Current trends in the dynamics of the demographic situation in Ukraine and in the Chernivtsi region, particularly for 2001-2021

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Bukovynian State Medical University

Department of Social Medicine and Public Health

Scientific and pedagogical work and international relations

Yuriy Fedkovich Chernivtsi National University

Department of physical rehabilitation, occupational therapy and pre-medical care

Current trends in the dynamics of the demographic situation in Ukraine and in the Chernivtsi region, particularly for 2001-2021

Domanchuk T.I., PhD Postgraduate,

Hrytsiuk M.I., MU Dr, Professor,

Chornenka Zh.A., PhD, Ass. Professor,

Mararash H.H., PhD, ass. Professor,

Sobko D.I., PhD, ass. professor

Chernivtsi

Abstract

The current process of declining birth rates is global and caused by economic, social and biological reasons: between 1970 and 2020, the birth rate decreased in all countries of the world. The main reason for the downward trend in the birth rate is the decrease in the need for children, which is probably due to changes in the economic, cultural, social and technological spheres of society. In developed countries, this process is accompanied by a decrease in the mortality rate and an increase in life expectancy. In Ukraine, the decrease in the birth rate to a crisis level is accompanied by an increase in mortality, which together causes a rapid depopulation.

The downward trend in the birth rate in Ukraine became more noticeable in the late 1970s and intensified in the 1990s due to the economic crisis, a sharp decline in the standard of living of the population, and uncertainty about the future. Today, the birth rate in Ukraine is such that less than half of the number required for population reproduction is provided.

The full-scale war and its negative consequences only exacerbated the demographic problems that had been accumulating for 30 years and by February 24, 2022 had already become a serious challenge for the Ukrainian state. According to estimates of the Council of the EU, as a result of the war, regardless of its duration, the population of Ukraine may decrease by 24-33%. This threat is confirmed by the fact that the number of people living and working in Ukraine is decreasing. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the population has decreased by 6.7 million people. In addition, the sex-age structure of Ukrainian society has changed: the share of young people under the age of 20 and the share of the population of working age have decreased. This leads to a narrowing of the demographic base for reproduction of the population of Ukraine.

Keywords: demographic situation, birth rate, mortality rate, modern trends

Анотація

Сучасні тенденції в динаміці демографічної ситуації в Україні та в Чернівецькій області зокрема за 2001-2021 рр.

Доманчук Т.І., PhD, асистент; Грицюк М.І., д.м.н., професор; Чорненька Ж.А., к.м.н., доцент; Марараш Г.Г., PhD, асистент; кафедри соціальної медицини та організації охорони здоров'я, Буковинський державний медичний університет, м. Чернівці

Собко Д.І., PhD, асистент кафедри фізичної реабілітації, ерготерапіі та домедичної допомоги, Чернівецький національний університет імені Юрія Федьковича, м. Чернівці

Сучасний процес зниження народжуваності є глобальним і зумовлений економічними, соціальними та біологічними причинами: у період з1970 по 2020 рік рівень народжуваності знизився в усіх країнах світу. Основною причиною тенденції до зниження народжуваності є зменшення потреби в дітях, що напевно зумовлено змінами в економічній, культурній, соціальній та технологічній сферах життя суспільства. У розвинених країнах цей процес супроводжується зниженням рівня смертності та збільшенням тривалості життя. В Україні ж зниження народжуваності до кризового рівня супроводжується зростанням смертності, що разом спричиняє стрімку депопуляцію. Тенденція до зниження народжуваності в Україні стала більш помітною наприкінці 1970-х років і посилилася в1990-х роках через економічну кризу, різке зниження рівня життя населення та невпевненість у завтрашньому дні.

