Transformation of society and social values as economic categories
Analysis of rate of change in population both in the world and Ukraine, trends over the years by age. People's levels of income, economic growth forecasts, urbanization. The process of formation of social values. Stability of the institution of religion.
| Рубрика | Социология и обществознание |
| Вид | статья |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 09.01.2024 |
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Transformation of society and social values as economic categories
Volodymyr Nesterenko, PhD student, Sumy State University
Transformation of society and social values as economic categories
Volodymyr Nesterenko, PhD student, Sumy State University
The article summarizes approaches to the analysis of society and social values. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the transformation of society and social values as economic categories. The logical substantiation of the conclusions is carried out using the methods of economic and statistical analysis. The following indicators are analyzed: the rate of change in population both in the world and in Ukraine, trends over the years by age. People's levels of income, economic growth forecasts up to 2100, urbanization and others. Systematization of literature sources and approaches indicates that regardless of the existence of a certain array of scientific and theoretical developments, there is a need to study a range of tools for these categories, typical for both different countries of the world and Ukraine. The urgency of solving the scientific problem lies in the fact that there is currently no single model that would take into account all the factors (or at least most of them) that affect the transformation of society. But such a model would allow better planning for the future period.
The study of the issue of systematization and determination of prospects for the transformation of society in the article is carried out in the following logical sequence: characterization of approaches to this in the countries of the world and in Ukraine; formulation of prospects for development and use. Trends in the development of society, and with them the trends in the development of social values, on the one hand, act as generalizing categories, and on the other - affect the development and behavior of each member of this society. The contradictory and ambiguous assessment of changes taking place within society as a whole and within states require constant attention of theorists and practitioners to this object of research. The methodological tools of the study were the method of systematic approach, the method of trends, the selected period of research - 1950-2100 years. The object of the study is all countries of the world, the 25 largest countries in the world in terms of GDP, as well as Ukraine, since it is for these countries that the scientific analysis of the problem under study is presented, which has been formed at the present stage. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves the transformation of society and social values as economic categories. The tendencies are revealed. The results of the study can be useful for practical use by domestic business entities in the context of choosing optimal business development strategies in different countries (long-term planning), for scientists in the context of the development of scientific research and research of the current state of the problem under study.
Key words: social development, values, competitiveness, transformation of social values, dynamics.
Трансформація суспільства і суспільних цінностей як економічних категорій
Нестеренко Володимир Іванович, Сумський державний університет
Стаття узагальнює підходи стосовно аналізу суспільства і суспільних цінностей. Метою статті є обґрунтування трансформації суспільства та суспільних цінностей як економічних категорій. Логічне обґрунтування одержаних висновків здійснено за допомогою методів економіко-статистичного аналізу. Проаналізовані наступні показники: темпи зміни населення як у світі, так і в Україні, тренди по роках за віковими показниками. Рівень доходів людей, прогнози росту економік до 2100 року, урбанізація та інші. Систематизація літературних джерел та підходів засвідчила, що незважаючи на існування певного масиву наукових і теоретичних напрацювань, є потреба вивчення комплексу інструментів для даних категорії, характерних як для різних країн світу, так і для України.
Актуальність розв'язання наукової проблеми полягає в тому, що зараз відсутня єдина модель яка враховує всі фактори (або хоча б більшість), що впливають на трансформацію суспільства. А така модель дозволила б краще зробити планування на майбутній період. Дослідження питання систематизації та визначення перспектив трансформації суспільства в статті здійснено в наступній логічній послідовності: характеристика підходів стосовно в країнах світу та в Україні; формулювання перспективи розвитку та використання. Тенденції розвитку суспільства, а разом з ними й тенденції розвитку суспільних цінностей, з одного боку, виступають узагальнюючими категоріями, а з іншого - впливають на розвиток та поведінку кожного члена цього суспільства. Суперечливість та неоднозначність оцінки змін, що відбуваються всередині суспільства в цілому та в межах держав, вимагають постійної уваги теоретиків і практиків до цього об'єкта дослідження.
