. The EU's and IMF's financial support (not necessarily political support) in exchange for reforms is forcing the government to make changes, since any `overtures' with the aggressor country will result in the loss of voters. This can be observed from the public opinion polls mentioned above, exit polls, and the final elections at various levels.
Ukraine: the case of which hybrid political regime? (just temporary -- transitional or long-term pro-democratic?) The EIU classified the political regime in Ukraine of 2019 as hybrid, not even «flawed democracy.» At the same time, according to the Freedom House Index (FHI), Ukraine consistently remains a partly free country. Together, on the basis of FHI data (Figure 1), Ukraine is also positioned as having a hybrid political regime. Despite positive developments in both the judiciary and the executive or legislative authorities, this rating has not changed since the events of Euromaidan in 2014.
Thus, not to get lost in this complex maze of D-D processes in Ukraine, we should use the analytical tool of a hybrid political regime. However, it is not enough to state that the democratization process in Ukraine continues in a hybrid political regime -- it is necessary to name the specific characteristics of this regime and, perhaps, at least immediate future thereof.
Hybridity of political regime itself is the result of relatively long-term development. The hybrid regime itself and its stability / effectiveness in the Ukrainian «young democracy» may be implied in so far as the country's society is ready for this. In principle, this form of governance is not bad or good. It is one of the outcomes of the processes inspired by the globalisation and geopolitical situation of a certain period of time and, in this case, of the present time.
A specific combination of formal and informal institutions (including competitive elections, but also the lack of the rule of law or the prevalence of informal politics in the political process) has proved to be quite a strong political construct in Ukraine. This hybrid regime was developed during the governance of L. Kuchma; it survived the Orange Revolution and the Euromaidan. The elite rather want to support dysfunctional institutions as the latter maintain and even increase the resources of the elite. As long as hybridisation, rather than democratization or authoritarianisation, prevails in the dynamics of the Ukrainian political regime, this hybridity will remain the state so wanted by the elite (Smirnova, 2017, p. 70).
In Ukraine, democracy failed to consolidate since the end of the Cold War. The «trap» between democracy and autocracy is the case of the «gray area,» i.e., such a situation or processes are expected to last only for a while and to end eventually with the consolidation of either democracy or autocracy. However, there are those who believe that hybrid political regimes are neither accidental nor short-time, but rather a new form of stable political regime. V. Laurenas associates the perspective of hybrid political regimes with the principal circumstances for the development of today's societies. «Social hybrids actually emerge in two principal circumstances: (1) Change is always a shorter or longer co-existence of past (existing) and new forms of life; (2) In order to temporalise this coexistence, given that the accel-erative societies «have no time» at all, a holistic change is being pursued. The proponents of such change, however, Indeed, tools to prevent and deal with the consequences of terrorism and epidemics alone leave democracy with the perspective of its procedural dimension, if the latter fail to limit a shift in conventional political participation towards protest, quite often, unconventional political participation. Thus, an inevitable count of population communication and mobility severely hinders the spread of democratic principles and implies mostly undemocratic or truly illiberal measures of the guardianship regime.
Meanwhile, T Kuzio (2005), who is representing a popular concept of hybrid political regimes as an unviable and, therefore, short-term link between the democratic and authoritarian rule, argues that there are the six following features of a hybrid regime in Ukraine, which are specifically attributed to both the years under Kuchma and to the little changed current reality:
* citizens of the state are not completely represented or their opinion (especially at the local government level) is partially ignored;
* low political activity, with the exception of participation in elections as an attribute of delegated democracy;
* frequent breaches of the rule of law or manipulation;
* election results do not seem legitimate in the eyes of citizens;
* low trust in state authorities;
* poor results in terms of state performance.
According to the EIU, in 2020, improving results of political pluralism were observed in Ukraine as one of the countries having a hybrid political regime. In 2019, the elections pointed to the higher standards of the electorate, greater fairness and transparency. In these terms, despite the fact that the country's political spectrum (pro-Western political wing, oligarchs, and pro-Russian political forces) remains largely unchanged and periodic elections at all levels of government prevent major emergencies of authoritarianism, the degree of hybridity in Ukraine itself can be concluded to have the preconditions for strengthening.