На сьогоднішній день стан народжуваності в Україні такий, що забезпечується менше половини від кількості, необхідної для відтворення населення. Повномасштабна війна та її негативні наслідки лише загострили демографічні проблеми, які накопичувалися протягом 30 років і вже до 24 лютого 2022 року стали серйозним викликом для української держави. За оцінками Ради ЄС, внаслідок війни, незалежно від її тривалості, населення України може скоротитися на 24-33%. Ця загроза підтверджується тим, що кількість людей, які живуть і працюють в Україні, зменшується. З початку російського вторгнення населення скоротилося на 6,7 млн. осіб. Крім того, змінилася статево-вікова структура українського суспільства: зменшилася частка молоді віком до 20 років і частка населення працездатного віку. Це призводить до звуження демографічної бази для відтворення населення України.

Ключові слова: демографічна ситуація, народжуваність, смертність, сучасні тенденції

Formulation of the problem

Demographic trends are an important indicator of social development, which reflects the socio-economic and moral situation in the country and at the same time determines its long-term socio-economic and political structure. The key problem of the socio-economic development of Ukraine is a large- scale demographic crisis, which is characterized by a decrease in the birth rate, a high mortality rate, especially among the population of working age, increased migration and, as a result, a rapid decrease in the population. This problem becomes especially relevant in the conditions of globalization, when "countries with low demographic potential are doomed to the role of raw material and industrial appendages of developed economies that possess significant demographic resources" [1].

Analysis of recent research and publications. Analysis of recent research and publications shows that demography and its development is a natural object of attention and concern on the part of scientists, the public and politicians. E. Libanova, S. Pirozhkov, O. Gladun, I. Kurylo, N. Levchuk, V. Steshenko, O. Malinovska, P. Shevchuk, O. Petroi, A. Vyshnevsky, A. Zlotnikov, V. Borisovta and others [2-5] made a significant contribution to the study of various aspects of demographic development.

The aim of the study. The purpose of the work is to highlight the current state of the demographic situation in Ukraine and in the Chernivtsi region in particular, identify problems and determine the main ways to overcome the demographic crisis.

Presenting main material

After gaining independence, the demographic situation in Ukraine became complicated. It is affected by several negative factors: the decline in the birth rate, the aging of the population, the deterioration of the nation's health, economic instability in the country, as well as migration processes (more people leave the country than return). All this led to the fact that now Ukraine has about 10 million fewer permanent residents than it did in the first years of independence. According to the 2001 census, there were 48.5 million people in Ukraine, and 9.2 million in Bukovina [6]. As a result, the population of the state decreased gradually to 45.4 million in 2013, and then sharply to 42 .9 million in 2014, which was a consequence of the Russian Federation's occupation of Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, the population of Ukraine continued to decrease and reached 41.2 million in 2021[6], according to estimated data (since no more population censuses have been conducted since 2001 for various reasons).

After 2001, the population of Chernivtsi region initially decreased rapidly, but in 2007-2011 it was recorded at the level of 90.4-90.5 million people. Then there was some increase with a peak in 2014-2015 (91.0 million), which was also mainly a consequence of military events in the East and South of Ukraine and an increase in the corresponding migration of the population to other regions of the state. However, starting from 2016, the population of Bukovyna continued to decrease and as of 2021, it amounted to 89.0 million people.

The main features of the demographic situation in Ukraine and in the Chernivtsi region in particular are:

• low birth rate, which does not ensure simple replacement of generations;

• a high level of mortality, especially premature in men (probability of mortality in men of working age is about 38-40%);

• low average life expectancy (as of 2021 - 66.92 years for men and 76.98 years for women, which is less than the world average);

• gender disparity (as of 2021, there are 1,158 women per 1,000 men in Ukraine, and in the world this ratio is 0.99, in the EU countries - 1.052)

• long-term migration outflow of young people, which negatively affects both the population size and the birth rate of the population.

During 2001-2020, the structure of the population by gender did not change practically (Fig. 1). Both in Ukraine and in the region, the specific weight of women remained higher. Thus, in the state as a whole, this indicator was 54.0% in 2001 and 53.7% in 2020, and in the region - 53.0% and 52.9%, respectively.

Fig. 1. Changes in the composition of the population of Ukraine and Chernivtsi region by gender in 2001-2021