Методичним інструментарієм проведеного дослідження стали метод системного підходу, метод трендів, періодом дослідження обрано 1950-2100 роки. Об'єктом дослідження обрано як всі країни у світі, 25 найбільших країн світу по ВВП, а також Україну, оскільки саме за цими країнами представлені науковий аналіз досліджуваної проблематики, який сформувався на сучасному етапі. Дослідження емпірично підтверджує та теоретично обґрунтовує трансформацію суспільства та суспільних цінностей як економічних категорій. Результати проведеного дослідження можуть бути корисними для практичного застосування вітчизняними суб'єктами підприємництва в розрізі вибору оптимальних стратегій розвитку бізнесу в різних країнах (довготермінове планування), для науковців в контексті розвитку наукових пошуків та вивчення сучасного стану досліджуваного питання.
Ключові слова: суспільний розвиток, цінності, конкурентоспроможність, трансформація суспільних цінностей, динаміка.
Introduction
Many works even in modern theory are devoted to the study of society and social values, their mutual influence, evolutionary changes in them. Almost all scientists recognize the axiom that the main wealth of any state is still people. A person as a carrier of information forms the intellectual potential of the country, provides its competitive advantages in the international market. That is why any loss of human resources, regardless of the nature and specific reasons, both in quantitative and qualitative aspects, becomes not only a domestic political but also a geopolitical problem. These losses destabilize and weaken the country, become a threat to national security.
The existing system of theoretical approaches to defining the essence of human resources provides many definitions of this specific and most important type of economic resources. Human resources are employees who have professional skills and their knowledge can be used in the work process [11].
Literature review
The research of the quality of human resources is dedicated to the works of H. Becker, M. Bloug, and later - L. Turow, E. Ginenson, whose works are closely related to the development of the theory of human capital.
One of the most actual topics of modern researchers is a sharp decline in the birth rate. The works of J. Gallagher, N.O. Mazur, O.O. Kabylochna and others are devoted to this issue.
A number of works of both world and domestic scientists are devoted to the problems of population aging in the world.
A significant increase in the attention of theorists and practitioners to the relationship between demography and sustainable development was noted in the 70s of the last century, when the formation of demographic security of society as a separate area of scientific research began. A complete and detailed definition of demographic security is given by O.M. Perebiynos [10]: demographic security should be understood as a state of demographic development which, according to volume and structural indicators, will promote achieving higher quality reproduction of the population in the perspective, creating a predictable, controlled flow of the main demographic processes, providing such a combination of internal and external conditions in the country which would be the most favourable for demographic development.
Social values are a necessary component of society. Value in general means, firstly, the positive or negative significance of any object or phenomenon of reality, distracted from its existential and qualitative features (substantive values), and secondly, the normative (evaluative) side of the phenomena of public consciousness (subjective values).
In the semantic sense, the concept of "value" is close or even related to the concept of "significance" [16].
Value is one of the basic conceptual universals in the system of philosophical and humanitarian discourses. Values establish one of the possible limits of human socio-cultural activity. They are attributed to the extrapersonal, supra-personal, and sometimes extra-historical nature.
Most scientists argue about the need to find new approaches to regulating the transformation processes of modern society in order to eliminate negative factors and achieve a synergistic effect of positive changes.
The above review of scientific approaches to assessing the prospects of society and social values shows that these scientific categories do not lose their relevance and require further research.
In general, society is a community of people who have a fixed common territory, common cultural values and a common legal system. The main value of any society is human resources.
Assessment of human resources of a society, industry, territory or organization is the determination of quantitative and qualitative values of indicators that are selected to characterize human resources to a generalizing result. The main auxiliary features of the general concept of human resources are such concepts as population, labor resources, economically active population [11].
Population is a set of people living in a certain territory. It is the broadest concept that does not depend on any characteristics.
Labour resources are a part of the country's population whose physical and mental abilities and knowledge can be used in the national economy [19].