It should be emphasised once again that the hybridity of the Ukrainian political regime is the outcome of the resulting political, socio-economic, and geopolitical environment. Attempts to change the country's institutional system have been repeated multiple times, in particular, for the purposes of expanding the President's powers. The country has a parliamentary-presidential form of government. Attempts to establish a presidential form of government are associated with the monopolisation of power. Each time Viktor Yanukovych or, even earlier, Leonid Kuchma attempted to expand their powers, the parliament and population kept preventing it from happening. In 2018, Yulia Tymoshenko presented an idea of a parliamentary system with a strong prime minister which still stays an unfeasible project. This constitutes a difficult task due to competing elite groups and a lack of support from the society. While Ukraine's current model of governance is far from perfect, Ukrainians tend to have a divided executive authority that prevents the concentration of power. A form of governance in Ukraine changed six times (in 1991, 1995, 1996, 2004, 2010 and 2014), though, according to the surveyed experts, the regime changed only once. That means, there has been a transition from an authoritarian regime to a hybrid one, in which the political evolution of the country is taking place now.
The cases of other countries, Hungary and Poland, suggest that the so-called `gray area' between democracy and autocracy is expanding. In this context, EU membership does not deny the hybridity of the political regimes of Hungary and Poland, especially given that the EU itself has a democratic deficit. On the contrary, the survival of Hungary and Poland in the EU means not only the stability of a hybrid political regime, but also the entrenchment and legitimacy of it (Bozoki, Hegedus, 2018). So, with the increasing expansion of hybrid political regimes, they can be defined as a separate form which, in one case or another, given the economic, social, and political situation in a country, may be even more logical and effective than a «pure» democracy which fails to consolidate.
Conclusion
The processes of hybridization of post-democracy and political regime have not spared Ukraine. They used to be and still are influenced by certain consequences of post-communist (post-Soviet) transformation. More generally, post-democracy is a reaction to the disruption of democratization and the emergence of dedemocratization processes in the circumstances of democratic challenges. More specifically, the processes of democratization and de-democratization in Ukraine, like in other Eastern European countries with a similar historical background, run deeper, i. e., they stem from the post-communist (post-Soviet) environment.
We cannot say that the democratization and de-democratization processes in Ukraine are categorically denying each other; on the other hand, we lack arguments that the relationship between democratization and de-democratization is purposefully constructed and maintained in pursuance of better political governance in Ukraine. Opinions of the interviewed experts also distributed equally in favour of the relationship between D&D and D-D processes. The situation is rather similar to what is called the «gray area.» The above situation is validated by the first part of our hypotheses that the processes of democratization and de-democratization in Ukraine interact not only as the ones denying or eliminating each other, but also as complementing and restraining those extremes that hinder political stability and good governance. Ukraine is forced to limit the institutionalisation of a «full democracy» regime not only by its geopolitical situation and military conflict situation, but by other internal factors, too, first and foremost, by the potential and efforts of pro-Russian forces, which in many cases are pro-Soviet allies.
Therefore, our second hypothesis, i.e., the relationship between democratization and de-democratization processes in Ukraine is subject to both internal and external geopolitical situation and has features of a hybrid political regime, is as well validated in the first part only, while the second part needs to be revised. The revision should be as follows: the current hybrid political regime in Ukraine is not appropriate in view of the prospects for the country's faster development. Though Ukraine has a case of a hybrid political regime that is not appropriate for faster development of the state and society, an experience of Ukraine's separate neighbours, EU members, demonstrates that a historically contextual, appropriate case of a hybrid political regime is possible in the region provided that the actual political process and its effectiveness are not assessed solely by criteria of democracy, in particular, liberal democracy, the principles of democratic and undemocratic political governance are effectively applied, and a general pro-democratic orientation is respected.
So, the relationship between democratization and de-democratization processes in Ukraine is controversial and difficult to predict. The critical question remains: will a hybrid political regime enhance democratization processes or induce an authoritarian transition and undemocratic trends? The hybrid political regime in Ukraine is fragile due to the substantial and indivisible effect of internal and external determinants for both democratization and de-democratization processes, which are in a state of mutual struggle rather than restriction of extremes of each other that hinder political stability and good governance. The Ukrainian hybrid political regime is still far from the best form of governance; yet, as proponents of democratic values and principles, we need to build the relationship between democratization and de-democratization processes that would imply a pro-democratic development of a hybrid political regime in Ukraine. A political regime remains pro-democratic where, as C. Tilly argues, there is «integration of interpersonal trust networks into public politics,» «insulation of public politics from categorical inequality,» and «reduction of autonomous coercive power centers, with the consequences of increasing influence of ordinary people over public politics and rising control of public politics over state performance.» In such an environment, a political regime -- a state-citizen relationship -- becomes stable: the state and citizens consult, there is an increase in breadth, equality, protection of mutual binding, and the state-citizen trust networks.
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