Labour resources include workers who can actually be employed in the economy of the country and the unemployed who temporarily cannot be employed for objective reasons.
Economically active population is the population of both genders aged 15-70 years, which for a certain period provides the supply of labor for the production of goods and services [17].
The object of the article is primarily the population.
Statistical observations show that the world population is steadily growing (Figure 1).
Figure 1. World population, million people: [12]
Population growth rates do not have stable dynamics. During the analyzed period, the highest population growth was observed in the period 1965-1970, when the world population increased by 16.7%. The lowest population growth was in the period 2015-2020, when the population increased by 1.7%.
The unevenness of world population growth is observed both in terms of time and in terms of parts of the world (Figure 2).
The highest population growth rates are observed in Africa, and the lowest - in Europe. Scientists believe that 99% of the projected population growth in the next 40 years will occur in countries that are classified as less developed - Africa, Asia (except Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
Population projections and scenarios are important planning and risk management tools for governments, companies, non-governmental organizations and individuals. Governments need short- and medium-term scenarios to assess the needs of schools, hospitals, and other public services; encourage investment in infrastructure with long-term benefits; plan for the necessary skills and knowledge for the future workforce; and invest wisely in resources for health research and development. Governments need long-term scenarios to understand potential environmental, military, geopolitical and other risks and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate them. Population scenarios are equally important for businesses that invest for long-term profits, such as the pharmaceutical industry and industries associated with heavy infrastructure projects [31].
If to consider the forecast values of the world population, then the opinions of scientists differ. Some of them believe that by 2100 the population will increase to about 11 billion people [12].
Figure 2. World population according to the parts of the world, million people: [12]
Figure 3. Population forecast according to the continents (1950-2100), million people: [32]
Other researchers note that by the end of the twentieth century, most countries of the world faced a population decline. In 23 countries of the world, if current trends continue, the population may be halved by 2100 [3].
Scientists predict that the world's population will peak by 2064 (9.7 billion), after which it will begin to decline and by the end of the century will amount to 8.8 billion people [3].
The determining indicator of these processes is the average number of children per woman. If this indicator falls below 2.1, the population begins to decline. In 1950, the world average level of this indicator was 4.7, and in 2017 - 2.4. According to the forecasts of a group of experts from the University of Washington in Seattle, in 2100 it will drop to 1.7 [3; 20].
Figure 4. Population of the Earth before 2100, people: [12]
The main reasons are that more and more women are choosing education and work, as well as easier access to contraceptives. Having fewer children is a woman's choice. In a sense, it is their success story [3].
Interesting conclusions follow from a study by the UN Department of economic and Social Affairs (Table 1).
Table 1 World Population
|
Year |
Population, persons |
Growth, % |
|
|
2025 |
8,187,482,626 |
5.00 % |
|
|
2030 |
8,553,090,972 |
4.47 % |
|
|
2035 |
8,894,594,868 |
3.99 % |
|
|
2040 |
9,212,224,932 |
3.57 % |
|
|
2045 |
9,506,070,389 |
3.19 % |
|
|
2050 |
9,773,651,653 |
2.81 % |
|
|
2055 |
10,012,946,343 |
2.45 % |
|
|
2060 |
10,224,315,824 |
2.11 % |
|
|
2065 |
10,411,449,013 |
1.83 % |
|
|
2070 |
10,577,408,925 |
1.59 % |
|
|
2075 |
10,723,432,838 |
1.38 % |
|
|
2080 |
10,850,084,849 |
1.18 % |
|
|
2085 |
10,958,838,946 |
1.00 % |
|
|
2090 |
11,051,228,331 |
0.84 % |
|
|
2095 |
11,127,099,242 |
0.69 % |
|
|
2100 |
11,185,333,718 |
0.52 % |
Source: compiled according to [8]
As of September 2022, the world's population is already 8 billion people [8].
The issue of social transformation is relevant for most countries of the world, and for some countries this issue is especially urgent. Ukraine belongs to the list of the latter. Today this issue is especially relevant, given the military actions on the territory of the country. The conflict in Donbas and Russia's military aggression have led to enormous human losses. It is not only about the dead. Many people left the country, i.e. went abroad. Scientists predict a decline in the birth rate, deterioration of the nation's health and reduction of life expectancy.
The total confirmed losses of the Ukrainian population as a result of the conflict by 2021 amounted to 1.1 million people. To this figure should be added the losses from the increased intensity of the transition of temporary external labour migration to a permanent form. Although this process began in Ukraine long before 2014, the number of external labour migrants who will not return to Ukraine is constantly growing due to the events in Donbas.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the industrially developed region (Donbas) has actually stopped working, and since 2016, a trade blockade has been in place against Donbas.
Many scientists believe that Ukraine has entered a protracted demographic crisis, which in duration and scale exceeds the previous ones [14; 10]. The main difference of the new demographic crisis is that in Ukraine there is not only a quantitative reduction of the population (Figure 3), but also a significant deterioration of its health, qualitative indicators of intellectual development and degradation of the gene pool.
The population of Ukraine will diminish due to the conflict with Russia. In particular, because the war leads to increased mortality, decreased birth rate and deterioration of health, in particular due to stress, untimely treatment and lack of access to quality medical care. Some of the evacuated women and children will settle abroad, establish their lives and never return to Ukraine. In addition, their husbands and parents will go to them as soon as such an opportunity arises. These may be options for the loss of 600 thousand to 5 million compatriots. There will be no baby boom in Ukraine after the war, as it was during the Second World War, mainly due to the development of contraceptives in the XXI century [15].
The wars that followed the baby booms ended in the middle of the last century. Then they lasted for years, couples were not close for a long time, men returned after a long absence, and women gave birth to as many children as possible. Nowadays, mostly those children are born whom their parents want. And parents are concerned not so much with the birth of children (more than 1-2 per family), but with their own lives - development, education, career, leisure, etc. [15].
Figure 5. Birth rate in the world, total (births per woman): [33]
In Ukraine, according to the World Bank, about 4.65 million people (about half of them children and 40 percent women) have become refugees in other countries. This refugee crisis is the most rapidly developing since the Second World War. About 7.14 million people have been displaced internally, and at least twice as many people are in need of vital humanitarian assistance [21].
Among internally displaced persons who cannot return to their places of permanent residence within five years, more than 80% do not return at all. These are the data of the analysis of the world experience [6].
Currently, the population of Ukraine is an approximate figure, as the only census for the years of independence was conducted in Ukraine in 2001.
Nowadays Ukraine is one of the largest donors of human resources for post-Soviet and European countries. The number of residence permits issued to our citizens for the first time in the EU is rapidly increasing: if in 2008 Ukrainians received 116 thousand such permits, in 2015 - almost 500 thousand [34].
In the world, the development of society is closely correlated with the development of social values, which are determined by various factors. The most important of them include: the gender and age structure of society, the gradation of society by income, religious affiliation and even the form of coexistence of individuals.
The primary importance of the gender and age structure of society is determined by the role of this factor in the formation of human potential and the viability of society as a whole.
Figure 6. Population of Ukraine, million people: [12]
The ratio of genders has been quite stable over the last 60 years (Table 2).
Table 2 Gender ratio of the world population, %
|
Sex |
1960 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
|
|
Men |
50.0 |
49.2 |
50.4 |
50.4 |
50.3 |
48.0 |
45.9 |
|
|
Women |
50.0 |
50.3 |
49.6 |
49.6 |
49.7 |
52.0 |
54.1 |
Source: compiled according to [12]
The share of men in the total population is gradually decreasing. Thus, if in the middle of the twentieth century the gender ratio was approximately the same, in 2020 the share of men was lower than that of women by more than 8 percentage points.
This situation is not the same in different parts of the world (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Share of men in the world population, %: [12]
An increase in the share of men in the total population is observed in Africa and, partly, in Europe. In other parts of the world, the share of men is decreasing.
The formation of social values is also influenced by the age structure of society. The age structure of the world society is shown in Table 3.
Table 3 Age structure of world society, %
|
Year |
Age group |
|||
|
0-14 |
15-64 |
65 and older |
||
|
1960 |
37.2 |
57.9 |
4.9 |
|
|
1965 |
37.9 |
57.0 |
5.1 |
|
|
1970 |
38.5 |
57.3 |
4.2 |
|
|
1975 |
36.8 |
57.5 |
5.7 |
|
|
1980 |
35.4 |
58.9 |
5.7 |
|
|
1985 |
33.7 |
60.5 |
5.8 |
|
|
1990 |
32.8 |
61.1 |
6.1 |
|
|
1995 |
32.7 |
60.7 |
6.6 |
|
|
2000 |
29.4 |
63.7 |
6.9 |
|
|
2005 |
27.8 |
64.9 |
7.3 |
|
|
2010 |
26.4 |
66.0 |
7.6 |
|
|
2015 |
26.0 |
65.7 |
8.3 |
|
|
2020 |
25.0 |
65.6 |
9.4 |
|
|
2025 |
23.9 |
65.5 |
10.6 |
|
|
2030 |
23.0 |
65.2 |
11.8 |
|
|
2035 |
22.0 |
64.9 |
13.1 |
|
|
2040 |
21.4 |
64.3 |
14.3 |
|
|
2045 |
20.9 |
63.9 |
15.2 |
|
|
2050 |
20.4 |
63.4 |
16.2 |
Source: compiled according to [12]
Currently, in the more developed regions of the world, more than a fifth of the population is 60 years and older, and by 2050 this age group is projected to include almost a third of the world's population. In less developed regions, the elderly make up 8% of the population, and by 2050 it is expected that the elderly will make up a fifth of the world's population [4].
According to other scientific studies, adolescents and youth now make up 16% of the world's population: from a minimum of 9% in Spain and 10% in Japan, Italy, Slovenia and Bulgaria to 24% in Micronesia and 23% in Lesotho and Swaziland. At the same time, their share is decreasing in all regions, and in some countries the number of 15-24-year-olds is decreasing even in absolute terms. By 2020, scientists predicted the largest absolute reduction in China (32 million), Vietnam (2.3 million), Russia (1.8 million), Iran (1.7 million) and the United States (1.4 million). The largest percentage reductions were observed in Armenia (25%), Moldova (24%) and Georgia (23%). Other significant cases include South Korea (15%), Cuba (8%), Germany (7%), the United Kingdom (6%), Japan (4%) and South Africa (3%) [9].
Analysis of the population structure by age group is important because children consume more food than they produce; they require a lot of resources for food, clothing, housing, health care and education, and are usually unemployed.
Adults, on the other hand, usually contribute more than they consume - both through work and through their savings, which contributes to capital accumulation. The net contribution of the elderly is usually somewhere in between. After reaching old age, people tend to work less and either save less or use their savings to finance their consumption after retirement [9].
In 1950, 8% of the world's population was older (i.e., aged 60 years and over). Since then, the share of older people in the world population has gradually increased to the current 12% - approximately 900 million people. However, now there is a dramatic change.
By 2050, approximately 2.1 billion people, or 22% of the world's population, will be over 60 years of age. The UN projects that the global median age will increase from about 28 years at present to 38 years by 2050, and the proportion of elderly people will increase in all countries except Niger.
At the same time, the average age of the Japanese population, which is 47 years, is the highest in the world and is projected to increase to 53 years by 2050. At the same time, by that time the median age in South Korea will be 54 years. In 2050, in 34 countries, the median age will be equal to or higher than the current 47 years in Japan. Now people aged 15-24 years are 32% more than people aged 60 years and older. But by 2026 the number of these two groups will be equal. After that, the number of people over 60 will quickly exceed the number of young people. This transition already took place in 1984 in developed economies and is projected for 2035 in less developed regions [4].
The increase in life expectancy has a significant impact on the change in social values (Figure 8).
The gradation of society by income has a significant impact on the formation of social values.
Figure 8. Life expectancy in the world and on continents: [30]
The income gap has always been inherent in society. But its sharp increase was noted in the XIX century, which was associated with the industrial revolution that took place in Western Europe.
The change in the differentiation of parts of the world by income of the inhabitants of the regions in this study is represented by the share of the population below the poverty line (Table 4).
Table 4 Share of population below the poverty line, %
|
Part of the world |
1960 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
|
|
Africa |
34.2 |
33.8 |
36.3 |
32.7 |
35.3 |
33.2 |
30.1 |
|
|
Australia |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
|
USA |
4.5 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
|
|
Asia |
9.5 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
9.4 |
8.2 |
7.3 |
7.1 |
|
|
Europe |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
|
|
World |
15.0 |
14.9 |
15.2 |
14.8 |
15.1 |
14.5 |
12.6 |
As an example, it should be noted that in the backward regions of Brazil, India and China, the poverty rate is at least twice as high as in the areas of these countries that are dynamically developing. More than two-thirds of the poor in developing countries live in rural areas. One billion citizens of the poorest and most isolated countries, located mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Central Asia, struggle to survive with less than 2% of the world's wealth.
Religion has a significant influence on the formation of social values, which accompanies all stages of society development and is formed and evolves together with society. Social values are formed in the process of interaction of religion with other social institutions (politics, economics, morality, culture, law, family).
The institution of religion remains the most stable. The main types of religions that exist in the modern world are shown in Figure 9 [8].
Evolutionary processes in the system of social values go in parallel with the evolution of forms of human coexistence. In the center of these processes is the family as a social institution, which involves all people on earth. It is the family that still performs a vital and global function of reproduction of the human race, as well as the function of meeting the most urgent needs of the individual.
Figure 9. Structure of the population in relation to world religions, %: [8]
Marriage as the most common (but not the only) basis for the emergence of a family in the modern world is changing. New forms appear, which, if they do not receive legislative consolidation, do not cause rejection in society.
Currently, researchers distinguish such forms of marriage as trial marriage, swinging, "open" marriage, visiting marriage, synergistic marriage (polygamy) and homosexual marriage. Each form of marriage will have certain social values.
Polygamy has two types: polygyny or multiple wives (marriage between one man and several women) and polyandry or multiple husbands (marriage between one woman and several men) [2].
Social values are a dynamic category. The main factors affecting their change are: rapid urbanization; climate change and resource scarcity; ecology and warming; changes in global economic power; demographic and social changes; technological trends; viruses like COVID-19, etc.
Accelerated urbanization of the population has a significant impact on changing social values (Figure 10).
One of the most negative consequences of the rapid urbanization of the world's population is slums, which are contrastingly manifested in large cities in many countries. It is noteworthy that in the poorest countries of the world the poverty level is generally higher outside the city than inside it.
Figure 10. Share of the urban population, %: [12]
On the other hand, urbanization has ceased to be an unambiguously negative fact of population development. Scientists note that no country has reached a high level of income without the growth of large cities.
The level of urbanization determines the amount of public goods that citizens receive. And this, in turn, affects the formation of social values, as social services are always a companion of urbanization.
An equally important problem of the world population, where the issues of demography and social values intersect, is to increase the availability of contraceptives. Among women aged 15 to 49 living with a male partner (married or unmarried), the overall rate of modern contraceptive use is 57%, with the main methods being female sterilization (used by 19% of women in this age group globally), intrauterine devices (14%), oral contraceptives (9%), male condoms (8%) and injectable contraceptives (5%).
Population growth rates do not have stable dynamics. During the analyzed period, the highest population growth was observed in the period 1965-1970, the lowest population growth - in the period 2015-2020. The unevenness of world population growth is observed both in terms of time and in terms of parts of the world. The highest population growth rates are observed in Africa, and the lowest - in Europe.
The share of men in the total population is gradually decreasing. This situation is different in different parts of the world. The increase in the share of men in the total population is observed in Africa and, partly, in Europe. In other parts of the world, the share of men is decreasing.
Analysis of changes in the age structure of the world's population showed that the share of the population "65 years and older" is gradually increasing. Over the past 60 years, this figure has increased by 4.5 percentage points.
A very important graph is the projected working-age population (aged 20-64) for the ten largest countries in 2017 under the baseline scenario (Figure 11). Huge declines in the number of workers are projected in China and India, and steady growth in Nigeria. By 2100, India is projected to have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China and the United States. In the baseline scenario, despite the fact that the fertility rate was below replacement level, immigration supported the US labor force [31].
Figure 11. Number of working-age adults aged 1950 to 2100 at baseline in the ten most populous countries in 2017: [31]
Figure 12. Ranking of the 25 largest economies in the world by total GDP in 2017 and under the baseline scenario in 2030, 2050 and 2100: [31]
Studies and projections of the working-age population in the total GDP scenario show the order of the 25 largest national economies in 2017, 2030, 2050 and 2100 in the baseline scenario (Figure 12). According to the projections, China came out on top in 2035 under the baseline scenario, but then it was again displaced by the United States in 2098, as population decline led to a slowdown in economic growth. Other countries that have risen in the world GDP ranking due to immigration are Australia and Israel. Despite the huge population decline projected for this century, Japan remains the fourth largest economy in 2100 [31].
population economic urbanization social
Conclusions
The article substantiates the transformation of society and social values as economic categories. The conclusions are obtained using the methods of economic and statistical analysis. The following indicators are analyzed: the rate of population change both in the world and in Ukraine, trends by age, income level, forecasts of economic growth until 2100, urbanization and others.
The world population will grow steadily until 2022. The unevenness of world population growth is noted both in terms of time and in terms of parts of the world.
The highest population growth rates are observed in Africa and the lowest in Europe. Over the next 40 years, most of the growth will occur in countries that are classified as less developed - Africa, Asia (except Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean.
Estimates show that the world population will peak by 2064 (9.7 billion), after which it will begin to decline and reach 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
The findings suggest that continued trends in women's education and access to contraception will accelerate birth rate decline and slow population growth. The low birth rates in many countries, including China and India, will have economic, social, environmental and geopolitical consequences. In the coming years, policy options to adapt to the persistence of low birth rates while preserving and improving women's reproductive health will be crucial.
Responding to persistently low birth rates is likely to be a major policy challenge in many countries, given the economic, social, environmental and geopolitical implications of low fertility.
Declining global population in the second half of the century is potentially good news for the global environment. Fewer people on the planet every year from now until 2100 will mean fewer carbon emissions, less pressure on global food systems, and less chance of overstretching planetary boundaries.
While this is good for the environment, population decline and the associated changes in age structure in many countries can have other profound and often negative consequences. Population is expected to decline by 50% or more in 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Spain and Ukraine.
The issue of social transformation is relevant for most countries of the world, and for Ukraine this issue is especially urgent. Due to Russia's war in Ukraine, both in 2014 and in 2022, millions of people became refugees in other countries. This refugee crisis is the most rapidly developing since the Second World War. More than 10 million people have been displaced internally and across borders, and at least twice as many are in need of vital humanitarian assistance.
Analysis of the population structure by age groups shows that the world's population is ageing. And while children consume more products than they produce, require a lot of resources for food, clothing, housing, health care and education, and usually do not work, adults, on the contrary, usually contribute more than they consume - both through their work and their savings, which contributes to capital accumulation. The net contribution of older people is usually somewhere in the middle. By 2050, older people are expected to make up one fifth of the world's population. Life expectancy is steadily increasing both globally and on each continent.
The percentage of the population living below the poverty line is constantly decreasing. The formation of social values takes place in the process of interaction of religion with other social institutions (politics, economics, morality, culture, law, family). The institution of religion remains the most stable. Rapid urbanization of the world's population continues.
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